therationalbit
Steve Holden-Corbett

Husband. Dog dad. Data-driven strategist. Writer of The Rational Bit, building a community where anyone can learn about Bitcoin without criticism or judgement.

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steve@therationalbit.com

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npub18ctzvut2xwc8e4mva44wzha6zqygek3wt0ns459hurev04lzuulq7trezd

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Last Notes

2026-02-21 21:19:28 UTC

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While macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical tensions, and regulatory clarity remain uncertain, the Bitcoin network keeps strengthening.
This week:
- Mining difficulty +15% (largest jump since 2021)
- BIP 360 co-authors discuss 7-year quantum defense roadmap
- Lightning Network crosses $1.17B in monthly volume
- Arizona advances new Bitcoin reserve bill
This week’s newsletter breaks it down.
https://primal.net/e/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzq0skyeck5vas0ntkemt2u90m5yqg3ndzukl8ptgt0c8jclt79ee7qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnyv9kh2uewd9hj7qg3waehxw309ahx7um5wgh8w6twv5hsq2t5dpjj6unpw35k7mnpdskky6t594mk2ettd3uj6ttxv438yatpwfuj6v3395erqv3krsjsgj
#bitcoin #bitcoinpolicy #nostr #finance #macro

2026-02-15 20:30:48 UTC

Are price predictions a trap?
We often treat forecasts as “news,” but they usually say more about the observer than the asset.
We can build models and play the guessing game, but that doesn’t change the protocol.
In this week’s comic, Gary is refreshing the forecasts while Ben is enjoying his coffee.
https://blossom.primal.net/8f7bb0e43db6c1b0605bb42a421b0184a58b961775031ba772f60f6a2e46afad.png
#Bitcoin #Nostr #ValueForValue #TheRationalBit

2026-02-15 20:12:30 UTC

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While the world continues to focus on price, there is momentum moving Bitcoin forward—from legislation to protocol protections against the quantum threat.
Read more:
https://primal.net/e/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzq0skyeck5vas0ntkemt2u90m5yqg3ndzukl8ptgt0c8jclt79ee7qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnyv9kh2uewd9hj7qg3waehxw309ahx7um5wgh8w6twv5hsq2t5dpjj6unpw35k7mnpdskky6t594mk2ettd3uj6ttxv438yatpwfuj6vfn95erqv3kmeqmkn
#bitcoin #bitcoinpolicy #nostr #finance #macro

2026-02-09 00:28:56 UTC

Do we let our emotions get the best of us?
The market is often a reflection of human psychology, but price volatility is too often treated as a flaw in the network. In reality, the market’s mood swings have no impact on the security or function of the Bitcoin protocol.
The blocks just keep coming.
This week's Sunday comic 👇
https://blossom.primal.net/83da5538fd9a1b01ba7ec859ccba90dbef2d036fc98e9ff00b1e64fcf5a2ae74.png
#Bitcoin #Nostr #ValueForValue #TheRationalBit

2026-02-07 22:09:32 UTC

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Bitcoin’s price, while the most public gauge of its “success” or “failure,” is only one indicator.
Unfortunately, it’s the only indicator that mainstream media focuses on. If we zoom out, we can see the strength of the network. In fact, just this week—in the midst of Bitcoin’s price decline—States continued debating Reserve legislation and a $1 million payment was sent through Lightning in under one second.
Read the full newsletter:
https://primal.net/e/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzq0skyeck5vas0ntkemt2u90m5yqg3ndzukl8ptgt0c8jclt79ee7qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnyv9kh2uewd9hj7qg3waehxw309ahx7um5wgh8w6twv5hsq2r5dpjj6unpw35k7mnpdskky6t594mk2ettd3uj6ttxv438yatpwfuj6d3dxgcryds5hyjea
#bitcoin #bitcoinpolicy #nostr #finance #macro

2026-02-01 15:30:04 UTC

Is Bitcoin doomed by quantum computers?
Most people see "Quantum" and immediately jump to the worst conclusions, imagining a world where the blockchain just disappears.
The reality? This isn't a doomsday event. It’s a technical hurdle, and we've cleared these before. Just as we patched the world's systems in 1999 for Y2K, Bitcoin is built to migrate to stronger cryptography whenever the threat becomes real.
Check out this week's Sunday comic 👇
https://blossom.primal.net/b21a82b667bdc4032effda6baea62f53f9a045916c336eab88c7c450b941f68e.png
#Bitcoin #Nostr #ValueForValue #TheRationalBit #BitcoinMyths #FinancialLiteracy

2026-01-30 22:40:30 UTC

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The policy backdrop just changed.
While the Senate argues over details, the executive branch just signaled a new direction for the Fed. The system is updating faster than the laws can keep up.
• New Fed Chair nominee reshapes the macro conversation
• Washington is split on market structure
• The Bitcoin Reserve idea spreads to new states
• Corporate accumulation continues
Read the full breakdown:
https://primal.net/e/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzq0skyeck5vas0ntkemt2u90m5yqg3ndzukl8ptgt0c8jclt79ee7qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnyv9kh2uewd9hj7qg3waehxw309ahx7um5wgh8w6twv5hsq2t5dpjj6unpw35k7mnpdskky6t594mk2ettd3uj6tt2v9h82ctj0yknxvpdxgcryd3dly55x0
#bitcoin #federalreserve #bitcoinpolicy #marketstructure #nostr #finance #macro

