brock
Brock

It's bad out there guys. 4 & 5 year HODL return and risk adjusted returns are absolutely in the toilet. Wall Street is undermining bitcoin's use case as a superior storer of value.
https://blossom.primal.net/8585cb8200d46b817caef56443cec21c424a4f61a0f4032bb90b2930632eb21c.png
https://blossom.primal.net/a6e109d941785e9f2ae6a738133def8298f2e1180131b19e10a93e326d44aff1.png

2026-02-04 19:25:10 UTC

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Right now I am so pissed off I am fuming. I never celebrated outwardly at $120k (barely felt like validation) but now I feel like my faith in this project is being rugged. Clearly, it’s my own problem to manage but the emotions are real and have to be overcome. Truly the hardest professional experience of my entire life. @nprofile…fg9w

2026-02-04 17:35:12 UTC

There aren’t anymore longs to liquidate…
https://blossom.primal.net/edf1971d3346d558504e7c9c2221daaa2be33f714d6fd14df5f77df1b1ca5100.jpg

2026-02-04 16:51:23 UTC

Bitcoin podcasts have surprisingly little bitcoin talk these days.

2026-02-04 04:26:55 UTC

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NFTs are worthless, bro. We proved that last cycle.

2026-02-03 18:57:04 UTC

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Bottom signal.
#nevent1q…wcnd

2026-02-03 15:05:44 UTC

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He's a genius fiat puppet master, got to give him that.

2026-02-02 03:24:40 UTC

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This is pretty painful for anyone who adopted bitcoin fully in 2021…huge disappointment after a lot of hard work learning, hodling, risking our reputation. We never got our moment. And this is 100% manipulation by banks and sovereigns who are actively trying to slow retail adoption. Anyone who tells you otherwise is a spook.

2026-02-01 18:33:22 UTC

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They truly think we're stupid. And unfortunately, I think they are right.

2026-02-01 15:36:43 UTC

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Every power law bro is a spook. Bitcoin in a fiat system is exponential, yet all the influencers this cycle are anchoring retail on diminishing returns. It’s crazy that guys like @nprofile…p088 are falling for the schtick.

2026-02-01 08:55:42 UTC

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Red

2026-01-31 22:35:12 UTC

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Shhhh…don’t let Binance know. They’ll come after you.

2026-01-31 19:55:17 UTC

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He's pot committed at this point. Reputation is on the line. Being a gold bug has served him well personally...would never expect for him to change his tune, even if privately he is accumulating bitcoin because he has grown to understand it.

2026-01-31 16:50:27 UTC

I’ll tell you what…bitcoin hasn’t been much fun lately.

2026-01-31 15:11:14 UTC

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Answer: Not very much longer.

2026-01-30 18:30:26 UTC

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It is incredible how much money is being thrown around in the debasement trade but *not* in bitcoin. It's like they are actively avoiding it. Or actively suppressing it.

2026-01-30 16:46:04 UTC

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Yes! Yes! Let's show everyone who is swimming naked! Accelerate!

2026-01-30 15:34:13 UTC

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I think the challenge for bitcoin is that in order to be a superior monetary technology, it MUST transmit superior value over space and time. As soon as it loses one or both of those functions for a long duration, the thesis starts to implode. I agree that people can't get caught up on short duration price fluctuations but 5 years isn't a short duration. It needs to perform on a risk-adjusted basis when we start to talk about 4+ year durations. Either bitcoin is a superior money technology or it isn't. There isn't a huge amount of ambiguity on whether the thesis is holding.

2026-01-30 08:50:35 UTC

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Maybe a stupid question…but I’ll ask it anyways.
How much of this are you planning to / willing to open source. Or did you reference any publicly available information? I’m not a developer so don’t really know how to prompt efficiently. I’m going to power through it but would be more efficient to have a baseline to point my agents to.

