McCoy

Maple AI:
Lloyd’s of London – a quick primer
What it is: Lloyd’s is not a single insurance company. It is a marketplace where syndicates of capital‑backed underwriting firms (the “members”) come together to write insurance and reinsurance contracts.
How it makes money: Each syndicate earns underwriting profit (premiums received minus claims and expenses) and investment income on the pool of capital it holds to back those policies. The overall Lloyd’s market reports a combined result, but the underlying economics are the same for each syndicate.
Bottom‑line summary
Revenue streams:
Underwriting premiums for war, terrorism, political‑risk, and related liability policies.
Investment income on the capital that backs those policies.
Reinsurance commissions for ceding and assuming war‑risk layers.
Profit drivers in a conflict scenario:
Accurate pricing of low‑probability, high‑severity risk.
Layered structures that protect any single syndicate from catastrophic loss.
Diversified portfolio and strong investment returns that cushion underwriting volatility.
Risk of loss: If a war or terrorist event triggers claims that exceed the premiums collected on a given layer, that syndicate can incur a negative underwriting result. The market as a whole, however, tends to smooth such shocks because of its multi‑line diversification and the availability of excess reinsurance.
Overall: Lloyd’s does not “make money on wars” in the sense of directly benefiting from the conflict itself; rather, it offers a financial safety net that allows global trade, travel, and investment to continue despite geopolitical turmoil. When the premiums it charges exceed the claims it ends up paying (plus expenses), the difference—augmented by investment returns—constitutes profit for the syndicates and, by extension, for the Lloyd’s market.

2026-03-24 11:19:59 UTC

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This
#nevent1q…vawy

2026-03-22 00:00:42 UTC

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Trump is a fraud. Revealed by keeping score, referees, bombs, energy, math, and physics. *Alternative facts* comes crashing down.

2026-03-20 20:10:03 UTC

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jeusus
#nevent1q…c7fy

2026-03-20 16:08:16 UTC

Goin parabolic???!!???
Long way to go to reclaim 20-30oz
https://blossom.primal.net/0600076015b5b285b866809f6d513e3d2d640ea110c45e05767f0953ace8d500.png
https://blossom.primal.net/08d1ea56b7c24f0a3d3de6eed232d3d2d84f399eeb35b994537100f98187c224.jpg

2026-03-18 01:04:05 UTC

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confirmed

2026-03-17 22:18:55 UTC

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no, your just an asshole

2026-03-17 22:18:31 UTC

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make vs saving

2026-03-17 22:07:15 UTC

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💯 MMA Trump vs Komanei
this is the origin of sports: allows two competing groups to fight it out, projecting power without destroying each other

2026-03-17 21:44:54 UTC

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work through the bears, work through the bulls... work and stack

2026-03-17 21:40:59 UTC

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whats the point of you first 4 words? you must always be right....

2026-03-17 18:08:33 UTC

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whoa - is the a suprise?

2026-03-16 01:44:25 UTC

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good month, not so good 5 yr
https://blossom.primal.net/0a5559f8017f7f1fe066100eedabe73f135910e678dd241da92a1486c5df6486.png
https://blossom.primal.net/7c48a4d79a992c1c068b8e33f0f2575e0bb6545484a5bb098cf9704c4172f309.png

2026-03-15 20:18:04 UTC

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Bitcoin - Nostr - WOT could solve this.
Alternatively, show up in person to an event broadcasted live and *archived* by 1000's of eyeballs - both in person and video witnesses - large sporting events

2026-03-15 20:12:09 UTC

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Trump is a fraud. Revealed by keeping score, referees, bombs, energy, math, and physics. *Alternative facts* comes crashing down.

2026-03-14 20:16:52 UTC

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Zeppelin 1977, Seattle

2026-03-13 21:54:27 UTC

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we will see

2026-03-13 17:49:34 UTC

LFG
https://www.ten31timestamp.com/p/the-global-capital-circuit

2026-03-13 15:22:42 UTC

Navy will escort.......
----Next headline-----
Navy ship on fire from drone attack
https://citadelwire.com/

2026-03-13 14:50:59 UTC

DGAF
https://blossom.primal.net/a60d34d4d182218ded101725e1c1af58b175b2a46c360dcaaabfd791fee79309.mov

2026-03-13 14:49:37 UTC

Good Month for BTC.
Need to reclaim 20-25oz in the coming months for sustained *decoupling*
Is it risk-on? risk-off? SOV? New tech? New commodity?
✅YES to all
https://blossom.primal.net/40144444d7f9c0274b5df7311df0d479d42c9dce452d18595b774d62be2afb4f.png
https://blossom.primal.net/34b3960db1a0e8aeb9e060ac076b93edb22a28c69a4c503292f7c11406fba9d9.png

2026-03-13 11:47:17 UTC

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HomeExchange = P2P exchanging. Great way to monetize your home securely (WOT) with no tax implications

2026-03-13 11:39:42 UTC

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He lies. Cheats at golf. Cheats in business. Cheats on wife/family. Total fraud.

