SpyMasterTrades

linktr.ee/spymastertrades

S&P 500 (SPY) Analysis and Market Insights 📈 📉
Not financial advice.

Public Key

npub1y4zvljuf6lp035arr63w6wr2c5vf5x85s3njgdjcpmkzzhumqwwqdrlz60

NIP-05 Address

spymastertrades@iris.to

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsz23x0ewya0shc6w33aghd8p4v2xy6rr6ggeeyxevqamppt7ds88qpp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqxzu2tf

Publishing to

nos.lol

Author Public Key

npub1y4zvljuf6lp035arr63w6wr2c5vf5x85s3njgdjcpmkzzhumqwwqdrlz60

Show more details

Last Notes

2024-05-09 22:14:56 UTC

Bitcoin's #cryptocurrency market dominance has likely peaked.
While anything can happen, and Bitcoin's market dominance can certainly continue to rise, my charting suggests that there's a high probability that other cryptocurrencies will soon begin to take market share away from #Bitcoin.
One cryptocurrency that I am watching particularly closely is #Kaspa. Kaspa ( #KAS ) is a decentralized #PoW protocol that solves the #blockchain trilemma.
#KAS is the only asset that I have found with a price time series that turns the price time series of Bitcoin into a decay function when the former is plotted as a ratio to the latter on the highest timeframe. This provides mathematical evidence that KAS is out-competing Bitcoin as a store of value. As such, Kaspa is essentially just a more efficient Bitcoin.
Kaspa's competitive advantage over Bitcoin is occurring as Bitcoin itself is out-competing gold as a more efficient store of value.
In the coming years, it's likely that the price of gold will rise against fiat currency, the price of Bitcoin will rise against the price of gold, and the price of Kaspa will rise against the price of Bitcoin.
As always, this is not meant to be financial advice. Do not buy or sell any security because of this tweet.
https://m.primal.net/IFCR.jpg

2024-01-30 21:36:32 UTC

The RSI on the S&P 500 two-day chart has risen to the highest level since August 2020.
https://m.primal.net/HZtW.jpg
#SPY / #SPX / #FOMC / #Trading

2024-01-12 03:42:44 UTC

Reverse #Repos just hit a new multi-year low.
They're now back down to June 2021 levels.
The clock is ticking for the #Fed to pivot.
https://m.primal.net/HXbZ.png
#FederalReserve / #FOMC / #Pivot / #MonetaryPolicy / #RRPs

2024-01-12 01:45:28 UTC

This chart shows the dividend-adjusted value of SPY with monetary easing removed.
The real stock market performance has only now finally recovered from the 2020 market crash.
https://m.primal.net/HXbQ.png
#SPY / #SP500 / #Trading / #Investing

2024-01-12 01:27:42 UTC

#Uranium continues to break out of a log-scale #bull flag pattern on its quarterly chart.
By moving from below its EMA ribbon to above, and by confirming that the ribbon has flipped to support, a major trend change has occurred on the highest timeframes. A trend change on this timeframe represents a new supercycle.
Similar charts are appearing across the commodity sector, particularly when we measure commodity prices against the money supply. As such, these charts are an inflation warning. From here on out monetary easing will be met with increased #inflation.
https://m.primal.net/HXbN.png

2024-01-11 14:36:06 UTC

Ironically, Bitcoin's market dominance fell sharply when the spot ETF was approved. This means that the approval was actually more bullish for the market cap of other crypto, collectively, than it was for Bitcoin.
This may be due to the anticipation that the SEC will soon approve other crypto spot ETFs.
https://m.primal.net/HXXF.png
#BTC / #ETF / #Spot / #Bitcoin / #ETH / #SOL / #MATIC / #POL / #LINK / #BNB / #SEC

2024-01-10 19:58:31 UTC

- reply

They will either extend BTFP or pretend to end it and just increase repurchase agreements. In all outcomes, banks are fully supported by the Fed through increased fiat currency creation.

2024-01-06 22:19:06 UTC

This is why #Nostr is needed...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCyLiLPrmIM&t=16s
#SocialMedia / #Bias / #Plebs / #Nostriches / #Republicans / #Democrats / #Bitcoin / #Decentralized

2024-01-05 21:05:26 UTC

It's no surprise that the #labor force participation rate has declined during the era of excessive #monetary easing.
The faster new #fiat currency is created, the faster wage earners' purchasing power declines. This in turn acts as a disincentive to work (i.e. to convert one's labor into fiat currency that decays in value). It also acts as an incentive to leave the labor force and live off of financial investments, which hold purchasing power far better than wages. If financial assets inflate faster than #wages, eventually this becomes unsustainable.
It creates the labor #scarcity we are now seeing. Since the #unemployment rate does not include persons who are not looking for work, and this cohort of persons continues to grow, it falsely creates the illusion of a robust economy. However, economic growth is far from robust. #GDP growth is barely hanging onto the -2 standard deviation of its long-term mean. The #Fed obfuscates this low growth, even in its real GDP numbers, by using deflator metrics that dramatically understate the rate of new fiat currency creation.
Suddenly, this has become a problem for the Fed. With GDP artificially propped up and unemployment artificially understated, the market is demanding far more monetary tightening than the central bank is capable of providing without causing a liquidity crisis. Already a #liquidity crisis is inevitable from all the rate hikes that have occurred.
The central bank now finds itself having to navigate an impossible paradox: there's no way to continue engaging in excessive monetary easing while also containing high inflation. Yet, there's also no way for central banks to not continue excessive monetary easing while sustaining extreme #fiscal deficits and highly #leveraged financial markets.
https://m.primal.net/HWiB.jpg

