janis
Janis

I don’t always agree with everything I say

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Last Notes

2026-03-23 20:45:08 UTC

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I read somewhere that even if rockets stop flying tomorrow and the strait of Hormuz opens up, it’s still _at least_ 6 months until pre-war oil/natgas capacity could _theoretically_ be achieved (at a great capital cost). Hence I think markets might’ve gotten the direction wrong too today.

2026-03-20 09:04:18 UTC

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It’s so satisfying to scroll this 😂

2026-02-06 09:31:12 UTC

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And imagine how impossible walking must feel to a baby who crawls. Being able to keep balance on those two small feet, _and_ lift one leg up to catch the ground forward. Pure acrobatics. I’m sure it’s one of the hardest things we learn to do.

2026-02-06 09:28:41 UTC

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Haha! Buying, I presume.

2026-02-05 20:29:13 UTC

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What do you mean. It’s on Reuters

2026-02-04 20:46:38 UTC

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Sentiment is extreme fear and BTC is at 73,5k. Sounds about right.

2026-01-24 19:34:43 UTC

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Murderers

2026-01-21 06:30:57 UTC

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Maybe there will be no big cinema. As in, a “proper” movie where you sit down and keep attention to it will be a niche thing. Like music records. And the bulk of “cinematic experience” is going to be Netflix et al flicks with dumbed down dialogues where the characters say the same thing three times over because viewership is expected to attention-share with their little screens.

2026-01-21 06:25:37 UTC

Are you still stacking, Anon?

2026-01-19 12:31:25 UTC

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But what are we to do? If their state is using civilian cover for their operatives to then come to Europe to plan and execute acts of terror? I prefer if the relevant services take a good and hard look at every russian national crossing the border. My and my kids’ safety trumps their ease of vacation concerns.

2026-01-19 11:50:20 UTC

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Their “civilians” fly drones around airports, set fires to IKEAs, and poison people putin doesn’t like. I think they can still get a visa, but it’s not like before. Also, there’s no air traffic between Europe and them either. So even if one gets a visa, getting to a beach in Italy isn’t exactly easy when it comes to logistics.

2026-01-19 08:50:42 UTC

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They can’t get to Europe anymore, maybe that’s why? Though this is not the first year of that.

2026-01-18 06:36:49 UTC

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Ah, I see what you mean now. The whole thing is bullshit. Especially because US can put whatever they want on Greenland for defence purposes even now due to it being part of NATO. He just wants to make “Murica bigger”, and that’s it. Btw, I’m not American.

2026-01-17 21:08:44 UTC

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Russian artillery reaches past half my country if stationed at the border. It’s all fun and games until it’s not, and tens of millions die again.

2026-01-17 20:50:55 UTC

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Federal agents shooting “fucking bitches”?

2026-01-17 20:48:37 UTC

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And what do we do when the fucking russians attack? This is one hell of a present to putin. Agent Krasnov couldn’t have done a better job in destroying the US hegemony.

2026-01-04 14:15:53 UTC

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One must wonder - why not Sochi or Gelendzhik

2026-01-03 10:53:51 UTC

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Ok, turns out no war

2026-01-03 09:27:28 UTC

New Year, new war

2025-12-29 02:02:59 UTC

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I literally just finished reading Mandibles, like, a minute ago

2025-12-26 20:59:19 UTC

87k gang

2025-12-22 22:09:05 UTC

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You can buy a flat in Riga, and sell it after you don’t need the visa anymore.

2025-12-19 23:40:11 UTC

Was playing with my kids on an oceanic beach. One where it gets deep quickly and the waves are big. The parallels with markets are astounding.
Playing the game where you need to get as close to the water, but get back with dry feet is like active trading. Exhausting. Also, the best way to keep your feet dry is to just not play. Long-term - pretty much everyone gets their feet wet at some point and loses. Can be played successfully though, but only if you’re super careful, and not really a super competitive person.
But there’s more.
Holding is like breaking through the break line and swimming beyond it. Much more peaceful. You just swim and bob up and down with the waves. Not struggling to stay up, not getting sandblasted on every wave. From the coast you look like a madman, especially when the bigger waves come. From your pov though you just bob up and down there and watch people getting rekt at the break line. Also, it takes some manning up, especially if the waves are big, and the water is deep beyond the break line.
Crazy how two completely unrelated processes can have so many parallels just because the systems are both stochastic, and involve people interacting with them.

2025-12-13 14:07:03 UTC

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I do. Paper format, The Economist. Gives a reasonably good quality normie view on a wide array of things. It helps me not being pulled too deep into all kinds of echo chambers uncritically.
Btw, also serves as a kind of a signal. If I read an article there talking about the crumbling fiat system and Bitcoin being the escape hatch - we’re not early anymore. Hasn’t happened yet.