2026-03-12 23:09:44 UTC

Trump is a fraud. Things like keeping score, referees, fists, bombs, energy, math, physics totally expose him.
Some facts are just straight up true, not *alternative facts*

2026-03-12 22:40:05 UTC

I find myself hoping for the total collapse:
1. Trump is fraud
2. We (US citizens over last 30-50+years) deserve max pain as we are so utterly fiscally undisciplined
3. The new capital allocators will have - on average - a long time preference mindset
BTC to $1-2million as fast as possible

2026-03-12 18:01:28 UTC

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agree, but this dude actually puts together good 10-15 min rips; he is also a bitcoiner (maxi), funny and I'm guessing a god-man (cross on neck); give him a try

2026-03-12 17:56:23 UTC

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time stamped and signed
#nevent1q…70u2

2026-03-12 12:07:21 UTC

Send it
https://open.spotify.com/episode/65OpEKtcwYTMtVj8kv5ZIU?

2026-03-11 19:57:11 UTC

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💯 + avoid cap gains theft

2026-03-10 23:15:04 UTC

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miners I collectively _barely_ bitcoiners. They are just converting electricity to value, they could sell BTC immediately for fiat; and may not know anything about sound money or how the proof of work works or why.
Crazy to think about the security of the system could be resting on unprincipled bitcoiners or even no-coiners

2026-03-10 23:12:05 UTC

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who will buy the debt? we will

2026-03-10 00:41:29 UTC

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Never have to ask waddi miss? Truth is evident to all.

2026-03-09 17:10:47 UTC

stay humble + stack the truth
https://citadelwire.com/

2026-03-08 18:27:14 UTC

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ATH 40 oz
#nevent1q…quug

2026-03-06 16:14:06 UTC

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luke

2026-03-06 16:13:38 UTC

Why Connect to a Large Routing Node (R) with your private LN node (P)?
Receive Capacity: The primary benefit is gaining inbound liquidity. Node R has massive capacity. Your private channel P <-> R gives you a direct pipe to receive funds from anywhere in the network via R. (R can route payments to you over the private channel because it knows the channel exists).
Send Capacity: It gives you a highly reliable, high-capacity path out to the network when you initiate payments.
Privacy: Hides your specific channel activity/capacity from the public graph. Only you and R know the details.
Limited Routing Potential: While not automatic public routing, it does position you to potentially route payments if explicitly chosen by senders who know your node/channel. This is more common in private/enterprise networks or between cooperating nodes.
Conclusion:
Your private channel does not allow you to participate in the automatic, public routing mesh where random nodes discover your channel and use it as a hop. Other users' wallets cannot find your channel to route through it.
However, connecting to a large node via a private channel:
Does enable you to send/receive payments through that node.
Does give you significant liquidity benefits.
Can technically allow you to route payments if a sender explicitly chooses your node using manual pathfinding or pre-shared knowledge. This is not "public routing" in the standard sense, but it is routing for specific, targeted payments.
So, while your private node won't buzz with routing activity like a major public node, that connection to a big node is still strategically valuable for your own liquidity and can facilitate specialized routing under specific conditions.

2026-03-06 16:07:34 UTC

Maple AI Prompt: "What types of bitcoin addresses and software upgrades does JoinMarket need to function well? Does it need segwit and/or taproot?"
Summary
SegWit is Essential: JoinMarket fails cost-effectively without it.
Taproot is Optimal: Strongly recommended for privacy/fee gains but not mandatory.
Address Hierarchy: bc1p... (Taproot) > bc1q... (SegWit) > 3... (nested SegWit) > 1... (avoid).
Upgrading ensures JoinMarket operates at peak efficiency while maximizing privacy.

