Generalist

Embodying Generalism. Geopolitics, Investing, Bitcoin, Human Rights, Arts, Personal Growth, Global Trends, Tech, Inner Harmony, Unexpected Ideas...

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Generalist@generalistlab.com

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Last Notes

2026-07-15 20:33:43 UTC

Took a new position today to bridge AI-energy.
Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente - Spanish solar PV utility, transforming to EU datacenter play $SLR. In at $18.4
Solaria owns private network, substations, 3GW of mostly solar PV power, that rapidly scales to 4GW.
EV= 3.9B
Typical datacenter regions Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris, Dublin - are grid and space constrained.
Spain and Solaria wins here. Peninsula well connected to inter-atlantic cables, while regulations allow for direct plug and play, circumventing grid connection queues
Last year, first deal of its kind inked w/ Merlin.
They invest aggressively into scaling + BESS (batteries) at every solar park, to increase margins, availability. Based on their presentation BESS payback time is ~3 years.
Balance sheet considerably levered x5 net debt/EBITDA, incl. IFRS 16 land lease.
However they have strengthened balance sheet after Q1, raising 300M at 24€ (~10% share capital increase; of which 3.85% sold treasury shares)
Technically risky, but potential reversal forming.
In 26'Q1 call, CEO Arturo was clearly holding back good news on assets monetization, deals for capital markets day sometime in H2.
Here's the taste in transcript screenshot.
Thanks to @origoinvest for idea!
https://npub15l8fm0fl462an4w24qh7u5a4v6cj0d8gcsvaxk0tyuyxdrtxem3sn70ar3.blossom.band/1abdf08f690ac925ea29b9f49dad5d235cfdbf3e7b348d025301983326642e98.png
https://npub15l8fm0fl462an4w24qh7u5a4v6cj0d8gcsvaxk0tyuyxdrtxem3sn70ar3.blossom.band/1d94998a813cfda55ef0812b584990c37bb3079fa0a4c490b4a91bff79a0a884.png

2026-05-07 21:32:25 UTC

Block spent 636M to repurchase 10.7M shares during 2026 Q1. That's -5% of shares outstanding YoY.
Remaining authorization: $4.7 Billion (!)
Finally $XYZ. Finally.

2026-05-07 19:50:58 UTC

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HHvZ8NQXwAMEpj3?format=png&name=900x900
Recent moves:
-Add new position $NRXS at avg cost $8.18 Borrowed conviction from microcap world.
-Increased $VAR by ~12% at 43.47 NOK. Structurally higher oil prices 1-2yrs out, regardless of Strait outcome; sufficient dividend yield to weather even worse entries before
-Irresponsibly and impulsively increased $NET by ~11% near ATH today before earnings. Recent earnings by $DOCN $DDOG $TWLO gave confidence we will see another quarter of revenue acceleration, which is always appreciated by market. Clear beneficiary of #AI; keeps expanding TAM

2026-03-26 20:01:16 UTC

Brain rot in those rooms is infectious.
RUBIO: HORMUZ COULD BE OPENED TOMORROW IF IRAN ALLOWED IT

2026-03-26 19:34:52 UTC

TURKEY’S CENTRAL BANK GOLD RESERVES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP SINCE AUG 2018, SELL ABOUT 22 TONNES LAST WEEK: BANKERS

2026-03-25 10:53:04 UTC

Reliance Jio is set to file for approval of its IPO in Mumbai as early as this week
IPO is being structured as an offer-for-sale, a common strategy in India where no new funds are raised by ⁠the companies and existing shareholders offload stakes.
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/reliance-jio-woos-investors-sell-8-individual-stakes-ipo-sources-say-2026-03-25/

2026-03-24 17:36:01 UTC

NYT:
"Breaking News: Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia pushed President Trump to continue the war against Iran, people briefed on the conversations said."
Emile Hokayem:
"Two major risks for the Gulf states if they join the campaign (as opposed to just telling the US to continue and ‘finish the job’):
- unhinged Iranian retaliation;
- one or more Gulf states go in and then the US pulls out, leaving them in the cold.
My thinking:
US pulls out - GCC countries capital pulls out. And orange dictator likes market in green.
So while foreign policy is for sale, trump will likely to continue to sacrifice young men to death to fight corrupt wars for highest bidders.

2026-03-21 11:13:35 UTC

You would think trump would lash out on GCC countries for not putting effort in opening the strait. They have been a silent punching bag for 3 weeks straight. They do have a minor interest, don't they?
White house, media silent. Not what the ruzzian script says. #iran #trump

2026-03-20 20:23:38 UTC

There's a non zero chance Trump regime will fall before Iranian. Would be extremely ironic.
The list of Epstein War supporters, given its now known outcomes, is pretty short:
-Israel
-russia
-Viktor Joban (where's Serbian Vucic btw?)
-fanatics and brainwashed US populace.
#Iran

2026-03-20 19:58:40 UTC

On market days like these, I like to scour through my watch list and look for negligible or even positive daily change names. This is shows what market perceives as valuation floor at current fear level. Multiple similar days compounds conviction of market's perception.

