Macro_Intuitions

Ideas about possible scenarios evolving in Global Markets and Economy.

Looking at charts often is the best way to read news..

Not financial advices, a bit of astrology for man mixed with intuitions that I don't trade.. but I should have often.

#economy #macro #charts #geopolitics #finance

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Last Notes

2026-05-06 09:58:50 UTC

UPDATE: They needed to act, and they did precisely where they I thought they would.
This are the chart GOVT and the FED keep looking at..
https://i.nostr.build/xekJBtWWF53JOGVX.png
https://i.nostr.build/MTJJPjLHMvrCyn7b.png
#economy #bonds #treasury #macro #finance #chart
#nevent1q…ks7r

2026-05-05 20:39:26 UTC

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After it breaks 85k..
#nevent1q…t6zs
Over 92/95 you'll start to hear people calling ATH before year ends.

2026-05-05 19:49:25 UTC

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Soon you'll see more and more lasers on eyes that were crying not long before.. 😜

2026-05-05 18:01:53 UTC

UPDATE:
BTC/GOLD chart is very promising.. for bitcoin.
I unfortunately deleted that first #stoopidline that I made the 11 of March.. 😅 It was 14 ounces of gold per bitcoin in March, it's 18 now.. I draw a new line the 10th of April (short term)
https://i.nostr.build/s3weAuoWtu07uqdm.png
35 ounces will be a huge resistance we are trying to break since March 2021.. that's the real deal in #BTC if you are concerned about price.. the FIAT doesn't have much sense.
#economy #gold #macro #finance #chart
#nevent1q…wfl7

2026-05-04 16:15:39 UTC

#QQQ going down -10% or more in a week or less?
Very possible.

2026-05-04 16:07:39 UTC

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(lol sorry wrong npub 😅)

2026-05-04 16:06:58 UTC

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Hopefully one day I will be able to retire and avoid wearing shoes at all, great life goal ahah
I noticed more shoe company are starting to have a wider end making it more comfortable and more apace for spreading fingers as should be.

2026-05-04 16:03:14 UTC

What if I say,
92K
by the end of may..

2026-05-02 07:49:29 UTC

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The empty closet full of good pleb 😁🤙🏼🍀

2026-05-01 12:55:34 UTC

Shit was about to hit the fan and Central Banks needed to act, and they did.
There are some levels on different charts that all at same time were signalling stress in markets, and the most blatant ones that currently make more noise IMO are the 10yrs US interests yeald, and the USD/JPY rate.
https://i.nostr.build/OywqNgMr63zat7zo.png
https://i.nostr.build/xTjx8Fxn4A5PdjFI.png
When the 10yrs goes near 4.45% range you can almost bet that Trump and or the FED will do everything they can to lower it down. With a Teump tweet saying Strait is open again (lol) or the FED opening Swap Lines for other Central Banks in stress because of oil price and their currency falling. And you can tell looking at Japanese Yen that can't go over 160, and if does JCB will sell everything to avoid it, and US govt will try to avoid having Japan to sell US treasury or Assets.. sooo Swap Line opened to convert Foreign currencies with Dollars to increase liquidity and trying to stabilise markets.
Check what they did yesterday..
https://i.nostr.build/ausdZpCGZfQ3ycys.png
https://i.nostr.build/OywqNgMr63zat7zo.png
DXY ofc corrected too at same time going from almost 100 to 98 in some hrs and also € strengthened with 1% raise at same time.
So what is US purpose? IMO keeping lower interest rates as they have to refinancenad reroll 10T debt in the next months with lowest yealds thwy can, while inflation going up, basically destroying purchasing power of Treasury owners in the long time.. someone has to pay the debt, and is never the government.
Some is spotting this and that's why Investors looks for higher yealds pushing it up forcing the FED to act.. those months as we go to mid election and new FED chair while all markets, economic balances and supply routes changing, will be interesting to watch developing.
They'll print, and things like bitcoin are spotting it first.. IMHO.
#Economy #markets #finance #macro #geopolitc #currency #yeald

2026-04-27 06:28:53 UTC

Volatility ✅
Liquidations ✅
80k..
#nevent1q…96dj

2026-04-24 12:44:14 UTC

I have a feeling..
Volatility.. liquidations.. 80k.. 85k.. FOMO. 🚀📈

2026-04-23 12:02:56 UTC

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21MD

2026-04-21 20:41:51 UTC

You remember In October and November billions in long liquidations?
Don't bw surprised when will happen on the other direction..
.. sooner than most expect them.

