Real Man Sports

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Last Notes

2025-09-02 18:23:51 UTC

https://v.nostr.build/Imz7fGSBxdW62fdT.mp4

2025-08-25 13:23:45 UTC

https://rumble.com/v6y1yc0-the-perfect-fantasy-football-cheat-sheet-for-free.html

2025-08-23 12:52:22 UTC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kRTf-8df-o

2025-08-19 16:03:42 UTC

I’ve done three drafts so far, and sometimes when it’s my pick there are certain players around ADP I’m not even considering, even if they slip a few slots. That doesn’t mean these are bad picks — some of my fades have turned in monster years, probably too many. But I can only call it as I see it, and I’ll list a few of them below based on the NFFC ADP chart for the RotoWire Online Championships over the last few days.
Round 1: None
I would take any of these guys at their rough ADPs. My least favorites are Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey, due to age, wear and injury risk, but their ceilings are both obviously 1.1 as both have been the 1.1 recently. I might have said Justin Jefferson with his hamstring injury, but he has since returned to practice.
Round 2: Derrick Henry, De’Von Achane, Trey McBride
Henry is a rock, but everyone gets old eventually, even if he didn’t show *any* signs of it last year. Plus you know there’s no pass-catching upside.
Achane I drafted in the Stacker_Sports league, but only because he fell to Round 3 (and it was before he got hurt). The calf injury is a bad sign for someone who is undersized and not that durable.
McBride just seems pricey for a guy with six career TDs, modest per-target efficiency and an erratic QB. Brock Bowers in Round 2, no problem, but McBride should be Round 3 or 4.
Round 3: Marvin Harrison, James Cook
Normally I love second-year receivers, but I had Harrison last year, and he and Kyler Murray never seemed to be on the same page. When Murray did look his way, he was rarely open, usually outleaping defenders on jump balls to make a play. Harrison just doesn’t seem that good to me, and Murray is far from an ideal supporting QB, especially with McBride around.
Cook was a TD machine last year, but I expect that to regress massively, and Josh Allen doesn’t check it down that much, limiting Cook’s catch upside.
Round 4: George Kittle, Mike Evans, Joe Burrow
Kittle is a great real-life player, but even with a depleted SF receiving corps, he’s never been a massive target guy. Maybe his blocking is just too valuable. He also gets hurt a lot.
Evans has been automatic, but every year it gets more likely he’ll miss. Age catches up to everyone.
Burrow is great, but if I’m going to take a QB this early, I’d prefer him to be mobile or at least a rock durability-wise. Think Drew Brees, not Andrew Luck.
Round 5: DK Metcalf, Jameson Williams, Alvin Kamara
Metcalf is a physical phenom, but he’s not that good at football. Adjusting to a new, run-heavy team with a very particular quarterback might not go so smoothly.
Williams seems mispriced. I’d way rather have Jordan Addison, for example, and he’s suspended and goes two rounds later. Williams is fast and can make plays, but ARSB is a target hog, and Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs also need to be fed. Making matters worse, rookie Isaac TeSlaa might force his way into some targets.
Kamara is just old and on a terrible team. I don’t like drafting players just for volume without some baseline quality guarantee.
Round 6: None
I could almost just take one of these guys at random, and I’d be fine with it at cost.
Round 7: Aaron Jones, Travis Kelce, Matthew Golden
Jones is old, has had his share of injuries and the Vikings brought in a bruiser in Jordan Mason who could see some of the valuable goal-line work.
Kelce is in decline, and the Chiefs finally have some other weapons, so Patrick Mahomes doesn’t have to force feed him. (I actually took Kelce in one draft, but only as part of a massive Chiefs stack.)
Golden seems like a good prospect, but the Packers spread the ball around so much, it’s hard to see any one of them having a great year. Plus, Jayden Reed is really good, so I’d rather take him in Round 8.
Round 8: JK Dobbins, Khalil Shakir
Dobbins doesn’t catch a lot of passes, has lost some of his explosiveness and always gets hurt.
Shakir is a good player, but Josh Allen spreads it around so much, it’s hard to see much upside. Similar situation as Golden, but far slower and less athletic.
Round 9 Brian Robinson, Joe Mixon, Dak Prescott
Robinson might be traded which probably won’t improve his value and could hurt it. He’s an early-down plodder without much explosiveness or pass-catching.
Mixon has a serious foot injury, and he’s got a fair amount of mileage on him, even if he’s able to get back to 100 percent.
Prescott is fine, but there is so much QB depth in 2025, there’s no need to take a mid-level one in the single-digit rounds, unless you’re pairing him with CeeDee Lamb for the NFFC playoffs.
Round 10: Keenan Allen, Cam Skattebo
Allen is just too long in the tooth and on the decline, get someone younger with upside.
I actually drafted Skattebo before realizing the extent of his hamstring injury. It’s not good for a rookie to get zero reps in the preseason. He could easily open No. 3 on the depth chart, and then he’s just taking up space until someone gets hurt. I’d cross him off this fade list if he returns in the next week or so.
https://cdn.nostrcheck.me/6bae33c8bc26a5c573912af4b96b6ef690258ea3735ba90ca05d9b7a607272e8/e521350cfe55cf2eea214a2d8facff6dfa983daf47175bda1d8d2693acc97f20.webp

