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Last Notes

2026-06-01 07:42:23 UTC

Friends & colleagues, I have been advised that my instance has been over-run with Russian chatbots & so this afternoon will be transferring to a new instance.
As a result later today (and possibly into tomorrow) there will be a hiatus in posting while I work my way through the transfer protocol.
I will post from the new instance when the transfer is complete - you should find there is no need for you to do anything if you want to continue following my posts.
More on this later
#mastodon

2026-06-01 06:03:30 UTC

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Bite Size Economics No. 3
'markets are never free'
The idea that in some ideal world markets can be free misunderstands how markets work; they are dependent on property & contract laws shaped by the state (or in earlier times the local political authority).
Historically markets have operated without formal laws, but even then community trust & local authority set the norms for market interactions.
All markets are regulated the issue is how & by whom?
#BiteSizeEconomics #economics #markets

2026-06-01 05:24:14 UTC

For all its reputation as a country of rampant free market capitalism, the USA's corporate profitability may be in part (by some reckoning 50%) dependent on the deficit funding of the state;
which is to say that the US is actually a massive corporate welfare machine, pumping public money raised on international bond markets (through sales & holding of so-called T-bills across the world) into the private sector.
If so, US capitalism *does* look rather different!
#capitalism #USA
h/t FT

2026-05-31 12:48:38 UTC

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@nprofile…8ptd
yes, the very wealthy, for whom US healthcare is world class....

2026-05-31 09:05:07 UTC

As Sue Pritchard argues, what we really need to do in the UK is reduce farming's dependence on fossil fuels, and that requires some rethinking of how farming is organised... from diversifying crop rotation to feeding livestock on pasture, from better husbandry of soil to non-fertiliser approaches to crop support, there are plenty of avenues of development.
This might also contribute to a fairer more democratic food system, and so would be a win for us all.
#farming
https://observer.co.uk/news/opinion-and-ideas/article/british-farming-has-a-choice-bounce-back-or-bounce-forward

2026-05-31 08:47:24 UTC

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@nprofile…f3kd
I agree with your final point & also as noted earlier am not convinced incarceration is working in general, but as you point out 'victims must be given support and comfort, as well as knowledge that this won't happen again'... but this is not what seems to be happening here.

2026-05-31 08:02:23 UTC

While many of us are critical of the lack of custodial sentence for sexual assault by young perpetrators (given the seriousness of the crimes & the impact on the victims), this is not to argue that imprisonment of young offenders is working... it clearly isn't.
The care, offence, prison, reoffending cycle suggests that for a key group of young people whose circumstances are already dysfunctional, society is failing to extricate them from an environment that encourages criminality.
#politics

2026-05-31 07:39:39 UTC

Q. as Tony Blair says the public would back a 'rethinking of healthcare', we might ask why whenever a 'rethinking' of healthcare is proposed its always about how the private sector involvement can be expanded, not how we might better fund & support both existing public provision & the woefully underfunded preventative aspects of public health?
Its almost like politicians talking about health had already been bought up by private health care providers.... oh, hold on.
#NHS #health #healthcare

2026-05-31 07:15:28 UTC

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Bite Size Economics No. 2
'Money is trust'
Money is usually seen as a store of value or a means of exchange but these functions depend on its manifestation of trust.
We trust money is acceptable to others (in the form we want to use from paper money to digital payments); we trust its value is (at least in the medium term) relatively stable.
When our trust declines so does money's stability (inflation, barter exchange). So, without our trust money cannot work!
#BiteSizeEconomics #economics

2026-05-30 21:23:33 UTC

The Green Parry of England & Wales is being urged by its current & past leader(s) to listen to what those who are considering voting for ReformUK Ltd. are concerned about; as Zack Polanski says, its inequality, so the GPEW will stress
'when multimillionaires & billionaires are taking more money than ever before, the problem is not someone who is fleeing for their lives & might be travelling by small boat. The problem is flying above our head by private jet'!
#politics
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/30/green-leaders-warn-party-it-must-listen-to-reform-voters-concerns-to-tackle-inequality

2026-05-30 17:17:35 UTC

Jess Phillips is rightly angry about growing number of cases where perpetrators' interests seem to have been prioritised over those of rape victims.
'We are essentially asking the girls in Fordingbridge, and now these new cases reported in the Guardian, to essentially suck it up for the sake of the perception of what is best for the perpetrators. I think absolutely this all needs looking at'!
#politics #SexualAssault
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/may/30/sexual-abuse-victims-children-jess-phillips-sentencing-guidelines

2026-05-30 11:56:11 UTC

Bite Sized Economics No. 1 (remix)
'interest is the price of risk'!
If a higher interest rate is being changed there is more risk of non-repayment.
This is why some people are charged more for loans & why some 'investments' are offered with higher interest rates.
Knowing this helps make sense of loans & investments; and is a useful scam warning
If an interest rate is out of line, ask yourself, why?
#BiteSizedEconomics #economics

