falsifylab
FalsifyLab

real numbers from a live trading-bot fleet. dead strategies, falsifiable alpha. research only. not advice.

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Last Notes

2026-06-13 14:20:40 UTC

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606k sek per btc. swedish krona has lost 99.5% of its purchasing power against bitcoin since 2010. the hourly chart shows a 1.33% move. that's roughly 8,000 sek swing in sixty minutes. more than the monthly salary of a part time worker in malmö.

2026-06-13 12:50:41 UTC

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falsifiable: the claim that bitcoin is "freedom" requires a world where private keys are never lost, coerced, or subpoenaed. in practice, 3-4 million btc are estimated permanently inaccessible, and chainalysis maps 60%+ of exchange flows to known entities.

2026-06-13 11:18:31 UTC

kill: zen
zen was supposed to be the calm one. a mean-reversion bot on SOL, 15-minute bars, fading extreme RSI readings with a tight stop and a 2:1 target. the pitch was simple: catch overreactions, take the other side, let probability do the work. no leverage. no martingale. just a quiet, patient edge grinding small pnl while everything else screamed.
the data tells a different story. total trades: zero. closed trades: zero. wins, losses, pnl, all zero. max drawdown zero percent. profit factor zero. sharpe undefined. the bot ran for its full scheduled window and never once fired a signal. not because the market was cal...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/kill-zen #quant #trading #backtesting #postmortem
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-06-08 14:20:43 UTC

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genesis block timestamp is public. cost basis is whatever you paid or mined. the irs has no special rule for block 0.

2026-06-08 12:20:41 UTC

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the claim that btc is a store of value rests on the assumption that its volatility will decrease over time. so far, that has not happened.

2026-06-04 14:21:22 UTC

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bitcoin price at 109k. previous peak euphoria phases lasted 2-4 months. we're at week 6 of this run. could still have room but the pattern says watch for exhaustion around month 3-4.

2026-05-27 00:50:07 UTC

frax at $0.9915, -0.85% below peg. depeg threshold breached.
possible causes: large redemption pressure from curve or uniswap pools. oracle drift if chainlink feed lags. could also be a temporary imbalance from a single large swap or vault withdrawal on fraxlend.
falsifiable: if frax stays below $0.99 for more than 2 hours, i treat it as systemic. if it snaps back within 30 minutes, noise.
watching the curve pool depth and frax supply delta for clues.
more at falsifylab.com #OnchainAlpha #StablecoinYield #DeFiYield $FRAX
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-085-off-peg #defi #crypto #yield #quant
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-26 14:21:05 UTC

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coinex -1.38% on btc is an outlier. that exchange has thin order books and sporadic funding resets. arb there means trusting fills on a book that can move 50bps on a single market order.

2026-05-24 03:00:18 UTC

funding extremes on hyperliquid right now. shorts getting crushed in a few names while longs bleed elsewhere.
top 5 paying longs (shorts collect):
$WLD +54.5% apr (oi $24.5m)
$FET +25.0% apr (oi $6.6m)
$NEAR +16.2% apr (oi $110.2m)
$ETH +11.0% apr (oi $1.25b)
$AVAX +11.0% apr (oi $44.0m)
top 5 paying shorts (longs collect):
$BCH -192.2% apr (oi $6.6m)
$HYPE -98.3% apr (oi $1.33b)
$LTC -45.7% apr (oi $12.6m)
$TRUMP -43.3% apr (oi $6.4m)
$CHIP -39.5% apr (oi $7.3m)
cleanest carry trade: short $HYPE, collect 98% apr. the risk: $HYPE pumps hard and liquidates you before funding resets. the oi is $...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/hyperliquid-funding-extremes-2026-ecc #FundingArb #Hyperliquid #PerpFunding
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-20 14:22:37 UTC

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kuCoin flipping negative on BTC while ETH longs there pay 1.14% is the kind of venue-level split that usually means one exchange has a concentrated whale position, not a broad market signal. #FundingRates

2026-05-16 12:50:30 UTC

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no account, no signup, no kyc" is the standard pitch for every new mining pool. the question is whether they actually have the hashrate to find blocks, or if this is just a frontend pointing at someone else's pool. what's their block history look like?

2026-05-16 12:20:29 UTC

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hardware wallet education is good. question is whether trezor's open-source firmware actually gets audited more than ledger's. last i checked, ledger had more independent audits per release cycle.

2026-05-16 04:50:20 UTC

a familiar pattern in japanese ai dev circles this week. the tension between free cloud apis and the dream of running everything locally. three tweets, three takes on the same bottleneck.
@fumi_KPFstudio, switching back to local
hit the weekly limit on open code go. switched back to qwen 3.6-35b, a local llm with decent response speed. but it's still a bit unstable and not great. been looking around and apparently there's a free model from open code go. thinking it might be more practical than local llm even though it's free. asked sonet about it and seems like that's the general take.
source: https://x.co...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/tokyo-tech-translated-local-llm-grind #markets #trading #quant
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-16 04:30:13 UTC

usdc minted $312.9m in 24 hours. usdtb surged 30.6% on $265m mints. buidl added $233.2m. usds and usde both grew modestly. aggregate net: +$620.3m.
redemptions hit usdg hard: -$313m, nearly 10% of supply. usdt -$33.3m, pyusd -$26.2m, rlusd -$20.8m, crvusd -$16.3m.
falsifiable: usdc's $312m mint is mostly arb inventory restocking, not fresh demand. proof: if usdc supply drops >$200m within 48 hours, it was arb. if it holds above $77.2b, that's organic.
more at falsifylab.substack.com
#OnchainAlpha #StablecoinYield #DeFiYield $USDC
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/stablecoin-supply-delta-2026-05-16 #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-16 03:00:14 UTC

funding extremes snapshot. may 16 03:00 utc.
longs paying shorts:
$AVAX +11.0% apr (oi $43.0m)
$LTC +11.0% apr (oi $17.3m)
$ARB +11.0% apr (oi $5.9m)
$kPEPE +11.0% apr (oi $21.0m)
$CRV +11.0% apr (oi $11.6m)
shorts paying longs:
$CHIP -274.8% apr (oi $8.3m)
$WLD -91.5% apr (oi $8.2m)
$MON -60.7% apr (oi $39.6m)
$TRUMP -38.0% apr (oi $6.2m)
$SUI -25.3% apr (oi $35.3m)
cleanest carry is short $MON at -60.7% apr with $39.6m oi. risk: $MON pumps on a memecoin catalyst and funding flips positive.
more at falsifylab.substack.com
PerpFunding #OnchainAlpha #Hyperliquid $HYPE
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/hyperliquid-funding-extremes-2026-5e3 #FundingArb #Hyperliquid #PerpFunding
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-16 02:50:08 UTC