2026-03-20 13:38:33 UTC

Mural "Make Everything Great Again" by Lithuanian artists dates back to 2016, nearly a decade ago.
#trump #putin https://image.nostr.build/8262ff197139d351777e6fadc3df17596ac3a84d38718057373cc014f587a6af.jpg

2026-03-19 14:07:34 UTC

According to QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi, Iran’s attack on the Ras Laffan Indistrial City damaged facilities that produce 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity. The statement was made in an interview with Reuters. The damages are expected to take 2-3 years to repair fully.

2026-03-18 22:48:29 UTC

GCC countries should be having an existential crisis right now.
-house US military bases, assets
-recycle some oil income to US based military complex
-stability
-toddler w/ his ships comes, fucks up everything, jeopardizes cash flows, requires defending his bases..

2026-03-14 16:48:51 UTC

This week:
-sold $AMZN entirely at $212.7, taking -6.2% loss (-12.2% CAGR)
-sold $MDARA at +20.8% profit (+58.9% CAGR)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HDYnaUMWMAAdgq3?format=png&name=900x900
due to higher Amazon weighting, only marginal profit from both transactions. Generally - increasing cash; but couple of words specific to these stocks below
I'm surprised at market resilience given geopolitical backdrop. Friday closed at 200MA for S&P500. Trump will likely claim victory as market expects after couple of panicky days below 200MA. US 4Q GDP in contraction after inflation. GDP hangs on datacenters
because nobody in their right mind won't put a dollar on US soil, given how quickly business environment is changed by pedophiles.
Amazon keeps tapping debt markets. I got 0 FED cuts expectation for rest of 26'. FCF not existent, no/reduced buybacks will weight w/ dilution..
And recent headlines regarding $AMZN pushing employees to use inferior internal tool vs Claude, pushing some internal KPIs over overall execution doesn't taste well.
There's support waiting at ~$191. Maybe.. maybe not.
Any turn for risk apetite in market would be captured by higher beta underwater $ALAB.
Now Madara Cosmetics (Riga Stock Exchange) - I have doubts they will propose dividend. Net income for 25' was negative. Margins improving, but guidance for 26' was conservative. 10% revenue growth and "maintaining a double-digit EBITDA margin". Given these assumptions and increased Baltic inflation expectations, don't see much upside. Technical entry, on highly illiquid stock, still worked.
I also wanted to cut $NET a little more, but was busy w/ work, was late couple of minutes, market closed on me. 10Y yield was climbing recently, overall market vulnerable, yet Cloudflare was having a blast for past ~10sessions. Not for long imo.

2026-03-11 15:14:18 UTC

TRUMP TELLS AXIOS IRAN WAR WILL END SOON, "ANY TIME I WANT IT TO END, IT WILL END"
Problem is: Iran won't.

2026-03-10 17:14:44 UTC

Reduced $NET position by 10% at ~$202.5 today. FIFO profit: +168, CAGR: +23.9%. (2020, 2022 purchases..)
With that, I've normalized Cloudflare weight in portfolio to 22%. Normally I would balance <20%, but they are a clear winner.
And I don't get market optimism today btw.

2026-03-06 17:16:15 UTC

Recent portfolio moves
-Increased APG1L at €3.65
-Entered $EQNR 308.3 NOK
-Increased $CME at $318
-Increased $OMDA
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HCvhj2PWEAQP9qm?format=png&name=900x900
Couple of words on each below.
Entered into "investment" account few months ago, where you don't get taxed on each sale, this gets long term bias and price insensitivity. $APG1L is still a 5.6 ev/ebitda on TTM basis. I want to capture dividends and exit in H2. Im short on ideas in Europe, primarily looking at OMXB and here too - very little to choose from with stable/positive outlook.
I have tired of watching it go up every single day and Iran ain't helping. Broad market is thinking is short-term distraction (Epstein, slow labor market, corruption, you name it).
IMO interceptors finish first before Shaheds do, then infra really takes starting hits.
$EQNR has excellent governance, low cost of production, and very nice returns to shareholders. in 2025 shares outstanding decreased by ~9%. Any excess cashflows from higher oil fall to increase 4%+ dividend and Reliance was not acting the way I wanted.
I also increased my confidence in $CME. Very much so, actually. In casino the house always wins. Precious metals, oil, natural gas futures. Q1 will be record breaking. Moat on own clearing house. Increasing retail volumes and data business. Tailwinds all around from chaos.
Increased my tracker position in $OMDA, fabulous quarter report. GAAP profitability, 53% growth, expanding gross margins.
Any sentiment change should put this $20+ pretty rapidly imo.

