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Last Notes

2026-06-01 06:03:30 UTC

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Bite Size Economics No. 3
'markets are never free'
The idea that in some ideal world markets can be free misunderstands how markets work; they are dependent on property & contract laws shaped by the state (or in earlier times the local political authority).
Historically markets have operated without formal laws, but even then community trust & local authority set the norms for market interactions.
All markets are regulated the issue is how & by whom?
#BiteSizeEconomics #economics #markets

2026-06-01 05:42:17 UTC

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As noted at the bottom of the post, its a story in the FT... if you can get behind the paywall here's a link to the article.
https://www.ft.com/content/5c8a871f-9a49-45f4-9ac0-543a608a5a9d?syn-25a6b1a6=1

2026-06-01 05:28:09 UTC

In another hint of the slow but sure pivot away from the US engineered by the Tangerine Tyrant, it looks like the Norwegians, having rejected membership of the EU twice, are again (seriously) considering a move to join the EU in light of the changing global political environment.
There is of course 'many a slip twixt cup & lip' but even the serious consideration of such a move tells us much about how the USA's position in the global political economy is changing!
#EU #Norway #politics
h/t FT

2026-05-31 12:48:38 UTC

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yes, the very wealthy, for whom US healthcare is world class....

2026-05-31 08:02:23 UTC

While many of us are critical of the lack of custodial sentence for sexual assault by young perpetrators (given the seriousness of the crimes & the impact on the victims), this is not to argue that imprisonment of young offenders is working... it clearly isn't.
The care, offence, prison, reoffending cycle suggests that for a key group of young people whose circumstances are already dysfunctional, society is failing to extricate them from an environment that encourages criminality.
#politics

2026-05-31 07:39:39 UTC

Q. as Tony Blair says the public would back a 'rethinking of healthcare', we might ask why whenever a 'rethinking' of healthcare is proposed its always about how the private sector involvement can be expanded, not how we might better fund & support both existing public provision & the woefully underfunded preventative aspects of public health?
Its almost like politicians talking about health had already been bought up by private health care providers.... oh, hold on.
#NHS #health #healthcare

2026-05-31 07:15:28 UTC

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Bite Size Economics No. 2
'Money is trust'
Money is usually seen as a store of value or a means of exchange but these functions depend on its manifestation of trust.
We trust money is acceptable to others (in the form we want to use from paper money to digital payments); we trust its value is (at least in the medium term) relatively stable.
When our trust declines so does money's stability (inflation, barter exchange). So, without our trust money cannot work!
#BiteSizeEconomics #economics

2026-05-28 05:49:04 UTC

There's been a lot of coverage of the forthcoming report by Alan Milburn on young people's work prospects, but what is refreshing is that he seems to be rejecting the usual victim blaming & rather focussing on the dysfunctional structures & systems that young people confront when trying to find their way into the workforce.
This change of emphasis is very welcome, but whether it will find its way into any policy responses is a different matter.
#workers #politics
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy026x9jpd0o

2026-05-28 05:41:23 UTC

Disappointingly, but all to predictably Jonathan Liew exercise a long critique of X (formally Twitter), but concludes that the 'utopian idea of the digital town square is dead for ever' without even mentioning Mastodon, which while not perfect (seem to me) to get quite a long way towards that ideal....
We've noted before how (wilfully?) blind to Mastodon mainstream journalists are, so we shouldn't be surprised, just disappointed (again).
#mastodon #SocialMedia
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/28/still-on-x-ask-yourself-why-platform-twitter-malign-actors-misinformation

2026-05-27 17:32:36 UTC

The reform of university financing & specifically the student loan system will only come when we reject the notion that most (or indeed all) the benefits of attending university are captured by graduates (the business model that sees them pick up the entire headline cost of tuition).
A university educated cohort is a major pubic good in many ways & so the Govt. *should* take on a significant proportion (if not all) the cost(s)....
#politics #universities
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2026/may/27/tax-on-ambition-graduates-tell-all-to-student-loans-inquiry

2026-05-26 17:19:02 UTC

To no-one's surprise, given the (justified) uproar about the sentencing in the Hampshire juvenile rape trial are now to be officially reviewed....
Certainly the boys themselves may have their problems, but these cannot outweigh the life changing damage & harm done to the victims.
For the Rule of Law to work justice has to be seen to be done, and in this case the Judge came nowhere near....
#politics #RuleOfLaw
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2026/may/26/court-of-appeal-to-review-sentences-of-teenage-boys

2026-05-26 17:13:52 UTC

As its is announced that HS2 spent £65mn on consultants in 2025 to figure out it 'reset', the most expensive railway in the world has become a classic example of what is wrong with the UK.
Mangers don't know what they're doing so hire consultant who will say whatever they think will maximise their fee;
The idea of the public good is evacuated of meaning & is only measured using monetised cost-benefit analysis;
the political cycle destroys everything it touches.
#HS2 #politics
h/t FT

2026-05-26 07:17:04 UTC

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Indeed, great (and important) point - boosted!