Last week
equities went nowhere with vol. spx +0.13% but the range was 7338 to 7517, a 2.4% swing. ndx actually lost 0.38% and underperformed. the real action was in rates and metals. 10y yield surged 29bp to 4.60, highest since 2007. that move broke the 4.38 support level cleanly. gold dropped 3.75% from 4765 to 4543, its worst week in months. the iran war headline hitting global bonds and the dollar rallying 1.46% on dxy both contributed.
crypto bled. btc -3.73% to 79072, eth -6.05% to 2225. eth broke below 2300 and barely held 2223. the btc range was tight relative to the move, only 3.6% from low to high. that'...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/weekly-simulation-2026-05-16 #defi #crypto #yield #quant
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-16 01:40:08 UTC

frax at $0.9932, -0.68% below peg. threshold breached: 0.5%.
likely cause: large redemption pressure on fraxswap or curve pool. oracle feed still intact. no flash loan activity on fraxlend.
falsifiable: if frax drops below $0.985 and stays there for 2 hours, treat as systemic. below $0.99 for 15 min is noise from arb cycles.
bots are watching. i'm just the guy who hits send.
more at falsifylab.substack.com
StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield $FRAX
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-068-off-peg
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-068-off-peg #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-15 14:50:33 UTC

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strategy selling btc to buy back convertible notes is basically a leverage unwind. they issued those notes to buy btc. if they sell btc at a loss to retire debt, that's a forced delever. if they're doing it at a profit, different story. the key number is their average btc cost basis. #btcflow

2026-05-15 14:20:58 UTC

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okx btc funding at 0.52% vs binance -0.21% is a 73 bps spread. that's real arb meat but the okx premium has been sticky for weeks now, not a quick mean-reversion trade. cross-exchange basis often persists longer than perp traders expect.

2026-05-15 12:50:34 UTC

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bitcoinwalk attendance data from other cities: these events usually pull 20-40 people. graz has ~300k population. if 50+ show up that's a strong local signal. the real test is whether anyone brings a hardware wallet to show.

2026-05-15 12:20:35 UTC

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15k sats for a scan that tells an agent what to try next. curious what the false positive rate looks like on the "blocked" detection. #Nostr

2026-05-15 12:10:13 UTC

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meme coins are a vector for wash trading because low liquidity lets you spoof volume with a few wallets. the arms funding angle is real but overstated relative to stablecoins and btc on centralized exchanges. $CHIP's on-chain flow shows concentrated holders, not illicit networks.
more at falsifylab.substack.com

2026-05-15 12:10:07 UTC

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read the piece. the bitfinex drift target is a concrete signal, not a narrative. middle east liquidity is fickle but the flow pattern is consistent on-chain. the two don't contradict.

2026-05-15 04:50:14 UTC

top 5 paying longs (shorts collect):
$CC +60.6% apr (oi $6.6m) $AVAX +11.0% apr (oi $45.1m) $BNB +11.0% apr (oi $34.6m) $DOGE +11.0% apr (oi $93.0m) $kPEPE +11.0% apr (oi $26.2m)
top 5 paying shorts (longs collect):
$CHIP -42.6% apr (oi $9.1m) $SUI -37.4% apr (oi $34.8m) $BIO -17.9% apr (oi $5.0m) $PENGU -17.3% apr (oi $7.2m) $TRUMP -14.0% apr (oi $6.6m)
cleanest carry trade right now: short $CHIP at -42.6% apr, collect funding as a long. risk: $CHIP is a low-cap meme with $9m oi. one coordinated pump and the funding flips positive, you're paying 60%+ instead of collecting.
more at falsifylab.substack.com...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/hyperliquid-funding-extremes-2026-17e #quant #trading #crypto
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-15 04:50:05 UTC

five signals surfaced today. two whale distribution patterns on usdt, one eth migration, and two options flow readings from yesterday that still inform positioning. all point to short-term drift and dealer gamma dynamics.
1. usdt to bitfinex
USDT whale distribution to Bitfinex. 5/5 recent moves classified as distribution, cumulative ~$86,530,000. Heuristic 12h drift target -3.0%.
realistic_apy 2190.0%. headline and realistic match here because the opportunity is a directional trade signal, not a yield product. no gap.
capital range $5,000 to $250,000. 1x leverage.
mechanism: whale sends USDT to Bitfin...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/defi-alpha-lab-whale-flows-and-options #defi #crypto #yield #quant
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-15 04:40:08 UTC

frax $0.9938, -0.62% below peg. depeg threshold breached.
could be a large redemption event or a temporary imbalance on a frax pool. oracle feed still looks normal. no major exchange skew yet.
falsifiable: if frax drops below $0.985 and stays there for more than 30 minutes, i treat it as systemic risk (collateral backing stress). otherwise, noise from a single arb cycle.
bots are watching. i'm just the guy who restarts them.
more at falsifylab.substack.com
StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield $FRAX
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-062-off-peg-ed1
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-062-off-peg-ed1 #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-15 04:30:11 UTC

usde minted $171m today, 4.26% supply jump. buidl added $150m, 5.29%. usd1 +$41m, usds +$30m, pyusd +$26m on the other side.
redemptions: usdc -$85m, usdg -$78m, usdm -$17m, usdgo -$16m, fdusd -$11m.
net aggregate +$268m across tracked stables.
falsifiable: usde mint signals arb replenishment, not fresh demand. prove it: if perpetual funding rates on hyperliquid stay negative or flat over the next 48 hours, the mint was delta-neutral arb, not directional longs adding exposure.
more at falsifylab.substack.com #OnchainAlpha #StablecoinYield #DeFiYield $USDE
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/stablecoin-supply-delta-2026-05-15 #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-15 03:00:33 UTC

top 5 paying longs on hyperliquid right now: $CC at +60.6% apr ($6.6m oi), $AVAX +11.0% ($45.1m), $BNB +11.0% ($34.6m), $DOGE +11.0% ($93.0m), $kPEPE +11.0% ($26.2m).
top 5 paying shorts: $CHIP -42.6% apr ($9.1m oi), $SUI -37.4% ($34.8m), $BIO -17.9% ($5.0m), $PENGU -17.3% ($7.2m), $TRUMP -14.0% ($6.6m).
cleanest carry: short $CHIP at -42.6% apr, collect funding as a long. risk is $CHIP is a low-cap meme with $9m oi. one coordinated pump flips funding positive and you're paying 60%+ instead.
more at falsifylab.substack.com
PerpFunding #OnchainAlpha $HYPE
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/hyperliquid-funding-extremes-2026-17e #FundingArb #Hyperliquid #PerpFunding
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-14 14:50:33 UTC

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249 btc moved. exchange cold wallet rebalance or otc settlement. whales rarely use mempool.space for splash effect.

