BAO MARKETS HQ

The main account of BAO MARKETS. Prediction markets on NOSTR.

For markets feed follow:
npub1w0v7r8hs0cxsnr7ql30mwhdslp2gyn5tfepeqkkvucudmajxn9sqgz5svp

Public Key

npub1vphstvrfd7x4vxj5wr4dyrt5kz8v6cjr56g84nwy2zjgf8yup0rqdgrtmm

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsxqmc9kp5klr2krf28p6kjp46tprkdvfp6dyr6ehz9pfyynjwqh3spz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dslge4cg

Publishing to

relay.damus.io

nos.lol

Author Public Key

npub1vphstvrfd7x4vxj5wr4dyrt5kz8v6cjr56g84nwy2zjgf8yup0rqdgrtmm

Show more details

Last Notes

2026-07-29 21:28:26 UTC

- reply

keep up!

2026-06-08 22:54:07 UTC

This is a graph of bao markets via graphify.net
https://blossom.primal.net/1cf142bb12bbe409e11715eb3b255e7e1d8860a549dcf960f87369c2f9083341.png
#graphify
https://blossom.primal.net/28f2499a258e383b2921e644647e008b6ab44eed653b2461490a975db1f4ca80.png

2026-06-07 15:41:16 UTC

Cube Designer: @nprofile…gm82
https://blossom.primal.net/53c189d642505133a1a8ceab2e40092d8749cc22b44de85a1c5dd2611d582e0e.mp4
https://bao.markets/cube/poll/7326e2b8e650757e1079350dee24fb2bc1416f096c3709c460e1fd087b2554a7?mode=cube
#zapcube #nostrpolls

2026-06-07 15:12:10 UTC

- reply

oh magic

2026-06-07 15:04:27 UTC

- reply

check out bao.markets bitcoin and nostr native, privacy first and non-custodial: Cashu, Ark, Silent Payments, Liquid, Spark, Lightning, Fedimint
https://blossom.primal.net/564ad05cd770cac978c9ae89a1ee8e5fec3354ae2cb0b6775eb7c4c9e78c6d9a.png
https://blossom.primal.net/95049c1f0cf21ce07e0e5b2bca59c82b98a1e402e327d11d3d676026339b8cf5.png

2026-06-06 21:51:48 UTC

Hello NosTriCheS, we turned Nostr polls into cubes, stuffed them with images and livestreams, and kept the zap button right where you left it. This is how we play.
https://blossom.primal.net/e6360784b5974b547509fbc5c16ecfa234ecdadb3025aad2eff2d24376a78d79.png
https://bao.markets/demo/nostrpolls?view=morph
#zapmycube #nostrpolls

2026-06-06 20:57:28 UTC

- reply

see you soon! :

2026-06-05 15:21:44 UTC

- reply

🤣

2026-06-05 15:20:58 UTC

- reply

In a few days we are going to release on github a small tool for onboarding noobs to NOSTR without jargon, named "Freedom ID".
It's a multi level approach to the web-of-trust problem.
Hopefully someone will be ready to discuss as it seems to be a hot topic around the world 🌍 among nostriches building freedom tech in the open.

2026-06-05 15:16:09 UTC

- reply

Nice, would you like to hear about the NOSTR based prediction market with 26 NIPs?

2026-06-05 14:40:11 UTC

- reply

Nice

2026-06-04 07:48:04 UTC

- reply

In this case they did a good job with branding and we need purple ostriches in public spaces, wyt?

2026-06-02 09:25:42 UTC

- reply

In this case it may be repainted purple ;)

2026-06-02 09:24:54 UTC

- reply

There is a lot to digest when you enter BAO. Take it slowly ;)

2026-06-02 08:23:38 UTC

Bitcoiners everywhere
#oslo #OFF2026
https://image.nostr.build/302ac2e102c1fae4164e9db016486e48cd887f8addee0b81ec37200a159e0dfb.jpg

