DrJeff
Dr. Jeff

https://jeffross191961.substack.com

Random pleb.
Fund manager.
Former physician.

I'm mostly on Substack these days, writing Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook... come find me there!

https://jeffross191961.substack.com

- Macro
- Charts
- Bitcoin
- Geopolitics
- Random musings
- Sometimes funny
- Occasional doom and gloom
- Fund management insights
- Never individual investment advice

** Nothing to do with Vailshire Capital Management, LLC or Vailshire Partners, LP hedge fund **

Public Key

npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l

NIP-05 Address

DrJeff@primal.net

Profile Code

nprofile1qqst0xtvrqlqxm0j0qpfgkuqh0wgkzl4judkvgdgd0e4d8pnyytlqlgpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dsrpepqy

Publishing to

relay.damus.io

nos.lol

Author Public Key

npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l

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Last Notes

2026-07-14 13:01:22 UTC

Status update:
🐂🐂 ✅
🐂
🚫
🐻

2026-07-12 19:20:30 UTC

Forget dirty government cuck bucks.
Bitcoin is the blue collar dollar.

2026-07-06 22:49:43 UTC

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I love it.
Selling bitcoin for fiat yield payments. 🤦🏻‍♂️
This is a good example of how bitcoin always flows to where it is best treated. ⚡️
#nevent1q…gp6l

2026-06-25 17:32:01 UTC

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Congrats to all who never stopped believing. 🎉
#58kGang
#nevent1q…eexm

2026-06-18 21:28:44 UTC

Bitcoin just touched its 200-week SMA for the fifth time in history.
The worst 1-year return following the prior four touches: +121%.
Every single cycle ended with a new all-time high.
Issue #9 is live. Free and paid content inside.
Enjoy! 🍿
#Bitcoin #Macro #Chartbook
https://substack.com/home/post/p-202635656

2026-06-04 12:35:38 UTC

The fear is palpable among the many who still price their lives in dollars or other fiat currencies.
Few understand that Bitcoin is the only Denominator that matters.

2026-06-03 21:07:37 UTC

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What I'm watching... 👀
According to adherents of the Power Law, June 2026 may be the last possible month for a legitimate #58kGang party.
I'm here for the possibility. 🍿 🎉 🍿
#bitcoin
#nevent1q…qrdc

2026-05-29 18:24:36 UTC

“If you use their money you will be their slave.”
- Porter Stansberry

2026-05-21 12:23:37 UTC

Issue #7 of Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook is live! 👀
But Seriously... What Is Your Home Actually Worth?
Your home is up 68.7% in dollar terms over the past decade. Congratulations!
But what if you measured it in something that cannot be printed?
Down -51.7% in gold terms.
Down -98.5% in Bitcoin terms.
Same asset. Three measuring sticks. Three completely different realities.
Also in this issue:
→ The 2-year Treasury yield is rising again... is "higher for longer" a constraint, not a choice?
→ Bitcoin update: what started as a bear flag has morphed into a bullish ascending channel. But the 200-day SMA remains undefeated.
→ SPX/Gold updated: a bounce reminiscent of Q4 1972. Time will tell.
→ Your friendly neighborhood physician on resistance training and why the scale is lying to you
"Great nations are built on proof of work. And they die on proof of stake."
Read it here: https://jeffross191961.substack.com/p/but-seriously-what-is-your-home-actually
Not investment advice. Not medical advice. Just a curious observer sharing what is on his charts.

2026-05-15 02:03:16 UTC

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Looks amazing!