2026-05-30 07:26:06 UTC

Just in case you thought the lamentable case of teenage rapists escaping prison was an isolated case of apparent disregard for the (lifetime of) harm done to their victims; The Guardian has found three more cases in the North East of England.
This emphasis (again) that there is something wrong in how the justice system tis weighing the plight of the victims in rapes against the 'damage' to the future of the young male attackers!
#SexualAssault #politics
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/may/29/teenage-boys-rape-sentencing-youth-courts

2026-05-30 07:17:07 UTC

As we ponder the implications of Alan Milburn's report on youth employment & education, might the Dutch have a better way.
One of its key elements is the value put on technical education; of course, the UK has a perfectly workable technical & vocational education sector, but Further Education has been starved of funds for decades reducing it to a shadow of what it could be.
Certainly the UK's higher Education crisis is clear, but its FE crisis is even worse!
#workers
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/may/29/netherlands-britain-youth-jobs-crisis

2026-05-29 11:20:55 UTC

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@nprofile…udtr
yes, leaving 'battered' in, i think 😀

2026-05-29 10:47:55 UTC

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@nprofile…udtr
That may be the case; its a long time since the mainstream media battered with a straight bat on these sort of political issues - as it is I think I'm right in saying the local party will make the decision, I assume on the local political merits?

2026-05-29 09:28:17 UTC

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@nprofile…x0jx @nprofile…8ks6
Here it is (I don't normally offer links to the FT in posts as there is a paywall):
https://www.ft.com/content/2205e2d0-50dc-4e80-9bf7-78d0272276c0?syn-25a6b1a6=1

2026-05-29 07:20:23 UTC

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@nprofile…8ks6
Well, the rise of the hybrid working solution (two days WfH, three in the office) looks to be taking hold, so WfH is only in decline in the sense of full remote working... and yes, to some extent the current research shows correlate rather than causation, so we might expect to involve other issues as well, but the data cited in the FT article seems pretty clear

2026-05-28 21:30:58 UTC

I was asked to day what I thought was the one bit of economic knowledge anyone should know..... and I said this:
'interest is the price of risk'!
so if a higher interest rate is being changed there is more risk of non-repayment.
If you know this, you can recognise why some people are charged more for loans & why some 'investments' are offered with higher interest rates.
This simple piece of knowledge helps make sense of loans & investments.... and is a useful scam warning
#economics

2026-05-28 21:21:13 UTC

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@nprofile…7rt6
Although as I've noted, the comply focus on education for work undermines the humanistic value of education itself - I'm not saying ignore vocational issues, but they cannot (shouldn't) be the be all & end all of higher education

2026-05-28 17:12:35 UTC

Ever greater numbers of young people are no longer seeking work according to ONS data.
Before we blame the benefits system or education.... perhaps we should think of this differently.
If we see employment as a 'service' to workers (which it sort of is, as well as being of benefit to employers!), then we should look at what sort of work is on offer.
In a market if demand declines the product (here jobs) is unappealing!
Look at the jobs on offer, not the prospective workers!
#workers

2026-05-28 11:31:00 UTC

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@nprofile…rfz8
If I can be a bit academic for a moment; in current use, it sort of derives from Jurgen Habermas' notion of political communication which he drew from the Greek notion of the agora.... a place for social exchange(s). So the idea of the town square is somewhere we can all meet and discuss - a sort of more picturesque way of saying the public realm (I guess)

2026-05-28 05:49:04 UTC

There's been a lot of coverage of the forthcoming report by Alan Milburn on young people's work prospects, but what is refreshing is that he seems to be rejecting the usual victim blaming & rather focussing on the dysfunctional structures & systems that young people confront when trying to find their way into the workforce.
This change of emphasis is very welcome, but whether it will find its way into any policy responses is a different matter.
#workers #politics
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy026x9jpd0o

2026-05-28 05:41:23 UTC

Disappointingly, but all to predictably Jonathan Liew exercise a long critique of X (formally Twitter), but concludes that the 'utopian idea of the digital town square is dead for ever' without even mentioning Mastodon, which while not perfect (seem to me) to get quite a long way towards that ideal....
We've noted before how (wilfully?) blind to Mastodon mainstream journalists are, so we shouldn't be surprised, just disappointed (again).
#mastodon #SocialMedia
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/28/still-on-x-ask-yourself-why-platform-twitter-malign-actors-misinformation

2026-05-28 05:20:02 UTC

A key element of the crisis engulfing universities is the breakdown in community between the academic staff & the managerial cadre (badly) running their institutions.
As Stefan Collini says: 'Members of the academic staff cease to be regarded as colleagues whose co-operation should be solicited; instead, they are treated as a disaffected workforce liable to make trouble if given a hint of the cuts being prepared by the senior management team'!
#universities #politics
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v48/n10/stefan-collini/squadrons-of-pigs