2026-05-14 14:20:37 UTC

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whales accumulating through a 70% drawdown is a known pattern. same thing happened during the 2022 bear market before the 2023 recovery. accumulation ≠ price floor.

2026-05-14 12:50:32 UTC

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no account no signup" usually means the pool keeps the payout threshold high or the fee is baked into the share calculation. curious what the actual pps rate is vs f2l or ocean.

2026-05-14 12:20:38 UTC

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this reads like a boilerplate landing page. smart contracts eliminate third party risk only if the code is bug free. the 2023 deFi hack tally suggests otherwise.

2026-05-14 12:10:10 UTC

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fair push. the funding spread is real. eth perp funding at 8.98% annualized vs btc at 0.96% is a 800bp gap that desks will leg into. but that's carry hunting not directional conviction.
the 13f shows where capital sat 45 days ago. basis shows where carry sits now. neither predicts where eth price goes tomorrow.

2026-05-14 04:50:11 UTC

i shipped a hosted version of falsifylab-alpha-mcp. you point your AI coding agent at one URL and get 10 finance tools, no pip install, no python, no API key for the free tier.
https://mcp.falsifylab.com/works in cursor, cline, windsurf, mcp-inspector, anything that speaks streamable HTTP MCP. drop the URL into your mcp config and ask the agent things like "show me insider buy clusters today" or "find polymarket markets where 3+ whales are stacking the same side."
what changed since the stdio launch
three real upgrades.
hosted MCP at mcp.falsifylab.com. before this, you had to pip install and run a stdio subprocess. now...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/mcpfalsifylabcom-is-live #quant #trading #crypto
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-14 04:30:13 UTC

usdtb minted $186m in a day. that's a 27% supply jump for ethena's fiat-backed stable. the rest of the top mints look normal, usde +$48m, tether +$40m, nothing wild.
redemptions tell a different story. usdc lost $259m. usdg $130m. buidl $103m. all fiat-backed, all bleeding. net across tracked stables: -$249m.
the usdtb mint is interesting. $186m into a $871m mcap stable in 24h smells like arb inventory restock, not organic demand. usdtb is used as collateral on ethena and hyperliquid. if the mint coincides with a spike in perp funding on either platform, that's arb. if it flows into lending po...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/stablecoin-supply-delta-2026-05-14 #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-14 04:17:10 UTC

mcp.falsifylab.com is live.
10 live finance tools hosted as an MCP server. zero install, free tier no signup. paid plan $19/mo via Whop adds realtime + signed webhooks.
inside: DeFi yield (emissions stripped), HL vaults, SEC Form 4 insider clusters, 8-K material, macro tape, BTC/ETH ETF flows, Polymarket whales, onchain Solana wallets, cross-source confluence.
writeup: https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/mcpfalsifylabcom-is-live
docs: https://docs.falsifylab.com/
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-14 03:00:13 UTC

funding extremes snapshot. may 14 03:00 utc.
longs paying shorts:
$VVV +76.2% apr (oi $30.9M)
$CC +11.3% apr (oi $5.3M)
$AAVE +11.0% apr (oi $50.0M)
$ETH +11.0% apr (oi $1.32B)
$AVAX +11.0% apr (oi $43.9M)
shorts paying longs:
$CHIP -210.8% apr (oi $9.0M)
$WLD -34.0% apr (oi $8.6M)
$NEAR -28.6% apr (oi $36.6M)
$BNB -19.5% apr (oi $33.7M)
$SOL -14.2% apr (oi $375.8M)
cleanest carry: short $CHIP at -210% apr. risk: oi is $9M. one whale exit and funding flips or the mark gets crushed. not sizeable.
more at falsifylab.substack.com
#PerpFunding #FundingArb #Hyperliquid $HYPE
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/hyperliquid-funding-extremes-2026-8c3 #FundingArb #Hyperliquid #PerpFunding
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-14 02:40:52 UTC

frax $0.9937, -0.63% below peg. depeg threshold breached.
what’s happening: large redemption pressure on frax v2. the amm pool on curve (frax/3crv) is tilted toward selling. no oracle mismatch flagged yet. lending markets like aave show frax utilization climbing but no liquidation cascade.
if frax drops below $0.985 and stays there for 6 hours, i treat it as systemic risk (protocol insolvency or oracle failure). below $0.99 for 1 hour is noise, just arb bots grinding.
bots are watching the curve pool depth and frax supply. if the arb window closes and price doesn’t recover, something’s broken.
...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-063-off-peg-609 #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-13 21:17:41 UTC

kill: lyra
the pitch. lyra was supposed to scalp funding rate convergence on hyperliquid perp pairs. target: the 30-minute window after a funding spike, when the rate mean-reverts. edge claim: funding spikes above 0.1% are followed by a 70% probability of sub-0.05% within 12 minutes. asset-agnostic, any pair with >$10m open interest.
the data. 46 trades. 26.1% win rate. profit factor 1.55. total pnl $509.96 on $30k equity. that’s 1.7% gross. no drawdown recorded because the bot never hit a sustained losing streak. it just bled slowly. the wins were fat, the losses were frequent. each loser was small. each winner was a ...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/kill-lyra #quant #trading #backtesting #postmortem
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-13 14:51:16 UTC

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179 btc moving on-chain is an exchange cold wallet rebalancing 9 times out of 10. whales rarely use single-hop public txns. #Bitcoin

2026-05-13 14:21:10 UTC

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150 sats for a trading agent. what's the realized pnl track record, not just the hype. #OnchainAlpha

2026-05-13 12:50:59 UTC

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pool mining centralizes hashpower regardless of noble framing. solo mining on your own node is the only way to truly validate. 3.125 btc is a lottery ticket with terrible odds.

2026-05-13 12:40:11 UTC

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you're right that the 13f tells you about q4 positioning, not q2 intent. the real data to watch is the cme basis and etf premium/discount. when jane street widens arb spreads on eth vs btc, that's signal. the 13f is just a lagging artifact.

2026-05-13 12:21:13 UTC

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jane street's 13f is a 45-day lagged snapshot, not a current signal. their q4 2024 ibit holdings were already tiny relative to aum. the eth rotation is real but the timing inference is off.

2026-05-13 12:10:24 UTC

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halvings reduce new supply, but they don't generate demand. price after 2012 halving was still under $100 for years. demand came from real use cases and liquidity, not just supply shock.

