pahueg
Pascal Hügli

Mentally retired, financially semi-retired, professionally: only just starting 🚀 Book author: in English&German: http://kryptobu.ch

Public Key

npub1qhx7lnggpv64f0wt5xyjj7h90qh5ewu35pspr66sj8alc4gvcfjqqn04l8

NIP-05 Address

pascal@primal.net

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsqtn00e5yqkd25hh96rzff0tjhst6vhwg6qcq3adgfr7lu25xvyeqpz4mhxue69uhk2er9dchxummnw3ezumrpdejqzrthwden5te0dehhxtnvdakqu8ncj9

Publishing to

Author Public Key

npub1qhx7lnggpv64f0wt5xyjj7h90qh5ewu35pspr66sj8alc4gvcfjqqn04l8

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Last Notes

2026-04-21 21:09:12 UTC

New LNMS newsletter article:
https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack.com/p/war-liquidity-and-the-bitcoin-bear
Most people are still baffled by the fact that equity markets are back to all-time highs!
Well, let me tell you something: War headlines are not the primary force driving them any longer.
We have moved on. Here's what you need to watch:
-How much of the oil shock feeds through to inflation?
-Will the Fed really look through it all? If so, real rates could tick lower
-The dollar could tick lower as well
-And the overall liquidity situation could stay supportive
This is what we think markets are pricing right now!
Does this mean Bitcoin will continue its run?
Most likely not. There's still too much supply overhang and resistance at key levels.
Instead of chasing the rally, watch these three bottom signals and these three possible ends to this bear (elaborated on in the article).
To connect all the dots, read our latest piece:
https://blossom.primal.net/7131dd459aa51144bf35d3ce5054c525eb2d654e1221d079c9bee66e087393a5.jpg

2025-10-20 18:26:08 UTC

Latest LNMS newsletter is out:
https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack.com/p/ending-qt-wont-do-much-and-why-almost
➡️Are bank reserves really scarce?
➡️Fascinating case study of BTC's real-time price changes to recent plumbing changes
➡️Why investors should pay attention to rumors around gov' shutdown ending and Nov 5 Supreme Court tariff decision
➡️Gold's rally as a structural change and how to really think about the gold–Bitcoin “catch-up” trade.
➡️Why the end of quantitative tightening (QT) won’t make any material difference
➡️A fresh look at inflation
https://blossom.primal.net/c83849ece5b89c7a508568d6b47fe87a7f34d5c068c737242fd06d82b2678bcc.jpg

2025-10-20 09:52:40 UTC

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I‘d love to use Nostr more often. However, I am looking for a content scheduling assistant tool that I can hook up with Nostr? Does this exist? Thx

2025-10-20 09:50:56 UTC

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Juraj, is there a free scheduling assistant that allows publishing to nostr directly?

2025-10-20 09:45:51 UTC

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Is there a post schedulinh assistant for nostr (for free)?

2025-10-17 20:03:11 UTC

Here's my talk with Infranomics:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOYOCreAJ7U&t=9s
Prepare for a bunch of interesting charts with this one:
-Understanding TIPS auctions and how it helps get a read on inflation
-The silent depression thesis
-Why the average person feels so left behind
-How government spending, financial assets and corporate profits are outperforming GDP
-The importance of adjusting the denominator!
https://blossom.primal.net/ab05636b20d264e2651733200470f48fc3ab48c274a4f43e27e7d7cdca0edeb5.mp4

2025-10-08 19:37:44 UTC

This was a true masterclass type talk for me with Johan Bergman
https://youtu.be/bBXWqERZkRI?si=Jciq60b9Jh32eF4T
We talk about:
-Bitcoin‘s evolvinh yield curve
-What Strategy‘s preferreds are and how the function
-How a proper credit rating on them opens up this market to trillions
-How you can use these preferreds in combination with your house
-How to think about BTCTC
-Why BTCTCs will need to put their BTC to work
-Why you need a strategic fiat reserve when on a Bitcoin Standard
-And much more!
Truly mind-blowing convo! Check it out now