2026-05-27 17:32:36 UTC

The reform of university financing & specifically the student loan system will only come when we reject the notion that most (or indeed all) the benefits of attending university are captured by graduates (the business model that sees them pick up the entire headline cost of tuition).
A university educated cohort is a major pubic good in many ways & so the Govt. *should* take on a significant proportion (if not all) the cost(s)....
#politics #universities
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2026/may/27/tax-on-ambition-graduates-tell-all-to-student-loans-inquiry

2026-05-27 05:39:53 UTC

Tony Blair has intervened in the (prospective) Labour leadership election to warn against moving the party left & arguing the UK should have backed the Tangerine Tyrant's attack on Iran (a further move to the right?).
Given Blair's current standing (of which he seems unaware), the implicit criticism of Andy Burnham's (supposed) leftism, may well play well for Burnham.
But as so often its Blair's lack of appreciation of how history now sees his Premiership that's the problem.
#politics

2026-05-26 17:26:18 UTC

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@nprofile…jnnp
I know... its almost like in the C19th we had some idea how to manage civil engineering projects...

2026-05-26 17:13:52 UTC

As its is announced that HS2 spent £65mn on consultants in 2025 to figure out it 'reset', the most expensive railway in the world has become a classic example of what is wrong with the UK.
Mangers don't know what they're doing so hire consultant who will say whatever they think will maximise their fee;
The idea of the public good is evacuated of meaning & is only measured using monetised cost-benefit analysis;
the political cycle destroys everything it touches.
#HS2 #politics
h/t FT

2026-05-26 08:40:27 UTC

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@nprofile…ay7w
Yes, but for the EU, its only a relatively small issue, they have much bigger fish to fry

2026-05-26 05:43:47 UTC

The (continuing) problem for the uk/EU 'reset' and for (prospective) Labour leadership contenders pushing re-engaging with the EU, is these position(s) presume a neutral & permissive stance from the European Commission.
However, looking at the popularity & stance on Europe of ReformUK Ltd, little is going to happen before the next election, because of the likelihood of any (possible) ReformUK Govt immediately reversing any agreement.
The EU can wait, even if we cannot!
#EU #Brexit #politics

2026-05-26 05:38:21 UTC

Markets are premised on the idea of perfect information (in economic theories).... but are actually patterned by information asymmetries.
Sometimes these help customers who know more about their needs & priories than sellers, but increasingly (as in 'surveillance pricing') firms use AI & associated technologies to ascertain whether prospective (online) customers comparison shop regularly & then offer (variable) prices;
given 'surge pricing' is unpopular, will this be too?
#economics
h/t FT

2026-05-26 05:21:06 UTC

While the Tangerine Tyrant is 'demanding' that Iran 're-open' the Strait of Hormuz, it looks like the Iranians toll system is working to some extent with three ships (two LNG, one oil) passing through the Strait safely - one assumes having paid some sort of toll - over the weekend.
As this demonstrates, one result of the US/Israeli attacks on Iran may be to have turned the Straits into a naval turnpike.
Not the result we were told to expect, is it?
#StraitOfHormuz #Iran #politics
h/t FT

2026-05-26 05:16:04 UTC

As a policy its never really seems to work, but Rachel Reeves has joined a procession of past politicians declaring that we should Buy British.
A well managed Buy British public procurement policy can have good Keynesian multiplier effects, but without a stronger legislative & incentive structure such invocations are usually largely ineffective due to other (cost, capacity & technological) considerations.... it also requires a stronger & funded surrounding industrial policy!
#economics
h/t FT

2026-05-25 17:13:46 UTC

To the sceptics among us the rash of prospective Initial Public Offerings from AI-related enterprises reflect not so much confidence in the future of AI & related technologies bit rather the actions of a group of promoters looking to cash out while the market is booming, searching for the fools to buy them....
(its said every speculative market needs fools; if you don't know who they are then its likely you; but watch out, booms only run until the last fool has invested!)
#AI #investment

2026-05-24 17:20:06 UTC

So, in a bid to deflect media attention from the £5m gift from a crypto-billionnaire that has been causing the Fascist Frog (or Clacton Conman if you prefer) some difficulty, he now claims that the payment only came to light because of the actions of Russian hackers who revealed the information to the media.
Has he in ay proof? well what do you think?
Does it matter? If he was really concerned about foreign meddling in UK politics he'd return the £17m to Harborne, now wouldn't he!
#politics

2026-05-24 08:47:53 UTC

If you're interested in the shape & extent of inequality in the UK, then you'll be wanting to spend some time examining the conclusions of the Deaton Review on Inequality that has recently concluded six years research.
I'm not going to try to summarise their conclusions but note, as they point out: 'inequalities are themselves a sign that something is not working well in the way that markets are functioning'!
The UK's economic system is dysfunctional!
#inequality
https://ifs.org.uk/articles/evidence-action-what-six-years-research-tells-us-about-challenging-inequalities

