Seanz

That's not how heat tiles work. Perfectly understandable that there's no steam. 3.6 gs is a cake walk. Especially for trained pilots. There were a lot of planes doing orbits around the splash zone... Because you know splash zone. This isn't even a good conspiracy theory. It's not even challenging to debunk. Try harder.

2026-03-20 17:57:00 UTC

- reply

Everyone talking about him in the past tense is going to pay a serious price. Just putting it out there.

2026-03-20 16:01:58 UTC

Grampa tell me about the Chuck Norris meme wars of the 2020's...
Well gather around kids.
https://image.nostr.build/a4474a5acd5a7bd62cd0a1db0d6eabe9e5a73c77284ed47605219a9a78600e50.jpg

2026-03-17 22:47:15 UTC

- reply

This guy reads from a caaahrd!

2026-03-17 22:46:53 UTC

- reply

https://image.nostr.build/a07e4fea98d5b1d2a0e2767bcd8b905395bdc4d6bec1e974efc42befd841a214.jpg

2026-03-17 22:37:47 UTC

- reply

Here is ai's response to your post:
The core data points are mostly accurate, but the post leaves out crucial structural context that makes the "doomsday" scenario a bit more nuanced than a sudden, catastrophic crash.
Here is the fact-check on the specific claims:
1. "The private credit default rate just hit 9.2%."
Mostly True, but needs context. The 9.2% figure is real, but it doesn't represent the entire private credit market. It comes from Fitch Ratings, which reported that the default rate within its "Privately Monitored Ratings" (PMR) portfolio hit 9.2% in 2025, up from 8.1% in 2024. However, this specific portfolio skews heavily toward smaller, middle-market companies (often with under $25 million in earnings). When looking at the broader private credit market—including larger and healthier borrowers—the overall default rate sits closer to 5.8%. It is rising fast, but the 9.2% applies to the most vulnerable slice of the pie.
2. "That is higher than the peak default rate on bank loans during the 2008 financial crisis."
False / Misleading.
While 9.2% is an alarmingly high number, it does not surpass the worst of the 2008–2009 Great Financial Crisis (GFC). During the GFC, the U.S. speculative-grade (junk bond) default rate peaked at over 14%, and default rates on broadly syndicated bank loans hit around 10.8%. Commercial mortgage delinquencies also peaked at 10.7%. We are in the danger zone, but we haven't officially eclipsed 2008 peak levels yet.
3. "The $1.8 trillion size and the 18-to-1 liquidity mismatch."
True.
The private credit market is universally estimated to be between $1.6 trillion and $2.0 trillion right now. And yes, the secondary market for private credit is incredibly thin—estimates put secondary trading volume at anywhere from just $2 billion to around $15 billion annually. The illiquidity premium is the main reason these funds exist.
4. "Dodd-Frank, institutional yield-chasing, and floating rates."
True.
This is an entirely accurate summary of how we got here:
* Dodd-Frank: After 2008, regulators forced traditional banks to hold more capital and stop making highly leveraged, risky loans to mid-sized companies. "Shadow banks" (private credit funds) stepped into the void.
* Yield Chasing: Pension funds and endowments, starved for yield during the zero-interest-rate era of the 2010s, poured billions into private credit.
* Floating Rates: Private credit loans are almost entirely floating rate. When the Fed aggressively hiked interest rates, the debt service costs for these middle-market companies skyrocketed, eating their cash flows and driving the current wave of defaults.
5. "Losses are hidden in quarterly reports because there is no mark-to-market."
True.
Because these loans aren't publicly traded, there is no ticker symbol and no daily price discovery. Valuations are typically done internally by the funds themselves on a quarterly basis (often using models rather than actual market trades). This allows funds to smooth out volatility and delay realizing losses—a practice critics often call "extend and pretend."
6. "If a handful of large funds try to exit... there is no buyer on the other side."
Misleading.
This is the biggest flaw in the post's logic. It implies a "run on the bank" scenario where investors panic and demand their money back, forcing funds to sell illiquid assets at a massive loss.
In reality, the vast majority of private credit is held in closed-end funds. Institutional investors agree to lock up their money for 5 to 10 years. They literally cannot pull their money out on a whim. Even retail-focused private credit vehicles (like non-traded BDCs) have strict "gates" that limit redemptions to a tiny percentage of the fund per quarter. If a crisis hits, funds don't have to fire-sale assets; they just trap the investors' money until the loans mature or default.
The Bottom Line
The post is pointing at a very real fire. The private credit market is massive, opaque, heavily stressed by high interest rates, and experiencing default rates not seen in over a decade. However, because the capital is locked up by design, a systemic, overnight collapse is unlikely. Instead, the risk is a slow, painful bleed where pension funds and insurers quietly write down billions in losses over the next few years.

