drgo
Quantoshi.xyz

Bitcoin OG since 2010, former laptop solo miner - which makes me (amongst) the first obsolete Bitcoin miner(s), blockstream satellite node runner, #2A rights user, radiologist

Public Key

npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd

NIP-05 Address

drgo@nostrplebs.com

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsy7nuzs3nf3lmx4e06n7k5crzwk7pr47c8l204f65azhcjz7hfdnqpzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujucm4wfex2mn59en8j6gpzpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejs7e9s4l

Publishing to

relay.current.fyi

nostr.wine

Author Public Key

npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd

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Last Notes

2026-03-24 03:55:51 UTC

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If I were a betting man, I’d bet on it.

2026-03-24 03:15:08 UTC

If bitcoin price were not to drop lower, this would be the fastest trip from ATH to trough in Bitcoin history.
https://quantoshi.xyz/8.23

2026-03-24 02:54:52 UTC

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Check out the model scanner section on tab 1; put in any two of price, date, and quantile and it will calculate the third for all quantitative models.

2026-03-24 02:37:49 UTC

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The old one ran for like 40 years between service visits though 🤣

2026-03-24 02:36:26 UTC

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Can a kangaroo really be a pet? Those claws are not the friendliest looking claws by any stretch of the imagination.

2026-03-24 02:35:13 UTC

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You should just look at nostr, it’s flattering.

2026-03-20 05:48:20 UTC

I think I have a unique and genuine insight: bitcoin is following a power law with exponent 5 and bubbles superimposed on top making the exponent look closer to 6.
A lot to explain, but summary analysis at https://quantoshi.xyz/8.5 Support power law model + bubble modeling or some periodic component are areas worth investigating. This think I’m getting fairly close with my bubble model; interestingly, there seems to be a relationship between area under the curve of the bubbles and power law exponent…high exponent predicts small bubbles and small exponent predicts larger bubbles…but floor and bubble ceiling converging.

2026-03-19 21:30:46 UTC

Another important factor to consider in power law analysis: when do we start? Setting a proper zero time makes a ~100 fold difference in value when doubling bitcoin lifetime.

2026-03-18 03:22:27 UTC

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Yup. Claude code. I added s2f and log period power law models tonight

2026-03-18 02:21:46 UTC

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Yes. Bitcoin follows a power law over a longer time frame than a straight line or an exponential.

2026-03-18 00:29:29 UTC

Exponential vs. Powerlaw…PlanB’s Stock to Flow model is very useful over a certain range. But because it is exponential, there will come a time when it is not useful.
Power law models can stay useful over a much broader range.
It’s not that Plan B is “wrong,” it’s that the usefulness of his model has an expiration date. And he knows this.
https://image.nostr.build/fec86d310d753ed19effdb71298d66d90b5226cd33a8a42d81fb56db4d4dfa9e.jpg

2026-03-13 14:52:17 UTC

The father of Alexander the Great commissioned a servant to remind him daily: “Phillip, you will die.”
Memento mori.

2026-03-08 06:45:54 UTC

If you had a bunch of Bitcoin price data, and you wanted to extrapolate in to the future for retirement or DCA estimating, and that data fit a power law, the natural thing to do would be to create a Markov model with transition probabilities derived from quantile power law fits to price data and then take several hundred weighted random walks to get a feel for where one ends up after say 10 years…
This sort of thing used to take a while on a computer; I can now do it on your phone…sorta…I precomputed about ½ a gigabyte of simulation results for instant lookup, but I think I will figure out how to integrate @npub155m…dcvg so people can pay for the compute cycles to simulate their exact scenario. Is 50¢ for high quality digital graphs of your retirement too expensive? I think I’m gonna corner the sub-$1 financial planner market 🤣
Coming soon to https://quantoshi.xyz/ !
https://image.nostr.build/8cfe0aa8b81184134dfab82683d480a5cf656d85b5d281d91c7198695871288f.jpg

2026-03-07 23:43:12 UTC

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But only because you don’t understand op codes

2026-03-07 23:13:32 UTC

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lol, and you think your opinion matters when you can’t even understand the topic?

2026-03-07 21:16:47 UTC

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Totally agree. Which is why bip110 is a non-starter. You can’t deny people the right to spend their bitcoin. Imagine if your life savings was trapped because you were a cutting edge bitcoin user…

2026-03-07 21:15:39 UTC

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You misunderstand. Bip110 disables advanced bitcoin key security techniques because they aren’t common and spammers can use similar constructs…but throwing the baby out with the bath water is unwise and denying users the ability to move economically relevant amounts of funds is also unwise

2026-03-07 18:03:16 UTC

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I think it would be safer and less contentious to partition space 90/10 instead of 100/0 with collateral damage

2026-03-07 17:04:51 UTC

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Only morons think they can identify arbitrary data with accuracy. Look at the nonstarter bip110…freezing legit users funds because they can’t figure out a way to decide spam from not spam…

2026-03-07 07:06:22 UTC

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If you sent bitcoin to your own miniscript to do advanced security, bip 110 declares your coins to be spam and not allowed to move for a year.
What about not blocking large UTXOs or something more based in economics?

2026-03-07 07:02:13 UTC

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Denying people the ability to use their bitcoin stored in locking scripts that others have decided are not ok anymore is against that ethos but part of bip110

2026-03-07 05:49:32 UTC

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Spam is completely solved on a technical level. Full blocks, be they spammy or not, won’t kill bitcoin.
That said, there is human utility in reserving block space for legit transactions.
Maybe @npub1lh2…a9nk would consider a BIP targeting partitioning of the block space into standard and nonstandard subblocks…keeping transactions cheap has value to network growth.

