BitcoinAlchemist
James Pierog

New markets on bitcoinprediction.market
Will the U.S. declare war on Iran in 2025?
Will Israel declare war on Iran in 2025?
Monetize your knowledge and help forecast the future by placing a bet on the most likely outcome.
https://image.nostr.build/1e4f2f57a20a0359dc8333e973e298b7e76725453ba50f4cd105a02390c9dd8d.png https://image.nostr.build/13981437265fac19be221f157b6678aa7e55f7e173f6769365126b52254421fe.png

2024-10-25 15:11:27 UTC

- reply

Founder here. Yeah you can’t exit the bets, it’s similar format to a horse race. If you bet correctly we’ll send you a payout to your lightning address, after overwhelming consensus is reached as to who is elected. I’m guessing there will be some conflict after voting is done, so we’ll wait to resolve until after news media + polymarket resolves.
We’re currently building a mechanism to trade shares with Bitcoin (on-chain + Lightning). Then we can list events that are much further in the future, which is what I’m personally excited about.

2024-10-22 16:49:24 UTC

Bitcoinprediction.market election odds:
Trump: 69% chance
Harris: 41% chance
7 million sats bet (~$4.6k USD) so far
https://m.primal.net/Lefa.jpg

2024-10-20 07:26:23 UTC

Prediction markets are thinly disguised opinion markets.
The bets people place are akin to speech, reflecting the formatting of their consciousness.
Their predictions of the future are really projections of their individual reality.
Currently the most popular prediction markets (politics and sports) are the ones where people have the most strongly-held opinions.
It’s about feelings not about facts.

2024-10-19 10:13:58 UTC

- reply

I dunno probably because people like yourself didn’t arb it yet

2024-10-19 07:20:02 UTC

If you think Trump is going to win, you can stack more sats by betting against Kamala than by betting on Trump.
94% ROI betting against Kamala vs 66% ROI betting on Trump
http://bitcoinprediction.market https://image.nostr.build/5f5f6f3f05c296fd56e81e4d5536aa2604a6cbd44c92bfbaa587345e23df2c2e.png https://image.nostr.build/30d5cc5dd8e4970b14e22b40979fa9fe74ddba1421f2f54cee5500e3bf268b65.png

2024-10-19 07:19:07 UTC

New market dropped. Bet on Pennsylvania elections. The earlier you bet the better your odds.
http://bitcoinprediction.market https://image.nostr.build/256eec7195334094bea956074761e9b6fe5cebe7047d71c283773564ae77e19e.jpg

2024-10-18 08:06:55 UTC

- reply

I’d only vote if its with sats

2024-10-18 07:37:16 UTC

- reply

Try creating a prediction market with Stripe API integration and you’ll see very quickly how you get censored.
Bitcoin enables transactions to flow freely, thereby resisting the censorship from those who do not want the payments to flow.
Prediction markets by design must be centralized. The whole point is to elicit and aggregate information so as to forecast the future. Centralization is baked in, but since we are using base layer Bitcoin, we can offer this service, and resist censorship.

2024-10-18 06:00:26 UTC

Got an event you want to bet on? Propose new topics for Bitcoin Prediction Market here: https://t.co/2pn5AxLB3N

2024-10-17 20:20:44 UTC

- reply

What is there to say that hasn’t already been said

2024-10-17 18:15:56 UTC

- reply

Tea > Coffee

2024-10-17 17:50:13 UTC

- reply

Look through the replies here
Some of that shit should be censored
#note1qqq…n7y6

2024-10-16 14:05:48 UTC

- reply

Nostr at the “they fight u stage” right now and the solution is censorship.
Rethink your position on “censorship resistant” nostr. I know you come with good intentions but are paving the way for hell. Totally free freedom technology is not what you want.