2024-01-04 21:51:32 UTC

Severe stagflation will likely occur in the U.S. throughout the mid-to-latter part of this decade (and is likely to begin by the end of 2024).
This is a 6-month candlestick chart of the S&P GSCI (#SPGSCI) against the U.S. money supply (#M2SL). The S&P GSCI serves as a measure of commodity performance over time. When comparing it against the broad money supply, we can ascertain whether commodities are taking up an increasing or decreasing amount of money in the economy. This analysis, in turn, allows us to assess changes in the amount of purchasing power needed to buy commodities and downstream goods. When this ratio rises, PPI and CPI subsequently rise.
Currently, this ratio has formed a virtually perfect log-scale, golden ratio bull flag. Such a structure indicates a high chance that the ratio will break out. (I've highlighted the bull flag structure and its potential breakout track with a line and arrow in the chart). If a breakout successfully occurs, this ratio is likely to top out in the mid-to-late 2020s somewhere near the +3 standard deviation.
What makes the current situation so anomalous is that this bull flag structure has coincided with a deep yield curve inversion. As you may already know, a yield curve inversion is a reliable recession indicator. The NY Fed uses the 10y/3m yield curve inversion as a recession predictor. Over the past year, this signal has been blaring to the highest levels in over 40 years. A recession is overwhelmingly likely to begin in the U.S. by the end of 2024.
If a recession occurs while commodity prices are increasing against the money supply (as the money supply itself is increasing), this scenario will result in stagflation. Since this chart is a higher timeframe, log-scale chart, a breakout is likely to reflect strong and long-lasting inflation. In essence, this chart is a warning that severe stagflation is likely coming.
https://m.primal.net/HWaW.png
#Recession / #Stagflation / #Economy / #Finance / #Markets

2024-01-03 21:01:16 UTC

Commodity futures are forming a log-scale bull flag against the money supply on the 6-month chart.
If this bull flag breaks out, commodity prices will take up an increasing percentage of the broad money supply (#M2), even as the money supply itself goes up. In other words, commodity price inflation may get extreme once the #Fed pivots.
As you can also see, over the past couple of decades, commodity prices have typically gone down against the money supply, (which is largely what enabled central banks to engage in excessive monetary easing without causing high inflation). However, the tide is now reversing.
Since the yield curve inverted while this bull flag formed, the breakout of this bull flag is likely to coincide with the coming recession.
Therefore, one can reasonably interpret this chart as a #stagflation warning.
https://m.primal.net/HWTn.png
#aapl / #btc / #nvda / #trading / #commodities / #gold / #silver / #crude / #oil / #war

2023-12-30 20:54:20 UTC

By approving a Bitcoin spot ETF, the #SEC will facilitate mass adoption of Bitcoin, but it will also pave the road for banks to eliminate self-custody.
Portfolio managers will increasingly incorporate these ETFs into their #portfolio holdings, which will increasingly render #Bitcoin an established asset. This, in turn, will impair the government's ability to subsequently ban Bitcoin.
Nonetheless, there will come a time when the traditional #banking system fails, and the governments that are controlled by multinational banks will seek to impose a ban on the self-custody of Bitcoin. The mandate will be similar to Executive Order #6102, which banned the self-custody of gold in 1933 to curtail widespread bank failures. The very purpose of a bank is to #custody your assets for you, as this is how bankers siphon off your wealth to enrich themselves.
Thus, your ability to self-custody assets is a direct threat to the #banks and they will try to stop you from holding your assets in self-custody. They will use the government to compel you by law to send your Bitcoin to a #FederalReserve bank in exchange for fiat #CBDC or paper Bitcoin (shares of a Bitcoin spot #ETF).
This time around, however, bankers (and the governments they control) will be unable to stop the self-custody of #decentralized, permissionless digital money. We've entered an era where many digital assets are being held in the custody of decentralized protocols or #DAOs. These decentralized entities are not fully within the jurisdiction of any government and the protocols that govern their assets are not centrally controllable. This will become a major problem for banks because there is no entity, (no person, no corporation, no governmental body), that they can compel by force to turn over the assets.
Banks will soon discover that not only are they unable to control decentralized protocols, but that these protocols will replace them completely. The bank-led government crackdown on #centralized exchanges that we're currently seeing only increases the market share and utilization of #decentralized protocols. The more the government cracks down on cryptocurrency, the more decentralized it becomes, which counterintuitively makes it harder to regulate.
Governments will next try to use CBDC to prevent the convertibility of fiat currency into decentralized digital assets. However, this will not only fail in this aim, but it will further destabilize the #fiat system by dramatically increasing money velocity, which is an input for inflation. Although inflation will also increase because of many other causes (e.g. spiraling public debt), higher inflation will bring fiat currency ever closer to the hyperinflationary event horizon. The worse inflation becomes, the less willing ordinary people are to convert their #labor into increasingly worthless fiat currency. As a result, ordinary people will increasingly seek to convert their labor directly into Bitcoin and/or other perpetually scarce digital assets that protect purchasing power over time better than hyperinflating fiat currency.
Eventually, cryptocurrency and de-fi protocols will come to be viewed as the natural evolution of financial markets. By restoring hard money, through means of trustless, decentralized, and publicly auditable protocols, de-fi is paving the way for a more stable financial system that is not perpetually plagued by financial crises that are inherent to a trust-based system fraught with counterparty risks.
By creating a trustless protocol, the #Byzantine Generals' problem has been solved. For the first time in the history of financial markets, #counterparty risk has been effectively minimized. Counterparty risk is what has underpinned every great financial #crisis in the past.

2023-12-30 18:33:50 UTC

- reply

A #recession is likely to begin in the U.S. by the end of 2024.
The NY Fed put the probability of one beginning by May 2024 at 70%.
https://m.primal.net/HVwu.jpg

2023-12-30 14:46:51 UTC

- reply

Exactly right. Fortunately, there is no stopping Bitcoin. It will persist even despite attempts to restrict it. People who hold Bitcoin will move to whatever jurisdictions permit it, and in doing so, these jurisdictions will become wealthier.