2026-05-07 20:49:22 UTC

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🤝

2026-05-07 11:53:37 UTC

Issue #6 of Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook is live! 👀
The Other Side of the Storm
I have a confession: I have been spending too much time in the doom loop. This issue is different.
→ AI is augmenting workers, not replacing them -- the data says so
→ US unemployment near historic lows despite decades of automation fears
→ S&P 500 earnings growing at 18-22% -- the AI productivity story is real
→ Bitcoin priced in gold: strikingly similar to the Dec. 2022 bottom
→ Bitcoin short-term: bearish ascending channel resolved to the upside, now knocking on the 200-day SMA
→ Silver: third test of upper boundary resolved to the upside THIS MORNING
"Great nations and economies are built on proof of work. And they die on proof of stake."
Plus: proof of work nutrition. Yes, really.
Not investment advice. Not medical advice. Just a curious observer sharing what is on his charts.
Read it here: https://substack.com/@jeffross191961/p-196704246

2026-04-23 11:56:35 UTC

Issue #5 of Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook is live! 👀
Signals Converging
Four independent frameworks. One directional message.
→ The US dollar reclaims its 200-day SMA -- bullish near-term, complicated long-term
→ Bitcoin forming a second bear flag -- with liquidity confirming the warning
→ Michael Howell's GLI suggests lower crypto prices over the coming 13 weeks
→ Brent Crude is a coiled spring -- the geopolitical wildcard nobody is pricing correctly
→ NASDAQ/Gold: a 40-year pattern that has repeated twice is repeating again
The window for clear thinking may be shorter than most people realize.
Read it here: https://substack.com/home/post/p-195167379
Not investment advice. Just a curious observer sharing what's on his charts.

2026-04-21 14:43:44 UTC

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These are fair criticisms. Here's my response:
If you believe--as I do--that humanity/society/governments/financial systems/monetary systems/etc. move in cycles, then my views may not seem so contradictory or "bizarre," as you state.
For instance, a man does not stand on a beach, hoping for a warmth and a sun tan when it is snowing and lake is water is frozen. When Summer is over and Winter comes, he is wise to wear warm clothes and build a fire to stay warm.
Likewise, when we approach the climax of a #FourthTurning, then the existing human systems and structures necessarily begin to collapse, and new ones are built on the other side.
History has shown that all involved countries essentially turn "communist"... that is, from "free market capitalism" and individualism to central command and control. Only by banding together and working towards a common goal (against a common enemy) can a nation hope to survive and win a major war against a major adversary.
I'm not pro-war, but I am a realist who believes that WW3 has already begun... similar to how WW2 began in the mid-to-late 1930s for Europe, Asia, and North Africa... not in 1941, as many Americans believe.
Finally, it is naive to believe that America is still a "free market capitalist" system in 2026. The US government is heavily involved in the both the financial and monetary systems... directing funds towards the rapid build-out of the military industrial complex at the expense of other "non-essential" industries, massively expanding government debt, actively debasing the people's purchasing power, etc.
In short, the US government is actively picking winners and losers--central command and control, a form of "communism"--in order to compete with their named adversaries. Ironically, the US is becoming more like China in order to compete with China.
This response is already getting too long, but I haven't even addressed the coming age of AI and robotics, which also mean that humans will lose across the board in almost all labor competitions. If "free market capitalism" still exists in the 2030s and beyond, then most humans who try to compete will be the recipients of creative destruction.
Soon, humans won't be able to outthink AI or outwork robots... a la John Henry, the "steel-drivin' man." -- If this is the case, then our entire society/government/financial system/monetary system/etc. will need to be re-thought and re-created.
Hopefully this helps. Cheers.

2026-04-17 14:23:57 UTC

Just dropped!
I had a great conversation with @nprofile…hd7x on the latest What Bitcoin Did show.
Check it out and let me know your thoughts. 🔥
And don’t forget to zap Danny for his tireless efforts and excellent interviews! ⚡️
https://youtu.be/JPrM0J-eUfU?si=lJQVVv0eKP_d2Zn0

2026-04-13 15:20:20 UTC

We are all military analysts now.