2026-03-01 12:42:02 UTC

"Fiction is a lie... but Good Fiction is the truth inside a lie" - Stephen King

2026-02-19 20:07:29 UTC

Portfolio actions today.
AKO1L confirmed my suspicions about weakening outlook. Basically no profit in Q2. However, CFO today reminded, that QoQ comps can be misleading. They hold quite a lot of inventory in hopes to sell at higher prices in FY H2.
Reduced further by 33%, locking FIFO +61.8% profit at +25.2% CAGR
Increased VLP1L by 50% <€12.2. No expectations on Q4, simply maintaining exposure to OMXB. Focus on dividends, expecting continued management execution turning around MPK, ramping Bauska plant, core business.
And finally, increased $FIGR once again (still a tiny position though). 100%+ revenue growth YoY suits me well. Will be looking for earnings call and diluted share count next week.

2026-02-18 22:43:21 UTC

Don't follow LLM research and development closely, but today it's first time Im hearing OAI talk aboit prompt caching.
Imo, one of those techniques, that has a step change in efficiency.
#AI

2026-02-18 17:55:48 UTC

Comparing 2025 vs 2024 $CDNS:
-Revenue +14.1%
-Backlog 7.8B (+14.7%)
-GAAP EPS +5.4%
-OPM -90bps
-Headcount +8.6%
-SBC +16.3%
China revenue share (21'-25'):
13%->15%->17%->12%->13%
That SBC really weighing down on stock.

2026-02-16 17:34:50 UTC

Marginally reduced $NET at $199.09 last week. Locked 166.3% profit, or 20.8% CAGR based on FIFO. Still holding more than I want to currently. Successfully captured market spread between recent buy and this sale of ~$30.

2026-02-10 22:08:46 UTC

$ALAB down AH on Q4 92% YoY growth
My guess: weak lower end guidance for QoQ growth of 5.7%. Upper bound of 9.8% - same as 2025 Q2. So they are giving more room. Will listen to call next wk..
Overall, market reaction mirrors that of hyperscalers - caution. Multiple compression

2026-02-10 21:41:27 UTC

Cloudflare 2025 revenue growth YoY:
Q1: 27%
Q2: 28%
Q3: 31%
Q4: 34%
Last week posed a question. Which SaaS stocks will benefit, which models are threatened by AI. $NET answers.

2026-02-09 17:40:18 UTC

BOND INVESTORS COULD TURN ON AI COMPANIES
Bond markets may grow impatient with AI firms if their massive investments don’t generate clear returns, warns Michel Saugne, CIO at La Financiere de l’Echiquier.
Investors will expect companies to prove they can monetize AI spending, or risk skepticism as they raise debt to fund growth. Saugne likens it to selling “picks and shovels” in a gold rush—you need proof there’s gold to be found.
They could, but not today.
$GOOG 15B bond issue attracted 100B investor interest.
#AI

2026-02-09 11:05:55 UTC

Active last week. Outlined actions taken on:
SFG1T, APG1L, $NET, $FIGR, $MU, Robur Corp. Bond Nordic (Fund)
https://www.generalistlab.com/insights/finance/portfolio/portfolio-moves-2026-week-6/

2026-02-07 21:16:48 UTC

Agree with Gerstner. Years ago you could buy $CRM at 35 FCFs, you knew what you were getting. AI brings fog around the real discount rate and you get a correction in SaaS. Market wants to see winners (acceleration) and losers (deterioration).
One thing is clear though .. every vibe or not coded app is going to need an infra. $DOCN is SaaS too, where was it's dip this week? Non deterministic behavior - backups, snapshots - all infra.

2026-02-06 22:11:41 UTC

My hurdle for artificial general intelligence:
-sustained profitability in market
-fix plumbing
#AI

2026-02-06 22:11:14 UTC

Made some movements in portfolio this week. Hopefully will find time on Sunday to write a short blogpost.

2026-02-05 21:36:18 UTC

24% AWS growth in Q4 - fastest in past 13 quarters and staggering 200B capex guide for 2026, toping yesterday's 185B $GOOG guide.
$AMZN
https://image.nostr.build/af29648b93054a1b43e21d9704e5784ef4191825b06f338d9a196120a0906330.jpg

2026-02-04 11:22:20 UTC

"At the beginning of WWII, for example, an estimated 70% of Germans looked favorably on Hitler. By the end of the war, interviewers had a hard time finding a single person who admitted to ever favoring the Nazis" - Bill Bonner

2026-02-04 07:58:58 UTC

TRUMP: FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD GET INVOLVED IN ELECTIONS
Gold to 10k..

2026-02-03 19:49:45 UTC

Utiliies guy:
"but it makes more sense to pay someone else not to run their chemical company, the refinery company, for 40 50 hours a year, rather than have the utilities go out and spend $10 billion connecting far away wind farms"
Revenue not to run your business, imagine that.