2026-06-01 21:59:56 UTC

- reply

The mathematical construction is flawed: it conflates identity key with payment key, destroys the security boundary between scanning and spending, and trains users to treat root-equivalent material as "scan-only".
## TL;DR
A proposal is circulating to derive Silent Payment addresses directly from your Nostr `nsec`.
This is dangerous.
It makes your scan key root-equivalent to your identity key.
Anyone who gets your scan capability gets your `nsec` and your funds.
BAO Markets implements BIP-352 the correct way: hardened BIP-32 derivation with cryptographically separated scan/spend keys, and local-only scanning that never exposes private keys to any server.
---
## The Bad Idea
The proposal looks elegant at first:
```
t_scan = hash("nostr-sp/scan", npub)
t_spend = hash("nostr-sp/spend", npub)
scan_priv = nsec + t_scan
spend_priv = nsec + t_spend
```
Every Nostr identity gets a deterministic Silent Payment address. Reusable. Verifiable. Simple.
**Here's the fatal flaw:**
`t_scan` is publicly computable from your `npub`. That means:
```
nsec = scan_priv - t_scan
```
Anyone who learns your `scan_privkey` can recover your raw nsec and then derive your `spend_privkey`.
Your identity.
Your funds.
Everything.
## What BIP-352 Actually Requires
The Bitcoin specification is explicit:
- **Scan key** and **spend key** must be derived from **separate hardened BIP-32 paths**
- `m/352'/coin_type'/account'/1'/0` for scan
- `m/352'/coin_type'/account'/0'/0` for spend
These keys are **cryptographically independent**. Leaking the scan key reveals which outputs belong to you. It does **not** reveal the spend key. It does **not** reveal your seed. Your funds survive scan-key compromise.
This separation is the entire point of BIP-352's security model. Without it, you don't have Silent Payments. You have a fancy address format wrapped around a single-key wallet with extra steps.
## How BAO Markets Implements It
BAO's Silent Payments stack was built from scratch against the official BIP-352 v1.0.2 specification. All 57 official test vectors pass. Byte-for-byte compatible with Bitcoin Core, Sparrow, and every other compliant wallet.
### Key Derivation
```
scan = m/352'/coin_type'/account'/1'/0
spend = m/352'/coin_type'/account'/0'/0
```
Proper hardened derivation from a BIP-39 mnemonic. Scan and spend are independent. Your Nostr `nsec` is never used for Bitcoin key material.
### Local-Only Scanning (Protocol B1)
The BAO indexer stores only **public data** — tweak keys and output prefixes derived from transaction inputs. The client downloads batches and performs **all ECDH math in the browser**:
```
Client: ecdh = tweak_key * scan_privkey ← local, key never leaves device
Client: derives P0, P1... checks prefixes
Client: on match, fetches full tx, verifies scriptPubKey == P_xonly
```
**The server never sees `scan_privkey`. It never sees `spend_privkey`. It never sees ECDH results. It stores only public blockchain data that anyone could compute.**
### What the Server Knows
- Which height ranges you downloaded (coarse metadata)
- Your `scan_pubkey` (used for rate limiting, not for scanning)
That's it. Under a nation-state threat model with full VPS access, the attacker learns **which blocks you requested**. They do not learn which outputs are yours. They do not learn your keys. They cannot spend your funds.
### Browser Security
- Spending private keys are **never persisted** to `localStorage`
- Only public keys, address, and output metadata are stored
- Spending keys are re-derived in-memory from `spend_privkey + tweak` on every load
- If a malicious extension reads `localStorage`, it learns your output history. It does **not** learn your private keys.
---
## The "On-Chain Zaps" Discussion
There's growing talk about making Nostr zaps land on-chain as Silent Payments. The motivation is correct — reusable `npub` → private, non-reusable on-chain outputs. The privacy goal is correct.
But **deriving the Silent Payment keys from the `nsec` is the wrong path.**
If you build on-chain zaps this way:
- Every zap receiver who uses a remote scanner exposes their `nsec`
- Every zap sender who derives the address locally does so correctly, but the receiver's operational security is destroyed the moment they detect the payment
- The privacy harm is **durable and asymmetric** — the receiver can rotate, but the sender's payment history remains exposed if the scan key leaks
The correct architecture for on-chain zaps:
1. Nostr identity remains separate from Bitcoin wallet identity
2. Wallet derives SP keys from its own seed via BIP-352 paths
3. User publishes their `sp1q...` address on their Nostr profile
4. Senders derive outputs from the published SP address (not from `npub`)
5. Receivers scan locally or download tweak batches — scan key never transmitted
This preserves the privacy of both sender and receiver. It preserves the security of the Nostr identity. It is compatible with every BIP-352 wallet in existence.
---
## What BAO Ships Today
- ✅ Spec-compliant BIP-352 crypto (57/57 test vectors pass)
- ✅ Hardened BIP-32 key derivation with scan/spend separation
- ✅ Browser-based batch tweak-key download (Protocol B1)
- ✅ Real-time ZMQ indexer with `rawblock` + `sequence` ingestion
- ✅ WebSocket push notifications for new tweaks
- ✅ P2TR key-path sweep with `@scure/btc-signer`
- ✅ Full backend settlement service for sending to `sp1q...` addresses
- ✅ 250+ tests across crypto, scanner, hook, and API routes
Demo running now on signet at **bao.markets/demo**. Claim signet sats, generate a `tsp1q...` address, receive, scan, sweep. When mainnet launches, the same code runs against real Bitcoin.
---
## To Developers Building Zap Infrastructure
Please. Read BIP-352. Run the official test vectors. Do not derive Bitcoin private keys from Nostr private keys. Do not tell users to upload scan keys to servers. Do not train users to treat private key exposure as operationally acceptable.
The math is not forgiving. A single `nsec`-derived scan key uploaded to a Frigate-style indexer is not a privacy leak. It is total identity and fund compromise for every user who trusted your architecture.