2026-03-07 05:30:54 UTC

The whole knots v core debate is the wrong one. We really should be arguing about partitioning block space for standard vs. Non standard transactions

2026-03-06 03:57:20 UTC

Decided to add some Bitcoin history and Bitcoiner quotes to the occasional loading screen on Quantoshi…so you don’t see the 1500 msec of caching behind the scenes…there is an Easter egg that will let you scroll through all quotes…102 good ones.
Now go get stacking!
https://quantoshi.xyz/3
https://image.nostr.build/a289482003d05b1150ad036336ec7a38a3a27328b3a6522dbf53a73782da2f2f.jpg

2026-03-06 03:48:15 UTC

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Yeah. We solved spam a long time ago

2026-03-05 20:29:38 UTC

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It is clear you really care about the issue. But you’re going down the conspiracy angle. Over an issue that doesn’t fundamentally matter to Bitcoin.

2026-03-05 20:26:00 UTC

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Love your stuff! Made my own for DCA/retirement planning. https://quantoshi.xyz/4

2026-03-05 18:51:13 UTC

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The ideal block is the most costly block to verify…and that’s not necessarily a bad thing, it’s a good thing in fact.
That said, I think even for individuals running a node just to verify their own transactions (by somewhat awkward definition called “non-economic” nodes) full blocks won’t be cost prohibitive.
The idea that making your node public to help others download the blockchain is a bit misguided, but I can see why people don’t like downloading crap…it wastes time for no benefit to self.

2026-03-05 18:46:37 UTC

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It’s all a question about sizing your leverage. Too much and you lose big time. Too little and your descendants will begrudge your lack of effort :)

2026-03-05 18:38:34 UTC

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Mathematically I feel like I should. But as I already have a fair amount of debt, I guess in a way I already have…when I didn’t have to pay my medical school loan during COVID, I stacked sats with every penny. That itself will effectively pay off my loans in due time.
But the idea of more debt still scares me. I grew up poor…and that kind of scare is hard to shake, despite thorough knowledge.
That said, there is a number for everyone that they could afford to enable a personal Saylor strategy with low stress.
I feel like I’m going to regret my decision on this someday…

2026-03-05 17:58:06 UTC

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If blocks are totally full of real transactions, then node resource utilization will be higher than if blocks were full of spam.
Thus we should fear success more than spam if we are to fear spam at all.
People wildly overestimate the costs of spam and moderately underestimate the costs of success. But bitcoin isn’t threatened by either.

2026-03-05 16:39:40 UTC

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This is beyond epic

2026-03-05 16:38:08 UTC

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Meh…here’s a casualty of excessive soft forking: I have a lot of custom miniscripts I have been working on that will become invalid for spending, ostensibly on a temporary basis…these scripts do stuff that people want: like use these three keys at any time or these two keys if 32768 blocks have passed or this one key if 65534 blocks have passed…that’s not spam! But some scripts that accomplish this or similar security use notif or similarly “bad” formerly approved opcodes…
Honey badger doesn’t care about spam. People do. People who can’t even account for the rather trivial resources blocks chock full of spam would require…in fact, I’d bitcoin had 0 spam but had blocks full of transactions computing resource requirements would be -higher- than mostly spam blocks.
Saying that spam kills bitcoin is like saying if bitcoin gets used, it dies.

2026-03-05 16:28:06 UTC

With Bitcoin currently trading at the 7th percentile…what do you think results in a bigger stack in 10 years, steady monthly DCA —OR— borrowing 1 years worth of contributions at 13% on an interest only loan and buying bitcoin with the loan…assume loan gets rolled until year 10 when you sell appreciated bitcoin and pay 33% capital gains tax on the bitcoin you sold to pay off the loan…
The result depends a good deal on what percentile bitcoin price trades at in 10 years. For the sake of argument, let’s say Bitcoin’s price falls on a percentile basis to the 1st percentile. The price in 10 years at 1st percentile extrapolates to $905,817. That’s the bearish 1st percentile!
The loan interest takes about ⅛ of away from what you can use for DCA every month but adds a staggering 10% to your final stack, even with punitive capital gains (10-20% is more typical of those below the ~$650k annual income success level to qualify for bonus theft via AMT-alternative minimum “tax”).
This is risky, no doubt. You’ve permanently impaired your monthly DCA allowance until loan repayment and you don’t have the option of skipping this part…and interest rates may rise above 13% or loan may not be allowed to roll over. In theory you could borrow about 8x annual DCA and spend 100% of your DCA allotment but that’s quite risky.
https://quantoshi.xyz/3#q2:H4sIAEKqqWkC_81PQQqEMBD7S845TKcg-ghfUMqibmELpYXdruDvHX2FCSQ5JIeEUP-l8HEiRidCzK32TznAoKIDVfwQibVvoHKko1OrOW9O5NrTN_36q9VrMhEl7wkcxUBvpec9xXtbEO8cT5SfEa2OAQAA
https://image.nostr.build/66a9c5b2566d9dcb0a0747ed97c65f13ee5a70483294e4449fab07eabccc2611.jpg

2026-03-05 06:45:48 UTC

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1) I should have seen the pattern by 2016.
2) I should be borrowing money to buy bitcoin today, despite being in top tax bracket (capital gains taxes, plural, add up to about 33% if you look at high bracket alternative minimum tax 28%, federal net investment income tax 3.8%, and my state investment income bonus theft/tax).
3) taxes force you to roll over loans rather than pay them back…if you did serial loans paying back principle from gains every year, you’re better off DCA’ing.
4) delaying retirement by 1 year makes a massive difference at the end.
5) extrapolation is not prediction https://quantoshi.xyz/7.3
6) One Bitcoin is a lot of bitcoin, should extrapolation prove true.
7) Bitcoiners won’t be the first to want to live forever, but they will have the most reason, financially speaking, to live to be very old…

2026-03-05 06:38:45 UTC

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Good point. Really good point.
That said, I like my martyrs here. If they don’t receive messages, they’re not here even if they post here. So add x-receive notifications too!