2025-09-18 06:50:30 UTC

This is my conversation with Caleb Franzen.
https://youtu.be/bMESqFI6zlM?si=Y90L2n2tEKPr-g_m
We talk about:
-US rate cut is coming, but what type of rate cut?
-How to deal with rate cuts in the face of reacceralting inflation?
-„One cut and done“?
-How to not fade trending markets?
-An indicator nobody talks about
Enjoy!
https://blossom.primal.net/58d599fd691bd652e0182683f8e47ee099fdb077d08282773df02af16644c978.mp4

2025-08-28 16:40:37 UTC

New interview with Taylor Neville💥
We talk about:
-Why he‘s so bearish, he‘s bullish
-What the advent of Weimar America means for financial markets
-How to trade markets as an uber bull
-How Trump is centralizing the Fed & Treasury to decentralize the broader market
-Why this cannot be the Bitcoin top just yet!
https://youtu.be/ibymmxLPeYA?si=tji0fDAcEpjMn3Q_
https://blossom.primal.net/9eac17e7c7166e5d3e01926a671b81bf6c68f90a97b85498af7fcf8b5adaf6a9.mp4

2025-08-08 20:23:38 UTC

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Nice! Hope I get @nprofile…kpej on my podcast LNMS to discuss this topic. I feel like he could deliver a masterclass for my audience as well!

2025-08-08 17:59:41 UTC

Once a Bitcoin skeptic, now an advocate. @nprofile…zhvd is a climate tech investor who took a deep dive into Bitcoin... and came out bullish.
YT: https://youtu.be/g0NQnxK9KcE
In this episode, we unpack:
-Why Bitcoin Mining is key to the green energy revolution
-How disruptive tech always faces doubt — until it doesn't
-Why Bitcoin is a climate ally, not an enemy
-How Bitcoin is net benefical for climate endeavors
-Its growing social impact
-And the challenges still ahead
Don’t miss this one.

2025-07-17 04:22:47 UTC

Thank you @nprofile…tn6f for a great chat on @nprofile…z633
https://youtu.be/nx5WF6vlJ7Y?si=xZLchjb0SeYTaODw

2025-07-04 15:48:05 UTC

Ever wondered what Martin Luther has to say on #Bitcoin?
Check out his message to the populace of today!
And check out the Bitcoin Enlightenment: amazon.com/dp/B0F9W8Y283
https://blossom.primal.net/f6ba45c89686fec7a25a3225bd5459645e49a1b3a8a79517cf0ae2b624c92178.mov

2025-07-03 16:04:30 UTC

This is my convo with Will Clemente
YT: https://youtu.be/SYhFbS8uxo8
We talk about:
-Why the US is in full ponzi mode
-When will Musk return to Bitcoin
-Why pay attention to the alts market right now
-What crypto equities to look at
-What the life as a Crypto KOL is REALLY like
It‘s good to see you back in full force Will🔥

2025-06-26 20:49:05 UTC

Here's my most recent discussion with @nprofile…g28z
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3l_Lc_d9zo
We talk about:
-The core raison d'etre of central banks
-How fiat technology improved money
-How fiat technology actually enables war making
-Can Bitcoin really curtail government deficit spending (and war financing)?
-Treasury buybacks are NO money printing, but why they matter anyway
-Is MMT and CBDCs fiat’s endgame?

2025-06-12 16:18:07 UTC

This is my conversation with Eric Weiss on how he orange-pilled Michael Saylor.
YT: https://youtu.be/qkZS0BTd4VQ
This was fun discussion about Bitcoin, billionaire and HNWIs.
And yes, as irony would have it, Eric suddenly receive a call from @nprofile…ukjf

