Trey

Bitcoin + FIRE | Newsletter: firebtc.io | VP Sales @unchained

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Last Notes

2026-04-18 13:03:07 UTC

The hardest part of building wealth is getting to the point where your money starts doing real work. Before that, every contribution feels small. Progress feels invisible. You save, invest, stack, and wonder if any of it is moving the needle.
Then you hit a threshold where the math changes. A six-figure portfolio starts producing noticeable movement on its own. A good month matters. A good year can look like another year of salary. The same thing is true with bitcoin. The first $100k took years of skepticism, volatility, and grinding adoption. The next phase gets easier because size changes what bitcoin can do. Bigger market, deeper liquidity, more serious capital, more real-world utility.
That is what people miss when they obsess over whether bitcoin already went up too much. Price appreciation is not just excitement. It is evidence of a network getting stronger and more useful. In FIRE terms, it is the moment when compounding stops feeling theoretical and starts feeling real.
I wrote more here: https://firebtc.io/p/the-first-100k-is-the-hardest

2026-04-17 13:48:21 UTC

A 10% return turns $100 into $121 in two years. Nice. But that misses the point. The real power of compounding shows up when you stop interrupting the process and give your capital time to stack on itself.
That is the part a lot of FIRE content glosses over. Everyone wants the perfect budget, the perfect side hustle, the perfect spreadsheet. All useful. None of it matters much if you keep resetting the clock every time markets get ugly or a new shiny thing shows up.
Wealth building is front-loaded with effort and back-loaded with results. Early on, your contributions do the heavy lifting. Later, your portfolio starts pulling its own weight. Then one day the gains are larger than what you saved from your paycheck, and the math starts to feel unfair in your favor.
That is why time matters so much. Start earlier. Save more. Own assets with real upside. Then stay in the damn trade long enough for compounding to do what it does.
I wrote about why compounding is the real engine behind FIRE, and why the right asset mix can change the timeline more than most people think. https://firebtc.io/p/the-power-of-compounding

2026-04-15 15:59:28 UTC

The weirdest part of buying lunch with bitcoin wasn't the payment. It was how fast people rushed to tell me I had just spent "$1,000 burger and fries."
I went to Steak 'n Shake after they started accepting bitcoin nationwide. The actual experience was the least remarkable part. Tap wallet, scan, done. As seamless as using a card. That's the point.
What interested me more was the reaction. A lot of bitcoiners still act like spending sats is uniquely reckless because those sats will be worth more later. But that misses the real tradeoff.
The opportunity cost doesn't come from spending bitcoin instead of dollars. It comes from spending at all. Every dollar you burn on consumption is sats you didn't save. The medium changes. The economic reality doesn't.
So no, the lesson isn't "never spend bitcoin." The lesson is to be intentional about what you spend, save aggressively, and recognize that medium-of-exchange adoption matters if we want bitcoin to grow from asset to money.
I unpacked the Steak 'n Shake experience and the bigger idea here: https://firebtc.io/p/my-1000-burger-and-fries

2026-04-14 14:15:23 UTC

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💯

2026-04-14 13:02:24 UTC

If homeownership is the only path to building wealth, a lot of younger people are screwed. I don't think that's true. I think the old default is breaking, and people are mistaking that for the death of opportunity itself.
Housing worked so well for prior generations because it bundled leverage, forced savings, inflation protection, and lifestyle value into one simple package. But people also exaggerate how great the investment was. A house doesn't just sit there and compound like an index fund. You keep pouring money into it for decades through mortgage payments, taxes, insurance, maintenance, and repairs, while tying up capital in one illiquid asset.
That doesn't make owning a home bad. I own mine and value it. It just means we should stop treating homeownership like a prerequisite for adulthood or financial success. The opportunity set has changed. Work is more digital, businesses are easier to start, and bitcoin gives savers a different escape hatch. The game changed. The answer is to adapt.
I unpack the housing myth, the leverage illusion, and why a changing opportunity set matters more than nostalgia: https://firebtc.io/p/homeward-bound

2026-04-13 13:31:33 UTC

The systems that hold up best over time usually aren't the ones with the most resources. They're the ones with the right constraints.
Your brain runs on roughly 20 watts and still outperforms machines that need massive data centers and constant intervention. Tight limits forced clean architecture. Efficiency wasn't added later. It was designed in from the start.
Money works the same way. Fiat depends on committees, discretion, policy shifts, and a stack of institutions trying to keep the whole thing coherent. Bitcoin takes the opposite path. Fixed supply. Clear rules. Decentralized verification. Difficulty adjustment. No one needs to reinterpret the system every time conditions change.
That's why bitcoin feels different. It's not just scarcer money. It's a cleaner information system. Less noise. Less room for political distortion. More signal you can actually trust.
Constraints don't weaken a system. In the best systems, they create the clarity that makes the whole thing durable.
Full piece here: https://firebtc.io/p/brains-bitcoin-and-the-power-of-constraints

