https://blossom.primal.net/aff33a1422820b878e4d78dc80f69e17f11365597b8aead5593bb83123b67317.jpg
Disclaimer: I am still a bit behind on the news each week, but I still want to share these insights with you.
In this post, I will share the recap for the period 03.03 - 09.03.
The recap of last week will be online by Friday evening at the latest.
On Nostr, I will exclusively share the most significant Bitcoin news. (this note)
For those (still) beyond Nostr—friends, family, and colleagues—the complete Weekly Recap will be accessible on my Bitcoin Friday page on Yakihonne. (next note)
Enriched with detailed charts, illustrative images, and comprehensive macroeconomic news to provide context and clarity.
Happy reading!
🧠Quote(s) of the week:
'Bitcoin mean reversion is a restoring drift. It is like a beach ball held underwater. The trend is the equilibrium. Price gets pushed around by news, leverage, liquidity, and panic. Important concept: But the farther it gets stretched from the power law trend value, the stronger the expected pullback. That is the logic of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process: dz = -κz dt + σ dW The first term is the restoring pull. The second term is the noise. Most people see the noise and think there is no structure. Wrong. Noise does not remove the anchor. It just makes the path messy. Bitcoin reverts because large deviations create stronger restoring drift. The path is chaotic. The pull is not.' - David Eng
(https://cdn.azzamo.media/905ae5768cc1bf72966747a155629976f55e7c620fa64cf8c3379d85b0e5c2e9.jpg)
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
Photos hosted by Azzamo ( https://azzamo.net/)
On the 3rd of March:
➡️Ray Dalio: "Bitcoin does not have privacy. Central banks are not gonna wanna buy Bitcoin. Quantum computing. Who owns it?"
Bitcoin's transparent ledger is a feature. Banks are already buying. Quantum is not an imminent threat.
> 'Dalio's mistake here is that he doesn't fully understand why central banks own Gold. The reason it is Gold is to protect against a speculative attack on their currency if Gold becomes demonetized. Central banks have always viewed Gold as a potential competitor to their sovereign currencies. Once Bitcoin reaches the same scale as Gold (it will overtake Gold due to its significant comparative advantages), central banks will be forced to own it for the same reason they own Gold. Without ownership, their national currency becomes vulnerable to a speculative attack from Bitcoin.' - Vijah Boyapati
➡️Bitcoin is up 2% while Gold is down 3.5% aGoldilver is down 8%. Feels like a paradigm shift. - Joe Consorti
➡️Important Point: Bitcoin has NEVER had its FULL, complete bull market EVER, while the PMI was below 50 the whole time. Which really begs the question: Was what happened over the last few years really a true bull market? Sminston coined the term "quasi bull market," and I think that is accurate. We have discussed this on the Bitcoin Uncharted weekly show. We had a bull market on a price basis; you could technically call it that, but with bear-market conditions in the backdrop. Hence, we had a quasi-bull market, or a prelude to a bull market. The full bull market is still to come.
(https://cdn.azzamo.media/f6904785e80b99a726ada0f1753e91f71e0a3cc30e959faed703bb014df35ed6.jpg)
➡️The Bitcoin ETF buyer cohort is sitting on their largest levels of unrealized losses, and I don’t think they care. They may be built differently. Watching for a big week of inflows despite being underwater.
(https://cdn.azzamo.media/672639451e9e7359fa6342502ca167cc65897a1b3bd10801930e70c6dfdbaeb4.jpg)
Vijah Boyapati: "The explanation is that boomers buy Bitcoin as a part of a diversified portfolio. They may buy 2 or 5% of their assets as BTC, so a big drawdown has little impact. Their position sizing allows them to hang tough essentially forever."