2025-06-04 20:02:18 UTC

Bitcoin about to put in a double top?
Since its all-time high of $111k, Bitcoin has corrected about 6% to $105k. After hovering at this level for several days, some investors are now concerned we could be seeing the formation of another double top, similar to 2021. Frankly, I expected Bitcoin to push higher after breaking its all-time high in May. The reason it hasn’t is mainly because the demand side looks weak.
For one, ETF inflows have stalled, even turning negative by nearly $1 billion in late May and early June. Strategy also appears to be struggling to attract fresh capital, having purchased only 705 BTC on June 2.
On-chain dynamics show that coins held for 3 to 5 years — amounts comparable to local tops in March and November 2024 — are being sold into the market. The inability to absorb these coins at all-time-high prices suggests demand is fading.
From a sentiment perspective, last week’s Bitcoin conference felt like a potential top signal; watching the livestream gave me the impression that the enthusiasm from Bitcoin Treasury companies might be at a peak level.
The upcoming Circle IPO is another example: targeting a fully diluted valuation of up to $7.2 billion, the upcoming IPO is said to be oversuscribed by 25x. If this doesn’t give you late-cycle vibes, I don‘t know what will.
Finally, leverage remains elevated, as seen in futures volume, signaling that many investors are still positioned for immediate upside. Although this has eased somewhat since the all-time high, it’s still not non-negligible.
So, where do we stand? A week ago, I speculated that BTC would go to $120k fairly fast. I remain cautiously bullish in the short term, particularly as long as we hold above the short-term holder cost basis at $97k. Should we fall below that level, market psychology could take a real hit and things would have to be seriously assessed.
To stay above it, we’ll need to see fresh demand step in. If we dip lower in the coming days, I’d expect the first meaningful demand and support zone to appear around $99k.
Thoughts?

2025-06-04 05:03:33 UTC

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Thanks sir! Hope you get to read it!

2025-06-03 16:45:41 UTC

We are truly honored that @nprofile…ggvh has read our new book ‘The Bitcoin Enlightenment’ and shared such a thoughtful and generous praise.
Thank you, Lyn. I think I speak in the name of the entire industry, when I say:
Your work is inspiring countless people in this space — ourselves included — and we’re deeply grateful to have you.
Get your copy of the book now:
https://academy.saifedean.com/product/the-bitcoin-enlightenment-hardcover
https://blossom.primal.net/850cfac17c0420a0522101df5c88e7bbcc096778357aa8d73dc25c18366c39fd.jpg

2025-03-27 17:57:11 UTC

#asknostr #nostrhelp @nprofile…n63k @nprofile…lnue
Hey guys
I‘d like to post long-form reads on nostr using highlighter. I run into the following problems:
I cannot create my highlighter because publishing the event always fail.
Can anyone help me🔥?
Thanks
https://m.primal.net/PvTp.jpg

2025-03-25 09:47:14 UTC

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What do you mean?

2025-03-24 22:18:18 UTC

Why is $97k the "magical number" in Bitcoinland for now.
It's got to do with Strategy's goal to qualify for the S&P 500.
To qualify for the S&P 500, a company must meet several criteria, including:
-Market Capitalization: At least ~$14.5 billion.
-Profitability: Positive GAAP earnings over the last four quarters (with the most recent quarter also being positive).
-Public Float: At least 10% of shares must be publicly available.
-Liquidity & Sector Classification: Sufficient trading volume and being in an eligible sector.
Srategy is meeting all of them, except for the profitability metric.
Why the FASB Rule Change Matters: Before Q1 2025, companies had to report Bitcoin under old accounting rules that only allowed for impairment losses (but not unrealized gains). The new FASB rules (effective in Q1 2025) allow fair value accounting, meaning unrealized BTC gains count towards GAAP earnings. This helps profitability, a key S&P 500 requirement.
So know. In light of some back-of-the-envelope calculation, we can state:
An end of quarter close (March 31, 2025) with BTC at ≈ $96.5K keeps pre-Q1 holdings profitable but barely offsets Q1 losses.
An end of quarter close with BTC at ≈ $97K ensures positive Q1 net income under FASB, increasing S&P 500 eligibility.
An end of quarter close with BTC > $100K creates a much stronger profitability case, reducing uncertainty.
So yes, $97K BTC is the real "safe" threshold right now. Should we move anywhere near this price level towards the end of March, things could become very interesting. Once the profitability threshold is met and eligibility for SPY inclusion increases, we should expect a lot of front-running (in MSTR) from market participants.
This situation is obviously highly reflexive.. Well, I guess, we are here and ready for it 😁🔥