2026-04-10 00:22:03 UTC

lol… so many people and market participants reading/watching mainstream media think the war in the Middle East is basically over.
Things about to get real in the coming days.
Geopolitical and financial reorganization is just getting started.
#FourthTurning vibes

2026-04-09 12:11:03 UTC

Issue #4 of Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook is live! 👀
What Are You Measuring Your Wealth In?
→ S&P 500 Total Return: +286% in dollars. +0.17% in gold. -97.59% in Bitcoin.
→ Oil tells the same story — even hard assets fail the sound money test
→ Why central banks are quietly abandoning the dollar measuring stick
→ SPX/Gold at 1.43 — the 100-year view, updated
→ A bonus health observation from your friendly neighborhood physician 😄
The dollar is a shrinking ruler. Here's what the charts look like when you use a better one.
Read it here: https://jeffross191961.substack.com/p/what-are-you-measuring-your-wealth?r=8bgxt
Not investment advice. Just a curious observer sharing what's on his charts.

2026-03-27 19:08:39 UTC

It’s been awhile.
Who’s getting ready for yet another #58kGang party?!?
🥳

2026-03-27 14:02:44 UTC

Bonus post just dropped for subscribers of Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook 👀
What I'm Watching: The MOVE Index & the NASDAQ 100
The bond market's "fear index" is spiking. Historically, local MOVE Index peaks have coincided with local NASDAQ bottoms.
Are we approaching another peak? We'll see.
Free to read for all subscribers. Link below.
Not investment advice. Just a curious observer sharing what's on his charts.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-192312552?source=queue

2026-03-23 19:12:45 UTC

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🤝

2026-03-23 18:21:50 UTC

Bonus Issue 2.5 just dropped... free for everyone! 👀
https://substack.com/home/post/p-191893327

2026-03-22 02:01:12 UTC

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I had the same experience with pulmonary embolism. 😳

2026-03-22 01:59:15 UTC

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Agreed.
But we’re definitely picking fights at the forefront.
In the end, I reckon that most of the world will be involved in the fight.
And the world will look, act, and work very differently than how it does now.

2026-03-22 01:35:18 UTC

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Agreed.
I’m confident this will be the ultimate outcome, though I’m not looking forward to path to get there.

2026-03-22 01:34:21 UTC

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I imagine that even the world’s most powerful military can get spread too thin.

2026-03-22 01:25:18 UTC

So… in the coming days/weeks:
- US vs Iran over Kharg island.
- US vs Russia over Cuba.
- US vs China over Taiwan.
Seems like a lot. 🤔
Hegemony-ending kind of stuff, no?
What could possibly go wrong?
🇺🇸
Issue #3 coming on March 26th…
https://substack.com/@jeffross191961/note/c-231324990?r=8bgxt&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action

2026-03-20 19:15:24 UTC

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Here's the market cap of both gold and bitcoin.
Source:
https://ingoldwetrust.report/chart-gold-bitcoin-marketcap/?lang=en
https://blossom.primal.net/e0e37f2c0fbbb0847d0c1ebeec068cf9e552c53bda4984d453455d6efb55f4fa.png

2026-03-20 17:20:25 UTC

What I'm watching… 👀
The Nasdaq 100 rarely closes below its 200-day moving average… but when it does, it has historically gotten worse before it gets better.
We're there now. 🍿
More in Issue #3… March 26th.
https://substack.com/profile/13972097-jeff-ross/note/c-230721992?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=8bgxt

2026-03-17 14:00:16 UTC

It’s early days, but…
If you’re interested and have found it helpful so far, I would be honored to have you help spread the word of my new newsletter (Dr. Jeff’s Macro Chartbook) on Substack.
You will be rewarded for your efforts with free months of subscription.🤑
Here’s how to help:
https://open.substack.com/pub/jeffross191961/p/invite-your-friends-to-read-dr-jeffs?r=8bgxt&utm_medium=ios

2026-03-16 22:36:34 UTC

The script?
Team A: Get overly involved and distracted in the PG, by design.
Team C: Make a quick move for T while Team A is “too far away to meaningfully help.”
Team A: “We would have liked to help more, but the PG crisis was imminent and most of our former allies refused to help. What could we do?”