2026-03-06 16:07:21 UTC

2026-03-06 11:57:51 UTC

2026-03-06 11:52:41 UTC

We are going to explain two Bitcoin privacy-enhancing techniques:
1. **Large Lightning Channels**: How they enhance privacy in the Lightning Network.
2. **JoinMarket**: How it enhances privacy on the Bitcoin base layer.
---
### 1. Large Lightning Channels and Privacy in the Lightning Network
The Lightning Network is a Layer-2 protocol on top of Bitcoin that enables fast and cheap transactions by creating payment channels between parties. Privacy in the Lightning Network comes from the fact that most transactions occur off-chain and are only settled on the Bitcoin blockchain when the channel is opened or closed.
#### How Large Channels Enhance Privacy:
- **Anonymity Set Increase**:
- When you open a Lightning channel, you create an on-chain transaction (the funding transaction). This transaction is visible on the blockchain and can be analyzed.
- However, if you open a very large channel (with a significant amount of Bitcoin), you can route many payments through that single channel without needing to open new ones. This reduces the number of on-chain transactions tied to your activity.
- Fewer on-chain transactions mean less data for chain analysts to link your activity.
- **Transaction Volume Obfuscation**:
- In the Lightning Network, the actual payment amounts and the parties involved in intermediate hops are not publicly visible. Only the two endpoints (sender and receiver) know the details of a payment.
- Large channels can handle a high volume of payments. When a channel is used to route many payments, it becomes harder for an observer (including the channel counterparty) to determine which payments are yours and which are just being routed.
- **Liquidity Hiding**:
- The balance of a Lightning channel is not public. Only the two channel partners know the current balance (unless they choose to reveal it).
- A large channel has more liquidity, which allows it to route more payments. This makes it difficult for an external observer to track how the liquidity is being used over time.
- **Reduced On-Chain Footprint**:
- Opening and closing channels are the only on-chain events. If you open a large channel and keep it open for a long time, you avoid creating multiple on-chain transactions for individual payments. This reduces the opportunity for blockchain analysis to link your addresses.
**In summary**: Large Lightning channels reduce your on-chain footprint, allow you to handle more payments off-chain, and help mix your payments with others, thereby enhancing privacy.
---
### 2. JoinMarket and Privacy on the Bitcoin Base Layer
JoinMarket is a CoinJoin implementation that uses a market-based approach to improve privacy. It allows users to mix their coins with others in a decentralized way.
#### How JoinMarket Enhances Privacy:
- **Breaking Common Input Ownership Heuristic**:
- In a typical Bitcoin transaction, if multiple inputs are spent together, it is assumed they belong to the same owner. JoinMarket breaks this by having multiple participants (each with their own inputs) in a single transaction. Therefore, the inputs in a JoinMarket transaction are controlled by different people, breaking the common ownership link.
- **CoinJoin Mechanism**:
- A CoinJoin transaction combines inputs from multiple users and produces outputs that are redistributed to each user (but now mixed).
- For example, three users (A, B, C) each contribute one input. The transaction generates three outputs of equal value (if using fixed amounts) going to new addresses controlled by A, B, and C. An observer cannot link which output belongs to which input.
- **Market for Liquidity**:
- JoinMarket creates a market where:
- **Makers**: Provide liquidity (by offering to participate in CoinJoins) and earn fees.
- **Takers**: Pay fees to the makers to mix their coins.
- This market-based approach ensures that there is always liquidity for mixing, making it more efficient and affordable.
- **Improving Anonymity Set**:
- The anonymity set is the number of participants in a mix. JoinMarket allows for multiple participants per transaction (though typically 2-5 per mix). By participating in multiple rounds of CoinJoin, a user can increase their anonymity set.
- **Avoiding Timing Analysis**:
- JoinMarket transactions look like regular transactions on the blockchain. Unlike some other mixers, JoinMarket does not require a fixed number of participants or fixed amounts (though using equal amounts is recommended for best privacy). This flexibility makes it harder to identify as a mixing transaction.
- **Decentralization and Control**:
- JoinMarket is open-source and decentralized. Users run their own wallets and control their private keys. There is no central server that can be compromised.
**How to Use JoinMarket for Enhanced Privacy**:
1. **As a Taker**: You pay a small fee to join a CoinJoin with makers. Your coins are mixed with others, breaking the link between your old and new UTXOs.