2026-03-27 19:14:48 UTC

The U.S. has run a trade deficit for 50 straight years. Most people think that's a policy failure. It's actually a structural requirement of running the world's reserve currency.
When every country needs dollars to settle trade and hold reserves, the only way to supply them globally is for America to import more than it exports. Economists call this the Triffin Dilemma.
This creates a brutal paradox for anyone trying to "fix" the deficit through tariffs. If you actually balance trade, you choke off the global dollar supply — triggering credit crunches, collapsing currencies, and cascading defaults on dollar-denominated debt worldwide.
The most likely response to that crisis? More money printing to flood the system with liquidity, exactly like the COVID response.
The Triffin Dilemma has no clean exit within the current monetary system. You either run deficits forever or break the global financial plumbing trying to stop. Bitcoin sits outside this trap entirely, and every print-squeeze-print cycle makes that harder to ignore.
I unpacked the full Triffin Dilemma and what it means for your bitcoin thesis in FIRE BTC → https://firebtc.io/p/trump-be-triffin-bro

2026-03-25 15:00:06 UTC

For every 1% you shift from index funds to bitcoin, your portfolio's total return over 8 years increased by 9.61%.
I ran the analysis: $100/week, split between VTI and BTC at various allocations, tracked over two full halving cycles.
At 0% bitcoin, index funds do their job. At 10%, the numbers pull away. At 100% bitcoin, the portfolio grew to nearly 7x the all-index version. Same $41,800 contributed — the only variable was allocation.
The traditional FIRE playbook says buy VTI and chill. I followed that for years, and it works. But when I examined what bitcoin actually does inside a savings portfolio — fixed supply, global liquidity, adoption-driven appreciation — the math pointed clearly in one direction.
Volatility is part of the deal. Bitcoin saw an 84% drawdown during this window, but consistent weekly buys turned those drawdowns into fuel for the long-term outperformance.
Your savings rate matters and your time horizon matters, but your allocation decision might matter most of all.
I break down the full 8-year data across every allocation level in FIRE BTC → https://firebtc.io/p/supercharge-your-fire-journey

2026-03-24 13:54:37 UTC

Your brain runs on 20 watts — less than a dim lightbulb. Modern AI clusters consume megawatts and still can't match what those 20 watts produce.
Architecture under constraint explains the difference.
The brain can't request more compute or expand its memory with hardware upgrades. Those hard limits forced evolution to build something elegant: billions of simple components following local rules, fault-tolerant, self-repairing, capable of creativity with almost no overhead.
Money follows the same design split. Fiat operates like an AI cluster — central banks, regulators, commercial banks, courts, and political bodies all adjusting levers in real time. Massive institutional overhead producing monetary signals that still get noisy and distorted.
Bitcoin operates like the brain. Fixed rules, fixed supply, decentralized validation. No committees reinterpreting policy. A difficulty adjustment that keeps the system balanced regardless of external conditions.
The most capable systems have never been the ones with unlimited resources. They're the ones where constraints force elegance.
I explore this constraint-driven framework across biology, AI, and money in FIRE BTC → https://firebtc.io/p/brains-bitcoin-and-the-power-of-constraints

2026-03-23 13:36:33 UTC

Every time bitcoin rips, my phone lights up with the same question: "How's it going in crypto?"
I don't work in crypto. I work in bitcoin. And the gap between the two is enormous.
Bitcoin solves a fundamental problem — money controlled by a handful of institutions who debase your savings to fund wars, bail out banks, and expand their own power. It's permissionless, decentralized, and can't be printed into oblivion.
Crypto? Solutions looking for problems. NFTs pretending to transfer ownership of infinitely copyable images. DeFi that's neither decentralized nor finance. Tokenized real estate that creates more complexity than it removes.
When bitcoin pumps, thousands of altcoins ride its coattails. You'll hear about some kid turning $500 into $5M on a dog coin. You won't hear about the timing required to buy right, sell right, and extract liquidity from a paper-thin market — all while fighting your own greed.
FIRE is a low time preference game. Methodical wealth building over time, risk kept to a minimum. Chasing a 1000x on a meme coin is the exact opposite of that.
Bitcoin is the signal. Everything else is noise.
I break down why bitcoin is the only asset that belongs in a FIRE portfolio → https://firebtc.io/p/no-i-dont-mean-crypto

2026-03-21 13:04:54 UTC

$100,000 per year in retirement expenses. Under the 4% rule, that means selling bitcoin annually — paying capital gains taxes, shrinking your stack, and reducing the compounding that got you to FIRE in the first place.
There's another approach worth understanding: borrow against your bitcoin instead of selling it.
A bitcoin-backed loan gives you dollars now while your BTC keeps working. If the price appreciates faster than your interest rate over the loan term, you end up selling less bitcoin at maturity than you would have upfront. The fiat system runs on debt — might as well use it to your advantage.
The discipline is in risk management. Keep collateral to a small fraction of your total stack, plan for interest payments and margin calls, and scrutinize your lender's custody model. BlockFi and Celsius showed what happens when you skip that step.
Banks are slowly entering bitcoin lending. When they arrive at scale, rates should compress and terms improve. Until then, borrow conservatively and never leverage more than you can reinforce.
I break down the full strategy — interest coverage, collateral management, and counterparty risk — in FIRE BTC → https://firebtc.io/p/borrowing-against-your-bitcoin