2026-01-30 03:49:17 UTC

Worst is over dudes. Wyckoff Accumulation confirmed.
https://blossom.primal.net/05e163b71f1873b5abaffdbb710333e84e166eca65fbaac386aa47f01fc154a2.jpg

2026-01-29 19:14:01 UTC

I’ve been told this is a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern.
https://blossom.primal.net/a3fb29b0feeec098faee6ce52731519ca8ad8ac7331cceed0f83ad541a2341bc.jpg

2026-01-29 18:11:32 UTC

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For the MSTR shareholders, ensuring that there is as little paper bitcoin as possible is a fiduciary imperative. As Strategy’s entire business model is built on the superiority of bitcoin as a sound money asset - Saylor has a fiduciary duty to provide (as part of his products) proof that $MSTR bitcoins are truly a proportionate share of a hard 21M supply cap. Until Saylor makes this clear - shows proof that he has bought the bitcoins and that his custodians are not rehypothecating his bitcoins - he is in derelict in his fiduciary duties.
Love this accountability and hope that the bitcoin community does not relent. Until he builds this capability, Strategy shares should go to zero.
#nevent1q…rwvh

2026-01-29 18:01:36 UTC

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Drive Strategy to zero until they prove their bitcoin reserves are not rehypothecated - by them or by their custodians.

2026-01-29 17:58:10 UTC

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Yes, this is unacceptable. We need to understand the root cause. That should be the imperative of the bitcoin community? Is fractional reserving by Coinbase and Binance suppressing the price? Is MSTR enabling this fractional reserving by locking up illiquid bitcoins into these custodians?

2026-01-29 16:50:15 UTC

Bitcoin attracts autists and creates psychopaths.

2026-01-29 15:44:37 UTC

What just happened?
https://blossom.primal.net/48a920d98f9c503d342e6fcbc047e1c814ff10414d555e29ae720849404d1ff0.jpg

2026-01-29 15:27:54 UTC

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When was the episode with @npub1tdu…8k5l ?

2026-01-29 14:36:47 UTC

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Can you share (or have you shared) your podcasting set-up? Specifically around the software.

2026-01-29 14:35:25 UTC

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Imagine if all Americans said “Fuck this.” and decided that China and the BRICs can have gold and we’ll build the future American economy around bitcoin. Another 200+ years of prosperity within America’s beautiful borders.
Bring back American exceptionalism.
#nevent1q…gndw

2026-01-29 14:21:49 UTC

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Gold is pumping because central banks are buying physical gold and a communist state (2nd largest economy) has encouraged its population to buy physical gold.

2026-01-29 13:36:36 UTC

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I disagree. If someone (🙋🏼‍♂️) held through the 80% drawdown then they’re 100% “owed a bull market” if bitcoin is what we say it is…that is a superior money, moving value over space and time. Risk-adjusted returns require compensation for that downside volatility. Absolute returns are a useless measure. It’s all about volatility adjusted returns.

2026-01-29 12:51:26 UTC

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It isn’t “do something” … it’s don’t “move the goalposts” … don’t act as if everything is fine and if you’re not acting like everything is fine then “you’re a part of the problem” or “should have known better”. No other bitcoin adopters have gone this long without a period of euphoria to help with the pain of the volatility.
Every analyst and influencer who is acting like “everything is fine” had a large allocation that has gone through a 10x+ windfall. Those who made a large allocation during the last euphoric bull run have held for ~4+ years, went through an 80% drawdown, and are now up less than 2x on that allocation. That’s bad risk management for an investor.
Bitcoin has recently failed on a key tenet of acting as money (transmit value over space and time) for those people. Maybe there are not many of us, but more INFLOOENCERS should show some empathy to those of us who are bitcoiners but have been put through significant pain for coming up on 5 years without relief.

2026-01-29 03:31:25 UTC

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NGU is required for bitcoin to be successful. It has to be a superior storer of value over space and time. Risk-adjusted. For those who adopted in 2021, it has not been a superior storer of value over time.
Every bitcoin analyst and influencer has been wrong about this “cycle” … those of us who adopted in 2020/2021 have out both our capital and reputations at risk for this asset and that trust in the protocol has not been rewarded by the market.
Something is off and it is worth trying to understand what and how and to call out any bad actors who are actively manipulating the purchasing power of bitcoin.
Analysts and influencers suggesting “we haven’t been patient enough” is disingenuous and I think you understand well enough what I am saying and why there is a large contingent with negative sentiment…and maybe a growing resentment of those earlier classes who have enjoyed their windfall and now are changing their tune as we enter into the longest period without meaningful risk-adjusted returns over an entire halving cycle.