2026-04-21 19:25:49 UTC

@npub1r3k…uytc
#nevent1q…andl

2026-04-19 05:56:50 UTC

Yeald Curve Control..
#nevent1q…88al

2026-04-15 19:54:22 UTC

Liquidation time I guess..
#nevent1q…56ec
#nevent1q…dk20

2026-04-15 19:27:00 UTC

#nevent1q…jxwr
#nevent1q…lwng

2026-04-15 17:58:59 UTC

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There's no oil there but Americans love bacon and cigars 😅😁

2026-04-15 16:29:51 UTC

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- Saylor's coins becoming the US Btc Treasury

2026-04-15 16:00:25 UTC

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I would say 2008.. but yes, 2022 sanctions were the nail in the coffin and signal to get off US treasuries once and for all.

2026-04-15 15:59:08 UTC

Mainstream #macro podcast inviting guests that have non-mainstream views talking about niche assets.. should tell you something. Gradually, then suddenly.
@nprofile…szx8 on the #PBD Podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/live/Ly3-gXJOIc4
#economy #finance #bitcoin

2026-04-15 14:04:58 UTC

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"Funny" that if happens, it could result with a "genocide" to punish another genocide for how many people are involved/complicit/partecipant 😅

2026-04-15 13:05:35 UTC

Many don't understand how much the Iranian thing is diverting (or maybe always was? 27Dchess?!) to an #economic war against China..
#nevent1q…c2cs

2026-04-14 13:37:04 UTC

Soon on your feeds:
Strait of #Malacca and the importance of Sulfuric Acid in the world #economy for fertilizers production, chemicals manufacturing, metal processing, batteries, oil refining..
We are learning geography and much more thanks to 2026! Lol
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/0gL51nblJZg/hq720.jpg?sqp=-oaymwEhCK4FEIIDSFryq4qpAxMIARUAAAAAGAElAADIQj0AgKJD&rs=AOn4CLDpiuqiaiz3nQqBCRRS8so2dVT0gw
#nevent1q…pjm2

2026-04-14 12:26:53 UTC

How is it going..?
#nevent1q…3986
#nevent1q…0uw5
#58k gang, does it hurt?

2026-04-11 11:03:26 UTC

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That's a very positive way to look at it 🤣😂🫂

2026-04-10 10:21:21 UTC

UPDATE: after almost ten days I must recognise this call was wrong, at least in time.
I still do see #gold going lower from here, chances of a -18% are higher then going up +10% from here in next days/weeks. https://i.nostr.build/OoORpEWzGo0SpsyH.png
I do see a confirmation on that also if compared it with #Bitcoin and this weekly chart looks very bullish for the latter.. probably because you can't buy Oil in the Ormuz strait with gold.. lol
Jokes apart #btc looks very bullish in weeks ahead IMHO https://i.nostr.build/8qC7kU6FkZgXekxn.png
#macro #finance #economy #charts
#nevent1q…as9r

2026-04-09 07:46:34 UTC

GM
https://blossom.primal.net/33e217731c987c1b1481cc4298d947f5bd7c14e39861ba97a0658532d85b1062.webp

2026-04-07 23:52:30 UTC

UPDATE: https://i.nostr.build/jMhzvhRSwrcuXqKe.png
#nevent1q…epqp

2026-04-07 12:52:54 UTC

I believe #oil is overbought at moment, I do see it retracing down +10% at least from here..
Current $OIL price is 115.58$ and target would be 98/100$.. 🔮
#macro #economy #finance

2026-04-06 07:56:06 UTC

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😂😜🫡

2026-04-06 07:55:33 UTC

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Yes, #YESTR 🫡

2026-04-06 07:55:12 UTC

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When intuition ans astrology meet, often magic happens ahahah 🫡😜

2026-04-05 23:29:05 UTC

UPDATE: Well.. https://i.nostr.build/gzZvBCgZhvsBJt5r.png #macro #bitcoin #btc #chart #stoopidlines #economy
#nevent1q…8pd0

2026-04-05 08:17:17 UTC

All #markets are closed for Easter (happy Easter!) but #bitcoin isn't, so here you are a short term most likely scenario until next market's open. https://i.nostr.build/FHsDeTho5fvPplLe.png I do see it bullish if 66.500 can act as support as it looks like, and so we'll basically see it again where it was before Trump's speech, classic (mini) Bart Simpson (reverse) pattern.. 😅😂
#macro #btc #finance #chart #economy

2026-04-02 11:41:19 UTC

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UPDATE: the 10yr followed the line and corrected to then raising straight up after Trump's speech while the 2yr first acted in time differently while still touching key points.
Both signalling tension raises as soon as Trump's speak as instead of giving clarity it does create uncertainty as none can predict his next move.. markets don't like that.
https://i.nostr.build/YkK4uCHHoEMij3WN.png
https://i.nostr.build/oIUiay5akCeZu3sv.png
I still see a tranding range going into the end of week.. after that will try to see to imagine a scenario for rest of weeks and month ahead.
#macro #economy #bonds #charts #finance

2026-04-02 11:34:49 UTC

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Forgot to add this.. https://i.nostr.build/iuhLnMB8Jy6Y7tqp.png