2026-05-25 08:34:53 UTC

The Bear sums up the great Right wing hypocrisy in their 'discussion' of migration - its not the issue of migration that's the underlying problem, its who the migrants are... and of course we knew this, but good to have ti so summarily laid out!
(one might also see this instructive on why right wing 'ex-pats' who voted for Brexit, then were surprised to discover the EU was no longer quite so welcoming to their residency preferences).
#migration #politics #brexit
https://www.bearlypolitics.co.uk/p/the-great-migration-fannywobble
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/634/286/338/774/147/original/466a745cb376b495.png

2026-05-24 08:47:53 UTC

If you're interested in the shape & extent of inequality in the UK, then you'll be wanting to spend some time examining the conclusions of the Deaton Review on Inequality that has recently concluded six years research.
I'm not going to try to summarise their conclusions but note, as they point out: 'inequalities are themselves a sign that something is not working well in the way that markets are functioning'!
The UK's economic system is dysfunctional!
#inequality
https://ifs.org.uk/articles/evidence-action-what-six-years-research-tells-us-about-challenging-inequalities

2026-05-24 08:38:04 UTC

Why do (some) people find ReformUK Ltd appealing?
Well, we might focus on the state's contempt of ordinary people, exhibited from the Grenfell fire, to the Post Office scandal, from Windrush to the infected blood scandal.
The Fascist Frog is a charlatan, but his appeal to ordinary people ('I'm like you') despite being demonstrably) false is key... and this is why Zack Polanski's videos have seen the Green Party of England & Wales' support rise.
People are fed up with the contempt!
#politics

2026-05-24 08:26:42 UTC

Meanwhile in the Straits of Hormuz, the Iranians have established a toll system that sees payment in Renminbi and/or in kind (in various forms), despite the bluster of the Tangerine Tyrant.
In the end the US/Israeli attacks on Iran, will likely have raised the costs to shipping in the area (to Iran's benefit) & also revealed the leverage control of the Straits' can give... although as other routes/methods are developed for shipping oil out of the region, such leverage may not last.
#politics

2026-05-24 07:17:12 UTC

As Chase Foster & Jeff Frieden conclude:
'Economic insecurity remains a powerful driver of political discontent. The design of social policy therefore matters'...
When the protection of communities from the disruption of the global market & swift technological changes to work, is regarded as 'too expensive' or economically inefficient, then Right populism (and its mis-directed blame game) can prosper.
The welfare state remains a bulwark against the Right.
#politics
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2026/05/18/welfare-spending-reduces-populism-support/
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/628/312/590/456/099/original/fb110847943fc615.png

2026-05-23 17:09:50 UTC

The Labour Party has presided over a rise in political prisoners in the UK (what else would you call people imprisoned for protesting about environmental issues or the situation in Gaza?).
When we wonder whether the Labour Party is the bulwark against the right that it still wants to present itself as, we might wonder how this differs from what a ReformUK Ltd Govt. might do?
And if you defend Labour as the better of two evils, then we really are lost!
#politics
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2026/may/23/anti-protest-sentences-rise-england-wales-political-prisoners

2026-05-23 07:14:51 UTC

More on the accelerating Ebola crisis in the DRC.
Without wishing to be alarmist (but accepting that it will sound that way) this is starting to remind me of the reports that were coming out of Wuhan in the January & February before we knew to call the health crisis about to engulf the world 'Covid'.
There's many way this may not come to pass, not least of all due to the lessons learnt during the pandemic six years ago, but nonetheless, I'm getting worried.
#ebola
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/23/ebola-virus-spread-drc-democratic-republic-of-congo

2026-05-22 05:52:51 UTC

My problem with the argument that progressive voters & parties should get behind Andy Burnham to defeat ReformUK Ltd, is its just one more example of Labour's entitlement; their view that they remain the key opposition to the far right.
Rather, Labour has legitimised & normalised rightest views & policies, and has been antagonistic towards any notion of the development of a progressive alliance.
How much longer should/can we accept Labour's (now pretty clearly) empty promises?
#politics
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/616/657/445/059/732/original/58ab468457962104.png

2026-05-21 17:35:42 UTC

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Yes, its all a bit odd isn't it

2026-05-21 17:20:25 UTC

So, the Green Party of England & Wales' candidate for the Makersfield by-election has pulled out for 'personal & family reasons'; as such a new candidate will now need to be found (pretty quickly).
Many might wonder if this is the first stage in the GPEW seeking to give Andy Burnham an easier ride in the by-election?
This, as has been discussed here over the last couple of days, is a potentially contentious move, if this *is* what it is.
#politics #greens #Makersfield
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq6pver77gpo

2026-05-21 17:14:29 UTC

In 1990 UK billionaires had wealth equivalent to 4% of GDP, now they have wealth equivalent to 22% of GDP... and have hollowed out the UK's economy where the fruits of labours effort & innovation are captured by an elite who are getting richer & richer while the rest of us are trapped in an economy that fails to provide even a basic level of wellbeing & comfort for many.
The Labour Party no longer has an answer to this, if it ever did!
#inequality #politics #wealth
https://equalitytrust.org.uk/news/ghost-gdp-billionaire-britain-and-the-hollow-economy/