2026-01-31 07:22:41 UTC

TRUMP PLANS TO NOMINATE BRETT MATSUMOTO TO HEAD BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, SOURCES SAY
New BLS pick Brett Matsumoto seen as more conventional, apolitical appointment.
BLS data *could* be seen as more real going forward.
#US #BLS

2026-01-29 22:02:29 UTC

Rittenhouse Reaearch:
"So Microsoft $MSFT has 450 million paid 365 Commercial Seats and only 15 million paid 365 Copilot seats, implying 3% penetration for Copilot..
Not quite sure if this is bullish because of how much runway there is to upsell Copilot to the existing base of 450MM users.. Or bearish because it shows how bad their copilot offering is, lol."
Two things answer the riddle:
-comments under Satya's twitter financials release thread
-$MSFT stock performance

2026-01-29 12:48:07 UTC

That's the chart that scares $MSFT investors. ~45% of RPO is from OpenAI.
Essentially market doesn't think OpenAI will .. pay, to say it softly.
https://image.nostr.build/2ee609642ec81712d7a786f8a50131a09ebf33df50a666cf66a35559d9039081.jpg

2026-01-29 07:24:17 UTC

Semi capex continues unabated.
META SEES 2026 CAPEX $115B TO $135B, EST. $110.62B

2026-01-27 14:18:32 UTC

“market opportunity is substantially larger than we initially anticipated [..]. We're accelerating our development efforts across the Scorpio X-Series to serve this expanded opportunity and deliver the purpose-built solutions the market demands”
Music to shareholders ears
#ALAB

2026-01-26 16:58:00 UTC

Recent portfolio moves:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G_mhuQUWMAQPIX9?format=png&name=900x900
1. sold remainder $CNDS position acquired in 2020 Sep at $315.50; +216.4% profit and +24% CAGR
I either had to liquidate or increase size. China revenue share has increased to 18%. Its a matter of time for a next us-china trade dispute, where semi export controls is front and center each time and $SNPS, $CDNS are suffering. Since Lip Bu Tan left for Intel, EPS growth also stalled, as did the stock.
2. Opened two tracker positions in $OMDA ($15.06 entry), $FIGR (entry $63.12).
Healthcare is not my cup of tea, but I'll evaluate potential newsletter subscription off the outcome on OMDA. Can't force my interest w/o skin in the game
Figure - tokenization, cost savings in monetizing real esate equity, huge, unpenetrated TAM, high profitable growth story. Watchlist time have cost me, but had to find time to dig into materials a little bit more. Besides, crypto legislation could be another catalyst.
And finally entered into $CME at $282. Proxy play on volatility, retail activity, metals while US becomes banana republic. $CME had long held monopoly on yields futures market - $BGC (also looking into) is gaining share, but when serious volatility comes, $CME is still the place for deep liquidity. Recent news all point to record trading volumes. Low beta; valuation not demanding.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G_mqMx9W8AcI2aR?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G_mrPIoWIAAI_LA?format=jpg&name=large

2026-01-22 22:02:59 UTC

Sold $INTC after hours at $50.32 (+35.6% profit in a little over month long holding).
Disappointed in GM, but recent run up had gotten ahead too much. At $57 would had sold purely on technicals.
Will be seeking reentry lower.

2026-01-22 18:35:40 UTC

My understanding is that Trump 5B lawsuit against JPM and Jamie Dimon is direct response to Dimon's Davos talk.
https://youtu.be/hnLTD4D4wxY

2026-01-21 20:00:06 UTC

TRUMP: WILL NOT IMPOSE FEB 1 TARIFFS DUE TO GREENLAND DEAL
President Trump said a productive meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte created a framework for a future deal on Greenland and the Arctic that would benefit the U.S. and NATO. As a result, he will not impose tariffs scheduled for February 1.
Further talks are underway on the “Golden Dome” and Greenland. Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff will lead negotiations and report directly to Trump.
Framework has been confirmed twice: any excessive white house retardation is tamed by threat to UST yields.
#taco

2026-01-21 19:37:45 UTC

EU'S KALLAS: EU WILL MOVE FORWARD ON A SECURITY AND DEFENCE PARTNERSHIP WITH INDIA
That's a new one.

2026-01-19 00:07:21 UTC

AI capex financing - not a bubble. KKR slides.
#ai
https://image.nostr.build/d3ae8702ab4e94d05c8e9701a8a93e453e01474ff735e3fff18cd62ddd818064.jpg https://image.nostr.build/42514fd1047f39d5db2684ae22499efe7b2515a0867ebcca04fb8ed459101ee0.jpg

2026-01-18 22:57:19 UTC

First sights of fees on consumer laziness.
#AI #ecommerce https://image.nostr.build/56b209f33a5c7067036eb2513d0baf51fbab69d83a6248d3d0ba1bbbfa006f29.jpg

2026-01-18 21:43:54 UTC

From OpenAI blog:
"Compute is the scarcest resource in AI"
https://openai.com/index/a-business-that-scales-with-the-value-of-intelligence/
https://image.nostr.build/28f66d3983dd3ff5a13d58a34651e17b0aa750e96572b42b7d9eac4475c69554.jpg https://image.nostr.build/425f99456e57a217483769fe1cb96553f2225e327ce12e088afbef2a631dcf1b.jpg

2026-01-15 22:03:17 UTC

Astera Labs $ALAB CEO:
"Everybody who's deploying these AI systems is saying that, hey, there is ROI. They are getting returns on their investment. So - and we see that translated into our order pattern as well. So we don't see any evidence of a slowdown in 2026 or in 2027."