2023-12-30 03:57:54 UTC

In the coming global financial crisis, many central banks will begin to adopt #Bitcoin.

2023-12-30 03:45:40 UTC

Jamie Dimon doesn't want mass adoption of Bitcoin because Bitcoin takes control of money out of the hands of the bankers.
https://m.primal.net/HVtz.png
#Bitcoin / #BTC / #Nostr / #BTCUSD / #Satoshi

2023-12-29 22:40:15 UTC

Reverse repos spiked as expected. Typical year-end window dressing. From here on out RRPs will rapidly descend toward zero.
https://m.primal.net/HVrc.png
#RRPs / #RPs / #FedPivot / #Fed / #FOMC / #MonetaryPolicy / #Recession / #InterestRates

2023-12-29 22:09:32 UTC

⚠️ The #HYG / #TLT (adjusted) ratio just printed a gravestone doji on the 4-month chart. All oscillators on this timeframe are as over-extended as they've ever been. A reversal is likely coming in 2024.
This is a major #recession warning. This ratio tops in the lead up to an economic recession, and it bottoms near business cycle lows. This chart is warning that we're likely near a major market top.
https://m.primal.net/HVrS.png
#Bonds / #Treasury / #Fed / #FOMC / #InterestRates / #AAPL / #TSLA / #MSFT / #NVDA / #Recession / #Stagflation / #Bitcoin / #Trading / #Investing / #Gold / #Nostr

2023-12-29 21:59:42 UTC

- reply

Correct, supply constraints (mostly due to deglobalization / economic protectionism / geopolitical conflict) will likely continue adding price pressures even as demand wanes, resulting in stagflation.
One great model for safe haven assets is Exter's pyramid. His model was created before the advent of Bitcoin, which is existed then would be on the same level as gold. Self-custodied Bitcoin generally has no counterparty risk, like physical gold.
Of course, not financial advice. Do not buy or sell any security because of my posts.
https://m.primal.net/HVrP.png

2023-12-29 21:54:16 UTC

Invesco DB Energy Fund DBE just formed an inverted hammer on the 6-month candlestick timeframe. This may be signaling a major reversal (though it won't necessarily happen right away).
#DBE's overall structure on this timeframe is a bull flag (shaded in red). Price has descended to and is appearing to find support on the EMA ribbon.
#Energy is likely to break out right as we head into a recession, which could cause strong stagflation.
https://m.primal.net/HVrO.png
#Commodities / #Gold / #Bitcoin / #Inflation

2023-12-29 20:26:51 UTC

Breakwave Dry Bulk #Shipping ETF tracks the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures.
Following the start of the #Israel-#Hamas war, it has jumped over 150% from its bottom in July.
This is not something you want to see right before #interest rate cuts.
https://m.primal.net/HVqo.png
#Commodity / #Inflation / #Recession / #Stagflation / #Trading / #Investing

2023-12-29 18:57:43 UTC

The McClellan Volume Summation Index reaches its highest level in over a year. It's now in extreme greed territory.
https://m.primal.net/HVqP.png
#SPY / #SPX / #SP500 / #Trading

2023-12-29 18:45:13 UTC

The S&P 500 has been experiencing bearish divergence on the higher timeframes since the Dotcom Bust.
Not even the insane monetary easing of 2020-21 and the corresponding stock market bubble were enough to break the down trending RSI trendline.
https://m.primal.net/HVqJ.png
#SPY / #SPX / #SP500 / #Trading / #StockMarket / #BTC / #Nostr

2023-12-29 18:44:03 UTC

We will likely see a spike in reverse repos tonight and a sharp drop at the start of 2024 due to window dressing.
#RRPs will likely descend to zero within the first several months of 2024. Subsequently, #RPs will begin to rise dramatically. This will mark a Fed pivot because it will cause a reversal in the total number of assets on the Fed's balance sheet ( #WALCL ). In other words, the Fed will soon be transitioning from obfuscated monetary easing to overt monetary easing. It will stop increasing the monetary base by unwinding #RRPs and start increasing the monetary base by winding up #RPs.
It will be after this point that #stagflation will become apparent. The charts continue to suggest that the coming stagflation may be the worst on record. Rarely do price pressures increase as demand softens, but this will likely characterize the coming recession. In a deglobalizing world, where countries are increasing the percentage of their #GDP that goes into destructive ends (conflicts) while GDP itself slows and debt balloons, a severely stagflationary outcome is likely.
What we're dealing with right now therefore is not just a business cycle rollover (i.e. recession), we're dealing with a supercycle rollover as well. The supercycle of generally falling interest rates over time is over. In the new supercycle, monetary easing and interest rate cuts will quickly be met with higher inflation.
https://m.primal.net/HVqI.png

2023-12-27 00:16:53 UTC

In the next recession the bottom of the graphic will occur... https://m.primal.net/HVSH.jpg
#Bitcoin / #BTC / #Stack / #Sats

2023-12-26 18:52:36 UTC

- reply

Well said. Indeed many do fully know how the fiat system works, and sadly many of them just exploit the system for their own personal gain. Bitcoin will change everything. Thanks for leaving a comment!

2023-12-26 18:24:50 UTC

Economists are totally stumped about why #consumer sentiment remains so low despite a 'robust #economy', but the answer may be simple.
Here's a chart of consumer sentiment with the #dilution of the #monetary base as an overlay (in red).
Consumers are feeling the pain of having their purchasing power diluted, and thus their sentiment is low. In other words, sentiment has been correlating with (real) purchasing power.
https://m.primal.net/HVRE.png
The #Fed has been using the #CPI to paint a much better picture of inflation than is actually occurring. The problem for the Fed is that even though it can try to downplay the real rate of #inflation, consumers are sensing that inflation is much worse than is being reported and this is being reflected in sentiment data.
With that said, if you think things are bad now, currency inflation is poised to get far worse in the years ahead as the ratio of interest on public debt to #GDP spirals higher...
Note: To illustrate the dilution of purchasing power I used the formula: 1/(WALCL-RRPONTTLD-WTREGEN). This formula represents the value of one U.S. dollar relative to the total monetary base. The expression #WALCL-#RRPONTTLD-#WTREGEN reflects the assets on the Fed's balance sheet that determine the monetary base.