2024-10-16 12:33:35 UTC

- reply

You’ve probably already seen it, seeing as you’ve reposted his post

2024-10-16 12:32:50 UTC

- reply

Take a look through the replies to fiatjafs call for censorship… there are some really bad people using nostr for really bad things…

2024-10-16 08:00:21 UTC

I totally take back what I said here.
#note1jur…4n47

2024-10-16 07:19:59 UTC

So nostr is finally getting attacked…
I wonder for how long this has been going on…
I also wonder if nostr will survive or if it will be subverted and undermined…

2024-10-16 07:03:45 UTC

- reply

You’re retarded if you think nostr should be a home for pedos. The cp thats posted on nostr is an attack and relays need to censor or else it will metastasise further. Do not enable child abuse.

2024-10-16 06:49:30 UTC

- reply

Yeah but like there are pedos posting cp… check some of the replies to fiatjafs post there… Not good stuff…
Nostr has got to start censoring some stuff either at app level or relay level because if nostr becomes associated with cp then it could all get shut down…
Like either we deal with this problem or the state does after we allow it to grow…
I support spreading the truth without censorship (like wikileaks). I do not support cp, and I’d like that to be removed from this network.
We need to be more clear about the objectives we want from this platform.

2024-10-16 03:02:03 UTC

Bitcoinprediction.market now has a graph to visualise event forecasting.
The market is bullish on a Trump win.
https://m.primal.net/LXJZ.png

2024-10-15 12:47:52 UTC

The Bitcoin community has some of the most passionate haters in the world.
The purity test and virtue signalling has stifled much creativity in the space.
Don’t build products for Bitcoiners, build products for people who want to use Bitcoin.

2024-10-14 18:56:02 UTC

Benefits of a Bitcoin-based prediction market:
1. Censorship resistance: unstoppable bets and rewards
2. Privacy: no need for an account, just a lightning wallet
3. Hard money: bets are denominated in sats, not fiat
Adding nostr in the mix can enable opt-in identity and crowdsourced events.

2024-10-14 15:09:12 UTC

- reply

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPfoFHQfHAw

2024-10-14 15:07:28 UTC

https://m.primal.net/LVrN.jpg

2024-10-14 12:01:54 UTC

- reply

What would you suggest? We're open to ideas. We were thinking:
- elections
- sports/esports
- central bank interest rates
- bitcoin price
- geopolitical events (war/conflict)

2024-10-13 15:11:20 UTC

You can bet with sats on the US election and other events on bitcoinprediction.market

2024-10-12 13:20:30 UTC

I now see how ecash could actually be a great solution to enable private and anonymous prediction markets with Bitcoin + Lightning.

2024-10-08 17:00:56 UTC

- reply

Nostr needs a capital incentive baked into a product that can deliver a 10x order of magnitude improvement that current technology cannot provide. Clones of existing apps don’t deliver a substantial UX improvement for the vast majority of users. The nostr product that will go viral with normies is a product that is fresh.
In my opinion decentralized prediction markets over nostr create that capital incentive that is an order of magnitude improvement on centralized prediction markets. The improvement is obvious: anyone can ask a question and provide liquidity to bet (with Bitcoin, not a shitcoin). In centralized implementations only the prediction market operator can ask questions and provide liquidity according to LMSR. Decentralizing that opens the flood gates to anyone asking any question they want and enabling people to trade on those outcomes.
The difficulty with prediction markets over nostr is implementing trust minimized contracts/share issuance and redemption in event outcomes. It’s a hard technical problem, which is why we don’t currently have an implementation, but it’s possible to do.

2024-10-06 03:47:22 UTC

see past the veil only to witness another illusion
https://m.primal.net/IvfU.png

2024-10-06 03:21:28 UTC

me on nostr talking about nostr https://image.nostr.build/99e893f7f45e07042dd96b3216d2af35abd8e962ebc488077e3669546c0729b0.jpg

2024-10-05 12:31:36 UTC

The bottom of one rabbit hole is the entrance to another https://image.nostr.build/009af073159e45766ec6f38775519b50ef9e83f012af86586d9051021cb172e2.jpg