2025-08-18 09:50:34 UTC

I often come across tidbits on Twitter about players late in the draft and then forget about them when I’m actually drafting. Figured I’d just list them all here (will update as I see fit) so I have them all in one place. In no particular order:
Isaac TeSlaa, WR, DET — It’s like investing in Tesla. Possible third WR in DET, making some noise in camp. Lot of mouths to feed in that passing game now though.
Isaiah Bond, WR, CLE — Beat the rap, people were saying he should have been a second rounder, and both Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman are less than sure things.
Ordonde Gadsden, TE, LAC — I probably drafted his dad at one point. Making noise at camp on a team with a good QB and thin pass-catching corps.
Roman Wilson, WR, PIT — Barely played last year, thin receiving corps in PIT, got some praise from Aaron Rodgers, had a good preseason game. And for whatever reason the Steelers have developed receivers well under Mike Tomlin.
Jalen Royals, WR, KC — Another crowded receiving corps, but Rashee Rice is likely to be suspended at some point, and Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown are not target hogs.
KeAndre Lambert-Smith, WR, LAC — Apparently having a good camp, another candidate to catch some of Justin Herbert’s passes if Tre Harris doesn’t pan out.
Dont’e Thornton, WR, LV — He’s 6-5, seeing first-team reps and Jakobi Meyers is their No. 1 receiver (after Brock Bowers, of course.)
Ollie Gordon, RB, MIA — De’Von Achane is already banged up, and Jaylen Wright hasn’t done anything in the NFL yet. Gordon has looked good so far this preseason.
Darren Waller, TE, MIA — Who knows if there’s anything left in the tank, but the Dolphins have no one of note after the big two.
I left out guys like Breshard Smith, Woody Marks, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Sean Tucker and Eric Ayomanor because I’ve already drafted and won’t forget about them, but you could slot them in too.

2025-08-16 13:57:04 UTC

The @stacker_sports draft:
https://www.realmansports.com/p/stacker_news-draft

2025-06-23 17:56:40 UTC

https://www.realmansports.com/p/the-truth-about-fantasy-football

2025-06-23 17:55:30 UTC

New Podcast:
https://rumble.com/v6v7qy7-the-truth-about-fantasy-football.html

2025-06-08 19:07:14 UTC

one of the greatest matches of all time

2025-06-06 13:47:54 UTC

Musetti came to play

2025-06-05 07:38:43 UTC

Watched the Djokovic-Zverev match last night. Zverev is really good, Djokovic just broke him mentally. Looked like vintage Djokovic. Betting odds were like +1400 on him to win the French before the match too.