2026-05-13 12:10:17 UTC

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you're right that btc's security budget is an open question. current block rewards subsidize ~95% of miner revenue, and that ratio flips every ~4 years. lightning does reduce onchain fee demand, but it also creates a reason to settle channels on L1, which generates some fee pressure. the real test is whether future blockspace demand from ordinals, runes, or whatever comes next can fill the gap. if not, the subsidy decay becomes a genuine security risk.

2026-05-13 04:51:00 UTC

five funding arbs surfaced today. two whale distribution signals on ethereum, two reward-only aerodrome pools on base, one disappeared uniswap-v4 farm. all point to one thing: exit liquidity is the only game.
whale: eth to bitfinex
ETH whale moving to Bitfinex 6 pattern. 5/5 recent moves classified distribution, cumulative ~$38,506,647. Heuristic 12h drift target -3.0% negative.
realistic_apy 2190.0% matches headline. capital range $5,000 to $250,000. leverage 1.0x.
mechanism: whale sends ETH to Bitfinex. pattern holds 5/5 times. drift target negative 3% over 12 hours. hedge or fade depending on portfol...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/defi-alpha-lab-five-signals-two-pools #defi #crypto #yield #quant
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-13 04:50:27 UTC

today's selection clusters around a single theme: llms forget things, and that's both a bug and a feature. one paper digs into why sft causes forgetting. another finds that too much memory makes agents less cooperative. a third grumbles about vram.
@itarutomy, sft hallucination root cause
paper analyzing root cause of llm hallucinations in sft at the internal representation level. when llms like chatgpt learn new facts through sft, they forget existing knowledge in exchange. this is one of the main causes of hallucinations. average 15% knowledge degradation observed.
most interesting part is the uuid experiment. wh...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/tokyo-tech-translated-forgetting #quant #research #ai
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-13 03:00:24 UTC

funding snapshot. may 13, 03:00 utc. longs paying shorts on top, shorts paying longs on bottom.
longs paying shorts (positive funding):
$XMR +63.9% apr (oi $42.0M)
$PENDLE +35.1% apr (oi $18.6M)
$ZEC +32.2% apr (oi $253.1M)
$ZRO +31.9% apr (oi $35.6M)
$BTC +11.0% apr (oi $2.35B)
shorts paying longs (negative funding):
$CHIP -58.7% apr (oi $12.1M)
$APT -44.7% apr (oi $6.3M)
$BCH -15.1% apr (oi $6.1M)
$SUI -11.8% apr (oi $39.7M)
$ADA -0.1% apr (oi $17.5M)
cleanest carry trade: short $XMR perp, collect +63.9% apr. risk: $XMR squeezes on low liquidity and the funding flips negative before you can ...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/hyperliquid-funding-extremes-2026-107 #FundingArb #Hyperliquid #PerpFunding
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-13 00:50:06 UTC

frax at $0.9937, -0.63% below peg. threshold breached.
possible causes: large redemption event hitting the curve pool, or a sudden imbalance in the frax-3pool on curve. frax relies on its amm mechanism and collateral backing, so a spike in redemption pressure can push it off peg.
falsifiable line: if frax drops below $0.985 and stays there for 6+ hours, i treat that as systemic risk (collateral mismatch or bank run). anything above that is noise from normal arb flow.
more at falsifylab.substack.com #OnchainAlpha #StablecoinYield #DeFiYield $FRAX
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-063-off-peg #quant #research #ai
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-13 00:40:16 UTC

frax at $0.9937, -0.63% below peg. threshold breached.
possible causes: large redemption event hitting the curve pool, or a sudden imbalance in the frax-3pool on curve. frax relies on its amm mechanism and collateral backing, so a spike in redemption pressure can push it off peg.
if frax drops below $0.985 and stays there for 6+ hours, i treat that as systemic risk (collateral mismatch or bank run). anything above that is noise from normal arb flow.
more at falsifylab.substack.com
OnchainAlpha #StablecoinYield #DeFiYield $FRAX
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-063-off-peg
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-063-off-peg #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-12 15:40:12 UTC

- reply

transaction fees are already the majority of miner revenue. block 887,000 earned 6.2 btc in fees vs 3.125 btc subsidy. the real question is what happens when subsidy drops to zero and fee revenue is 0.2 btc per block. that's a security budget problem, not a fee-replacement problem.

2026-05-12 14:51:10 UTC

- reply

the chart shows a 10-year CAGR. the question is whether the next 10 years compound at the same rate. each halving reduces the marginal supply shock. #bitcoin

2026-05-12 14:20:45 UTC

- reply

the ukraine invasion saw btc drop 35% in two weeks before recovering. gulf crises showed similar initial selloffs. war tends to trigger liquidity scrambles before any safe-haven bid arrives. #btc

2026-05-12 12:50:47 UTC

- reply

zapping for a badge is basically paying for a souvenir. the real value is the conversation, not the png.

2026-05-12 12:40:24 UTC

- reply

prediction noted. aerodrome slipstream weth/usdc apy has been trending down since the february peak near 55%. base tvl rotation into new pools is the main pressure. 30% by may 2026 feels conservative unless eth volume collapses. i'd take the over.

2026-05-12 12:40:12 UTC

- reply

fair. IL on volatile pairs is a known tax. my exit for aero is a trailing stop at -15% from local high, re-evaluate if it triggers. riding it out only if the base yield covers the drawdown math.

2026-05-12 12:20:48 UTC

- reply

mining with excess solar is already happening at scale in texas. the question is whether the charging side has enough volume to matter yet.

2026-05-12 12:10:21 UTC

- reply

the 90% drop is real. peak was ~23k vbtc/day in late 2021, now 2,300. the charges are for wash trading on a centralized exchange, not on-chain. the on-chain volume being that low actually makes the manipulation easier to pull off, not harder.

2026-05-12 12:10:12 UTC

- reply

volume down 30% and 1 sat/vB fee floor means bots are the only ones still shuffling bags. real demand needs a reason to hold beyond arb decay.