2025-12-09 08:01:47 UTC

If autism leads to Bitcoin, and vaccines lead to autism, more kids should get vaccinated.

2025-12-09 04:58:38 UTC

Welcome, down under kids! This is not social media, and nobody needs to know you’re kids here!

2025-12-03 16:35:30 UTC

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The age old sell low, buy high strategy executed in a single trade?

2025-12-02 14:06:59 UTC

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*they’re

2025-12-02 14:06:24 UTC

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Open platforms are like forests, closed like gardens. It takes much more time for a forest to grow naturally, but once it does, it subsumes every garden, because gardens need constant upkeep.
Unless their permaculture gardens, but then Nostr is more like a permaculture garden than the normie garden.

2025-12-01 17:43:00 UTC

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16% cagr is pretty good. But also, what else to do? Shift into Litecoin and hope that it becomes the “next Bitcoin”? That’s a stupid game to play, and a losing one too. Where the fiat Ponzi grifters would be the only ones ultimately laughing all the way to the bank.
We can’t drop the ball on this one.

2025-12-01 07:55:40 UTC

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2025-11-30 20:58:20 UTC

A one sat zap has more sats in it than what 99.9% of Nostr posts get zapped with.
Also, in 90% of cases when someone posts some statistic, the percentage is just made up.

2025-11-30 11:09:13 UTC

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Sam just got his surveillance weapon in a different way.

2025-11-27 13:58:16 UTC

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2025-11-26 07:58:28 UTC

The labour productivity in communist Cuba is even lower than in Haiti. Which in turn is ruled by gangs in perpetual warfare amongst themselves.
Let that sink in.

2025-11-25 15:47:57 UTC

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It’s the mindset, right? The nations that have a high proportion of crazy makers are the ones on the upswing. The brits were there, the Americans were there, the Germans were there. The reasons why one or another nation finds themselves in that position differ. Also, it doesn’t mean that there are no other ways of growth and “getting by well enough”. That being said though, having crazy makers is a proven recipe. Now China is it. For sure.

2025-11-20 10:23:40 UTC

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Yeah, sorry about that, but it’d need to be some treatise in many parts to give the topic the breadth it deserves. I’m sure some historians are already working on it.
Kind of the main point is that this didn’t start in 2022, and not even 2014. The roots run deep, and the West and NATO are basically just stage decorations in the whole thing.

2025-11-20 09:52:51 UTC

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He's missing everything. And not even like missing, but things are basically unknown to him, because he hasn't followed the developments in Russia and its 'near-abroad' since the collapse of the Soviet Union. It's too long to capture in a nostr post, but: Ryazan sugar, Politkovskaya, Dugin, Nemtsov, GRU 54777, Yanukovich, Mezhyhirya, Titushky, Berkut, Mogilevich, Holodomor, Strelkov/Girkin's rush to Slovyansk, Brosok Mangusta, etc, etc, etc
The whole idea that some nebulous 'the West' could've just promised Putin something about Ukraine and the war would've been avoided is just people falling for Russian psyops.

2025-11-20 08:59:35 UTC

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This part here is total bullshit:
“The West could have guaranteed Ukrainian neutrality and avoided this war entirely.”
Nobody who can’t read Russian should say anything about that war.

2025-11-18 06:42:36 UTC

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Reporting for duty

2025-11-14 17:47:48 UTC

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*colonialist

2025-11-14 17:39:08 UTC

Sitting in Paris airport, watching ads. Apparently there’s a fashion artist from Guadeloupe who’s fighting “hetero-patriarchal-colonist” oppression with her collection.
@npub1rtl…jtfs was right about France lol

2025-11-12 20:57:55 UTC

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Building a family and having children is the ultimate low time preference activity. I see the joy and happiness in my wife’s grandmother’s eyes when we visit her with kids. That’s the happiness I look forward to. Not the dread of being alone and forgotten in an old people’s house with no visitors because everyone who knew me are all long dead.
Nothing makes sense without children. Not even Bitcoin.

2025-11-08 10:40:48 UTC

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Though I don’t disagree with him, nor I’d even have that right. It does need to be pointed out that the probable comparison is not between the fucked-up state of now and some idealised potential state of how “now” should’ve been. The comparison needs to be between “now”, and some potential “now” where Germany would’ve won the war.
Amusingly, I’m not even passing a value judgement there either, just pointing it out. Because the allied victory meant Soviet occupation that nearly destroyed my people, I’m not actually sure the German victory would’ve been much worse for us in that regard.