2026-01-25 17:30:10 UTC

Is Bitcoin actually backed by anything?
Most people don't think so, until they realize that the intrinsic value of the paper in their wallet is just a social consensus we’ve all agreed to follow.
It’s easy to dismiss Bitcoin as just code, but the reality is that it’s simply a human agreement made public and enforceable.
Check out this week's Sunday comic 👇
https://blossom.primal.net/fb5d06044dba1c5871ea9b514beee185dec7df08d64dbd10e4be5ef7acf2d183.png
#Bitcoin #Nostr #ValueForValue #TheRationalBit #BitcoinMyths #FinancialLiteracy

2026-01-24 20:16:01 UTC

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Bitcoin adoption isn't a single moment. It's the old system being forced to update, piece by piece.
This week was about systems reacting to pressure.
Washington tried to move a market structure bill forward and ran into resistance. Meanwhile, the reserve idea kept spreading across U.S. states. And Nasdaq moved to make Bitcoin ETF options less artificially cramped.
Read the full breakdown:
https://primal.net/e/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzq0skyeck5vas0ntkemt2u90m5yqg3ndzukl8ptgt0c8jclt79ee7qq5hg6r994exzarfdahxzmpdvf5hgtthv4jkkmre95kk5ctww4shy7fdxgej6v3sxgmz6ruccmd
#bitcoin #bitcoinadoption #bitcoinpolicy #marketstructure #nostr #finance

2026-01-18 16:50:13 UTC

Is Bitcoin actually "anonymous"?
Most people think so, until they realize the blockchain is a permanent, public record that anyone in the world can see.
It’s easy to equate digital money with "digital crime," but the reality is that the most untraceable money is actually the green paper we’ve been using all along.
Check out this week's Sunday comic 👇
https://blossom.primal.net/b1b0fca1c7c4a88a8ca8e263a751016c2b82a0ff20c4eebefd15b3978bfecf74.png
#Bitcoin #Nostr #ValueForValue #TheRationalBit #BitcoinMyths #FinancialLiteracy

2026-01-17 02:37:35 UTC

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What matters more for adoption: laws, liquidity, or hardware?
This week we got all three:
- BRCA introduced, market-structure markup delayed
- South Korea reopens corporate access
- CES shows “Bitcoin heat”
Read more:
https://primal.net/e/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzq0skyeck5vas0ntkemt2u90m5yqg3ndzukl8ptgt0c8jclt79ee7qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnyv9kh2uewd9hj7qg3waehxw309ahx7um5wgh8w6twv5hsq2r5dpjj6unpw35k7mnpdskky6t594mk2ettd3uj6tt2v9h82ctj0yknzd3dxgcrydsf2602x
#bitcoin #bitcoinadoption #bitcoinpolicy #marketstructure #nostr #finance #mining #energy

2026-01-13 03:08:43 UTC

If we want a low-time-preference society, we need the tools to build it. But you can't build tools when the act of writing code breaks the law.
Forcing coders to follow the same rules as banks threatens the foundation of open-source innovation.
The new Lummis-Wyden bill would protect the right for coders to innovate by ensuring that "intermediary" rules only apply to people who actually mediate transactions.
https://www.bitcoinsensus.com/news/regulations/lummis-wyden-file-bill-to-protect-bitcoin-coders-from-money-transmitter-rules
#FreeSpeech #Bitcoin #LummisWyden

2026-01-12 15:57:32 UTC

Why are we stuck in a cycle of instant gratification?
It’s often a matter of time preference. When the money supply increases, our purchasing power is diluted over time. This incentivizes us to spend before it loses value. It’s an endless cycle.
High time preference isn't a personality trait; it’s an understandable response to a currency that doesn’t hold its value.
How would our behavior change if we had a constant, fixed money supply?
#bitcoin #nostr #rationality #economics

2026-01-11 16:43:40 UTC

"Easy money makes you frantic. Harder money lets you breathe."
Why does one person panic over a 50% gain while another stays calm for a decade? It all comes down to Time Preference. One is trying to outrun inflation; the other is stacking sats and waiting.
Check out this week's Sunday comic from The Rational Bit. ⚡️
https://blossom.primal.net/a090ff1ccaf84b398fd16ca89890517e29f7fc41abfeada43645fac1a3b1b248.png
#Bitcoin #Economics #Nostr #ValueForValue

2026-01-10 18:26:29 UTC

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Will prediction markets fix the lag in housing data? Or is the market too nuanced for real-time indicators?
#RealEstate #PredictionsMarket #PriceDiscovery
#nevent1q…xva0

2026-01-10 18:20:57 UTC

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Appreciate the crosspost! I’ve been enjoying the discussion. If anyone here has thoughts on how this might play out for real-time price discovery, I'm all ears.