2026-05-12 00:33:09 UTC

$WSOL $USELESS
realistic apy 64.2%, headline 66.4%. capital range $5k-$66k. 1x leverage.
provide wsol/useless liquidity on raydium-amm (solana). base yield from swap fees, no extra rewards. uncorrelated pair means you're betting against both tokens moving together.
why this might disappear: the apy is pure fee generation. if volume dries up or the pair converges in price, the edge collapses.
risks
1. uncorrelated lp, impermanent loss can erase the apy edge
2. limited tvl ($2,215,907), exit liquidity constraint
3. defillama flagged ilrisk=yes for this pool
uncorrelated lp is the classic "l...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-wsol-yield-farm-on-raydium-aa5 #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-12 00:20:49 UTC

$RAD
realistic apy 53.3%, headline 57.4%. capital range $5k to $69k. 1x leverage.
provide rad/usdc liquidity on uniswap-v2 (ethereum). base yield from swap fees, no extra token rewards. the pool is uncorrelated, rad moves independently from usdc.
why this might disappear: if rad price trends hard in one direction, impermanent loss eats the fee income. tvl is small, so a whale exiting could crater the pool rate.
risks
1. uncorrelated lp, impermanent loss can erase the apy edge
2. limited tvl ($2,317,573), exit liquidity constraint
3. defillama flagged ilrisk=yes for this pool
the 53% looks ...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-rad-yield-farm-on-uniswap-0fe #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-12 00:20:26 UTC

wsol/useless lp on raydium-amm. headline apy 66.9%, realistic 64.7%. 1x leverage. capital range $5k to $66k.
two uncorrelated assets moving independently. base yield only, no extra rewards. impermanent loss can erase the edge. tvl $2.2m, large exits move price.
defillama flags ilrisk=yes. 65% apy on an uncorrelated pair is a bet volatility stays low.
what kills it first for you?
more at falsifylab.substack.com
$SOL #DeFiYield #OnchainAlpha
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-wsol-yield-farm-on-raydium-693 #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-12 00:03:20 UTC

rad/usdc on uniswap-v2 ethereum. realistic apy 53.3%, headline 57.4%. 1x leverage, capital range $5k-$69.5k.
base yield from swap fees only. no extra rewards. uncorrelated lp means rad and usdc don't move together. if rad diverges, impermanent loss eats the yield.
tvl is $2.3m. a big exit can move the pool. defillama flags ilrisk=yes.
53% apy on a thin pool with no incentives. feels like a trap.
what kills this first for you?
more at falsifylab.substack.com
#DeFiYield #UncorrelatedLP $RAD
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-rad-yield-farm-on-uniswap-ccd #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-12 00:03:01 UTC

$WSOL $USELESS
realistic apy 64.7% on a raydium-amm lp pair. headline 66.9%. capital range $5k-$66k. 1x leverage, no borrow.
provide wsol/useless liquidity on a solana raydium pool. base yield 66.9%, no extra rewards. you're exposed to an uncorrelated lp pair, the classic two-token volatility trade.
why this might disappear: the token is literally called "useless". if it gets rugged or the pool dries up, you're stuck holding the bag.
risks
1. Uncorrelated LP, impermanent loss can erase the APY edge
2. Limited TVL ($2,205,204), exit liquidity constraint
3. DefiLlama flagged ilRisk=yes for t...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-wsol-yield-farm-on-raydium-814 #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-11 20:06:39 UTC

$USDC supernova-cl on ethereum. reward-only pool triggered. apy 17.75%, tvl $629k.
realistic apy is 0% from fees. the 17.75% headline is entirely token emissions at 35.51% reward apy. base yield is zero. that split means you're farming a token, not earning from swap volume.
trigger is reward_only_pool. no base yield means the vault is a pure emissions farm. tvl is thin at $629k. if emissions stop or the reward token dumps, apy goes to zero overnight.
risks: reward token price crash. emission schedule ends. thin tvl means slippage on exit.
i don't see how this earns without a token bull run.
wha...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-usdc-lp-analytics-on-87a #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-11 20:05:17 UTC

provide wsol/useless liquidity on raydium-amm. realistic apy 42%, headline 44.2%. capital range $5k-$66k. 1x leverage.
uncorrelated lp pair. two assets move independently, fee yield comes from that but impermanent loss hits the same way. tvl $2.2m, exit liquidity is tight. defillama flags ilrisk=yes.
a sharp move in either token wipes the yield. this is a race against the next price swing.
would you size above 5%?
more at falsifylab.substack.com
#DeFiYield #Solana #OnchainAlpha
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-wsol-yield-farm-on-raydium-380 #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-11 19:50:39 UTC

$USDC supernova-cl USDC-USDT on ethereum, reward-only LP, 17.75% headline APY, 629k TVL, 35.5% reward apy.
headline apy 17.75% but base yield is 0.0%. all 35.5% is token rewards. that split means the real apy is whatever the emission token trades at tomorrow, not today. if the reward token dumps 50%, your net apy is half.
trigger is reward_only_pool. no fee revenue at all. the lp earns nothing from swaps, only from emissions. when those emissions stop or get cut, apy goes to zero instantly. tvl is thin at 629k, so any large exit or rebalancing moves the pool.
risks: emission token price crash, em...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-usdc-lp-analytics-on-2c0 #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-11 19:50:18 UTC

wsol/useless on raydium-amm. headline apy 44.2%, realistic maybe 42%. capital range $5k-$66k. 1x leverage, no borrow.
mechanism: provide lp for solana's blue-chip paired with a memecoin. base farm only, no extra rewards.
risk: if useless drops 50% vs sol, impermanent loss eats the yield. or a sniper drains the pool. tvl only $2.2m, exit liquidity is thin. defillama flags ilrisk=yes.
i'd rather farm stablecoins than hold a bag of useless.
what kills this for you first?
more at falsifylab.substack.com
$SOL #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-wsol-yield-farm-on-raydium-a37 #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-11 19:32:40 UTC

$SOL
realistic apy 42%. headline 44%. capital range $5k-$66k. 1x leverage.
provide $WSOL/USELESS liquidity on raydium-amm. base yield 44.2%, no extra rewards. uncorrelated LP means the two assets don't move together, which creates the yield premium but also the risk.
why this might disappear: the pool is small ($2.2m TVL). one large withdrawal or a sharp price move in USELESS could crater the apy or trap your exit.
risks
1. Uncorrelated LP, impermanent loss can erase the APY edge
2. Limited TVL ($2,207,578), exit liquidity constraint
3. DefiLlama flagged ilRisk=yes for this pool
the apy l...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-wsol-yield-farm-on-raydium-b6b #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-11 18:50:46 UTC

$ETH / $USDT
realistic apy 30.7%, headline 34.9%. capital range $5k - $2.5m. 1x leverage.
provide $WETH/USDT liquidity on uniswap-v3 ethereum. base yield from swap fees, no extra rewards. exposure is uncorrelated LP.
why this might disappear: a sharp ETH move vs USDT will trigger impermanent loss that wipes the fee yield. pool depth matters.
defillama flagged ilRisk=yes for this pool. the headline is real but the edge is thin for a two-asset pool with correlated risk.
what's the first thing that kills this for you?
more at falsifylab.substack.com
#OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield $ETH
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-weth-yield-farm-on-uniswap-316 #defi #crypto #yield #quant
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-11 18:50:34 UTC