➡️'Bitcoin is replacing Gold. The model on the chart says: log10(Ratio) = -16.6829 + 5.7340·log10(t) with R² = 0.9593. If that trend continues: Parity with Gold around 2037 Implied BTC price ~$2.06M.' -David Eng
(https://cdn.azzamo.media/2cc4f2f343bef9e8804fcbd5aa78d857ca96a67bf7ba73f97e8e07e213aae773.jpg)
At the moment, Gold is stalling out while bitcoin is soaring. BTC is set to overtake Gold's % growth over the last month as the U.S. economy accelerates and risk sentiment improves. The anticipated risk-off → risk-on rotation could be underway.' - Joe Consorti
➡️'One more week until the 20,000,000th bitcoin is mined. The remaining 1,000,000 will take 114 years.' - Joe Consorti
On the 4th of March:
➡️'Since the strikes on Iran began, bitcoin has outperformed stocks, bonds, and Gold. Does that automatically make Bitcoin an undisputed hedge against geopolitical risk? Not by definition. Yet, so far, bitcoin’s price behavior resembles what we have seen during previous major market shocks. In my book, The Great Rebalancing, I examine the performance of equities, bonds, Gold, and bitcoin following nine significant market events since 2020. Both 10 and 60 days after each event, Bitcoin was, by a wide margin, the best-performing asset class. Gold ranked second, while bonds delivered the weakest results. Based on this admittedly limited sample, Bitcoin is not the anomaly. Gold is. If measuring asset class returns 10 and 60 days after a major market shock qualifies as one legitimate lens through which to assess bitcoin’s safe-haven characteristics, then the conclusion is at least open to debate rather than dismissal.' - Jeroen Blokland
➡️Fernando Nikolic: 'Wait a second… hold on.
The European Central Bank just published a paper warning that stablecoins could pull deposits out of the banking system.
Read that again… slowly.
A central bank is openly concerned that people might withdraw their money from banks and move it into stablecoins.
The very people running the monetary system are admitting — in their own research — that their product might be outperformed by a better one.
This is the music industry in 2004, warning that people might prefer MP3s over CDs.
The diagnosis is correct…
But the conclusion will be predictable: regulate competition rather than improve the product.
I’ve seen this playbook before at Universal Music, back in 2008, the threat assessment was always accurate…
The response was always protectionism.
And protectionism always loses.'
➡️'Another solid inflow day for the bitcoin ETFs. Almost all are now net-positive YTD. Amazing, considering it's down 22% on the year, a 50% total decline. Crypto Twitter: call your parents, tell them thank you, and that you love them, and that you totally underestimated their hands.' - Eric Balchunas
➡️Jamie Dimon: If you want to be a bank, be a bank
Kraken: challenge accepted
(https://cdn.azzamo.media/d8bf4895a4daebe1116303f7d280ccaa1f5ecf59b74e3bc2f2abab1fae288266.jpg)
Bitcoin exchange Kraken becomes the first crypto bank to receive a Federal Reserve master account. This makes Kraken the first digital asset bank in U.S. history to gain direct access to the Federal Reserve’s payment infrastructure. The same banking system that tried to choke out Bitcoin companies is now bending the knee.
➡️'The CFTC just announced it's fast-tracking approval of Bitcoin perpetual futures contracts in the U.S., targeting approval within the next month. Perpetuals are the single most traded instrument in crypto. Binance alone handles over $50 billion in perp volume daily. But since 2017, regulatory uncertainty has forced virtually all of that liquidity offshore. CFTC Chairman Selig said it plainly at the Milken Institute: "We've got to bring that back to the United States." The Commission is also promising clear guidance on on-chain markets and digital wallet regulations. This is a market structure shift. The U.S. has spent years pushing crypto trading to foreign exchanges with less oversight and zero tax revenue. Now they want the liquidity back, and they're moving fast to get it.' -TFTC
➡️Walker: 'If you bought $1 of Bitcoin every time Peter Schiff tweeted about Bitcoin (p~1,836 times since 2013), you'd have ~0.174 BTC today — cost basis $1,836, current value ~$11,500 (at ~$66,000/BTC), for a ~525% gain. If you bought $1 of Gold instead every time he tweeted about Bitcoin, you'd have ~0.45 oz — cost basis still $1,836, current value ~$2,300–$2,400 (at ~$5,070/oz), for a ~25–35% gain. Thank you for your attention to this matter.'
➡️Morgan Stanley issues new SEC filing for a spot Bitcoin ETF, announcing Coinbase and BNY Mellon as the custodians.