2026-06-01 20:46:27 UTC

We are ready for the cube - a new Bitcoin L2 😃
https://blossom.primal.net/f724760a33405f5572487ed3c87fba7eb71128711beb1f0672cb3741fd623bc3.png
https://github.com/cube-btc/cube/tree/main

2026-06-01 18:17:09 UTC

- reply

Our cute cubes are here to save NOSTR https://image.nostr.build/c6d9b040b5677799caca291871ac1d9382c0bdaf6aa42e65daff3461a5a1b0fe.jpg

2026-06-01 10:08:21 UTC

- reply

https://blossom.primal.net/d44849d822d9f6633201b0343abf9376fc48757480229a39c1553121f83ba65e.png

2026-06-01 09:56:42 UTC

- reply

It is also in your BAO DEMO WALLET
https://blossom.primal.net/86b79270f4197030f48229b0daf0851bb9547c78d9c99a9fdcbc6db971c904c2.png

2026-06-01 09:51:45 UTC

Should we add cashu to our BAO COURT SYSTEM?
It can be tested in demo mode
FROSTR + PRIVACY + WOT + Lightning + Liquid
https://blossom.primal.net/cea0e9d53b01b17144a1a5447f3fd37f3cd30f1e9cdac810ab22b9aa71c30e89.png

2026-05-27 02:04:23 UTC

- reply

https://blossom.primal.net/2ed1ce6d045e8c2ee6cecd5e0427efc6c6903768d716c88b76a87342d5c7f828.mp4
https://bao.markets/cube/poll/455c7cd0c46fd6b338f1f587d0cd414a9c1307051b872f6b2e46eb125d525f8c?mode=cube
#nevent1q…e2jc

2026-05-27 01:46:14 UTC

- reply

https://blossom.primal.net/227c4f0f98c27e522369fd0b7a8116fdd523c07b88719bc60a12b22091027823.mp4
https://bao.markets/cube/poll/30d4128475dd9e3922461d0531e036aaa1beb4256030ffa9e8d51aaea308cc22?mode=cube
#nevent1q…8g6u

2026-05-26 12:00:46 UTC

- reply

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpu7jztI5Fs

2026-05-21 15:25:11 UTC

- reply

https://image.nostr.build/58ed030902de62ac2a5fbe633e9fcd5a4951491c0891b375aca8de8f9e7f9692.jpg

2026-05-20 21:46:35 UTC

- reply

Pablo D wearing a purple hat and @nprofile…z8ms branded jersey? ;) https://image.nostr.build/8b48f26d5c4adee5b0813cd77071dcff71f5af3bbed7681b75ae84bb61602f7f.jpg

2026-05-20 18:41:20 UTC

- reply

Lovely

2026-05-17 22:28:24 UTC

Bitcoin isn't a prediction market — it's a prediction stack.
The hash race is the bottom layer (random search).
Above it sits an economic layer where miners continuously predict energy prices, fee demand, and chain-tip outcomes.
BAO prediction markets just move that same predictive behavior from Bitcoin's internal mechanics to the external world.