2024-10-03 17:40:28 UTC

- reply

I’m trying to see some spicy hot takes on this censorship resistant protocol

2024-10-03 10:38:19 UTC

Call me crazy but I haven’t yet seen a single post on nostr that would get censored on twitter

2024-10-02 21:03:40 UTC

- reply

Definitely not cashu. Custodial is a honeypot that’s begging to be shut down. Ecash is completely centralized, antithetical to the objective of decentralized prediction markets.
DLCs need a transfer mechanism, but it’s definitely possible, just technically complex. Just lock the share cost amount of sats in DLCs with an AMM counterparty, and can trade the conditional payment with that transfer mechanism.
L2s would be a cheat code by reducing trust assumptions, could suffer from same centralization risks as ecash. I’d rather use Liquid than cashu because at least theres native limit order books and the ability to create tokenized shares.

2024-10-02 09:11:11 UTC

- reply

Why not respected? Are they using the free and permissionless internet protocol differently than how others want them to use it?

2024-10-02 09:01:50 UTC

- reply

You suffer because you disagree with the fundamental nature of reality. People change, deal with it.

2024-10-02 08:55:49 UTC

- reply

It could also be cool if notes were ephemeral, like the endless present moment that we all coexist in. Permanence is an illusion, and everything created will eventually be destroyed. Change is the only constant, and embracing that notion could enable freer discussion, where we don’t need to be tethered to the ideas we attached ourselves to in the past.

2024-10-02 07:28:28 UTC

- reply

Which clients allow users to request content deletion? Would love to try them out. I’ve been feeling that lack of content deletion is missing UX for nostr based social media for some time.

2024-09-30 18:11:40 UTC

- reply

The majority of hashrate mines for profit. It’s not about what should be, but about what is. It is the case that most large miners are energy arbitrage plays, or ways to mine shareholders in public markets.
Pubcos will absolutely remain compliant, or else they can’t use the ATM to mine their shareholders. That means complying with OFAC sanctions regulation.
I love the bitaxe movement and it enables individuals like you and me to participate in the mining ecosystem, but the problems of censorship on Bitcoin are far bigger than what any of the bitaxe miners can actually solve.
I agree that it should be a norm, but I also see the reality that it isn’t a norm, and changing behaviour en masse is extremely challenging. The elites needed to use many PR tricks to scam the sheeple into injections and mask wearing. That level of behaviour change requires a massive propaganda campaign, which is something not in the budget of an open source movement.
The state has already broached the plan of a feather fork and high level policy circles are talking about it. Bitaxes don’t solve this—it’s an absolutely real threat to base layer censorship resistance, and the tornadocash/samourai wallet trials are setting the precedent to enable the state to fuck the pools and the miners so hard that they mine compliant blocks.
The way we overcome this is +30% of global hashrate distributed across many small and non-compliant pools to make it more difficult for policies like this to be enforced. Bitaxes can be a part of this for sure, but they will be a small part of what needs to be hundreds of exahash to overcome this scale of an attack.
https://youtu.be/jiNo-T71FLk?si=gPrEzu75Gn6c9Pfw

2024-09-30 17:23:18 UTC

- reply

Mining pool game theory for censorship resistance is non-trivial. Your bitaxe or army of bitaxes will not stop compliant pubcos and pools from orphaning your blocks filled with blacklisted transactions.
For that you need substantial hashpower (+30% of global hashrate) to ensure non-OFAC compliant transactions are able to be settled.
That means big international miners cooperating to resist censorship, and big pools resisting censorship. It’s not as simple as virtue signalling with a desktop toy if you are actually considering the ramifications of state censorship of the base layer.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=312668.0

2024-09-30 16:39:24 UTC

- reply

Pools are centralized trusted third parties at the end of the day.
Ocean needs a good narrative to convince miners to switch pools, as there are already quite a few well-capitalised pools offering guaranteed and consistent FPPS payouts.
I don’t think diversity of pools is a bad thing, but the narrative that Bitcoin would be more decentralized if everyone mined for ocean (or any other pool for that matter) is simply not true.
Decentralized = many small independent pools (offering PPLNS payouts because they are more sustainable and incentive compatible)
The only way we achieve that decentralization of hashrate long term is if more pools like Ocean pop up and miners use them. But Ocean isn’t decentralizing hashrate by offering this new service, its decentralizing hashrate through its very existence by offering miners another pool to use to reduce their payout variance.