The key takeaway is: Morgan Stanley would not be launching their own Bitcoin ETF — in a world where 11 other Bitcoin ETFs have existed for 2 years — unless MS believes that Bitcoin will be a persistent % allocation across its wealth management client base.
➡️Daniel Batten: Paraguay has just followed the lead of Bhutan, using wasted hydro energy to mine Bitcoin, for a likely National Bitcoin Reserve. "Reports indicate mined Bitcoin will likely be held as a state asset or the national treasury, potentially used to fund infrastructure."
➡️Michael Saylor's Strategy is estimated to have bought over 700 Bitcoin so far today via STRC. That is more than the number of BTC that will be mined today.
On the 5th of March:
➡️A Bitcoin Policy Institute study tested AI agents across 9,000+ financial scenarios. What did they choose most often? Bitcoin. - Simply Bitcoin
(https://cdn.azzamo.media/37eb483f92fecf2e5600899d02e19d11d2721a69e358dd6e58ce4e750c07003e.jpg)
➡️Daniel Batten:
New academic paper demonstrates that pairing Bitcoin mining with greenhouses can: transform Bitcoin mining's waste heat into a resource for "advancing sustainable food production", while "enhancing food security" amid population growth "reduce reliance on fossil fuels, lower greenhouse gas emissions, and enhance the economic sustainability of food production" "reduc[e] energy consumption by up to 15%"
The paper is the 23rd to demonstrate the positive environmental impacts of Bitcoin mining.
Source: https://x.com/DSBatten/status/2007095059963949217 This paper was published in Applied Energy, which is a highly regarded journal in energy engineering, sustainable systems. It has an impact rating of 11.0, consistently ranking in the top tier in its categories.
Source: https://sciencedirect.com/journal/applied-energy Paper co-author Cornell Professor Fengqi You is a multiple award-winning scientist specializing in the fields of energy systems engineering, optimization, sustainability, digital agriculture, and decarbonization (source: https://duffield.cornell.edu/people/fengqi-you/)
Full Paper: Energy optimization of bitcoin mining integrated greenhouse with model predictive control - ScienceDirect - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306261925009869
more Daniel Batten:
➡️In 2021, a headline like this on the front page of a Pulitzer Prize-winning paper would've been unthinkable, but backed up by data from Cambridge, Duke University + 23 peer-reviewed studies showing Bitcoin mining's environmental benefits, the media have changed their tune also.
(https://cdn.azzamo.media/b728dce495fe4688c2142238d75c697816bf354d73e1f0d3224bca5ecf5c7045.jpg)
Little-known fact: 7 Nations (that we know of) are now using Bitcoin mining on their national, or State, grid to counterbalance the variability of solar and wind generation. This allows them to add more renewable energy to their grid than they otherwise would have been able to.
Japan, Finland, Sweden, Texas, U.S. (ERCOT), New Zealand (Monowai), China, Austria - a lesser-known one (https://carboncredits.com/is-bitcoin-mining-the-unexpected-solution-to-europes-energy-challenges/)
On the 6th of March:
➡️'Bitcoin funding rate is still in negative territory.' -Bitcoin News
(https://cdn.azzamo.media/5420d332510dd391ffbd6c35ddfe70c05c3a47903500697fc9e695f5c72841bf.jpg)
➡️'The number of Bitcoin non-zero addresses hits an all-time high of 58.5M.' -Bitcoin News
(https://cdn.azzamo.media/ba12d73201e93d66689ae8e651da629340a27e9e0bf001bfc22d4e6fe5b73b58.jpg)
➡️Wicked: 5.74M bitcoin currently sits in UTXOs whose keys or scripts are exposed on-chain. Next, I'll analyze how much of it is still being actively managed.
I'll define “actively managed” as either:
• receiving ≥1 BTC in the past year, or
• spending any amount in the past year.
(https://cdn.azzamo.media/a3ceba5ae491febe8540ac495ced1fd390e6a30202135a8b58b4e7891cdc0e10.jpg)
➡️'Alex de Vries took 3 years to be proven wrong about Bitcoin.
Ray Dalio only needed 3 days.
