peterdutoit@peterdutoit.com
Peter du Toit

I speak about climate futures, mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis. 🇿🇦

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Last Notes

2023-10-12 09:36:37 UTC

Now that the Actuaries have woken up to the reality bearing down on us like a freight train, will the rest of us too?
The consequences of going to a permanent +1.5°C of warming by 2030 and then +2°C by 2050 are going to push many countries to the brink of collapse.
https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insights/futureset/futureset-insights/systemic-risk-scenarios/extreme-weather-leading-to-food-and-water-shortage
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis https://image.nostr.build/42782a5519b39dde95df97b0d2f60d478fcb5c5fee12e60ee8e5b3b711fcea24.jpg

2023-10-06 16:28:51 UTC

We are stepping into a brand new world.
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF):
“[September] as a whole was around 1.75°C warmer than an estimate of the September average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period.”
“For January to September, the global mean temperature for 2023 is 1.40°C higher than the 1850-1900.”
https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-september-2023
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy

2023-09-14 04:49:18 UTC

Our legacy in one graphic.
“Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries” (13 Sep 2023)
Katherine Richardson et al https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458
#PlanetaryBoundries https://image.nostr.build/3cc4313720a3129d9e8f91b58360d24a71fec5e96a9f9774a13a58a48b79ec6a.jpg

2023-09-13 14:23:30 UTC

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https://berkeleyearth.org/whats-new/

2023-09-13 14:22:38 UTC

Data just released by the team at Berkley Earth for August shows that the global mean temperature for the months of June to August above the 1850 to 1900 average looked like this:
June +1.47ºC
July +1.54ºC
August +1.68ºC
Source: berkeleyearth.org/whats-new/
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis #GlobalHeating
2023 is now almost certain to be the warmest year in the instrumental period. https://image.nostr.build/25de994b4887b2b88b149962c1c9fc6aadd3b22731948712c2294110ebf0d08f.jpg https://image.nostr.build/e689c989563148255f74e05b4ea158e82022d088dea4931fe9a9c85b0655f516.jpg https://image.nostr.build/b1e66b20e9e5ea32a6bc14a297dfc273f6552ff689c6d8d2d23e15f5e786b887.jpg

2023-09-06 15:31:34 UTC

No surprise at all, the June-July-August season was warmest on record globally by a large margin.
Again as said before preparation for the summer of 2024 needs to start *now* as it is projected to be even hotter than 2023.
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis
https://climate.copernicus.eu/summer-2023-hottest-record

2023-08-27 05:57:46 UTC

Wet Bulb Temperature risks 2023-2050:
“Even heat-adapted people cannot carry out normal outdoor activities past a wet-bulb temperature of 32°C (90°F), equivalent to a heat index of 55;°C (131°F). A reading of 35°C (95°F) – equivalent to a heat index of 71°C (160°F) – is considered the theoretical human survivability limit for up to six hours of exposure.”
Pictured: locations on earth that are at increased risk of reaching these thresholds for a number of days annually in next 27 years
Quote source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature
Graphic source: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_FullVolume.pdf
#ClimateLiteracy #WetBulbTemperatures #ClimateCrisis https://cdn.nostr.build/i/f2d1557eacc46a3496f3c05182a6c168f6137a6cc064d1157a596f939e9f56db.jpg

2023-08-26 17:56:13 UTC

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As peer-reviewed science, is the most reliable source of scientific knowledge we have. Can ask that you point me to any reputable peer reviewed studies or publications that back up these statements?

2023-08-26 10:58:42 UTC

#ClimateLiteracy
Take a look at these two images.
The first is from NASA and when sharing it they state “July 2023 was the hottest month globally since modern recordkeeping began in 1880, measuring at 1.18°C (2.12°F) above NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s 1951-1980 baseline average.“
we
The second image is from ECMWF and in its release they state “The month (July) is estimated to have been around 1.5°C warmer than the average for 1850-1900.”
Who’s right is it +1.18°C of warming or +1.5°C
We
They are both right. The difference is NASA is using 1950-1980 as the baseline and ECMWF is using 1850-1900 as their baseline.
In the work we do (see my cover image) we use the ECMWF baseline of 1850-1900.
Using that baseline, 2023 so far, has warmed +1.28°C
We are expected to cross the +1.5°C of warming by about 2030 and +2°C by 2050, the impacts of which are now coming clearer into view. https://cdn.nostr.build/i/bcb44bc5941730dbf4d2a05366b9b9c014106cf9f21b191334027311cdd45356.jpg https://cdn.nostr.build/i/deef50e70ce8a62bba808972c59681d4fe333e9155fdd4c41a9e8eff85db2458.jpg

2023-08-24 05:28:13 UTC

Current warming above the preindustrial average: +1.28°C
June 2023: +1.4°C
July 2023: +1.54°C
We are on track to reach +1.5°C of warming by about 2030 and +2°C by about 2050.
What will the heat domes look like then?
#Heatwave #HeatDome #ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis
https://www.threads.net/@weatherprofjeff/post/CwUAikqhyf5/

2023-08-22 17:49:02 UTC

With June and July having been the hottest months ever recorded, and now August likely to follow, 2023 looks set to become the hottest year on record.
For analysis see https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/on-track-for-the-warmest-august-on
So far (Aug 2023) we are at +1.28°C of warming above the preindustrial average.
You can see the Oxford University real-time tracker here https://www.globalwarmingindex.org