2026-04-02 11:32:10 UTC

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UPDATE: less than a day and 95$ was about to get tested, it went as I thought sharpply down to 96.5 approaching low levels when.. #Trump have his speech and.. Kabum! 😂 So I would say this short term #stoopidline worked ✅
We are back in the prior high range, still following the long trend scenario I draw some days ago. I still don't see prices to break 120 and stay over there. https://i.nostr.build/EZAsPEB3Ia1Np56O.png
#macro #oil #economy #chart

2026-03-31 13:46:39 UTC

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Oh that's so cool! So this must be sooo interesting times for you with all this fuss about oil 😅😅🤣
I do come from completely different sectors (sport/tv/hospitality) but since found and studied bitcoin.. well you know how it goes, rabbit holes after rabbit holes. No end..

2026-03-31 13:31:20 UTC

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Thank you!! I made this alternative npub so people that aren't interested in charts and economic stuff don't get bothered ahaha
I appreciate the follows 🫂
P.s. I am not financial litterate in any sort, my ideas do come from only by watching charts in the last 5+ years.

2026-03-31 13:29:33 UTC

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I don't think is absurd to see over 100k already this year. Over 95k the sentiment would completely change and FOMO will kick for many so.. ATH absolutely possible this year towards the end.
If I would have to bet.. I would say In October we are over 90k already.

2026-03-31 13:27:09 UTC

#GOLD looks still weak IMO.. I do see another leg down to liquidate last bunch of retailers speculators that bought the top in last months.
Of course I draw a line for next days going into first week of April.. https://i.nostr.build/ULj3FXS86wn7lbol.png
#macro #economy #chart #finance

2026-03-31 12:14:21 UTC

Since Iran war started looks like #bitcoin doesn't care that much, or at least Seller looks more exhausted than in other markets.
Short term chart looks weak as it was rejected at 69k.. anyway I do see another try to break it or be close tonit as both weeklt and monthly chart are about to close.
I draw a line..
https://i.nostr.build/kkoxIlzxk6hLc5Gg.png
#macro #btc #chart #economy #stoopidlines

2026-03-31 11:42:02 UTC

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@nprofile…wf9r here it is..
#nevent1q…p3ls

2026-03-31 11:41:42 UTC

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Thanks sir 🫡

2026-03-31 11:40:20 UTC

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I see, thanks for this info, makes a lot of sense. Before the Iran war started I assumed it was about to happen something because of how Oil price moved towards and then broke that 65$ per barrel level.
Will try to find the note and post down here..

2026-03-31 10:50:37 UTC

US 2yr and 10yr bonds chart combined with Oil is what would signal in the best waybhow market sentiment is.
Both charts reached very important key resistance level and since there are correcting. Bearish divergence in both chart and the most likely scenario isnfor both to go lower.
I draw some line..
https://i.nostr.build/riqlX4XBXDgdSqki.png
https://i.nostr.build/efpJSP1XVyuLVINR.png
Inflation expectations are silly if correlated with Oil raise (120/150$), as it will move consumers price higher for very short term, while starting a Recession.. IMHO.
https://youtu.be/wlHwsBvur5M
#macro #economy #bonds #10yr #2yr #charts

2026-03-31 10:27:13 UTC

#Oil short term looks a bit overbought. There is also a clear bear divergence between with RSI. Doesn't mean it couldn't do a small leg up more (109$?) to then retrace sharply.
I believe 95$ is about to be tested again in next 2 days max.
Draw a line.. https://i.nostr.build/7CwYpURn6fVSetvU.png
#macro #oil #chart #economy

2026-03-30 12:00:33 UTC

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Yeah I agree with you, I used the 15 mins to draw a shorter term line 😜.
Anyway the bullish divergence with RSI I was looking for you can spot it also on the 4hr, nice bounce, and yes now 69(420😜) is key.
On daily looks very nice also.. few.

2026-03-30 08:29:27 UTC

Bonds are signalling something all over the world..
https://youtu.be/2Ewg77MzHEg
#nevent1q…g9ue

2026-03-30 08:10:33 UTC

Well I guess this aged very well..
https://i.nostr.build/SfT5i1W55iMgZOy7.png
#bitcoin #chart #economy #macro
#nevent1q…4qrd

2026-03-30 08:09:12 UTC

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Stoopid lines did it.. 👀
https://i.nostr.build/SfT5i1W55iMgZOy7.png

2026-03-30 05:15:44 UTC

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Covid low were made because completely block of the world and stop of comsume and so oil demand.
To see something like it basically you are calling a depression, not even a recession.
Could be, but I don't see that yet.. they'll not allow and print first otherwise people would revolt.