3 March. Ray Dalio: "Central banks are not going to want to buy Bitcoin."
Today, 6th of March...' - Daniel Batten
➡️'Kazakhstan central bank to invest up to $350M in digital assets; likely to include Bitcoin
>Will begin in April-May
>Total central bank FX reserves and gold = $69B
>Investment will come from Gold & FX reserves fund, not the sovereign wealth fund.' -Matthew Sigel
Source: Kazakhstan central bank to invest up to $350 million in crypto assets | Reuters
➡️TFTC:'Fidelity Digital Assets just published a research report arguing Bitcoin's classic four-year boom-bust cycle is over. Their core finding: Bitcoin's market cap hit $2.5 trillion at its October 2025 peak, but one-year realized volatility reached a new all-time low of 17 in January 2026. That's never happened this soon after new price highs in any prior cycle. The demand structure has fundamentally shifted. Public companies and spot ETFs now hold nearly 12% of the circulating supply, with most of that accumulation occurring after 2023. 49 public companies each hold over 1,000 BTC. The leading ETF reached $75 billion in AUM in under 2 years. GLD took nearly seven years to reach the same milestone. On-chain, MVRV has remained around 2x realized cap throughout this bull market. In 2013, it hit 6x. In 2017 and 2021, it hit 4x. If it reached just 4x this cycle, that implies a $4.5 trillion market cap and roughly $225,000 per BTC. Fidelity also created a new metric, the "Profit to Volatility Ratio," which has remained above 0.015 since late 2023, the longest sustained period of stability in Bitcoin's history. Even the February 2026 drop below $70,000 didn't break it. The implication: the 80% drawdowns and blow-off tops may be a thing of the past. What replaces them is a slower grind, higher with shallower pullbacks. Bitcoin is behaving less like a speculative bet and more like a maturing macro asset.'
(https://cdn.azzamo.media/05b514446d07ade680b2902042d7236182a573475d7c9d1dbf448aa0b37b4390.jpg)
Source: Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Over?
https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/bitcoins-four-year-cycle-over?ccsource=owned_social_four_year_x
➡️As mentioned below in the segment Macro/Geopolitics:
The world's most POWERFUL money manager just locked the doors. BlackRock's $26 billion private credit fund told investors: "You want 9.3% of your money back? We'll give you 5." Take it or leave it. That's $1.2 billion in withdrawal requests, nearly half denied. But this isn't just BlackRock. Blackstone's $82 billion credit fund just processed a RECORD 7.9% in redemptions.
Simon Dixon is spot on:
'The real draining of the swamp is converting your BlackRock Bitcoin ETF to Bitcoin in self-custody.
Same with Gold.
Same with Silver.
Drain the swamp.'
➡️In just 4 days, 20 million $BTC will be minted. After that, the remaining 1 million BTC will be mined until 2140. This is what true scarcity looks like
➡️Gold Stuck in Dubai Is Being Sold at a Discount as War Widens. Gold is being offered at a steep discount in Dubai, as the war in the Middle East grounds flights and hampers suppliers’ ability to move bullion out of the key trading hub. Many buyers have stepped back from new orders, unwilling to pay exceptionally high shipping and insurance costs with no guarantee of prompt delivery. As a result, rather than paying indefinitely for storage and funding, traders are offering discounts of as much as $30 an ounce to the global benchmark in London, according to people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be named discussing market information. Many shipments remained stranded on Friday, the people said, although some bullion had been loaded onto flights leaving Dubai from the middle of this week. (Bloomberg)
Dubai imported over $100B of Gold and became a global bullion hub. Now, traders are selling Gold at a discount because disruptions to flights, shipping, and insurance make it hard to move. That’s the difference between physical money and digital money.
(https://cdn.azzamo.media/4aa3c51310902ac73504510b9452f126090cf5d4dee6a592c89f09154a8da817.jpg)
➡️Update from VVD minister Heinen: the planned Box 3 tax will not be materially adjusted.
In reality, it has been little more than a political appeasement measure.