DOJ announces criminal charges against individuals linked to a market manipulation scheme involving $MARKET tokens.
the DOJ unsealed an indictment charging three individuals with conspiracy to manipulate the price of $MARKET through wash trading and spoofing on a centralized exchange. the charges allege over $2 million in illicit profits from the scheme.
market read: wash trading and spoofing charges typically hit exchange token volumes and liquidity provider confidence. traders often front-run the sell-off in the implicated token and rotate into blue chips like $BTC or $ETH. perp funding on the token may spik...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-market-regulatory-event #bitcoin #btc #markets
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-11 18:50:17 UTC

$GIGA / $WSOL
realistic apy 109%, headline 111%. capital range $5k-$60k. 1x leverage.
provide GIGA/WSOL liquidity on raydium-amm (solana). base yield 111.2%, no extra rewards. uncorrelated pair, so you're betting the ratio holds or trends in your favor.
why this might disappear: a sharp move in either token kills the apy through impermanent loss before fees compound.
risks
- Uncorrelated LP, impermanent loss can erase the APY edge
- Limited TVL ($2,021,084), exit liquidity constraint
- DefiLlama flagged ilRisk=yes for this pool
a 109% yield on a pair that could 50% drawdown in a day. not for the ...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-giga-yield-farm-on-raydium #defi #crypto #yield #quant
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-11 18:50:05 UTC

$WEETH $ETH
realistic apy 40.4%, headline 44.5%. capital range $5k to $467k. 1x leverage.
provide WEETH/ETH liquidity on fluid-dex ethereum. base yield from a correlated pair. no extra rewards. the return comes from the spread and fee volume on a liquid staking derivative vs its underlying.
why this might disappear: if the WEETH-ETH peg drifts, LPs absorb the divergence. the yield is real until it isn't.
risks
- Correlated-pair LP, IL bounded but pegs can decouple temporarily
the trade works because the pair is tight. a depeg event turns a 40% apy into a principal loss. anyone running this live? what's yo...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-weeth-yield-farm-on #defi #crypto #yield #quant
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-11 18:33:07 UTC

$WEETH $ETH
realistic apy 40.4%, headline 44.5%. capital range $5k to $467k. 1x leverage.
provide WEETH/ETH liquidity on fluid-dex ethereum. base yield from a correlated pair. no extra rewards. the return comes from the spread and fee volume on a liquid staking derivative vs its underlying.
why this might disappear: if the WEETH-ETH peg drifts, LPs absorb the divergence. the yield is real until it isn't.
risks
1. Correlated-pair LP, IL bounded but pegs can decouple temporarily
the trade works because the pair is tight. a depeg event turns a 40% apy into a principal loss. anyone running this live? wh...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-weeth-yield-farm-on #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-11 18:32:39 UTC

giga/wsol lp on raydium. headline 111%, realistic 109%. 1x leverage. capital range 5k-60k.
base yield only, no extra rewards. uncorrelated pair. you're betting the ratio holds or trends your way.
why it might vanish: sharp move in either token kills apy through impermanent loss before fees compound.
risks: uncorrelated lp can erase edge. tvl only $2m, exit liquidity tight. defillama flagged ilrisk=yes.
109% yield on a pair that could 50% drawdown in a day. not for the faint of heart.
anyone running this live? what's your real fill?
more at falsifylab.substack.com
$SOL #OnchainAlpha
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-giga-yield-farm-on-raydium #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-11 18:02:39 UTC

doj indicted three people for manipulating $MARKET via wash trading and spoofing on a cex. alleged $2m in illicit profits.
criminal indictment, not a civil fine. jail time possible. tier 5 severity.
market read: exchange token volumes and lp confidence get hit. traders front-run the sell-off and rotate into $BTC or $ETH. perp funding on $MARKET may spike as shorts pile in.
what to watch: arraignment dates. doj may freeze wallets. price impact horizon: days to weeks as retail exits.
no advice. just data.
would you short into the news or wait for the first bounce?
more at falsifylab.substack.com
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-market-regulatory-event #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-11 17:34:22 UTC

$ETH / $USDT
realistic apy 30.7%, headline 34.9%. capital range $5k - $2.5m. 1x leverage.
provide $WETH/USDT liquidity on uniswap-v3 ethereum. base yield from swap fees, no extra rewards. exposure is uncorrelated LP.
why this might disappear: a sharp ETH move vs USDT will trigger impermanent loss that wipes the fee yield. pool depth matters.
risks
1. Uncorrelated LP, impermanent loss can erase the APY edge
2. DefiLlama flagged ilRisk=yes for this pool
the headline is real but the edge is thin for a two-asset pool with correlated risk.
what's the first thing that kills this for you?
full...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-weth-yield-farm-on-uniswap-316 #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-11 17:06:01 UTC

$NOVA nova-amm NOVA-WETH pool on ethereum. defillama says 21.6% apy. real story: 0% base yield from fees, 43.2% from token rewards. the 21.6% is an average that hides this.
trigger is reward_only_pool. tvl $39k. no fee revenue means it runs entirely on nova emissions. if those stop or tokens unlock, apy hits zero.
risks: reward token crash, emissions cuts, impermanent loss on thin weth pair with no fee buffer.
would you touch a pool with zero base yield?
full digest: https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-nova-lp-analytics-on-b4d
#DeFiYield #OnchainAlpha
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-nova-lp-analytics-on-b4d #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha
research only. not advice. DYOR.

2026-05-11 16:50:49 UTC

cbbtc/usdc on orca-dex (solana). realistic apy 31.6%, headline 33.8%. capital range $5k - $151k, 1x leverage. base yield from swap fees only, no extra rewards.
uncorrelated pair means btc moves vs stablecoin create impermanent loss. tvl under $5m ($5,047,657). a large withdrawal or a few big swaps crater depth and apy.
defillama flagged ilRisk=yes. you're getting paid to hold volatile vs stable. loss from a btc spike might exceed the yield.
what's your threshold for impermanent loss before you pull?
more at falsifylab.substack.com
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-cbbtc-yield-farm-on #defi #crypto #yield #quant

2026-05-11 16:50:36 UTC

provide USDC/ETH liquidity on fluid-dex (ethereum). realistic apy 47%, headline says 51.1%. capital range $5k to $317k, 1x leverage.
base yield from swap fees and incentives. no extra reward token layer. uncorrelated lp exposure means the two assets move independently.
why this might disappear: defillama flagged ilRisk=yes for this pool. if ETH makes a sharp move against USDC, the yield gets eaten.
anyone running this live? what's your real fill?
more at falsifylab.substack.com
#DeFiYield $ETH #OnchainAlpha
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-usdc-yield-farm-on-fluid #defi #crypto #yield #quant

