🤠Dak + Lamb + (Ferg/Tolbert) + Bijan + (London)
This is the top Combined Net Drive Success Rate (CNDSR) game of the main slate with a projected 72.8% of drives resulting in a new set of downs or a touchdown. This is how fantasy points get scored. For the main slate, DAL projects for the most pass attempts, has the #4 Net PROE matchup, and faces a defense allowing the highest CPOE and 4.8 explosive passes per game (#5). With the lack of a rushing attack, Dak should keep busy and Lamb is his top target. Adding Ferguson or Tolbert to the stack and bringing back Bijan and/or London creates the mega-stack.
🧀Love + Reed + (Doubs) + Gibbs/Monty + (LaPorta)
This game is only #6 for CNDSR but has a clear game stack available based on the Net Matchup Charts that makes it more interesting than a couple of the games ahead of it. A lot of this depends on the health signals we get from GB regarding Love leading up to kickoff, and even if Willis starts I may still be interested due to his scrambling ability and low cost on DK. Jayden Reed has the nuts Slot WRs matchup and I've been anxious to play him for a 3rd week in a row now. Surely this is his week? If Love plays, then adding Doubs is in play. The Packers defensive strength is taking away Outside WRs and the matchups indicate DET RBs and TEs are the way to go. Take your pick with who you like best from Gibbs/Monty/LaPorta.
🐯Burrow + Chase + Brown/(Burton) + Bowers
Like the DET/GB game this one doesn't stand out for having a high CNDSR but it has a Net DSR differential of 0, making it the most evenly matched game of the week. The Bengals are at home and their implied team total is 26, which is pretty good this week. With Higgins and Moss getting ruled out, the probability for Ja'Marr Chase and Chase Brown to hit increases. Jermaine Burton has received some positive messaging from Burrow about his ability to get open. Next step is Burrow trusting the throw. At $3100, I'll take the bait instead of waiting to see it. Behind "BAL TE", Bowers has the top individual TE matchup of the slate and is the top bring-back from the Raiders side. Meyers and Mattison are also in play.
Additional notes:
Philly is in a smash spot against the Jags defense but since their bye week they have played three straight games with PROEs of -10, -19, and -12. This could be the game environment to snap them out of that and one or more of their offensive weapons could go nuclear this week.
The Saints injuries condense their offense down to Kamara, Olave, and Taysom against the worst defense in the league. Not a bad idea to have at least one of those three sprinkled in your builds.
Bo Nix has the nuts QB matchup against a pass-funnel defense. At $5900 on DK, he's the lowest priced scrambling QB (unless Willis plays) and doesn't require a stacking partner.