Source: Brief aan Eerste of Tweede Kamer - Wet werkelijk rendement box 3
https://open.overheid.nl/documenten/a9e9b56d-a358-43f3-aa3e-b803483e6dda/file
Bitcoin Jack: Remember when the Dutch said they cancelled the Box 3 unrealized gains tax, 3 weeks after accepting the law in the House? They did not. It’s going to the Senate with minor changes. Just a little distraction detour ahead of the local authorities' elections. The looting will continue.'
For the Dutch followers: Heinen verraste coalitie en ambtenaren met belofte vermogensbelasting aan te passen na ‘brede ophef’ - NRC
https://archive.ph/1KtNH
Anyway, buy Bitcoin, vote with your feet (if that is even possible).
➡️The Winklevoss have sold over 99,000 BTC since 2014.
Arkham Intelligence on-chain data shows the Winklevoss twins bought ~100k-120k BTC in 2013 (1% of supply) and now hold only ~10% of that (~11k-12k BTC, worth ~$1.3B). They've sold/transferred the rest—over 99k BTC—mostly 2018-2023 to fund Gemini ops and diversification.
Pledditor: 'The rate at which the Winklevoss twins have been dumping BTC has been accelerating. Not a good look when the exchange CEOs are rushing for the exits. Didn't they just IPO? Why liquidate personal BTC holdings when they can dump $GEMI shares?'
On the 9th of March:
➡️History has been made. 95.2% of bitcoin's total supply, some 20M BTC, have been mined into circulation. 114 years for the remaining 4.8% to be mined. - Joe Consorti
(https://cdn.azzamo.media/8e159447d0337f59a1610e8bdfe17adcabd0bf1dd4535d76e09ec8fd4a67f34e.jpg)
There are officially fewer than 1,000,000 BTC left to be mined. The vast majority of the supply is already out there, and most people still have zero bitcoin.
➡️Mark Moss: Bitcoin had 24% CAGR over the last 4 years, even though BTC's price is the same… $67k. How’s that? While Bitcoin's price is basically the same as it was 4 years ago, it ignores 2 things
1. Capital Deployment: most are paid weekly or bi-weekly and direct a % to investments, DCA.
2. Volatility is the DCA investor's friend: The magic here is that Bitcoin didn’t just sit flat at $67K for 4+ years — it experienced massive volatility in between
Let’s put some math and numbers here…
Let’s use a $1k/week DCA amount for illustration.
As Bitcoin started at $67k and then fell to $16k in 2022, there was a swing of over $109,000 between the low and the high.
That volatility is what worked for you: your $1,000 weekly buys scooped up BTC at $16K–$25K, accumulating far more satoshis per dollar than when prices were high.
Half of your total invested capital went into above $50K, but that only bought 25% of your Bitcoin. Meanwhile, just 30% of your capital deployed below $30K bought 53% of your total stack. That’s DCA at its finest.
(https://cdn.azzamo.media/6e4ad0577ded299a69874d739eea9fc6f83231a4d8a32d768b8a84fb0a5e5e38.jpg)
🎁If you have made it this far, I would like to give you a little gift:
What Bitcoin did: Bitcoin is Undervalued, But the Bottom Isn't In Yet | Rational Root @nprofile…7u6y @nprofile…j6zg
Is Bitcoin's four-year cycle still intact, and what does that mean for the next six months? In this episode, I sit down with The Rational Root to break down where we are in Bitcoin's cycle, why on-chain data is flashing bear market signals despite Bitcoin holding up through the Iran war, and what the bottom formation could look like from here. We discuss the shift from retail hype to institutional adoption, why OTC buying from ETFs and treasury companies dampened this cycle's price action, how gold and AI stole Bitcoin's mindshare, and whether passive flows from the likes of Saylor could prevent another leg down. Root walks through his key on-chain charts and explains why he thinks there's still a probability of one more drop before Bitcoin starts its next move up.
Click here: https://youtu.be/tBAA2TtoxWU
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin.
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan is **PocketBitcoin**, especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. (from now on, full KYC, so be aware)
> Use the code SE3997
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple. ⠀ ⠀
⠀⠀ ⠀ ⠀⠀⠀
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⭐ Many thanks⭐
Felipe - Bitcoin Friday!
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