2026-03-18 14:03:03 UTC

In 2018, a Harvard economist went on CNBC and predicted bitcoin would fall to $100. Today it trades above $72,000 — and Harvard's own endowment quietly allocated $100 million to a bitcoin ETF.
The pattern keeps repeating: the most credentialed voices in finance dismiss bitcoin, not because they lack intelligence, but because truly understanding it requires questioning the system that built their careers. Central banks, monetary policy, fiat stability — these aren't just topics they study. They're the foundation of their entire professional identity.
So when bitcoin works exactly as designed — permissionless, borderless, censorship-resistant — they don't see strength. They see a threat to the worldview that earned them tenure.
Meanwhile, adoption moves on two fronts: from the bottom up through individual savers pursuing financial independence, and from the top down through sovereign funds and endowment allocators. The people who built reputations dismissing bitcoin are now managing portfolios that hold it.
Reality doesn't wait for academic approval.
I break down why the credentialed class keeps getting bitcoin wrong → firebtc.io/p/harvard-humbled

2026-03-17 13:06:32 UTC

Every decision you make narrows the infinite set of possible futures down to fewer, more favorable ones.
Think of it like quantum physics — before you act, every outcome exists simultaneously. The moment you take a deliberate step, you collapse possibilities toward the ones aligned with your direction.
I think of this as probability distortion. Bold, consistent action doesn't guarantee outcomes, but it puts a thumb on the scale. Each intentional move — stacking sats, optimizing spending, learning — feeds energy into your chosen trajectory.
The compounding happens in your portfolio and your conviction simultaneously. Early actions feel small, but four years of disciplined effort builds momentum that carries you through bear markets and noise.
Bitcoin amplifies this because it replaces fiat's ocean of uncertainty with mathematical certainty — a fixed supply of 21 million, proof-of-work security, and unforgeable ownership give you a foundation you can actually build on.
Fortune favors the bold, but especially the bold who build on solid ground.
I break down the full framework of probability distortion and the stacking sprint → https://firebtc.io/p/favorable-fortunes

2026-03-11 16:49:54 UTC

A bear who gives bitcoin a 10% chance of hitting $1M still breaks even buying at $100k. Bump that to 25% and every dollar you invest has an expected value of $2.50.
This is Expected Value Analysis — the same math poker players use to make profitable decisions across thousands of hands. It doesn't care whether you win any single bet. It cares about probability × payoff, repeated over time.
I spent years on a trading floor watching smart people chase certainty in markets that never offered it. The best traders didn't try to be right on every position. They made +EV decisions consistently and let compound math do the heavy lifting.
Every major FIRE decision works the same way. Rent or buy? Hold cash or deploy it? Index funds or bitcoin? You can estimate probability-weighted outcomes for each option, and the clarity is worth the exercise.
When I run EVA on bitcoin's 10-year outlook, the expected value dominates everything else competing for my capital. I walk through the full framework in one of my FIRE BTC deep dives — poker math, rent-vs-buy, and bitcoin's asymmetry.
https://firebtc.io/p/expected-value-thinking

2026-03-10 13:05:19 UTC

14 BTC — that's what it would cost to retire today on $100k/year in expenses if you're using bitcoin as your savings vehicle.
Sounds like a lot. But the math changes dramatically when you factor in time.
I built a framework for calculating your personal BTC stacking goal in FIRE BTC. It comes down to three inputs: your annual expenses, a conservative bitcoin growth assumption, and your time horizon.
The formula: take your annual expenses, multiply by 12.5 (an adjusted withdrawal rate that accounts for bitcoin's higher growth potential vs. stocks), and divide by the current BTC price. That gives you your "retire right now" number.
Then apply what I call the Rule of 3 — for every 5 years you're willing to keep working, divide your BTC target by 3.
That intimidating 14 BTC target? With a 10-year runway, it drops to about 1.5 BTC.
The difference between aimless and purposeful stacking is knowing your number — not a meme number, but one built on your actual lifestyle costs and timeline. Sprint hard early, build your position, then let bitcoin's growth carry you the rest of the way.
https://firebtc.io/p/goalseek

2026-03-08 13:39:54 UTC

Gold crossed $30 trillion in total value and the gold bugs came out swinging. Bitcoin is "useless," they said. Gold has real utility — electronics, jewelry, dentistry, space tech.
They're right. And that's exactly the problem.
When a monetary asset gets pulled toward industrial demand, its price stops reflecting monetary fundamentals. Silver prices move with iPhone production cycles. Gold prices fall when jewelry sales slump. That's not a feature of sound money — it's noise. A measuring stick that warps depending on how many circuit boards are being manufactured isn't a measuring stick anymore.
There's also the supply problem. Higher prices incentivize more mining. New extraction expands supply and dilutes every existing holder. The 1850s gold rushes caused inflationary spikes even under the gold standard. This is the commodity trap — the very utility that drives demand also drives new production that undermines scarcity.
Bitcoin was designed around exactly this insight. No industrial use. No jewelry demand. No ability to mine more of it when the price rises. The supply schedule is fixed regardless of what markets do. Its "uselessness" is a deliberate feature — it removes every mechanism by which scarcity could erode.
You can't email gold. You can't split it for small payments. You can't settle across borders in seconds. Gold was the best monetary technology of the physical age. Bitcoin is what happens when you rebuild money from scratch for an age that runs on information.
The gold bugs are gloating. Fair enough. But the argument they think they're making — that utility proves superiority — is actually the best case for why bitcoin wins long-term.
https://firebtc.io/p/gloating-goldbugs