2026-01-29 03:14:42 UTC

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And it was $65k before that…come on earlier classes…stop moving the goalposts. Something rotten is going on.
https://blossom.primal.net/61c5d004835c9117278334c5a6ad6737e12841b18f713eb4239e2bfe27850640.png

2026-01-29 02:52:02 UTC

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Trump is desperate to get the broader economy going in 2026…we’re a couple months from seeing the impacts of the Big Beautiful Bill flowing through.

2026-01-28 19:39:30 UTC

Bitcoin 4 & 5 year hodl returns converging around near record lows.
https://blossom.primal.net/22fc7c629ca7540d241827129ee18802409041f1ebfe929c5c5ff53bc868c69a.png

2026-01-28 19:02:02 UTC

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The other legacy social media companies have achieved the challenge of network effects. I’m sitting here with ~200 followers after being on NOSTR for 1+ years. It’s definitely a weakness of NOSTR.

2026-01-27 00:31:59 UTC

Who tapped @nprofile…7ks8 on the shoulder and said “slow down”? Happened within the last month…

2026-01-25 17:27:02 UTC

As @nprofile…5umt says, Bitcoin’s NGU is the most important metric in bitcoin. To act as if all these other metrics suggest we’ve never been stronger is naive and/or misleading. Bitcoin’s stuck in a 4+ year chop that undermines its thesis as a superior technology. We’ve got to get to the root cause of the underperformance.

2026-01-23 21:55:21 UTC

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This is true.

2026-01-23 15:51:48 UTC

The best application of vibe coding is to disrupt existing industries. Not to make profit for yourself. But to open source closed systems that require a monopoly to function. Break the monopolies. Disrupt the existing system. Bring true capitalism to the market and reprice the economy.

2026-01-22 17:20:39 UTC

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👀 Where are the future lady bitcoiners? 😂

2026-01-22 11:40:07 UTC

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Congratulations and awesome job building a software that addresses this market. The biggest challenge for Uber and Lyft was creating network effects. And battling license limitations / regulatory hurdles. Just a heads up as you start thinking about and working through adoption dynamics.

2026-01-22 04:53:29 UTC

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And it went from $0-$100k/bitcoin. Keep it up and it goes to $1M-$10M and the only buyer of US treasuries is the Fed and US banks.

2026-01-22 04:47:03 UTC

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Long-term, bitcoin competes with public and privately issued bonds. So to that addressable market - yes - its purchasing power does act like a deterrent for deficit spending. Spend too much and bitcoin will be repriced in your currency.
Recently, the Fed has been selling its balance sheet ($3T over last 3-4 years). That action is a balance sheet reduction that effectively has offset previous deficit spending impacts. But that dynamic should be changing here pretty soon as they restart QE and bitcoin’s liquid/traded supply begins to shrink at these levels.

2026-01-21 18:43:55 UTC

@nprofile…6dtc made an important pivot on his Monday podcast. He went from a long time call of $250k-$1M in 2026-27 to $150k-$200k (with a potential drawdown in the near term). What new information contributed his dramatic change in forecast?

2026-01-21 17:57:53 UTC

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https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExczQ5OWJiaTJzNDVteXEwZnJkdHd0am13YTllbjh1aXZ3dHl6eTMzaiZlcD12MV9naWZzX3NlYXJjaCZjdD1n/XGhDW5hFOsPsIj4fLC/giphy.gif

2026-01-18 16:18:05 UTC

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Honestly, almost nothing reaches NOSTR. That’s not good for NOSTR. Content strengthens the network effects. Even some superfluous content would be better than a structural lack of content.

2026-01-18 04:13:30 UTC

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Needed more bitcoin in that chat, tbh! Hated waiting until the end to hear hurried thoughts about what y’all are thinking. This used to be one of my favorite episodes each month!
Very generally, the bitcoin podcasters who were so instrumental in onboarding people to bitcoin last cycle have lost their enthusiasm for bitcoin and bitcoin’s inevitable and critical role in reshaping the world. Yet those same podcasters still have the microphones and the largest audiences/network effects.
Bring back the enthusiasm!

2026-01-17 15:05:14 UTC

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Bro, class of ‘16 has had so much euphoria since 2016. Sure it was bumpy. But 2016 has been compensated for their risk. Give me a break. Class of ‘21 sitting here for 5 years with the lowest annual return on their long term bitcoin hodl ever. And we’ve gone through the 80% drawdown in between.
https://blossom.primal.net/7977799da7b33f7cc6404611ef27765069c7322cb00da53d82f86c192ff51e35.jpg

2026-01-17 13:19:18 UTC

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The vibes are much better over here but the actual content is much, much inferior to what’s over on Twitter. On NOSTR, there’s effectively no macro content, no thoughtful commentary, and no major discussions between “reputable” accounts.