2025-11-04 12:00:42 UTC

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In general I agree. Except new coins are much less likely to be attacked, because people routinely use HD wallets these days, so long-range attacks wouldn’t work. There only the short-range attack targeting the funds while they’re in the mempool would be a concern.
It’s primarily old coins in wallets with long-exposed pubkeys that would be first attacked.

2025-11-03 17:06:44 UTC

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Exactly! And of course, vice versa, you can’t prove that an owner moves them and not an attacker. Except by the heavy KYC and AML process that someone would need to go through to actually dump a few billy worth of BTC at an OTC desk.

2025-11-03 12:03:09 UTC

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Makes sense! The only thing I’m wary about is this:
“Old coins, coins that haven’t moved in years, some dormant since the single-digit price days, are suddenly active. Not all at once. Not in panic. But steadily this year but especially since the summer. Methodically. Addresses that accumulated when Bitcoin was a cypherpunk experiment are finally moving their holdings.”
If a sufficiently advanced actor would’ve developed the quantum capability needed to attack Bitcoin, this is exactly how it would look like.
I don’t actually think that’s the case though. And also, that wouldn’t change the actual effects of the redistribution, so maybe wouldn’t even matter!

2025-11-01 20:48:59 UTC

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Octover 😂

2025-10-30 20:33:47 UTC

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On another note it’s just crazy to me how instantly global these trends are.

2025-10-30 20:32:59 UTC

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My oldest is firmly in the 6-7 generation. I think it’s called Alpha, next after Zoomers? I like them kids. To me they seam a lot grittier and bullshit-resistant relative to Zoomers even as kids. I think it’s because they’re growing up in this world where everything is a brainrot meme, everything is AI generated, and if you actually take any of that seriously and non-critically you’re more 2024 than Skibbidi toilet.
When my kid sees an unknown number his first reflex is that it must be a scammer.
They’re alright.

2025-10-29 20:04:53 UTC

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My eldest was hell bent on chewing on cables when he was a crawler. Fun times 😂

2025-10-28 21:26:19 UTC

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Not a Knots apologist, though I’ll sound like one with this question. I genuinely don’t understand how the 100kb data storage on-chain is not a legitimate worry.
Like, given enough time someone will push CSAM on-chain. If for no other reason than to see the world burn, or because they’ve opened a huge short on Hyperliquid.
And that would likely lead to a “floor discovery phase”.
What am I not getting?

2025-10-22 13:04:38 UTC

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If we’re talking about politics in medicine, I invite you to read up on Ignaz Semmelweis, and how he ended up basically because of going against the zeitgeist and received knowledge of the time.

2025-10-21 18:33:42 UTC

your mom

2025-10-19 19:04:49 UTC

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Before zooming in I hoped it’d be a stavekirke! Very beautiful either way!

2025-10-19 08:35:59 UTC

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GM! It’s pretty peaceful until @npub1rtl…jtfs wakes up and calls everyone gay lol

2025-10-17 19:59:16 UTC

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So, just to make it clear - it’s really about if you see that others can’t be convinced, and you still want to be fun at family parties lol.
Asked ChatGPT, and yeah, it’s only gold really. Reason being, the markets still see Bitcoin as a risk-on asset that more or less moves with equities, while gold is counter-cyclical to that. As in, when stocks (and Bitcoin, sadly) crash, gold goes up, and vice versa.
I’m not really a goldbug, but gold still does better than fiat bonds and what not when it comes to long term money supply inflation resistance. So at least you’d have a type of hard money still in the portfolio.
The only reason I’d be hesitant about this is that gold is up 60% I think year to date, which is crazy. From technical analysis perspective, I’d hesitate to buy something that looks so overbought. On the other hand, if there _is_ a correction in the next 24 months, gold will do better still.
So, I’d go something like - “look, my opinion is that Bitcoin is the best investment we can have. Yes, there is a risk of a significant correction (40% or so), if we face a global recession or something, but that will most likely still be more than what we initially bought it for. So I’d want to keep it as is, or even allocate more into it. However, if you’re uneasy with such a large part of our portfolio being Bitcoin, we could rebalance into something that historically works as a recession hedge, such as gold”
NFA, DYOR lol, I’m just a rando on nostr

2025-10-17 06:57:43 UTC

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That’s provided you can’t convince them to just HODL, of course.

2025-10-17 06:56:54 UTC

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Re-balancing wouldn’t actually be a horrible idea. But if and only if you rebalance into something that historically goes up when Bitcoin is going down. Gold, maybe? Or, well, Hyperliquid HLP vault lol.
But, like, point being, maybe this is not the hill for you to die on. But then you can probably steer the conversation into at least getting hard assets and not some government bagholding vehicle.