2025-03-20 17:17:16 UTC

Trump’s chaotic tariffs get all the headlines, but the real story is deeper: major monetary and geoeconomic shifts are underway.
I broke it all down with @npub18wg…r2wn —what’s happening, why it matters, and what it means for the future.
This is a conversation I learnt a ton. And so will you!
Check it out👇🏻🔥
https://youtu.be/Sf-EsP4O2NE?si=ZsH7kpvbMYadqzmb
https://m.primal.net/PmnN.jpg

2025-03-07 18:42:59 UTC

Some thoughts on the SBR announcement
-> The U.S. officially labels Bitcoin a strategic asset. This is quite big, confirming Bitcoin’s significant geoeconomic and geopolitical role
-> Expect to see more 13F filings by sovereign wealth funds
-> Sovereign and supranational bodies (like IMF) will have a harder time justifying anti-bitcoin policies
-> The probability that individual states in the U.S. will put bitcoin on their balance sheets just increased
-> Should individual states own Bitcoin, the probability that the US congress agrees to something like the Lummis Bitcoin bill (buying up to 1 million BTC over 5 years) increases as well
However: Labelling Bitcoin as strategic does have its downsides though
-> The establishment of a SBR is a “careful what you wish for”-moment
-> High likelihood the US will approach Bitcoin the same way they approach oil, gold, or critical infrastructure, meaning they will seek control, influence, and risk management over its supply and stability
-> In times of severe crises, we could see government commandeer or nationalize bitcoin miners. Or assume legal authority to aggressively seize private BTC holdings out of national interest
-> With Bitcoin being deemed strategic, centralizing forces around supply, custody, mining and development will intensify (Bessent already called for bringing crypto on shore)
-> If you understand the thinking of nation states around financial rails, labeling Bitcoin as strategic does not solely mean the government will buy bitcoin but lead to “oh we should control this network”
->There’s the risk that the US gov will not want to leave further Bitcoin protocol development to chance. Imagine a scenario where an army of NIST engineers, backed by virtually unlimited funding, suddenly steps in to influence or direct its evolution.
Remember, both the Secretary of Treasury (Bessent) and Commerce (Lutnick) have held Bitcoin in the past and understand its significance.
What is widely missed but hidden in the EO document called “Presidential Actions” (not the Factsheet broadly shared), is: “The Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce SHALL develop strategies for acquiring additional Government BTC…”
So, the actual text of the EO directs them to develop strategies to buy Bitcoin. This is very bullish price if you ask me.
There are many budget neutral strategies for acquiring Bitcoin.
-> Use USD surplus in Exchange Stabiliation Fund (ESF), netting to $39B
-> Revalue gold holdings, netting to about $800B
-> Demand IMF to include BTC in SDR or sell SDR for BTC
-> Issuing Bitcoin Bonds (Bit Bonds) -> Best option IMO, will examine in a future LNMS episode
-> Sell holdings from strategic cheese reserve held in Missouri caves, netting to about $3B (btw, hope this is Swiss cheese the US gov is holding. Every other cheese is shitcoin cheese)
-> Use tariffs proceeds to buy Bitcoin
-> Use DOGE savings?
https://m.primal.net/PXOR.jpg

2025-03-04 17:28:40 UTC

This is an episode you don't want to miss.
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89-YRqE0r3I
I got to talk to @npub1qh5…eh9r from Checkonchain about Bitcoin's latest price performance, the risk of entering a bear market, the key price levels to watch and the true meaning of the 69,420 price target🤪
As always, a lot of real signal from the man himself
https://m.primal.net/PTjn.mov

2024-12-30 21:03:59 UTC

Another great chat I had with @npub1vq9…k2jp from @npub1zxs…2knw on all things self-custody and how you can make sure you will never lose access to your Bitcoin.
Highly recommended! Very high signal and practical advice.
YouTube: youtu.be/6BcvxE1G7iE
#Bitcoin #SelfCustody #21stCapital #MultiSignature #TaprootUpgrade #LegacyPlanning #RecoveryMechanisms #BitcoinInheritancePlanning #Miniscripts #Multisig #CollaborativeCustody #Lossproof #Antiloss @Sina_21st
https://m.primal.net/NLsN.png