2026-03-05 06:36:16 UTC

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I’m trying not to get people to fomo in to Bitcoin. I want people to see the bigger picture. You can lose big time in the short term and still do considerably better than the stock market by years 5-10.

2026-03-05 06:34:29 UTC

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So it’s kind of like you went back in time to January to sell at January’s 10th percentile. This effect will grow worse 12/31/2026 and disappear 1/1/2027…only to grow worse again by 12/31

2026-03-05 06:31:41 UTC

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It is aligned to January to give you the least rosy/most risky view

2026-03-05 06:28:01 UTC

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Nope. All I do is look at price history and extend it by percentile in to the future…but it would be really interesting to correlate the current percentile of bitcoin price with on chain metrics.

2026-03-05 05:41:11 UTC

I implemented tax consequences for borrowing costs associated with Stack-cellerator on Quantoshi
https://quantoshi.xyz/3
https://image.nostr.build/dc6d5ced8d4807040599588cdc96ca0f9a084a42e67e30883d47efd2df6b54f8.jpg

2026-03-05 04:49:04 UTC

Bitcoin has had an amazing price history. And the biggest problem with its price history is that the roughly 8x variation between peaks and valleys makes it so hard for people to see the underlying trend.
I built Quantoshi to help everyone see a little further, plan a little better, and think a little more clearly about Bitcoin.
We didn’t have stuff like this back when I was new to Bitcoin.
Learn to extrapolate. Quantoshi can help.
https://quantoshi.xyz/3
https://image.nostr.build/debf963e6cc74a684ce1b60791ffb565dcb0f833147284a135c8cb941325e3bb.jpg

2026-03-05 04:41:13 UTC

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I’m the American radiologist you met upstairs in Prague 2 years ago…I think you might find my new web app interesting…it’s all about extrapolation of the Bitcoin price trend. Oh how I wish I had Quantoshi in 2010!
https://quantoshi.xyz/4
https://image.nostr.build/976ba305b0384ec0237f3bb20ff934f1047a06eb054a778cc34b48171e7a8bc9.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/debf963e6cc74a684ce1b60791ffb565dcb0f833147284a135c8cb941325e3bb.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/c66e6a2cc7c6f1ffc53222d69b916de3240486d90af2a0b35a16dfd19e3eb264.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/05c3de33161d4f217c6e056387411aa22432f61bfa126aed3a3152c824d1ba21.jpg

2026-03-05 04:20:37 UTC

Bitcoin is unfairly cheap right now. Percentile 8.2, in fact.
What is the extrapolated risk of buying Bitcoin today?
Do a simulated buy on Quantoshi and look at max loss and compound annual growth rate following pessimistic or optimistic price trajectories: https://quantoshi.xyz/2
https://image.nostr.build/292f584651e493f40aac48e8e39b29482f33f35c49cacebcf5e781f2f4bdc8fd.jpg

2026-03-05 04:01:04 UTC

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I’m that crazy gun loving American guy from Arizona you met in Palm cove and I did a thing, a retirement thing…https://quantoshi.xyz/4
Scroll down

2026-03-05 03:56:55 UTC

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Yeah, it turns out burning shit hurts.

2026-03-05 03:55:22 UTC

I think Saylor is really on to something with STRC…you can do a personal version of what Saylor is doing and accelerate your stack…Quantoshi can let you extrapolate the effects of Entering Saylor Mode so you can calculate your Stack-celeration factor…
Scroll down on
https://quantoshi.xyz/3
https://image.nostr.build/debf963e6cc74a684ce1b60791ffb565dcb0f833147284a135c8cb941325e3bb.jpg

2026-03-05 03:24:33 UTC

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Here’s a happy thought. Extrapolate your stack with my new web app Quantoshi…it’s really not bad work from a radiologist!
https://Quantoshi.xyz/4
Or via tor
http://u5dprelc4ti7xoczb5sbtye6qidlji2l6psmkx35anvxgjyqrkmu32ad.onion/4

2026-03-05 03:15:08 UTC

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Yeah…1 bitcoin being used as retirement savings with retirement beginning in 2031…spending $5,000 per month with 4% inflation, a great deal depends on which percentile bitcoin price follows…if you get incredibly unlucky and every sell you get the extrapolated 0.1 percentile, you run out of money by 2041. If you’re less unlucky, and you sell at the 5th, 10th, and 15th percentiles, you run out of money in 2048, 2054, and 2070…but if you get lucky and sell at 20th percentiles, you will have over $100k in 2070…
https://quantoshi.xyz/4#q2:H4sIAPjzqGkC_4uOzivNydEZVoShjoGOqYGBgY6Sb35eSUZOpZJOtJGBsaGOkYG5aayOiY5SUkmyko65jpGJCV0cpFSUWpJZlKoUC-bGAgA_hUBVdAEAAA==
Now you can model the effect of delaying stack drawdown 1, 2, 4, or 8 years, for example…delaying at least 1 year past 2031 means you spend MUCH less of your extrapolated stack…this extrapolated retiree dies rich.
https://quantoshi.xyz/5#q2:H4sIAG30qGkC_4uOzivNydEZuYShjoGOkYExiDLUMdIx0bHQUfLNzyvJyKlUAvIMzXSUEpV0TA0MQMrMQYSZgY5SaXGKko45SLOegSnEIKXi0oLUouSMxKL0VKVYsFgsAHK-dCNeAQAA
For how long will these extrapolations hold? Nobody knows.
https://quantoshi.xyz/7.3
https://image.nostr.build/df27c462e27caabbbc71d3caf8fbed7dbaf00c1204cf6dcd151048582dfb1d4f.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/129954eda1c309e3725bcff5473f2775e1d9fa2eb68f932b25b60581a5474c27.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/fafe2c7ec00d5298bf544f567c34d44f8f78d2c80a645964220d94453f626e4d.jpg