2024-09-30 11:48:55 UTC

- reply

StratumV2 is better than stratumv1 for sure, but fundamentally the pool can always reject the block templates. I think it would be good to crowdsource block template generation, and Demand pool is pushing the boundary in that regard. Giving miners the responsibility means the state needs to go after more people to enforce censorship, which can make Bitcoin more censorship resistant.
But still if the pool can reject the block template or withhold payment, they’re still trusted third parties. I don’t think this is a bad thing though. Big trustless pools open themselves up to block withholding attacks, but small trusted pools have less of an attack surface. More small trusted pools across more jurisdictions means miners have more choice, and means the state must attack more pools and miners if it tries to censor Bitcoin.
Anything that we can do to make Bitcoin more resilient should be done.

2024-09-30 10:27:38 UTC

- reply

Yeah in 8-12 years I think if price does not substantially increase so as to enable more miners to be profitable, and if fees remain similar to current day, then miners and pools are in for some trouble. Power law correlations are bullish for price, but also demonstrates how hashrate will grow proportionally, thereby impacting the variance for all miners and pools.
Only the strongest most efficient miners with lowest energy costs will survive, or they need to diversify their strategies to generate revenue. They must maximally squeeze all value out of their hashrate and minimise their costs to stay profitable. I also imagine further consolidation by pubcos and other large private miners that are closer to the money printer than the plebs miners.
The consolidation of hashrate and increasing regulatory scrutiny on Bitcoin does not bode well for censorship concerns. A substantial proportion of hashrate mining OFAC compliant blocks might doom Bitcoins censorship resistance, hence why innovation in this area is necessary.
More smaller independent pools that are globally distributed and ideologically leaning towards a censorship resistant Bitcoin is the only solution. Pools are trusted third parties that can be pressured by the state, so the more of them that exist in diverse jurisdictions the better.

2024-09-30 08:34:39 UTC

- reply

Yeah the exponential diminishing of the block reward means that FPPS becomes an unviable reward sharing scheme (even within 8-12 years people are thinking). FPPS is great when block rewards are large, but if volatile tx fees become a sizeable portion of miner/pool revenue then PPLNS becomes the best pool payout system.
FPPS works because the pool can anticipate future block rewards and average out the reward per share, but when future rewards become unpredictable then FPPS becomes unpredictable.
PPLNS is great because it maximally reduces variance while maintaining a no-deficit policy for the pool: miners only get rewarded when the pool finds a block. Pools don’t need to anticipate rewards, they just share the reward with the miner after they receive the reward.
FPPS is the major liquidity driver of mining pool centralization as all miners and pools want to reduce the variance of their hashrate with consistent guaranteed payouts. When the payout per share becomes volatile, then all miners and pools gain exposure to variance risk, and smaller pools can become more tenable for larger miners.
Until then, everyone will be drinking the FPPS kool aid until the pools can no longer maintain those payouts.

2024-09-30 07:42:19 UTC

Mining pool centralization is fundamentally caused by capital centralization.
Miners use pools to reduce their variance, and pools mine for other pools (as proxies) to reduce their variance.
Mining pools will only become decentralized if the capital to reduce payout variance becomes decentralized.
Until then variance based pooling pressure will cause further hashrate aggregation into megapools that threaten the censorship resistance of Bitcoin.