2026-05-24 08:38:04 UTC

Why do (some) people find ReformUK Ltd appealing?
Well, we might focus on the state's contempt of ordinary people, exhibited from the Grenfell fire, to the Post Office scandal, from Windrush to the infected blood scandal.
The Fascist Frog is a charlatan, but his appeal to ordinary people ('I'm like you') despite being demonstrably) false is key... and this is why Zack Polanski's videos have seen the Green Party of England & Wales' support rise.
People are fed up with the contempt!
#politics

2026-05-24 07:31:17 UTC

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@nprofile…vppf
Yes, I'd agree; the use of drones has left military personnel so exposed that their utility on the battlefield has declined so greatly as to leave them a liability rather than a military asset... which is why this may be the RMA moment - a technology (drones) that very swiftly has made the proposition about humans on the battlefield unerringly real

2026-05-24 07:20:52 UTC

Is the latest Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) current playing out in the Ukraine?
RMAs are when a new technology, be it spurs for riding, or machine guns, so changes the balance of power on the battlefield that all sides have to completely rethink their strategy & practices of warfare.
The deployment of masses of cheap but deadly drones by the Ukrainians against the Russians has so overpowered the latter that this looks like such a moment!
#military #war
h/t John Naughton/Observer

2026-05-23 07:19:20 UTC

Timothy Garton Ash has been thinking & wiring about Russia for decades, so when he say he can think of eight different ways the West can defeat Vladimir Putin, its likely a good idea to read what he has to say (even if you don't agree with everything, TGA has a deep knowledge of the country & its politics on which his views are built).
Worth spending ten minutes digesting this morning.
#Russia #politics
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/23/defeat-vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-nato-eu

2026-05-23 07:14:51 UTC

More on the accelerating Ebola crisis in the DRC.
Without wishing to be alarmist (but accepting that it will sound that way) this is starting to remind me of the reports that were coming out of Wuhan in the January & February before we knew to call the health crisis about to engulf the world 'Covid'.
There's many way this may not come to pass, not least of all due to the lessons learnt during the pandemic six years ago, but nonetheless, I'm getting worried.
#ebola
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/23/ebola-virus-spread-drc-democratic-republic-of-congo

2026-05-22 11:05:00 UTC

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@nprofile…xep3
How depressing is that.....

2026-05-22 05:52:51 UTC

My problem with the argument that progressive voters & parties should get behind Andy Burnham to defeat ReformUK Ltd, is its just one more example of Labour's entitlement; their view that they remain the key opposition to the far right.
Rather, Labour has legitimised & normalised rightest views & policies, and has been antagonistic towards any notion of the development of a progressive alliance.
How much longer should/can we accept Labour's (now pretty clearly) empty promises?
#politics
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/616/657/445/059/732/original/58ab468457962104.png

2026-05-21 21:24:48 UTC

Read this case of three juvenile rapists being given non-custodial sentences, and ask yourself this:
whatever the logic the judge has used around rehabilitation, doesn't the sentence seem to be about safeguarding the future lives of the perpetrators than of the victims, whose worlds will have been shattered by these attacks?
Whether the victims will want to appear the sentences & put themselves through more of this is another matter.
#SexualAssault
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/may/21/boys-convicted-of-get-non-custodial-sentences-as-judge-says-they-should-not-be-criminalised-unnecessarily

2026-05-21 17:14:29 UTC

In 1990 UK billionaires had wealth equivalent to 4% of GDP, now they have wealth equivalent to 22% of GDP... and have hollowed out the UK's economy where the fruits of labours effort & innovation are captured by an elite who are getting richer & richer while the rest of us are trapped in an economy that fails to provide even a basic level of wellbeing & comfort for many.
The Labour Party no longer has an answer to this, if it ever did!
#inequality #politics #wealth
https://equalitytrust.org.uk/news/ghost-gdp-billionaire-britain-and-the-hollow-economy/

2026-05-21 16:34:47 UTC

Rachel Reeves has indicated she's going to clamp down on oil & energy firms international transfer pricing (used to move profits to low tax jurisdictions) to pay for a range of ameliorative measures to deal with the economic crisis caused by the US/Israeli attacks on Iran.
However, the OECD & UN have been working separately for years to find a way of constraining such profit shifting & as yet have largely failed.
Reeves may declare she can do this but it seems unlikely.
#politics
h/t FT

2026-05-21 06:02:40 UTC

The truism 'justice delayed is justice denied' is becoming an ever wider depiction of how the legal system works across England & Wales.
So news that workers & employers are waiting up to five years for an employment tribunal on claims for unfair dismissal is both no surprise & a confirmation of the shocking state of the legal system.
Respect for the rule of law depends on it efficacy in actually delivering judgements - no wonder its being lost!
#RuleOfLaw #politics
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp9pj2pk2j7o

2026-05-21 05:45:48 UTC

The Green Party of England & Wales looks like deciding not to make a major showing in Makerfield, to give Andy Burnham a better shot at winning the by-election.
A Green official told the FT:
'We do not want this one to go to Reform & to be quite frank we do not want Labour to be able to turn around and say ‘if you vote Green, you’re actually voting Reform’ because that will be used for the next three years...
[so] actually, this isn’t going to be a big priority or a Green target'
#politics