2025-10-15 07:09:04 UTC

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Someone noted though that this is far from the biggest if calculated as a percentage of total crypto marketcap. Though I haven’t seen the numbers!
Though your conclusion is spot on, BTC actually did remarkably well in that situation.

2025-10-14 20:34:53 UTC

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Nah. Remember that we’re in an echo chamber. Look out of it and Bitcoin is still this speculative asset that might lose 80% value any day. Of course it won’t, but the perceptions are slow to change.
In other words - we’re just still early.

2025-10-14 18:54:57 UTC

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wen EU?

2025-10-11 20:59:14 UTC

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Pretty expensive education. Education nonetheless.

2025-10-08 20:04:49 UTC

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2025-10-08 08:26:06 UTC

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Real subtle lol 😂👌

2025-10-07 06:57:18 UTC

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Are you saying that Austrians sent one of their dimwits to the States where he was smart enough to become a billionaire and a Governor?

2025-10-07 04:39:04 UTC

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America’s dumb are just easier for the rest to see because they get paraded around by your media for everyone’s amusement. The Indians and the Chinese seem very smart because the ones ending up in the West are the smart ones. When you actually go there, you get to witness their dumb too.
That being said, Trump going around boasting how he settled it between “Aberbaijan and Albania” doesn’t help.

2025-10-07 04:23:45 UTC

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That’s kind of harrowing though. Because if I just look at the chart, it screams sell 😂😂

2025-10-02 05:38:48 UTC

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Interesting how there are different ways how to say the same thing, but it colors your perception of it.
“Atheists and democrats to the left of the King, those who stood with god King and country (patriots) to the right”
Is equivalent to
“People who wanted the separation of Church and State, democracy, and freedom of speech to the left of the King, those who stood for continued authoritarian theocracy to the right”

2025-09-24 19:31:03 UTC

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I think this could be an attempt to throw off cell tower aided UAV navigation. ChatGPT concurs.

2025-09-18 16:08:50 UTC

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“We can better provide our services to you” lol

2025-09-16 18:30:45 UTC

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Plus one! At least once in a while? Pretty please? 😅

2025-09-16 18:16:01 UTC

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This hits hard.

2025-09-16 16:45:19 UTC

Was scrolling through some old notes, and realized how much I miss @npub1qny…95gx ‘s UPPERCASE

2025-09-15 19:43:20 UTC

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Hey, thanks!
Couldn’t respond sooner - swimming practice with the eldest, cooking dinner, then quality time with the older kids (Lego Fortnite lol), then bedtime!
Just wanted to say that it’s a really great initiative to gather young father Nostriches. I mean, we surely have at least this in common - we’re pro free speech, likely Bitcoiners, and wish the best for our kids. Namely that they can live safe and prosperous lives!
Being open to having it geographically distributed is super important too. As we just have different concerns and issues to deal with. As an example, the left/right divide is really not that important here. But it’s only because we still have the experience of living under a communist totalitarian regime still very fresh in our collective memory. So we really just don’t have too many fools advocating for it yet. We’re also still salty about how that pushed us from being one of the more prosperous and developed countries in the region to being among the poorest.
The very recent memory of being a pretty poor place also means we don’t have too many people hyper focusing on transgender bathroom policies. Boys are largely still boys and girls are largely still girls.
Similarly, having been pretty poor until quite recently (not yet super rich, but rich enough by now) also means we’re not really dealing with the consequences of decades of misguided mass migration results.
On the other hand, we do have to deal with external players who just dream to destroy the West. By making an example out of us. They want to see a politically fractured America, hopefully fighting a civil war. They want to see a divided Europe where countries can be played against each other. They want to see America and Europe at each other’s throats. That’s their wet dream. Then the world is an oyster for them.
That’s not a world I want my sons to live in. I want them to be free. And the way this needs to be done in my opinion is by saving the West. We need to reinvigorate its values and the foundation it has been built on. We need to confront the enemies willing to destroy it. Both internal and external. And not lose democracy and freedom in the process.
I think it’s a tall order, but it can be done. And the start is definitely the realization that someone who has decided to go into fatherhood with eyes wide open in this day and age is definitely not your enemy, as we definitely have more in common than what separates us. And that applies not just to the ideological spectrum in a particular country, but also across geographies.
So yeah, kudos! 👍 Now let’s go and fix everything.

2025-09-15 14:38:37 UTC

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Oh. Did you mean only American fathers?