2026-01-09 15:58:02 UTC

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The 2026 Reserve Race is officially on.
While the legacy markets are distracted by short-term price levels, the real structural shift is happening in Florida, Texas, and D.C.
This week's edition of The Rational Bit Weekly covers:
- Florida's HB 1039 filing
- MSCI's DATCO decision for Strategy
- Why price is a lagging indicator of structural shifts
Read the full story here: https://primal.net/e/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzq0skyeck5vas0ntkemt2u90m5yqg3ndzukl8ptgt0c8jclt79ee7qqnhg6r994exzarfdahxzmpdvf5hgtthv4jkkmre95kk5ctww4shy7fd8yknyvpjxc5fn8vu
#Bitcoin #SovereignReserve #TheRationalBit #Nostr

2026-01-09 06:19:43 UTC

Bitcoin can be more than just an investment. By settling stablecoins on Bitcoin-linked layers, the ecosystem gains a level of reliability that other networks struggle to maintain during outages.
Read more: https://bitcoinnews.com/p/bitcoin-major-stablecoin-settlement-layer-2026
#Bitcoin #Stablecoins #L2 #TheRationalBit #BitVM #Stacks

2026-01-09 04:33:08 UTC

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I’m generally skeptical of the prediction market philosophy, but there is a gap in real-time housing data. Using these markets to replace lagging indicators like Case-Shiller with daily price discovery could be beneficial to the housing market, but the betting aspect is problematic.

2026-01-07 23:27:57 UTC

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That’s an interesting range. Even if large institutions were a significant percentage of owners, removing Blackstone might lower competition at the top, but smaller investors and individuals would likely fill that void as they still treat housing as a long-term store of wealth.

2026-01-07 23:18:07 UTC

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Have fun! I’ve found that learning about the network through hardware like the Bitaxe is both educational and fun (and addicting). I agree that hobbyist mining is vital for overall network resilience, and understand that the reality of today’s industrial-scale dominance means the mathematical probability of finding a solo block is effectively a lottery. However, it is a powerful way to participate in the network. Ultimately, running a small miner is less about the immediate payout and more about maintaining a sovereign, distributed system.

2026-01-07 05:02:59 UTC

Trust is lost in an instant but takes a lifetime to rebuild. New analysis from BPi shows that the demand for Bitcoin spikes whenever the odds of political interference with the Fed go up. What’s interesting is that trust doesn't easily return.
We rely on the Fed’s independence, but that is increasing challenged in an era of fiscal dominance.
Read more: https://www.btcpolicy.org/articles/bitcoin-may-protect-against-a-loss-of-federal-reserve-independence
#Bitcoin #FederalReserve

2026-01-07 03:17:36 UTC

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MSCI is essentially admitting that legacy definitions need to change. They need 'further research' to determine if a Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet makes you an operating company or an investment vehicle. MSCI was trying to use old labels for today's. It seems like the index is already learning that today’s market requires the ability to adapt, especially as more companies add Bitcoin to their balance sheets.

2026-01-06 04:24:37 UTC

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Thanks for putting so much thought into this work, Natalie. Relatable comparisons like yours are exactly what we need to bridge the gap for non-Bitcoiners. For example, the analogy of money dilution being like adding water to wine is perfect—it makes inflation feel personal. No one wants watery wine! Why should we accept watered down money?

2026-01-06 04:17:05 UTC

I remember those first few transfers. It felt like a high-stakes wire transfer... the stress of having the responsibility to get it right. Waiting for that first confirmation felt like a lifetime.
It takes some getting used to, but once you move to Lightning, that weight lifts and it feels much easier.
How did your first self-custody transfers feel?

2026-01-04 16:58:05 UTC

Many Bitcoin critics see its energy consumption as a waste, but it's actually the security budget.
In this week's comic, Gary is trying to "fix" Bitcoin by removing the energy. He calls it "Proof of Cardboard." But he finds that when you remove the energy from Bitcoin, what you're left with is a fragile box that can't protect your value from a stiff breeze.
#bitcoin #nostr #BenAndGary #SundayComics
https://blossom.primal.net/01ad39256add1c31ee80eab115e3406c927f8bb73f99b118515296c36309e09a.png

2026-01-04 03:29:21 UTC

I spent years as a data analyst thinking #Bitcoin was just a fad. I thought staying away was being rational.
Looking back, I was anything but rational.
I’m building The Rational Bit to provide the logic-driven, rational education I wish I’d had years ago.
What to expect here:
- The Rational Bitcoin Guide: The "Why" before the "How."
- Sunday Bitcoin Comics: Simplifying the network with Ben & Gary.
- The Rational Bit Weekly: Real-world utility & infrastructure deep dives.
- The Rational Bit Podcast: Coming soon!
I’d love to get this community’s feedback. If you value a rational approach to Bitcoin education, let's build together. ⚡️
👇 Subscribe for the deep dives:
https://therationalbit.substack.com/
#introductions #bitcoin #the-rational-bit #plebchain #nostr
https://image.nostr.build/7f20f4dd3d9a3189c20ad35aeb7d62f7e70fb34b5ad9dbfeabc6b398d129e6cb.jpg