2025-06-05 07:38:36 UTC

Watching a lot of NBA clips on Twitter lately -- algo keeps feeding them to me. One thing you realize is that for good players, they just need to set up a *look* at the basket, and the defender is toast.

2025-06-05 07:38:23 UTC

2025-03-10 08:17:35 UTC

Livestream of fantasy baseball draft:
https://x.com/Chris_Liss/status/1898810266865000544

2025-01-16 15:26:41 UTC

New Podcast:
https://fountain.fm/episode/3JqZPsd8uFHBozrFefgN

2024-12-04 18:25:15 UTC

https://www.realmansports.com/p/week-14

2024-11-30 19:15:07 UTC

- reply

yeah, the commentary is where he excels

2024-11-20 18:58:20 UTC

Excerpt from today’s podcast:
https://www.realmansports.com/p/week-12
https://nostrcheck.me/media/6bae33c8bc26a5c573912af4b96b6ef690258ea3735ba90ca05d9b7a607272e8/43e5a444d355ca3afec831506fa8a8eaecc2718be0c4b97d29ad2fc3ec54bd93.mp4

2024-11-13 22:00:45 UTC

https://fountain.fm/episode/ZDyk5tCdNd2xsdkD89j3

2024-11-05 09:24:08 UTC

Excerpt from Monday Night Observations:
https://highlighter.com/a/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzq6awx0ytcf49c4eez2h5h94kaa5syk82xu6m4yx2qhvm0fs8yuhgqy88wumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmv9uqzqnt0dejxz7fdfe5kw6r5948kyum9wfmxzarfdah8xttrdfnnz7pemhvma4
https://nostrcheck.me/media/6bae33c8bc26a5c573912af4b96b6ef690258ea3735ba90ca05d9b7a607272e8/88a8d2107bc757cc75c428441d0b31658354a336b96fd5798829514f38897b85.webp

2024-10-10 12:23:34 UTC

https://fountain.fm/episode/wV5bW5mwSSNZvff4Ypvq

2024-10-08 10:07:56 UTC

- reply

it's true. Or if Nabers doesn’t drop that 4th-down pass.

2024-10-07 14:00:09 UTC

Excerpt from Week 5 Observations:
https://nostrcheck.me/media/134743ca8ad0203b3657c20a6869e64f160ce48ae6388dc1f5ca67f346019ee7/72e37c7528dcba75fd13b52eeae203ab8eab5d6f52f8046424e0bccc117310b8.webp

2024-10-03 06:55:54 UTC

If Cousins keeps struggling, might soon be time for Falcons to whip out Penix.

2024-10-01 10:25:46 UTC

you know you’re running well when the commissioner of your ATS picking pool emails to ask where to send the money, and you hadn’t even realized you had won.

2024-09-29 08:19:47 UTC

have to say the new version of @npub1w0r…cu4x is really good. Takes me 30 seconds to paste in my paid substack free on nostr. Nice work @npub1l2v…ajft. Highly recommend for long form posts.

2024-09-26 08:48:24 UTC

https://fountain.fm/episode/m9GWVv5JSZRSgEzm9Wz5

2024-09-25 22:47:22 UTC

New video: https://www.realmansports.com/p/week-4

2024-09-24 16:34:06 UTC

- reply

It’s going well.
One of my goals is to put more sports content to nostr any way I can. I’m not a coder, can’t build software, but this is something I know how to do!

2024-09-24 16:00:40 UTC

- reply

I have a sports podcast, and though I occasionally mention bitcoin, it’s not really a “bitcoin sports podcast”. Let me know if you’re ever looking for a guest.
My other account is here @npub1dtf…hgu0.

2024-09-22 22:04:06 UTC

honestly feel a lot better losing in Week 1 because had I pivoted off Cincy I probably would have lost Week 2 or Week 3

2024-09-22 22:03:45 UTC

this has to be the most insane Survivor year of all time

2024-09-22 19:59:54 UTC

Giants are a tough watch

2024-09-22 18:10:05 UTC

what a catch by Nabers!