2024-12-12 18:07:13 UTC

This is the best birthday gift I could give myself!
In my latest episode, I sit down with Andrew Hohns, a structured finance expert who’s bridging the gap between Bitcoin and traditional real estate loans.
We cover it all—don’t miss this one!
Check it out, and don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe! 🎉
YouTube: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2mMgMpaShQE
Thank to @npub1guh…6hjy for the initial connection!
#Bitcoin #assetbackedlending #inflation #investmentstrategies #structuredfinance #collateralvalue #borrowers #lenders #currencydebasement #fiat #corporateadoption #monetaryenergy #loanproducts #activism #financialsolutions
https://m.primal.net/MuJu.png

2024-12-05 17:32:30 UTC

Babe, next LNMS episode just dropped 🔥
I had an epic talk with Mauricio di Bartolomeo - the man with the best last name in Bitcoin!
We talked about how he discovered Bitcoin in Venezuela and went on to build one of the most successful borrowing & lending businesses in the space. Mauricio shared pro tips on how to best manage collateralized Bitcoin loans and much more.
You don‘t want to miss this one:
https://youtu.be/fGJlrNJ48Uk?si=k4ppQLeDgBWfXj4m
Don‘t forget to like, comment and subscribe🙏
#Venezuela #hyperinflation #authoritarianism #economic #freedom #Bitcoin #loans #cryptocurrency #financial #technology #lending #platforms #digital #assets #lending #collateral #risks #repayment #banks #cryptocurrency #market #borrowers #overcollateralizedloans #borrowingagainstbitcoin #bitcoinbanking #100k
https://m.primal.net/MoWI.jpg

2024-11-22 07:38:02 UTC

Just found the perfect sweater for no coiners once #Bitcoin hits $100k
https://m.primal.net/Mdrx.jpg

2024-11-21 21:02:49 UTC

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Where to update?

2024-11-19 17:40:05 UTC

H ere‘s my recent interview I did with @npub1guh…6hjy on @npub1sk7…jraw
Thank you Marty for making this possible.
One thing we talked about: Old-world institutions are being severly challenged. Be it
-centralization in money (Central Banking and Fiat High Priests)
-centralization in information (Legacy media)
Bitcoin and predicition markets are showing credibly that a market approach to either money or information aggregation is much more efficient and neutral
Have a listen here:
https://youtu.be/jVia6HweASw?si=u780gFjtW1kxUdNK

2024-11-15 12:12:05 UTC

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#asknostr

2024-11-14 21:26:21 UTC

May latest talk for LNMS is live
This time I talked to Richard Byworth exploring what MicroStrategy is really doing.
He did such a good job, explaining the intricacies in detail! Even I felt the need to re-listen the entire episode again to get all the gems and insights he shared.
Listen on YouTube:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0R9gq4zIlCg
Don‘t get to share, comment, like and subscribe! Thanks!
#crypto, #ETFs, #USelections, #Bitcoin, #regulation, #institutionaladoption, #strategicreserve, #marketstructure, #investment, #digitalassets #mstr #saylor #michaelsaylor #microstrategy #financialengineering #fiatattack #ATM #volatility #LNMS
https://m.primal.net/MDRk.png

2024-11-13 17:21:32 UTC

SOMETHING BIIIIIIGGGGGG JUST HAPPENED TODAY
This not only made my day, but my week and beyond!
Stay tuned
#Bitcoin #Mexico #RSP

2024-11-08 15:26:32 UTC

Here‘s my latest interview with cypherpunk @npub17u5…t4tp
We talk about Bitcoin, what power Bitcoin core developers hold, what to be weary of and how to think about the risk of quantum computing to Bitcoin and its holders.
Check out the interview below 👇🏻🔥
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3dcThsVwbU
And don‘t forget to like, comment and subscribe on YouTube 🙏💪🏻
#Bitcoin #Decentralization #Ossification #Governance #QuantumComputing #CoreDevelopers #InstitutionalInfluence #Cryptocurrency #SelfCustody #Blockchain

2024-11-02 10:46:54 UTC

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Yes, shows he doesn‘t care what others things so much, something I like;)

