The 4% rule is a useful starting point, not a guarantee. And it was built for a portfolio of stocks and bonds that doesn't look anything like what most of us hold.
Bitcoin's drawdowns make stocks look tame. The 2017 cycle brought an 80% crash that took three years to recover, and the 2021 cycle dropped 76% over 28 months.
The other factor is how you fund withdrawals. With a stock portfolio, dividends cover part of your spending automatically. With bitcoin, every dollar you need means selling.
Bigger upside, bigger downside. The strategy needs to account for both.
The blended portfolios perform better in the stress test because stocks get liquidated first, giving bitcoin time to recover. The non-bitcoin allocation is insurance, and like all insurance, it has a cost.
So how do you decide how much insurance to carry? That depends on your risk tolerance, your timeline, and how close you are to actually needing to live off this portfolio.
Bitcoin is the best asset for a FIRE approach to personal finance. But it does require a slightly different playbook.
Read the full piece: https://firebtc.io/p/surviving-the-bear
Trey
npub1m6…ue2p9
2026-05-25 14:09:08 UTC
Author Public Key
npub1m6y9qq06c74trgs60ya320pgmhz6099grra5lw04akyuxvcz7lvq9ue2p9Seen on
wss://nos.lolPublished at
2026-05-25 14:09:08 UTCEvent JSON
{
"id": "b2f44889df8be1174b8980d706d2ba406519aecf15e7d5205c5eb2844d02e4e5",
"pubkey": "de885001fac7aab1a21a793b153c28ddc5a794a818fb4fb9f5ed89c33302f7d8",
"created_at": 1779718148,
"kind": 1,
"tags": [],
"content": "The 4% rule is a useful starting point, not a guarantee. And it was built for a portfolio of stocks and bonds that doesn't look anything like what most of us hold.\n\nBitcoin's drawdowns make stocks look tame. The 2017 cycle brought an 80% crash that took three years to recover, and the 2021 cycle dropped 76% over 28 months.\n\nThe other factor is how you fund withdrawals. With a stock portfolio, dividends cover part of your spending automatically. With bitcoin, every dollar you need means selling.\n\nBigger upside, bigger downside. The strategy needs to account for both.\n\nThe blended portfolios perform better in the stress test because stocks get liquidated first, giving bitcoin time to recover. The non-bitcoin allocation is insurance, and like all insurance, it has a cost.\n\nSo how do you decide how much insurance to carry? That depends on your risk tolerance, your timeline, and how close you are to actually needing to live off this portfolio.\n\nBitcoin is the best asset for a FIRE approach to personal finance. But it does require a slightly different playbook.\n\nRead the full piece: https://firebtc.io/p/surviving-the-bear",
"sig": "8d94246c0899e863a372521366b50389921ab928ce17cf8c53832de150d169189ff9db5e444ba18ad27f995e3b4ce0c2204d90ab80c6bb5ec368caef133c9b3e"
}