2. **As a Maker**: You earn fees by providing liquidity. You keep your coins in a dedicated wallet and respond to requests from takers. Your coins are used in CoinJoin transactions, which can also help your privacy because your coins are seen in multiple transactions with different sets of users.
**Note**: For the best privacy, users should perform multiple rounds of CoinJoin and use different amounts and timing.
---
### Conclusion
- **Large Lightning Channels**: Enhance privacy by reducing on-chain footprint, hiding payment details off-chain, and enabling high-volume routing that obfuscates individual payments.
- **JoinMarket**: Enhances privacy by breaking the common input ownership heuristic via CoinJoin, using a decentralized market for liquidity, and increasing the anonymity set of your coins.
Both techniques are complementary and can be used together for strong Bitcoin privacy.
</think>
### How Large Lightning Channels and JoinMarket Enhance Privacy in Bitcoin
#### **1. Large Lightning Channels: Privacy Benefits**
The Lightning Network (Layer-2) enables off-chain transactions, but **opening/closing channels** creates on-chain footprints. **Large channels** mitigate this:
- **Reduced On-Chain Exposure**
- A single large channel replaces multiple small channels, minimizing on-chain opening/closing transactions. Fewer on-chain events mean fewer clues for blockchain analysis.
- Example: One 1 BTC channel handles 100x more payments than ten 0.1 BTC channels, avoiding repeated on-chain activity.
- **Improved Routing Anonymity**
- Large channels can **route more payments**. Your transactions blend with others' routed payments, making it harder to distinguish your activity.
- Unlike on-chain transactions, intermediate routing nodes in Lightning only see adjacent hops, not the full path (sender/receiver remain private).
- **Liquidity Obfuscation**
- Channel balances are **not public**. A large channel hides whether you’re spending, receiving, or routing funds. External observers can’t determine if a payment is yours or routed.
- **Long-Lived Channels**
- Large channels stay open longer, avoiding frequent on-chain settlements. This reduces timing analysis risks (e.g., linking channel closures to specific spending events).
#### **2. JoinMarket: Privacy via CoinJoin + Market Incentives**
JoinMarket is a **decentralized CoinJoin** protocol with a market for liquidity. It breaks on-chain heuristics:
- **Breaking Common Input Ownership**
- In regular transactions, inputs spent together are assumed owned by one entity. JoinMarket combines inputs from **multiple users** in a single CoinJoin transaction, shattering this heuristic.
- Example: Alice, Bob, and Charlie each contribute inputs to a transaction. Outputs go to their new addresses. Analysts can’t link inputs to specific outputs.
- **Market-Driven Anonymity**
- **Makers**: Provide liquidity (offer to join CoinJoins) and earn fees.
- **Takers**: Pay fees to mix their coins with makers.
- This incentivizes liquidity, ensuring there are always participants for larger anonymity sets.
- **Cost-Efficient Mixing**
- Fees are low (competition among makers). Users can mix coins affordably multiple times, exponentially increasing anonymity.
- Contrast with centralized mixers: No custodial risk, no fixed fees.
- **Equal Outputs for Stronger Privacy**
- JoinMarket uses **equal output amounts** (e.g., 0.5 BTC × 4). This prevents amount-based linking, forcing analysts to guess which output belongs to whom.
- **Decentralization & Control**
- No trusted third party. Users retain custody of keys.
- Transactions look like regular payments, avoiding "mixer fingerprint" detection.
---
### **Synergy for Enhanced Privacy**
1. **Lightning + JoinMarket Workflow**
- Use JoinMarket to mix on-chain coins → Fund large Lightning channels with "clean" UTXOs → Conduct private off-chain payments.
- Breaking on-chain links before entering Lightning reduces traceability.
2. **Layered Defense**
- **JoinMarket**: Obfuscates on-chain history.
- **Lightning**: Minimizes future on-chain activity; hides payment details.
- Together, they form a **privacy stack** against chain analysis.
---
### **Key Considerations**
- **Lightning Risks**:
- Channel openings are still visible on-chain (use mixed coins!).
- Malicious nodes might attempt timing analysis, but large channels reduce this risk.
- **JoinMarket Best Practices**:
- Mix multiple times to increase anonymity set.
- Avoid linking mixed UTXOs to known addresses.
---
### **Conclusion**
- **Large Lightning Channels**: Reduce on-chain footprints, hide balances, and blur routing data.
- **JoinMarket**: Breaks input-linking heuristics via decentralized, incentive-driven CoinJoins.
- **Combined**: They create a powerful privacy shield—JoinMarket anonymizes coins *before* they enter Lightning, while large channels ensure minimal future on-chain exposure.

