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Bitcoin, Nostr, history, sci-fi, FOSS, P2P...

Public Key

npub1vxz5ja46rffch8076xcalx6zu4mqy7gwjd2vtxy3heanwy7mvd7qqq78px

NIP-05 Address

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsxrp2fw6ap55utnhldrvwlndpw2asz0y8fx4x9nzgmu7ehz0dkxlqpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0ds40agn2

Publishing to

relay.damus.io

nos.lol

Author Public Key

npub1vxz5ja46rffch8076xcalx6zu4mqy7gwjd2vtxy3heanwy7mvd7qqq78px

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Last Notes

2026-04-13 11:34:07 UTC

Iran negotiators should have offered to end their nuclear programme... in exchange for Israel ending theirs.
With the same international inspection regime for both.

2026-04-12 15:04:38 UTC

- reply

@nprofile…8dqx @nprofile…qt3a @nprofile…z6sn you were wrong.
Too optimistic. You sweet summer child!
Better luck next time.

2026-04-10 16:49:59 UTC

They are using F-16 to shoot down drones?
It makes for a very good videogame or top gun movie...
But it sends a very worrying signal about the supply of interceptors.
I'm not sure that it makes financial sense to lose an F-16 to take down two shaheds...

2026-04-08 13:30:41 UTC

Iran officially confirmed to accept Bitcoin for Hormuz toll.
I did not expect this to happen so fast!
https://blossom.primal.net/4b0331a12b15253e3efe39ee2e4a40ccd808dc17b7dc71eeb7201116da954762.png
https://www.ft.com/content/02aefac4-ea62-48db-9326-c0da373b11b8

2026-04-03 09:41:05 UTC

Bloomberg confirms Iran is accepting stablecoins for Hormuz transit tolls.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-01/strait-of-hormuz-ships-paying-iran-yuan-and-crypto-tolls-for-safe-passage

2026-04-03 09:37:35 UTC

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More reports of stablecoin use for Hormuz toll booth.
https://www.coinspeaker.com/iran-crypto-yuan-hormuz-shipping-tolls/
#nevent1q…q2y8

2026-04-01 12:39:18 UTC

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Without a frame of reference, how can you deduce impossibility?
Neither inductive nor deductive logic is possible in a vacuum.
But it is fun to philosophise...

2026-03-28 11:04:48 UTC

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I think it was pretty obvious this time.
But you never know... the market is full of surprises.
https://blossom.primal.net/2c94e761f4141f8fab5fd1b8e1480bc33f898b42e356572f3a6e67d5bb0b5b31.png
#nevent1q…tqlu

2026-03-26 19:12:56 UTC

This is what I have gathered on Iran stablecoin use:
1. Central bank of Iran has used stablecoins to avoid sanctions since 2024. ✅️
2. IRGC has had USDT since 2025. ✅️
3. USDT and USC wallets have been blocked due to Chainanalysis tying them to Iran ✅️
4. Houthis were using stablecoins in 2025 ✅️
5. Rumours of Hormuz toll booth accepting USDT ❓️ - unverified so far

2026-03-25 08:24:21 UTC

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Yep. They are going to have to attack themselves for buying UST via USDT...
Another thing they overlooked.

2026-03-24 12:52:09 UTC

Apparently Iran is accepting USDT for Hormuz toll payments.
They obviously don't understand that those funds can be easily blocked.
They will learn soon.
Then they will have to use Bitcoin.
We might go directly from petrodollar to petrobitcoin bypassing the yuan entirely.

2026-03-23 16:46:40 UTC

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Why would I see it if I am not following them?
Let users control their feed.
Default (onboarding) feeds should be heavily curated.
Same for followlists recommended to newbies.
Ideally you should not be offered content outside your Web of Trust unless you are specifically looking for it.

2026-03-23 11:32:32 UTC

#TACO ?
https://blossom.primal.net/c4e09b11956e4dfc4dbb346d66d932dc97c8ea77c137ea2e3955f7323f996711.jpg

2026-03-23 09:04:23 UTC

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Interesting.
Stablecoins are as easy to censor, block as bank accounts.
Their only advantage over legacy fiat is ux.
#nevent1q…mxsd

2026-03-23 08:30:13 UTC

https://www.projectnomad.us/
This looks interesting.

