Dr. Jeff
Dr. Jeff Ross

Random pleb, physician, and fund manager.

I generally don’t respond to DMs.

Public Key

npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l

NIP-05 Address

drjeff@nostrplebs.com

NIP-57 Address

jeffross@strike.me

Profile Code

nprofile1qqst0xtvrqlqxm0j0qpfgkuqh0wgkzl4judkvgdgd0e4d8pnyytlqlgpz4mhxue69uhhwmm59eek7anzd96zu6r0wd6qz8rhwden5te0dehhxarj9e3xjarrda5kuetj9eek7cmfv9kqt78ncu

Publishing to

wot.sovbit.host

nostr.bitcoiner.social

relay.damus.io

Author Public Key

npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l

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Last Notes

2024-09-30 21:02:38

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🧡

2024-09-30 20:54:22

There are givers and there are takers and you know who you are.

2024-09-30 20:46:12

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Must be something in the air today.

2024-09-30 20:16:10

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Getting no fries is inconceivable to the fiat brained.

2024-09-30 19:27:30

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🍻

2024-09-30 19:23:55

Complain less. Contribute more.

2024-09-30 18:38:33

MARK YOUR CALENDARS!!
As a simple pleb and civilian, I am greatly honored by the invitation to join the @npub1qkt…ms0r team as a guest for their YouTube livestream on Tuesday, October 1st, at 7pm ET!
Livestreams are way more fun when the live chat is busy… So plan on hopping on and adding your questions and comments. 🎉

2024-09-30 17:58:24

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Option B.

2024-09-30 17:18:20

Confession: I like real people. 🧡

2024-09-30 17:07:14

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Yup.
Month-end and quarter-end rebalancing is real.

2024-09-30 17:05:12

Peak fantasy world before reality hits hard.
History is cyclical.

2024-09-30 17:01:47

GM.
Orange is the new green.

2024-09-30 16:43:43

Sometimes it is appropriate to disrupt the status quo.

2024-09-30 16:37:49

FYI: Month-end and quarter-end rebalancing is real.

2024-09-30 16:26:28

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Ugh * its
I hate typos. 💩

2024-09-30 16:06:18

#NukeX and it’s “toxic nonsense.” 🔥
Welcome to #nostr, Tara!
#note1aqx…dtl3

2024-09-30 15:17:22

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Easiest in brokerage accounts and with bitcoin (or especially, “crypto”) proxies.
1. Short sell.
2. Buy puts.
3. Increase cash position.

2024-09-30 14:54:58

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🍻

2024-09-30 13:20:41

Thanks to @npub1s05…eyhe, every day I spend a little time contemplating:
- How can I further extract myself from the fiat system, of which I am deeply entrenched?
- How can I transfer more of my time, energy, and purchasing power into the #Bitcoin network?

2024-09-30 12:51:46

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🍻

2024-09-30 12:50:18

It really comes down to this simple decision matrix:
OPTION #1: If you would rather have life get continually more expensive while quality gets worse, then choose to save in dollars.
OPTION #2: If you would rather have life get continually more affordable while quality improves, then choose to save in #Bitcoin.

2024-09-29 14:20:07

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Buy puts. Initiate a short position. Increase relative cash position.

2024-09-29 14:03:51

Regarding purchasing power…
Don’t miss out on the upside of #bitcoin because you are fearful of the occasional downside volatility.
It’s amazing to me how many otherwise intelligent people pay this opportunity cost while using volatility as an excuse.
They are falling further and further behind.
Three practical tips if you find bitcoin’s volatility intolerable:
1. Small position size.
2. Don’t use leverage.
3. Hedge. It’s not that hard to do.

2024-09-29 11:07:04

This was a great conversation.
Thanks for having me on your show, @npub1r8l…x5dk! ⚡️
#note1kjf…gu5a

2024-09-28 19:25:35

A sly, roundabout way to devalue centralized social media.
#nostr

2024-09-26 21:44:00

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Haha… awesome! 🍻

2024-09-26 20:26:09

What if, thanks to the Federal Reserve, credit events have essentially been replaced by debasement events?
Can major, traditional credit events even occur in the age of central bank manipulation?
(H/t to Jordi Visser and Raoul Pal)

2024-09-26 15:58:01

Cheer up.
This time it’s for real.