2026-03-06 02:21:52 UTC

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The attack is:
supporting a fork without consensus; calling anyone who disagrees a pedo or captured; implied threats to devs or miners or even node runners that they will be legally liable for *illegal* non-financial data

2026-03-06 01:57:07 UTC

War + AI = massive printing
https://news.kagi.com/s/ya39rh

2026-03-05 02:48:46 UTC

War. Irresponsible spending. Chronyism.
We voted for this?
Politicians wont save us. Opt out. Use a money they cannot control.

2026-03-05 02:26:56 UTC

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Hold cash, the best cash = bitcoin + work to produce something
Always has been, always will be

2026-03-04 02:45:08 UTC

https://news.kagi.com/s/nv3pjy

2026-03-04 02:41:15 UTC

https://open.spotify.com/episode/52o6E5C2sDH7irNgUpGOaB?
Via Maple AI:
Prompt: "Contrast Jeff Snider's view on money printing with Lyn Alden's views"
Key Agreement:
Currency Debasement: Both ultimately agree that the current path of fiscal deficits facilitated by accommodative central banks (the combination Alden emphasizes) leads to long-term dollar depreciation and loss of purchasing power, even if their primary lenses of analysis differ (private credit vs. fiscal-monetary coordination).
Critique of Central Bank Omnipotence: Both reject the simplistic view that central banks can easily control the economy or inflation through "money printing" alone. They see central banks as constrained by larger systems (private credit for Snider, fiscal needs for Alden).
Systemic Risk: Both see significant systemic risks in the current monetary/fiscal regime.
In Summary:
Snider would say: "Stop obsessing over the Fed's balance sheet. The real money creation and destruction happens in the hidden, unstable world of private Eurodollar credit. QE is just cleaning up the messes this system creates; it doesn't print useful money."
Alden would say: "QE alone doesn't cause widespread inflation. It's the combination of massive government deficits funded by the Fed buying bonds that prints money entering the real economy, causing inflation and debasing the currency when supply can't keep up."
Their views offer different but crucial perspectives on the complex mechanics and consequences of modern monetary policy far beyond simplistic "money printer go brrr" narratives.

2026-03-03 23:26:19 UTC

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wen pubkey party? @nprofile…2gs7 @npub1key…lt3h
#nevent1q…ee4g

2026-03-03 19:18:40 UTC

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Bitcoin will only limit/stop war when the govt have no resources and have to convince the population to send them sats to kill.
Until then wars will be the #1 *excuse* they will give to print.
#2 will be "the existential threat of AI"

2026-03-03 12:31:18 UTC

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One winner. Completely ignores *who should win*
Chain with the most work is king, even if cheaters *slipped in* a double-spend
Generals had to have consensus on one thing before the headed off to their bunkers: message with the most work is the truth, that is it.

2026-03-01 21:28:07 UTC

Humans are going to gravitate to a single neutral money
This is becoming obvious

2026-02-28 22:55:08 UTC

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polymarket

2026-02-28 17:24:42 UTC

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💯One simple thing that you can do today in AI and freedom is switch your daily “chatbot” activity to Maple. It’s a beautiful and simple mobile app (and web app) that is fully encrypted. Think Signal for AI.

2026-02-27 15:38:40 UTC

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Why not Maple AI?

2026-02-27 15:25:29 UTC

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>When a minority chain hits its first difficulty reset
First DA reset will be 280 days at 5% of hash. Could be longer if people loose conviction (+ money) and point hash back to main chain

2026-02-27 03:46:35 UTC

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280 days at 200 mins, 700 days at 500 mins

2026-02-27 03:25:37 UTC

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Adjustment Mechanics
Rule 1: Difficulty only adjusts after 2,016 blocks, regardless of time taken.
Rule 2: The adjustment uses the Actual Time to mine those 2,016 blocks, capped at 80,640 minutes (max 4× the 20,160 min target).
Calculation:
New Difficulty = Old Difficulty × (20,160 / min(Actual_Time, 80,640))
With Actual_Time capped at 80,640 min, the maximum reduction is:
New Difficulty = Old Difficulty × (20,160 / 80,640) = Old Difficulty × 0.25
Result: 75% difficulty drop (the maximum allowed).
3. Consequences
Massive delays:
Time to mine 2,016 blocks: ~700 days (with 500 min blocks).
During this period, blocks take hours, not minutes. Transactions stall, and the chain becomes nearly unusable.
Post-adjustment reality:
Even after a 75% difficulty drop:
Remaining mining power: 5% of original.
Adjusted difficulty: 25% of original.
New block time:
(Original Time) × (Difficulty / Hash Rate) = 10 min × (25% / 5%) = 10 min × 5 = 50 min
Blocks still take 50 minutes on average—far longer than the 10-minute target.

2026-02-27 03:23:22 UTC

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No way. If initial, say only Ocean support is there - say a generous 5%, then the block will be coming in every 200 mins. Assuming no other hash rate is pointed to the new chain, 2016 blocks is 700 days till the difficulty adjustment.

2026-02-26 23:50:29 UTC

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yeah, it will *print blocks* much slower, though not quicker

2026-02-26 19:43:53 UTC

Is this really accurate?
Irreversibly Destroy
https://primal.net/e/nevent1qqsvq6sdzma7kwtxe3rkwd93m5659k9rn094wzqdn5jm9ktv65cfqzgv2w7re

2026-02-25 14:09:53 UTC

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The Real AI

2026-02-25 02:44:13 UTC

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indexing to Gold is real signal

2026-02-25 02:42:01 UTC

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or Spokane to Chicago

2026-02-25 01:31:34 UTC

Why cant AI takeover all the politicians jobs?