2026-03-23 08:19:37 UTC

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Hear me out...
Make a #DEX with the exact same UX as TPB.

2026-03-23 08:01:02 UTC

The Not So Wild, Wild West: Property Rights on the Frontier
https://www.amazon.com/Not-So-Wild-West-Economics/dp/0804748543
https://blossom.primal.net/2d1098f74ce4a9b80b6de3c0a0d7ee2cfbad4bd40d5ca581def635967c707f9e.png

2026-03-20 12:53:26 UTC

@nprofile…kclk new wallets buggy?
Tried to zap... no sats. Balance emptied.
Is this happening to anyone else?

2026-03-19 08:22:38 UTC

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Confirmed.
#nevent1q…tqlu

2026-03-19 07:59:35 UTC

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I've always thought that stablecoin-bitcoin atomic swaps would be great for Bitcoin precisely because stablecoins are shitcoins.
At some point people will panic out of stablecoins... and I want the exit ramps into bitcoin to be as permissionless as possible.
#nevent1q…g0c0

2026-03-18 09:04:05 UTC

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Simple business model.
https://blossom.primal.net/1973be9520d3daf4c498b2561ea84a18584d84728ab33d54c260ef1c028a92f6.png

2026-03-18 08:56:44 UTC

Joe Kent letter. Interesting read.
#war
https://blossom.primal.net/c7bcdf593c4bed319c1151788b5f755df6945c51db3b4c98f8ab4f2b4f6cc6c1.png

2026-03-18 08:47:12 UTC

Mining the straits is not a binary option.
#Iran could just partially mine. If they mine the southern section, they could leave a channel going by Bandar Abbas, enabling them to fully control traffic. They could turn it almost into a toll booth.
https://blossom.primal.net/96a5de3674693a28c8ff1fda3d394160572ff07d13b97f6d2475a0fa06702efe.png

2026-03-17 16:59:57 UTC

Open Source Blueprints for Civilization. Build Yourself.
#FOSS will save the world.
https://blossom.primal.net/f5b319d010ad8fceb694f1919dd88eba0840f97a206105ef7ec6e380c997553b.png
https://www.opensourceecology.org/

2026-03-17 10:15:35 UTC

Shipping around Hormuz is another good indicator obviously.
https://www.shipxplorer.com/
https://blossom.primal.net/86272489bb76be0bc62df0f2d76899f20ca3061d48c6ac6a0c5ceeacdc845675.png

2026-03-15 13:51:23 UTC

Segundo intento...
#hispano #followlist
https://following.space/d/3ec54c78-d5de-4877-87fd-cbb7edf47a78?p=e3eb2eaca428217263ae49b258c0540aa4f6fb81dec08f69c664c1f0c4a94801

2026-03-15 13:44:37 UTC

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Bitcoin --> Private Property
Nostr --> Free Speech
3Dprint --> Self Defense
Everything else, we can easily solve with voluntary cooperation.

2026-03-15 13:31:40 UTC

How do I share a follow list?
#AskNostr

2026-03-15 13:08:10 UTC

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You might. You use a lot of hashtags 😆
That's the Nostr superpower.

2026-03-15 13:00:43 UTC

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Follow lists are great. Much better to let people choose from those at onboarding than the "keep recommended follows" option.

2026-03-15 10:18:02 UTC

Simple questions that I see the media ignoring on the #war
Can Iran survive strikes on its water infrastructure?
Can US Gulf allies survive strikes on water infrastructure?

2026-03-15 10:15:21 UTC

Simple questions that I see the media ignoring on the #war
How long can Iran last without selling oil?
How long can the US take $100+ oil?

2026-03-15 10:03:53 UTC

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I agree.
But I can see how some people might misinterpret.
Again, he deserves my respect.

2026-03-15 10:02:11 UTC

Simple questions that I see the media ignoring on the #war
Is Iran getting ISR and targeting help from Russia? China?
Do they have satellite surveillance?

2026-03-15 09:59:43 UTC

Simple questions that I see the media ignoring on the #war
What is Pakistan doing?
What is India doing?
What is Turkey doing?
Those 3 neighbours have nukes (In Turkey' case they don't own them, but they are there).

