Nick Pilon

Dad; software engineer; fan of giant robots in many contexts, board games, RPGs. Queer rights are not negotiable.

Pronouns: He/Him
Location: Halifax, NS

Public Key

npub1mz9jzreyn6hmqxq4cn36sppwz2862ct5nurpry4ztaz63q2au0ssshzlv9

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npilon_at_cosocial.ca@momostr.pink

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsd3zeppujfatasrq2ufcagqshp9ra9v96f7ps3j23973dgs9w78cgpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dsrwp7jx

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relay.damus.io

nos.lol

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Last Notes

2024-09-05 23:28:18

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even with all that this move could’ve been worthwhile if Singh had come out with a good reason - some policies that the Liberals refused to accept in the agreement that he now wants.
He didn’t. His announcement email was low grade fluff and posturing, and he didn’t even get the list of things passed out of the agreement right!
So yeah the whole thing comes off as clout farming. The NDP has 0% chance of winning the next election or beating the CPC & this doesn’t help.

2024-09-05 23:25:37

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on top of that, the supply and confidence agreement included a framework for the two parties to coordinate countermeasures to conservative obstruction. That’s gone now; that makes it far harder to schedule late night sessions to defeat CPC amendments. So it’s more likely the Liberals will have to compromise with the CPC to get anything through at all. That’s a bad play.

2024-09-05 23:23:52

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so the Liberals have little real incentive to deal with the NDP. Especially since Singh’s just shown he’s not a trustworthy partner.
Singh and the Liberals both need the next six months for the stuff they’ve passed to start helping people. Then a campaign of “the CPC will take away all the things!” has teeth. Literally in the case of dental care. 😇

2024-09-05 23:20:29

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breaking it - when the other side is holding up their end of the deal - is a panicky and desperate move. And if anything the NDP is in a worse place than the Liberals if an election were called tomorrow. There’s some elements of their polling that are marginally better, but lol polling.
And they’re still in debt from the 2021 campaign. Their party volunteers are engaged with provincial elections in BC and Saskatchewan.
So the NDP’s negotiating posture is weak.

2024-09-05 23:17:44

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the Supply and Confidence agreement was entered into in 2022, after the worst of COVID. The terms of the deal were that the NDP would support the Liberals through the dissolution of parliament in exchange for Liberal action on a specific list of NDP priorities.
The Liberals have been holding up their end of the bargain; the last items on the list - voting reforms and long term care regulations - are currently in progress and Pharmacare is not yet passed.

2024-09-05 20:55:40

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actually while we’re here taking about Sam Cooper I’d love to know what kind of funding he got backing his indie turn after his Global News gig

2024-09-05 16:22:58

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the Tenet one, right? I've been seeing it pop up, mostly from Americans over on BSky. I've been eyeballing the names involved and thinking that ... Huh ... A lot of those are folks connected to the Rebel News / True North networks...
But yeah lol chances of investigative journalism happening: 0%.

2024-09-05 15:58:13

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why do people take this guy seriously. Why. 😭 We’ve had two years of bogus foreign interference discourse because of his made up bullshit while ignoring things like actual Russian propaganda networks.

2024-09-04 19:33:20

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Never mind that the NDP's been aggressively backing "age verification" bills, which are conservative censorship wet dreams. Do you like Mastercard's prudish online content policies?
Good news, now Mastercard decides who gets to know how old you are, and anyone who lets you see *anything* without checking that has committed a felony!

2024-09-04 18:33:30

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of course the one who actually comes out of this looking weak and selfish is Jagmeet Singh. He's just validated every attack ad Poilievre will run against him: untrustworthy, self-interested, flaky. And he's been talking up a CPC gov't as inevitable.

2024-09-03 19:01:27

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ah, the delightful agricultural self-sufficiency version of the "globalists" dog whistle. Chances of this being correctly identified as antisemitism - 0%.
There are good reasons to value local food production. The formulation Rustad uses does not invoke any of them.

2024-09-02 16:53:08

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wait. BCU. Ahead of the NDP. 🤨🤨🤨

2024-09-02 15:41:27

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I for one am shocked, shocked to discover more of these statistical projection guys are actually hard right chuds.
Hmm funny how the totally neutral statistical projection keeps coming up “hard right win, everyone else stay home and don’t bother”… 🤔🤔🤔

2024-08-31 20:52:47

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no problem; I get it.
To make sure I’ve got it clear: industry is saying vote (BCCon?) just long enough to keep someone too environmentalist from getting in?