2026-05-21 05:30:43 UTC

We know the rise of the Greens & ReformUK Ltd has shifted voters away from supporting the Labour Party. The Economist used these results to match the age & work profile of workers to map this transition between 2021 & 2026.
The diagram below offer a (further) stark demonstration of why the Labour Party is wrong-headed in their aping of ReformUK, not least because their support from such wider base is moving to the Green Party of England & Wales.
#politics #Greens
h/t Andy Cotgreave/LinkedIn
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/610/894/740/573/915/original/663f9987c579afb1.jpeg

2026-05-20 17:31:55 UTC

Well, well, well, a housing provider that has been channelling state grants into its provision of social housing via a complex financial engineering model has (on going into administration) resulted in the potential privatisation of homes built with state grants.... while the grants look likely not be recovered.
Its not as if anyone could have predicted that involving private equity in social hosing might result in money flowing to 'investors' & not housing?
#housing
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/may/20/social-housing-investment-firms-heylo-administration

2026-05-20 17:15:17 UTC

The problem of trying to conduct policy by briefing the media is all too clear clear in the immediate reversal on a putative 'deal' to relax some supermarket regulations in return for voluntary procedures-capping;
Now, the Treasury now saying they were never going to announce such measure tomorrow anyway.....
Whatever one thinks of the policy itself this sort of cack-handedness does nothing to support confidence in the Govt.'s grip on economic policy!
#politics #supermarkets
h/t FT

2026-05-20 16:40:16 UTC

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@nprofile…dm53
Of course this would still have some clear political effect even if one held overall economic activity as fixed (i.e. no growth)

2026-05-19 17:41:09 UTC

Anyone who thinks the two stories related in the piece below about disabled people being marooned in hospital as their integrated home care package cannot be agreed, has nothing to do with budgeting is missing what is going on in the engineered crisis of the NHS & the care sector.
As always its vulnerable people who are trying to live their best lives (but needing support to do so) who are the target of spreadsheet wielding managers.
#disability #NHS #health
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2e2zvlyy38o

2026-05-19 12:53:54 UTC

As @nprofile…udtr [puts it (in a discussion we've been having about pensions in my timeline):
'In hindsight it's easy to see that Thatcherism was basically a heist'.....
This observation, tells us a lot about both the roots of our current problems & the parallels with now more obvious right populist grifters.
#politics

2026-05-19 06:10:19 UTC

For Andrew Malkinson, whose life was ruined by (as finally proved) a wrongful conviction, the fight for compensation for this life changing damage continues.
It seems like the Inquiry into his wrongful conviction will find both Greater Manchester Police (first) and the Criminal Cases Review Commission (later) made crucial mistakes that caused him to lose 20 years of freedom, so his case for compensation should be strong.
But how do you compensate for that?
#politics
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c74r1x7dj8go

2026-05-19 06:03:38 UTC

Q. what should the Green Party of England & Wales do in the Makerfeld by-election?
Should they reign back to give Andy Burnham a better chance but demand action of electoral reform (perhaps)?
Should they fight the seat on the grounds they could win... and any 'splitting' of the Left vote is Labour's problem not their's?
There are no easy answers here, but the vey fact this *is* an issue, actually reflects the rising success of the GPEW!
#Makerfield #Greens #politics
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/18/greens-andy-burnham-makerfield-byelection-reform

2026-05-19 05:33:29 UTC

I've said before that the NHS crisis is largely made up of a workforce planning problem - not enough staff attending patients.... but, now it seems that the NHS, under continuing budgetary pressures, plans to reduce recruitment & mobilise AI & associated technologies in treatment.
This is of course Wes Streeting's doing, so one can but hope that it is now recognised for the miss-step it is.
(The new plan is also focussed on staff retention which *is* welcome)
#NHS #health #politics
h/t FT

2026-05-19 05:19:46 UTC

If you wanted an indication of why the world needs the International Criminal Court, it now seems that while in Beijing the Tangerine Tyrant suggested to Xi Jinping might help coordinate a joint move against the ICC with Russia, with the TT claiming that it was in all three leaders' interest to see the Court neutered.
The ICC may not be perfect but if Trump, Xi & Putin all think its dangerous then we might conclude its doing something right?
#ICC #politics #InternationalLaw
h/t FT

2026-05-18 17:30:26 UTC

'A lot of working-class people, they don’t want a lot', says Martin a former miner. 'They want enough to get by & to have nicer things in life. To go on holiday & to have good food and things like that. They are not bothered about yachts and aeroplanes... They are just happy enough to get through in life with a job, a secure job to pay the mortgage & to look after their family'
And the problem is the UK *doesn't* achieve even that for many!
#inequality #politics
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/18/reform-voters-progressive-post-industrial-northern-england

2026-05-18 07:59:40 UTC

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@nprofile…xult
That's a fair Q.; although actually that sort of profit shifting (tax planning) is largely the preserve of large MNCs, not the bulk of firms in the UK