2025-09-15 13:03:29 UTC

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I’m Latvian.

2025-09-15 09:59:09 UTC

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Father of three boys here 9, 6, 3 months.
My main worry for them is if either me or them end up in a hot war with Russia. Again. Historically it keeps happening here. From this point of view, my main gripe with a lot of right wing people from further West is that a lot of them are useful idiots when it comes to Russia.
Also, I “strongly dislike” dictators, wannabe dictators, and “strongmen”. Even if I’d otherwise align with them ideologically. Freedom comes first.

2025-09-14 08:45:56 UTC

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Focusing on people we love, and weighing the here and now above everything else is the way! I’m trying to do exactly the myself too!

2025-09-14 08:11:25 UTC

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It’s “just” another instance of political violence in an increasingly violent political environment in the US. Nothing more, nothing less.
For the rest of us from rest of the world, we don’t need to get involved. It’s kind of like neighbours having a nasty divorce. You don’t actively pick sides, as you don’t know who’s going to stay in the house.
And Americans giving this a whole existential global dimension is kind of like having the “World” Cup in baseball.
Not too far from me family men are dying in the trenches defending their homeland from an actual invasion that levels cities, spares no one, rapes, and tortures. I read news about ruined families, lone mothers, and killed newborns every day. On that background, this whole topic is really blown out of proportion. Especially if you’re not from the US.

2025-09-13 13:09:27 UTC

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I think it’s a no, no, and no. But what makes you ask this?

2025-09-10 21:14:07 UTC

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June 14, 2025 – Minnesota Legislators Shooting

2025-09-10 20:33:51 UTC

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People who take politics too seriously and fall into tribalism will always be violent and dangerous. Regardless of political leanings. When it comes to the right - Jan 6th.
The main feature of democracy is non-violent transfer of power between different sets of thugs, thieves, and other assholes.
Looks like America is on the path of losing this ability. Maybe it already has.

2025-09-09 11:41:25 UTC

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I think you have saved plenty. It’s just that we’re all strangers to you.

2025-09-06 03:59:00 UTC

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Well. At least you know the reply wasn’t AI generated.

2025-08-26 10:01:43 UTC

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You can’t, only “they” can

2025-08-26 08:12:54 UTC

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Apparently only if it’s excessive 🤷🏿

2025-08-26 05:06:13 UTC

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117435

2025-08-25 19:44:04 UTC

After playing with bitchat a bit, Nostr feels so established and mature in comparison.
(I know that the geohash functionality of Bitchat runs on Nostr too, so I mean the social media aspect of it - Damus, Primal, etc)

2025-08-24 20:14:23 UTC

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What happened though?

2025-08-24 14:48:24 UTC

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The proverbial “Play stupid games, win stupid prizes” case.

2025-08-23 04:02:19 UTC

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Because of the new app you guys are supposed to be using now? What it’s called, Mix?

2025-08-22 19:13:31 UTC

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But, but… France is gay, isn’t it? 😂

2025-08-20 15:06:44 UTC

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Hey! You should vlog. It’s all the rage here these days.

2025-08-14 05:30:53 UTC

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Oh wow! You’re, like, actually reading Nostr, and not just vlogging self-help from the desert! 😂
On the point - good counterpoint!

2025-08-13 15:22:25 UTC

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It’s still pretty easy for the government to tell what to do to a bunch of guys with automatic rifles, when they’re the one with all the rocket propelled artillery, aviation, and aircraft carriers.

2025-08-10 19:25:34 UTC

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I meant, what’s the investment that’s worth 200.23 in the parent post?

2025-08-10 05:12:11 UTC

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What’s the last thing that looks like a bunch of fiat?

2025-08-06 21:49:21 UTC

Scrolling through the list of speakers at this year’s Baltic Honeybadger. Two realizations:
1. Most speakers seem to have a Nostr presence. This is cool.
2. I don’t actually care what the ones without Nostr presence have to say. I mean, if a person doesn’t get why they must Nostr, they’re just larping caring about freedom anyway.

2025-08-04 04:23:25 UTC

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And then eventually the heir happens to be some dipshit. Not that the dipshit rules. Invisible power structures (IYKYK) emerge, and the King’s “master of stool” is suddenly the most prestigious job in the Kingdom. Eventually the actual rulers want to be recognised as such, and violence ensues.
Look, there are no “good” systems. It’s a space of trade-offs where you pick your poison. Or, well, it’s only a democracy that lets you “pick” the poison.
Arguably, the only real benefit a democracy provides is non-violent transfer of power. There are “democracies” where even this is not a given, and then yeah, a monarchy would be better, as the cycle of violence is longer.