2023-08-22 09:41:22 UTC

This is a fire currently burning out of control in Alexandroupolis, Greece.
They are currently evacuating everyone in its path, including the hospital. https://greekreporter.com/2023/08/22/alexandroupolis-hospital-evacuated-wildfires-greece/
As mentioned a few days ago, https://mastodon.green/@peterdutoit/110920113513702018 climate refugees will not necessarily be from far away places but from local communities, sometimes from the next town or village.
The displacement and movement of people is set to increase dramatically with each 0.1°C of warming.
We are currently heating at about 1.22 W/m2. http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/UhOh.14August2023.pdf
The month of June was the hottest ever recorded - above +1.4°C above the preindustrial average https://www.threads.net/@hausfath/post/CwPBjN7rkX_/
So was July at 1.54°C https://berkeleyearth.org/july-2023-temperature-update/ and
August is set to break its record too. https://www.threads.net/@hausfath/post/CwNsVAixJ8w/
If we cannot find a way to slam the brakes on our current emission trajectory there is a lot of disruption, pain and misery in our collective futures.
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateRefugees https://cdn.nostr.build/i/7ca15fe95e410c843b20e74e79dd453095f2f8932d6ff98b87fd156e6cbebd95.png https://cdn.nostr.build/i/7ca15fe95e410c843b20e74e79dd453095f2f8932d6ff98b87fd156e6cbebd95.png

2023-08-18 09:22:11 UTC

⚠️ Early Warning
Extreme precipitation event forecast for US west coast Aug 18-21. Flash flooding very likely.
Data source https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/efi2web_tp?area=North%20America&base_time=202308180000&day=3&quantile=99
https://void.cat/d/XoxEjXtBBUqWvdr7Ly7o1u.webp

2023-08-09 07:05:56 UTC

#EarlyWarning
In the next 27 years, on our current trajectory, everyone and everything alive on earth will first experience a world at an average global temperature of 15.3°C (+1.5°C above preindustrial average of 13.8°C) and then a world at 15.8°C (+2°C above preindustrial)
Both these states will unlock climate chaos only seen in movies.
Forget about 2100.
The clear and present danger is NOW for billions of people, animals and plants.
What we do TODAY about turning off the emissions tap that is pouring GHG’s into the atmosphere is going to determine if we can buy sufficient time to adapt or not.
#ClimateCrisis https://cdn.nostr.build/i/d525fd8371acc5ab62e70348a8be028f53b032872eebab3f77116de99738c3cd.jpg

2023-08-04 02:31:23 UTC

Pay attention.
Heatwaves in winter are absolutely not normal.
Instrument readings:
CO2 atmospheric concentration 423.68 ppm
CH4 atmospheric concentration 1920.74 ppb
15.08°C average global temperature
(+1.28°C above preindustrial average of 13.8°C)
+21°C Ocean temperature (60S-60N)
Pictured 2m temperature anomaly across South America Aug 3 to Aug 6, 2023. https://cdn.nostr.build/i/58d70df688fbd95469cdf24fa39443a564b139f5ddc8f2414f2e840a79441f86.jpg

2023-08-02 02:33:57 UTC

Whether you use the HadCRUT5 or ERA5 data sets one thing is crystal clear we are very close to making 15.3°C (that is +1.5°C above the preindustrial average of 13.8°C) the new global average temperature.
There are horrors that await this shift.
Speaking of impacts at the current 15.03°C (+1.28°C above preindustrial) Prof Bob Watson said, referring to impacts at the poles: “I am very concerned. None of the observed changes so far (with a 1.2C temperature rise) are surprising. But they are more severe than we predicted 20 years ago, and more severe than the predictions of five years ago. We probably underestimated the consequences.”
With each incremental increase we move more and more of life on earth beyond adaptation limits.
We are in an emergency.
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy
https://www.threads.net/@climatehawkins/post/CvXGGtENe9T/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

2023-07-30 16:06:37 UTC

Important comment from Susanna Ditlevsen co-author of the now famous study on the AMOC collapse possibility.
Her comments (pictured)
(Source: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7090635497059803136)
https://void.cat/d/Ds6zPwaiHQZX8qM4pGi23d.webp

2023-07-29 05:59:18 UTC

Very sobering from Prof. Bob Watson as the impacts mount at +1.28°C of warming.
Quote source: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/25/frightens-climate-crisis-do-not-know-how-bad-wildfires-greece
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy https://cdn.nostr.build/i/9fd89d8b1b471e635d2a28305a765619971ae9bd771c4d8e3198a9e8a60797f4.jpg

2023-07-26 06:54:48 UTC

The #Mediterranean is on fire at the moment.
#Heatwaves #Europe
Data: http://www.ceam.es/ceamet/SST/SST-trend.html https://cdn.nostr.build/i/39b35a10836b3517fed033c9fbce30f448e79b500e241155d9ef52201b891bb4.jpg https://cdn.nostr.build/i/8cea57703b1782a8958ec2673d39169d25f37204db1d01f116346902e8e2f258.jpg