2026-05-18 05:44:54 UTC

In Birmingham, ReformUK Ltd, the largest party has declined to form a local administration (there's no prospective coalition partners), while Labour (the previous administration) will not form any coalition, leaving the Green Party of England & Wales to the (impossible?) task of forming an administration for the largest local authority in Europe.
Might this be Reform looking to avoid any more mistakes in local Govt. while giving the Greens a 'fools errand' likely to fail?
#Birmingham
h/t FT

2026-05-17 21:31:33 UTC

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@nprofile…xult
I agree with most of that; I think the only interesting point is that people *don't* have any real idea what 'normal' profits might be.... yes, they are subject to all kinds of gaming but respondents' views are out by so much as to remain notable (hence the post)

2026-05-17 18:26:55 UTC

Whatever you think about the levels of profitability in the UK's economy, one thing is clear voters are vastly over-estimating how much firms make in profits.... but perhaps most telling (in this misunderstanding of what is going on) is the apparent perception that the NHS makes a profit (although there is a chance respondents didn't properly understand the Q.?).
(And of course this was carried out by the right wing Inst. for Economic Affairs, no doubt to prove a point!)
#economics #business
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/591/318/023/277/570/original/8aa16f671765fac5.png

2026-05-17 10:24:50 UTC

Here are The Bear's musings on Saturday's Unite the Kingdom rally, in which he suggests it was all a bit sad (a damp squib), perhaps not quite the nationalistic uprising promised by Stephen Yaxley-Lennon & his associates....
the Bear suggests:
'The whole rally felt less like a protest & more like a networking event themed around “How to be Racist Online and Earn Money!'
So, does the Americanisation of the Far Right preface its failure or its renewal?
#politics
https://www.bearlypolitics.co.uk/p/the-far-right-has-become-a-bit-sad

2026-05-17 08:31:35 UTC

David Lloyd Owen (water policy consultant) says:
'You can classify the water companies into four groups: worst by a country mile are those owned by private equity, the not-for-profit companies are quite weak, the public limited companies are second best – but, intriguingly, the best are Wessex & Northumbria, which are owned by foreign companies that run utilities themselves'!
Yet more evidence the UK's real problem is its dysfunctional culture of management?
#water #managerment
h/t Observer

2026-05-17 08:03:56 UTC

This weekend is demonstrating an unwavering truth of political reporting...
Media commenters & analysts decry the chaotic psychodrama of leadership challenges & churn in the top job (with tales of its negative impact on UK politics & economics and the UK's international standing)... yet;
they find it hard to hide their glee at filling their papers (and online presence) with speculation, profiles of possible contenders & argument(s) around 'new starts' for the Govt.
[grinds teeth]
#politics

2026-05-16 21:46:42 UTC

Ahmed Najar argues:
'Criticism of Russia is not treated as hatred towards Russians. Opposition to American wars is not automatically framed as hostility towards Americans as a people. Protest against the Chinese government is not assumed to be anti-Chinese racism.
Only when it comes to Israel does this distinction repeatedly collapse.
That collapse carries consequences'
#politics
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/5/16/britain-is-losing-the-ability-to-tell-anti-semitism-from-dissent

2026-05-16 11:16:25 UTC

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@nprofile…rfz8
Indeed, but after six years of war, the bar was pretty low (which is not to downplay Atlee's achievements)

2026-05-16 08:38:14 UTC

And so we now have a Govt. defying the will of Parliament by denying access to key documents in the case of Peter Mandelson's (shall we say) mishandled vetting for his role in Washington.
While this may seem a technical issue around one (albeit quite consequential) political development, actually it demonstrates once again, how little interest those at the centre of the Labour Part actually have in democracy!
#politics
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/15/peter-mandelson-vetting-file-withheld-isc

2026-05-16 08:23:20 UTC

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@nprofile…d8x0 @nprofile…kfcf
Well, certainly you can join campaigns for voting reform & shifts in the regulation of the media, perhaps support a political party that seems to challenge the preconceptions (perhaps the GPEW?)... but part of the problem with politics is individual acts seldom carry much weight unless as part of a coordinated more collective action (hence this answer focussing on existing campaigns)...

2026-05-16 08:01:16 UTC

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@nprofile…kfcf @nprofile…d8x0
Yes, a really good book; sat on my recommendations for reading for my economics for non-economists UG course for sometime (before I retired)

2026-05-16 07:37:41 UTC

As predicted, Keir Starmer's position has weakened sufficiently & the resulting intra-party political calculations have shifted so that Labour's NEC having only three months ago blocked Andy Burnham from standing in a by-election for Labour, have now voted through his candidacy to confirmed through a swift (and likely unopposed) candidate selection during next week.
Now the Q. is: will have actually win the by-election? Or will the Greens (or perhaps ReformUK Ltd) steal it?
#politics
h/t FT

2026-05-16 07:21:31 UTC

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@nprofile…d8x0
We essentially have two choices:
cut our cloth accordingly - accept our global position and organise our political economy accordingly; or,
seek out strategies that can underpin world class sectors (such as universities) while accelerating areas where we can be world class (green energy perhaps).
There is some move on the latter but the current plight of the university sector is indicative of the underlying problem with our political class' views on what matters.