2024-08-31 17:15:58

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I mean that political speech is inherently an attempt to manufacture a specific reaction; the content matters little. But I’m also not really sure how the steel workers’ union supporting Eby is linked to what I said about BC industry bosses pulling strings to try to consolidate the right to push the NDP out of power?

2024-08-31 16:24:12

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I’d also file this under “don’t trust the kayfabe” - like I would absolutely expect a lumber workers union to talk up how the relatively union friendly government isn’t actually anti-forestry because otherwise their workers are going to be susceptible to the narrative from the bosses.
I’m sure the NDP could do better but elections are about choosing your opponent. I’d rather fight the NDP than the Cons to get good policy, b/c then I might win.

2024-08-31 15:18:18

“The BC NDP are too industry friendly.” While that’s not an unreasonable analysis, consider: BC industry leaders don’t think so. They’d rather go with bizarre Rustad’s climate change denying, conspiracy-pilled incoherence, even if it means burning the most successful center-right party in the province to the ground.
Only one party can win each riding. BC voters need to consider carefully.
From: @npub1spc…3gwu
https://mstdn.ca/@AlisonCreekside/113057216931916195

2024-08-30 17:20:15

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Totally Independent (TM) Provincial Party (TM).
Just like the Manitoba Cons had their entire election operation last year being run by Candice Bergen, interim CPC leader between O'Toole and Poilievre, and even Premier Stephenson couldn't overrule her strategic decisions.
(Which worked out ok b/c she TANKED them 😎 )
But point that out and our political pundits call for the fainting couches.

2024-08-29 19:53:35

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I’m sure Jason Markusoff will be along in about 30 seconds to explain why actually this shows that Danielle Smith is not at all bizarre and is extremely stable and normal

2024-08-29 01:59:21

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I think “bizarre” - which Nenshi’s trial ballooning in AB - has the right resonance here. Kevin throwing in the towel? Bizarre. The BC Cons? Bizarre. Their anti-vax climate change denying bigoted candidates? Bizarre!

2024-08-28 20:58:36

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soft target or not Eby’s actually got to swing at him, and voters have to hear about it.

2024-08-28 20:53:48

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BC progressives and leftists are going to have to consolidate behind the BCNDP, as they are, and campaign hard. 😬 Fingers crossed.

2024-08-28 16:04:17

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I've got *pretty strong* opinions about anti-electoral activism. 😉

2024-08-28 15:37:39

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got it a bunch of bomb-throwers and monkey-wrenchers whose entire theory of change amounts to “complain loudly about the status quo / (???) / utopia”.

2024-08-28 11:33:22

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the Longest Ballot folks are a ratfucking operation plain and simple. They’re exploiting legitimate progressive grievances with the electoral system to torpedo actual progressive candidates. We can’t get electoral reform by electing conservatives - the only party that purely benefits from the system as it is - and that’s all their stunts will do.

2024-08-25 14:35:42

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I’m a socialist but not a revolutionary; I work from the premise that we need to make effective change within our systems for as long as they exist. How can we best achieve that? What is *possible* to do? How can we change what is possible?
At the national level, the answer is “damage control” until we have better local politics. Eg in Canada not have seven of ten premiers be conservatives, and five of those seven quite extreme conservatives.

2024-08-25 13:48:58

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his support for defensive action in Ukraine has been solid.
Not sure which parade he skipped; he’s been a regular Pride attendee & great on queer rights.
Petro subsidies - I’d love to see them go away, but realistically just holding them at level is probably enough.
I’m 100% against means tested programs; universal programs are easier to administer and defend.
I’m not indigenous or Palestinian; I believe those who are & critique him on those files.

2024-08-25 13:19:57

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okay please tell me - what’s wrong with Trudeau?

2024-08-25 12:31:19

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if anything that phrasing is worse than I expected - it opens with the most generous possible interpretation of Ford’s actions, then asks the respondent to disagree with a statement of intent that is excessively charitable. That is gross, gross push polling.

2024-08-25 11:28:33

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especially since Coletto - who we are supposed to accept is a rigorous scientist and statistician - is using his own prompts to construct a narrative favorable to his pal! Asking “does Ford accepting responsibility” in a poll introduces the idea that it is objective that Ford accepted responsibility!
When you say straight off the site - did Burke and McKenna just go grab an old quote and run it verbatim or is this just Coletto sticking to script?