2023-12-26 17:46:49 UTC

#Ether appears to be printing two gravestone dojis in a row on the 2-week candlestick chart.
If this pattern is confirmed, a retracement is likely at the start of 2024. The last time a similar pattern formed, #ETH corrected about 15%.
https://m.primal.net/HVQs.png
#ETHUSD / #Ethereum / #ETHUSDT / #ERC20

2023-12-26 17:40:46 UTC

The Regional #Banking ETF ( #KRE ) is currently testing the monthly EMA ribbon from below. Not out of the woods if price cannot overcome this important resistance level. During the Global #Financial Crisis, the monthly EMA ribbon acted as resistance. https://m.primal.net/HVQp.png

2023-12-26 17:12:56 UTC

Multiple bearish divergences are occurring on the higher timeframe charts of #SPY
This chart shows the bearish divergence that appears to be forming on the weekly timeframe. Notice that the weekly RSI is at a very important trend line.
https://m.primal.net/HVQi.png
Bearish divergences are also occurring on the monthly, quarterly, and even yearly charts.
#SPX / #SP500

2023-12-23 02:53:23 UTC

- reply

Think of it like this: When the Fed loses money that is the same thing as the Fed creating money. So in essence, this is just another obfuscated means of increasing the money supply. BTFP is monetary easing.

2023-12-22 01:38:01 UTC

- reply

Great question! It doesn't take on a different name after a downtrend (it's still a gravestone doji), but when it occurs after a strong downtrend it usually reflects capitulation because it can be a sign of renewed selling at any sign of strength. So if you see a gravestone doji after a strong downtrend, it's usually trapped longs trying to get out at any sign of strength to cut their losses.
At a market top, a gravestone doji is also just the higher timeframe version of a tweezer top. For example, a tweezer top on the 30-minute chart is essentially a gravestone doji on the 1-hour chart.

2023-12-22 01:16:36 UTC

- reply

A doji is price candle that forms when the price closes the trading period exactly where it opened. A gravestone doji resembles a tombstone, and when it appears there is a high chance that the price is about to fall, particularly when it occurs after a long uptrend. https://m.primal.net/HUrD.png

2023-12-21 19:19:02 UTC

The #SPY is still on track to print a bearish reversal candlestick on its weekly chart.
#SPX / #SPY / #SP500 https://m.primal.net/HUoZ.png

2023-12-21 16:38:59 UTC

The 10-year U.S. #Treasury bond yield is looking poised to close its 6-month candlestick with a gravestone doji.
This bearish candlestick formation suggests that yields will fall in 2024.
However, since long-term resistance is flipping to support, Treasury yields may resurge in the years ahead as inflation also resurges. The coming recession is likely to be stagflationary. https://m.primal.net/HUnh.png

2023-12-21 03:25:55 UTC

There will come a time when people work their entire lives to try to accumulate 1,000,000 Sats.

2023-12-20 00:43:31 UTC

Posted my first article on #Habla -- check it out!
https://habla.news/u/spymastertrades@iris.to/1703012658520

2023-12-19 02:12:01 UTC

The price of a #Satoshi is rapidly approaching half a peso in Argentina.
How much longer before Argentina realizes the worthlessness of fiat and makes Bitcoin legal tender? https://m.primal.net/HUTe.png

2023-12-18 15:03:12 UTC

A massive bearish shooting star is appearing on the quarterly chart of #SPY / #IWM
The tail of the shooting star tagged the peak level reached during the Dotcom Bubble (depicted by the black line in the chart).
It's likely that this ratio has peaked and is about to roll over. We may be at the start of what will be years of large-cap underperformance relative to small-cap.
This does not necessarily mean that the Russell 2000 will rally from here on out, instead it's a warning that the large-cap stocks that comprise the SPY have a lot to lose in the coming recession -- even more than already hard-hit small-cap stocks.
#SPX / #RUT / #smallcap / #mag7 https://m.primal.net/HUPZ.png

2023-12-17 21:59:40 UTC

Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (also known as #DAOs) have immense potential to disrupt Wall Street and the current multinational corporate system.
One of the biggest leaps forward will come when the means of production becomes increasingly controlled by DAOs. Wall Street is hardly prepared for a future where control of production is #decentralized.
Rather than owning shares in a corporation that can be traded and controlled by #WallStreet, equity ownership of a DAO can be established through asset tokenization, built using smart contract logic, which eliminates the need for Wall Street to serve as a middleman for transactions or as the custodian of assets.
Decentralization is already underway, with decentralized #finance protocols like #Uniswap and #AAVE already issuing tokens that in turn allow for decentralized control of their treasuries. Since these frameworks are built, in large part, on the #Ethereum network, #Ether will be increasingly demanded over time as the De-Fi space grows by orders of magnitude over the coming years and decades.
Most legal systems do not provide sufficient infrastructure for the formation and existence of DAOs. Thus, inevitably, DAOs will come at odds with centralized governance. Yet, it remains to be seen how decentralized organizations can effectively be stopped. Certainly, #CBDCs will become an important tool.

2023-12-17 04:35:09 UTC

A good trader is one who trades fiat currency for scarce assets.