2026-01-17 11:14:27 UTC

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No one new has gotten “rich on bitcoin” in a long time…

2026-01-03 14:28:49 UTC

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And you rewarded with $65k within 4 years. So even your $20k buy more than tripled within 4 years. Class of ‘21 probably went all in around $50k…and here we languish at $88k more than 4 years later.

2026-01-03 14:18:45 UTC

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The 80% drawdown is critical. For the class of ‘21, who had their first large position established on the way up, held all the way down to $16k and stacked aggressively, every other class has experienced a euphoric return on those investments (even the initial ones). Class of ‘21 is barely above water on their first large allocations, after 4+ years. Totally different psyche than any other class.

2026-01-03 14:15:49 UTC

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Especially when considering hodling through the 80% drawdown.

2026-01-03 12:51:12 UTC

@nprofile…qg9v @nprofile…26zu no bitcoiner in any prior bitcoin class has held this long without experiencing euphoria. We experienced the 80% drawdown. Class of 2021 hodlers are the real ones…here not for the gains but for the freedom.

2025-12-30 11:51:37 UTC

Flew too close to the sun this cycle. Got a little greedy, forgot to be humble (or chose not to be), and now I am stressed for bitcoin to bail me out. Lessons learned, regardless how it turns out. But I’d really like for it to turn out a certain way.

2025-12-03 22:19:46 UTC

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“Is the bull market in the room with us?”

2025-09-04 20:43:03 UTC

The conversation with @nprofile…686c and @nprofile…v6s8 was odd and confusing …
(1) Networks and network effects are exponential and should not follow the power law.
(2) Debt is a priority claim on assets & associated cash flow. Equity is a residual claim.
(3) The interest rates for debt issued when bitcoin is successful would need to be equivalent to appreciation rate of bitcoin.
(4) When the capital comes for bitcoin, it won’t follow the power law. And it won’t happen gradually.
(5) Matthew has a lot of inconsistencies in his positioning. Anchoring on the Power Law but then struggling to reconcile and explain the implications of increased bitcoin adoption.
Felt FUD-y after listening to it.

2025-06-02 12:26:37 UTC

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https://tenor.com/view/gjirlfriend-gif-14457952604098199169

2025-05-30 20:04:01 UTC

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Hey Jack, following up on sweet home Alabama … any chance we’re up soon?

2025-05-30 19:59:01 UTC

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N. AL

2025-05-15 15:39:22 UTC

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When is Alabama getting rolled out?

2025-05-12 15:52:21 UTC

Tick tock, next block

2025-05-11 19:28:10 UTC

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Thank you!

2025-05-11 02:02:09 UTC

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When Alabama?

2025-05-07 01:59:32 UTC

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We’ve been consolidating for 3-4 months without a blow-off top during this bull. I think this level is a fair place to take a loan as long as you’re generating cash to (1) with no risk cover interest payments and (2) start paying down the loan. That’s more increasing capacity / reinvesting in a cash flowing asset.
If you’re looking to build something from scratch or acquire a business/asset, then I’d wait for near the bottom of the bear.

2025-05-07 01:32:35 UTC

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Never take a loan when bitcoin is pumping. Right around now is about the last time I would take out a heavy BTC backed loan. If we pump to $150k+ probably best to wait until things cool back off.
the product is extremely useful but those who abuse it will get punished for their ego and naivety.

2025-05-06 20:12:59 UTC

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Ready for the ticker change to XXI 👍🏼👍🏼

2025-05-06 20:06:27 UTC

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Everyone seems onboard and the administration is presumably supportive so I’m confident that it eventually closes. I’m more interested in the timing. Like in the next month? 3Q25? 2026?

2025-05-06 16:07:54 UTC

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Bizarre move from FL

2025-05-06 16:05:40 UTC

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@nprofile…2q0q please let me know if you need help with Alabama…happy to make whatever phone calls necessary to ensure this happens quickly!

2025-05-06 16:03:51 UTC

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Thank you! Excited to be able to build our life on top of the hardest asset in the world.

2025-05-06 15:24:44 UTC

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Great! What’s the rollout plan for the United States? Specifically Alabama.