2026-03-16 16:40:08 UTC

For those curious about the person behind "Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook"... I just updated my About page on Substack.
As a registered advisor I'm (frustratingly) limited in what I can say publicly, but I can still share observations, frameworks, and general macro thinking.
It feels good to contribute to the public conversation again... especially during these increasingly interesting times. 👀
Onward and upward.
Here's a link to the updated page: https://jeffross191961.substack.com/about

2026-03-13 20:58:58 UTC

“If the pattern holds — and there is no guarantee it will — global M2 may be approaching a cyclical peak sometime in the coming weeks or months. Or maybe it just did in February 2026. Bitcoin, it appears, already knew.” 👀
https://substack.com/home/post/p-190653110

2026-03-13 18:26:19 UTC

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🤝

2026-03-13 16:28:39 UTC

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I’d say since the GFC, then accelerating in 2014.

2026-03-13 16:24:53 UTC

Early WW3 vibes.

2026-03-13 15:09:13 UTC

After my first two issues on Substack this week, "Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook" has already cracked the top 10 Rising Bestsellers in Finance! 🎉
I'm blown away by the response. Thanks for your support.
Issue #3 coming on March 26th. 👀
https://blossom.primal.net/23987dfeee02c9e3766b996b32ef243bdaa0e8d05e731082feb47be71ec5c83c.png

2026-03-12 22:47:47 UTC

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Thanks bro.
I’ve been taking a much-needed break from podcast interviews and social media.

2026-03-12 21:20:09 UTC

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Plebs + proof of real work for the win.

2026-03-12 20:51:06 UTC

Because I like you, here's a free glimpse of an amazing chart that I'm regularly watching... 👀
Three data lines are overlapping:
1. ISM Manufacturing PMI (multi-color line)
2. Global M2 (blue line)
3. Bitcoin price (red/green candles)
I still believe that the unimpressive bitcoin price performance in 2025 resulted primarily from the lack of a positive US manufacturing cycle since 2021.
Everything became distorted during the 2021 Covid-related, fiscal/monetary easing debacle, but cycles have a way of re-establishing themselves.
ISM Manufacturing PMI is finally starting to recover.
It will be interesting to see if the price of bitcoin responds in kind, as it (seemingly) has in the past.
Not a prediction, just some observations.
Cheers. 🍻
https://blossom.primal.net/d428fc79e6967527a568e95657b84c5c38726912aed4a3a357c35314116d2d96.png

2026-03-10 18:32:22 UTC

Issue #2 of the brand-new "Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook" drops this Thursday, March 12th. 👀
Each issue: ~5 charts I'm actively watching as a fund manager, with commentary on what I think they're telling us. Macro, geopolitics, the occasional Bitcoin rant, and unsolicited health/wellness advice -- all included at no extra charge. 😁
If you missed Issue #1 -- the most important macro chart of the last 100 years -- you can read it here:
https://jeffross191961.substack.com/p/dr-jeffs-monthly-macro-chartbook
Note: I will never give individual investment advice. Don't ask. 😉

2026-03-10 18:13:04 UTC

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I didn’t know that was an option. Thanks!

2026-03-10 17:47:57 UTC

A systematic process is ♾️ better than a prediction.

2026-03-09 19:32:35 UTC

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Just as ISM Manufacturing PMI is increasing (a positive), global liquidity rate of change is slowing a bit (a negative). I'll try to touch on the nuances (and their implications) more in the newsletter. -- We are living in interesting times...

2026-03-09 16:38:29 UTC

I'm doing a new thing. On Substack. 👀
Hopefully, it will provide value to some of you!
https://blossom.primal.net/c44ac727fac3c64c9b2d4730ac705cae776fc464e3e487bd4650effdb5960002.jpg
https://open.substack.com/pub/jeffross191961/p/dr-jeffs-monthly-macro-chartbook?r=8bgxt&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

2026-03-07 04:33:03 UTC

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Yep. Still holds true.
I’ll be astonished if the price is below $69k again any time after 2026.

2026-02-17 19:03:05 UTC

Have you traded your savings account today, degen?

