majesstik1 / Jess is on Nostr

Creator of #TheWorkbook & Underdog Correlation Maps
@OneWeekSeason

Last Notes

2024-11-14 22:48:45 UTC

Using #TheWorkbook @oneweekseason these are the top Game Environments for the Week 11 Main Slate and the top players to build game stacks around.
#BillsMafia Allen + Shakir + Kincaid/Knox/Samuel + Kelce + Hopkins/Hunt
These two teams combine to have the top Combined Net Drive Success Rates (CNDSR). Bills rank 6th in Net PROE with the #3 Net EPA/Pass. KC Ranks 7th in Net PROE with the #2 CPOE. Both teams also rank high in EPA/Run, Bills 5th and KC 6th. Defensively, the Bills allow 3.5 Explosive Runs per game (Runs > 10 yards), which is 2nd highest on the slate.
There are a lot of pieces to work with in this game. As far as the matchup charts in #TheWorbook show, the top players from this game could be Allen, Shakir, Hunt, and both TE spots. Kincaid may miss this game which opens up some value at TE with Knox. DeAndre Hopkins (way too cheap) and Curtis Samuel (if Kincaid is out) also open up value to spend elsewhere.
#HereWeGo Russ + Pickens + Freiermuth + Andrews and/or Henry
This game has the 2nd highest CNDSR and 3rd narrowest Net DSR Differential (potential for close/back-and-forth game). BAL defense funnels their opponents into the highest PROE in the league and the Steelers offense has the #3 Net CPOE spot for the slate. Both team rank high in Net EPA/Pass (BAL #2, PIT #4) while both defenses are extremely tough against the run, EPA/Run has BAL #2 toughest and PIT #3 toughest. The Ravens offense has the most Explosive Pass Plays (Passes > 15 yards) on the slate with 5.8 average per game. Meanwhile, their defense has allowed an absurd 7.3 Explosive Passes per game.
You can use either QB in this game, but Russ has the slight edge for being at home and because of the pass rate and explosive play potential. However, he may be rostered at a high rate making Lamar a nice pivot. Pickens will also draw a lot of attention but if those explosive plays hit, it'll likely be through him (or maybe Calvin Austin if you want a pivot or cheap 2nd WR to stack). Freiermuth also benefits by facing a defense allowing the 2nd most yards per game to TEs (68.0/g) and the 4th most yards per game to any receiver type that lines up in the Slot (86.4/g). The Ravens bring-back in the best spot is the TE position, which will be all Mark Andrews (and Kolar) if Likely can't go. Derrick Henry faces a challenging defense but will likely not see high ownership because of it and can still end up with 2 TDs.
#TakeFlight Rodgers (or Richardson) + Wilson + Adams + Taylor
This one barely clears a CNDSR of .700but there are some holes in game stacking the other two games ahead of this on in CNDSR (JAX@DET and SEA@ SF). I could point out a big hole in this one, too - both teams have defenses that are easier to run on that throw, and there are no other game environment stats that excite. However, this one comes in on vibes.
Both QBs have faced recent turmoil and are in need to provide a spark for their offenses. Rodgers will do it through the air and Richardson has a path for a nice rushing day along with some passing opportunities. The Jets defense just gave up a 93% DSR to Arizona, where Kyler ran for 21 yards and 2 TDs. Prior to this, the Jets allowed Stroud 59 yards rushing, and Maye had 57. Richardson is cheap for a scrambling QB on this slate. Meanwhile, the Colts defense has allowed at least 280 passing yards in each of the last 3 games and have allowed three 300 yard games this year.
Rodgers has logical stacking partners with Wilson and Adams, while Richardson may work best with Taylor in case this game stays mostly on the ground for the Colts, which is usually the path of lease resistance against the Jets defense. Colts WR is a crapshoot with Richardson at QB but Alec Pierce's 22.5 aDOT and 22.4 YPR is fun.
Honorable Mention:
#Patriots Maye + Henry + Boutte + Nacua/Kupp + (Kyren)
#BroncosCountry Nix + Sutton + (Vele) + Bijan + (Pitts)
There were two games I want to put here because they are very similar. In both of the games I like for this spot there are young, mobile QBs with cheap receiving options with expensive bring-backs. Both games are right next to each other in CNDSR. DEN has the better metrics for PROE & CPOE. Both games have several ways to mix up the game stacks.
For NE, Hunter Henry has the #5 TE matchup of the slate, and Boutte is a cheap option out wide, where LAR has allowed more points from WRs (compared to from the slot). The Rams have the #1 Outside WR matchup of the slate, but it mainly comes from them also being the best team on the slate at scoring Outside WR points. The Patriots have allowed the 2nd most points to RBs on the ground on the slate making Kyren a solid play.
For DEN, Nix and Sutton are clicking and Vele did some damage on minimal targets last week (due to catching a TD). If last week's numbers hold up, then Vele is the #2 WR in Denver and also ran the most slot routes, which would keep him away from A.J. Terrell and in the softer area of ATL's coverage. Denver's secondary has been phenomenal at limiting opponent's WR fantasy points, and tends to funnel those point inside to RBs (Bijan) and TEs (Pitts).
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2024-11-01 21:08:56 UTC