2026-03-08 13:30:48 UTC

Test post

2026-03-05 15:07:55 UTC

Every January, millions of people resolve to hit the gym and eat better. Almost none of them make a plan for their money — the one thing that actually determines whether they work until 65 or walk away at 45.
Last year I put together 21 bitcoin + FIRE resolutions. Every single one still applies in 2026 — and a few are even more urgent now. Automate your DCA. Increase your bitcoin allocation. Upgrade to multisig if your stack has grown. Set up a succession plan so your family can actually access your bitcoin if something happens to you.
A few of these might surprise you. One is about training yourself to spend money — a real challenge for FIRE people who've spent years optimizing savings. Another: hold zero dollars. If bitcoin is your primary savings vehicle, why keep a balance in something that loses purchasing power every year? Tools like Fold, Strike, and River make it practical to run your financial life entirely on bitcoin rails.
21 resolutions because 21 million is the cap. Pick the 5 that match where you are, execute them consistently, and finish 2026 in a fundamentally stronger position.
https://firebtc.io/p/21-resolutions-for-2025

2026-02-28 17:14:13 UTC

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The FIRE BTC Compass tool now supports 7 major fiat currencies.
#nevent1q…gqev

2026-02-26 14:46:14 UTC

I set up a tiny bitcoin miner with my 9-year-old daughter on a Saturday afternoon. Posted a picture on X. Woke up to 1.4 million views.
The device is a Bitaxe. Size of a light bulb, 15 watts, couple hundred bucks. Runs a real ASIC chip, the same kind in industrial mining warehouses, just way smaller.
The odds of finding a block are about 1 in 5 million per day. Run it a year and that's 1 in 15,000. I'd need to run it 15,000 years to expect a hit.
Solo miners do win though. One hit block 912,632 and took home 3.125 BTC. Not me. Yet.
Bitcoin still lets anyone participate directly. No intermediary, no permission required. Just a miner, a power source, and curiosity. People are using mining heat for their homes, capturing flared gas for bitcoin, balancing power grids with hashrate.
My daughter got it right away. She just wanted to know what "hashes per second" means.
https://firebtc.io/p/hashrate-hopium

2026-02-24 15:17:02 UTC

In January 2018, Mr. Money Mustache — one of the godfathers of the FIRE movement — published a piece called "Why Bitcoin is Stupid." Bitcoin was trading around $14,000 at the time.
I was late too. First heard about bitcoin in 2011 at $10. Bought a little in 2014. Didn't get serious until 2018. The opportunity cost of not paying attention earlier is staggering.
Bitcoin looks dumb at first. Fixed supply. No CEO. No customer service. Doesn't care who you are or what your government thinks. You can't lobby it, inflate it, or shut it down.
That's the whole point. Bitcoin is simple by design — no moving parts, no politics, no exceptions. It just runs.
The FIRE community understood index fund DCA before anyone else. Same discipline, same time horizon, same conviction that compounding wins. The only difference is the asset.
Skepticism has an expiration date. At some point it stops being prudent and starts being expensive.
https://firebtc.io/p/why-bitcoin-is-stupid

2026-02-23 19:02:48 UTC

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Hasn’t been. But after 2008 the stock market had a similar 5yr CAGR. But nobody plans for retirement on a 5yr window of historical returns

2026-02-23 14:05:32 UTC

Traditional FIRE says multiply your annual expenses by 25 to find your number. That's the 4% rule — save $2.5 million to spend $100k a year.
Bitcoin changes the multiplier.
If you assume a conservative 25% annual growth rate (compared to stocks at 10%), the math shifts dramatically. Instead of 25x your expenses, you need 12.5x. That $2.5 million target becomes $1.25 million.
But here's where it gets interesting. That $1.25 million figure assumes you want to quit today. If you have time on your side, the target drops fast. Every 5 years of runway you're willing to work cuts your BTC goal by roughly a third. Need 14 BTC to retire right now? Wait 5 years and you need about 5. Wait 10 and you need 1.5.
The formula: annual expenses × 12.5, divided by your assumed future BTC price. Apply the "Rule of 3" for every 5-year stretch you can wait. Sprint hard on stacking early, then let bitcoin's growth do the heavy lifting.
https://firebtc.io/p/goalseek