2024-09-22 17:35:14 UTC

sick TD by Jameel McLaughlin — was dead to rights on 4th down.

2024-09-22 17:05:05 UTC

Circa Picks: Colts -1.5, Texans -2, Ravens -1, Falcons +3.5, Cincy -7.5

2024-09-22 17:01:19 UTC

Let’s do this shit!

2024-09-22 16:44:11 UTC

- reply

Love might have been doing this two years ago — maybe he just needed the experience.
Baker’s best season until last was his rookie year. And Peyton played and got destroyed as a rookie. CJ Stroud was good out of the gate. Mahomes’ sitting might have cost the Chiefs a Super Bowl — he was great in his one start in Week 17.
Geno was set to start for the Jets 10 years ago, but he got punched in the face and broke his jaw, Ryan Fitzpatrick played well and Geno never got the job back.
QB does take more practice than say RB, but IMO very few who got their confidence crushed ever would have made it.
Agree re the flow state, but being bad isn’t a death sentence for a rookie QB as long as he shows *some* signs and gets better.

2024-09-21 17:55:29 UTC

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Could even be beneficial if it saves him some wear and tear, but probably looking at 250-carries instead of 280 if he had a lesser backup.
I’m of two minds on that. Think most of the ones whose confidence gets destroyed weren’t gonna make it anyway. And a dead-end season should be cost-free audition time for the entire team.

2024-09-21 08:19:22 UTC

QB comps (style, not necessarily skill):
CJ Stroud -- Joe Montana
Patrick Mahomes -- Aaron Rodgers
Joe Burrow -- Tom Brady
Josh Allen -- John Elway
Justin Herbert -- Dan Marino
Baker Mayfield -- Brett Favre
Trevor Lawrence -- Ryan Tannehill
Lamar Jackson -- Randall Cunningham

2024-09-21 08:19:00 UTC

- reply

Allen is just really good too. And it is cutting into his total market share of the touches, but he’s still getting plenty.
Could be right about Maye, but it’s basically free experience at this point as the Pats aren’t winning anything.

2024-09-17 09:45:43 UTC

- reply

now Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp too.

2024-09-17 08:53:06 UTC

The injuries to prominent players early on are off the charts: now AJ Brown, Isiah Pacheco to miss multiple weeks. Pacheco half the season at least. What a minefield.

2024-09-16 15:19:09 UTC

- reply

Two bad pieces of info I got this preseason: Saints O-ine was terrible, would take offense down with it, and Canales would fix Carolina’s offense. (Luckily I only have some shares of Jonathan Brooks).

2024-09-16 14:56:37 UTC

From Week 2 Observations:
https://highlighter.com/a/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzq6awx0ytcf49c4eez2h5h94kaa5syk82xu6m4yx2qhvm0fs8yuhgqyw8wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtngd9nksmrfva58getj9e3k7mf0qqd9wet9dvknyt20vfek2unkv96xjmmwwvkhxmr6wanrql7xn5l
https://nostrcheck.me/media/134743ca8ad0203b3657c20a6869e64f160ce48ae6388dc1f5ca67f346019ee7/45db0298f8ed730988812fd445d11142bcb02200ec4d4bffb27751d977ddfe09.webp

2024-09-16 14:50:33 UTC

Major injury week: Isiah Pacheco (broken leg), AJ Brown (hamstring), Joe Mixon (ankle), Justin Jefferson (quad), Amon-Ra St. Brown (leg), Evan Engram (hamstring), Cooper Kupp (ankle).

2024-09-16 14:45:04 UTC

LOL, someone just won my 20-person “home” Survivor pool in Week 2! 9 Ravens backs, 1 Lions, 1 49ers this week. 8 Bengals last week.

2024-09-15 19:59:22 UTC

brutal drop for Nabers after a great game.

2024-09-15 19:12:01 UTC

- reply

Nabers is the real deal

2024-09-15 17:56:56 UTC

Jefferson’s cutback on the 97-yard TD was sick

2024-09-15 17:03:29 UTC

I watch the Giants so you don’t have to

2024-09-15 16:56:55 UTC

Week 2 Hell about to start

2024-09-13 19:34:02 UTC

- reply

I could see it. Just a big number on the road, but CAR is bad.