Using #TheWorkbook @oneweekseason these are the top Game Environments for Week 9 and the top players to build game stacks around.
🤠Dak + Lamb + (Ferg/Tolbert) + Bijan + (London)
This is the top Combined Net Drive Success Rate (CNDSR) game of the main slate with a projected 72.8% of drives resulting in a new set of downs or a touchdown. This is how fantasy points get scored. For the main slate, DAL projects for the most pass attempts, has the #4 Net PROE matchup, and faces a defense allowing the highest CPOE and 4.8 explosive passes per game (#5). With the lack of a rushing attack, Dak should keep busy and Lamb is his top target. Adding Ferguson or Tolbert to the stack and bringing back Bijan and/or London creates the mega-stack.
🧀Love + Reed + (Doubs) + Gibbs/Monty + (LaPorta)
This game is only #6 for CNDSR but has a clear game stack available based on the Net Matchup Charts that makes it more interesting than a couple of the games ahead of it. A lot of this depends on the health signals we get from GB regarding Love leading up to kickoff, and even if Willis starts I may still be interested due to his scrambling ability and low cost on DK. Jayden Reed has the nuts Slot WRs matchup and I've been anxious to play him for a 3rd week in a row now. Surely this is his week? If Love plays, then adding Doubs is in play. The Packers defensive strength is taking away Outside WRs and the matchups indicate DET RBs and TEs are the way to go. Take your pick with who you like best from Gibbs/Monty/LaPorta.
🐯Burrow + Chase + Brown/(Burton) + Bowers
Like the DET/GB game this one doesn't stand out for having a high CNDSR but it has a Net DSR differential of 0, making it the most evenly matched game of the week. The Bengals are at home and their implied team total is 26, which is pretty good this week. With Higgins and Moss getting ruled out, the probability for Ja'Marr Chase and Chase Brown to hit increases. Jermaine Burton has received some positive messaging from Burrow about his ability to get open. Next step is Burrow trusting the throw. At $3100, I'll take the bait instead of waiting to see it. Behind "BAL TE", Bowers has the top individual TE matchup of the slate and is the top bring-back from the Raiders side. Meyers and Mattison are also in play.
Additional notes:
Philly is in a smash spot against the Jags defense but since their bye week they have played three straight games with PROEs of -10, -19, and -12. This could be the game environment to snap them out of that and one or more of their offensive weapons could go nuclear this week.
The Saints injuries condense their offense down to Kamara, Olave, and Taysom against the worst defense in the league. Not a bad idea to have at least one of those three sprinkled in your builds.
Bo Nix has the nuts QB matchup against a pass-funnel defense. At $5900 on DK, he's the lowest priced scrambling QB (unless Willis plays) and doesn't require a stacking partner.
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2024-08-28 21:32:40 UTC

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This book blew my mind trying to think through some of the concepts.