2026-03-05 02:25:25 UTC

Want to Accelerate your stack? While I know this sounds crazy, and yes, this is risky, but have you considered extrapolating the effects of borrowing money to buy Bitcoin?
Well, Quantoshi now lets you compare the effects of DCA vs. Borrow an amount equal to 1 year of DCA on an interest only loan and rolling over loan every year. The result? Saylor and @npub1cn4…3vle are right…you need to think about this.
Scroll down to Enter Saylor Mode and see what your extrapolated Stack-celleration factor would be!
https://quantoshi.xyz/3
And if you suddenly find yourself needing to buy more sats, check out @npub19mf…kfu2 (the direct to wallet guys), @npub1xke…d0en (I personally use River and they offer something like interest on something like dollar deposits), and @npub1ex7…vyt9 (see their bitcoin backed lending and line of credit)…
https://image.nostr.build/965b8d008c5ca1fdfc189c9866b0664d7311495135dbcd3f98144aa23a2bdf96.jpg

2026-03-05 00:18:44 UTC

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lol…input sanitizer somehow decided to only allow regular values like 1,11,21,31…91,101,111…so any input that’s normal, like 100 or 1000 was sanitized

2026-03-04 23:45:32 UTC

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My input fields somehow went from working to ignored by solving a plot display bug…arg

2026-03-04 22:14:56 UTC

One of the problems with AI coding is that AI can make mistakes a human never would and it’s hard to notice.

2026-03-04 21:09:01 UTC

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and past performances is no guarantee of future returns … But not too bad for a radiologist, eh?
I have a Stack-cellerator option in the works but I realize I broke the share links and i need to fix the first. It’ll be a few hours.
I kid you not, all I had on Sunday were some Jupyter python notebooks for personal use. It took about a day to get Quantoshi functional and another day or two to reach right now…

2026-03-04 19:45:30 UTC

True story: I made Quantoshi.xyz on Monday. And now it’s Wednesday and Bitcoin is up like 10% since I shipped my code.
Coincidence? Or are people seeing the future more clearly? https://quantoshi.xyz/
https://image.nostr.build/25b95006ce604a0f1f81843672ea2c6a5ea76989205b7a0d51a237374b0cd135.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/f06e4df872c52880ca76e2a3a15e73ecd492b68d14ca2adc51829b06ec9ae733.jpg

2026-03-04 19:30:56 UTC

I added quantile bands to the HODL Supercharger default graph at https://quantoshi.xyz/5
https://image.nostr.build/a6525b6e8284110bc35b157c0d5af5196df29f4202f9fd3275b7391d2b8e29cb.jpg

2026-03-04 18:55:01 UTC

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https://quantoshi.xyz/5

2026-03-04 18:54:04 UTC

Do you have 1 Bitcoin? Thinking of retiring? What might be the effects of delaying your retirement a year? Or two? Or four or eight years? Check out the new HODL supercharger on Quantoshi…there are 80,000,000 reasons for you to check it out, if you look at the legend for the graph…you can thank me later!
https://image.nostr.build/066585748b1f1ef2b0c99e4244263003bf584ce9d36e6d6d1db8429be63788ce.jpg

2026-03-04 18:31:06 UTC

Ok, it took closer to 15 minutes.
#nevent1q…64zk

2026-03-04 18:17:17 UTC

Building a new feature for Quantoshi: the HODL Supercharger…explore the effects of delaying when you start drawing down your stack…coming soon…I think the link will in an hour or so be https://quantoshi.xyz/5

2026-03-04 15:14:04 UTC

Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin? What if price crashes to the 0.001st percentile, how much would I lose?
Check out the Quantoshi compound annual growth rate heatmap: https://quantoshi.xyz/2

2026-03-04 12:34:01 UTC

I think @npub1a2c…w83a would instantly grok the idea behind Quantoshi, scroll down to edit assumptions: https://quantoshi.xyz/4

2026-03-04 12:18:35 UTC

Want Bitcoin retirement insight, but you run @npub17u5…t4tp level opsec?
Quantoshi has you covered.
http://u5dprelc4ti7xoczb5sbtye6qidlji2l6psmkx35anvxgjyqrkmu32ad.onion/4

2026-03-04 03:26:47 UTC

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The idea is fascinating. Their GitHub repo seems legit…I bet this is pricey AF.