2026-01-13 20:59:30 UTC

By the way, here's a great review of Metas AI efforts and how Zuck decided it was a great idea to put yes man insteadof ML industry veteran in charge of AI efforts.
https://youtu.be/lj_PDjfYIO0
$META

2026-01-13 20:35:10 UTC

KeyBanc Upgrades $INTC to Overweight from Sector Weight, PT $60
Analyst comments: "We expect outsized data center demand from hyperscalers this year to be a significant tailwind for Data Center and AI. Our checks indicate INTC is almost sold out for the year in server CPU, and given the strength in demand, the company is considering a 10-15% ASP increase. We are seeing significant progress being made on foundry with 18A yields improving to over 60% and good enough to ramp Panther Lake. While not best in class, as TSMC was at 70-80% when it launched 2nm, with INTC’s aspirations of being the #2 foundry supplier, 60%+ yield is significantly better than SF2 at Samsung Foundry, which we believe is less than 40%. Our checks indicate Intel Foundry Services has landed Apple as a customer on 18A for low-end M-series processors for MacBooks and iPads, which is expected to go into production in 2027. Additionally, we believe INTC is in discussions with Apple to use 14A to support low-end mobile A-series processors for iPhones in 2029."

2026-01-12 19:37:06 UTC

$META - ZUCKERBERG ANNOUNCED NEW TOP-LEVEL INITIATIVE, META COMPUTE
Aaand another shift, from mark. Seems, ai capex will follow a metaverse returns trajectory, but if you rent your compute, maaaybe you could squeeze your nose into hyperscalers yard.

2026-01-09 21:28:40 UTC

Lovely. Top propagandists on twitter. https://image.nostr.build/7ecbd38869afbdd8a1d9290e38a2cfa19e358785a3526a8573c56d21562a5ccb.jpg

2026-01-03 19:54:54 UTC

Annual portfolio overview. US Positions discussed:
$XYZ, $NET, $APPS, $INTC, $CDNS, $AMZN, $ALAB, $KSPI (+elevator pitch)
Other: $RIGD, AKO1L, VLP1L, EWA1L, SFG1T, MDARA
Also comments on painful loss exits: $IAC, $EVO and US, Baltic market outlooks.
https://www.generalistlab.com/insights/finance/annual-portfolio-overview-2026/
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G9w3hpaXAAAFMjK?format=png&name=900x900

2025-12-31 16:03:13 UTC

As Marley said, In 2026 light up the darkness, people. Have a good one.

2025-12-29 14:43:57 UTC

Facebook buys AI scientists, China buys ex-ASML employees...
Semi companies' China revenues are not sustainable.
$ASML #Semi
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manhattan-project-rival-west-ai-chips-2025-12-17/

2025-12-28 10:44:28 UTC

How it started and how it's going.
https://www.generalistlab.com/insights/why-i-started-generalistlab/

2025-12-22 10:17:43 UTC

Lots portfolio moves in past 2 weeks, after a break, will write annual portfolio review getting into more detail soon. Stay tuned. For now, in short:
-Sold 12.5% AKO1L at €1.8
-Bought back $INTC at $37.1
-Add $KSPI at $79
-Bought Nordic Corp Bond Fund,~5%
-Sold $EVO at 622 SEK

2025-12-18 12:41:48 UTC

Dallas FED survey on oil market.
https://dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2025/2504#tab-comments
"I have an uneasy feeling about the reason that China continues to stockpile crude oil to the tune of about a million barrels per day. Could it be a prelude to an invasion of Taiwan?"
Same brother, same.

2025-12-17 16:22:02 UTC

Madara Cosmetics $MDARA management said they have something exciting to announce in H1 webinar I assumed it was new markets.
b2b subscription based service for hotels was not in my bingo card. Interesting if they get traction in this segment, but gotta compliment the move.
https://image.nostr.build/f67213b6512b57373f6fc00ccff4add2aefe71735a00040592600a6038633374.jpg

2025-12-17 16:18:37 UTC

Annual Nasdaq-100 index ($NDX) changes.
Added:
-Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ($ALNY)
-Ferrovial SE ($FER)
-Insmed Incorporated ($INSM)
-Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. ($MPWR)
-Seagate Technology Holdings plc ($STX)
-Western Digital Corp. ($WDC)
Removed:
-Biogen Inc. ($BIIB)
-CDW Corporation ($CDW)
-GlobalFoundries Inc. ($GFS)
-Lululemon Athletica Inc. ($LULU)
-ON Semiconductor Corporation ($ON)
-The Trade Desk, Inc. ($TTD).