2024-09-30 07:36:18 UTC

- reply

> censorship resistance
> happy feelings
Choose 1
Assange/Wikileaks didn’t fight battles with the global elite for years for us to feel happy knowing we won’t get censored for saying gm
Either nostr remains happy feelings internet place or it actually becomes a foundational freedom technology used to fight oppression and resist authority
If it were used as empowerment tool for those under the grips of powerful authorities, then nostr would look very different

2024-09-29 19:03:48 UTC

Free and open prediction markets on nostr are the main potential freedom tech application that can elevate the collective consciousness of humanity.
Censorship resistant speech + censorship resistant money
Fugazi twitter is not gonna cut it
V4V podcasting and music players are not gonna cut it
Censorship resistant speech means you should be able to say whatever and not be censored
Censorship resistant money means you should be able to pay whoever and not be censored
If we are not pushing the bounds on both of these, then we’re not actually making a difference
Resistance technology first requires the will to resist the power structure that binds you to your current consitions

2024-09-29 18:56:41 UTC

Metaverse is the stupidest application of nostr, and it was mentioned at nostrasia as well as an innovation to look forward to. Metaverse is absolutely the wrong direction, worse than a shitcoin memecoin grift.
Sounds more like a kindergarden toy diverting attention from the wikileaks level cypherpunk origins of freedom technology
This is what happens when web devs just project fantasy ideas of what they think is cool, rather than building what people need to push freedom forward
This is what happens when devs are disconnected from the injustice and inhumanity of those in power—they build useless toys that are meant to placate adult children larping as freedom fighters #note18sl…3nge

2024-09-29 18:50:57 UTC

- reply

The greatest censorship threat on nostr is the self-censorship circlejerk of the echo chamber itself
Rather than build freedom tech people are building stupid social crap tech to say gm

2024-09-29 05:42:28 UTC

- reply

Destiny for freedom tech: doomed to fail or devs go to jail. Look at samurai, tornado cash, silk road, wikileaks, and any attempt of digital currency before Bitcoin.
If nostr does not grow and is not a threat to elites then all this talk is hot air to make ourselves feel like we’re doing something important.
The theory doesn’t matter if what we’re doing doesn’t matter. Nostr is a bunch of plebs saying gm and trying to make a friendly social atmosphere not actually an attempt to empower ourselves by undermining those with real power (like wikileaks). Your talk of censorship resistance is all theory until someone tries to censor.

2024-09-29 04:55:52 UTC

- reply

Man I’d love to see caves like that. Incredible formations, and all natural.

2024-09-28 19:07:28 UTC

- reply

Play the victim instead of have a conversation sure
Eat my shoe you clown, you’re literally just larping like a fool

2024-09-28 19:05:15 UTC

- reply

Before starting Bitcoin Prediction Market my co-founder and I were iterating through a few variations of social/art/music betting webapps, which are no longer online. We tried gamifying the music/art/money interaction so as to take it a step beyond tipping, which many already had links for (paypal, buy me a coffee, pateron, etc). In gamifying the UX we thought we could make the money component more interesting.
We talked to hundreds of music producers and artists and they were intrigued at the idea of receiving money, but none were interested in actually participating in a v4v economy. Their main objective was more views and more fans—they wanted to publish to the widest possible audience and gain as much reach as possible.
Legacy music industry has convoluted publishing rights deals, and it gets even worse with labels. Artists are mostly chasing after fans because most people don’t care about their music anyways. Even big producers who got tiktok famous are not interested in a few sats here or there. They either want collabs with more famous artists (signed with labels and have convoluted publishing royalty deals) or they want to promote their music and get more views.
Beatstars and airbit already sell the dream of licensing beats so producers can make a living (and artgrab/redbubble does for artists), and some are succeeding. If u have over 1m listens per month spotify cheques can sustain you as a solo/small artist.
When we tried communicating the new digital economy pitch these artists really didn’t care. They saw the current internet as that new digital economy that already existed. I was even making money off my beats from beatstars way before v4v was a thing. Creator economy is run on paypal.
The worst thing is when these artists said adding money convoluted the art and made it all about money. At the end of the day they r in the business of making art or music because they love art or music, not because they love money… They just want to make enough to do what they love, and that comes by creating a business. Unless they can find customers (fans or other artists willing to license their stuff) then u can’t make money as an artist, and it’s just a hobby u do for the love of it…