2024-08-25 10:56:02

Oh my: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cabinet-retreat-setup-2024-1.7303600
“David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, said other politicians — including Ontario Premier Doug Ford — have enjoyed a bump in popularity after apologizing or showing signs of "contrition and deep empathy for the state of how people are feeling." Trudeau has yet to do that, he said.”
Hey @npub1spc…3gwu another entry for your “Abacus Data BS” file.
PS: 100% the “Liberal MP” quoted in the rest of the piece is that one asshole from Newfoundland.

2024-08-24 18:09:08

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oh absolutely. But I think it’s worth looking at the details of the narratives they’re trying to sell. At the federal level the idea is that Petty Poilievre is an ultra macho dude, running the board with men, and hollowing out Liberal strength in the east.
But at the provincial level they’re selling the idea that Ford’s 🤢 stern, even 🤢 governance is appealing to sober and serious older ladies.
Even though they are, as the meme says, the same picture.

2024-08-24 17:22:27

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interesting that we get nearly the opposite pattern here as in federal polling - ford is preferred by older women, who are the most reliably liberal demographic at the federal level 🤔

2024-08-23 18:12:44

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this is literally a Nazi meme; they run it in both directions: socialists are just fascists *and* actually extremist right-wing chuds are the *real* socialists.
Next thing he's going to be showing up at the "victims of communism" memorial. 🙄

2024-08-22 20:20:07

https://rabble.ca/labour/locked-out-rail-workers-are-demanding-improved-safety/ - it's shameful that the Canadian national news media doesn't cover the substance of the dispute between the Teamsters and the CN/CP oligopoly.
The substance is *safety*. The Teamsters want contractual protections to ensure crews are fresh and able to prevent railway crashes, derailments, and *explosions*.
CN & CP want to run crews until they're asleep on their feet, and if that blows up a few cities, well, that's someone else's problem.
Nationalize the railways!

2024-08-22 17:17:49

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my usual question applies: do they report "I don't know / I'm not sure / Liberal or NDP?" at all?
Also that 35-49 women category is extremely 👀
I'm still going with "this is a combination of sampling bias and progressive voters 'knowing' that they're 'supposed' to not be rabid partisans".

2024-08-21 20:06:06

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I think political parties - like most organizations - are big complex things that are being pulled in lots of ways at once; our best strategy, as voters, is to attempt to put a party into government that is under the fewest possible counterproductive influences.

2024-08-21 19:06:38

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I'm not sure that's a good read on our problems. Harper's electoral success with the CPC was from abandoning the strategy of mimicking the Liberals; Trudeau's, likewise, was from abandoning a lot of mimicry of the old PCs.
And provincially, we've seen Liberals sticking to that same old strategy get wiped out, and a rise of polarized conservative / (NDP or green) races.

2024-08-21 18:34:55

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I'd be fine with FPTP if it encouraged having a big tent in the middle of the lowest common denominator. That's not too bad.
All FPTP rewards is getting 1 more vote than each of your opponents in half of ridings, by any means necessary. That's an *enormous* perverse incentive.

2024-08-21 17:25:48

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party contests doesn't surprise me; they're super corrupt and anything-goes as long as the party's down for it.
While I'd love PR or even ranked choice for elections, I think we might get more electoral reform mileage out of regularizing party operations. It's a big lift, though.

2024-08-21 17:15:53

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eugh that's disgusting. Are we talking party contests or real elections?

2024-08-21 16:53:00

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Though I'll frankly take either over the conservatives' "these parties are 100% independent, we pinky swear it, but all their campaigns are run by CPC operatives and if they deviate from Dear Leader's Holy Canon, we will raze them to the ground" approach.

2024-08-21 16:50:15

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While there's definitely drawbacks to the NDP's "all one party" approach, the sorry state of provincial Liberal parties shows there's advantages too.
The OnLibs are a hair closer to the LPC than the BCLibs, but only a hair. And even the NSLibs are hanging out around the LPC's right wing, and outflanked to the left by the NSPCs on many policies.

2024-08-20 22:43:53

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as a friend of mine put it, conservatives don’t even know what Canada looks like.

2024-08-19 15:06:51

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right-wing organizing for the past 30 years or so has drawn a *lot* from direct selling MLM scams. There's a massive emphasis on getting *everyone* to max out donations, set up auto recurring donations, etc.
A huge amount of this war chest is just going right back into campaigns to ensure that their audience doesn't escape from the gravity of the MLM. It's also the primary purpose of Pierre's tours, or "Fordfest".
Not to say it's not also used for other stuff, but...