2026-03-04 03:10:52 UTC

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Look into the future..you have 17 years of bitcoin price data…what @npub1cn4…3vle is offering is a no brainer if you can see down the road far enough.
https://quantoshi.xyz/#q2:H4sIALKip2kC_5VQwW6DMAz9F_dqIScpsB0npN76BVFUJYDgkJEKgqb-_WwoPfQyTU6sZ_nF78XWWiqodAgxDfDMVpPSqMmQQ0tYc4Zl9F3PhGVMP7fOZ3_gnDr_gJ3CZZu-70drWe_cMBxUVEhonRxNmouiFBlGms5KZAoiheKFkwAlQMsVYBy_JyYjnLSqqq-GRU6XWmJDl4-GSFDTKCXIaITWDzPgJ3trU0xz8DO43ceWmIdwTVMe4wNedkzF2wi5heNLsR_6qePZ3erjbfvr326VCJT0rmAUK9S87_NLw09Tyj73-_Z5_v-EIKwhxJ7J0xqj-wUMRDbI0QEAAA==

2026-03-04 03:08:41 UTC

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I am here

2026-03-04 03:07:58 UTC

@npub1hxw…40pf @npub1rex…6u3c I did a thing, a retirement thing, with bitcoin: see retirement tab on my new WebApp Quantoshi: https://quantoshi.xyz/#q2:H4sIAAiKp2kC_4VQ0WrDMAz8F_VVFNlu0u1xBPq2LzChuIlpCl5cEoeRv9-pXQvbSxE-TrK4k-S9l62IYWAFUGKUWH1KXMuULmMME4HkM7G3YixbcdKyF94DaR5CH9EwD_n72IcSHrzkPqx0b0Ha5a_r42tervhwCNnWQE9rnLW1hbitUa3UC8zKzqjXy0kFYYVpY01dfzRw2hz2Gjd2eGtElDWNMcqcZerCGZu9w73LKU8n7Kk6_hfQx_SZxzKklZ7juBpXOZUOFeqXkI63FV_PZ1Sykv-aTs-5r1rePVXDOOYSSrwfHfr8xwjnoCmWyxSRj0tK7Q9ektF_ygEAAA==
This is a lot of math and not a lot of hype…I’m not trying to tickle any fomo feelings but rather give people a 5th percentile extrapolated view of the future and help them realize even then the returns are amazing…people need to start planning today!
https://image.nostr.build/909e9944652da204e7d77fc281cbebf12bb5d37b5ecb8134874ec311bd6dafc2.jpg

2026-03-04 03:02:36 UTC

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I’d also say a year today is like many years in 30 years, so get ‘em while they’re cheap and save every sat you can!

2026-03-04 03:00:02 UTC

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Scroll down

2026-03-04 02:59:31 UTC

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Screenshots! If you can…this website didn’t exist this morning and I’ve only ever seen it on Linux and iPhone. At the very least, I can put up a punt-page for it systems that I know work poorly…assuming I can not fix it.

2026-03-04 02:57:43 UTC

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While true, the model as configured isn’t using the bubble model for extrapolation…I’m using the 10th percentile regression line extrapolated forward in time.
That said, I did model the trend in the change in shape of the bubbles and you can use Quantoshi to see the next three extrapolated bubbles…this parametric space extrapolation is a new model nobody’s thought much about before, but it converges to 30th percentile-ish over time, so it’s boring and not fomo inducing…
That said, people should be feeling fomo very badly if they can just see a little further into the future. Even doing worse than it has 99% of the time is still outrageously good returns.
Anyhow, love the Well…y’all are doing it right from this docs perspective!

2026-03-04 02:52:40 UTC

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Amen to that!

2026-03-04 02:52:23 UTC

I really think people need to look long and hard at @npub1cn4…3vle BLOC bitcoin line of credit…Jack is asking you to look around the corner in to the future.
Quantoshi.xyz can help you extrapolate your view…brought to you by the world’s first bitcoin doctor…probably: https://quantoshi.xyz

2026-03-04 02:49:36 UTC

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This link is better…arg…https://quantoshi.xyz/#q2:H4sIAJudp2kC_5WRz46DIBDG32V6JWZA0e5xY9Jbn4AQA0r0wEqjmI1vvzNt7aGnbiYMH8yX-fHHGINFbQXENMIzG4VSCYUarTAomkLTDOvkhkCWdUq_3eCyO3ROg9uPRYorPNy06NPP7Sis240KJQXxhCqq-ky2PdztlmiqpopmOCmFlWR4gShpGzUlFpKF4sGitAIpFAo4KVnX3y3RTpeG464u5xaRVdtKyapUAno3LiC-iN6nmBbvFuA-5pnIJ-Ca5jzFHV7HKfmNfO7huFsMY5gH6j1sLnY7fHRayQCN74RSEqGhV65eDDfPKbscHn_S7f8Egd-8j4HM8xaj_QM4gcw-5gEAAA==

2026-03-04 02:47:06 UTC

You already know how many dollars is your stack worth now, but what about next year? What about next decade?
Extrapolate your stack here:
https://quantoshi.xyz/#q2:H4sIALmbp2kC_5WRwW7DIAyG38W9WpGBJtmOU6Te9gQIRSRByYGFKiGa8va126aHnjZZmB_8iw-MtZaKyiHENMIzW01Ko6aSHFrCuih5hnXyQ2DLOqXfdvDZHzqnwe_HIsUVHm5e9OnnehTW7coFw8E8nLcY2bWHu9sxTFdcKIXNStNZCbsgUrxNJScRSoSWIcI4JA5NCCetquqrYdjpUkvc1eWjIRLVNEqJMhqh9-MC-Mn0PsW0dH4BOcc-E_sQvtOcp7jD6zpGWtTlHo6nxTCGeeCzh83Hdoc_3VYJoKR3glFMqLnJ5xfDz3PKPofHl7T7P0HQbV0XA5ul0e4GT7_zdOUBAAA=
Please note, any data you type in is saved in your browsers local storage. Source code available for free on github (like free free)…review or clone, it’s yours.
Also, you can connect over tor too: http://u5dprelc4ti7xoczb5sbtye6qidlji2l6psmkx35anvxgjyqrkmu32ad.onion/

2026-03-04 01:40:14 UTC

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Exactly. Not body can predict the future. So if you are forced to guess, be conservative about it.