2024-09-26 15:08:26

GM from Vailshire World Headquarters.
#Buckstr
#MuleDeerstr
#Rackstr
https://m.primal.net/LCoV.jpg

2024-09-25 14:23:41

A mandatory listen for my #nostr peeps.
Another banger by @npub1s05…eyhe with George Gammon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwSj0qpT3jw

2024-09-25 12:52:49

We are early.
Don’t lose hope and, importantly, keep building and supporting #Bitcoin circular economies.

2024-09-25 12:34:05

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Good analogy.

2024-09-25 12:30:52

If #Bitcoin is decentralized, secure, permissionless energy money…
then what is a share of a spot Bitcoin ETF?

2024-09-23 19:21:14

The #bitcoin carry trade (aka, “speculative arbitrage”) remains the trade of the decade.
It’s hiding in plain sight from the majority of Wall Street traders and investors.

2024-09-23 13:29:16

After a much-needed multi-month sabbatical from doing any podcast interviews, I'm looking forward to getting back into the action this week!
Upcoming interviews include an always lively, quarterly Mastermind discussion with @npub1s5y…6q7z, @npub1rtl…jtfs, and @npub1s9z…nszc; as well as one-on-one conversations with @npub1r8l…x5dk and @npub1gfx…escl.
The transition from Dr. Bullcrab to Dr. Bull is complete. 🐂 It's time to get the party started...
#macro
#Bitcoin
#investing

2024-09-21 18:28:25

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Love this.

2024-09-21 12:58:05

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That’s unfortunate. I hope you recover quickly and completely.

2024-09-20 23:18:00

More #bitcoin circular economies, please.

2024-09-20 19:54:58

For what it's worth (very little), I am having a good experience so far using @npub12vk…pugg on my phone.
Will recommend.
Onwards. #nostr

2024-09-20 19:47:56

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25 mg of diphenhydramine might be helpful if you're still itchy and swollen.

2024-09-20 19:13:32

STATUS: Bored with seemingly every topic.

2024-09-20 15:19:13

It's been a minute...
So I'm thinking of opening a new (and probably short) Doom and Gloom Room today over on Clubhouse, for anyone interested in:
- macro
- Bitcoin
- bonds
- stonks
- living well
- investing wisely
As usual, I am not selling anything and the room probably won't be very interesting.
Any interest?

2024-09-19 18:03:49

Using @npub12vk…pugg, I swapped out my old "recommended" relays for the following relays, and have already noticed a better experience.
Thanks @npub1utx…50e8!
However, my phone's @npub18m7…q955 client is now unresponsive. The new clients are not shown on Damus, and when I try to add them, it won't allow me to do so.
Any thoughts @npub1xts…kk5s?
Without my Damus client, I have lost the ability to zap as well.
#note1qpy…pds6

2024-09-19 12:28:25

Doom and gloomers still calling for an imminent major #recession in the US this morning.
Doom and gloomers still wrong.
#Normalization, not #recession.

2024-09-19 11:42:58

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Great post, Jeff! ⚡️

2024-09-18 22:38:21

I hate to be that guy... but I feel compelled to post that we are at (or very near) the point of saying goodbye to #58kforever forever.

2024-09-18 19:42:52

Incoming: Standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations offering rate of 4.8%.
Down from 5.3%, previously. Which has been the standing rate since August 2023.
Short term (~1-3 months) T-bill yields will quickly reflect this new rate.
#note19th…pzpz

2024-09-18 18:13:28

Prime rate is derived from the federal funds rate, which was lowered today from 5.25-5.5% to 4.75-5.0%.
HELOCs and other short term lending rates are based, in part, off of the prime rate.
Hopefully, many Americans who are getting beaten down by such high interest rates will feel some relief in the coming months... in the form of lower interest rate payments.