2026-02-21 13:46:14 UTC

Income-focused investing costs you more than you think.
Every dividend, every rental check, every bond coupon comes at the expense of total return. You're getting paid to accept lower growth. The better approach: invest for total return, let compounding run, and sell down when you need it. Capital gains becomes your income.
Real estate makes this concrete. Investors who've sold entire portfolios to buy bitcoin are calculating the tradeoff: trade tenants, leaky roofs, eminent domain, transaction costs, and property taxes for an asset that's portable, divisible, and has outperformed everything. "Why wouldn't I do that?" is a harder question to answer than it sounds.
I went deep on this across three podcast appearances — with a long-time FIRE advocate, the Orange Pill Docs (two MDs teaching bitcoin to physicians), and a financial advisor who had Grok classify me as a "bitcoin evangelist." I'll take it. Links to all three episodes inside.
https://firebtc.io/p/on-the-circuit

2026-02-20 03:10:52 UTC

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This has nothing to do with Unchained. Not sure what you’re getting at

2026-02-19 20:21:54 UTC

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There’s no kyc or financial info sent anywhere. It’s stored in your browser.

2026-02-19 15:10:45 UTC

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Hmm, yes, it’s definitely live. Curious, what browser are you using? Let me know whatever you can so I can troubleshoot.

2026-02-19 13:54:18 UTC

I just launched the FIRE BTC Compass.
It's a free tool that shows you exactly where you stand on the path to financial independence — built for people who hold bitcoin.
Most FIRE calculators assume 100% stocks and a 4% withdrawal rate. That's broken for bitcoiners.
The Compass uses a BTC-adjusted target that accounts for bitcoin's asymmetric upside. If you hold bitcoin, your FIRE number is lower than you think.
No account. No tracking. Your data never leaves your browser.
Try it: calc.firebtc.io

2026-02-09 13:28:34 UTC

Traditional FIRE is built on a solid foundation: cut expenses, boost savings, automate investments, let compounding work. It's a proven path to reclaim your time.
But the entire strategy rests on assumptions. That inflation stays contained. That markets perform as expected. That you can access your wealth when needed. That the rules don't change.
Your FIRE portfolio lives in permissioned environments. Brokerages. Tax-advantaged accounts. Real estate. All governed by systems you don't control.
When the U.S. suspended required minimum distributions in 2020, it wasn't catastrophic. But it proved the point: governments rewrite rules under pressure. Your 401(k) only works if the system cooperates.
Bitcoin removes this vulnerability. Self-custodied, borderless, immune to monetary debasement. You don't need permission from brokers, banks, or central planners to access your wealth.
And the asymmetry changes the timeline. With a fixed supply of 21 million and rising global demand, bitcoin can cut your path to financial independence in half. Same discipline, faster results.
You don't need to abandon traditional FIRE. But upgrading the foundation from permissioned to sovereign wealth makes the entire strategy more resilient—and potentially faster.
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/financial-independence-upgraded

2026-02-08 13:25:56 UTC

When you start working, your paycheck is everything. It's how you pay bills, fund your life, and build your first savings.
But here's the shift most people never make: that savings portfolio should become your primary wealth engine, not your job.
Think of your investments as your real side gig. It starts small, but compounds relentlessly. Each dollar you invest becomes a worker that never sleeps, building wealth while you focus on other things.
The people who reach financial freedom aren't the ones with the highest salaries. They're the ones who flipped the script — who built their balance sheet until it outpaced their labor.
There's a moment when your assets create more new wealth in a year than your job ever could. That's when your job becomes the side hustle.
Real wealth comes from ownership, not just labor. Your balance sheet is your ownership stake in the future.
If you use bitcoin as your core savings vehicle, this transition can happen even more powerfully. Bitcoin's hard-capped supply makes it a uniquely strong foundational asset for a personal balance sheet.
https://firebtc.io/p/making-your-job-your-side-gig

2026-02-05 17:30:49 UTC

Bitcoin is down A LOT between the time I wrote this on Monday and the time it was posted today 😅
https://www.firebtc.io/p/when-conviction-gets-tested

2026-02-05 00:36:08 UTC

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It only gets access to what you let it. Of course, that could be easier said than done….

2026-02-05 00:33:09 UTC

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And we thought the bitcoin rabbit hole was deep!

2026-02-01 00:59:52 UTC

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Help my buddy Hal out!
#nevent1q…4v5g

2026-01-30 17:44:06 UTC

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Eventually 😅

2026-01-30 16:19:58 UTC

Episode 1 of the new FIRE BTC podcast is live!
🎙️ Bitcoin, Career, and Building Wealth with Joe Burnett.
🔸Joe’s journey discovering BTC to working in the industry
🔸Building a life on a bitcoin standard
🔸Spending bitcoin, borrowing against it, and navigating relationships
Watch it here: https://youtu.be/VNdz1byuu-w?si=MK8NhVfv19SiAufW