2026-03-15 18:36:04 UTC

- reply

*plateau

2026-03-11 00:09:38 UTC

#nevent1q…w6f2

2026-03-09 15:02:58 UTC

- reply

Hard to think of any one that hasn't. Ancient or modern.

2026-02-26 02:08:39 UTC

#nevent1q…ff6a

2026-02-22 14:57:52 UTC

- reply

https://image.nostr.build/b2b44231e602a613da05c29f6447e7040da8e3c9d217120959dee534fbf315e8.gif

2026-02-22 14:55:28 UTC

- reply

https://image.nostr.build/586da35df39761c4ce9995faa07a2306985b552506b647e99be5e0454d8726dd.gif

2026-02-22 02:49:47 UTC

Prepare please
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSmD2Zg_JKo

2026-02-19 03:45:20 UTC

- reply

I don't disagree. Vietnam, Afghanistan are all examples that support what you're saying. From that lense I agree.
From another lense, maine lobstermen have a stronger navy.
But yes. Your point is well taken.

2026-02-19 03:20:19 UTC

- reply

Even if they knew where every aircraft or ship was.

2026-02-19 03:19:36 UTC

- reply

I disagree that Iran is on a level military playing field with the United States.

2026-02-19 02:53:14 UTC

- reply

"potentially leveling the playing field"...

2026-02-19 02:52:57 UTC

- reply

"potentially leveling the playing field"...

2025-12-01 19:26:13 UTC

- reply

I think the real takeaway here is that EVERYTHING has become so politicized that no one knows who to trust.
Team Red: the vaccines definitely killed kids
Team Blue: that's an incomplete assessment and they're playing with the science to score political points.
Every rational adult: what the fuck guys? Please stop.

2025-11-19 01:51:47 UTC

- reply

Calm down bro

2025-10-18 00:15:02 UTC

#nevent1q…y6h0

2025-09-21 19:14:22 UTC

- reply

Continuously variable transmissions?
What about for trucks?
I had one in 2005 and it broke.

2025-09-19 23:41:06 UTC

- reply

I just looked it up. The platforms foot the bill. Well that's good. At least the tyrannical censorship is free.

2025-09-19 23:38:48 UTC

Must verify age to use Wikipedia hahahaha. Because you may accidentally find objectionable or dangerous content??
Does anyone know if these poor souls in Europe have to pay for this age verification?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjr11qqvvwlo

2025-09-15 22:09:11 UTC

- reply

Yes! I want my ai to read my screen! Is there a way it can also take screenshots every few seconds so that way it can have complete understanding of everything I'm doing? Maybe also combine that with my location? And a list of all the people I know and communicate with? Also my phone should have this capability. So it can help me with my messages before that pesky end to end encryption kicks in.

2025-09-15 01:57:13 UTC

- reply

Music is a whole bunch of different frequencies. I don't understand this. Please explain.

2025-03-30 18:20:48 UTC

- reply

You may have lost it friend. But if you're ok with it. That's all that matters. Have you ever looked at the moon through your own telescope? I have. I recommend it. It's beautiful. And I don't think your fist instinct will be " that's a reflection". Try it for yourself.

2025-03-30 15:34:06 UTC

- reply

For some reason the globe thing is a trigger. Who knows.

2025-03-30 15:02:21 UTC

- reply

The best part is you can do this yourself. Today.

