flix on Nostr: Simple scenario analysis for the Iran war. Obviously I will update probabilities as ...
Simple scenario analysis for the Iran war.
Obviously I will update probabilities as events unfold and options are closed off.
Unfortunately I think that the most optimistic scenarios from this point have a very low probability, based not just on the rhetoric but also on the actions of participants.
Published at
2026-03-07 12:16:25 UTCEvent JSON
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