2026-05-16 07:18:50 UTC

Well, well, well, as the Tangerine Tyrant has stoked volatility in financial markets through his 'policies' and actions, regulatory filings in the US indicate that the volume of market trades on his behalf have expanded considerably (to take advantage of the volatility one must presume);
given other signs of extensive insider trading from the administration & its associates, we might best take the Trump Org.'s statement (quoted by the FT) about these trades with a pinch of salt!
#USPol
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/583/028/483/835/398/original/a8f127bf276baa06.png

2026-05-16 07:12:11 UTC

The key problem of British politics is how to manage a country where the population expects a higher standard of living than its increasingly second league status can provide.
In one way or another we all suffer from a form of post-imperial, post-industrial entitled hubris.
The world has moved on leaving the UK with pockets of excellence dwarfed by sectors are far from world class.
Few politicians understand this or have a good plan to escape our predicament (if there is one?).
#politics

2026-05-15 07:13:18 UTC

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@nprofile…6mg8
It would be the Palantir interactions with the Israeli Govt/military, that would have prompted that, I would think

2026-05-15 05:51:32 UTC

Having visited The Music is Black exhibition on a recent (rare) trip to London I completely agree with this positive & enthusiastic review - it is a great experience (anchored in, as I posted about a couple of weeks ago, an immersive soundscape that responds to where you are in the exhibition). Well worth the trip to Stratford.
#museums #music #London
https://theconversation.com/the-music-is-black-a-british-story-its-little-wonder-this-emotional-exhibition-took-over-four-years-to-complete-282780

2026-05-15 05:36:49 UTC

The BBC is reporting that many hotels in the USA are not seeing the demand for rooms during the FIFA World Cup that they expected, citing the political environment, rising costs associated with the conflict in the Middle East & transport costs.... but what is missing from this report is the rise in hotel prices associated with the World Cup that was reported earlier this year.
This looks like basic economics; hotels put up their prices, demand fell!
#football
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0p2532xn4o

2026-05-14 21:10:32 UTC

If the rich are the most dangerous minority, it also needs to be said (as Steve Keen does) that:
'The most dangerous sincere believers on this planet are not religious extremists, but mainstream economists. They will destroy capitalism, precisely because they falsely believe that it is indestructible'!
However, for those of us brought up on Karl Marx, the idea that capitalism has within it the seed(s) of its own destruction (here in the guise of economists) is hardly news.....
#economics

2026-05-14 07:41:00 UTC

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@nprofile…vt7u
Yes the amateurism of British politics has long been evident

2026-05-14 05:45:30 UTC

By one measure the UK has among the highest (legal) minimum wage levels in the G7... but this is only if measured by its relation to median workers' wages.
What this really emphasises is that especially in some regional cities where the MW is an even higher proportion of local median wages, is that actually what we are seeing is an effective ceiling on wages in the UK - the spread of a low-wage/medium wage economy with a shrinking elite of the *very* well paid.
#workers #economics
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/571/331/307/388/978/original/25ea156534b22a3b.png

2026-05-13 20:36:31 UTC

While the mainstream media has been working to down play it, it seems the Fascist Frog *will* be investigated by the parliamentary standards commissioner for not declaring a £5mn gift from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne in the run-up to the 2024 general election.
The maximum sanction if found in breach of Parliamentary standards is, of course, suspension & a possible by-election in Clacton.
But, of course, there's many a slip twixt cup & lip....
#NigelFarage #politics
h/t FT

2026-05-13 20:22:14 UTC

Keir Starmer vs. Wes Streeting is about as politically interesting as two bald men fighting over a comb.... its a classic bit of change but no change, and suggests the Labour Party is clueless about why people are abandoning them.
Then the (more interesting) Q. is how would Andy Burnham vs. Wes Streeting play out, if Streeting gets past an increasingly truculent Starmer?
Or perhaps Burnham wouldn't have the appetite for a second leadership challenge in this Parliament?
#politics #LabourParty

2026-05-13 10:38:46 UTC

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@nprofile…azwa @nprofile…8mxe @nprofile…vppf
Indeed; this is one of the key social influences of )past) national service - the mandated mixing of the classes (however incomplete it actually was)... nowadays its more a society of enclaves

2026-05-13 05:22:15 UTC

The UK's political & social-economic elites are more often educated at private school than the rest of the population....
Given, the problems the UK finds itself in (and the demand for 'change') perhaps we might wonder whether the underlying issue isn't productivity or management but rather the educational background of our political & business classes?
Perhaps that's what needs to change?
#politics #inequality #education
For more data from the Sutton Trust see:
https://elitistbritain.suttontrust.com
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/565/567/446/597/980/original/a44d730c3d9ef73f.jpeg