2026-05-21 05:45:48 UTC

The Green Party of England & Wales looks like deciding not to make a major showing in Makerfield, to give Andy Burnham a better shot at winning the by-election.
A Green official told the FT:
'We do not want this one to go to Reform & to be quite frank we do not want Labour to be able to turn around and say ‘if you vote Green, you’re actually voting Reform’ because that will be used for the next three years...
[so] actually, this isn’t going to be a big priority or a Green target'
#politics

2026-05-21 05:30:43 UTC

We know the rise of the Greens & ReformUK Ltd has shifted voters away from supporting the Labour Party. The Economist used these results to match the age & work profile of workers to map this transition between 2021 & 2026.
The diagram below offer a (further) stark demonstration of why the Labour Party is wrong-headed in their aping of ReformUK, not least because their support from such wider base is moving to the Green Party of England & Wales.
#politics #Greens
h/t Andy Cotgreave/LinkedIn
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/610/894/740/573/915/original/663f9987c579afb1.jpeg

2026-05-20 17:31:55 UTC

Well, well, well, a housing provider that has been channelling state grants into its provision of social housing via a complex financial engineering model has (on going into administration) resulted in the potential privatisation of homes built with state grants.... while the grants look likely not be recovered.
Its not as if anyone could have predicted that involving private equity in social hosing might result in money flowing to 'investors' & not housing?
#housing
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/may/20/social-housing-investment-firms-heylo-administration

2026-05-19 20:34:24 UTC

In the slow moving programme to hold someone (anyone!) to account for the death at the Grenfell Tower fire, the police have reached the stage of passing CPS charges against 77 companies (and individuals) for potential wrongdoing.
However, trials are some time off & so once again we are left with justice still being delayed meaning justice is still being denied.
#Grenfell #politics
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/may/19/grenfell-fire-police-criminal-charges-companies-individuals

2026-05-19 17:41:09 UTC

Anyone who thinks the two stories related in the piece below about disabled people being marooned in hospital as their integrated home care package cannot be agreed, has nothing to do with budgeting is missing what is going on in the engineered crisis of the NHS & the care sector.
As always its vulnerable people who are trying to live their best lives (but needing support to do so) who are the target of spreadsheet wielding managers.
#disability #NHS #health
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2e2zvlyy38o

2026-05-19 06:03:38 UTC

Q. what should the Green Party of England & Wales do in the Makerfeld by-election?
Should they reign back to give Andy Burnham a better chance but demand action of electoral reform (perhaps)?
Should they fight the seat on the grounds they could win... and any 'splitting' of the Left vote is Labour's problem not their's?
There are no easy answers here, but the vey fact this *is* an issue, actually reflects the rising success of the GPEW!
#Makerfield #Greens #politics
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/18/greens-andy-burnham-makerfield-byelection-reform

2026-05-19 05:19:46 UTC

If you wanted an indication of why the world needs the International Criminal Court, it now seems that while in Beijing the Tangerine Tyrant suggested to Xi Jinping might help coordinate a joint move against the ICC with Russia, with the TT claiming that it was in all three leaders' interest to see the Court neutered.
The ICC may not be perfect but if Trump, Xi & Putin all think its dangerous then we might conclude its doing something right?
#ICC #politics #InternationalLaw
h/t FT

2026-05-18 21:25:14 UTC

Your regular reminder that while UK politicians can discuss whether we should seek to rejoin the EU & what sort of 'red-lines' we might hold to.... actually the only view(s) that matters is the EU Commission's & EU Leaders' - and as not infrequently pointed out there is little appetite to cut the UK a deal - no, if we want to rejoin, we rejoin as 'normal' new member....
It would still be a good deal, but reconfirms Brexit as political self-harming!
#EU #UK #Brexit
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/18/no-tailor-made-deal-uk-eu-brexit-officials-rejoin

2026-05-18 21:17:44 UTC

Hmmm.... so now Andy Burnham is saying he will keep with Rachel Reeves (revised) fiscal rules *and* end austerity.
Looks like we've swiftly returned to having your cake and eating it territory unless he has a clever trick up his sleeve?
Well, I guess now we wait for the detail(s).....
#politics

2026-05-18 21:14:18 UTC

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So, perhaps for the North, the issue is whether without the Olympics, any investment would be funnelled towards these areas? At least the Olympics might bring some benefit, even if it diluted & incomplete, which is still more than what would come from an absence of investment - but then again, one might want to argue for a different form of regional development (if only one could get it actually to materialise)?