2023-12-16 21:38:42 UTC

This is a terrifying chart of $AAPL
A gravestone doji is forming on the log-scale quarterly chart of the ratio of #AAPL and the risk-free asset (a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond).https://m.primal.net/HUDo.png
This gravestone doji is forming right at the +2 standard deviation of the log-linear regression channel formed over the entire history of this ratio.
From a conceptual standpoint, what this chart indicates is that there's far too much optimism in the market about Apple's stock for the yields on the 10-year Treasury to be as high as they are.
Indeed, earlier this year, there was more fear in the market about a default on U.S. Treasurys than a default on Apple's bonds. This should never happen.
A private company, no matter how great its business model, does not have the power to create money, as does the federal government. Therefore, no corporation's bonds should be perceived as safer than a U.S. Treasury bond. Yet, this is effectively what this chart is illustrating is occurring right now. In so much as this ratio has reached its highest standard deviation from the mean ever, the market is far too optimistic about Apple's stock price when there's so much fear about Treasury bonds (and the U.S. Treasury's ability to repay its debts).
Since the U.S. Treasury bond underpins the global financial system by serving as the (theoretically) risk-free asset, there's never an instance whereby extreme volatility on Treasury bond yields won't eventually transmute into increased volatility for riskier assets, including stocks.
Very rarely do you see a higher timeframe chart this extremely over-extended on a log scale. A chart like this is something one would expect to see at the end of a supercycle because a reversal on this timeframe could last for many years. While it's certainly very possible that Apple's nominal stock price may continue to reach new ATHs, this chart is as worrying as a chart gets from a long-term perspective.
I'm worried about the many investors getting trapped at this supercycle high. Too many people believe that the central bank has achieved a soft landing and that the #Fed will cut rates. Too many market participants are wrongly assuming that a return to monetary easing will cause tech stocks to balloon in price again, as happened in 2020-21.
The coming recession will be much different. This time around, when the Fed cuts rates, inflation will quickly resurge causing central bank monetary policy to enter a period of whipsaw (where rates are cut and hiked erratically due to stagflation, similar to what happened in the 1970s/80s).
Although the Fed will indeed begin increasing the money supply dramatically in 2024 (it actually already started to do this), be cautious in assuming that this money will flow directly into tech stocks. Instead, the newly created fiat currency will increasingly flow into commodities as they continue to take up an increasing share of the total money supply. Commodities will take up more of the money supply because of rising conflict, deglobalization, economic protectionism, climate change/the effects of a transition to sustainability, and aging and less productive global demographics.
I hope that time proves me wrong because if I'm right, a lot of people are going to be very disappointed about Apple's real performance in the years ahead.
#AAPL / #Apple / #QQQ / #Nasdaq

2023-12-16 20:52:50 UTC

Recessions and volatility spikes tend to occur when the SPY/TLT ratio plummets.
Right now, the #SPY / #TLT ratio is printing a bearish shooting star all the way up on the quarterly chart (each candlestick is a 3-month period).
https://m.primal.net/HUDc.png
Note how high this ratio has risen. It's nearly double the peak value reached in the lead-up to prior recessions. (The red-shaded areas highlight previous U.S. recessions).
Never has the S&P 500 been as overvalued as it is now when compared against the 'risk-free asset' (long-duration U.S. Treasurys). In fact, the S&P 500 is so overvalued that the sell-off in 2022 merely brought the Shiller PE Ratio down to about the same level as the peak before the Great Depression.
What concerns me the most about this SPY/TLT ratio chart is the unprecedented confluence of higher timeframe charts. The ratio is about to begin oscillating down on the monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, and yearly charts at the same time.
My conclusion is that the coming recession will likely last quite a long time, or that it will come in waves as occurred during the stagflation of the 1970s (when several recessions occurred within the span of about 10 years).
Although it's easy to believe the proposition that a soft landing has been achieved when the VIX is 12 and the SPY is near an ATH, be aware that higher volatility will ensue from the record-fast rate hiking cycle. There is always a long lag between when interest rates rise and when the broad economy is impacted.
Many charts continue to confirm that strong stagflation is coming. While I am a stock market bull over the long term, I remain convinced that an economic storm is coming.

2023-12-16 18:13:26 UTC

I feel sorry for those who post: "Bitcoin is going to CRASH!"
They haven't yet discovered that Bitcoin is hard money, and that a crash in the price of #Bitcoin can only happen if fiat currency, which is backed by nothing, is your unit of account.
https://m.primal.net/HUBf.png
They fail to realize that Bitcoin's 5,583,371,195% return against the dollar since 2009, represents the dollar crashing in value.
If Bitcoin's price temporarily comes down against the dollar in 2024, what's happening is that the dollar's ongoing crash against Bitcoin is taking a temporary respite.

2023-12-15 21:01:55 UTC

- reply

Love this!

2023-12-15 20:11:31 UTC

- reply

Enjoy your read. What amazes me about the advent of smart contracts is how they remedy one of the most common problems inherent to contracts in general: breach. Smart contracts either make it virtually impossible for a contract breach to occur or they otherwise algorithmically remedy the breach. In doing so, they largely remove the need for litigation.

2023-12-15 19:52:05 UTC

My stock market top indicator triggered this morning.
At the time it triggered, the indicator reached the extremely rare red level. Every time this level has been reached in the past, substantially higher volatility occurred in the following months. https://m.primal.net/HTxH.png
As for methodology, this indicator uses regression analysis on a volatility-adjusted stock market indices average. The red line is the mean. The highest level ever recorded was at the Dotcom Bubble peak when the value reached +2.1. Earlier today it reached 1.5, which is the highest level since 2017.
With low volatility typically occurring over the holidays, the indicator may go deeper into the red as we head into January. However, volatility typically increases in mid-January, and I would not be surprised to see some kind of significant sell-off as we enter that period.
#SPY / #SPX / #SP500 / #Trading

2023-12-15 03:01:09 UTC

- reply

Just finished watching. Great job on this! Love your content!