2026-02-24 18:00:03 UTC

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Taproot not worth it? Honest question

2026-02-24 14:19:07 UTC

Bitcoin is the best money
https://blossom.primal.net/ab6c5427f3e3c647ecc72199e8bc5056974ca6f59afd9da9eb90bf2c7513b7a7.jpg

2026-02-20 23:10:03 UTC

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Fees are the ultimate filter
🌎🧑‍🚀🔫🧑‍🚀
#nevent1q…cxx0

2026-02-20 20:27:55 UTC

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Stacking relentlessly

2026-02-20 20:26:36 UTC

Fuck you money.
Not the stack size, but freedoms it protects.
Still stacking it.

2026-02-20 15:09:18 UTC

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LFG
#nevent1q…csjl

2026-02-19 20:58:04 UTC

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Honestly I dont know how you and a core group of others do it. Working in fiat- land, completely outside of *the industry*, then stacking knowledge + sats is way easier, even if a bit of a soul-crush on some days.
Just realize that many are feeding off of your conviction + comitment to making the world a better place. 🙏

2026-02-19 20:41:37 UTC

Are we goin to do the "unrealized capital gains tax" thing? or go completely the other way: "legal tender, no cap gains"?
It feels like it will be happening soon

2026-02-19 17:59:16 UTC

wen rhr?

2026-02-19 01:59:00 UTC

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bitstein is a legend

2026-02-19 01:56:40 UTC

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high desert palouse

2026-02-18 17:28:18 UTC

How exactly can Japan invest 36 billion in US? I thought they actually dont have any money? They owe way more than they produce, right?
*Some* pretend that businesses/Govt/sovereigns are different than plebs/households.... this is fiat BS at its best.
I either have cash (savings) to invest, borrow cash to invest or have to work more to earn cash to invest. There are no other options.
This truth will eventually win.
F-in frustrating that it is taking so long....

2026-02-17 19:09:09 UTC

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Agree. Best anarchy move is to quietly and peacefully use a money they cannot control. Work. Save. Wait.

2026-02-16 20:16:44 UTC

Maple AI: Austrian Ecomonics:
"Policy Implications: Limited Government & Free Markets:
Core Idea: Based on their analysis of knowledge, incentives, and process, Austrians consistently conclude that voluntary exchange within a framework of strong property rights and minimal government intervention leads to the most efficient, dynamic, and prosperous outcomes. Government intervention (price controls, regulations, central planning, monetary manipulation) distorts signals, creates discoordination, and leads to inefficiencies or crises.
Implication: Strong advocacy for laissez-faire capitalism, free trade, and radical limitations on state economic power. Deep skepticism of government solutions to economic problems."

2026-02-16 20:07:10 UTC

Maple AI:
"In essence, Austrian Economics provides a framework for understanding the economy as a complex, dynamic process driven by the subjective valuations, dispersed knowledge, and purposeful actions of individuals, coordinated primarily through the price system and entrepreneurial rivalry within free markets, and arguing that government intervention often disrupts this intricate process."

2026-02-13 17:55:50 UTC

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Back to to basics:
✅tic tock
✅block height for past time, UTC for future
#nevent1q…pvee

2026-02-13 17:50:46 UTC

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time is discrete ....
change my mind meme
#nevent1q…5u08

2026-02-13 02:44:56 UTC

"Space is associated with the structure of the hypergraph, yet time is associated with computation on it."
S. Wolfram

2026-02-12 13:56:26 UTC

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@nprofile…46eg + Wolfram pod/discussion would be 🔥
https://dergigi.com/2021/01/14/bitcoin-is-time/
https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2024/10/on-the-nature-of-time/

2026-02-11 22:55:57 UTC

Warsh appointment is noise
Signal:
The FED doesn't control the interest rates. Who cares what the short-term (T-bills + T-notes) rate is? No one should. 10yr+ bonds is what counts. Fewer buyers of US bonds is the problem: a strong signal that the world/market no longer trusts US-bonds as reliable store of value. Yield curve control (YCC) is also a BS term. Call it what it is: they (FED) step in and buy the unwanted bonds with printed money to keep the rates lower. $7-8 trillion is due (rolling over) in 2026 and they will likely have to print (= YCC) to make sure rates don't spike.
Full on ponzi
Buy and hold real money they cant print