2026-05-18 17:30:26 UTC

'A lot of working-class people, they don’t want a lot', says Martin a former miner. 'They want enough to get by & to have nicer things in life. To go on holiday & to have good food and things like that. They are not bothered about yachts and aeroplanes... They are just happy enough to get through in life with a job, a secure job to pay the mortgage & to look after their family'
And the problem is the UK *doesn't* achieve even that for many!
#inequality #politics
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/18/reform-voters-progressive-post-industrial-northern-england

2026-05-18 17:06:46 UTC

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Ok, you're convincing me.... I have no dog in this race, so happy to accept I was being too optimistic about the likely benefits up North

2026-05-18 14:34:48 UTC

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The Q. I guess is whether a multi-city North of England bid might be able to square that circle - I'm sure you'd say no, but I did wonder (hence the post)

2026-05-18 06:05:45 UTC

While I understand why London's Mayor might criticise the development of an Olympics bid focussed on the North of England, the idea that this is a wasted opportunity gets the logic the wrong way round; the wasted opportunity would be if London (again) gained the investment & activity involved in hosting rather than that being focussed on the North.
Let's not continually fall for the logic that only London has the infrastructure required for global events!
#politics
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/may/17/london-mayor-sadiq-khan-plans-north-of-england-olympics

2026-05-18 05:44:54 UTC

In Birmingham, ReformUK Ltd, the largest party has declined to form a local administration (there's no prospective coalition partners), while Labour (the previous administration) will not form any coalition, leaving the Green Party of England & Wales to the (impossible?) task of forming an administration for the largest local authority in Europe.
Might this be Reform looking to avoid any more mistakes in local Govt. while giving the Greens a 'fools errand' likely to fail?
#Birmingham
h/t FT

2026-05-17 18:26:55 UTC

Whatever you think about the levels of profitability in the UK's economy, one thing is clear voters are vastly over-estimating how much firms make in profits.... but perhaps most telling (in this misunderstanding of what is going on) is the apparent perception that the NHS makes a profit (although there is a chance respondents didn't properly understand the Q.?).
(And of course this was carried out by the right wing Inst. for Economic Affairs, no doubt to prove a point!)
#economics #business
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/591/318/023/277/570/original/8aa16f671765fac5.png

2026-05-17 10:24:50 UTC

Here are The Bear's musings on Saturday's Unite the Kingdom rally, in which he suggests it was all a bit sad (a damp squib), perhaps not quite the nationalistic uprising promised by Stephen Yaxley-Lennon & his associates....
the Bear suggests:
'The whole rally felt less like a protest & more like a networking event themed around “How to be Racist Online and Earn Money!'
So, does the Americanisation of the Far Right preface its failure or its renewal?
#politics
https://www.bearlypolitics.co.uk/p/the-far-right-has-become-a-bit-sad

2026-05-17 10:01:18 UTC

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Yes, I think there's a growing recognition that this 'long game' of conflation is a major contributor to the manner in which the two are now seen (politically) as interchangeable even when there are formal declarations that they are not;
its another case of patient engineered inculcation (which one might compare to the similar sorts of 'campaigns' in fiscal & public economics - see for instance the long-running critique developed by Simon Wren Lewis of 'media macro').

2026-05-17 08:45:38 UTC

When Yvette Cooper rejected legal advice & wrote a column criticising Palestine Action, while activists were being tried, did she (as the defence alleged) interfere with the judicial process making a fair trial more difficult or as the Judge concluded only risk 'causing some prejudice to these proceedings, but that is different from deliberately flouting a reporting restriction order'?
I think the defence was right; it was an attempt to prejudice the trial!
#politics
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/may/17/yvette-cooper-palestine-action-article-despite-cps-warning-trial

2026-05-17 08:03:56 UTC

This weekend is demonstrating an unwavering truth of political reporting...
Media commenters & analysts decry the chaotic psychodrama of leadership challenges & churn in the top job (with tales of its negative impact on UK politics & economics and the UK's international standing)... yet;
they find it hard to hide their glee at filling their papers (and online presence) with speculation, profiles of possible contenders & argument(s) around 'new starts' for the Govt.
[grinds teeth]
#politics

2026-05-16 21:46:42 UTC

Ahmed Najar argues:
'Criticism of Russia is not treated as hatred towards Russians. Opposition to American wars is not automatically framed as hostility towards Americans as a people. Protest against the Chinese government is not assumed to be anti-Chinese racism.
Only when it comes to Israel does this distinction repeatedly collapse.
That collapse carries consequences'
#politics
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/5/16/britain-is-losing-the-ability-to-tell-anti-semitism-from-dissent

2026-05-16 17:10:56 UTC

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Its certainly contributing to the stagnation but it is not the only aspect to the problem - a lack of increase in productivity plus a major problem with financial resources being directed into property (which one might argue, I accept, is part of the distribution issue) alongside more amorphous problems like the UK's problem wth 'management' and the de-valuing of much productive education.... and so on - all of these compound or are compounded *by* maldistribution

2026-05-16 08:05:57 UTC

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I agree up to a point; but while distribution is clearly an issue, if we look at GDP per capita (which doesn't factor in distribution, as many complain), we are down in the mid-20s (and slowly falling) rather than being the sixth (or seventh) largest economy in the world, which is how those using absolute GDP data present it.... better distribution might help the immediate issues of social depravation, but would not change the ongoing situation that I presented in the post

2026-05-16 07:37:41 UTC

As predicted, Keir Starmer's position has weakened sufficiently & the resulting intra-party political calculations have shifted so that Labour's NEC having only three months ago blocked Andy Burnham from standing in a by-election for Labour, have now voted through his candidacy to confirmed through a swift (and likely unopposed) candidate selection during next week.
Now the Q. is: will have actually win the by-election? Or will the Greens (or perhaps ReformUK Ltd) steal it?
#politics
h/t FT

2026-05-16 07:21:31 UTC

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We essentially have two choices:
cut our cloth accordingly - accept our global position and organise our political economy accordingly; or,
seek out strategies that can underpin world class sectors (such as universities) while accelerating areas where we can be world class (green energy perhaps).
There is some move on the latter but the current plight of the university sector is indicative of the underlying problem with our political class' views on what matters.