2024-09-28 18:49:30 UTC

- reply

I wish that was me haha
I think there are some huge selenite caves in Mexico, which is where the picture is from

2024-09-28 18:48:24 UTC

- reply

https://image.nostr.build/ebffe75881de1afd06f1e13614fa1b10663ed0f80ed6506a215e90a1697fb6e3.jpg

2024-09-28 18:44:47 UTC

- reply

Sounds like you’re offended. How about let’s start with why you believe everyone should switch to v4v if the vast majority of creators don’t know about it and don’t care.
I’ve put a lot of effort into trying to onboard artists and music producers onto different platforms and I’ve actually received their feedback. They don’t care. They mostly want to make art or music and share with the widest possible audience.
Where’s your proof of work besides being inspired by a podcaster?

2024-09-28 18:40:07 UTC

- reply

Why don’t you get off your ass and try to onboard real users. Then you’ll see how hard it is to change people’s mind when it comes to the social platforms they use. Your talk is cheap. It reflects your lack of experience in actually building product and talking to users.

2024-09-28 18:38:30 UTC

- reply

Try talking to artists who actually don’t give a shit. Biggest response to introducing money into art and music from artists I spoke to and tried to onboard to freedom tech apps were “money corrupts the art” and “now its about the money and not the art or music.”
It’s not what YOU believe, it’s what THEY want. Get outside of the room and actually try to get the revolution started and you’ll see how much of an uphill battle it is.
V4V is not the future because most people don’t actually desire a V4V future. Your naivety speaks volumes.

2024-09-28 18:35:23 UTC

- reply

Yeah this is the standard response to any criticism to the echo chamber of nostr worship. I’m on here because I want freedom technology to flourish, but I also tried and failed to build freedom tech products that people want.
Maybe instead of spitballing cheap ideas you actually tried to build something your perspective would change. Talk to real users instead of larping online.
Value signal > virtue signal.
All you have is cheap talk with no real effort behind it. Creating a future where freedom can flourish isn’t gonna happen by someone else putting in effort on your behalf.

2024-09-28 18:00:55 UTC

- reply

Desire provides the incentive
Value signal > virtue signal
If users don’t care about it, then devs shouldn’t build it. Wastes their time and effort when they could actually be building something with real impact

2024-09-28 17:54:53 UTC

- reply

Yeah the unfortunate destiny for freedom tech development: doomed to fail or devs go to jail.
I think it’s a good attempt, but people are trying to build a friendly fun social for their friends, not wikileaks type platform exposing war crimes or uncomfortable truths that elites want to hide, and that normies are uncomfortable with.
The problem social devs are solving simply does not require censorship resistance if nobody is saying anything controversial…

2024-09-28 17:38:08 UTC

Is nostr resistant to the self-censorship induced by the peer pressure of an echo chamber?

2024-09-28 17:37:21 UTC

- reply

Love on nostr
But resistance on Twitter?
If nobody has any hot takes on nostr whats the damn point of the censorship resistance of it

2024-09-28 17:35:13 UTC

- reply

Nobody gonna censor nostr if nobody important is saying anything that is worth censoring
Most of this shit is gm anyways lmao who cares about censoring that
Censorship resistance is only tested once the censors apply pressure

2024-09-28 17:29:01 UTC

- reply

Best of luck competing with the network effects of established and well-capitalised corporations.
Nostr might be cool tech, but it’ll remain niche until there are platforms with order of magnitude improvements in the eyes of ordinary users.
Trying to reinvent the wheel will only result in wasted work. Creator platforms already exist that seek to enable monetization, so v4v is not an actual selling point for normie creators. Bitcoin is also a tough sell unless you’re already orange-pilled and own sats. It’s an uphill battle.
Build something users want, that’s the only way they’ll use it. Don’t force tech down their throats because you drank the freedom tech kool aid.