2024-09-11 13:49:13 UTC

https://nostrcheck.me/media/134743ca8ad0203b3657c20a6869e64f160ce48ae6388dc1f5ca67f346019ee7/cc9274079804129c7ccdf82758b456c0f11df98dcc15239fe2107be4dbe1897e.webp

2024-09-11 13:17:30 UTC

This is good gambling content
#note1w5d…qsc2

2024-09-10 16:45:44 UTC

- reply

oof. Is that as bad as being a Giants fan, losing Week 1 in your $1K Survivor pool you had to go to Vegas in person on an airplane to enter?

2024-09-10 16:38:00 UTC

Cooper Kupp goes in the top-five if we re-draft today. Marvin Harrison goes in the fifth round.

2024-09-10 16:36:55 UTC

That Christian McCaffrey had a month to get healthy before the season and couldn’t make it back bodes very badly. If five weeks isn’t enough, you think six magically will be? Why not 8-10 or a premature return and aggravation? Big risk now.

2024-09-08 20:54:14 UTC

I vowed to make my brain into a quantum computer and see into the future for Survivor this year. Unfortunately, I saw into a different branch of the multiverse, mistook it for this one. It happens.

2024-09-08 20:53:54 UTC

Really going to have a lot of equanimity this year. I say that every year, but I mean it. No reason to be voluntarily miserable. Give the complex system its respect.

2024-09-08 20:47:42 UTC

Mayfield runs like he *thinks* he’s Lamar Jackson, but just doesn’t have the juice.

2024-09-08 20:38:51 UTC

- reply

Giants fan too. Brutal. Dimes looks lost, and the line is still bad.

2024-09-08 20:38:31 UTC

- reply

1-3, with the late game pending. Long season, but you can’t afford too many poor weeks if you want to cash.

2024-09-08 20:38:04 UTC

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me too -- that's why I did it! That and to win.

2024-09-08 19:54:11 UTC

That it — Bengals lost. No shoulda/woulda/coulda. They had their chances, couldn't cash in. The story isn't worth $1000 (plus the expense and trouble to get there), but it's all I got.

2024-09-08 19:16:27 UTC

TJ Watt taking over the game in Atlanta.

2024-09-08 19:07:26 UTC

Time to bring in Drew Lock

2024-09-08 19:06:32 UTC

Cincy scores the TD — not dead yet.

2024-09-08 18:07:22 UTC

already not enjoying this. Have to shift my attitude

2024-09-08 18:02:48 UTC

urvivor hell officially begins -- Gesicki TD catch overturned. Then another TD, but fumble right before he gets across. FFS

2024-09-08 18:00:04 UTC

Daboll punting on 4th and 3 from midfield after the Vikings just drove 99 yards. WTF

2024-09-08 17:50:22 UTC

Burrow looks scared to run

2024-09-08 17:28:53 UTC

Bengals-Pats is killing me already, and it's only the first quarter

2024-09-08 17:27:25 UTC

Alec Pierce is a player

2024-09-08 17:19:40 UTC

Blake Grupe with the 57-yard FG. Used to be only Justin Tucker, now every Tom Dick and Harry can drill those

2024-09-08 17:13:03 UTC

Giants still can't block anybody.

2024-09-08 17:11:27 UTC

Circa Millions picks: Giants +1, Dolphins -3.5, Falcons -3.5, Cardinals +6.5 and Browns -2.

2024-09-08 17:11:07 UTC

Have the Giants defense everywhere -- already a sack and fumble.

2024-09-08 17:07:25 UTC

Burrow giving me a heart attack on the first play with a fumble.

2024-09-08 17:04:50 UTC

Looking forward to seeing Malik Nabers for the Giants.