2026-05-16 07:12:11 UTC

The key problem of British politics is how to manage a country where the population expects a higher standard of living than its increasingly second league status can provide.
In one way or another we all suffer from a form of post-imperial, post-industrial entitled hubris.
The world has moved on leaving the UK with pockets of excellence dwarfed by sectors are far from world class.
Few politicians understand this or have a good plan to escape our predicament (if there is one?).
#politics

2026-05-14 21:10:32 UTC

If the rich are the most dangerous minority, it also needs to be said (as Steve Keen does) that:
'The most dangerous sincere believers on this planet are not religious extremists, but mainstream economists. They will destroy capitalism, precisely because they falsely believe that it is indestructible'!
However, for those of us brought up on Karl Marx, the idea that capitalism has within it the seed(s) of its own destruction (here in the guise of economists) is hardly news.....
#economics

2026-05-14 17:27:07 UTC

The care system is broken & only continues to run in any way at all because of unpaid carers.... they (we) need to be better supported, better funded & resourced, and perhaps most importantly respected fro what we do not treated like criminals by the DWP.
Louise Casey may well recognise all this, but its hardly new; what is actually needed urgently is a strategy for a positive change across the many dimensions of care.
#care #politics
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/may/14/millions-of-unpaid-uk-carers-living-in-agony-says-louise-casey

2026-05-14 17:22:46 UTC

And so once again Labour's NEC get the chance to either block or allow Andy Burnham to take a run at returning to the House of Commons....
It will be interesting to see how this drama plays out.... especially now Wes Streeting claims he wants a wide field for the Labour Party to choose their next leader from.
#politics
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/14/labour-mp-to-stand-down-to-allow-burnham-run-for-byelection-amid-leadership-row

2026-05-14 17:13:04 UTC

If Robert Shrimsley (FT) is right (he is), and, 'Britain is not ungovernable. It has just been very badly governed. In particular, it has endured a decade of woefully inept leadership. An era of slogans in place of details'.... the bigger Q. (bigger that the travails of this current Govt.) is why is this the case?
Only by understanding why we have such a dysfunctional politics can we start to change it.
Many will point to media ownership... and that has to be a major factor!
#politics

2026-05-14 13:16:54 UTC

So, Wes Streeting has resigned as Health Secretary, which for many (whatever comes next) may be a good thing... he has also (as yet) not broken cover on a leadership challenge.
My guess is his team are seeking to Angela Rayner's team to see if they can buy her off with a senior post - perhaps even Chancellor (or maybe not)?
No doubt all will become clearer as the day(s) progresses.
#politics

2026-05-14 07:41:00 UTC

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Yes the amateurism of British politics has long been evident

2026-05-14 06:05:36 UTC

John Kampfner, suggests politicians fail to really deal with problems because:
'They worry about the markets (with reason); they fret about conventional media & social media (with less reason). They wait for bad things to happen, trying to anticipate what their critics might say of them in case they put a foot out of line. It’s a self-fulfilling spiral'!
There's more to it than this, but this seem to capture an important aspect of our political problem(s)!
#politics
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/14/europe-big-problems-japan-taiwan-care-systems

2026-05-14 05:58:12 UTC

So, the HMRC has concluded there was no malice or intent in Angela Rayner's mistaken lower payment of stamp duty (and as a result no attempted tax avoidance).
As such she is now free to enter the fray around the leadership of the Labour Party.
For those who think a female leader from the broad left might be the answer to the party's travails this may be good news... or it may end up being another case of a women being 'allowed' to take on a hopeless case?
#politics
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/14/angela-rayner-cleared-hmrc-tax-affairs-labour-leadership-starmer

2026-05-14 05:31:52 UTC

As we wait for next weeks GDP data to drop (or perhaps we don't) Bloomberg is reporting (I have this second hadn't via LinkedIn, I'm not a Bloomberg subscriber) that people at the Bank of England doubt the veracity of the data (even on its own merits);
so we now seem to have the situation where the Office of National Statistics seems unable to produce data that convinces its neighbouring institutions.
The notion of the economy 'flying blind' will be becoming more common...
#economics

2026-05-13 20:22:14 UTC

Keir Starmer vs. Wes Streeting is about as politically interesting as two bald men fighting over a comb.... its a classic bit of change but no change, and suggests the Labour Party is clueless about why people are abandoning them.
Then the (more interesting) Q. is how would Andy Burnham vs. Wes Streeting play out, if Streeting gets past an increasingly truculent Starmer?
Or perhaps Burnham wouldn't have the appetite for a second leadership challenge in this Parliament?
#politics #LabourParty