2026-03-04 01:27:38 UTC

What’s the difference between retiring on Bitcoin in 2031 and 2032? It could mean the difference between running out of money in 2054 and having plenty of money past 2072! See attached screenshots.
Run your own retirement extrapolation on Quantoshi:
https://quantoshi.xyz/#q2:H4sIAAiKp2kC_4VQ0WrDMAz8F_VVFNlu0u1xBPq2LzChuIlpCl5cEoeRv9-pXQvbSxE-TrK4k-S9l62IYWAFUGKUWH1KXMuULmMME4HkM7G3YixbcdKyF94DaR5CH9EwD_n72IcSHrzkPqx0b0Ha5a_r42tervhwCNnWQE9rnLW1hbitUa3UC8zKzqjXy0kFYYVpY01dfzRw2hz2Gjd2eGtElDWNMcqcZerCGZu9w73LKU8n7Kk6_hfQx_SZxzKklZ7juBpXOZUOFeqXkI63FV_PZ1Sykv-aTs-5r1rePVXDOOYSSrwfHfr8xwjnoCmWyxSRj0tK7Q9ektF_ygEAAA==
https://image.nostr.build/f55beb7d3dd06fdcfeaa4c04f5698322be5ee502175b35d46fd9014a99da4199.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/f2e8d6c6f8fd57857c40f65fbda1bad7cbfdaac41533c96fcf1b0aec5484523b.jpg

2026-03-04 01:25:51 UTC

What’s the difference between retiring on Bitcoin in 2031 and 2032? It could mean the difference between running out of money in 2054 and having plenty of money past 2072!
Run your own retirement extrapolation on Quantoshi:
https://quantoshi.xyz/#q2:H4sIAAiKp2kC_4VQ0WrDMAz8F_VVFNlu0u1xBPq2LzChuIlpCl5cEoeRv9-pXQvbSxE-TrK4k-S9l62IYWAFUGKUWH1KXMuULmMME4HkM7G3YixbcdKyF94DaR5CH9EwD_n72IcSHrzkPqx0b0Ha5a_r42tervhwCNnWQE9rnLW1hbitUa3UC8zKzqjXy0kFYYVpY01dfzRw2hz2Gjd2eGtElDWNMcqcZerCGZu9w73LKU8n7Kk6_hfQx_SZxzKklZ7juBpXOZUOFeqXkI63FV_PZ1Sykv-aTs-5r1rePVXDOOYSSrwfHfr8xwjnoCmWyxSRj0tK7Q9ektF_ygEAAA==

2026-03-04 00:33:55 UTC

I love how polite Claude Code is: I wrote something like “remains parallel far beyond your lifespan” and Claude changed my words to “beyond any reasonablly investable time frame.”

2026-03-04 00:29:55 UTC

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Share a screen shot, if possible

2026-03-04 00:27:18 UTC

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Do you have android? This is what it looks like on iPhone…
https://image.nostr.build/f0d30835796f215dad0757a3692df0ac3d37662704dda5dac682ce0cea3d54b5.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/909e9944652da204e7d77fc281cbebf12bb5d37b5ecb8134874ec311bd6dafc2.jpg

2026-03-04 00:05:39 UTC

Are you a whole coiner, or will you by by 2031? Here is what it looks like to retire in 2031 on $5,000 a month with 4% inflation on the hopes that bitcoin follows the 15th percentile extrapolation…You’ll be out of money by 2070…you can easily see what a large impact waiting one more year until retirement using the Quantoshi link below…
Remember, this is just math, not a prediction or guarantee!
https://quantoshi.xyz/#q2:H4sIADJ2p2kC_41RwWrDMAz9F_Uqgmw3yXYcgd76BcYUNzHJwLNL4jDy95PapoeehmzxZEm8J9laSxXVDiHmEZ7ealIaNRlyaAlb9rBMfghcsEz59zL44ndc8uC3PYhhDGmARwPHff657bllvXHCsFHVIKF1cjRpDqpaSBlpOiohrYgUijJ2ApQALVeAcdxPXIxw0KppvjomOZxasTs6fXREgrpOKUFGI_R-nAE_WVufY56vfgb30HF3XIdwzqlMcYOXHNPwbq6lh32k54gIw-rjZYN_qVVCUNM7g1HM0PL2jy8On1IuvoQ3AiVfNIfyPQd-SGuM7g-ycPCmuwEAAA==

2026-03-03 22:14:06 UTC

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And now you can see why stacking now really matters compared to waiting another year!