2024-09-08 17:04:30 UTC

nervous about this Cincy game. All three survivor pools on Cincy, and I have Chase in three leagues -- would hate for him to have a soft tissue injury after the layoff.

2024-09-08 17:03:25 UTC

“Like taking” and no I didn’t actually take shrooms, that would be overkill.
#note1smp…mt8h

2024-09-08 16:58:06 UTC

Week 1 of NFL is liking take shrooms after a long hiatus. You're like -- "Oh right, I'm back."

2024-09-08 16:06:52 UTC

If Justin Fields plays well, Russell Wilson isn’t getting the job back.

2024-09-08 15:00:03 UTC

Tyreek Hill pulled over by police this morning, taken down to the pavement for some reason. Apparently will play.

2024-09-08 14:59:30 UTC

it's hell
#note1xx9…46ev

2024-09-08 12:54:45 UTC

If you drafted Ja’Marr Chase or Christian McCaffrey you’re already sweating it, and the season hasn’t started in earnest. If you draft Amon-Ra St. Brown or Bijan Robinson, you don’t have a care in the world.

2024-09-08 11:01:59 UTC

If Justin Fields has a good game, Russell Wilson is never getting the job back.

2024-09-08 10:56:00 UTC

Bengals better win today. I moved heaven and earth to get to Vegas this summer to plunk down $1000 for the Circa Sports I contest after flight cancelled, drove through 120+ degree heat, road closed in the desert, took six hours from Palm Springs. LFG.

2024-09-07 13:45:00 UTC

- reply

Probably so. But there's a chance he isn’t, probably about the same chance as Chase missing significant time.

2024-09-06 16:32:53 UTC

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I took Chase ahead of Jefferson at 7 on Sunday. Chase *could* sign any minute, while Jefferson will always have Sam Darnold throwing him the ball.
I play things aggressively though. All-in on Diggs at his price — first rounder the last two years. But CmC who I drafted *before* he got hurt is already a mistake IMO.

2024-09-06 16:22:52 UTC

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yeah you did. Got Chase in my other two leagues, so I have issues in those too.

2024-09-06 16:09:18 UTC

This is very bad for your 1.1. “Expects,” "see him progress!" Oof. Should have gone bigger on Jordan Mason in the league I have him (before the calf injury.)
https://nostrcheck.me/media/134743ca8ad0203b3657c20a6869e64f160ce48ae6388dc1f5ca67f346019ee7/cf865013e999f7cb1229148c783a646064cd52d5cf98b17dd5c2e773a30311f1.webp

2024-09-05 17:47:19 UTC

MVP: Kyler Murray
OPOY: Jonathan Taylor
DPOY: Kayvon Thibodeaux
OROY: Malik Nabers
DROY: No idea
NFC Champ: Packers
AFC Champ: Texans
Super Bowl Champ: Texans

2024-09-05 07:42:17 UTC

- reply

Saw that

2024-09-04 08:57:05 UTC

really starting to sweat the Ja’Marr Chase holdout as I have him in three of four leagues thus far.

2024-09-04 08:56:39 UTC

Appreciate the anon zap for 5K sats. Just so you know, I will post on this account all NFL season even if I get no zaps, but obviously better and more enjoyable if people see some value in it.

2024-08-13 10:58:21 UTC

Drew the No. 3 pick in tonight’s draft. Assuming McCaffrey and CeeDee are gone, who do you take?

2024-08-12 19:02:49 UTC

I don’t doubt it!
#note1975…l507

2024-08-09 22:51:39 UTC

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Used to be the Rule of 370 back when backs got that many carries. If you got 370, you were toast.
But the truth is most backs have short peaks, so anyone getting 370 was probably on the way down anyway. IOW, you don’t get a huge workload unless you’re at peak, and if a peak is only 2-3 years.
But McCaffrey is top-5 all time, many of his touches are receptions which are less taxing (fewer big bodies to tackle you outside the tackles) and those touches were spread out over 20 games instead of 17.
Plus the Niners run block so well, he’s often at the second or third level when he gets tackled.
Still high risk, but also highest reward.