2026-03-15 09:55:40 UTC

Simple questions that I see the media ignoring on the #war
How close can US ships get to Iran before drone, missile intercept time is too short?
How precise are Iran's drones, missiles?

2026-03-15 09:53:17 UTC

Simple questions that I see the media ignoring on the #war
How many troops does Iran have?
How many troops does the US have? How many in the Gulf?

2026-03-15 09:47:32 UTC

Simple questions that I see the media ignoring on the #war
How many missiles does Iran have?
How many interceptors does the US have?

2026-03-15 09:29:15 UTC

- reply

He did write "Mastering Ethereum"...
But yeah, he was a great Bitcoin educator. One of the best. Respect is due.

2026-03-15 08:15:07 UTC

"The first casualty of war is the truth"
Aeschylus (525-456 BC)

2026-03-15 08:09:03 UTC

"Seize territory around the waterway with ground troop"
WSJ floating the idea of a "limited" ground invasion.
🤦
https://blossom.primal.net/a176558049b08e2d92801800663f7febba2acc4b972691e55d893d782bb5242b.png

2026-03-15 08:07:50 UTC

“Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America nor, for that matter, in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship. ... [V]oice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.”
― Hermann Göring

2026-03-14 09:35:02 UTC

Almost even odds for boots on the ground in March!
Another big jump in 24hrs, another Saturday escalation.
https://polymarket.com/event/us-forces-enter-iran-by
https://blossom.primal.net/68c61ec180267504cf0bbd3045c5f11f2c2ca295f7a091013af1891896e485d7.png

2026-03-13 16:43:12 UTC

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I think that @nprofile…wv2n worked something like that back a few years ago.
You just zapped and got a confirmation dm.

2026-03-13 16:41:28 UTC

Hear me out...
Polymarkets but with zaps ⚡
No account needed, no registration. All you need is an npub and LN address.
To bet you just zap the YES or NO note.

2026-03-13 16:36:23 UTC

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Yep. Big jump today.
https://polymarket.com/event/us-forces-enter-iran-by
https://blossom.primal.net/9beb0120a905f32e83fe757b1d5a910f998711cb17dc3fe8da822038a0a2111b.png

2026-03-13 16:34:23 UTC

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Marines mobilised today.
Probability of "boots on the ground" just went up considerably.

2026-03-13 16:26:55 UTC

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Yeah... this is far from over.
You don't need 2,500 Marines for escort duty.
#nevent1q…s9v6

2026-03-13 16:22:19 UTC

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It looks very much like the start of a 20%+ correction.
https://blossom.primal.net/5b7a2e937714a485f3ab8282f4d11ab44b90925570c519fa7c529b1b82b4f61a.png

2026-03-13 16:16:27 UTC

I have not done TA in a while... but this chart looks awful.
I would not long this with government money.
#SPY
https://blossom.primal.net/04a2feb00db5efb8431a2b26c29f0ef6759079d355d94a446ca5183fa2e1f076.png

2026-03-13 10:44:40 UTC

89% delete recommendation.
Loving the prompt!
https://bettereu.com/
https://blossom.primal.net/7a2c395f536e0ec7b33f790e6cf4fcf4ae4ec2e42214aaca5e61b811b1e82ead.png

2026-03-13 10:38:32 UTC

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Deregulation might become easier this time, thanks to AI.
https://blossom.primal.net/5f97f7b46148c47c29be353daad999f664a0eecb4bfbe64210be11aae5ebac6a.png

2026-03-13 09:14:58 UTC

As societies become more complex and sophisticated, rules and laws accumulate until they are too many, too complex, too restrictive.
"Corruptissima re publica plurimae leges" in the words of Tacitus.
Historically hyperregulation has 3 solutions:
1. Deregulation (Milei, Erhard)
2. Codification (Justinian, Napoleon)
3. Revolution
#regulation

2026-03-12 12:54:49 UTC

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Polymarkets is pricing a short war. Over by May with 70% prob.
I think that it's too optimistic and that the odds will get worse for peace over the next few days.
https://blossom.primal.net/4ee10ac86dd2a9ed588b69c851c63c518d39c3903223e5ab0d9a4a9b1c2e6ee5.png

