#BillsMafia Allen + Shakir + Kincaid/Knox/Samuel + Kelce + Hopkins/Hunt
These two teams combine to have the top Combined Net Drive Success Rates (CNDSR). Bills rank 6th in Net PROE with the #3 Net EPA/Pass. KC Ranks 7th in Net PROE with the #2 CPOE. Both teams also rank high in EPA/Run, Bills 5th and KC 6th. Defensively, the Bills allow 3.5 Explosive Runs per game (Runs > 10 yards), which is 2nd highest on the slate.
There are a lot of pieces to work with in this game. As far as the matchup charts in #TheWorbook show, the top players from this game could be Allen, Shakir, Hunt, and both TE spots. Kincaid may miss this game which opens up some value at TE with Knox. DeAndre Hopkins (way too cheap) and Curtis Samuel (if Kincaid is out) also open up value to spend elsewhere.
#HereWeGo Russ + Pickens + Freiermuth + Andrews and/or Henry
This game has the 2nd highest CNDSR and 3rd narrowest Net DSR Differential (potential for close/back-and-forth game). BAL defense funnels their opponents into the highest PROE in the league and the Steelers offense has the #3 Net CPOE spot for the slate. Both team rank high in Net EPA/Pass (BAL #2, PIT #4) while both defenses are extremely tough against the run, EPA/Run has BAL #2 toughest and PIT #3 toughest. The Ravens offense has the most Explosive Pass Plays (Passes > 15 yards) on the slate with 5.8 average per game. Meanwhile, their defense has allowed an absurd 7.3 Explosive Passes per game.
You can use either QB in this game, but Russ has the slight edge for being at home and because of the pass rate and explosive play potential. However, he may be rostered at a high rate making Lamar a nice pivot. Pickens will also draw a lot of attention but if those explosive plays hit, it'll likely be through him (or maybe Calvin Austin if you want a pivot or cheap 2nd WR to stack). Freiermuth also benefits by facing a defense allowing the 2nd most yards per game to TEs (68.0/g) and the 4th most yards per game to any receiver type that lines up in the Slot (86.4/g). The Ravens bring-back in the best spot is the TE position, which will be all Mark Andrews (and Kolar) if Likely can't go. Derrick Henry faces a challenging defense but will likely not see high ownership because of it and can still end up with 2 TDs.
#TakeFlight Rodgers (or Richardson) + Wilson + Adams + Taylor
This one barely clears a CNDSR of .700but there are some holes in game stacking the other two games ahead of this on in CNDSR (JAX@DET and SEA@ SF). I could point out a big hole in this one, too - both teams have defenses that are easier to run on that throw, and there are no other game environment stats that excite. However, this one comes in on vibes.
Both QBs have faced recent turmoil and are in need to provide a spark for their offenses. Rodgers will do it through the air and Richardson has a path for a nice rushing day along with some passing opportunities. The Jets defense just gave up a 93% DSR to Arizona, where Kyler ran for 21 yards and 2 TDs. Prior to this, the Jets allowed Stroud 59 yards rushing, and Maye had 57. Richardson is cheap for a scrambling QB on this slate. Meanwhile, the Colts defense has allowed at least 280 passing yards in each of the last 3 games and have allowed three 300 yard games this year.
Rodgers has logical stacking partners with Wilson and Adams, while Richardson may work best with Taylor in case this game stays mostly on the ground for the Colts, which is usually the path of lease resistance against the Jets defense. Colts WR is a crapshoot with Richardson at QB but Alec Pierce's 22.5 aDOT and 22.4 YPR is fun.
Honorable Mention:
#Patriots Maye + Henry + Boutte + Nacua/Kupp + (Kyren)
#BroncosCountry Nix + Sutton + (Vele) + Bijan + (Pitts)
There were two games I want to put here because they are very similar. In both of the games I like for this spot there are young, mobile QBs with cheap receiving options with expensive bring-backs. Both games are right next to each other in CNDSR. DEN has the better metrics for PROE & CPOE. Both games have several ways to mix up the game stacks.
For NE, Hunter Henry has the #5 TE matchup of the slate, and Boutte is a cheap option out wide, where LAR has allowed more points from WRs (compared to from the slot). The Rams have the #1 Outside WR matchup of the slate, but it mainly comes from them also being the best team on the slate at scoring Outside WR points. The Patriots have allowed the 2nd most points to RBs on the ground on the slate making Kyren a solid play.
For DEN, Nix and Sutton are clicking and Vele did some damage on minimal targets last week (due to catching a TD). If last week's numbers hold up, then Vele is the #2 WR in Denver and also ran the most slot routes, which would keep him away from A.J. Terrell and in the softer area of ATL's coverage. Denver's secondary has been phenomenal at limiting opponent's WR fantasy points, and tends to funnel those point inside to RBs (Bijan) and TEs (Pitts).