2026-02-01 04:27:02 UTC

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🤝

2026-02-01 04:26:38 UTC

I recently received this good news from BarclayHedge about my little friends and family hedge fund:
“Vailshire Partners, LP has ranked #1 in the Multi-Strategy - Past Three Years category for the 3rd Quarter, 2025.”
I make lots of mistakes, but sometimes we get things right with our long-term systematic investment approach.
https://blossom.primal.net/dc206a5a71cfbbee56a334fbe2d6321c10a952c18f6f9f11ddb9167bac39d1db.jpg

2026-01-20 17:43:12 UTC

I don’t know about you , but I think it’s pretty wild to watch the post-WW2 geopolitical and financial world order fragment and reorganize in real time. 👀

2026-01-16 13:56:37 UTC

Ozempic is the new Prozac.

2026-01-16 02:54:43 UTC

John 14:27
[27] Peace I leave with you; my peace I give to you. Not as the world gives do I give to you. Let not your hearts be troubled, neither let them be afraid.
- Jesus of Nazareth

2026-01-15 12:36:33 UTC

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🤝

2026-01-14 19:30:02 UTC

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🤝

2026-01-14 19:18:55 UTC

Based on the amount of comments (primarily on YouTube) that I am a "moron" who should "stay in [my] lane" and not discuss geopolitics because I am "way out of [my] depth"...
I would recommend that such folks take some time to actually read the National Security Strategy of the United States of America, which was published by the Whitehouse in November 2025.
Afterwards, if you would like to have a civilized discussion about my misinterpretations of the Trump administration's geopolitical and military actions/intentions, I would be amenable.
Here is a link for your ease:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

2026-01-14 15:24:46 UTC

Another quarterly Mastermind banger with @nprofile…5gu2 , @nprofile…hs8c , and @nprofile…9pq8 ⚡
We discussed:
- Venezuela
- Taiwan/China
- Restructuring of the geopolitical world order
- Semiconductors
- Elon Musk's predictions
- The Clarity Act
- US Treasury yields
- Jerome Powell
- Bitcoin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzzFBvzONBo

2026-01-14 14:03:36 UTC

How different forms of "money" actually work over time:
Government fiat currency: Pay more, get less.
Gold: Pay about the same, get about the same.
Bitcoin: Pay less, get more.
--------
Choose your savings vehicle and financial ruler wisely.

2026-01-13 20:20:24 UTC

Silver looking the most technically overbought at the moment.
Time for market participants to rotate?
🤔
https://blossom.primal.net/2f786e6839d1b3066cee5d47187e8783f41206b5332c0055f2c109e296cd35f3.png

2026-01-10 23:40:49 UTC

A fantastic and highly troubling article by Craig Tindale.
Strong recommend.
Shout-out to @nprofile…rn6q for the heads up to read it.
https://substack.com/inbox/post/183505662?r=orbm&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true&triedRedirect=true

2026-01-10 20:45:37 UTC

Reality is starting to bite.
“While the West financializes deficits, rivals industrialize surpluses.”
- Aris Roussinos

2026-01-08 17:39:04 UTC

“The marginal cost of intelligence is trending toward zero.“
- Dr. Alex Wissner-Gross

2026-01-08 17:22:24 UTC

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Don’t fight the Fed(eral government), as they continue picking winners and losers. 👀
#nevent1q…kx09

2026-01-07 17:35:32 UTC

Suspected US foreign policy "interests" for possible/probable intervention (in no particular order) by 2028:
1. Venezuela ✅
2. Colombia
3. Cuba
4. Greenland
5. Panama
6. Brazil
7. Manitoba/Saskatchewan/Alberta
8. Guyana
9. Nicaragua
10. Bolivia
11. Multiple Caribbean island nations

2026-01-06 16:09:17 UTC

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lol… if this is the Big League, I don’t want to play

2026-01-06 16:06:52 UTC

I don’t come here as often these days, but it’s sad to see the rapidly rising large number of imposter accounts here on nostr.
Yet another reason to spend less time on social media.

2026-01-05 18:44:28 UTC

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Same.