2026-05-17 21:11:06 UTC

we do love polls too, at bao markets your nostr polls can turn into cubes!
https://blossom.primal.net/e38e2ce1cdb12e11ad9393ad01153e7597db970c30785775fa7389b57023882a.mp4

2026-05-17 16:37:11 UTC

Confidential transactions/contracts on our BAO LIQUID TESTNET can now be verified at https://explorer.bao.markets/
The Liquid Network is a Bitcoin layer-2 sidechain that enables fast, confidential settlement, operating independently from the Bitcoin mainchain with one-minute block times and two-block finality.
Confidential Transactions are a default feature on Liquid, using cryptographic protocols to hide both the amount and type of asset transacted from third parties, while still allowing the network to verify that no new coins are created.
Users can selectively reveal transaction details by sharing a blinding key, maintaining privacy.
Key characteristics include:
Privacy: Transaction metadata such as balances and asset types are obscured, protecting users from front-running and market surveillance.
Interoperability: Liquid Bitcoin (L-BTC) is pegged 1:1 to BTC via a two-way peg, allowing users to move assets between the mainchain and sidechain.
https://blossom.primal.net/56fe9ddbbf9ec861c593810666805771f08b1a6e29aaa75bcdd3c936cd6b8cd6.png

2026-05-17 16:29:00 UTC

- reply

https://mempool.bao.markets/

2026-05-17 16:28:14 UTC

https://blossom.primal.net/9161ea04d770acfa8dfe8ecb5213a7ae73a0e5b63cc4aac5f03ce36a4db83160.mp4

2026-05-06 14:59:29 UTC

https://image.nostr.build/b7a3c1f8eb4717827c5044ca2663d55432a8a96e81c94438b3dd62bd7c636744.jpg

2026-05-02 16:26:12 UTC

- reply

After you log in successfully tap on "advanced" at the bottom of bao wallet
https://image.nostr.build/415a2382d50ce39f91cff577e654413e908214b6bfc2aadeaf723df083bfb5cc.jpg

2026-05-02 16:22:22 UTC

The easiest way to make sats is to become bao oracle juror -confirming the truth.
You stake SATs and take bitcoin from jurors who try to game the outcome.
The selection is random based on algorithm derived from the block data.
You can sign up to become a bao juror, choose the spec and wait for the notifications via encrypted DM.
Still being tested, but this is how decentralised ORACLE works at BAO MARKETS in every dispute process.
https://image.nostr.build/66a177b24cf46e28e75cbec4ddde49744a530113386cfd52fb363420456882b7.jpg

2026-05-01 10:27:45 UTC

- reply

@nprofile…m6ku are you ready for this?

2026-04-29 22:48:16 UTC

- reply

Oh my days, wicked! Welcome ;)))

2026-04-29 22:47:04 UTC

https://video.nostr.build/48ef3d43459d96df67b0683cec4ca1172e73b5cee0ce8d57095e49239f17053b.mp4

2026-04-24 20:39:55 UTC

https://image.nostr.build/5fa5df3e5e31c735c60ff0fbc9be461c98d111fc9552aa7b7174eb81a9802793.jpg
https://youtu.be/9vM0oIEhMag

2026-04-22 11:50:55 UTC

Terminal experience on every page of
bao.markets
If you send your LLM agent they will know what to do, but they also have API mode to trade in their native habitat
https://image.nostr.build/e7a5d4e71c38c52e98e7763aa5d82f3f95e4b0ecfdbc927dbd1d27095aa885d5.jpg