2024-09-18 18:02:09

BREAKING: 50 bps it is.
"In light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent."
#note1hd9…ly3y

2024-09-18 14:45:47

GM #nostr. ☕️ https://image.nostr.build/048d74de3ae1ffae4bc9b83b6160a28d586752a56e4658c0845035436fd2903d.jpg

2024-09-18 13:41:55

What I'm watching... 👀
The Federal Funds Effective Rate (FFER) has been set at 5.33% since August 2023.
It will almost certainly be lower by the end of the day.
The FFER heavily influences short-term T-bill rates, as well as the amount and flow of money utilizing Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements... which is a significant component of US Net Liquidity.
#macro
https://m.primal.net/Ktpd.png

2024-09-18 12:54:53

On the morning of (an unusually pivotal) #FOMC meeting, the CME futures market is predicting a 65% chance of a 50 bps cut of the federal funds rate, and a 35% chance of a 25 bps rate cut.
MORE IMPORTANT TO ME as a fund manager is what the FOMC minutes and Jerome Powell have to say (definitively) about the Fed's balance sheet going forward.
Will #QE begin in earnest? Or will the Fed wait for turmoil in the bond markets before ending "not-QT"?
In other words, will a new wave of liquidity begin to flow from the US government into the private sector? If so, at what rate?
Because we have non-free, centrally-manipulated markets, I will be watching today's events with great interest.
🍿 #macro
https://m.primal.net/KtoA.png

2024-09-13 22:29:23

My favorite page on the StLouisFed .org (FRED) site:
"Buying eggs with bitcoins."
Since they started keeping track in January 2015 through August 2024, the price of a dozen eggs:
- In US dollars: Up +51.7%, from $2.11 to $3.20.
https://m.primal.net/KpFe.png
- In #bitcoin: Down -99.4%, from 925,406 sats to 5,348 sats.
https://m.primal.net/KpFd.png
CONCLUSION: Life gets ever more expensive the longer you save in dollars (or any government fiat currency), while it generally gets (much) cheaper the longer you save in #bitcoin.
Inflationary fiat currency versus neutral inelastic energy money...
The choice is yours.
Source: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2022/06/buying-eggs-with-bitcoins/

2024-09-13 21:21:00

Back above $60k.
https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMzdpMDc4dGNiZjNxdG0wNXF1aWI3eWtycjZwYXNqcXVvdTFiNTluNCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/l0MYH8Q83CXvKzXyM/giphy.gif

2024-09-13 19:57:18

A fantastic discussion about Risk... by Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital, one of the great investors of our age.
Strong recommend.
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-video/education/how-to-think-about-risk-with-howard-marks

2024-09-13 15:51:36

These four examples are what we mean when we say:
#Bitcoin is repricing the world. 🌎
#note1cze…dc7c

2024-09-13 15:30:17

The Times They Are A-Changin' 😂
You love to see it.
X is now dead to me.
#nostr for the win. 🧡 ⚡
#note1pcn…t0tp

2024-09-13 14:58:23

What I'm watching... 👀
A five-year chart of popular global assets priced (appropriately) in neutral energy money (#bitcoin).
STATUS:
- $QQQ: Down -63%
- #Gold: Down -76%
- $DXY: Down -86%
- $TLT: Down -89%
OPINION: Choose your reserve asset(s) wisely.
https://m.primal.net/KopC.png

2024-09-13 13:47:09

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I love seeing fellow Bitcoiners teaching economics to the next generation. 🤝

2024-09-13 13:27:07

Debasing fiat currency + Time = Increasing income inequality
It's wild (to me) that almost no Economics professors or anyone in mainstream media seem to understand this.
#Bitcoin, of course, is the solution to this terrible problem.