2026-01-05 16:15:35 UTC

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🤝

2026-01-05 16:05:01 UTC

In case you haven't noticed yet, Central and South America are the new Middle East for US diplomacy, economics, and military action.
Much more to come, I'm guessing, in the Western Hemisphere before 2029.

2025-12-31 02:57:04 UTC

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To be clear, I mean to say:
*It could get* as high as: $700,000
AND
*It could get* as low as: $50,000
--------
I am NOT predicting that it will visit either of these levels... but that either/both are on the periphery of my probable price range for 2026.
#nevent1q…c734

2025-12-29 16:06:16 UTC

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This is how I think about it comprehensively. Unfortunately, most people are degens who only care/think about how high it might go.

2025-12-29 15:06:09 UTC

My 2026 bitcoin price guesses (in USD terms):
Average price: $145,000
As high as: $700,000
As low as: $50,000
(Just my guesses. Never individual advice.)

2025-12-27 16:56:02 UTC

For investors:
“Don’t fight the fiscal stimulus” is the new “Don’t fight the Fed.”

2025-12-26 19:54:46 UTC

We are all geopolitical analysts now.

2025-12-22 13:55:26 UTC

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Merry Christmas!

2025-12-20 00:29:54 UTC

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Thanks!
Merry Christmas to you as well

2025-12-19 23:56:32 UTC

Bitcoin and AI are both competing for the same, limited electrons in the Western Hemisphere.
In 2025, AI is winning the electron race.
Bitcoin and AI are both competing for the dwindling purchasing power of fiat currencies in the Western Hemisphere.
In 2025, AI is winning the purchasing power race.
--------
2026 promises to be interesting. 🍿

2025-12-15 15:29:35 UTC

Status update:
Bullish on accelerating Congressional borrowing and spending in 2026.
🐂🤡🌎

2025-12-13 13:09:32 UTC

I’ve just been informed that some people still read the newspaper.
Please confirm.

2025-12-10 21:19:24 UTC

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More and more people are beginning to understand that Bitcoin is universal energy money.
#nevent1q…7ja2

2025-12-07 17:57:26 UTC

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In light of these guesses…
Gold, silver, other desirable commodities, and bitcoin will likely provide the best means of purchasing power preservation and accrual over the coming years.

2025-12-07 17:44:06 UTC

Some guesses for 2026:
1. The Federal Reserve will lower the fed funds rate below 3.5%...
2. Which will spur economic growth and inflation...
3. Which will cause the long end of the Treasury yield curve to rise towards and above 5%...
4. Which will be unacceptable to Wall Street and the current administration...
5. Which will induce the Fed to begin yield curve control...
6. Which will cause material weakness in the US dollar...
7. Which will lead to further currency debasement...
8. Which will become fodder for large increases and volatility across risk assets.

2025-12-05 21:53:49 UTC

Don't miss the significance of the secular shift that began (again) in January 2022.
TL;DR
The world has shifted away from US-centric Proof of Stake Financialization and towards Global Proof of Work Industrialization.
Ignore this shift (and its investment/savings implications) at your own risk.
https://blossom.primal.net/13aad5436c1d741a924bf225d565f07c410789ce4062ab4a103d43d9362ac0e9.png

2025-12-03 22:49:24 UTC

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Originally posted in January 2025, I reposted it because many people who were excitedly using leverage during the bull market were starting to get liquidated during the current bear market.
I hate to see it.

2025-12-03 22:30:33 UTC

Rather than peaking in 4Q 2025--as I had previously anticipated--important macro assets are actually showing signs of major cyclical bottoms at current levels.
In my opinion, the anticipated bear market for certain assets and sectors has been pulled forward into 2025... and 2026 looks surprisingly bullish based on the relevant macro and technical data points that I closely follow.
In light of this, I will be re-opening my small (award winning) friends and family macro-oriented, Bitcoin-friendly, multi-strategy hedge fund to appropriate HNWIs who share a long-term investment time horizon with me.
Per US regulators, Limited Partnerships in the hedge fund are only available to (verifiable) Accredited Investors and Qualified Clients.
If you are seriously interested in joining me in the hedge fund--and you meet the above-mentioned criteria--feel free to send me a DM.
Cheers.