2026-03-03 22:00:21 UTC

Think you can retire in Bitcoin? Customize and share / save a retirement scenario with Quantoshi: https://quantoshi.xyz/#q1:H4sIALhZp2kC_5VU246bMBD9F_c1rGyzIW3eqkj71i-IVtEABqwam7VNNrTqv9fGYHJhHyIEMufMGc-ZMfxFeZ8nH2Z_BtEztD_iF4zJxj237uEXxC-ov_0ifd-MiospQLBZhQSXDDQK3HDHqXoiLhpkHYkjxYRuKE7xlHO4pfFmNxFW1bVgS43INFAyl9Q06vNUgoV5bVUJA5pk7s4FW1O7yEK13awyfTdrZFL1ttexijTAnTX8zyMIomtgRvFLFnBjofh9F-v3uSWOaGBm3rY3LBHKLkU6vGkTJq0eXF9mmGKaXREfy9bbAF-4Te6b7CQUv5L3JeK5cTtVq8qYEY9ITu7e6VLjCBTOTzwC3yjJsp8HNDEtL8nCve38dcXRK-7t-wHjmWv4whwOhMxMraGM_aYjdK5aG4MLqPWUgwmRVNH-jxF8OCCFEkrn7jwH9zdjC-7W5lUW8BDqsa9ioVW9jEU6MwGuNItzRb-UtI0YUKAGvT7cNJtSltx0UZvbYtI9GCx7EKfxO_H0c8dBM3trkwRszabHP-Notth79NgXHj214jElzuNuO-XjshIz-RqgFdsefrANUioL1v853E_pNLY1dsIrnutEC1wmFnKzh8LyMzu5tSvAJeKaoX__Afzrz91bBQAA
#quantoshi
https://image.nostr.build/909e9944652da204e7d77fc281cbebf12bb5d37b5ecb8134874ec311bd6dafc2.jpg

2026-03-03 21:57:46 UTC

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Predicting is what _you_ do with data. This software just does math, it extrapolates.

2026-03-03 21:56:59 UTC

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You would be exactly correct. One that uses linreg function

2026-03-03 21:55:03 UTC

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This is wisdom.

2026-03-03 21:39:10 UTC

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No. You set up the server, I just had Claude code do it for me. But it’s super easy with Claude. I have a Claude.md file in the github repo so anyone can point Claude to it and say something like: help me run quantoshi n my local computer, or on an aws cloud host, or as a tor hidden service on either, etc

2026-03-03 21:36:51 UTC

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Already there. You can enter starting BTC on the DCA or enter one or more date/price in the Stack Tracker tab…you can even just plot the bitcoin price x your stack on the main tab:
https://quantoshi.xyz/#q1:H4sIAGVUp2kC_5VU247bIBD9F_oarwBvnDZvVaR96xdEq2hs44uKwQs4G7fqvxeMwbl4H6LIFjlnzjBnBvMX5UOefOj9GfjA0P6IXzAmG_ve2pdbELeg7nGL9H0zKS66AM6CCvFWMFDIc-MdJ-uZuCgQdSSOFBO6oTjFc87xlsab3UwYWdecLTUi3UDJbFLdyM9TCQbC2sgSRjTL7JNztqa2kYXs-qDSQx80IqkGM6hYRerh3uj2zyMIvG8goPgl87g2UPy-i3X73BJHNDIdth00S7g0S5EWb7qECaNG25cAU0yzK-Jj2Xrr4UtrkvsmWwnFr-R9iXhu3FbVyTJmxBOSk7v_dKlxAgrrJx6Bb5Rk2c8DmpmuLcnCve3c74qjV9zb9wPGgWvahTkcCAlMraCM_aYTdK46E4MLqNWcg3GeVNH-jwl8OCCF5FLl9jx79zdj8-7W5lUW8BDqsK9ioZODiEVaMx6uFItzRb-kMA0fkadGtT7cNJtTlq3uozY3xax7MFgOwE_Td-Lo546DYubWJvHYmk2Hf8bRbLHz6LAvPDpqxWNKrMfdds7XiooH8tVDK7Yd_GAbhJAGjLs57KV0mtoaO-EUz3Wig1YkBnK9h8K0Z3aya1fAdO2gf_8BIrYz1FsFAAA=

2026-03-03 21:29:45 UTC

About 6 minutes ago, I decided should have a way to share links to customized charting scenarios. And thanks to Claude, now it does! This will require some testing…
https://quantoshi.xyz/#q1:H4sIAFBSp2kC_5WU346jIBTG34W9rRPAqd3t3abJ3O0TNJPmqPgni-AAdupu9t0XFNFW56JpNPT38SHfOehflHZp9KGPV-AdQ8czfsGY7Ox9b29uQNyAussN4vfd4LjpDDibXIjXgoFCo9Y_aLL0wk2BKINwppjQHcUx9mv29zLeHbxgZFlyNu8R6QpyZhfVlfy85GBgGhuZQ4-8zV4pZ1tuOzOTTTu5dNdOHhEVnelU2EU84tbo-s8aAm8rmCh-SUauDWS_A_XMPudeOPsndppFXBq95FUTMWFUb0syYYppshA-5qfuR3yrTfRYX2uh-JW8zzOe67R1NTJniyyWpOThP533OIDM5gnd_0ZJkvw8Ia80dU5m7e3gfguNLrS37yeMJ62qZ-V0ImRSSgV5aAsd0LVoTJicQan8GozzqAjxfwxwdTYyyaVK7VEe0z-20qKtfuUZrKY69tVcaGQnwiZtmBEXioW-ol9SmIr3aJR6td3cOPFL5rVugzc1mfetAuYd8Mvwijj5ueOgmLmPSUa2FdPxz9CaPXYZHfsio5M2MsbEZjzs_Xq1KPgkvo5oI7bDq9gghDRg3EfDfo8uQ1lDJZzjuUo0UIvIQKqPkJn6yi52bDdgS4r-_QdUuR1yUwUAAA==

2026-03-03 21:23:50 UTC

How quickly will DCA grow your Bitcoin stack?
Try the BTC Acummulator tab: https://quantoshi.xyz
#Quantoshi
https://image.nostr.build/8b639eee5f736903e9c9dcc8b36e2d88ebd918f71c7d6120661825e3678d0c34.jpg

2026-03-03 21:20:57 UTC

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Can we start with Doom?