2024-09-28 07:55:11 UTC

- reply

Good to step outside of the echo chamber and hear some real feedback
Not too many ideologues on here will appreciate that though

2024-09-27 06:30:42 UTC

- reply

Blessed

2024-09-26 10:38:26 UTC

- reply

The reason why secret power is the most powerful form of power is because people do not even realize it exists.
#note1ryr…jztt

2024-09-26 10:31:10 UTC

Nostr is the perfect identity and information transport layer to enable decentralized prediction markets. Bitcoin is the best monetary layer to facilitate purchasing of shares of event derivatives.
The question is this: what's the most decentralized and secure mechanism to enable tokenized shares of event derivatives similar to polymarket? In order for a prediction market to utilize LMSR (or some LMSR variant) it must have a limit order book to buy/sell shares in such a contract. Furthermore, those shares must be redeemable for Bitcoin after the event occurs.
Current bottleneck in prediction markets on Bitcoin is this token/share mechanism to enable price discovery (and therefore probability forecasting). If we can solve this then we can make a prediction market where anyone can ask any question they want, and provide liquidity to elicit responses from experts (or degens).

2024-09-26 09:53:05 UTC

- reply

I’d love to use some kind of nostr based private messaging protocol, but I have yet to find one. Something based on simple well-researched cryptography.
Alice and Bob should be able to find each other and just do a simple key exchange protocol. Then they can symmetric key encrypt all messages in their messaging session. Even better if the keys are ephemeral/single use. Regardless of the relays they use it shouldn’t compromise their privacy and if keys are ephemeral then it would be quite resistant to censorship.
Someone like opensats should fund some work in that direction. If u know of any nostr messaging apps/services please do recommend.

2024-09-26 07:21:58 UTC

- reply

Nostr as it exists today is pretty terrible for privacy.
Reusing public keys as identities is not good for privacy.
Broadcasting unencrypted plaintext is not good for privacy.
Nostr for censorship resistance (as long as relays face no pressure from the state or intel orgs) is a reasonable argument. But nostr for privacy is not.
I’m wondering do u see something that I don’t? Where are you getting this idea that nostr is good privacy tech…?

2024-09-25 16:53:26 UTC

This is why I’m so bullish on prediction markets
#note1rgn…p24s

2024-09-25 16:47:45 UTC

Power flows toward whatever is thought to have significance—and flows away from whatever is thought to have insignificance.
This is almost the same as saying that thinking causes the flowing toward or the flowing away from.
So something regarding empowerment depends on the scope of one’s awareness and perceptions with respect to sensing and identifying this flowing toward and flowing away from.
There is a single clue here. Significance is attributed to whatever is thought to foreshadow something, while if something is thought to foreshadow nothing, then insignificance is attributed to it.
— Ingo Swann, Secrets of Power Volume 1 https://image.nostr.build/ea3e035f99c3646c46e268fd37be224bf030484142f05207d653f27c612ca77b.jpg

2024-09-25 16:39:56 UTC

“Dreams don’t work unless you do”
— John C Maxwell https://image.nostr.build/eae710cbad9dc5613312f7e313d2a694e5e58dd6f5f5fcaa9e135a0c53a62097.jpg

2024-09-20 14:16:22 UTC

- reply

Keep mining fiat working for the state ya larp

2024-09-20 13:40:59 UTC

He whose mind is free from selfish desires, hatred and cruelty, and is saturated with spirit of selflessness, loving-kindness, and harmlessness, lives in perfect peace. He is indeed a blessing to himself and others.
~The Buddha https://image.nostr.build/8db7e6db0d042f428207adab80e8795180c6a9352dfa1e8f89d5e39a7722687f.jpg

2024-09-20 13:37:18 UTC

Lack of edit and delete functions on nostr is a bug not a feature
#note1jfa…htvs

2024-09-20 08:22:40 UTC

Lack of delete option on nostr could be dangerous…
Does nobody else find this a problem?
Own your data but never be able to remove it… if thats one of the tradeoffs that could be a security risk to the network

2024-09-20 08:13:20 UTC

At least damus is speedy and doesn’t bug tf out like primal…
I like the UI of primal and the fact that I can zap, but damn it’s unbearably slow…