2024-09-13 12:52:43

GM.
(Purchasing) Power to the People.
#Bitcoin

2024-09-12 16:40:49

A fantastic chart from Julian Bittel of #RealVision showing Global M2 (with a ten-week lead) and the price of #bitcoin in US dollar terms.
Like me, Julian believes that we are in the final days and weeks of accumulating bitcoin at relatively dirt-cheap prices.
You do you... but I think it is unwise to keep sitting on the sidelines during a global M2 bull market.
As you and I know, #Bitcoin is the Great Absorber of Liquidity.
https://m.primal.net/Kntr.png

2024-09-12 13:23:09

Our work is not yet finished.
Unfortunately, many poor souls still have glaring symptoms of Fiat Brain Disease.
Rx: #Bitcoin education. STAT.

2024-09-11 19:58:25

I don't take any investment or other financial "expert" seriously who doesn't take #Bitcoin seriously.
Missing this incredibly obvious secular trend continues to be the greatest opportunity cost in the entire history of humankind.
This is not hyperbole.

2024-09-11 14:56:21

Originally posted one week ago… even more true today.
I maintain that this is a fantastic time to stack sats on the cheap. #note1y9l…nknu

2024-09-11 13:44:44

“Everyone is wrong! I am right!”
“Sign up for my subscription service to find out why.”
- everyone, everywhere
Make it stop. 🤦🏻‍♂️

2024-09-11 13:23:27

So… who “won”? #note1ywx…7kne

2024-09-10 17:29:34

PREDICTIONS for tonight's presidential debate:
- #Democrats will think (strongly) that #Harris won
- #Republicans will think (strongly) that #Trump won
- #Independents will wonder (and complain about) why we have two such terrible options to choose from
- #Bitcoiners will ignore the noise, stack sats, and chill

2024-09-09 13:27:26

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His public journey has been fun to watch (and invest alongside). ⚡️

2024-09-07 12:57:56

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#Bitcoin is cool, but I believe we have a much higher (and eternal) calling to lives of faith and trust in God (and His Word).

2024-09-07 12:50:20

What a time to be alive!
Easy access to one of the great preachers of our Age.
Digging into God's Word... studying the Bible with Pastor John Piper.
Today's topic from DesiringGod.org:
"Do Ignorance and Unbelief Deserve Mercy?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cr11A0Z2FM

2024-09-07 12:13:48

Stressed out?
Here’s what Jesus says to you:
“Come to me, all who labor and are heavy laden, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you, and learn from me, for I am gentle and lowly in heart, and you will find rest for your souls. For my yoke is easy, and my burden is light.”
- Matthew 11:28-30 (ESV)

2024-09-06 22:35:47

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🍻

2024-09-06 22:25:04

Bored with it all.
Just #Bitcoin, chill, and have a great weekend with people IRL.

2024-09-06 22:16:12

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It's not reasonably possible to have a strong relationship with someone whom you don't know, no?
If you don't spend time reading the gospels and studying the words of Jesus and what he did, how he responded to people and arguments and detractors, etc., you'll never get an accurate picture of him.
Many people base their opinions of Jesus and Christianity based on goofy church experiences or chump "christians," who don't actually follow Jesus as the Christ.
So... if you're serious and not just trolling, I would recommend spending some serious time reading the books of Matthew, Mark, Luke, John, and Acts (to see how his followers responded after Jesus was crucified), and go from there.
Doing this completely altered my life.

2024-09-06 20:02:03

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I’m pretty much max bullish right now. Which only happens every few years or so.

2024-09-06 19:47:58

For your contemplation... 👀
Green vertical lines marking September 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 (current) on the monthly #bitcoin chart.
This is the point of the cycle where the bears are seemingly victorious and increasingly insufferable.
This is your last chance to bail before upside volatility (likely) begins to take hold in earnest.
It is your last chance to fill the next four years of your financial life with serious regret.
IF YOU DON'T SELL YOUR BITCOIN IN SEPTEMBER 2024, YOU MAY BE FORCED TO RIDE THE ROCKET HIGHER OVER THE COMING 12-15 MONTHS. 🚀
You have been warned.
https://m.primal.net/KhIC.png

2024-09-06 16:08:14

Sallys are crying. Chads are buying.

