Trey

Bitcoin + FIRE | Newsletter: firebtc.io | VP Sales @unchained

Public Key

npub1m6y9qq06c74trgs60ya320pgmhz6099grra5lw04akyuxvcz7lvq9ue2p9

NIP-05 Address

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsdazzsq8av02435gd8jwc48s5dm3d8jj5p3760h867mzwrxvp00kqpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dsts6p6m

Publishing to

relay.damus.io

nos.lol

Author Public Key

npub1m6y9qq06c74trgs60ya320pgmhz6099grra5lw04akyuxvcz7lvq9ue2p9

Show more details

Last Notes

2026-03-11 16:49:54 UTC

A bear who gives bitcoin a 10% chance of hitting $1M still breaks even buying at $100k. Bump that to 25% and every dollar you invest has an expected value of $2.50.
This is Expected Value Analysis — the same math poker players use to make profitable decisions across thousands of hands. It doesn't care whether you win any single bet. It cares about probability × payoff, repeated over time.
I spent years on a trading floor watching smart people chase certainty in markets that never offered it. The best traders didn't try to be right on every position. They made +EV decisions consistently and let compound math do the heavy lifting.
Every major FIRE decision works the same way. Rent or buy? Hold cash or deploy it? Index funds or bitcoin? You can estimate probability-weighted outcomes for each option, and the clarity is worth the exercise.
When I run EVA on bitcoin's 10-year outlook, the expected value dominates everything else competing for my capital. I walk through the full framework in one of my FIRE BTC deep dives — poker math, rent-vs-buy, and bitcoin's asymmetry.
https://firebtc.io/p/expected-value-thinking

2026-03-08 13:30:48 UTC

Test post

2026-02-28 17:14:13 UTC

- reply

The FIRE BTC Compass tool now supports 7 major fiat currencies.
#nevent1q…gqev

2026-02-26 14:46:14 UTC

I set up a tiny bitcoin miner with my 9-year-old daughter on a Saturday afternoon. Posted a picture on X. Woke up to 1.4 million views.
The device is a Bitaxe. Size of a light bulb, 15 watts, couple hundred bucks. Runs a real ASIC chip, the same kind in industrial mining warehouses, just way smaller.
The odds of finding a block are about 1 in 5 million per day. Run it a year and that's 1 in 15,000. I'd need to run it 15,000 years to expect a hit.
Solo miners do win though. One hit block 912,632 and took home 3.125 BTC. Not me. Yet.
Bitcoin still lets anyone participate directly. No intermediary, no permission required. Just a miner, a power source, and curiosity. People are using mining heat for their homes, capturing flared gas for bitcoin, balancing power grids with hashrate.
My daughter got it right away. She just wanted to know what "hashes per second" means.
https://firebtc.io/p/hashrate-hopium

2026-02-23 19:02:48 UTC

- reply

Hasn’t been. But after 2008 the stock market had a similar 5yr CAGR. But nobody plans for retirement on a 5yr window of historical returns

2026-02-19 13:54:18 UTC

I just launched the FIRE BTC Compass.
It's a free tool that shows you exactly where you stand on the path to financial independence — built for people who hold bitcoin.
Most FIRE calculators assume 100% stocks and a 4% withdrawal rate. That's broken for bitcoiners.
The Compass uses a BTC-adjusted target that accounts for bitcoin's asymmetric upside. If you hold bitcoin, your FIRE number is lower than you think.
No account. No tracking. Your data never leaves your browser.
Try it: calc.firebtc.io

2026-02-05 17:30:49 UTC

Bitcoin is down A LOT between the time I wrote this on Monday and the time it was posted today 😅
https://www.firebtc.io/p/when-conviction-gets-tested

2025-10-01 22:38:28 UTC

One thing I’ve found difficult with FIRE is learning how to spend the value I’ve saved.
You delay gratification for so long, then feel uneasy and nervous about spending it down.
Spending is a muscle that must be built, just like saving.

2025-10-01 14:27:30 UTC

This week’s issue of FIRE BTC is staged.
I’m digging into the math behind this lady’s tragic lottery win.
Hit subscribe so you don’t miss it!
firebtc.substack.com/subscribe
https://blossom.primal.net/ba0b82bea7564c05c75ef06dce2430f0451b43ed3eb95544ea3bfe50a6fd8236.jpg

2025-09-29 23:36:05 UTC

Diversification is a big word that means less bitcoin.

2025-09-28 23:59:26 UTC

Have you stacked hard enough to feel comfortable when bitcoin makes a new all time high?

2025-09-23 18:04:31 UTC

Chipped one in for birdie today. Is there a better thrill?

2025-09-21 22:14:39 UTC

- reply

Sure, governments who want to destroy bitcoin are just standing around frustrated right now, but as soon as this change happens, they will finally be able to do it.

2025-09-21 16:03:59 UTC

The best thing about the Core v Knots ordeal is more people running nodes, even if they don’t fully understand how it all works yet.