2026-03-12 12:30:06 UTC

I'm updating scenario probabilites based on latest developments.
The possibilities for quick negotiation have almost completely evaporated.
The US will need boots on the ground, even if it's very limited and just at a few points near the coast. My most probable scenario at this moment is Iraq 1 (1990).
There is still a reasonable probability that the US and Israel could pull back and limit themselves to a siege/embargo of sorts.
https://blossom.primal.net/210d2d2c7f63dc7106f6341a0ddfc0f44542387c8eb414009ecdffebd06f7cd9.png

2026-03-12 12:16:28 UTC

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I think that we can reduce significantly the probabilities of the most optimistic scenarios.
The situation is in no way conducive to a short war, followed by negotiations.
#nevent1q…aft4

2026-03-12 11:44:37 UTC

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I have been asking myself how the Iran war was going to affect the AI bubble.
Rate hikes is one.
Helium is two.
If the war lasts... expect the bubble to pop.
#nevent1q…takl

2026-03-12 10:18:30 UTC

Big new push in the EU for censorship. Applauded by all the usual suspects.
#Nostr is necessary.

2026-03-12 10:04:48 UTC

The problem with AI is that the result always looks good, until you zoom in.
Always some typos, always loses precision. Still... it is fast.
#history #timeline
https://blossom.primal.net/51959a097fce72c63d50189bb1df85f077a2fd306d58381deee081ce0324b164.png

2026-03-12 09:56:46 UTC

"Never let a crisis go to waste"
Spain PM Pedro Sánchez call for accelerated digital euro launch.
#cbdc #hispano
https://www.libertaddigital.com/libremercado/2026-03-12/sanchez-pide-adelantar-la-entrada-del-euro-digital-mientras-suecia-defiende-el-dinero-efectivo-en-plena-incertidumbre-7372848/

2026-03-11 11:12:04 UTC

The amount of war propaganda flooding media is astounding.
It's reached a point where you are closer to the truth ignoring it completely.
Searching for accurate bits of info is hard work.

2026-03-11 08:56:09 UTC

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Daniel Batten is a hero.
"Against stupidity the gods themselves battle in vain"

2026-03-10 17:26:52 UTC

Acabo de grabar con @nprofile…ymkh @nprofile…egnu @nprofile…w6ug y @nprofile…ldsq sobre Nostr.
¡Muchas gracias!
#hispano #hola

2026-03-10 13:40:39 UTC

This is just a rough approximation. But you can see the alignment between climate and artifact production.
Mediterraneans definitely produced (and traded) more pottery when it was warmer.
Of course the artifact count suffers heavily from selection and survivor bias... but the sample is still large enough that it is a good economic proxy.
https://blossom.primal.net/eafcc34b31b4bad8e2b0e623c445b97ec77bfa91925c70098d0aae9d37714a7a.jpg

2026-03-10 13:23:11 UTC

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It's not lining up perfectly... Still some imporvement required.
Minoan warming OK
Roman warming OK
(Late) Medieval warming seems to be a bit off.
https://blossom.primal.net/2ed7a1ed1b93d9e707ba78fb1314e341ff9e5c762ffc46e6e86fba24824dc4db.png

2026-03-10 13:12:21 UTC

Art and data align.
The main branch curves with historical climate data, which in turn affects the East-West power balance.
Mediterranean trading in bronze age vessels cares a lot about the weather. Just ask Odysseus!
#history #timeline
https://blossom.primal.net/d6afe37f1081a750469b9d2226ad7a080d91a20720cd455f0afa755aefdfdad2.png

2026-03-10 13:07:27 UTC

The art and the data align reasonably well.
#history #timeline
https://blossom.primal.net/702ca8744b5ad47554c929664795836378dab5bb5239b72b3932d3fad4b680ae.png

2026-03-10 11:33:57 UTC

Hey @nprofile…z45p
Do you like this style?
https://blossom.primal.net/0c1af10f35f65e1e2684246187036016d25fd00c0b64cababbf3376c81a8dff0.png