2024-09-19 03:14:14 UTC

Primal is too slow

2024-09-17 16:06:29 UTC

Whoever is hedging against nuclear armageddon on polymarket (by betting yes) either owns a bunker and is hoping for apocalypse or is actually retarded
https://m.primal.net/KstM.jpg

2024-09-17 08:02:56 UTC

- reply

Any centralized regulated corporation must comply with the state.
Exchanges, big pubco miners, and mining pools are chokepoints of regulatory capture.
Just wait till miners and pools are accused of strict liability sanctions violation for mining non-OFAC compliant blocks, or mining on top of non-OFAC compliant blocks… Then resistance money becomes compliance money…

2024-09-17 06:33:25 UTC

FPPS is one hell of a drug
https://m.primal.net/KsWy.jpg

2024-09-17 06:31:33 UTC

- reply

Whe ro ter?

2024-09-17 06:14:04 UTC

Nostr apps should not try to rhyme with nostr
Shit is corny
Especially if the name is unreadable
How do you even pronounce @npub16el…c6d7 ???
I want to like these new things but being this unpronounceable is not helpful…

2024-09-17 03:00:06 UTC

- reply

Lol yeah a singular pubkey as an identity is not good for privacy at all…
Bitcoin addresses (hashed pubkeys) aren’t supposed to be reused, but that crypto hasn’t been inherited in the nostr architecture…

2024-09-17 02:52:21 UTC

- reply

Fiat grifters already own all the assets because they run the money printer. Tokenization is trivial for them. Tether is literally the most profitable company per employee and blackrock wants to compete on that front by tokenizing the Amazon.
Bitcoin doesn’t kill their scam, it just enables Bitcoin holders to store value in a way that is protected from their scam.

2024-09-17 01:43:53 UTC

- reply

Yeah scammers gonna scam unfortunately
And commodity conglomerates gonna cartelize unfortunately

2024-09-17 01:33:09 UTC

- reply

Haha thanks for the feedback as well. That’s our MVP that we built a few months back. We’re building a proper event derivatives platform with DLCs for bigger bets over longer timeframes for pools like Ocean, Demand, and other small PPLNS pools (1 difficulty epoch timeframe or longer). Lightning just wasn’t good enough to do betting/hedging for large amounts with so many payment pathfinding issues. Plus we didn’t like the custodial aspect of it too much, would much rather do non-custodial betting/hedging so there’s less risk.

2024-09-17 00:41:59 UTC

- reply

If aggregating hashrate is the only way miners and pools can reduce variance, then why do we act surprised when miners and pools mine for each other to reduce their variance?
Miners hate variance so they mine for pools.
Pools hate variance so they mine for each other.
Everyone hates variance and they wanna reduce it, but the only way they can is by passing the hot potato hashrate to a bigger balance sheet who is willing to take on the risk…

2024-09-17 00:39:01 UTC

- reply

Yeah but if we’re not careful hashrate is gonna end up the same way… Mining is already centralized around the central banker fiat money printer. Miners have already kissed the ring of fiat money and pools are mining for each other so it’s not like that much better in terms of centralization for PoW…
Literally all it takes is gun to the pool operator head and enforcement of compliant blocks by intel agencies is accomplished (re: feather fork and Carol House). I bet they’re just waiting for hashrate to consolidate a little more and then they’ll strike.
It’s not if but when. Eth has no chance ofc but Bitcoin is honestly not doing too much better… Bitcoiners patting themselves on the back before actually fighting the battle…

2024-09-16 13:11:19 UTC

Hedging hashrate enables miners and pools to reduce their variance while maintaining ownership over their hashrate and block templates.
Currently the only mechanism to reduce variance is hashrate aggregation into pools. Variance based pooling pressure incentivises mining pool centralization.
Hedging hashrate enables a sustainable decentralization of hashrate. The DLCs can be structured to incentivise pools to maintain lower global hashrate because a smaller probability pool yields a higher variance reduction.