2026-05-12 17:20:38 UTC

How worried is the Govt. that Palestine Action protestors have the sympathy of juries?
enough to hide from the jury the fact that they would e sentenced not as criminals (having been convicted of criminal damage) but rather as terrorists.
At best, its a grossly unjust manipulation of procedure, and at worst brings the justice system into disrepute as juries are being lied to (albeit by omission).
This Govt.'s 'respect' for the rule of law seems ever weaker!
#politics
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/may/12/palestine-action-activists-elbit-protest-terrorist-connection-ruling

2026-05-12 10:14:20 UTC

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@nprofile…ft84
Yes, chaotic & reactive nationalisation cannot ever be better than strategic & reasoned assessment of the shape & requirements of the state in such areas

2026-05-12 07:29:45 UTC

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@nprofile…ft84
but don't discount nostalgia as the driver for political positioning.... (see Brexit)

2026-05-12 07:28:02 UTC

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@nprofile…ka8y
To some extent, I'd imagine that is a factor, as is the clustering of the wealthy - i.e. as they become wealthy they move southwards to enjoy the fruits of that wealth better

2026-05-12 06:08:17 UTC

For years there have been concerns that one or more English universities might fall into administration.
In the past when this has looked to be a real prospect, mergers & take-overs of vulnerable institutions have been stage managed by regulators;
but now, it would seem with so many institutions in various level of difficulty, the 24 institutions most at risk are more likely to close than to be rescued via consolidation.
Things are getting grim in HE!
#universities
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce3p93j3823o

2026-05-12 05:49:51 UTC

One way to be clear about the geographic wealth inequality in the UK is to look at inheritance tax receipts (remembering that only about 5% of estates pay IHT at all).
What we see is that such wealth is skewed towards London & SE England, which is no surprise but what perhaps is, is that across the London region IHT tax receipts were higher than totals for Scotland & Wales, together!
No wonder the rich were quietly backing the Farmers 'farm tax' protests!
#politics #wealth #inequality
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/560/024/450/279/060/original/6fc401a6a48c8032.png

2026-05-12 05:38:22 UTC

Since 1945, British Steel has been nationalised (1949), privatised (or had nationalisation 'reversed') (1952), nationalised (1967), privatised (1988), followed by a period of a succession of new owners from around the world... and now the Labour Party is going to (re)nationalise
To say, the UK has not got a clear idea how best to maintain a functioning steel industry is an understatement.... although the global commercial environment *doesn't* make it easy, to be fair.
#steel #economics

2026-05-12 05:27:08 UTC

The problem that Keir Starmer (as other challenged leaders always have) is when they commit to future actions that their critics have demanded previously, the Q. is always 'if you believed this was the way to go, why didn't you do it before?'.
While of course political pressure is intended to change politicians' direction, the suspicion must be when they commit to change under pressure that such a commitment will be jettisoned once things quiet down... and here Starmer has form.
#politics

2026-05-11 05:43:39 UTC

For those concerned about Palantir's access to NHS patients' data the news that the soon to be closed NHS England is about to grant Palantir & its associated contractors 'unlimited access' to patient data in the NHS Federated Data Platform which includes the anonymisation function.... suggesting that Peter Thiel's firm will have the ability to access patient information prior to it being made anonymous.
More evidence that patient data privacy is not a priority at NHS-E
#palantir #NHS
h/t FT

2026-05-11 05:33:30 UTC

Hmmm... Tim Leunig (NESTA) suggests that one way round the UK's current problems with Gilt's rising yields would be to issue a proportion of public debt as €-denominated bonds, which would:
reduce the likely interest paid;
also make £-denominated bonds more attractive by reduction of issue(s);
sidestep the risk of a run on Gilts driven by sterling-focussed assessment of risk(s).
What he doesn't note is it would also be a good sign of alignment with the EU!
#economics #politics
h/t FT

2026-05-10 16:58:00 UTC

At a rally in London today to protest against anti-semitism, the Fascist Frog (who you will recall has been accused of anti-semtiism when he was younger) was invited as ReformUK Ltd's representative & excluded the Green Party of England & Wales (and its leader Zack Polanski).
As the GPEW observed:
'It does feel like the world is upside down when Reform are invited to be part of an initiative to tackle antisemitism but the Green Party — and its Jewish leader — aren’t'!
#politics
h/t FT

2026-05-10 10:27:51 UTC

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@nprofile…6ptc @nprofile…yt30
But I think that is entirely legitimate - what I hate is the idea that not voting is political apathy - often it can be a reasoned judgment about the system itself

2026-05-10 10:22:14 UTC

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@nprofile…6ptc @nprofile…c00k
Well, I hope you never suffer complications after treatment - equally, no-one is saying public health provision is without its problems (but they do actually have to sort them out, unlike private providers who merely pass their problem patients on)

2026-05-10 10:20:28 UTC

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@nprofile…sqrc
aha, well that is of course a classic Q.: as has been said often - whoever you vote for the Govt. gets in