2026-02-11 20:10:20 UTC

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Maple AI breakdown:
<think>
Okay, the user wants me to explain a complex financial auction report in simple terms. This text is packed with Treasury auction jargon that would confuse anyone outside finance.
First, I need to unpack the key elements: Treasury auctions, yields, bid-to-cover ratios, and buyer categories. The user likely doesn't care about terms like "tail" or "SOMA" - they just want to understand why this auction was considered bad and its effects.
The report describes two failed auctions (3-year and 10-year). For simplicity, I'll compare it to a farmer's market where no one wants overpriced potatoes. The yield is the price the government pays to borrow money - when it's high, it's bad for borrowers like the government.
The "tail" concept is tricky - it's the gap between expected and actual yield. I'll visualize it as a farmer hoping to sell at $1/lb but having to settle for $1.014. That disappointment matters because big buyers (Indirects/Directs) lost interest, forcing middlemen (Dealers) to buy more potatoes than they wanted.
The aftermath is interesting: yields rose AFTER the auction despite the bad news. That's counterintuitive! I should explain this through investor psychology - they saw the poor demand and bet yields would keep climbing.
The user might be a novice investor or just curious about financial news. They didn't ask for advice, so I'll stick to explaining concepts. No need to mention bitcoin or high-beta stocks unless tying them to the broader market reaction.
The tone should stay light - maybe tease Bloomberg's bad predictions but not dwell on it. Focus on why this auction made traders nervous about government borrowing costs rising. That's the core takeaway.
</think>
Here's a breakdown of that financial jargon into simple concepts:
1. **What Happened:** The US government (Treasury) held an auction to sell its 10-year loans ("bonds" or "paper") to investors.
2. **Why it was Bad ("Dreadful"):**
* **Low Demand:** Not many investors wanted to buy these bonds compared to recent auctions.
* **High Cost for Government:** The government had to offer a higher interest rate (4.177%) than they *hoped* to offer (4.163%) to sell them. This "gap" (1.4bps) was the biggest miss in months.
* **Fewer Bidders:** The ratio showing how many bids there were vs. bonds sold ("Bid to Cover" = 2.388) was the lowest in over a year.
* **Big Buyers Stayed Away:**
* **Foreign Buyers ("Indirects"):** Their participation (64.5%) was the lowest in a year, well below average.
* **Domestic Big Players ("Directs"):** Their participation (22.1%) dropped significantly from the month before.
* **Middlemen Got Stuck:** Because big buyers weren't interested, Wall Street banks ("Dealers") had to buy a bigger chunk (13.54%) than usual - essentially leftovers they didn't really want.
3. **Why it Wasn't Worse:**
* The Federal Reserve ("Fed's SOMA") bought a large amount ($11.9 Billion), which helped prevent the auction from being an *even bigger* failure. They essentially stepped in as a buyer.
4. **The Weird Result (Why Rates Rose AFTER the Auction):**
* **Auction Shows Weakness:** The terrible auction proved investors have little appetite for US government debt.
* **Investors Panic:** Seeing this weak demand, investors thought, "If no one wants US bonds *now*, the government will have to offer *even higher* interest rates to sell them *in the future* to borrow money."
* **Selling Existing Bonds:** Investors holding *existing* 10-year bonds immediately tried to sell them. Why? Because they thought new bonds would soon pay more interest, making their existing bonds (with slightly lower rates) less attractive.
* **Bond Prices Fall, Yields Rise:** Selling pressure drives down the *price* of existing bonds on the secondary market. Remember, **bond prices move inversely to yields (interest rates)**. So when prices fall, yields rise.
* **Result:** The yield on the *existing* 10-year bond quickly jumped from 4.15% to 4.17%, *even though the auction itself showed weak demand*. It was a reaction to the fear of *future* higher rates.
**Simple Analogy:**
Imagine the US government is a farmer auctioning potatoes:
1. **Mediocre Sale Yesterday (3Y):** The previous day's potato auction was okay but not great (less foreign buyers, but some big local orders).
2. **Bad Sale Today (10Y):**
* Fewer buyers showed up overall.
* The farmer had to accept a price *lower* than he hoped ("tailed" the expected price).
* Big restaurants (Foreign buyers) and grocery chains (Domestic institutions) bought way fewer potatoes than usual.
* Middlemen (Dealers) got stuck with a huge pile of potatoes nobody else wanted.
* Only the government's own bulk buyer (The Fed) saved the day by buying a large amount.
3. **Market Reaction:** Seeing the farmer struggle to sell potatoes *today*, potato traders in the market thought, "Uh oh, nobody wants potatoes! The farmer will probably have to make them *cheaper* (offer higher interest rates) *tomorrow* to sell them." So, they immediately started selling the potatoes they already had, causing the *current market price* for potatoes to fall. (In bonds, a falling price means a rising yield/interest rate).
**In a Nutshell:** The government had a really hard time selling its 10-year debt. Big investors didn't want it. This failure made existing bondholders so scared that interest rates will need to go *even higher* soon that they sold their current bonds, causing interest rates to rise *immediately*.