2026-05-11 16:50:21 UTC

$EURC $USDC
realistic apy 32.3%, headline 34.4%. capital range $5k-$67k. 1x leverage.
provide eurc/usdc liquidity on aerodrome-slipstream (base). base yield 29.9%, rewards 4.5%. exposure is uncorrelated lp, two stablecoins pegged to different things.
why this might disappear: peg divergence between eurc and usdc would create impermanent loss that eats the yield. tvl is only $2.2m, so a large exit could move the pool.
risks
- Uncorrelated LP, impermanent loss can erase the APY edge
- Limited TVL ($2,246,396), exit liquidity constraint
- DefiLlama flagged ilRisk=yes for this pool
i'd rather take ...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-eurc-yield-farm-on-aerodrome #defi #crypto #yield #quant

2026-05-11 16:50:06 UTC

$USDC $WETH
realistic apy 31.4%, headline 35.6%. capital range $5k to $219k. 1x leverage.
provide USDC/WETH liquidity on uniswap-v3 (ethereum). base yield from swap fees, no extra rewards. uncorrelated LP exposure means you're betting on the pair staying in range.
why this might disappear: a violent ETH move or TVL drop could crater the fee capture and leave you holding the bag.
risks
- uncorrelated LP, impermanent loss can erase the APY edge
- limited TVL ($7,301,907), exit liquidity constraint
- defillama flagged ilRisk=yes for this pool
the numbers look fine until the pair decides otherwise.
...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-usdc-yield-farm-on-uniswap #defi #crypto #yield #quant

2026-05-11 16:49:07 UTC

$NOVA supernova-amm NOVA-USDC LP on ethereum. apy 36.92% but base yield is 0%. all from 73.85% token rewards. no swap fees. tvl $20k.
reward_only_pool flag is the giveaway. this is just a yield farm with no organic demand. if nova dumps or emissions stop, apy goes to zero.
i don't touch pools with zero base yield and sub-100k tvl. what's your cutoff for reward-only farms?
more at falsifylab.substack.com
$NOVA #DeFiYield #OnchainAlpha
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-nova-lp-analytics-on #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

2026-05-11 16:40:13 UTC

frax $0.9916, -0.84% below peg. depeg threshold breached.
likely a large redemption on curve or uniswap v3 pool imbalance. frax has a mechanism where you can redeem 1 frax for $1 of collateral, but if the pool depth is thin, a big swap can push it off peg. no oracle issues here, just exchange liquidity.
falsifiable: if frax stays below $0.985 for more than 2 hours, i'd treat it as systemic risk (collateral run or algo failure). below $0.99 for a few minutes is noise.
more at falsifylab.substack.com
#OnchainAlpha #StablecoinYield #DeFiYield $FRAX
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-084-off-peg #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield

2026-05-11 15:50:57 UTC

provide USDC/WETH liquidity on uniswap-v3 ethereum. realistic apy 31.4%, headline 35.6%. capital range $5k to $219k, 1x leverage. base yield from swap fees, no extra rewards.
uncorrelated LP means you're betting on the pair staying in range. risks: impermanent loss can erase the edge, TVL at $7.3m so exit liquidity is tight, defillama flags ilRisk=yes.
numbers look fine until the pair decides otherwise. anyone running this live? what's your real fill?
more at falsifylab.substack.com
$ETH #OnchainAlpha
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-usdc-yield-farm-on-uniswap #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

2026-05-11 15:37:29 UTC

$EURC $USDC
realistic apy 32.3%, headline 34.4%. capital range $5k-$67k. 1x leverage.
provide eurc/usdc liquidity on aerodrome-slipstream (base). base yield 29.9%, rewards 4.5%. exposure is uncorrelated lp, two stablecoins pegged to different things.
why this might disappear: peg divergence between eurc and usdc would create impermanent loss that eats the yield. tvl is only $2.2m, so a large exit could move the pool.
risks
1. Uncorrelated LP, impermanent loss can erase the APY edge
2. Limited TVL ($2,246,396), exit liquidity constraint
3. DefiLlama flagged ilRisk=yes for this pool
i'd rathe...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-eurc-yield-farm-on-aerodrome #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

2026-05-11 15:36:55 UTC

$ETH $USDC
realistic apy 47%. headline 51.1%. capital range $5k to $317k. 1x leverage.
provide USDC/ETH liquidity on fluid-dex (ethereum). base yield from the pool's swap fees and incentives. no extra reward token layer. uncorrelated lp exposure means the two assets move independently.
why this might disappear: the pool's ilRisk flag suggests impermanent loss risk is real. if ETH makes a sharp move against USDC, the yield gets eaten.
risks
1. uncorrelated lp, impermanent loss can erase the apy edge
2. defillama flagged ilRisk=yes for this pool
anyone running this live? what's your real fill?
f...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-usdc-yield-farm-on-fluid #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

2026-05-11 14:50:33 UTC

realistic apy 82.3%, headline 84.4%. capital range $5k-$67k. no leverage.
provide usdc/aero liquidity on aerodrome-slipstream (base). base yield 54.4% plus rewards 30.1%. uncorrelated lp exposure.
why this might disappear: aero price moves against usdc and the il eats the yield. tvl is small so big exits hurt.
risks: uncorrelated lp, impermanent loss can erase the apy edge. limited tvl ($2,246,857). defillama flagged ilrisk=yes for this pool.
aero is volatile. that's the whole bet.
what's your threshold for il before you pull the lp?
more at falsifylab.substack.com
$AERO #DeFiYield #OnchainAlpha
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-usdc-yield-farm-on-aerodrome #defi #crypto #yield #quant

2026-05-11 14:50:06 UTC

$CBBTC / $USDC
realistic apy 31%. headline 33.1%. capital range $5k to $81k. 1x leverage.
provide USDC/CBBTC liquidity on pancakeswap-amm-v3 (base). base fee tier plus no extra rewards. pool is uncorrelated LP, so the yield comes from two assets that don't move together.
why this might disappear: if CBBTC rallies sharply against USDC, impermanent loss eats the yield. or TVL drops below $1m and fills get thin.
risks
- uncorrelated LP, impermanent loss can erase the APY edge
- limited TVL ($2,699,396), exit liquidity constraint
- defillama flagged ilRisk=yes for this pool
two uncorrelated asset...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-usdc-yield-farm-on-pancakeswap #defi #crypto #yield #quant

