My thoughts are that Trump will try Syria/Lybia but when he finds out that the Kurds don't want to march on Tehran, he will pivot to Irak 2... and soon find himself in Afghanistan scenario.
China will be delighted to have the US weaken itself economically and militarily in another quagmire and use the diplomatic repercussions to strengthen its position in Africa and its alliance with Pakistan.
Russia will help Iran in the same way that the US has helped Ukraine. Enough to help them last, not enough to let them win. All while profiting from expensive oil prices and better relations with China.
The long term consequences for the US will be similar to Vietnam: economic crisis, bankruptcy and debt reestructuring. Instead of isolating China, they will reinforce its diplomatic position, while at the same time weakening the rationale for its own "defensive" alliance.
flix / Flix
npub1vx…q78px
2026-03-07 12:30:06 UTC
in reply to nevent1q…znqc
Author Public Key
npub1vxz5ja46rffch8076xcalx6zu4mqy7gwjd2vtxy3heanwy7mvd7qqq78pxSeen on
wss://relay.damus.ioPublished at
2026-03-07 12:30:06 UTCEvent JSON
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