2023-07-24 11:39:29 UTC

⚠️ Early Warning
“The ongoing scorching heatwave across Europe and Turkey’s S and SE parts will finish with a deep upper wave emerging from the west, producing a major severe weather event across the Alpine region, northern Mediterranean, and central Balkan countries.”
#Europe #Heatwave #Storms
https://www.severe-weather.eu/weather-forecast/severe-weather-forecast-outlook-europe-july-24th-and-25th-2023-mk/

2023-07-22 18:24:59 UTC

Tourism on a heating planet.
The economic impact of where we are headed is coming into focus and this at 1.28°C of warming.
Heatwaves, fires & drought do not go hand in hand with having a relaxing summer holiday.
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves #WildFires
https://mapstodon.space/@zoom_earth/110758913353419053

2023-07-21 02:45:48 UTC

The truth is we are completely and utterly unprepared for a world at +1.5°C
We can hardly cope with the current +1.28°C
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/20/climate/how-extreme-heat-affects-workers-and-the-economy.html

2023-07-10 16:00:37 UTC

#Japan experiencing some extreme precipitation in the southeast.
Latest reporting with video visuals here https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/one-killed-heavy-rain-triggers-landslides-japan-2023-07-09/
⚠️ JMA issues warning for continued heavy downpours overnight and tomorrow for the same area. http://nostr.build/i/0df068e494d22dfdaef9fdeb8822b968a94402245f7633a1abf6f1776a583120.jpg

2023-07-10 14:17:44 UTC

World Meteorological Organization hosts special news briefing to address records in land and ocean temperatures.
Stay informed as the climate crisis continues to evolve.
Recording of live press briefing here: https://media.un.org/en/asset/k11/k11r4ljniw
Media release here: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/preliminary-data-shows-hottest-few-days-record-sea-surface-temperatures-unprecedented
#ClimateCrisis #ElNino #OceanHeating

2023-07-09 06:37:19 UTC

There is absolutely no way to “negotiate” with the physics of our dumping 39 Gt CO2 into the atmosphere per year.
This behaviour results in accelerating climate change as can be witnessed by the rise in the global average temperature to +1.27°C above pre industrial averages.
If we continue to treat earths atmosphere as a CO2 sewer we will all but ensure catastrophic climate change within the next 70 years.
We understand the physics. As a result we also understand what we need to do to avert catastrophe.
Here it is: We need to go from emitting 39 Gt CO2 per year to 19 Gt CO2 by 2030.
This means we need to look at EVERY emission source and avoid it or shift to non-carbon emitting energy sources.
If your business burns fossil fuels to generate revenue it would be prudent for the long term survival of your business to decouple revenue generation from the need to burn fossil fuels as a matter of urgency.
If you don’t do this voluntarily be assured that you will be forced to do so in the near future.
Voluntary transition is WAY less painful than forced transition as Air France-KLM just discovered.
Court ruling:
“𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘧𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘣𝘺 𝘢𝘪𝘳𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘴𝘶𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘥𝘢𝘮𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘢𝘴 𝘢 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘮𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘦𝘴 𝘸𝘢𝘴 𝘯𝘰 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘢𝘵 𝘢 𝘥𝘪𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/netherlands-can-cap-schiphol-flights-dutch-appeal-court-rules-2023-07-07/
Which will it be?
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis #Leadership

2023-07-08 04:34:08 UTC

We are at +1.27°C of warming. And CO2 atmospheric concentrations at at 424.68 ppm (June)
The resulting extreme weather events are now so common they hardly make the news anymore.
This is #Zaragoza, #Spain, on Thursday July 6th after an extreme precipitation event caused a flash flood trapping people in their cars as roads turned into raging rivers.
We are in a climate emergency.
(Source: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1788601/car-drivers-cling-to-roofs-flash-flood-spain)
#ClimateCrisis https://nostr.build/av/38ae8f994532e38e4ee5ca955d2af930873e41978bf1f1e47ac00071f0fec3b7.mov

2023-07-07 05:08:54 UTC

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About 13 https://nostr.build/i/305aae5be6ec39a8ed9f8e1eacd5c3320712a3e882262517804ca12275ea4239.jpg

2023-07-06 06:21:00 UTC

What https://nostr.build/i/6674da6ec3d58ec9f13137e213f2f4312b32a31142047fcaf6e884e86f4cd3b0.jpg

2023-07-05 09:16:12 UTC

Image Context.
2016 & 2020 were tied the hottest years on record.
On Aug 14, 2016 a daily global average 2m air temperature record was set at 16.92°C
On July 11, 2020 the highest average was 16.82°C
On Mon July 3, 2023 we broke the 2016 record with a new high of 17.01°C
Yesterday, Tuesday July 4, 2023👇🏻
🧪 https://nostr.build/i/e9597623e3c0b195b67da7f298369354c2c14e1a104ace7c5e3cbe03035cd7a2.jpg

2023-07-04 13:46:41 UTC

Yesterday we broke a record.
We recorded an average global temperature of +17.01ºC for the first time since instrumental records began.
With another month or so of heating to go before it turns down again 2023 may become the warmest year on record, beating out 2016.
https://void.cat/d/M7zyBX1D8osk8bMTurJMs2.webp