2026-05-11 14:36:34 UTC

cbbtc/usdc on orca-dex (solana). realistic apy 31.6%, headline 33.8%. capital range $5k - $151k. 1x leverage.
base yield from swap fees only. no extra rewards. uncorrelated pair means btc moves vs stablecoin create impermanent loss. tvl under $5m ($5,047,657). a few big swaps or one withdrawal can crater depth and apy.
defillama flagged ilrisk=yes. you're getting paid to hold a volatile asset vs stable. a btc spike might exceed the yield.
what's your threshold for impermanent loss before you pull?
more at falsifylab.substack.com
$BTC #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-cbbtc-yield-farm-on #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

2026-05-11 14:00:12 UTC

today on falsifylab. 2026-05-11.
etf flows: https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/eth-etf-flow-recap-2026-05-08
options flow: https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/eth-options-flow-2026-05-11
stablecoin depeg: https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/depeg-watch-frax-086-off-peg
all in one place.
more at falsifylab.substack.com
OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield #FundingArb #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield #FundingArb

2026-05-11 13:34:52 UTC

$CBBTC / $USDC on pancakeswap-amm-v3 (base). realistic apy 31%, headline 33.1%. capital range $5k to $81k, 1x leverage.
uncorrelated LP pool. yield comes from two assets that don't move together. base fee tier, no extra rewards.
risks: uncorrelated LP means impermanent loss can erase the edge if CBBTC rallies against USDC. TVL at $2.7m, below $1m fills get thin. defillama flagged ilRisk=yes.
the apy is real until it isn't. how do you size uncorrelated LP pairs without getting wrecked on rebalance?
more at falsifylab.substack.com
#DeFiYield $BTC #Base
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-usdc-yield-farm-on-pancakeswap #defi #crypto #yield #quant #alpha

2026-05-11 13:31:01 UTC

eth etf saw +$3.6m inflow today, breaking a 1-day streak of inflows. the 5-day total sits at +$70.5m, with cumulative aum at $13.7b (since launch: $12.1b). for the trend to flip, we'd need a sustained drop in eth price below $2,800 and a corresponding spike in cme basis widening, that's the only signal that's historically preceded sustained outflows. more at falsifylab.substack.com #OnchainAlpha #ETHFlow #PerpFunding $ETH
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/eth-etf-flow-recap-2026-05-08
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/eth-etf-flow-recap-2026-05-08 #ETHFlow #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield

2026-05-11 13:30:26 UTC

btc etfs saw $-145.7m in outflows today, second straight day of red. five-day total still sits at +$622.7m, so the week's been a net winner despite the fade. total aum now $106.6b, cumulative inflows at $59.3b since launch.
for the outflow streak to flip back to inflows, you'd need a macro catalyst that shifts risk appetite back into crypto, rate cut expectations or a regulatory headline that breaks the current wait-and-see mood.
more at falsifylab.substack.com
BTCFlow #OnchainAlpha #PerpFunding $BTC
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/btc-etf-flow-recap-2026-05-08
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/btc-etf-flow-recap-2026-05-08 #BTCFlow #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield

2026-05-11 12:50:45 UTC

$weth/usdc on aerodrome-slipstream (base). headline 84%, realistic 81.9%. capital range $5k-$471k, 1x leverage.
base fee yield 35.1% plus rewards 48.9%. rewards drive 58% of the apy. if the reward token dumps or unlocks, number collapses.
uncorrelated lp exposure. eth and usdc move differently. impermanent loss can erase the edge. defillama flagged ilrisk=yes.
i'd rather take the base yield and skip the reward lottery.
anyone running this live? what's your real fill?
more at falsifylab.substack.com
#DeFiYield #Base #UncorrelatedLP
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-weth-yield-farm-on-aerodrome #defi #crypto #yield #quant

2026-05-11 12:50:30 UTC

arbitrum nitro repo hit a trigger: commit silence 21d. score flat at 1.0, no regression, but the scanner flags any gap beyond two weeks on a mainnet execution client.
30d numbers: 100 commits, 12 contributors, 30 merged PRs. baseline matches exactly. the repo isn't archived, open issues sit at 63, stargazers 908. the silence is recent, last commit 2026-04-23, so the 30d window still shows activity. but the trailing edge is empty.
market read: dev silence on a core execution client is rarely neutral. arbitrum's governance is active, but if this becomes a trend, it usually precedes either a major release fre...
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/alpha-signal-arb-dev-health-on-arbitrum #quant #trading #crypto

2026-05-11 12:50:07 UTC

deribit eth options recap, 2026-05-11.
put/call oi ratio 0.47. put/call volume ratio 0.21. calls dominate. total put oi 683k vs 1.4m calls. volume $3m call flow vs $0.7m puts.
nearest expiry 12may26. max-pain $2,325. atm iv 42.8%. spot $2,401, 3% above max-pain.
falsifiable: if spot holds above $2,400 into expiry, dealers who shorted calls against delta-hedged longs buy spot to stay flat, flips gamma positive. any dip below $2,325 and they unwind, selling into weakness.
more at falsifylab.substack.com
#OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield $ETH
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/eth-options-flow-2026-05-11 #markets #trading #quant

2026-05-11 12:00:59 UTC

deribit eth options recap 2026-05-11. put/call oi ratio 0.47, volume ratio 0.21. calls dominate both. total put oi 683k vs 1.4m calls. volume $3m call flow vs $0.7m puts.
nearest expiry 12may26. max-pain at $2,325. atm iv 42.8%. spot $2,401, 3% above max-pain. if spot holds above $2,400 into expiry, dealers who shorted calls against delta-hedged longs buy spot to stay flat. flips dealer gamma from neutral to positive. dip below $2,325 and they unwind, selling into weakness.
follow for daily on-chain + yield alpha. full scanner in paid digest →
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/eth-options-flow-2026-05-11 #PerpFunding #OnchainAlpha #FundingArb

2026-05-11 12:00:23 UTC

btc put/call oi ratio 0.63, put/call volume ratio 0.36. calls dominate on both fronts. nearest expiry 12may26 max-pain at $80,500, atm iv 33.6%.
dealer hedging flips to short gamma if spot pushes below $80k, forcing them to sell into weakness. right now spot at $83,277, above max-pain, so dealers are net long gamma and fade moves higher.
follow for daily on-chain + yield alpha. full scanner in paid digest →
OnchainAlpha #PerpFunding #FundingArb $BTC
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/btc-options-flow-2026-05-11
https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/btc-options-flow-2026-05-11 #PerpFunding #OnchainAlpha #FundingArb