2025-12-02 17:07:54 UTC

You may think that you own your dollars or other fiat assets, but the government actually owns your purchasing power.

2025-12-01 22:11:09 UTC

Applying logic to exponential growth over a long enough timeframe will make you look insane by the vast majority of people.

2025-11-25 03:47:00 UTC

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“Bitcoin is [still] screaming for more liquidity.”
The FOMC has a long and sordid history of not acting appropriately until it is forced to do so.
1. Too little, too late.
2. Too much, too late.
3. Repeat.
It soon may be forced to act.
#nevent1q…3qpk

2025-11-23 01:48:18 UTC

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An epic take 😂

2025-11-20 20:52:47 UTC

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Life often finds a way to kick us in the nuggets when we make exorbitant plans for future prosperity, no?
Sorry it's been a tough year, bruh. 🍻

2025-11-20 20:24:43 UTC

What I'm watching... 👀
Priced in gold, the last time MSTR was as oversold (in RSI terms) on the weekly charts as it is today was during the deep valley of the flash Covid recession in March of 2020 (see vertical green lines).
At that harrowing time, MSTR reached as low as $9 per share.
For a long-term investor, this may be a proverbial "blood in the streets" moment for MSTR shareholders.
Not investment advice... but interesting to note.
Thoughts?
https://blossom.primal.net/9e37ba56a0a8945196a4108bf860d8d36719fba73168c452d93042ea30126c07.png

2025-11-20 05:02:53 UTC

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Despite the end of the shutdown, the Liquidity Blob remains stuck in the government’s coffers.
Bitcoin is screaming for more liquidity.
The 2-year Treasury yield is screaming for a lower fed funds rate.
But, sadly, the market screams are falling on deaf ears.
It’s painful to watch.

2025-11-06 22:36:16 UTC

Once (if) the government shutdown ends, Fed Net Liquidity will become relevant and sexy again.
Until then, the Liquidity Blob remains stuck in the Fed’s and Treasury’s back pockets.
When (if) the shutdown ends, the Liquidity Blob will finally and mercifully begin shifting back to the people and the public markets.
This shift should quickly be reflected in the fiat price of #bitcoin.
GM.

2025-10-29 17:55:50 UTC

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A great read. Thanks for sharing, Brad!

2025-10-29 17:43:57 UTC

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Aggressive central planning by the current administration.

2025-10-29 17:20:30 UTC

The two most important (and generally overlooked) factors in determining (guessing) bitcoin's fiat price action over the coming quarters are:
1. Chinese liquidity
2. American manufacturing
I expect both to accelerate... materially.
Just my guess. You do you.

2025-10-29 17:14:46 UTC

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I don’t know about THE most important signal, but it is a very important (and under-watched) signal.

2025-10-28 22:15:00 UTC

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I historically agree... as both a Christian and a staunch free market capitalist.
But in the coming (presumed) Digital Age--which will be dominated by AI and robotics--humans may not be gainfully employed... and may not have the monetary means to provide material needs to their unemployed neighbor.
Capitalism doesn't work well for humanity if humans are the weak link across all professions, white collar or blue collar.

2025-10-28 22:11:48 UTC

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Good question.
The economy will likely shift towards energy and compute. That is, the companies that require an increasing amount of energy/compute will need to purchase an increasing amount from the explorers, producers, builders, distributors, etc. of the energy/compute.
Even though the marginal cost of production will trend towards zero, the exponential increase in need for such things will be the primary drivers of the Digital economy.

2025-10-28 21:14:14 UTC

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Probably the same entities that determine clean water, electricity, physical infrastructure, etc.

2025-10-28 21:10:17 UTC

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According to the "Abundance" theory, AI-related companies will become increasingly profitable while unemployment surges. In order to stave off a revolution from the unemployed and desperately poor peasants, the lucrative companies would pay a meaningful tax, which would be distributed as UBS and/or UBI.