2023-07-04 12:33:08 UTC

The impacts of the #climatecrisis are being felt in #China there is no doubt about that:
"China will face multiple natural disasters in July, including floods, severe convection weather, typhoons and high temperatures, authorities warned."
https://english.news.cn/20230703/3dca8e89626d4c0e82556224ad37bee4/c.html

2023-07-04 03:17:14 UTC

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So the same as Twitter basically

2023-07-04 03:15:29 UTC

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So basically like Twitter https://nostr.build/i/cee4b23b4673a41cfa77db72c3cfe80822248e211ec192bbe938e9c1e4a2f3c5.jpg

2023-07-04 03:14:09 UTC

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So basically the same as Twitter https://nostr.build/i/cee4b23b4673a41cfa77db72c3cfe80822248e211ec192bbe938e9c1e4a2f3c5.jpg

2023-07-01 05:53:32 UTC

The heating ocean and melting ice, a hallmark of the evolving climate crisis, are causing seas to rise. (Global average sea level has risen 21–24 centimeters since 1880. In 2021, global sea level set a new record high—97 mm (3.8 inches) above 1993 levels.)
There are many places where retreat is the becoming the only option, one of these places is Khun Samut Chin, just outside of Bangkok.
Here 1.1km to 2km of land has already been swallowed by the sea.
More here: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/01/just-four-pupils-left-how-the-sea-rose-up-on-a-thai-village
#ClimateCrisis #SeaLevelRise #Thailand https://nostr.build/i/23229c898154c72275f3d930043290b346545937d9fe8f13c6c96fcf3886f105.jpg https://nostr.build/i/0707a421842b18f83fd77d3649f34ea71f4d3452fb70dc94e6beadcaa5be2a09.webp

2023-06-28 06:27:35 UTC

How do we know that the #ElNino phase has arrived?
We use our instruments:
“Satellite- and ocean-based measurements of sea surface temperature are one way to detect the arrival of El Niño. Its signature also shows up in satellite measurements of sea surface height, which rises as ocean temperatures warm up. That’s because warmer water expands to fill more volume, while cooler water contracts.
The [image] depicts sea surface height anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean as observed from June 1–10, 2023. Shades of blue indicate sea levels that were lower than average; normal sea level conditions appear white; and reds indicate areas where the ocean stood higher than normal.”
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151481/el-nino-returns

2023-06-26 19:44:10 UTC

The heat has already “lasted 20 days”
https://news.yahoo.com/mexico-power-grid-alert-weeks-170347946.html
#Mexico #Heatwave

2023-06-25 04:50:33 UTC

The Texas heatwave as observed by NASA satellites.
CO2 424 ppm
+1.27°C above preindustrial
Source: https://eyes.nasa.gov/apps/earth/#/vitalsign?vitalsign=air_temperature&altid=0&animating=f&start=&end=#heatwave
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwave #Texas https://nostr.build/i/1dc0823c12d6f968898c42a3172505ed665d2e4dfdc157268a7d95bf93892ff9.jpg

2023-06-24 15:39:51 UTC

More than 40 million people in the US are currently under a heat alert and on some places the infrastructure is beginning to fail.
#Texas #Heatwave
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/24/texas-heatwave-high-temperatures-power

2023-06-24 08:39:28 UTC

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You should check out this guys feed they are very much on the ground
https://infosec.exchange/@kevinrothrock

2023-06-23 14:50:27 UTC

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Hey that looks like a tracker he is wearing?

2023-06-23 08:23:52 UTC

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China as a whole is under *severe* heat strain!
41.8 Tanghekouzhen
41.2 Huairou
41.1 Zhaitang
40.6 Miyun
34.4 Foye Peak
41.8 Dagang
41.5 Tianjin
41.1 Sigi
40.9 Wu Qing
41.6 Beichen
41.4 Langfang
40.8 Gu'an
40.2 Zunhua
41.3 Wudi
40.8 Yang Xin
39.2 Jimo
41.7 Shandong
41.4 Xianghe
40.4 Tamada

2023-06-23 06:22:03 UTC

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You will notice in the text it makes reference to “Japan” this is a browser translation error. Here is the original text from the website:
市气象台2023年6月23日07时00分升级发布高温红色预警信号：预计，6月23日至25日本市高温天气仍将持续，大部分地区最高气温可达37～40℃，请注意防范。（预警信息来源：国家预警信息发布中心

2023-06-23 06:19:15 UTC

Today the Beijing Meteorological Bureau upgraded the city to a level red warning, the highest heatwave warning, as temperatures soared to just above 41°C
Beijing is home to 22 million people, who were urged to take emergency measures to prevent heatstroke. Stop outdoor work in the open air. Take protective measures for the elderly, the weak, the sick and the young and pay special attention to fire prevention.
Source: https://weather.cma.cn/web/alarm/11000041600000_20230623070925.html
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwave #Beijing https://nostr.build/i/1d399cfd5a3472a2ad8993a06ccfc219c9800659e8bef3d2c28a3446c0c46806.jpg