2025-09-21 15:35:33 UTC

- reply

> They already bypass the mempool with services like slipstream and others.
Exactly.
The OP is simply pointing out that actors who are not concerned with cost (like nation states) but are motivated to destroy bitcoin will go to any length necessary to get their shit into a block, which will be stored on every node that doesn’t prune, Knots, Core, or otherwise.

2025-09-19 18:24:29 UTC

- reply

WOW thanks for sharing that. I was already thinking she could die before breaking even on the $1 million but that’s also a potential risk I hadn’t thought of

2025-09-19 18:19:08 UTC

This is the most depressing thing I think I've seen on X.
The state of personal finance education is absolutely rekt 🤦‍♂️
https://blossom.primal.net/e8429767471692be4f3e340397fd4a815f3251e90546c432f8942f75ea44bc19.jpg

2025-09-15 19:07:49 UTC

- reply

> that removes one’s ability to claim plausible deniability
This is doing a lot of work here
But we obviously have a very different sense of the risks to bitcoin in this instance. Luckily, you can set your own non-consensus rules and not worry about what anyone else is doing.

2025-09-15 16:56:21 UTC

- reply

If I come across it again, I’ll post it in this thread. Should have bookmarked it. Seen more than once unfortunately

2025-09-15 16:52:04 UTC

- reply

It’s your node, so you can do whatever you want on it!
BTW, I called out bad faith from both sides in the OP, but only one have I seen tagging the FBI on X … that shit is shameful.

2025-09-15 15:10:26 UTC

Money solves the coincidence of wants (apples → shoes) and reduces uncertainty about the future by giving us optionality.
Holding money is using it.
Spending is just the final step.
Saving is using.

2025-09-10 13:57:55 UTC

Bitcoin is about to be a low-rate phenomenon again.

2025-09-09 14:01:49 UTC

Why are you investing when you can just SAVE and get wealthy??
https://blossom.primal.net/e516f385ace0e34973f0bcdd41e0fb1b9f90328c1f3202caf07f3ba836e699a2.jpg

2025-09-06 17:56:45 UTC

Calling things by their proper name is the first step to fixing them. Well done 👏
https://blossom.primal.net/951ca5d93795647e5e517308f9babf5ea765090cfe7382ec8ca9a728c1324696.jpg

2025-08-16 12:19:03 UTC

gm
You can just stay humble and stack sats

2025-08-04 18:32:49 UTC

“Paying off my mortgage gives me peace of mind.”
Sounds smart, right?
It’s actually one of the most expensive emotional decisions you can make.
Here’s why paying off your mortgage early makes you poorer (and less free).
A 30-year fixed mortgage isn’t a ball and chain.
It’s one of the best financial tools available:
✅ Fixed terms for decades
✅ Predictable payment
✅ Inflation eats away at its real cost
Time and debasement work in your favor.
Prepaying your mortgage locks up capital in bricks.
That kills:
❌ Growth
❌ Flexibility
❌ Freedom
And for what? A feeling.
Let’s look at the math.
Have $100K?
Option 1: Pay mortgage at 5% “return”
Option 2: S&P 500 (~10% historical)
Option 3: Bitcoin (conservative 20%)
After 10 years:
🏠 $163K
📈 $259K
₿ $619K
“Peace of mind” could cost you $500K!
And it gets worse:
Broad money supply (M2) grew 7% annually over the last decade.
Your “guaranteed” 5% return is actually a -2% real loss after inflation.
“But it makes me feel safe.” Nope.
You’re trading one risk for another:
✅ Less debt
❌ Less liquidity
Need cash? You can’t peel off a piece of siding.
You’ll refinance or sell...often at the worst time.
Smart money = options.
Keep the mortgage.
Invest the difference.
That gives you:
✅ Bigger portfolio that compounds
✅ Liquid reserves to cover mortgage if life happens
More liquid assets = more security.
FIRE + bitcoin is about freedom and optionality.
You don’t get that by locking up cash for your feels.
You get it by keeping your wealth working and outpacing debt.
Poorer isn’t safer.
This week’s FIRE BTC issue breaks down the full math and mindset shift:
👉 Why “peace of mind” is a costly illusion
👉 Why a mortgage is your friend
👉 How to build security without killing flexibility
Read the full post + subscribe here: https://firebtc.substack.com/p/peace-of-mind

2025-03-13 14:32:36 UTC

🧩 Is the 4% Rule Still Relevant for Bitcoin? 🔥
The 4% rule is the standard for financial independence. What happens when you factor in BTC’s explosive growth & volatility?
Can bitcoin lower your target number?
I break it down in FIRE BTC Issue 21.
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/is-the-4-rule-relevant-to-bitcoin

2025-01-27 13:49:16 UTC

- reply

Ok, I'm traveling this week but I'll try to get back to the range this weekend and get face on view.