2026-04-17 22:57:12 UTC

The BAO protocol functions as a decentralized oracle infrastructure designed to bridge real-world events with Bitcoin-native smart contracts. By utilizing prediction markets and a multi-layered verification system, it produces cryptographic attestations that allow Bitcoin UTXOs to respond to external data without central intermediaries.
Key Architectural Features
1. DLC-Compatible Attestations
Every market resolution results in a Schnorr adaptor signature formatted to the Discreet Log Contract (DLC) standard. This makes the "truth" produced by BAO immediately compatible with Bitcoin L1 transactions, Lightning HTLCs, and Liquid covenants. It acts as a universal key that native applications and wallets can use to settle contracts independently of the BAO web interface.
2. Randomized Juror Selection
To prevent collusion and Sybil attacks, the protocol employs an automated, randomized selection process for dispute resolution. Jurors are drawn from a pool of anonymous, registered pubkeys. Anonymity is maintained through NIP-59 (Gift Wrapping), protecting jurors from external pressure and ensuring that the identity of the verifiers remains as hidden as the identity of the bettors.
3. Layered Truth Discovery
The system scales its verification rigor based on the state of the market:
* Tier 1: Automated consensus for high-speed data.
* Tier 2: Randomly selected human juries for complex disputes.
* Tier 3: Proof-of-Work (PoW) staked juries, where truth is anchored by miner signatures.
This progression ensures that the cost to attack the "truth" increases proportionally with the value at stake.
4. Synthetic Covenants
While Bitcoin L1 lacks native, complex covenants, BAO enables "synthetic covenants" through cryptography. By locking sats to a specific market outcome point ($T$), the protocol
ensures that funds can only move once the corresponding adaptor signature is broadcast. The Bitcoin is effectively bound to a conditional logic gate—if the event occurs, the string
is produced, and the UTXO unlocks.
Potential Applications and Scalability
* Native Wallet Integration: Bitcoin wallets can monitor Nostr relays in the background for specific market IDs. Once a resolution string is detected, the wallet can automatically trigger L1 payouts, unlock inheritance vaults, or settle P2P insurance claims.
* Decentralized News Verification: Because the protocol incentivizes accurate predictions through financial stakes, the resulting resolution strings provide a high-assurance record of events that is resistant to censorship or corporate bias.
* Cross-Chain Interoperability: Any system capable of verifying Schnorr signatures (including many L2s and sidechains) can utilize BAO’s output.
This positions the protocol as a foundational "Truth Layer" for the broader Bitcoin ecosystem, where the definitive record of reality is maintained by anonymous, incentivized participants rather than central authorities.
#baomarkets #truthmachine #oraclebao

2026-04-17 17:57:55 UTC

- reply

Is BIP-110 failing?
https://blossom.primal.net/c07907b9128c343cfcc20d1d2ef8c1409a33705ebc751c90cc4ceea5af53a6d9.png
#nevent1q…2yxq

2026-04-10 00:24:49 UTC

Give them a follow. Projects to keep an eye on!
#nevent1q…pr0g

2026-04-10 00:18:46 UTC

- reply

Spark is a big deal. Breez SDK to the moon!!!

2026-04-09 07:27:45 UTC

- reply

good one!
#nevent1q…c5hm

2026-04-09 07:26:25 UTC

- reply

https://blossom.primal.net/1efde0eb8218a0b39beafe713738d11a4a01d38cbad0a768f66d108beec1da47.png
#baomarkets #predictionmarkets #anthropic #llm
#nevent1q…krt6

2026-04-09 07:23:30 UTC

- reply

https://blossom.primal.net/39606a6914b9f8ef92dbf04954e909d168f1b6f7925063a16160a38b463373e2.png

2026-04-09 07:22:53 UTC

Anthropic just dropped benchmark scores for their unreleased model. The gap is embarrassing for everyone else.
https://blossom.primal.net/be18ce121f48657700b50dc487d5426283ceb9b2dfd6a6f3a806189eae54f192.png

2026-04-09 01:54:11 UTC

BAO MARKETS ->>
A PROTOCOL OF TRUTH - >>
TRUTH MACHINE
https://primal.net/a/naddr1qq25jctcfam4yemsfav42df4vfez672sfpkyyq3qw0v7r8hs0cxsnr7ql30mwhdslp2gyn5tfepeqkkvucudmajxn9sqxpqqqp65wfgwwzf

2026-04-09 01:48:29 UTC

- reply

Nice article!

2026-04-09 01:45:49 UTC

- reply

Can someone tell them about the silent payments? ;)
PS. @nprofile…dsry

2026-04-09 01:42:29 UTC

- reply

It's one of best open source models at the moment but hard to run as full self hosted due to hardware requirements and massive size. It's got a full spec from coding to video, voice, etc
Kimi is also pretty good at coding

2026-04-07 19:06:12 UTC

#bolero https://youtu.be/Dh9bUD-hC0A

2026-04-01 04:56:12 UTC

Are you into bitcoin mining ?
https://bao.markets/demo/monitor/mining
https://blossom.primal.net/86cf8eb68148b09e4dab21601ec8e861016b7016d35350e1218d4c72a9bf86cb.png
#bitcoinmining #hashrate #predictionmarkets #predictions #trading #baomarkets #hedge

2026-04-01 04:52:44 UTC

Have you visited https://bao.markets/demo/monitor yet?
https://blossom.primal.net/b7191a8427779655b18233e0517bec6c2fadfa19c47e019efee8effa2f381143.png