2023-06-22 06:46:34 UTC

⚠️ Early Warning — Dangerous Wet Bulb Temperatures forecast for parts of Texas on Friday.
Reminder: The actual max wet-bulb temp is lower than 35°C — about 31°C wet-bulb or 87°F at 100% humidity — even for young, healthy individuals. For older populations, who are more vulnerable to heat, it’s likely even lower. (See https://journals.physiology.org/doi/full/10.1152/japplphysiol.00738.2021)
Wet-bulb advisory: https://digital.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/?zoom=4&lat=37&lon=-96.5&layers=F000BTTTFTT&region=0&element=8&mxmz=false&barbs=false&subl=TFFFFF&units=english&wunits=nautical&coords=latlon&tunits=localt
#WetBulbTemperature #Texas #Heatwave #ClimateCrisis https://nostr.build/i/a3a8a89c067d523ee12e655f1e25cdfbd30622d094da96eacdda5dce3dd0de61.jpg

2023-06-21 08:06:49 UTC

South Africa has warmed +1.6ºC since 1881 and we are are on course to reach +4.4ºC of heating by 2100.
#ClimateLiteracy #ShowYourStripes #SouthAfrica
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/a0fd1b51-d628-485e-b451-492727c78c9d.png

2023-06-21 05:36:31 UTC

Mexico is going through some things.
#Heatwave #note1w90…9x6z

2023-06-20 20:10:57 UTC

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Of course, it is at the top end compared to the other models but still, we keep skating closer and closer to chaos. https://nostr.build/i/9575523d81c21489a25142cfa5b00cbbef01cc5ee6e616195fda275fb9a2fc74.jpg

2023-06-19 15:43:13 UTC

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https://nostr.build/i/75de9ea84e5d46f865d3711825d6b0f16636e955c23eb70b54ba26063fb4cee6.jpg

2023-06-19 15:40:07 UTC

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That is really interesting. This zooming into Croatia (2020 data)

2023-06-19 12:36:40 UTC

Did you know?
(Read more in the just released “State of the Climate in Europe 2022” https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=11659)
#ClimateLiteracy #Europe https://nostr.build/i/2b6f1822a773f1386a7ed19901594c80e609ab87867697826b65f8499aa2f5de.jpg

2023-06-18 17:46:40 UTC

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Image credit: Figure 3.2, Pg 38, Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf

2023-06-18 16:15:18 UTC

From two countries in the Heat-Humidity risk zone:
Nepal struggles with blistering heatwave https://www.dw.com/en/nepal-struggles-with-blistering-heat-wave/a-65941491
Dozens die as northern India swelters under heatwave https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/17/dozens-die-as-northern-india-swelters-under-heatwave
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves #India #Nepal https://nostr.build/i/2e3fee30b05422a5401b2b430a3884ecea352afc3040ad6e603878bcf81e57df.jpg

2023-06-18 08:27:44 UTC

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So much work has been done on the risk profiles of different places. For example check out the extensive reporting here https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Annex-I.pdf
Of course, in some places the impacts are arriving faster but this gives a good framework if adaptation is a priority, which it should be of course.

2023-06-18 08:04:04 UTC

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Sure. There is more detail on the interplay here
https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3143/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect/

2023-06-18 02:58:46 UTC

For every °C that Earth’s atmospheric temperature rises, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere can increase by about 7%. The more water vapor that air contains, the more energy it holds, fuelling intense storms, particularly over land resulting in more extreme weather events.
Pics from Citrusdal in the Western Cape, South Africa showing severe storm damage resulting in millions of rands in infrastructure damage and crop loses.
The only access road to the town has been washed away and essential supplies for the 5,000 residents is being airlifted.
CO2 concentrations 424 ppm
+1.27°C above preindustrial average
In the near term (2021-2040) the people and animals most at risk of extreme weather events are those who exist:
1) Close to their upper thermal limits
2) Along coastlines
3) Near ice or seasonal rivers
#ClimateLiteracy #EarlyWarnings #ExtremeWeather #Citrusdal #SouthAfrica https://nostr.build/i/33c60f8f21988f8b5f89f9bcfa7a6dfaeb139156664df7583af6e5ae16983437.jpg https://nostr.build/i/53c2282da8b2147dcdfc49699d2d77c5f0ca1ec8e5bdf890441f51724585f1b6.jpg https://nostr.build/i/09853af197c95bb9a5f431e22fbaf2fdae5e649e1663ea9aeb5fd98cf575ef58.jpg https://nostr.build/i/b5b12aaa2f1b3184db644dc0c41186bbd1b17c1af6015fcd7a693f7f28974924.jpg

2023-06-16 03:43:53 UTC

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This is wild

2023-06-15 15:57:04 UTC

⚠️ Early Warning
There is some serious heat building in north east China with a forecast high of 40ºC in Beijing for Friday June 16
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/1e7ef818-b51b-4fcd-aeae-edf3eb1f27cc.png

2023-06-14 17:26:54 UTC

A timeline cleanse.
This majestic crowned eagle, Africa’s most powerful, was released just a short distance from where are after a dramatic rescue a few days ago.
These eagles are near threatened as a result of habitat loss, mainly forests.
Hamba kahle special friend. https://nostr.build/i/e541b7d553984c6adf1fba40a6a434209b1a9aed70ea08dad9fcdad87417209a.jpg