2026-05-13 05:43:26 UTC

I'm not trying to keep up with the turmoil at the top of the Labour Party, but I think its safe to conclude two things:
1. Keir Starmer will be unlikely to lead the Labour Party into the next election;
2. But, he is unlikely to go quietly & may well cause even more damage to Labour's standing in his manoeuvring to stay in No.10.
Of course, for the Green Party of England & Wales the key strategy should be to allow the Labour Party to keep making mistakes unhindered.
#LabourParty #politics

2026-05-13 05:22:15 UTC

The UK's political & social-economic elites are more often educated at private school than the rest of the population....
Given, the problems the UK finds itself in (and the demand for 'change') perhaps we might wonder whether the underlying issue isn't productivity or management but rather the educational background of our political & business classes?
Perhaps that's what needs to change?
#politics #inequality #education
For more data from the Sutton Trust see:
https://elitistbritain.suttontrust.com
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/565/567/446/597/980/original/a44d730c3d9ef73f.jpeg

2026-05-12 20:16:04 UTC

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Certainly grounds for appeal, I would have thought, although the MoJ's line will be that conviction & sentence are separate & so nothing relevant to the conviction was withheld - so an appeal would be based on connecting these two aspects (back together)

2026-05-12 17:20:38 UTC

How worried is the Govt. that Palestine Action protestors have the sympathy of juries?
enough to hide from the jury the fact that they would e sentenced not as criminals (having been convicted of criminal damage) but rather as terrorists.
At best, its a grossly unjust manipulation of procedure, and at worst brings the justice system into disrepute as juries are being lied to (albeit by omission).
This Govt.'s 'respect' for the rule of law seems ever weaker!
#politics
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/may/12/palestine-action-activists-elbit-protest-terrorist-connection-ruling

2026-05-12 10:14:20 UTC

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Yes, chaotic & reactive nationalisation cannot ever be better than strategic & reasoned assessment of the shape & requirements of the state in such areas

2026-05-12 07:29:45 UTC

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but don't discount nostalgia as the driver for political positioning.... (see Brexit)

2026-05-12 06:08:17 UTC

For years there have been concerns that one or more English universities might fall into administration.
In the past when this has looked to be a real prospect, mergers & take-overs of vulnerable institutions have been stage managed by regulators;
but now, it would seem with so many institutions in various level of difficulty, the 24 institutions most at risk are more likely to close than to be rescued via consolidation.
Things are getting grim in HE!
#universities
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce3p93j3823o

2026-05-12 05:49:51 UTC

One way to be clear about the geographic wealth inequality in the UK is to look at inheritance tax receipts (remembering that only about 5% of estates pay IHT at all).
What we see is that such wealth is skewed towards London & SE England, which is no surprise but what perhaps is, is that across the London region IHT tax receipts were higher than totals for Scotland & Wales, together!
No wonder the rich were quietly backing the Farmers 'farm tax' protests!
#politics #wealth #inequality
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/560/024/450/279/060/original/6fc401a6a48c8032.png

2026-05-12 05:38:22 UTC

Since 1945, British Steel has been nationalised (1949), privatised (or had nationalisation 'reversed') (1952), nationalised (1967), privatised (1988), followed by a period of a succession of new owners from around the world... and now the Labour Party is going to (re)nationalise
To say, the UK has not got a clear idea how best to maintain a functioning steel industry is an understatement.... although the global commercial environment *doesn't* make it easy, to be fair.
#steel #economics

2026-05-11 16:53:57 UTC

The media seems relatively uninterested in the £5m in crypto-currency given tot he Facist Frog, but a lot more interested in the council tax affairs of Zack Polanski.
On one level this is a metric of how seriously the Right take the threat from Polanski & the Green Party of England & Wales.... on another level, given what happened to Jeremy Corbyn at the hands of an antagonistic media, we might have hoped he would have put his now house (boat) in order ahead of the game?
#Greens #politics

2026-05-11 05:43:39 UTC

For those concerned about Palantir's access to NHS patients' data the news that the soon to be closed NHS England is about to grant Palantir & its associated contractors 'unlimited access' to patient data in the NHS Federated Data Platform which includes the anonymisation function.... suggesting that Peter Thiel's firm will have the ability to access patient information prior to it being made anonymous.
More evidence that patient data privacy is not a priority at NHS-E
#palantir #NHS
h/t FT

2026-05-11 05:33:30 UTC

Hmmm... Tim Leunig (NESTA) suggests that one way round the UK's current problems with Gilt's rising yields would be to issue a proportion of public debt as €-denominated bonds, which would:
reduce the likely interest paid;
also make £-denominated bonds more attractive by reduction of issue(s);
sidestep the risk of a run on Gilts driven by sterling-focussed assessment of risk(s).
What he doesn't note is it would also be a good sign of alignment with the EU!
#economics #politics
h/t FT

2026-05-10 16:59:55 UTC

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Fair point; not quite sure what the best comparator would be, not least as one might argue that the set going private have been so cheery picked as to distort comparisons (in practical terms if not theoretical ones)?