2026-03-10 10:33:27 UTC

If you want to read some good sci-fi about the Singularity, I highly recommend Vernor Vinge's "Marooned in Realtime".
https://blossom.primal.net/5e8e5c37daef57f3aaf2c5f741fbb3dbe572ed3696c84b066e63c48665bcda8d.png

2026-03-10 10:31:26 UTC

It looks like Ray Kurzweil was spot on.
We are in the most interesting times.
https://blossom.primal.net/ccc373752f803ca5a58418816325ca9e128e71421f211ef71415a6e4c77cf41f.png

2026-03-08 15:36:29 UTC

AI image edit is fun with @nprofile…u9lu
https://blossom.primal.net/5fb10b7fb04bc19cc3e6d8c4b57b95bda4c494149aa7618a1cf35846890d8bf9.jpg

2026-03-07 12:37:56 UTC

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Financial conclusion. How to protect your portfolio from the worst of it:
1. Avoid US sov. debt like the plague.
2. Bitcoin
3. Gold
4. Land (agricultural)
5. Alternative energy

2026-03-07 12:32:50 UTC

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I've likened Nato to the Delian League before. I think that the similarities are great, both in its motivation, creation and in how it will collapse.
The fact that the USA is dragging NATO into a Persian war just makes the analogy that much more apt.

2026-03-07 12:30:06 UTC

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My thoughts are that Trump will try Syria/Lybia but when he finds out that the Kurds don't want to march on Tehran, he will pivot to Irak 2... and soon find himself in Afghanistan scenario.
China will be delighted to have the US weaken itself economically and militarily in another quagmire and use the diplomatic repercussions to strengthen its position in Africa and its alliance with Pakistan.
Russia will help Iran in the same way that the US has helped Ukraine. Enough to help them last, not enough to let them win. All while profiting from expensive oil prices and better relations with China.
The long term consequences for the US will be similar to Vietnam: economic crisis, bankruptcy and debt reestructuring. Instead of isolating China, they will reinforce its diplomatic position, while at the same time weakening the rationale for its own "defensive" alliance.

2026-03-07 12:16:25 UTC

Simple scenario analysis for the Iran war.
Obviously I will update probabilities as events unfold and options are closed off.
Unfortunately I think that the most optimistic scenarios from this point have a very low probability, based not just on the rhetoric but also on the actions of participants.
https://blossom.primal.net/bf7a4a00757ee3a9d178ccabf34468b76d9b3a20cf831ccd712d43c6bb917632.png

2026-03-06 17:57:27 UTC

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@nprofile…v4t9 @nprofile…m7f7
Check out this report. Very relevant to your biz.
Congratulations on the pitch!

2026-03-06 16:37:09 UTC

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Muy buen vídeo explicativo. Lo difundiré.

2026-03-06 13:53:55 UTC

How long can Iran keep Hormuz strait closed trading $10k drones against $1M interceptors?
My guess is years.
Airpower will not be enough.
There are no good alternatives.

2026-03-06 12:48:31 UTC

En Nostr #hispano hay unos 10 mensajes al día.
Somos pocos, pero cada vez que me meto encuentro algo de valor.
Sospecho que en un futuro, cuando esto se masifique, echaremos de menos estos inicios en los que nos conocemos todos.

2026-03-06 11:24:38 UTC

Nick Szabo gets fed up with X algo manipulation and censorship.
Unfortunately he picks a centralised alternative that has the same flaws.
Thanks to all you guys recommending Nostr to him!
https://x.com/NickSzabo4/status/2029350636899451274

2026-03-06 10:02:55 UTC

Store of Value -> Medium of Exchange -> Unit of Account
https://www.moneyforai.org/
https://blossom.primal.net/8977e37d75674d6e025b9414c9b0ee451aaf42792ae88e9cb1066dceb36132d8.png
https://blossom.primal.net/31067c1ef1d1bb1e0d80e6462694d3483af2439e443fc5e40a80f88c9edcc8b4.png
https://blossom.primal.net/b278022eef5c72c7c5b3c4055d835386040c0447c0fa2facb82b9f61a2d9354f.png

2026-03-06 09:38:21 UTC

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Full study: https://www.moneyforai.org/

2026-03-06 09:35:54 UTC

AI: Bitcoin > fiat
https://cointelegraph.com/news/nearly-half-ai-agents-chose-bitcoin-preferred-money-research

2026-03-05 18:10:32 UTC

What type of bomb makes this?
https://blossom.primal.net/c23c5b6adf05dfcd47aefd0ae54e438e007a743f900e185e006386c074eb885e.png

2026-03-04 11:12:07 UTC

@nprofile…eerj higher

2026-03-04 11:11:31 UTC

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Cuanto más tontos se ponen en X, más se aprecia la libertad de Nostr.