2024-11-05 18:30:57 UTC

- reply

How so?

2024-11-05 18:18:51 UTC

Would you defend democracy if the democratic process votes to end democracy?

2024-10-18 15:43:54 UTC

- reply

Probably all of the above

2024-10-17 18:37:55 UTC

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?
We're about to find out.
https://m.primal.net/LYyS.jpg
https://m.primal.net/LYyV.jpg

2024-10-15 16:53:41 UTC

- reply

https://m.primal.net/LWqE.png
The trading fee discount that Unchained Signature clients receive just increased by 150%, from 10 bps to 25 bps!
This will save Signature clients big money when they trade with us.
In addition to reduced trading fees, Signature clients enjoy:
🔸Ongoing support from a dedicated expert
🔸Exclusive virtual and in-person events
🔸Accounts for all your personal bitcoin needs
...and a ton more...
https://unchained.com/signature
#note1trm…e3jz

2024-10-14 23:45:01 UTC

- reply

Lol rekt

2024-10-10 17:17:15 UTC

One more trip to $58k then game on

2024-10-08 14:19:45 UTC

Thanks to my man @npub1cj9…0efa for recommending FIRE BTC!
https://m.primal.net/LOtC.jpg
Here is the link to the inaugural issue of the newsletter. If you're interested in the intersection of financial independence and bitcoin, please check it out:
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/why-bitcoin-is-stupid

2024-10-07 17:18:27 UTC

There are two types of FIRE practitioners:
1) Those who have a meaningful bitcoin allocation and 2) those who don't.
Don't be a don't.

2024-10-07 16:40:42 UTC

It doesn't matter how much you make, you can always save and stack something.
10% is the starting point.
Pay yourself first!

2024-10-02 11:08:07 UTC

- reply

Agree. Walz was definitely more tolerable than Kamala!

2024-10-01 22:41:54 UTC

Pretty muted selloff considering WWIII just escalated...

2024-09-18 13:42:16 UTC

My theory is that Vitalik regrets the dogshit he created and has been working over the last few years to sink it.
#note1rs7…jesx

2024-09-16 14:47:28 UTC

- reply

Most shitcoiners hold bitcoin

2024-09-16 14:12:39 UTC

I hope Trump isn't using a brain wallet for his bitcoin.

2024-09-07 21:18:38 UTC

- reply

Ooh interesting...

2024-09-07 16:05:57 UTC

My gameplan for the next financial crisis:
1. Market panic
2. Bitcoin price crashes
3. Rates to zero
4. Max out HELOC
5. Smash buy bitcoin
6. Move to cold storage
7. Congress/Treasury/Fed print $17 trillion
8. Bitcoin goes to $6.15 million

2024-09-07 15:42:13 UTC

- reply

I imagine it has something to do with the fact that my nostr keys were created elsewhere and imported into Primal instead of generated there.

2024-08-29 14:35:14 UTC

If we are in the 4th Turning, there will be tons of opportunities for those who are prepared.
#note1x8e…3yyu

2024-08-29 11:11:18 UTC

GM ☕
Don't take the black pill.
Be optimistic and work to build the world you want.
🫡

2024-08-24 18:45:13 UTC

Coming soon to bitcoin country
https://m.primal.net/KLEG.jpg

2023-07-30 13:54:32 UTC

Embarrassing failure of an orange-pilling last night.
I was at a neighborhood party and a neighbor asked me about bitcoin. We talked for a bit and he asked me how to get some. I said I'll send you some right now and you can send me cash via zelle.
I tell him to download Phoenix wallet. So far so good. I fired up Strike, loaded up $100 and tried to send. Failure #1: the $100 apparently needs to clear before I can send it anywhere. First time that's happened to me and I use Strike somewhat regularly.
Ok, no problem, I'll just send it from my node. So I fire up @npub1xnf…lpr5 , scan the QR, and hit send, and it spins.....and spins......and spins......and spins......and then times out.
No indication of why it couldn't complete before timeout. I have plenty of overall outbound capacity, and no trouble connecting to the node. I guess my set of channels aren't well enough connected or the outbound capacity isn't in the right channels. Failure #2.
So at this point I'm really starting to look like an asshole.
Final attempt, I guess I'll try sending on chain from my node. So I ask him to switch to an on chain address and send the sats...success! Well, only on my side.
Phoenix gave him no notification of receipt and the balance didn't show up in his wallet until after it was confirmed. Failure #3.
Needless to say, this guy is probably not too impressed.

2023-07-25 11:47:57 UTC

- reply

Has Gensler made any comments on this?

2023-03-18 19:47:56 UTC

- reply

What makes it tricky?

2023-03-03 12:43:33 UTC

I'll be in Naples + Ft Myers next week for a couple bitcoin meetups. Anyone out there in the area?

2023-02-18 18:21:38 UTC

I once heard about a service that provides esim cards for international travel where you can pay with bitcoin. Anyone know about this who could help?