2026-05-10 16:58:00 UTC

At a rally in London today to protest against anti-semitism, the Fascist Frog (who you will recall has been accused of anti-semtiism when he was younger) was invited as ReformUK Ltd's representative & excluded the Green Party of England & Wales (and its leader Zack Polanski).
As the GPEW observed:
'It does feel like the world is upside down when Reform are invited to be part of an initiative to tackle antisemitism but the Green Party — and its Jewish leader — aren’t'!
#politics
h/t FT

2026-05-10 16:40:26 UTC

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Hmmm... yes, I can see that; when I was talking about the free-rider problems I was thinking explicitly about the patients being pushed back to the NHS with complications - I guess the Q. is whether dealing with the consequences of the complications (if we are to be economically brutal) is more or less than an initial successful procedure within the NHS facility?

2026-05-10 15:35:01 UTC

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Interesting:
1. yes, agree; would need to be carefully structured if developed;
2. its already there, surely?
3. this is the classic free-rider & collective action problem as regards public goods, isn't it?

2026-05-10 10:20:28 UTC

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aha, well that is of course a classic Q.: as has been said often - whoever you vote for the Govt. gets in

2026-05-10 10:17:29 UTC

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I would not agree with that assessment of not-voting - there are many reasons for not but you cannot really implied support for a party from that (see proviso reply in this thread too)

2026-05-10 10:14:53 UTC

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Good point; use the NHS privatisation agenda against the private sector; I'm liking this sort of jujitsu politics

2026-05-10 08:06:26 UTC

The NHS effectively subsidises private health care by picking up the pieces when patients become too ill for the private clinics/hospitals to deal with.
The Centre for Health & the Public Interest finds up to 6,000 patients a year are transferred from private to NHS facilities due to complications (& these are only the direct transfers, not those after treatment) costing the NHS at least £250m a year.
The NHS should be (at the very least) paid for these 'rescues'!
#health #NHS
h/t Observer

2026-05-10 07:21:37 UTC

Before we take at face value much of the commentary this weekend on the continuing political ascendance of the Facist Frog & ReformUK Ltd, its worth just putting their vote in the local elections in some context.
As many have noted even with their success ReformUK Ltd still on control a very small proportion of *all* local councils, but its also worth noting than less than 10% of eligible voters cast a vote from the Frog & his associates.
#politics #ReformUK
h/t Dan Södergren/LinkenIn
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/549/064/064/045/052/original/1fcefb772ecb3352.jpeg

2026-05-09 10:07:29 UTC

Once again the FT reports things are not well in the AltNet sector of broadband provision, with a number of operators struggling to find sufficient users to cover the investment costs of digging in full-fibre optic networks....
And at the same time B4RN (Broadband for the Rural North) continues to organically expand through the work of communities to bring world class broadband to non-urban areas.
Its almost like a community business model is more effective than a commercial one?
#broadband

2026-05-09 09:07:18 UTC

You'll see a lot of commentary this weekend about how the results of Thursday's local elections signal a major change in English politics;
what it really may show is politics beyond the M25 (outside the cosy Westminster Village's historic duopoly) has (re)asserted itself for good or ill (depending on which party you may support).
What has really changed is that that voters have finally given up on mainstream parties doing anything for them; what that will lead to is another matter!
#politics

2026-05-09 07:36:10 UTC

Meanwhile in Scotland the Scottish National Party & other parties have done a pretty good job of keeping ReformUK Ltd at bay; Reform came joint third tying with the Greens & LibDems, even if this suggests their support in Scotland is higher than many might have presumed...
In Wales ReformUK Ltd came second behind Plaid Cymru, keeping PC from a majority. Here the ReformUK Ltd surge was perhaps a lot more remarkable, but I'll leave it to Welsh Mastodon to post on the implications.
#politics

2026-05-09 07:26:21 UTC

Over the next couple of years we may well see a phenomenon well known to social scientists; a well-publicised prediction can change behaviour to undermine the original prediction....
As bookies make ReformUK Lt the favourite to win the next election, so voters behaviour may shift towards both tactical voting to keep Reform out (of which there is already some evidence from the last general election) and being supportive of a 'popular front' form of alliance (to the same end).
#politics

2026-05-09 07:20:08 UTC

Two obvious trends from Thursday's elections:
The Fascist Frog & ReformUK Ltd have gained most in areas where the Brexit vote was most evident;
The Green Party of England & Wales has done best where voters are younger.
(Given that the Brexit vote itself was quite strongly age-determined a decade ago, we might conclude that the GPEW is in a better demographic position than Reform?)
#politics #Brexit
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/543/382/374/226/447/original/1f2e02ecd5d7195d.png
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/543/385/804/522/544/original/95838f2624d63fe2.png

2026-05-09 07:12:33 UTC

Now the majority of results are in the shape of the Green Party of England & Wales' 'surge' is clearer - their best result (ever?) in local elections, leaving them in control of four councils (and a major role in the large number that now have no overall control) but as the result for individual seats show, dwarfed by ReformUK Ltd's larger success.
However, Zack Polanski & the GPEW should be reasonably happy especially if they treat this election as a 'proof of concept'!
#politics #greens
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/543/360/818/431/619/original/6209743c0f76d5b9.png