2023-12-15 03:00:25 UTC

- reply

When we get to $200k per sat, the US dollar will no longer be the unit of account. People won't be using dollars to measure the value of Bitcoin anymore, rather Bitcoin itself will be the unit of account.

2023-12-14 14:37:27 UTC

#SPY gapped up at the open, pushing the daily RSI over 80, the highest in over 3 years (since September 2020). https://m.primal.net/HTqC.png

2023-12-13 20:59:24 UTC

Today, the S&P 500 experienced an extreme event.
https://m.primal.net/HTmJ.png
During the #FOMC press conference, the #SPX briefly exceeded the Bollinger Bands' +3 standard deviation on the daily timeframe. This event rarely occurs, and only occurs during extreme market optimism.
The #VIX did not confirm the higher move-up as it created a higher low over yesterday's trading session while the #SPX created a higher high. The last time this type of divergence occurred was 6 years ago in November 2017, about two months before a significant #volspike (VIX went to 50).
The current S&P 500 environment remains consistent with the end of a business cycle when the Fed stops tightening and the market believes a soft landing has been accomplished because the ensuing recession has not yet started. More often than not the #SPX reaches new ATHs during this period.
So far in December, the VIX futures term structure remains in deep contango and the yield curve remains deeply inverted, both of which further confirm that we're at the end of a business cycle.
An economic #recession is likely to begin in the U.S. by the end of 2024. It will likely be stagflationary with inflation remaining high even as demand continues to cool.

2023-12-13 18:03:45 UTC

- reply

Excellent point.

2023-12-13 04:01:01 UTC

- reply

Don't trust. Verify

2023-12-12 23:42:18 UTC

- reply

It's a promising future!

2023-12-12 23:38:34 UTC

- reply

Thank you 🙏

2023-12-12 23:33:47 UTC

After using #Nostr for several weeks, one thing that has taken me by surprise is how there are very liberal and very conservative people on here, and yet they both share a sense of community and don't spend all day posting content against each other. Despite differences in political persuasion, they find common ground on here.
Now that I've seen this, I better understand how dangerous centralized control of social media is -- where algorithms continuously drive inflammatory content to users to keep them addicted to the platform. I find it ironic that a censorship-resistant platform is largely devoid of much of the inflammatory content that's present on censorable social media. One may have thought the opposite would be the case.

2023-12-12 21:25:12 UTC

A lot of people fail to realize this, but the price of Bitcoin in U.S. dollars is, in many ways, a real-time chart of de-dollarization.
The price of Bitcoin only goes up (when priced in dollars) because people are trading in dollars for Bitcoin. Those who trade dollars for Bitcoin with no intent to sell that Bitcoin for the foreseeable future ("#hodlers") are, by definition, abandoning the dollar.
Furthermore, the #LightningNetwork is creating a major market of #V4V exchange in which the dollar is no longer the unit of account. The unit of account is Bitcoin. People are increasingly exchanging goods and services for sats, the smallest unit of Bitcoin.
This is de-dollarization.
https://m.primal.net/HTfm.png

2023-12-12 20:58:17 UTC

Look closely at these charts.
On the left is 150 years of U.S. #stock market performance. Currently, the stock market is pressing against the +2 standard deviation of a log-linear regression channel applied over its 150 years of data.
On the right is the U.S. #GDP growth since 1947. It's barely hanging onto the -2 standard deviation of a log-linear regression channel applied over its 76 years of data.
Never before has the stock market been so deviated above its long-term mean while GDP so deviated below its long-term mean. Perhaps what's so surprising about this chart is that GDP is barely clinging onto its -2 standard deviation, but the market perceives GDP growth as strong and resilient.
What we're dealing with right now is a massive asset bubble that is being caused by excessive currency creation by the central bank. Asset bubbles tend to only get bigger. However, they also become increasingly hard to sustain over time as increases in the money supply result in increasingly smaller gains in productivity. The ultimate consequence is higher inflation, though central governments obfuscate this fact and use obscure tactics to delude the public into believing inflation is much lower than it actually is.
This is unsustainable, and it will eventually come to an end. In the meantime, get ready for many years of increasing inflation. Those counting on deep deflation will be deeply disappointed in the years ahead, as the only thing that will reliably deflate is one's wealth in the face of a perpetually increasing supply of new fiat currency.
https://m.primal.net/HTfd.png

2023-12-12 04:44:29 UTC

- reply

Interesting read. Glad you correctly pointed out 1933 as the year when the incentive system was dismantled. So many people incorrectly say 1971. In 1933, gold coins were taken out of circulation, and this was the major pivot away from hard money. Bitcoin indeed changes the calculus in a very profound way. Good job 👏

2023-12-12 04:34:52 UTC

- reply

👏

2023-12-12 01:12:43 UTC

The fiat system will die once workers demand #Bitcoin for their labor.

2023-12-11 21:53:30 UTC

- reply

Felt the same way when I joined. It's unreal not having an algorithm feeding you polarizing content. It's also great not to be in a political echo chamber.

2023-12-11 21:39:22 UTC

The Lightning Network and other L2 protocols are essentially analogs of financial derivatives in the #tradFi space, except they're far more efficient and resilient to liquidity crises by design.
Traditional financial institutions have always struggled to measure counterparty risk. Corruptible credit rating agencies, on which traditional financial firms rely, are a fallible means to measure counterparty risk.
De-fi protocols are public, transparent, auditable, and trustless. In a trustless system, there need not be a dependence on credit rating agencies to measure counterparty risk. As such, de-fi protocols introduce a more efficient financial infrastructure.
In the years and decades ahead, decentralized finance is going to outright replace #tradFi. Those who try to stop it will be faced with trying to stop the wheels of human evolution from turning.