2025-03-30 15:01:42 UTC

Greeks with sticks. Smarter than a lot of us with cell phones.
https://youtube.com/shorts/HzEQTYutHU0

2025-03-30 15:00:04 UTC

- reply

https://youtube.com/shorts/HzEQTYutHU0

2025-03-27 00:45:58 UTC

- reply

Yea. But also you have YouTube. And if that's some of the evidence people are using to prove this theory it says a whole lot.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04Xa26YOfcw

2025-03-26 21:00:33 UTC

- reply

The plane dipping it's nose one is hilarious. That's uh... Not how planes fly. And nose up or down doesn't mean climb or descend. Among many other things.

2025-03-26 20:57:23 UTC

- reply

Two friends, two sticks, a sunny day and a cell phone. That's all you need to prove the Earth's shape and estimate within about 10 percent it's circumference.

2025-03-25 10:35:19 UTC

- reply

Ooooooweeeee

2025-03-22 19:02:42 UTC

- reply

Ash makes pretty good firewood. It's all I've burned for 6 years since the ash borer came through here.

2025-03-19 10:47:19 UTC

- reply

Smoking gun right there ,🙄

2025-03-09 23:28:18 UTC

Whose doing all the BTC selling?

2025-03-06 21:15:23 UTC

- reply

Help me understand why blacklisting an address... Especially an xmr address matters?
Honest question.
#nevent1q…uv0k

2025-03-05 02:07:20 UTC

- reply

I do.

2025-03-05 01:55:03 UTC

- reply

I find it hard to believe Ben Franklin used the phrase "bad guy"

2025-03-04 16:52:54 UTC

- reply

Hm. Yea, I mean if you have to buy all new hardware it might not be worth it to you. I bought a used server (10 years old) on ebay and I loaded truenas onto that. But that may not work for you.

2025-03-04 16:49:18 UTC

- reply

Do you have an old computer you can use and attach disks to?

2025-03-02 22:24:15 UTC

- reply

Hyperfocused on Monero eh?

2025-03-02 16:29:26 UTC

- reply

It reminds me of any new thing that could take multiple paths.
Beta - VHS ,AC -DC, etc.
There's debate, contention, trial and error, sometimes government intervention, powerful influencers with a lot of stake.
Sometimes one wins. Other times we realize each has there use.
I guess we will see.

2025-03-02 16:23:15 UTC

- reply

What did he say

2025-03-02 02:32:37 UTC

- reply

What if... Hear me out... You held Bitcoin, Monero, both or neither!? And you didn't get upset if people didn't agree with you...
This argument is so unnecessarily heated. But please carry on.
https://image.nostr.build/b31ff884d73d05a9d635482a535f88e7d351adb419fcc38572dddb6dd010bdec.gif

2025-03-01 01:31:34 UTC

- reply

#stopcensoring
There, I fixed it.

2025-03-01 01:25:46 UTC

- reply

This is the way.

2025-02-25 23:46:02 UTC

- reply

Yes. Running a node. Have had several people fly over in commercial flights make contact. Was not expecting that.

2025-02-25 11:36:40 UTC

- reply

You can have multiple ports per vlan. I don't used managed switches so I configure vlans in the unifi controller on the access points. For example I will tag the guest network as a separate vlan. Then I control all the routing with firewall rules on pfsense.

2025-02-25 02:07:45 UTC

- reply

How does esim cut out the cell provider?

2025-02-25 00:36:46 UTC

- reply

Unifi and pfsense is what I use as well. I found an awesome deal on Amazon for some 2.5 gb poe switches. For like $80. That, a few access unifi access points and a pfsense router and it can do most things an enterprise network can do.

2025-02-25 00:34:02 UTC

- reply

I had a Synology about 5 years ago before truenas. It was fine. The main problem I had with it was the price for the quality of hardware. You could build a FAR better device for MUCH cheaper and load truenas onto it. Yes you have to figure a lot out yourself. And the support you have is forums. But people in the truenas forums are very helpful.
There are a ton of apps already ported over to truenas. Plex and unifi controller to name a few. Also immich for photos. And nextcloud if you're into that.
The one thing I found that Synology does much better is surveillance cameras.

2025-02-24 23:52:04 UTC

- reply

His pfsense videos are good. Also unifi and truenas. He has a lot of other useful ones but I have those systems so I can speak to those specifically.