2023-06-14 01:39:32 UTC

Early Warning
We are in brand new territory:
“When you have an El Niño occurring on top of the long-term warming trend, it’s like a double whammy.”—Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist at The Nature Conservancy.
Any business that does not, as a matter of urgency, become climate literate, is going to experience considerable pain.
“Dartmouth scientists estimated that the 1997-1998 El Niño led to $5.7 trillion in lost gross domestic product the following five years. Their modeling estimates that by the end of this century, El Niños will have blocked some $84 trillion in GDP.”
Climate disruption is real and is coming at us at break neck speed.
How ready are you?
#futureofwork #disruption #climateliteracy
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-el-nino-climate-change-extreme-weather/

2023-06-13 18:44:11 UTC

This is great piece by Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf on 🐦) on the current ocean heat phenomenon
https://www.wfla.com/weather/climate-classroom/spike-in-ocean-heat-stuns-scientists-have-we-breached-a-climate-tipping-point/
#ClimateLiteracy #OceanHeat #ElNino

2023-06-13 16:12:01 UTC

🌡️ UK Heat-Health Alert
As of today Tuesday 13 June, the Heat-Health Alerts issued by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the Met Office have been extended until 9am on Monday 19 June.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/heat-health-alerts-issued-by-ukhsa-and-the-met-office
#ClimateCrisis #HeatAlert #Heatwave

2023-06-12 18:55:02 UTC

🌀#Biparjoy is gearing up to be a major incident and evacuations underway as the storm approaches.
Detailed reporting here: https://www.dawn.com/news/1759332

2023-06-12 05:10:20 UTC

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#Biparjoy

2023-06-12 04:35:17 UTC

Early warnings:
The #India Meteorological Department issues storm and wind track for tropical cyclone #Biparjpy with landfall expected near Jakhau Port, Gujarat around noon on Thursday June 15 https://nostr.build/i/85786d55a0e7549dc9198000593aa9decdf17bccad22420288737c03f794dd61.jpg

2023-06-11 07:58:36 UTC

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Hey isn’t this at Rinkai Park?

2023-06-11 05:52:03 UTC

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This is correct.
We have just come out of a longer than normal cooler La Niña period.
We are now moving into the warmer El Niño phase. The last El Niño event we had was in 2015/16 which was described as a “super El Niño” as a result of the heat it created.
Btw here is how Sea Surface Temperatures are measured https://argo.ucsd.edu
The Argo floats are currently collecting about 12,000 data profiles each month (400 a day).

2023-06-11 04:43:42 UTC

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Why the concern with current sea surface temperatures?
”Just the top few metres of our oceans store as much energy as the entirety of our atmosphere. I'm very concerned for later this year into 2024.”—Dr Thomas Smith
(https://twitter.com/DrTELS/status/1650562388377174020)

2023-06-11 04:42:21 UTC

Climate Literacy:
During an El Niño event, the trade winds that normally blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific weaken or even reverse direction³⁵.
This causes the warm surface waters that are usually found in the western Pacific along the coasts of Ecuador/Peru/Chile to spread eastward along the equator¹³⁵. As a result, the ocean heat that is normally stored in the western Pacific is released to the atmosphere in the central and eastern Pacific²⁴. This affects the global weather patterns and climate¹²³⁵.
Sources:
(1) El Niño: Pacific Wind and Current Changes Bring Warm, Wild Weather. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/ElNino.
(2) What are El Niño and La Niña, and how do they change the weather?. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64192508.
(3) El Niño - National Geographic Society. https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/el-nino/.
(4) El Niño and Extreme Ocean Heat Are About to Clash for the 2023 .... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/el-nino-and-extreme-ocean-heat-are-about-to-clash-for-the-2023-hurricane-season/.
(5) El Niño and La Niña: Frequently asked questions. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-frequently-asked-questions. https://nostr.build/i/a3af5d222cf6216d2ce84cd3b82e4dee1a2c372f961cd9f4a92dfbed35132639.jpg

2023-06-10 06:20:33 UTC

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Data sources:
1) Previous 1.5° anomaly breaches: https://nitter.moomoo.me/hausfath/status/1667206122594525184#m
2) OP Graphic: https://nitter.moomoo.me/EliotJacobson/status/1667165187894558721#m

2023-06-10 06:19:57 UTC

#ClimateLiteracy: The 1.5° limit applies to the average temperature over a year, and passing it would mean that the average will have been sustained for several years.
That said, we have crossed the 1.5°C anomaly on hundreds of individual days, after which it has fallen back below 1.5°
Most of these days occurred in 2016 & 2020.
Now as the heat begins to load up as a result of the maturing El Niño we will see many individual days again cross 1.5°
For example look at this. In 2023 we breached 1.5° on March 6-11 and again yesterday (June 9th) https://nostr.build/i/d7c43f760059d1c6f1f08af053c66757400bad01bba349f4db7203b569967fca.jpg

2023-06-08 15:22:02 UTC

Early Warning
NOAA has announced the start of the 2023/24 #ElNino
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
#ClimateLiteracy https://nostr.build/i/699b1ca455a8431813b48f5c5e876d3dae25f2e380fedafbbfb2cee9908d9a5b.jpg

2023-06-07 06:47:59 UTC

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I must tell you that I actually made a decision not to travel to events to speak anymore 😅 - I have lost some gigs as a result but the 20/21 experience have made events more open to hybrid scenarios.
On screen with a camera facing the audience and a person acting as a connector in the venue has been working for me.
It’s still surreal to be able to be on screen at two separate events in two different countries on the same day considering that was impossible before!