2026-01-29 14:33:49 UTC

The tax code is built for investors, not W-2 employees. If you reach FIRE and stop working, your W-2 income disappears. Now you're living off long-term capital gains from your portfolio, which are taxed at 0%, 15%, or 20% instead of the ordinary 10-37% income tax brackets.
For 2025, the 0% LTCG bracket applies to taxable incomes up to $96,700 for married filers. Add the $30,000 standard deduction, and you could realize $126,700 in capital gains while paying zero federal tax. If you live in Florida, Texas, or Wyoming (no state income tax), you pay nothing to anyone.
Most FIRE practitioners obsess over 401(k) contribution limits and tax-deferred accounts. They're optimizing for the accumulation phase while ignoring how they'll actually fund their lifestyle in retirement. The real tax advantage isn't deferral—it's living off assets that qualify for LTCG treatment.
Bitcoin holders have an edge here. Dividends count as income, so if you hold dividend-paying index funds, those payments reduce your available room in the 0% bracket. Bitcoin has no yield, so the entire $126k can come from realized gains on bitcoin sales.
Tax laws can change, and if you're planning fat FIRE above $125k/year, you'll hit the 15% or 20% brackets. But the structure is there: the tax code rewards people who build wealth through long-term investment and live off capital appreciation.
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/tax-free-fire
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2026-01-20 17:42:04 UTC

Hey @nprofile…54wh any issues reported with your LN URL? It seems to be down for me.

2026-01-17 21:06:43 UTC

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😅

2026-01-08 13:54:28 UTC

Controversial take:
We need to step back from the emotional framing of the “housing affordability crisis” and look at it through a longer-term, structural lens.
Homeownership played an outsized role in wealth creation for prior generations, but it did so under a very specific set of conditions that no longer exist in the same way.
When the environment changes, it is a mistake to assume the same strategies must remain optimal.
Much of what people perceive as housing “outperformance” is actually the result of leverage and forced savings, not superior returns.
Over decades, homeowners inject large amounts of additional capital, accept illiquidity, and take on concentrated risk.
When compared honestly, housing succeeded less because it was a great asset and more because it bundled leverage, inflation protection, and lifestyle consumption into a single, default savings vehicle.
The decline in housing affordability does not automatically mean future generations are doomed to be poorer. The opportunity set has shifted.
Work is more flexible, capital requirements to build businesses are lower, and wealth creation is no longer as tightly coupled to owning physical property.
Homeownership still has real personal and lifestyle value, and for many people it will continue to make sense. The mistake is treating it as a financial inevitability or a moral benchmark.
The broader point is about adaptation: the rules have changed, and building wealth today requires clearer thinking, flexibility, and a willingness to move beyond models optimized for a different era.
I dive deeper into this topic and run the numbers in the most recent issue of FIRE BTC.
You can check it out here:
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/homeward-bound
Don’t forget to subscribe if you found this interesting. I hit your inbox each week with takes on personal finance and bitcoin.

2025-12-31 17:07:22 UTC

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IKR 😅

2025-12-31 16:18:45 UTC

2025 broke a lot of models.
Bitcoin made new ATHs… yet finished the year lower.
Stocks ripped. Gold surged. Bitcoin chopped.
A frustrating year for price—but an important one for thinking clearly about FIRE, risk, and assumptions.
The FIRE BTC year-end review is live.
🧵👇
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/2025-fire-btc-year-in-review

2025-12-12 18:52:27 UTC

Your brain runs on less power than a dim light bulb—about 20 watts.
Yet that tiny energy budget supports a level of cognition that megawatt-scale AI clusters still struggle to match.
This contrast reveals a fundamental design principle: The most capable systems are not the ones with the most resources. They are the ones with the best constraints.
We see this same divide in the monetary world:
🔸 Fiat Money behaves like a massive AI cluster. It relies on complexity, constant intervention, and brute force scale. It is expansion-driven, mirroring bureaucracy.
🔸 Bitcoin behaves like the human brain. It operates within hard limits, simple rules, and decentralized validation. It is constraint-driven, mirroring biology.
One design leads to noise and fragility. The other leads to signal and stability.
In my latest piece for FIRE BTC, I explore why nature’s most efficient systems reveal Bitcoin’s deepest strength—and why architecture matters more than energy consumption.
Read the full article here: https://firebtc.substack.com/p/brains-bitcoin-and-the-power-of-constraints

2025-12-05 15:37:23 UTC

Cutting $800/month erases $240,000 from your FIRE number and can add millions to your future stack when redirected into assets. Most people never see the leverage hiding in their expenses.
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/trim-and-turbocharge

2025-11-28 14:42:21 UTC

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@nprofile…p34a I assume you know I can’t give you tax advice, but I can point you to the resources for you to DYOR and understand our position and how we approach it:
https://help.unchained.com/what-is-loan-collateral-and-what-does-unchained-do-with-it
https://www.unchained.com/blog/ultimate-guide-bitcoin-loans?_gl=1*c3ao0f*_gcl_au*MTYwODcyMDQwMi4xNzYwNDc2MTQ2*_ga*NDkyNDgxNjkyLjE3NjA0NzYxNDY.*_ga_N2E2DZCQWE*czE3NjQzNDA4NTUkbzIxJGcxJHQxNzY0MzQwODY0JGo1MSRsMCRoNDU2MDc0NjQx

2025-11-13 20:54:00 UTC

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And yet you can’t control policy. All you can control is you.
I actually agree with you, but just recognize the world as it is, not how I want it to be.

2025-11-13 20:51:50 UTC

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Great. You do you.