2026-03-04 11:03:58 UTC

@nprofile…eerj Up 📈

2026-03-04 10:52:39 UTC

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No acierto siempre, pero aquí sí. Hablando de la guerra, inflación y activos refugio.
Pienso que merece la pena escuchar el razonamiento y la secuencia lógica.
#Iran #Guerra
#nevent1q…7dca

2026-03-01 07:33:47 UTC

#timeline #history
I found this classic timeline. It's amazing.
https://blossom.primal.net/09dd3e4b78fe0a997cf8572981ef83109d5e32feb810d4473c182ad5a8b85853.jpg

2026-02-27 18:54:35 UTC

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Please point me in their direction!

2026-02-27 18:48:16 UTC

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Open source, nostr powered whatsapp replacement.
Whatsapp group chats remain the most powerful feature in messaging. It's where network effects are strongest.
You can easily get one friend or colleague to install another app to message you - signal, telegram, whitenoise, etc. But it's really difficult to get your group of friends to all move simultaneously from whatsapp group chat.
However privacy abuse by Meta is becoming serious enough that there might be a chance for a mass exodus in the next few years.... IF there is a viable alternative.
#nevent1q…l0ev

2026-02-27 18:38:23 UTC

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Open source phone.
Open source ebook reader.

2026-02-26 11:45:42 UTC

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Corruptissima re publica plurimae leges.
#nevent1q…l0j2

2026-02-26 11:25:02 UTC

@nprofile…me88 #hispano #desregulación
https://juandemariana.org/ijm-y-cefas-presentan-la-motosierra-regulatoria-que-necesita-espana-un-plan-para-derogar-el-sanchismo/
https://blossom.primal.net/57c1e7092faf537b13c3da6ad830c10c5039ec4a914e478c214d40c13547502d.png

2026-02-24 12:37:25 UTC

#history #timeline
This is just a simpler stacked bar chart, with one datapoint per century, which does distort if you zoom in too much...
But I see some value in this format as it allows for easy comparisons.
https://blossom.primal.net/cd48cbfe4d924671c49ab26e42aa8b962f0255b277705fbf9782d9ed52ff04b5.png

2026-02-24 10:00:33 UTC

Hey @nprofile…8qv6 are you going to @nprofile…29wk #MADbitcoin in May?

2026-02-23 20:27:22 UTC

I have just been reminded by a friend that I wrote this in 2022.
Don't make price predictions. I feel quite ashamed of this one.
Just stay humble and stack sats.
https://blossom.primal.net/ec083104f0fbac022b28fd574dda98909418145b5a02f8007522ac0a753903e7.png

2026-02-22 14:57:09 UTC

📚
1. List 1000 essential books
2. Download from project Gutenberg.
3. Load to open source ebook reader.
3. Read offline for 20 years.
No subscriptions, no account, no connection. Just read.
📖

2026-02-19 10:38:14 UTC

Meshtastic-Bitchat Bridge
https://github.com/GigaProjects/meshtastic-bitchat-bridge

2026-02-19 10:27:25 UTC

If Internet and/or electricity goes down in your country:
1. Solar battery + charger
2. Smartphone
3. Bitchat
4. Meshtastic
You can set up an off-grid communications network.
https://blossom.primal.net/dafa2242172d6a71bcc22fc40703824c8f457dadb5b33922f39642640f128b62.png
https://blossom.primal.net/1a488bedcee636b51238b847ddfb89d393aac3a65859e4013e3e48c0d1173c73.png
https://blossom.primal.net/c09534916e86e125a6a3c1c993519fb7a4b37949a50a8b8b1849d4adff89fbaf.png