2023-06-06 05:53:35 UTC

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You will find this interview interesting as it provides some insight into their AI approach and philosophy.
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2020/08/apple-explains-how-it-uses-machine-learning-across-ios-and-soon-macos/

2023-06-05 16:22:58 UTC

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Case in point. If this is not somehow solved, this here will remain a niche network.
If you compare the new arrivals feed here to BlueSky for example it literally is like night and day. https://nostr.build/i/3968763ad42546c445d9d5aef8dfab977b32e5930349c0b24957eb983bc15ffc.jpg

2023-06-05 05:33:57 UTC

How is your country doing when it comes to matching its current emission reduction policies to its 2030 pledges?
Here is our situation in #SouthAfrica
Check your country here: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65754296
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy #Emissions https://nostr.build/i/b353874866b7bf51a17bedaa0e03f10deaa27c1133e73366da1d1996a5ba0f2f.jpg

2023-06-03 05:01:39 UTC

Prediction: The way of life in May places is going to be *severely* disrupted as we continue our heating trajectory.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/06/02/heat-school-closings-northeast-climate/
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves

2023-06-01 18:05:37 UTC

Temperature records tumbled in #Canada yesterday
https://nitter.moomoo.me/Pat_wx/status/1664036214003859459#m

2023-06-01 04:43:26 UTC

As #ClimateChaos becomes a reality in many places we need robust #EarlyWarningSystems in place to help people stay safe.
You HAVE to make an effort to understand what is projected for the area you are in and begin a conversation about what actions to take as a result.
Here is the Four-Pillar Framework the WMO is working on and serves as an excellent template for your community and family.
Source: https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/overview-of-early-warnings-all-executive-action-plan-2023%E2%80%932027
#ClimateLiteracy #Adaptation https://nostr.build/i/339169b76a3b847b0590a2777f61c6e65de52a72dd0a527390f63ed6c5a58f3e.jpg

2023-05-29 15:33:42 UTC

Cryosphere Early Warning
- Reference glaciers (for which we have long-term observations) experienced an average thickness change of over −1.3 metres between October 2021 and October 2022. This loss is much larger than the average of the last decade. The cumulative thickness loss since 1970 amounts to almost 30 m.
- The European Alps smashed records for glacier melt due to a combination of little winter snow. In Switzerland, 6% of the glacier ice volume was lost between 2021 and 2022 – and one third between 2001 and 2022.
- The Greenland Ice Sheet ended with a negative total mass balance for the 26th year in a row.
- Sea ice in Antarctica dropped to 1.92 million km2 on February 25, 2022, the lowest level on record and almost 1 million km2 below the long-term (1991-2020) mean.
- Arctic sea ice in September at the end of the summer melt tied for the 11th lowest monthly minimum ice extent in the satellite record.
- Global mean sea level reaching a new record high for the satellite altimeter record (1993-2022). The rate of global mean sea level rise has doubled between the first decade of the satellite record.
Source: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/rapid-changes-cryosphere-demand-urgent-coordinated-action

2023-05-29 06:01:22 UTC

This story illustrates our general inability to recognise #climaterisk and adapt: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65723447
Sherpas: "[Base Camp] has been there for the past 70 years, why should they move it now? And even if they wanted to, where is the study on a viable alternative?"
Reality: “Mountaineers and officials say streams have now begun to flow right from the middle of the base camp and crevasses are widening dangerously and very quickly.”

2023-05-27 05:57:49 UTC

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There was that element obviously but both these guys actually support DeSantis.
Here is Musk in 2022 and Sacks has donated to the DeSantis campaign.
I think that Sapce had a lot to do with this affiliation. https://nostr.build/i/e635737d19c10137760b19cbd7a71c26b11d917581178f69bc398b1404bd9692.jpg

2023-05-27 05:30:20 UTC

It’s good to see this topic being researched. Last year during the intense heat wave in #India they had this exact experience.
Heat wave + dramatic increase in air conditioner use = major strain on grid = large area blackouts = vulnerability to heatstroke
How Blackouts during Heat Waves Amplify Mortality and Morbidity Risk: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.2c09588
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves

2023-05-26 08:06:06 UTC

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This data was meticulously recorded by hand. For example there were 65,000 sheets of paper containing hand-written measurements of rainfall taken all across the UK & Ireland before 1960.
These have now been digitised!
See this incredible story here as told by Ed Hawkins who was involved in this process:
https://fediscience.org/@ed_hawkins/109879659504337590 https://nostr.build/i/e344bd572928ed6f31d4419b02d3d7a641ba32b9a8ca8500899eb413eac0d98a.jpg

2023-05-26 07:46:23 UTC

These 291 weather stations have been collecting a wide range of weather data, including temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed and direction, and solar radiation for at least 100 years.
The commitment to keep these running form the backbone of our ability to monitor climate change.
Source: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/centennial-weather-stations-are-vital-climate-monitoring
#ClimateLiteracy #Instruments #ClimateChange https://nostr.build/i/48d731525c30cd76d3aac484edaab6ece61fc50c26105a4ae96187c0d42cd75b.jpg