2024-08-19 14:35:21

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I think that's pretty unlikely; the commentary I've seen has said that the clips all have identified sources. The AI video generators I'm aware of are like AI image generators; they piece together output from statistical soup, but that doesn't often look like regurgitating clips of their training data.
It's more likely just someone inexperienced; maybe someone who's used to assumbling clips for TikTok or insta?

2024-08-19 11:46:19

Here in Canada the Liberal government recently slightly increased the rate at which very large amounts of collected wealth was treated as income.
It was met with a full court press, claiming it would destroy retirees selling their cottages. The math didn’t work out, but the claims kept coming. Now, instead, our torqued PBO is claiming that actually the tax simply won’t bring in any new money mysteriously just shouldn’t bother.
🤔🤔🤔
From: @npub12pw…zvxn
https://zirk.us/@ChrisMayLA6/112987065092470198

2024-08-18 16:52:19

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hey you’ve seen my prior low opinion of the liberal and ndp media teams I’m going to be shocked if they even remember it exists a week from now

2024-08-18 16:36:02

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ah one of those “accidental mask off” moments then 🤣

2024-08-18 16:19:34

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wait he actually has an ad saying we should buy Russian jets. Is this an old ad or is he just blatantly campaigning on the MAGA “throw Ukraine to the wolves let Putin do as he wants” plank?

2024-08-17 23:17:01

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I think “always have been” undersells the transformation that’s occurred with the National Post, and then with Google and Meta’s intentional devastation of news media through monopolizing ad dollars. Today’s national news media is a very different business from what it was in the 90s or even before then.
Local news can help, but it naturally has less reach and lacks the whole nation focus.

2024-08-17 18:43:26

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that’s an amazing article; I hadn’t read it before!

2024-08-17 18:13:03

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it’s 100% one of those incentives problems. Most of their revenue is probably from market surveys, consumer tracking, advertising analytics, and other similar activities that… Frankly probably should be far more heavily regulated than they are.
A progressive gov’t that’s interested in active privacy regulation is an existential threat to them.

2024-08-17 16:33:56

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I think that’s even more true with polls than voting; the public nature of the response and the vague future-looking nature of the question invite that sort of speculation.

2024-08-17 13:52:09

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would actually be very interesting if it turned out a lot of Pest Poilievre’s phantom popularity was driven by distaste for Biden south of the border; both his personality and the assumption that he’d lose re-election. With the election there shaping up to be high energy Harris/Walz vs the weird couch-botherers, liberals might be more willing to engage again?

2024-08-15 23:30:55

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that’s the same outlet whose reporter asked about Poilievre’s Diagolon ties and queerphobia and then just printed his churlish lies instead of dressing them up isn’t it?

2024-08-15 21:55:33

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this is a fucking amazing piece. Every single journalist covering our conservative parties should be required to study it. Top marks, no notes.

2024-08-12 20:07:18

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If the bot had detectable patterns in the open text responses, it was a bad bot. LLMs are extremely good at generating varied, plausibly human text; but even pre-LLM, there were plenty of techniques for assembling text libraries.

2024-08-10 10:51:34

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of course the real problem here is ignorance. The election is scheduled for next year, Pushy Poilievre isn’t entitled to one just because he wants it. And the consumer carbon tax isn’t costing that plant a cent; it’s subject to the industrial tax, the one Poilievre sometimes says he’d keep.
But that’s all complicated; Pushy Poilievre says he can force everything to be simple again.

2024-08-10 10:45:37

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funny that he’s still running this same delaying the election bit, sad that his supporters fall for it. Back in 2022, a common line from the CPC on Twitter was that Poilievre would be PM before the year was out because there’d have to be another election once there was a new CPC leader.
Like, that this was somehow required.

2024-08-08 23:35:04

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for sure universal programs are better. Much easier to defend too. But helping now is better than helping later, and I think Trudeau and Singh were right that this was what they could pass and implement now.

2024-08-08 22:43:53

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national news media has been treating the dental program as a joke - “look what the liberals & NDP are wasting time on! No common sense! Who wants to see a dentist?”
But deferred dental care can be agonizing and have horrible QOL impacts. 450K people got a first crack at care that could relieve suffering they’ve had for years. Bypassing the do-nothing premiers and getting a hit rate this high is huge!

2024-08-02 11:01:50

Fascist and conservative movements derive their power from declaring themselves “normal”, everyone else “abnormal”, and then smashing everything in reach while their opponents are on permanent defense.
Challenging conservatives’ claims to “normal” “common sense” directly subverts this power. One of the most effective ways for a white dude to shut down an asshole making bigoted jokes is to just not accept that “everyone is thinking it”.
This strategy scales up.