2023-12-11 21:14:52 UTC

I've studied Bitcoin's price action for years and it is my strong belief that the most plausible course for its future price action is some variation of the hyperbolic growth model.
The extreme parabolic move will begin when hyperinflation sets in for fiat currency and central banks begin to adopt a Bitcoin standard.
https://m.primal.net/HTYv.mp4

2023-12-11 21:07:57 UTC

Genuinely interested in knowing the answer to this:
How many others get excited, as I do, when Bitcoin's price "crashes" because it's cheaper to accumulate more of it?
My impression is that anyone who truly understands #Bitcoin will understand that, over the long term, fiat currencies will continue to decay in value relative to it.
This is a long game...

2023-12-11 20:33:22 UTC

On its yearly chart, Bitcoin is poised to achieve its highest closing value ever against the U.S. dollar liquidity index.
https://m.primal.net/HTYk.png

2023-12-11 20:28:28 UTC

Whenever I see someone post that the price of #Bitcoin is crashing, I feel sorry for that person because they're still using fiat currency as their unit of account.
Only the people here on #Nostr will understand this. If I were to post this on other social media platforms, I would encounter people who vehemently defend fiat currency as though it is entitled to be the unit of account because they believe it to be sound hard money, even though it is not.
What these fiat defenders fail to realize is that their wealth is being surreptitiously confiscated each time the central bank creates more of the fiat currency that they're defending. The central bank uses a plethora of obfuscated monetary tools to accomplish this.
https://m.primal.net/HTYZ.png

2023-12-10 20:55:11 UTC

- reply

Wish I joined a year ago. Didn't understand #Nostr back then, now I do!

2023-12-10 20:23:44 UTC

- reply

Well said. This is very true.
X (Twitter) has become an echo chamber. First it was a liberal echo chamber, now it's a conservative echo chamber. Each side thinks the solution is the rid the platform of the other, whereas decentralization is the solution.
Thanks for having taken the time to share your thoughts!

2023-12-10 20:10:01 UTC

I've only been posting on #Nostr for just over a week and it's already feeling like home.
The feed on #Nostr is filled with quite a lot of positive content, which is the opposite of my feeds on other social media. It's refreshing to have a social media platform where there isn't some opaque, centrally-controlled algorithm that feeds you highly controversial and emotional content to keep you addicted.
Going to brainstorm ways that I can meaningfully contribute to the community here.

2023-12-10 04:37:56 UTC

- reply

Thanks. I look forward to contributing!

2023-12-10 03:58:53 UTC

When I posted on Twitter that I would be winding down my use of the platform to focus on developing content on #Nostr my tweet was met with the most hostility I've ever seen from my followers. Very rarely have I ever been faced with denouncement from the people who I thought supported me the most.
I am perplexed by how quick some people are to defend a centrally controlled platform. Perhaps my post was perceived as an affront to Elon Musk, which isn't the case. It was merely based on my realization that centralization of social media is the problem. No human is immune from bias, and thus content moderation, when placed in the hands of any individual, is always susceptible to bias and corruptibility. Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Since centralized social media are controlled by centralized governments, content moderation indirectly falls into the hands of politically motivated governments.
The original goal of my tweet was not to criticize Twitter -- I have gained so much knowledge and valuable real-world life experiences through Twitter and the people I met on there. Rather it was to enlighten my followers about the next step in the evolution of social media: Nostr, a decentralized social media protocol that possesses a unique ability to weather the vicissitudes of ever-changing political winds and to persist as a perpetual non-arbiter of truth.
To whomever on here who reads this, and who likewise understands the limitless potential of building a decentralization basis for social media -- alongside the decentralized monetary basis that Bitcoin is creating -- cheers to you for being the facilitators of innovation and evolution!
We need not worry about the resentment of centralized social media.
History will be on our side.

2023-12-09 22:17:06 UTC

✅ It's official now. After more than 15 years on #Twitter, I'm finally leaving...
Thank you @npub1sg6…f63m for championing this protocol and supporting the devs. At first, I didn't quite understand #Nostr, but now that I do, I realize the watershed change that it will cause in the years ahead.
https://m.primal.net/HTKO.png

2023-12-09 21:15:51 UTC

- reply

👏 Can't wait for this. It's time for objective truth to be restored and full decentralization of knowledge formation is the only way.

2023-12-09 01:57:16 UTC

I first learned about Bitcoin in late 2011.
Like most people, I bought into the #TradFi narrative that it was a speculative mania and the fiat system was sound and stable. It took me nearly a decade to discover that exactly the opposite is true.
I pray for those who won't make the same discovery for another decade, or longer...

2023-12-09 01:50:21 UTC

I struggle to understand people who are hardcore pro-freedom in every sense but who don't use #Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the freest, most censorship-resistant money that has ever existed.

2023-12-09 01:21:15 UTC

Here's yet even more evidence that #Bitcoin is going to become the global risk-free asset, as I described in my June 2023 TradingView
article.
Bitcoin achieves zero counterparty risk far more efficiently than does physical gold, in large part because of the decentralized nature of its ledger.
https://m.primal.net/HTEf.png
By the time most people realize it, not even their entire annual salary can afford one #BTC.
To read my full article on TradingView:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/0QFdVTt2-The-Bitcoin-Corridor/
https://m.primal.net/HTEg.png

2023-12-06 23:36:22 UTC

- reply

Excellent read. Thanks for writing this piece and look forward to your next. It's been quite a while since I've been this optimistic about the future of the internet.

2023-12-06 23:36:06 UTC

- reply

Excellent read. Thanks for writing this piece and look forward to your next. It's been quite a while since I've been this optimistic about the future of the internet.