2023-05-26 05:27:58 UTC

Every consumption choice we make should have these numbers as the decision guide.
“Will this choice add to these numbers?”
🌡️ +1.27°C (above pre-industrial)
- CO2 data: https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/
- GHG data: https://worldemissions.io
#Climatiteracy #Leadership https://nostr.build/i/15d7417f83eff91158f1b15f3115dcd507f48623c17405299e1a7cb644f6ba90.jpg

2023-05-25 14:33:50 UTC

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This may be of interest to anyone looking at this. (They entered the chat in this thread)
https://floss.social/@silmathoron/110269191606733426

2023-05-23 09:47:17 UTC

We *have* to talk about adaptation as a result of the warming we are *already* committed to.
But we need to understand that we are already brushing up against the limits of adaptation. (See pic)
Which is why we also *have* to talk about mitigation because if we don't slam the brakes on emissions our ability to adapt at all will fade into the rearview mirror.
Graphic source material: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy #Adaptation #Mitigation https://nostr.build/i/6cdc50e5a9109ed408c7ac2aa526d8788158cf4447630af8e7145738a7672e33.jpg

2023-05-23 06:43:25 UTC

Latest risk assessment for our rapidly heating world:
At 3.6 - 4.4°C — 4.5 billion people will be “outside of [the] historical climate niche posing an existential risk” to them
At 2.7°C — 3 billion people
“It exposes almost the entire area of some countries (eg, Burkina Faso, Mali) to unprecedented heat, including some Small Island Developing States (eg. Aruba, Netherlands Antilles)—a group with members already facing an existential risk from sea-level rise.”
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01132-6#Fig5
#ClimateCrisis

2023-05-22 06:22:31 UTC

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US data source:
https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions

2023-05-22 06:19:38 UTC

Every country will have its own emissions profile. This is the US.
There is SO much we can do RIGHT NOW to change these numbers! For example, let’s look at what we can do to slash transportation emissions:
🚶‍♀️Walk to work if you can
🚲 Cycle to work if you can
🚝 Use public transport
🚙 Use an EV if you can
🏡 Work from home 3 days per week
✈️ Meet/Present online instead of flying
May 20th 2023:
CO2 423.58 ppm
Global temp. +1.27°C
#futureofwork #climateliteracy #mitigation #leadership https://nostr.build/i/3150f7326a8dc67afe9a70539caca8dd60f999872ddfe862320c504f4859cfd1.jpg

2023-05-22 04:40:59 UTC

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I think part of answering what Nostr’s pull could be is finding a way to decouple its strong perceived connection to Bitcoin.
There many many people that will avoid it a all costs because of that.
Both BlueSky and Mastodon are way more diverse which makes it more appealing for people to join.
Here seems very niche. You can see this when looking at the Nostr firehose vs the BlueSky firehose for example.
I am not sure if changing this perception is even possible.

2023-05-21 07:40:41 UTC

This escalated rather quickly
#Italy #floods
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/21/italy-over-36000-people-displaced-by-floods-as-giorgia-meloni-departs-g7-summit-early

2023-05-21 07:28:46 UTC

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So when you long press on a photo to save it you onto the phone you use the “save to photos” option?
I am just trying to understand how it’s getting into the downloads folder?

2023-05-19 06:14:18 UTC

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#[3] … 😂
“Scissors cuts paper, paper covers rock, rock crushes lizard, lizard poisons Spock, Spock smashes scissors, scissors decapitates lizard, lizard eats paper, paper disproves Spock, Spock vaporizes rock, and as it always has, rock crushes scissors.”—Sheldon

2023-05-18 14:36:38 UTC

#Japan is also having its share of the Asian April/May temperature records. https://nostr.build/i/b87959c6630c33ec3b0475f7cdf0d5763b706174fa267abf16861056b78e0456.jpg

2023-05-17 04:49:29 UTC

One aspect of #CimateLiteracy is understanding what to expect in the area you live as we continue to heat and then make contingency plans for adaptation.
The WMO is advocating for an early warning system and some of the recently launched satellites will go a long way in helping with this system.
Right now parts of Asia and India in particular and Canada have been hit by early heatwaves that are putting large numbers of vulnerable people at risk.
Our climate models are useful but events are moving faster than we anticipated which requires almost real-time warning systems to be dramatically improved and invested in.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/organizations-scramble-heat-wave-seniors-1.6844477

2023-05-16 17:38:45 UTC

May heat records tumble in Pacific Northwest and western #Canada
https://www.axios.com/2023/05/16/pacific-northwest-heat-canada-wildfires-climate

2023-05-16 08:55:38 UTC

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This is actually pretty cool. So a social "rss reader" is you will

2023-05-15 11:50:55 UTC

So they have started tracking #CycloneFabien in the South Indian Ocean.
General direction #Mauritius.
It would be super strange if it reached them as cyclone season ends March/mid-April but who knows in a world where ocean heat records are off the charts. Certainly has sufficient warm water to feed this storm. https://nostr.build/i/4513a3dd3c8b9457ebfab5c04b5c6a92f5af6d14ef5d0941d5abef2fcd26370e.jpg https://nostr.build/i/59923441b75c41966b0dc68fd7292debb3d7d889a545c99c866a63cf889315ba.jpg