2025-05-06 14:18:20 UTC

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Day 2
https://media4.giphy.com/media/BsQAVgY6ksvIY/giphy.gif?cid=6c09b952j7njzbzfbf9i9gzk02hngelnld3wilz8dx65rpz2&ep=v1_internal_gif_by_id&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g
nevent1qqs2dcasqsln32n7lt5e3qnh72mlyurf664tf8cvpaawjkqu297fcuqpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgj4cl63

2025-05-06 00:18:04 UTC

I’m not technically proficient enough to fully understand the drama unfolding with bitcoin core. I just bought a higher capacity hard drive for my node.

2025-05-05 21:33:09 UTC

How are publicly traded miners staying solvent right now? Absolutely nuts how the hashrate is dislocating from the price. So many legacy PPA contracts have to be getting close to being (or already are) unprofitable.

2025-05-05 17:30:25 UTC

Japan should sell $100B of their US Treasuries and buy Bitcoin. Would be an important step to addressing their demographics catastrophe.

2025-05-03 17:03:45 UTC

Bad news: For this bull market, the only catalyst that (likely) matters for an epic rip is the US Federal government’s bitcoin bill. If it passes, then game on to the mid six figures. If it doesn’t, we might be peaking in the high 100k and then entering into another flailing few years as the narrative seeks to coalesce.
Good news: It seems like this administration knows that it needs bitcoin to catalyze an economic turnaround. Things aren’t going very good with continuing with the status quo.

2025-04-29 23:50:41 UTC

MSTR is likely to announce a $6B+ profit for1Q25 … earnings call is May 1.
The photo is what Google AI says analysts are expecting.
👀 🍿
https://blossom.primal.net/373c5aa9121a343d92aea4f440295f212837dca89a16a401fc7c6da2d25def31.jpg

2025-04-29 13:15:21 UTC

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…Bitcoiners have opinions and aren’t afraid to share them.

2025-04-29 00:39:44 UTC

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It needs to be a lower quality SoV to encourage the next step as a medium of exchange. Probably have a decade+ to go before the market transitions towards the future the OG bitcoiners are preaching.

2025-04-28 14:26:19 UTC

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Don’t know where the data comes from but I want to believe.
I feel seen.
#nevent1q…gmqz

2025-04-28 00:57:21 UTC

How much should we trust Saylor? That’s the question top of my mind tonight…

2025-04-24 15:45:02 UTC

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But if you bought CEP at $13 you did pretty good.

2025-04-24 14:34:58 UTC

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From my reading of the transaction, it already is, as CEP.

2025-04-23 22:45:21 UTC

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Yep. And the question is whether he will allowed to be himself or not. I guess we’ll see. In the short term, I fully expect that he will deliver. If @nprofile…9swg resigns or is fired, that’d be a red flag. But I feel like self interests are all aligned here. Whereas Saylor was a bitcoin skeptic whose headquarters are in DC with In-Q-Tel involved … lots of red flags there. There are fewer red flags with XXI. I think all parties involved with XXI benefit tremendously if Bitcoin jumps to $5M/btc … LFG

2025-04-23 22:37:22 UTC

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I’ve been looking for a company I could trust would actually run the MSTR playbook. In the short term, this checks all the boxes. Rooting so hard for @nprofile…9swg to freaking deliver in every single way. Super bullish.

2025-04-23 22:29:14 UTC

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I don’t know, the upside for Lutnik to leverage bitty if he has $300M+ in pure bitcoin to take it from $90k to $5M is probably enough to offset the fiat risks. I’m hugely bullish on this announcement.

2025-04-23 22:20:03 UTC

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Nah, @nprofile…9swg is as legit as they come. He 100% would not sell out. #accelerate

2025-04-23 16:44:42 UTC

Capitalism works.

2025-04-23 15:36:01 UTC

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Congrats, Jack!

2025-04-23 12:36:58 UTC

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Good people can do bad things.
https://www.whistleblowers.org/fraud-triangle/

2025-04-22 15:03:19 UTC

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Love it! When bitcoin backed loans in Alabama?

2025-04-22 02:27:18 UTC

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I disagree. The costs of AI will be unsustainable. AI is the next equity bubble they’re pumping. Going to encourage government / government aided capital spending on grids and computer that otherwise wouldn’t have happened.