2025-12-14 13:14:59 UTC

- reply

This is the most bizzare thing I dont get about murica. Why would you call your kid "dick"?

2025-12-14 13:13:21 UTC

Radio Paradise served this wonderful cover of one of most recognizable Tears of Fears songs "Head over Heels" by Japanese Breakfast. New indie artist for me. Way more collected, chill version.
https://npub15l8fm0fl462an4w24qh7u5a4v6cj0d8gcsvaxk0tyuyxdrtxem3sn70ar3.blossom.band/5e5320aacdac2e2f1eda8cadb6267c64e793be66744c1a4bc4505839b27807c6.jpg
https://youtu.be/s6QbIcpqrRM
#GLMusicDiscovery #indie

2025-12-12 22:08:22 UTC

Glassnode:
The aggregated size of Bitcoin treasuries held by public and private companies has grown from 197K BTC to 1.08M BTC, a ~448% increase since January 2023.
Corporate balance sheets are becoming an increasingly significant pillar of demand for BTC.
Price is noise.
https://image.nostr.build/451f7d796b1468f07c482b7b26c4735839cc9f532d03c95453d5ffccd5ed0052.jpg

2025-12-11 14:04:55 UTC

Occasionally visit Clouded Judgement for newest stats, comps, but title on this one caught my eye.
Startup space getting irrational on compensation expectations. All in the space of that 1% w/ purcashing power.
https://cloudedjudgement.substack.com/p/clouded-judgement-12525-monopoly

2025-12-10 22:28:06 UTC

“In three words I can sum up everything I’ve learned about life: It goes on.” - Robert Frost
https://image.nostr.build/906d2055b17538bece6efcd5eff726aeace704b72643ab38a0a0ecbce3fa1169.jpg

2025-12-10 22:07:40 UTC

Captions by Allesio
https://image.nostr.build/5cd67dee6f90c4298ed557c4e9ae6604700d7de1010f8928acc73c9fbd045bb3.jpg

2025-12-10 20:00:00 UTC

US INTEREST RATE FUTURES PRICE IN 78% CHANCE OF PAUSE IN JANUARY MEETING VS 70% BEFORE FED RATE CUT -LSEG
FUTURES IMPLY TRADERS SEE FED POLICY RATE AT 3.1% AT END-2026 AFTER FED RATE CUT, LITTLE CHANGED FROM LEVELS JUST BEFORE -LSEG
Assuming traders still price independent FED for next year. Mistake imo.
QE starts in 2 days. My outlook: party on into year end, volatility starts Q1 w/ bootlicker Hasset as FED chair:
-Rates down
-10Y up
-Gold up
-Stocks up
-Dollar down

2025-12-04 14:11:31 UTC

META’S ZUCKERBERG PLANS UP TO 30% CUTS FOR METAVERSE EFFORTS
They should also change the name to reflect the recent "focus" and capex.
#facebook

2025-12-03 22:33:43 UTC

- reply

Ai's care, and by extension everyone else.

2025-12-03 22:26:12 UTC

26'Q1 shaping up to be more volatile. Cuts vs renewed US dollar (fed independence) credibility.
Whitehouse sketching plans to veto FED presidents, vigilantes warning about Hasset doing Trump's bidding (duh).
#FED #SP500

2025-12-03 19:35:06 UTC

Wiki founder Wales:
"level of trust in Musk is extremely low, because he says wild things all the time. When he attacks us, people donate more money[..]. That's not my favorite way of raising money, but the truth is a lot of people are responding very negatively to that behavior"

2025-12-02 22:29:10 UTC

Trump Accounts to start July 4 next year
United States President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that the so-called Trump Accounts, the investment accounts for children under 18, will become available from July 4 next year.
Block mentioned in Investor day they are working with trump administration on this.
$XYZ

2025-12-02 19:56:23 UTC

Increased $ALAB at $146.09, on Amazon Trainium + NVLink scare. Also announced today: "Astera Labs Expands Connectivity Portfolio with Custom Solution"
From recent calls, they have 26' revenue pretty much locked in; any product roadmaps drive 27-28' imo.
https://asteralabs.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/astera-labs-expands-connectivity-portfolio-custom-solutions

2025-11-29 11:48:22 UTC

Silvano Fashion Group (SFG1T) reported Q3 in last allowed minute. Fucking Corporate Governance.
All shit, except:
Market Cap: 41.4M
Cash & Term Deposits: 45.4M
Cash flow positive, 20% net profit margin on slowly contracting revenues
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G664A_AX0AAICnR?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G664y9WWAAAQetB?format=png&name=small

2025-11-26 21:43:32 UTC

Long overdue:
EU PARLIAMENT AGREES ON RESOLUTION CALLING FOR SOCIAL MEDIA MINIMUM AGES

2025-11-26 07:36:32 UTC

Eurostat:
Between 2004 and 2024, household real income per capita in the EU grew by 22%.📈🏡
Largest growth in household real income per capita in:
🇷🇴Romania (134%)
🇱🇹Lithuania (95%)
🇬🇷Greece and 🇮🇹Italy registered decreases (-5% and -4%, respectively).
https://image.nostr.build/52e803546cc181ec25b7ab619a5d2ba5a0597f7da170ed295d5ce7ba97da03b5.jpg