2025-11-13 20:08:05 UTC

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It may be insane and retarded for it to exist, but that doesn’t mean you can’t benefit from it.
And apparently a 50 year mortgage is sinful usury, but a 30 year isn’t? So where’s the line then?

2025-11-13 20:06:16 UTC

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Will it lower your payment?

2025-11-13 19:54:05 UTC

Most people think a 50-year mortgage is insane. But when you actually run the numbers, the math tells a very different story.
Liquidity + compounding beats faster payoff—and the gap is bigger than you think.
Full breakdown here 👇
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/trumps-50-year-mortgage-play

2025-11-06 17:20:06 UTC

The economy isn’t just unequal — it’s split in two.
One side owns assets, leverages credit, and rides the wave of monetary expansion. The other works harder each year just to stand still.
That’s the K-shaped economy. And it’s not new — it’s the natural outcome of fiat money.
Your future doesn’t have to follow the lower arm.
Learn how to climb the upper one
👉 https://firebtc.substack.com/p/special-k

2025-11-02 23:16:50 UTC

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It’s definitely an option worth exploring if you’re self-employed

2025-10-30 16:32:53 UTC

They say fortune favors the bold—but it’s deeper than that.
Every intentional action we take tilts the odds of our future. Over time, those small ripples compound into a new reality.
Bitcoin works in much the same way. It replaces uncertainty with certainty—giving us the foundation to act boldly toward financial independence.
This week’s FIRE BTC explores how bold action shapes your universe (and how Bitcoin amplifies it).
👉 Read the full post: https://firebtc.substack.com/p/favorable-fortunes

2025-10-23 13:58:45 UTC

Gold’s utility makes it worse money.
Do you know why?
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/gloating-goldbugs

2025-10-16 19:26:36 UTC

Most people don’t have an “emergency fund.” They have a fear fund — cash that melts while inflation compounds against them.
In Emergency Economics, I break down why the “safe” choice of holding cash might be your biggest financial mistake — and how to build true resilience through rational, compounding assets instead of fear-based ones.
Read it here 👇
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/emergency-economics

2025-10-11 16:08:31 UTC

On a day like yesterday, there’s only one thing to do
https://blossom.primal.net/78f1b8abc1c0235a7db12bc72e42eb3ede15409eb76fc50327aeee4903351fbc.mp4

2025-10-09 17:44:52 UTC

Most people plan their finances FORWARD. But the Stoics would tell you to plan BACKWARD from death. It’s a bit morbid — but it can help you buy your life back, one year at a time.
💀 “Working Backward from Death” — new FIRE BTC drop.
👉 https://firebtc.substack.com/p/working-backward-from-death

2025-10-07 16:08:22 UTC

One re-frame that can make your FIRE journey easier: Fund your last year first!
If you’re 40 and expect to live until age 95, you only need to save ~$5k at 5% real annual return to cover $80k of expenses.
That’s bite-sized savings.

2025-10-06 19:01:25 UTC

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The golf price was artificially fixed at $35/oz in 1971 but was $180 in 1974 when it was freely traded. That’s probably a better number to start from, which would imply more like 0.85 oz gold ~$3,300

2025-10-06 15:59:42 UTC

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EXACTLY

2025-10-06 15:22:41 UTC

My dad paid $156 for tuition for a semester of college in 1971 🤯
https://blossom.primal.net/08b244a57549e00f3077bb21efbdd2a908da22a617955c2f531baf33d7c75ec2.jpg

2025-10-06 00:29:49 UTC

New ATH last night, eh?
https://blossom.primal.net/7ab7c6695e32d50f786289eb147adc629c6f6164e81204ae8eab2165925acf22.jpg

2025-10-01 23:24:14 UTC

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Tomato, tomahto

2025-10-01 23:17:05 UTC

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Yeah, I agree. Sounds like we’re saying the same thing

2025-10-01 22:40:53 UTC

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You should do both. DCA with new income. Lump sum when you come into larger amounts

2025-10-01 22:38:28 UTC

One thing I’ve found difficult with FIRE is learning how to spend the value I’ve saved.
You delay gratification for so long, then feel uneasy and nervous about spending it down.
Spending is a muscle that must be built, just like saving.

2025-10-01 19:45:35 UTC

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Not if you have the choice of lump sum!

2025-10-01 14:27:30 UTC

This week’s issue of FIRE BTC is staged.
I’m digging into the math behind this lady’s tragic lottery win.
Hit subscribe so you don’t miss it!
firebtc.substack.com/subscribe
https://blossom.primal.net/ba0b82bea7564c05c75ef06dce2430f0451b43ed3eb95544ea3bfe50a6fd8236.jpg

2025-10-01 12:49:58 UTC

FIRE folks pretend to be investors lol
https://blossom.primal.net/3727ba81da6e72827da205061fb5b10d7eede7be5fdc050ff7781342a1452345.jpg

2025-10-01 12:40:33 UTC

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Good point! I guess $ > BTC 🤷‍♂️

2025-10-01 12:31:35 UTC

“You can’t live in a bitcoin”
No shit! What the hell does that have to do with saving for the long-term???