2025-02-24 23:48:05 UTC

- reply

All the safety

2025-02-24 23:47:34 UTC

- reply

Yes. Buy a refurbished pixel 7a and you're well on your way. Flashing grapheneos is easy.

2025-02-24 23:46:31 UTC

- reply

Not on my phone. I own my phone.

2025-02-24 02:04:01 UTC

- reply

Amazon has a million employees. What mark have you left on this world?
People who complain about billionaires not paying taxes dont understand anything.
Do you think that Elon musk has 250,000,000,000 in his checking account?
What do you think would happen if you made Jeff bezos pay 50% in taxes?
You think he'd write a check? Do you know what would happen to one of the worlds biggest employers if that happened?
You should be complaining about the federal reserve, fake money and term limits. Not billionaires.
Complaining about not having enough monopoly money is fucking insane.

2025-02-24 01:56:40 UTC

- reply

Your ideas have failed throughout history. I won't even mention the toll of human suffering.
Insufferable doctrine of nonagession and self ownership?
Wow. Yes. Take that shit back to the kitchen. I'm here for some social engineering! Because I'm too stupid to realize that's what got us in this shit to begin with.
Wake the fuck up.

2025-02-24 01:52:29 UTC

- reply

Boo liberty!! Cry about it commie. Blue sky is calling for you. Bye.

2025-02-24 01:51:30 UTC

- reply

Jesus Christ I had to search the fucking picture to see what you were even talking about. You can't have your cake and eat it too. Either the nazi trump loving idiots are retarded or they are amazing interpreters of symbolism and asthetics. Not both. This is retarded. Do you really stare at shapes that much? It trivializes actual anti fascist arguements. Are you 12? Grow up.

2025-02-24 01:46:29 UTC

- reply

Who cares. You think these pollsters are honest?
The question is- are the actions of the administration moral?
Are they necessary?
Will they help restore the republic?
I'm not even saying the answer to all of those is yes. But they are the questions.
Fuck these pollsters. It should be obvious to ANYONE WITH A FUCKING PULSE THAT THEY ARE PART OF THE SYSTEM OF MANIPULATION. FUCK YOUR GALLOP POLL.
THE ORIGINAL FUCKING PSYOP AND WE QUOTE IT AS IF IT WINS US AN ARGUMENT.
RETARD.

2025-02-24 01:33:42 UTC

- reply

That literally made me yawn. These people are flailing about trying to get traction.

2025-02-23 21:34:52 UTC

- reply

Yes. You can. I'd recommend doing this over a VPN to your remote location. It is actually pretty easy to set up. Tom from Lawrence systems has a video on it. I linked it below. Tom will be your go to. He has a ton of Truenas help videos.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIj0iHtZvOg

2025-02-22 22:22:25 UTC

- reply

I currently use seed vault to backup the phone. For cloud storage I use proton and I backup my photos to both proton and my self hosted immich server.
I don't have any suggestions for VoIP.
Seed vault will work with your NAS if you have it or even a USB stick.

2025-02-22 15:17:20 UTC

- reply

put this note in the wrong spot:
Would you say that for people who must keep using iCloud that it would be a decent compromise for security?
In addition to that do you know the current state of client-side scanning on iPhones? because that would make an app like Cryptomator irrelevant.

2025-02-22 15:16:21 UTC

- reply

Would you say that for people who must keep using iCloud that it would be a decent compromise for security?
In addition to that do you know the current state of client-side scanning on iPhones? because that would make an app like Cryptomator irrelevant.

2025-02-22 15:12:00 UTC

https://image.nostr.build/90fd08151bec9346c1f3b786ec476b0c95aa2cc94aa52e213d8cafe2f5c1310f.gif
I am proof that you can self host almost anything and still be an idiot.
I do most things through a gui. If I have to use command line I copy and paste like a cheating middle school student. If I can't copy and paste watching me work the command line is like watching a 4 year old learn to read.
BUT YOU CAN DO IT!
I use #truenas on which I self host
My photos #immich
All my backsups truenas
I run my own network using #pfsense
I host my own wireless controller
BTC node
Xmr miner
Nostr relay
Home security
Home video surveillance
I run #grapheneos
I don't use Google for cloud stuff I must have a use #proton
You CAN DO THIS TOO!