2026-03-30 00:51:03 UTC

https://youtu.be/yIpipJl9zqs
#oil #macro #economy
#nevent1q…3vfl

2026-03-29 23:12:20 UTC

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Even if retreat, to re-establish production levels and delivery it will take months.
Price will still stay high for months, oil stable under 75$ would be the signal things are going better.
.. Do gas.

2026-03-29 23:09:16 UTC

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@nprofile…3acz

2026-03-29 23:08:51 UTC

Yeah.. exactly something like this. This rebound is what I imagined but now let's see how it develops.
https://i.nostr.build/eiJc2WE3D1erGjLZ.png
#bitcoin #chart #economy #macro
#nevent1q…tlu7

2026-03-29 11:49:32 UTC

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Can look very nice IMO, I would like to see price under the last 65k low with a higher RSI..

2026-03-28 07:33:08 UTC

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Not an expert in oil but I read the costs for oil production went drastically down over the last ten years and already a price of 55$ per gallon was expensive enough to make some profit for middle east region's producers.

2026-03-28 01:00:04 UTC

Oil is unpredictable now but just let's say it isn't and I had to draw how the chart would look like in some weeks. https://i.nostr.build/fSFPtzHnkrKICgZS.png
https://i.nostr.build/Rc9ULUuuvQA3oHGG.png
You can see the important levels:
<75$ all good you can chill everything is gonna be alright..
80/110$ it's a shit situation, you can't do nothing anyway so touch grass enjoy family and friends.
>120$ buckle up, hopefully you stored some ammo and guns, also you know how to light a fire with wood sticks..
#macro #oil #economy #charts

2026-03-28 00:50:05 UTC

I do see oil staying at high level for more weeks, so between 85/95$ as average fpr all summer.
Gold took a big hit because of war but mostly since it was overextend and almost up only for months.
Probably now gold is in the lows, and Oil at 100$ is in the high range (unless really big shits happen).
https://i.nostr.build/XUXxQXaB5p724vTI.png
#macro #economy #gold #oil #charts
#nevent1q…52df

2026-03-27 18:14:57 UTC

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This could be that, the reason to understand is why they are, and if it just one or more, and I believe is more.
Markets are mispricing a raise of inflation because of oil, but usually that leads to deflation and recession period. Some are pricing rate hikes by the FED, but that's stupid IMO, they can't absolutely raise them.
Yeald curve control ia what they'll do..

2026-03-27 17:59:01 UTC

UPDATE: USD/JPY just breaking fundamental resistance.. in Japan things are about to crash, because of oil shortages in Asian markets very likely.
https://i.nostr.build/ZPcnATnqok06zPXi.png
#macro #economy #dollar #yen #charts
#nevent1q…w5r3

2026-03-27 15:36:17 UTC

#Nostr will have nice charts soon too.. 📉📈
https://i.nostr.build/nPLV9MYbWf6mRa9G.jpg https://i.nostr.build/aDmy4D9dvqLutmpV.jpg https://i.nostr.build/drhWnbphaqydMlBb.jpg
#growNostr #charts #analytics #trends

2026-03-27 12:58:46 UTC

Now at 45.83..
Unfortunately I deleted somehow that line, maybe should draw a new one.. #nevent1q…upkh #stoopidlines

2026-03-27 12:15:48 UTC

Something markets will not like and will be a catalyst is DXY breaking and stabilizing over 100.
Draw a line for this scenario unwinding in the next weeks.. https://i.nostr.build/114lI7QVtFUAwrgk.png https://i.nostr.build/dRPp0VRtuIl2jQud.png
#DXY #macro #economy #dollar

2026-03-27 11:50:43 UTC

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Absolutely True.. just think that since this article was built the National US debt grew up to 39T, very close to 40Trillion.. not sustainable.
They can just devalue the debt, devaluing the money purchasing power, inflating the currency, printing more money (debt).
Debt spyral..

2026-03-27 11:30:50 UTC

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Looks like it..
#nevent1q…g9ue

2026-03-27 10:50:19 UTC

US BOND Market is signaling high level of tension.. key points in the 2Yr and 10Yr ..
https://i.nostr.build/myXZgQH3wvDqg8pG.png https://i.nostr.build/fCLdAqgR03xjfTkH.png
#macro #economy #chart #bonds #finance

2026-03-27 10:29:46 UTC

👀.. #nevent1q…fseu

2026-03-27 10:24:36 UTC

👀.. #nevent1q…uudf

2026-03-27 10:23:50 UTC

Before Silver squeeze 👀.. #nevent1q…4dyv

2026-03-27 10:21:29 UTC

👀.. #nevent1q…kz36

2026-03-27 10:20:50 UTC

👀.. #nevent1q…f7gp

2026-03-27 10:19:11 UTC

👀.. #nevent1q…x80h

2026-03-27 10:17:47 UTC

👀.. #nevent1q…fyw8

2026-03-27 10:16:28 UTC

👀.. #nevent1q…ml6k