Cykros on Nostr: The Dashboard I'm getting data from is And I did say blocks during signalling ...

The Dashboard I'm getting data from is https://bip110.rip
And I did say blocks during signalling periods, not hashrate -- though it'd be weird if there was quite that big a discrepancy.

As for money and alternative use cases, I can't say that I follow that logic. Use cases do indeed cause there to be other impacts upon the price of money, but they don't reduce that value. Rather, they add demand (and using those things as money makes them less capable of responding to supply and demand in their arena, as we see with housing). The monetary premium may decline on a net percentage basis, but not on a gross basis. Someone using gold to make circuits doesn't detract from gold being used as money, but someone using gold as money sure makes it less accessible to be used as circuits. I don't concede that silver was demonetized by being useful industrially; I would argue the opposite -- silver got used industrially because it was able to be mined more cheaply. Fees could crowd out some monetary use, but I'd contend that Bitcoin as money has a lot more demand than jpegs do, and if it didn't, THAT'd be something worth reconsidering my whole framework around.

And regarding nodes, you're right that the notion of economic (merchant) nodes is not particularly one that can be measured just looking at them (especially because they're not exactly trying to broadcast that data about themselves anyway). It's more that the PEOPLE signalling that they will discard blocks matter. Whether through their own node, or by choosing to use someone else's node that does it for them is largely irrelevant. The leverage comes because miners care how much the Bitcoin they mine is worth -- they care a lot more if Michael Saylor is going to jump to another chain than they care if someone who is just holding a few thousand sats they got playing games on ZBD. Even though Saylor may not even run a node, and the ZBD pleb may have a full archival node with 100% uptime. One of them is putting significant demand on the finite Bitcoin the miners are being rewarded with; the other is not.

I'd also not concede that the price of Bitcoin has anything to do with BIP-110, Core 30, or any of that, at least in any recognizable form. The macro backdrop Bitcoin is operating in right now is night and day from the first 10 years of its life, characterized by quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus particularly in the early 2020s. The dollar is being constrained heavily right now particularly after the move off of LIBOR to SOFR, and while there is some balance sheet expansion (reserve management purchases) it's more as a pressure relief valve as the screws are put on the Eurodollar banks, rather than a turn around in overall liquidity. For what it's worth, I also don't tend to view the 4 year cycle as the best indicator, and have been looking more at Stephen Perrenod's math and modeling around harmonics relative to the power law trend, which, like the power law itself, operate in log time. The four year cycle seems built on the premise of the halvings, which simply don't have the weight they used to. Furthermore, they conveniently ignore the 2011 bull run, which Perrenod's work doesn't -- the fundamentals just make more sense to me, even if the math is admittedly a lot more to wrap one's head around. Getting to the point, his framework has us not in a bear market (or 2025 in a bull market) but rather this being some out of phase subharmonics, leading up to the first real bull run since 2017 coming next year. This may be a bit of astrology for men, and I'm not going around trading on it, but suffice to say I'm not sitting here wondering what's broken having expected the 4 year cycle to play out like it had. Even if Perrenod's work is nonsense, Lyn's pointed out quite well that any model that becomes apparent and trusted enough stops working as people start trading on it.

Anyway, I'm here less to throw shit at you and more to say it's not nearly as hopeless as your narrative has it or at least to share my perspective. Though yea, I'm not gonna promise not to be a punk about it ;-).