2024-08-28 21:32:27 UTC

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This book blew my mind trying to think through some of the concepts.

2024-07-10 18:30:18 UTC

2yr RB study focusing on RB1, Top-3, Top-5, Top-12, and Top-20 finish rates. The 2yr Avg is the first data group and is sorted by RB Top-5 finish rates. 2yr PPG Avg is also noted.
Since RB is a volatile position for injuries, you might want to mentally review which of the two years the RB was more healthy (ie. Pollard), had a more prominent role (ie. Kyren), or is showing signs of decline (ie. Ekeler).
Some observations:
Derrick Henry is showing slight signs of slowing down in all of his rates but lands in a great offense this year. He's neither a fade or a priority for me this year and is worth grabbing when he slides past ADP.
Jacobs held out last year, played for a bad offense, then got hurt. He doesn't have great "advanced stats" but his new team and role are pluses. He was a beast 2 years ago when he was playing for that new contract.
With all that has gone wrong in Barkley's career, he sure does have a nice floor rate (Top 20 finishes).
Pollard was pretty good in his last year sharing time with Zeke. He played hurt last year. Going to TEN to share the load with Spears may boost his numbers back up a bit.
D'Onta Foreman is interesting. He's had 3 Top-5 games in his last 2 years and joins a backfield where he should have some of the Chubb role (high floor) and some of the Hunt role (5 Top-20 finishes). Foreman had a RB1 finish in a similarly crowded backfield last year and is going in Rd18 of
@UnderdogFantasy
drafts.
Some players that are a bit concerning to me at ADP are White and Cook.https://m.primal.net/JMVu.png

2024-07-09 03:31:23 UTC

2yr QB study focusing on QB1, Top-3, Top5, and Top-12 finish rates. The 2yr Avg is the first data group and is sorted by QB Top-3 finish rates. 2yr PPG Avg is also noted.
Some observations:
Mahomes still ranks 9th in Top-3 finish rate after a down year in 2023. Mahomes also has the 4th highest floor rate (Top-12 games).
Burrow led the league in overall QB1 finish rate in 2022 and fought through injuries last year. We'll see if both Burrow and Mahomes bounce back.
Hurts and Allen have elite floor and elite ceiling. Lamar has the highest 2yr Avg for QB1 finish rate of everyone but does not have as high of a floor as Hurts/Allen.
Kyler Murray has no QB1 finishes and one Top-3 finish through 18 games, albeit some of them not at 100%. However, he has shown a great floor, finishing in the Top-12 at the 3rd highest rate.
Justin Fields with the 4th highest QB1 rate makes one wonder how long they ride with Russ if they aren't winning.
Dak, Tua, and Dimes look like guys you want to draft with a high-floor QB.
Rodgers might be cooked. He was meh 2 years ago and missed all of last year.https://m.primal.net/JLJf.png

2024-07-07 17:11:42 UTC

Hello new nostr friends! I am Jess (or Jesse), AKA majesstik1 on X. I am here to learn from this community. My primary hobbies include DCA'ing into Bitcoin and Fantasy Football. I've been playing fantasy football since 1995 and only this year have started my Bitcoin journey.
I'd like to share some of my fantasy football content here if that is allowed. My two biggest projects get posted on One Week Season .com and they are massive Google workbooks full of info. One is an offseason project I do which has Correlation Maps for Underdog Fantasy Football drafts, the other is called #TheWorkbook which get produced during the season and is mostly geared towards DraftKings DFS. Here is a sample of that: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1g7KC8Y1eei2ATH00qj5AEGe1LLfIdpBEaZM1FRsnDks/edit?gid=0#gid=0
Both of these projects are free on the OWS site if you have created an account there. If there are fantasy football fans here, I'd like to engage in conversations around that. I am more likely to post about that topic than Bitcoin due to my length of experience with one over the other. However, I do enjoy reading posts about Bitcoin here and have been doing so for a few months.
Cheers!