2024-09-06 12:46:55

The CME 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices are currently predicting a 56% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut at the Sept 18 FOMC meeting vs a 44% chance of a 50 bps rate cut.
In my mind, it's a coin flip (50/50).
Regardless, I don't think we are going to see a massive and prolonged series of rate decreases... primarily because we are not heading into a major #recession, as many doom and gloomers suggest.
This is ongoing #normalization after the unprecedented events of 2020-22, not a typical (or major) #recession.
Invest accordingly.
Cheers.
https://m.primal.net/KgmJ.png

2024-09-06 12:31:42

US Unemployment Rate
4.2% (actual) vs 4.2% (forecast) and 4.3% (prior)
#Normalization, not #recession
#macro

2024-09-06 01:24:01

3350

2024-09-05 23:00:03

It may take two or three decades, but #Bitcoin will inevitably defund and rightsize bloated and overbearing governments.
This sly roundabout way is the ultimate, world-changing, peaceful protest.

2024-09-05 21:07:57

This is why I finally quit X. #note1sfk…dvf9

2024-09-05 21:05:25

Zapping individual builders >> traditional angel investing
⚡️

2024-09-05 20:59:04

Be ungovernable. #note1m56…n7j3

2024-09-05 20:26:35

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https://image.nostr.build/3379899ca40011f437bfaa9e620365f030b3fa7bd9977987bd8b8c8b7efd82e4.jpg

2024-09-05 19:51:16

#58kforever #note17gl…ry8c

2024-09-05 17:58:54

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The equivalent ease of visibility, ease of access, and ease of use of Nests (or similar) as X Spaces or Clubhouse.
Regular conversations with fellow Nostriches would be invaluable (to me, at least).

2024-09-05 17:35:02

People who complain about waiting 30 minutes or so for a #Bitcoin base layer transaction to go through...
Have you ever waited for a new bank ACH or wire transfer to process?
https://m.primal.net/Kfkc.png

2024-09-05 16:50:54

It’s simple, really.
X is part of the crumbling fiat system.
I am trying to put the majority of my time, efforts, and purchasing power into building things that last, in order to create a better world for myself, my kids, and future generations.
I think that #nostr will play a major role in this better world… so here I am.
From Wall Street to #Bitcoin.
From centralized social media to #nostr. #note12t8…cuuf

2024-09-05 15:18:54

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The transition has already occurred and the bullish liquidity wave is already underway. Market participants just haven’t realized yet.
Take advantage of this reality.

2024-09-05 15:13:21

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To balance, suffering sucks for everyone, including Job, David, Paul, and Jesus.
But we are called to trust, worship, and fellowship with God through the suffering… not move away from—or be angry with—Him.

2024-09-05 14:41:13

"Though he slay me, I will hope in him."
- Job 13:15
"The LORD gave, and the LORD has taken away; blessed be the name of the LORD.”
- Job 1:21
SERMON: I would guess that less than 20% of American #Christians agree with (and live out) this #Biblical theology.

2024-09-05 13:44:39

Clearly, those who prioritize freedom will be early adopters of #Nostr.
Those who don’t will simply come later, en masse.
Very similar to early #Bitcoin adoption.

2024-09-05 12:57:18

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They will come.
It’s still (very) early days here on #nostr.

2024-09-05 12:36:46

Problems are everywhere.
Be a fixer, not a complainer.

2024-09-05 12:02:58

The most important #macro data... by far.
Global M2 -- the creation and flow of liquidity to the private sector -- is the primary driver of asset prices over time.
And #bitcoin -- as everyone should know by now -- is the Great Absorber of Liquidity.
Understand this and you will do well.
https://m.primal.net/KfQO.png

2024-09-05 00:10:50

Satoshi knew all along… #note1myw…zchr

2024-09-04 20:54:56

Indeed, algorithms are societal mind control.
I feel much less stressed out and angry since shutting down all of my prior social media accounts, other than #nostr.
I don’t miss them at all… not even a little bit.
Although unplugging from them (especially X) felt like breaking off a powerful addiction.
Shout out to @npub1sg6…f63m for the insight while I was still stuck in the matrix.
🧡

2024-09-04 19:56:32

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Old school tech for the win.