2026-05-08 09:36:14 UTC

One thing we might observe if the English local council results continue in the vein of so far this morning, is that the Green Party of England & Wales may be heading for its highest vote share in local elections, and perhaps most importantly is increasingly going to be in second place.... which may be some solace to the GPEW & Zac Polanski who can use that standing as a basis for the canvassing & ongoing campaigning ahead of a general election...
#Greens #politics

2026-05-08 09:31:00 UTC

With 43 of 136 English Local Council results declared (already, as of around 10.00), the hoped for Green surge seems not to have materialised, with ReformUK Ltd being the main beneficiary of switched votes (albeit on a likely low turnout, as always for local council elections).
There's lots more results due so things may get better for the Green Party of England & Wales, but I imagine there's going to be some disappointment that Zac Polanski has not pushed them further ahead...
#politics
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/538/245/969/553/313/original/91bec30005ae0ef9.png

2026-05-08 05:31:26 UTC

We'll find out the full scope of Labour's losses later today but early signs are that things will be every bit as bad for Labour (and good for the 'insurgents') as many predicted.
Here is the picture just after 6.00 this morning as reported by the FT
However, these results are currently skewed by the English councils early to report & may not indicate the overall pattern of gains & losses... more results later.
#LocalElections #politics
https://cdn.masto.host/zirkus/media_attachments/files/116/537/304/800/043/547/original/16992013d4ec92b0.png

2026-05-07 12:08:19 UTC

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In a formal sense that is correct. We have what is sometimes referred to as an unwritten constitution, made up of a range of elements that can be regarded as flexibly working together, or alternatively, riddled with holes that allow all sorts of diversions... when I worked for the political pressure group Charter 88 (that worked for a written constitution) the classic comment from the floor in public meetings was: the Soviet written constitution didn't help Russians much

2026-05-07 10:16:41 UTC

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Agreed; its shocking yet (now in the UK) some how all too predictable

2026-05-07 06:06:09 UTC

The Home Office Kafka tribute act continues, stranding the mother of a baby with dual nationality in Austria, as her case does not qualify for emergency documents to allow her to travel home.
You just wonder what sort of people work at the Home Office; are they inculcated once they arrive, or does it attract the vindictive proceduralists who delight in saying 'no' to reasonable attempts to resolve problems cause by byzantine regulation(s)?
#HomeOffice #politics
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/06/scottish-mum-stuck-in-spain-after-baby-falls-foul-of-uk-dual-nationality-rules

2026-05-07 05:35:12 UTC

The Green Party of England & Wales acceleration under Zack Polanski has (unsurprisingly) led to more scrutiny (both legitimate & more attack-based) revealing at least two issues:
Polanski is deft at batting away most criticism(s), using a combination of admission & apology (quickly) he's neutered most criticism of his past;
rows about GPEW Council candidates has revealed the problem of accelerated success; quick & often incomplete party vetting - which is solvable.
#Greens #politics

2026-05-06 21:26:22 UTC

The Trustees Savings Bank started out helping workers manage their wages & survived as a form of community-based banking even after a range independent (regional) networks merged into a single TSB in the 1980s.
But then the rot set in with a share listing in 1985, merger with Lloyds in 1995 and then being spun off as a 'normal' bank to fulfil an EU requirement; leaving it to be picked up by Santander who are now dumping the brand!
RIP TSB... once a workers' bank!
#banking #workers
h/t FT

2026-05-06 13:41:32 UTC

For those of us who have been arguing that the UK's (pretty clear) economic decline *is* reversible, here is @npub1qeq…58yu examining some of the key arguments that are made for recent economic decline.
He concludes that while there may be weak (but still evident) reasons to agree with Andy Burnham's four horsemen of UK decline: deindustrialisation, privatisation, austerity & Brexit, it is the latter where the evidence is most clear cut!
#Brexit #economics #UK #politics
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/uk-decline-and-stylised-empirical-facts.html

2026-05-06 13:32:21 UTC

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Like Channel Four?

2026-05-06 07:53:24 UTC

the key Q. in the economics of private provision of public goods (from health care to energy provision) is:
does the opportunity to profit from services drive innovation & the development of efficiency of delivery, or;
is profit just the outcome of the willingness to cut costs, whatever the impact on services, and user satisfaction.
For supporters of privatisation the former is the analysis of choice; for critics, the evidence points unerringly to the latter.
#privatisation #politics

2026-05-06 05:46:00 UTC

Over half of children's care providers are owned by private equity or sovereign wealth funds;
last year expenditure rose by around 20% partly due to an increase in service use; partly due to price rises;
as utilisation of services is driven by local authorities' legal requirements, the providers have found a stream of income that is not dependent on 'market conditions' but rather is driven by diagnosis & rising recognition of need.
No wonder such investments are popular.
#politics
h/t FT

2026-05-06 05:16:37 UTC

Olivia Palmer argues 'obesity' is a word that gets in the way of public health policy:
'The real barriers [to good health] are a food system engineered for overconsumption, a built environment designed for sedentary living, a commercial ecosystem that profits from both the problem & the proposed solution, and a political economy that makes structural reform expensive and individual blame cheap'.
Rather 'obesity' policy still focusses on blaming individuals!
#health
https://oliviapalmerhealth.substack.com/p/obesity-prevention-isnt-failing-its