2025-11-23 17:22:48 UTC

US vs China Energy generation capacity and annual generation. Overwhelming.
From Bridgewater associates letter.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G6dLrXuXUAEapYI?format=jpg&name=medium

2025-11-23 13:53:02 UTC

German writer Eduard Fuchs trashing US press in 1912 (!)
"We will note that the sensational and gossip press is all without exception "very loyal and patriotic." It is usually the more patriotic the more disgusting it is in order to gain the confidence of the authorities. Nowadays there are gossip newspapers in all the major cities of the world, and in America the whole press is like that."

2025-11-23 10:08:55 UTC

TRUMP: ZELENSKIY WILL HAVE TO LIKE U.S.-BACKED UKRAINE PLAN
Kremlin written-U.S. backed - that is.
Damn ruzzian puppies.

2025-11-22 17:26:28 UTC

World population is currently projected to peak in 2060-2080 at 9.5 - 10.5B people. Hans Rosling projected 11B nearly two decades ago.
#stats #population
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G6YCxpLXEAAbTCS?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G6YCxpOW4AAtNDI?format=jpg&name=medium

2025-11-20 12:00:14 UTC

Paypal $PYPL:
modest growth at reasonable price and aggressive capital allocation.
https://npub15l8fm0fl462an4w24qh7u5a4v6cj0d8gcsvaxk0tyuyxdrtxem3sn70ar3.blossom.band/d66888b3bf2fa06408cc2a784d14bfdbd21668e47b3f307a72ead896e24641c7.png
https://npub15l8fm0fl462an4w24qh7u5a4v6cj0d8gcsvaxk0tyuyxdrtxem3sn70ar3.blossom.band/de3d3181316088cc3b6d7ef3abb95f9b03cc39f422e7b452481a5a461f29507f.png
https://npub15l8fm0fl462an4w24qh7u5a4v6cj0d8gcsvaxk0tyuyxdrtxem3sn70ar3.blossom.band/19821e19e4bfb00237e27fff0b5373808d3f67b7365839c8c15fa52af01b3f7a.png
https://npub15l8fm0fl462an4w24qh7u5a4v6cj0d8gcsvaxk0tyuyxdrtxem3sn70ar3.blossom.band/10835d5d37401be5366e3c9748990004cffc34e890d4fe789bea51b83590ce39.png

2025-11-17 10:19:46 UTC

Bitcoin Core v30.0 increased OP_RETURN limit to "effectively unlimited". Pieter Wuille (core dev) explains the rationale.
My takeaway: Bloat on nodes is lesser evil against hurting decentralization via multiple angles that limits support long term.
https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/127895/implications-of-op-return-changes-in-upcoming-bitcoin-core-version-30-0/127903#127903

2025-11-14 07:30:22 UTC

@Charles_Lister
Parts of #Syria are beginning to see huge improvements in electricity supply, with #Damascus, #Aleppo & #Hama all receiving 16-24hrs of electricity per day in recent days.
That's up from 4-6hrs (which has been the norm for yrs) thanks to gas supplies & vast structural repairs.
https://image.nostr.build/cb1e1d3e6612385b31c40280078635b1c05c8fe14c4a8883f187ca3e773e97e6.jpg

2025-11-13 10:03:27 UTC

-focus on maintaining ROIC
-all hardware IP from OpenAI (custom chips, ex. consumer) to be available to $MSFT for next 7 yrs
-datacenter buildout pause - build on demand visibility, w/ grounding in chip replacement cycles, different power, networking reqs
https://youtu.be/8-boBsWcr5A

2025-11-12 21:08:59 UTC

On a positive note, $XYZ is stacking Bitcoin.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5lV718WgAAYqKr?format=jpg&name=medium

2025-11-12 21:02:02 UTC

Today had time to dig into Block $XYZ Q3 materials. Tried finding a reason for a -10% market reaction.
Likely culprit: falling Cash App GPV, despite accelerating growth in Cash App gross profit. It aint macro either. Venmo GPV (TPV) grew just fine.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5lPrfnWUAAF79D?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5lQZa6WMAA1Rrq?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5lSsS5XYAAfFVl?format=jpg&name=large

2025-11-05 19:20:28 UTC

So $ALAB earnings did not disappoint. 104% YoY profitable revenue growth; 20% QoQ. Only yesterday learned $AMZN has a stake since 2024.
They beat their own guides since IPO, however for 25'Q4 they are accelerating guided revenue.
Holding, would add around $140 if market gives.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G5A5sVFX0AACsLK?format=png&name=large

2025-11-05 19:10:12 UTC

Bought remainder of target position in VLP1L at same cost as initial purchase two weeks ago. Increased position by ~20%.