2025-02-22 15:00:06 UTC

- reply

Is Cryptomator a viable option for iphone users?

2025-02-22 14:58:09 UTC

- reply

I have have a lot of experience as a USER of graphene if anyone has questions. However I have very little knowledge of iphones.

2025-02-22 02:40:14 UTC

- reply

Idk but his pool's name is China.

2025-02-21 21:15:10 UTC

- reply

Why. I don't get it. In light of Elon's gaff, this has to be intentional.

2025-02-21 20:11:29 UTC

- reply

The Earth is also a sphere.

2025-02-21 20:05:34 UTC

- reply

Cloud seeding is real. Chem trails is nonsense.

2025-02-20 17:18:22 UTC

- reply

Yes of course. The conditions must be correctly set (which is a whole other philosophical discussion). And yes the universe is on a course towards total entropy. Yet, there are still highly complex self organizing systems that occur in the meantime during our long march towards the heat death of the universe! Is that what you wanted to hear your lousy pessimists!? Haha. I'm only kidding of course. Cheers.

2025-02-20 01:41:56 UTC

- reply

I can't really respond to that.

2025-02-20 01:28:13 UTC

I dont understand the hostility towards Monero

2025-02-20 00:10:59 UTC

- reply

Cmonnnnnn...

2025-02-20 00:10:10 UTC

- reply

Cmon...

2025-02-20 00:06:28 UTC

Block 884517 is stuck in the pipe lol

2025-02-19 21:46:32 UTC

- reply

oh boy...

2025-02-19 19:20:44 UTC

- reply

People gonna people

2025-02-19 19:19:37 UTC

- reply

Forked 🤯
https://image.nostr.build/a52f20709eb00060d090ad1896895b607e194c047751c16b7ff56a4005630725.jpg
Not me Sir, nope🫣!

2025-02-19 16:46:28 UTC

- reply

You could send a final email saying you've "moved on to other things" and then never be heard from again 😉 IYKYK

2025-02-19 16:38:03 UTC

- reply

You could fake your own death

2025-02-19 16:28:23 UTC

- reply

My guess is it is similar to the way solar systems organize themselves so that all the planets are going the same direction. There was a slightly preferred direction in the beginning and the planets that were going the wrong way got eliminated and reintegrated into the preferred direction.
Spontaneous order whispers something. I just am too much a chimp to understand.

2025-02-19 16:23:47 UTC

- reply

It's funny. I was thinking how could anyone be both a physicist and a communist/socialist/ whatever. It just seems obvious to me that the they are incompatible both in terms of money/energy... General logic.
The universe knows there's no such thing as a free lunch. Why do people put knowledge like that in a box and not see the thread that is woven into reality? Idk. These are just my thoughts. I'm just a chimp with a meat computer.

2025-02-19 16:15:41 UTC

Everyone: "We need regulation! Things just don't happen on their own. We need ORDER. We need protection from chaos! YOU CANT ORGANIZE SYSTEMS WITHOUT CONTROL!!!!"
Metronomes: "Hold my beer."
https://video.nostr.build/6dc3aacf026e43eff8a5ca0dbfa1cb7461c08001688314ad954e8197cbeeb122.mp4

2025-02-18 20:51:13 UTC

- reply

I'll check it out right now I run my BTC node and nostr relay in the same start9 box I made out of a thin client optiplex. Simple enough for a dummy like me.

2025-02-18 19:42:23 UTC

- reply

I guess it's personal since I'm the only one to use it. I'd run a full relay but honestly I don't know the implications of "c" p content nor do I know how to protect against it.

2025-02-18 18:51:06 UTC

- reply

What is private vs personal?

2025-02-18 18:50:19 UTC

- reply

Haha. It's private though 😔. But I'm working on it.

2025-02-18 18:46:44 UTC

- reply

Running both 🫣😬

2025-02-18 18:27:46 UTC

- reply

🙏🏻 hopefully. Fight them.

2025-02-18 18:21:14 UTC

- reply

Europe is lost
#nevent1q…2d5s