2023-12-06 19:09:42 UTC

⚠️ Repurchase agreements are beginning to jump orders of magnitude.
The total securities purchased by the #Fed in the overnight repo facility just spiked to the highest level since mid-2020.
https://m.primal.net/HSlv.png
Even this massive spike will pale in comparison to the amount of securities the Fed will begin purchasing in 2024.
Get ready for a wild ride in the repo market.
The Fed has no choice but to create new currency as liquidity crises mount. This is simply how the fiat system works. There is no alternative but for the central bank to continue creating new currency out of thin air. As debt-to-GDP spirals higher, the amount of new currency creation will also spiral higher -- but to an even greater extent.
The fact that new currency creation is accelerating is part of the reason why the price of Bitcoin is surging right now.
https://m.primal.net/HSlw.jpg
As the money printer begins to heat up, so too does the price of Bitcoin.
#RPs / #RRPs / #Fed / #FOMC / #FedPivot / #Recession / #BTC / #BTCUSD

2023-12-06 13:36:00 UTC

Inflation is a hidden tax.
It allows the central government to usurp the wealth of workers unbeknownst to them.
By having immutable scarcity, #Bitcoin prevents central governments from levying this hidden tax.
$BTC compels such governments to be accountable to their citizenry and to levy taxes through the political process.
Therefore, when a government seeks to ban Bitcoin, what they're really intending to ban is its accountability to the people.

2023-12-06 04:01:40 UTC

Central bankers fear the day workers begin to demand their wages in #Bitcoin. They'll lose control of the money supply and their ability to manipulate economies by devaluing the proletariat's labor.

2023-12-05 22:28:29 UTC

#Bitcoin is starting to heat up.
Its weekly candles are now yellow on this heatmap chart.
In the last halving cycle, Bitcoin's price peaked at more than 6x the price it was when its weekly candle first turned yellow during that halving cycle.
Though each halving cycle becomes less extreme, even if we 3x from here we'll be up to ~150k.
#BTCUSD / #BitcoinETF
https://m.primal.net/HSfV.png

2023-12-05 21:51:26 UTC

The #IWM / #SPY ratio is forming a major shooting star pattern on its 3-month chart.
We're likely nearing the period when the S&P 500 begins to underperform #smallcap.
This is a warning for #Mag7
#AAPL / #NVDA / #AMZN / #MSFT
https://m.primal.net/HSeo.png

2023-12-05 15:32:05 UTC

- reply

Exactly! #Bitcoin is replacing #gold as the risk-free asset that forms the monetary base. Bitcoin is far more efficient because, unlike that of gold, its ledger is publicly auditable and decentralized.

2023-12-05 04:12:53 UTC

The S&P 500 is now at a major area of resistance against the money supply (M2).
$SPY / #SPX / #SPY / #SP500
https://m.primal.net/HSaB.jpg

2023-12-04 03:16:50 UTC

The surge in the price of #Bitcoin and #Gold is only just beginning.
The #Fed hasn't even yet pivoted back to (overt) monetary easing!
That will happen in early 2023 when #RRPs run out and the #Fed begins to flood the market with new currency via #RPs.
During the coming stagflationary period, #liquidity crises will cause market participants to scramble for assets with the least counterparty risk.
#Bitcoin (when private keys are held in self-custody) and physical gold have no counterparty risks, and thus their demand will go up.
Not financial advice. Do not buy or sell any security because of this post. https://image.nostr.build/99a004757b916e52b157818fc7cc0cffceb21f9d7dec05bafb098752facc4f85.png

2023-12-04 02:43:05 UTC

2023 performance
#Bitcoin #QQQ #SPY #TLT https://image.nostr.build/150956992040c8b3a7571a5d34f8567f0f7afd15906040246b3a3136e43a08f2.png

2023-12-04 02:23:44 UTC

- reply

Nice thoughts! Throughout history all real money has always been a commodity. Satoshi himself confirmed that Bitcoin doesn’t fail Mises’ Regression theorem.

2023-12-04 02:21:18 UTC

Here's the real reason why the SEC doesn't want a #Bitcoin spot ETF...
No one would invest in the fiat system anymore.

2023-12-04 00:02:45 UTC

Here's a seasonality chart for December and my market analysis for 2024 and beyond:
The S&P 500 has rallied throughout most of the year, and that trend is likely to generally continue into the close of the year. However, the yield curve is deeply inverted and the VIX futures term structure is in a deep contango. These indicate that we're at the end of a business cycle.
In early 2024, the Fed will likely pivot. Once reverse repos (#RRPs) reach zero, the Fed will no longer be able to continue balance sheet roll-offs at the current pace. Futures charts are already showing early signs of pricing in Fed cuts. Indeed, the U.S. monetary base is already reaching the highest levels since the Fed began tightening.
Stagflation, which is already occurring in some countries, will likely begin in the U.S. in 2024. Commodity prices, including gold, will break out as soon as central banks resume monetary easing. The slow deflation and disinflation that we've seen throughout 2023 have merely formed the flag portion of a bull flag pattern for commodities on the higher timeframe. Eventually, higher commodity prices will push up #PPI and the underreported #CPI.
Bitcoin -- which is a digital commodity -- will likely rally along with other commodities. Bitcoin's #S2F and market cap will surpass that of gold in the coming years, as it continues its trajectory of becoming the new risk-free asset and the unit of account. By late 2024 and 2025, altcoins will begin to outperform Bitcoin as they typically do at that stage of the halving cycle.
Continuing jobless claims in the U.S. are beginning to break out. In prior business cycles, the Fed has usually begun cutting rates before jobless claims break out. This time around, the Fed has hiked us right into a breakout. Given the lagging effect of monetary policy, the Fed has positioned us well for higher unemployment rates in 2024 and beyond.
Severe stagflation is likely coming. During this period, geopolitical conflict becomes more likely. In turn, increasing geopolitical conflict can worsen stagflation as countries share less of their scarce resources by imposing export restrictions, and as countries allocate a higher amount of their GDP into destroying the means of production of other countries, making all countries worse off.
Not financial advice. Do not buy or sell any security because of this tweet.
https://void.cat/d/T724t5XPw3nvxeJRbtPVd1.webp