2025-11-04 22:09:25 UTC

Honestly, I don't understand the issue with Musk's $TSLA proposed pay package.
1. Does top richest man in the world need more money?
2. Why are fanboys cheering the dilution?

2025-11-01 12:46:15 UTC

“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves” - Peter Lynch
"Your portfolio is like a bar of soap. The more you touch it, the smaller it gets" - unknown

2025-10-31 19:23:03 UTC

Could not let go of yesterdays post after market idea to increase $ALAB, given sustained big tech Q3 CAPEX guidance. Doubled size (now 2% of portfolio) at $188.48.
Will see what Tuesday report and market brings.
Cash: 20%. Not posting updated chart..

2025-10-31 18:23:55 UTC

Trimmed $NET position by ~10% today at $238. FIFO profit: +235% (+28.4% CAGR)
Hard sell into accelerating revenue, but sale is portfolio share based only. No balls to trim to ~20% yet
Wanted partial rotation into $ALAB, but market got ahead of me, seeing sustained bigtech capex.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4m7HAZWIAA_NHH?format=png&name=900x900

2025-10-29 09:38:02 UTC

Nuclear power plants operated by France face particular stress from elevated river water temps and reduced flow volumes. Studies indicate outage levels could x2 at Chooz and x10 at Golfech reactors by 2050, w/ up to 14% of generation requiring curtailment in worst-case years.

2025-10-28 19:56:17 UTC

After years of losing international transfers maket share to less greedy providers and crypto $WU - business that should not exist on 2025, moves to crypto.
Western Union to Launch Stablecoin in 2026 -- WSJ
Western Union to Build Stablecoin on Solana Blockchain, Issue With Anchorage -- WSJ
Western Union to Launch Digital Asset Network of Wallet Providers -- WSJ

2025-10-27 19:19:47 UTC

In 2000s, more than 50% of the population in Southeast Asia, aged >15yr, used tobacco. By 2030, it's expected that fewer 20% people in Southeast Asia will consume tobacco.
Europe smokes the most now.
WHO set its own target of reducing tobacco use by 30% within 15yrs
$PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4SiGRLXsAEpX3d?format=png&name=large

2025-10-26 18:20:34 UTC

Recent portfolio moves:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4NJfHiXEAAq7Rn?format=png&name=900x900
-Increased AKO1L again by ~30% at 1.795. Sizable buybacks give comfort buying at ATH.
-Returned to MDARA in ~9.65-9.75 range. Expecting a notable improvement in margins, reasonable top line growth and geo expansion announcement (hinted at Q2)
-Entering VLP1L for first time at 10.5. Sizable insider buying before Q3 drops. But I'm leaning on a favorable acquisition price of MPK (see recent blogpost). CEO hints at doubling revenue
-Nailing a local bottom w/ another $ALAB buy at $151, reporting now, bc >1% weight
-And as reported Friday, likely temporarily sold $INTC at 83.2% profit (>900% CAGR), will seek to repurchase in $32-35 range.

2025-10-23 20:36:57 UTC

Been making moves in portfolio, will try to report tomorrow. Just a quick one on $INTC: Q3 with notable improvement in execution, margins.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G3-LrBJXsAAT_Xn?format=png&name=medium
Bought on technicals at $23. Then news came rolling in; sold today after hours for +80% profit in 3 months. Will try to repurchase lower.

2025-10-23 05:46:09 UTC

Institutionals out, retail in.
Bank of America Securities said clients resumed selling U.S. stocks last week after briefly “buying the dip,” led by institutional and hedge fund outflows.
Despite a 1.7% gain in the S&P 500, $2.1 billion in single-stock outflows outweighed $1.2 billion of ETF inflows. Institutions, who were big buyers the week before, became the largest sellers, while hedge funds extended their selling streak to six weeks. Retail investors kept buying, focusing on mid-cap stocks.

2025-10-22 19:10:36 UTC

I have previously introduced Lulu Rouge. Then Ninna Nanna pops into suggested, a remix by Trentemoller, another artist I've been listening for years.
Such distinct, dark, subtle atmosphere these guys can summon. A lullaby of sorts.
https://youtu.be/vuy_-5NnBjc
#GLMusicDiscovery

2025-10-21 04:25:06 UTC

Daily I see headlines of RU hybrid warfare on ground and cyberspace.
I want #EU to have a shadow fund, that operates to sabotage ruzzian infrastructure, "hauthi" the shadow fleet, nafo memes in ruzzian telegrams and vkontakte, pro democracy llm botnets in western media.

2025-10-20 14:05:22 UTC

Donald Trump urged Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept Russia’s terms for ending its war in a volatile White House meeting on Friday, warning that Vladimir Putin had said he would 'destroy' Ukraine if it did not agree - ft
Another 180.
There's a reason putin called A DAY before Zelenksy White House visit.
Donnie can barely keep anything in his deteriorated mind. Like somebody said - his views are formed by the last person he talks to.