2025-09-30 15:57:40 UTC

Rally, Chop, Rally, Chop, Rally, Chop...
@npub1qh5…eh9r : "These semi-regular periods of chopsolidation are an important signal that the Bitcoin market is maturing and evolving, as volatility capture strategies proliferate, and institutional interest becomes an increasingly dominant feature"
https://blossom.primal.net/9660526483ae07464d5ead9d1eac9da38b74fe682e50cf3cff5fbfbe0c8575f2.jpg

2025-09-30 01:01:32 UTC

We don’t need more houses.
We need to stop encouraging houses to be used as financial assets.
The money is broken.
Fix the money, fix the world.
https://blossom.primal.net/7b78642ca1254afaca1e7793d9085d0753134b76b32a115c5be41bb3a72b9303.jpg

2025-09-29 23:36:05 UTC

Diversification is a big word that means less bitcoin.

2025-09-29 17:38:26 UTC

Sell your real estate for bitcoin!
No more
- leaky roofs
- annoying tenants
- clogged toilets
…all while still underperforming 🫠
https://blossom.primal.net/4710b6451428007ee58c303dcd60b4cad636148bd0f4abc2f190f9909278014e.mov

2025-09-28 23:59:26 UTC

Have you stacked hard enough to feel comfortable when bitcoin makes a new all time high?

2025-09-28 12:12:10 UTC

Remember when they lied about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and then started two 20-year wars?
https://blossom.primal.net/f0b281ccc005901acc941f22adb0a6078b1316741fe79126d6564e607d38cbeb.jpg

2025-09-28 12:03:35 UTC

Good morning. Bitcoin will be just fine.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.

2025-09-26 13:30:18 UTC

I’ve had a few podcast conversations recently where I dig into the pursuit of financial independence with bitcoin.
Check them out here:
https://substackfwd.xyz/?url=https://firebtc.substack.com/p/on-the-circuit

2025-09-23 18:07:34 UTC

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An American pastime!

2025-09-23 18:05:58 UTC

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True. Still don’t have one! 😭

2025-09-23 18:04:31 UTC

Chipped one in for birdie today. Is there a better thrill?

2025-09-22 20:59:47 UTC

People assume using money means spending it.
In reality, the main use of money is holding it—keeping your options open.
Bitcoin is built for that.

2025-09-22 16:19:07 UTC

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I think we’re about to FO! 😉

2025-09-22 15:56:04 UTC

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Does not compute 🤖

2025-09-22 15:53:58 UTC

This is the most common argument I see from the Knots folks
https://blossom.primal.net/8d7935d690b40c531c9b961d3a8e70062ff0c1624f60445a8cb36fa0b38e6337.jpg

2025-09-22 15:00:23 UTC

Global debt keeps climbing.
Bitcoin’s supply stays fixed at 21 million.
All you need to know.

2025-09-21 22:52:14 UTC

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Ok great. I don’t disagree. But you are only chirping about this now, instead of two years ago when taproot was activated.
If that’s the main issue, why is nobody talking about it and only focusing on this op_return setting being changed?

2025-09-21 22:48:10 UTC

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Your argument rests on it being a legal liability to have CP on your node. Are you saying that SOME cp is OK and defensible but a lot of it is not Ok and indefensible?
Seems to me that it’s black or white. Either you have it on your node or not. And if that’s the case, then bitcoin is vulnerable to just a single instance.

2025-09-21 22:45:03 UTC

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Right now, “images” are stored on chain via inscriptions/ordinals. They are only technically limited by the block size limit of 4 mb. So, yes. As you stated in point one, this is already possible.
And I think Luke is stretching quite a bit here, making a distinction without a difference.

2025-09-21 22:31:59 UTC

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Yet they could do this right now through various other means, and apparently that’s not an issue for you. It’s only if they use this one path through Core v30, that will spell the end of bitcoin. Right?

2025-09-21 22:14:39 UTC

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Sure, governments who want to destroy bitcoin are just standing around frustrated right now, but as soon as this change happens, they will finally be able to do it.

2025-09-21 22:09:58 UTC

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You’re welcome!

2025-09-21 16:03:59 UTC

The best thing about the Core v Knots ordeal is more people running nodes, even if they don’t fully understand how it all works yet.

2025-09-21 15:35:33 UTC

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> They already bypass the mempool with services like slipstream and others.
Exactly.
The OP is simply pointing out that actors who are not concerned with cost (like nation states) but are motivated to destroy bitcoin will go to any length necessary to get their shit into a block, which will be stored on every node that doesn’t prune, Knots, Core, or otherwise.

2025-09-21 14:41:03 UTC

Non-economic actors who want to destroy bitcoin will gladly pay a 4x higher fee for OP_RETURN, but they’re too lazy to bypass the mempool altogether.
Make it make sense.

2025-09-20 18:19:51 UTC

Financial independence is a spectrum, not black and white.

2025-09-19 19:20:40 UTC

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I think it's until she dies or the company providing it goes bankrupt - whichever one comes first.

2025-09-19 19:19:25 UTC

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No, no it isn’t

2025-09-19 18:32:59 UTC

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A vie! (For life)