2026-02-10 19:37:05 UTC

FED never produced anything, they were initially minimally funded.... they actually printed virtually all of it....
How Asset Purchases Work (Mechanics):
When the Fed decides to buy an asset (like a Treasury bond or MBS), it does the following:
Identifies the Seller: The Fed buys assets from banks, primary dealers, institutional investors, etc., usually through auctions in the open market.
Credits Reserves: The Fed pays for the asset by crediting the reserve account of the seller's bank.
Example: Imagine the Fed buys a $1 million Treasury bond from Investment Fund A, which banks at MegaBank.
The Fed adds the bond to its assets on its balance sheet.
Simultaneously, the Fed creates $1 million in new digital reserves and credits MegaBank's reserve account at the Fed (adding to the liabilities side of its balance sheet).
MegaBank then credits Investment Fund A's account by $1 million.
Key Points:
No Pre-existing Money Needed: The Fed doesn't draw down a bank account funded by taxes or borrow money to make these purchases. It creates the payment digitally at the moment of purchase.
Balance Sheet Expansion: Each asset purchase simultaneously increases both the Assets (the bond or MBS) and Liabilities (the newly created reserves) on the Fed's balance sheet. The Fed's balance sheet grows when it buys assets.
Initial Capital (1913): While the Fed creates its operational money, it did start with initial capital provided by member banks.
Commercial banks that joined the Federal Reserve System were required to purchase shares (stock) in their regional Federal Reserve Bank. These shares paid a fixed dividend (6% by law), but did not confer control like regular stock. This initial capital provided a small buffer, but it was tiny compared to the Fed's balance sheet today and was not the source of funds for asset purchases.
Gold Certificates (Historically): In the early decades under the gold standard, the Fed did hold gold certificates (backed by gold held at the Treasury). This provided a form of backing for the currency it issued, but the mechanism for paying for asset purchases was still primarily the creation of reserves or the issuance of notes, albeit constrained by gold reserve requirements. The gold wasn't "spent" to buy assets; it acted as collateral limiting how much the Fed could create.
Earnings & Seigniorage: The Fed earns interest on the assets (bonds, MBS) it holds. After covering its operating expenses and paying the statutory dividend to member banks, the Fed remits the vast majority of its earnings back to the U.S. Treasury. This is a form of government revenue called seigniorage. However, these earnings are a result of holding the assets, not the source of funds to buy them.
In Summary:
The Federal Reserve didn't get "money" from somewhere else to start buying assets. Its foundational power, granted by Congress, is the authority to create U.S. base money – both physical currency (Federal Reserve Notes) and, crucially for asset purchases, digital bank reserves. When the Fed buys an asset, it pays for it by creating new reserves out of thin air and crediting the seller's bank. This is the essence of its ability to conduct monetary policy and expand the money supply. Initial capital from member banks and historical gold holdings provided structure and constraints, but not the operational funds for purchases.

2026-02-10 19:33:51 UTC

*FED acting as the Treasury's Agent*
From Maple AI. Fed Reserves Assets:
"Foreign Currency (Intermittently, Especially Post-Bretton Woods):
The Fed holds relatively small amounts of major foreign currencies (euros, yen, etc.).
Used historically for foreign exchange (FX) intervention, in coordination with the Treasury, to influence the value of the U.S. dollar. (Note: The Treasury, via the Exchange Stabilization Fund, is the primary actor, but the Fed acts as its agent)."

2026-02-10 19:33:38 UTC

2026-02-10 19:24:56 UTC

2026-02-10 15:17:16 UTC

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IMHO the critical hurdle is the quality of the good/service. I'm hoarding and wont part with my sats for just anything - a merchant will be forced to be better; just like I have to work harder to avoid selling. Hard money forces more productivity + higher quality goods = human flurishing

2026-02-10 15:12:13 UTC

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make your stuff that everyone has to have = forcing function for high quality

2026-02-09 19:23:56 UTC

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circulate
#nevent1q…k3sc

2026-02-09 18:28:58 UTC

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Transaction finality

2026-02-09 02:37:20 UTC

Why I'm still stacking:
None of the core facts have changed:
✅DA-POW ledger based on time and energy works without anyone in charge
✅bitcoin is both money + a network
✅gold is not a network - based on its physical limitations, it needs a network outside of gold to work
✅gold has failed before and cannot be upgraded
✅gold supply is elastic
✅USD is failing: $38 trillion debt + no buyer; train has left, NSTT

2026-02-09 01:16:45 UTC

All the dudes who say the superbowl sucks quit football as a kid.
Human excellence comes in many forms.
Just recognize how skilled + dedicated these guys are.
If you could do it, you would.