2026-03-03 21:19:49 UTC

@npub1sk7…jraw @npub1guh…6hjy @npub1qny…95gx
I did a thing to help retirement planning/DCA analysis: https://quantoshi.xyz
It’s free as in beer and free as in speech:
https://github.com/bg002h/quantoshi
https://image.nostr.build/909e9944652da204e7d77fc281cbebf12bb5d37b5ecb8134874ec311bd6dafc2.jpg

2026-03-03 21:17:41 UTC

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https://quantoshi.xyz
You can simulate retirement on Bitcoin at whatever inflation rate you want with my literally brand new web app Quantoshi!
It’s free as in beer and free as in speech: https://github.com/bg002h/quantoshi
https://image.nostr.build/909e9944652da204e7d77fc281cbebf12bb5d37b5ecb8134874ec311bd6dafc2.jpg

2026-03-03 21:08:39 UTC

@npub1n7g…kjq2 check this out: https://quantoshi.xyz

2026-03-03 21:07:46 UTC

Claude code is amazing. On Sunday, all I had were some static Jupyter notebooks to run plots for analyzing potential bitcoin purchase scenarios…by Tuesday morning I have an interactive desktop app for Linux, and a web app available on clearnet and tor!
Check out Quantoshi:
https://quantoshi.xyz
http://u5dprelc4ti7xoczb5sbtye6qidlji2l6psmkx35anvxgjyqrkmu32ad.onion
https://github.com/bg002h/quantoshi
https://image.nostr.build/ec500a1aa2c1744025081a5d028cb73306d4c690eb7d5341c3c003ee866e65cd.jpg

2026-03-03 20:33:54 UTC

Introducing Quantoshi!
I made some tools to help people wrap their heads around Bitcoin as an investment. It’s an extrapolation tool with quantile regression and it lets you see extrapolated future price but also do things like simulate Bitcoin purchases and see how risky price is in extrapolations.
Suppose you buy Bitcoin at the 50th percentile for January 2026 ($113.3K) and price falls to 5th percentile and stays there for 7 years…what will my compound annual growth rate be each year?
Want to see how big DCA will grow your stack at various future values of Bitcoin price growth? Want to simulate retiring on Bitcoin in 2039 at 4% inflation and $5,000 a month drawdown?
Want to track your Bitcoin DCA’s and smash buys?
Find Quantoshi here: https://quantoshi.xyz
It’s not perfect…remember, I’m a practicing radiologist with a day job and I only decided two nights ago to convert my charting code to a web app.
It’s free/BSD-2 with source here: https://github.com/bg002h/quantoshi
But please remember, this is just math, not a prediction.
I did this for myself primarily, and I’ll update it now and then, but remember, you too can just do stuff. I’m proof, I did a thing!
@npub1xts…kk5s @npub1az9…m8y8 @npub19wa…8p6k @npub1r8m…wp63 @npub15n9…qru4 @npub1rtl…jtfs @npub167n…zu3r @npub1nvf…e7zd @npub1el3…l27r @npub1jmy…6xcq @npub1uyz…8632 @npub185h…wrdp @npub1gu4…907g @npub13tm…nkcs
https://image.nostr.build/bd6d1cd60c2780cb5dcdaefc9f8641d1d88b1000c1ca595f01fcfc5c8a3c926b.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/c0fdd752ba54d1898ee961d1ce291a216781b14e493ebca14748312307b082b1.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/0cdc7923521e10ad4ae2a420340276359972c1ec29b18ca365ed769801a8f196.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/42e272bc5d626a27ae62ee03bced5835d434053bba683697709e999dfc40435f.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/b8ac46ff474a587ddd252c6a1d9c0a6c9d19a3c5ced656058b11dbce07e0f2c8.jpg

2026-03-03 06:19:42 UTC

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It’s a web app on an onion service now: vbu3i2fd7yrgnchykfjdbahgsmg5e4razr4icpbgowzldq5pzma54hid.onion

2026-03-03 06:18:14 UTC

Just finished my first computer application since mybitcoins in 2011…what was a linux app 1.5 hrs ago is now a web app on an onion service. This may or may not work for you:
Point your tor browser at:
vbu3i2fd7yrgnchykfjdbahgsmg5e4razr4icpbgowzldq5pzma54hid.onion
Bitcoin retirement and DCA extrapolator with a side of CAGR heat map analysis and future Bitcoin bubble prediction via my own parametric space extrapolation model…

2026-03-02 21:03:35 UTC

So today I planned on trying out @jcorgan's FIPS peering system (https://github.com/jmcorgan/fips/blob/master/docs/design/fips-intro.md) but I ended up writing a Linux application that started out as a power law bitcoin price extrapolator which then became a bitcoin bubble price guesstimator, and then became a DCA analyzer and a retirement extrapolator…
Right now it only runs on Linux as an AppImage…and as I don’t have any friends using Linux, it’ll probably stay on my hard drive until I get more bugs worked out…but it’s kinda beta quality already…if anyone knows what an appimage is and already runs Linux and wants to try it, I’ll figure out how to transfer the binary…it’s 140MB, so kinda too big for email.
https://image.nostr.build/c99961f304bd4d89a29bff82f2fc812deaaae7d282446cf7857eab2ab59618be.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/8eb9259a792bc942778eaf53d2628b1def8bf94f0aa3f8d117f1f6427f5739c3.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/4e3fb268b18a0c33bfd3f261375307a9fdfae233e797500a3d51f27e2d07aabb.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/0022a97e09ded73bf9d7a37f30c439b64af767685bb8e2920f81024e122ec5d3.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/5c09db6883d013274ef82b2b51dd765713fa18d38873b5ba21c3196fe854a7f9.jpg