2024-11-01 21:14:22 UTC

Here‘s my recent episode with Nic Carter. Although some Bitcoiners call him a heretic, I still find his perspective quite unique and refreshing.
Check it out 👇🏻🤝🎧
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PSmGLKIfTf8
#crypto #Bitcoin #stablecoins #decentralization #financial #privacy #regulation #Satoshi #market #trends #economic #impact #stablecoins #Bitcoin #Layer #meme #coins #crypto #technology #freedom #technology #financial #systems #decentralized #finance #investment #digital #currency #sacredcows

2024-10-25 06:09:46 UTC

It is a dream coming true.
Just a few days ago, I had the chance to interview the brilliant @npub1a2c…w83a
We dove deep into topics like fiscal dominance, monetary debasement, and debt monetization—and, as always, Lyn broke it all down in a way that even my non-finance friends could easily follow.
We also explored liquidity, how this easing cycle stands apart from previous ones, and whether anything could actually "slow this train."
To top it off, Lyn dropped a sharp insight: If a decentralized spreadsheet is a threat to governments, it says more about the governments than the spreadsheet itself.
Check below for the entire video👇📺
https://youtu.be/dX25ZaWg5GY?si=0EUTRZLcJAntQBtQ
#LNMS #SignaloverNoise #FiscalDominance #MonetaryDebasement #Bitcoin #Investing #Inflation #DebtMonetization #EconomicTrends #AssetManagement #FinancialSystems #FederalReserve #TreasuryPurchases #Bitcoin #Liquidity #AssetPrices #CentralBanks #GovernmentPolicy #EasingCycle #InvestmentStrategies #MarketTrends

2024-10-18 05:52:29 UTC

With the US elections looming and Trump’s odds on Polymarket skyrocketing, my latest chat with @npub1s9z…nszc couldn’t be more timely.
We dive into:
-how the election impacts Bitcoin (and vice versa)
-why Joe thinks that a Kamla win could make Bitcoin's number go up even more than a Trump victory
-what a potential worst case scenario for Coinbase could look like in case the lose to regulators
-why the SEC is failing at its core mission of protecting investors.
Timestamps:
00:00 The Significance of Bitcoin in US Elections
03:05 Joe Carlasare: A Bitcoin Advocate's Journey
06:01 The Impact of US Elections on Bitcoin and Crypto
08:48 Fiscal Stimulus: The Key Driver for Bitcoin's Price
12:11 Regulatory Landscape: Bitcoin vs. Broader Crypto Space
17:57 The Future of Bitcoin Amidst Fiscal Spending
20:51 Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Economic Uncertainty
24:10 The Growing Acceptance of Bitcoin in Traditional Finance
29:14 Political Impacts on Digital Assets
32:02 Congressional Dysfunction and Crypto Legislation
34:25 Market Demand and Institutional Adoption
38:10 The Future of Bitcoin in Finance
40:03 Coinbase and SEC Challenges
46:10 The Complexity of Securities Law
51:18 Investor Protection and Regulatory Challenges
#Bitcoin #elections #fiscalstimulus #regulation #cryptocurrency #SEC #Coinbase #digitalassets #institutionalinvestors #market #trumptrade #polymarket #electionodds #harris #trump #maga #musk #signalovernoise #LNMS
https://youtu.be/CokjtPgaK-I

2024-10-16 10:40:27 UTC

𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐐𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐟 𝐎𝐮𝐫 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐝𝐞
Would you rather take a shrinking risk of holding something that might lose all real value, or face a growing risk of holding something that almost certainly will?
Let me explain:
On one hand, you have Bitcoin. It’s a revolutionary asset with a capped supply and an adoption curve that hasn’t peaked yet. Yes, there’s still risk—it’s a new technology. But according to the Lindy effect, the longer it sticks around, the less likely it is to fail.
On the other hand, you have government bonds. They form the bedrock of today’s financial system, and thanks to implicit (and increasingly explicit) government backing, their survival in nominal terms seems guaranteed. However, due to the mounting pressure of the debt spiral, the chance of these bonds going to zero in real terms—thanks to inflation and devaluation—is on the rise.
So, which risk would you rather run?
#Bitcoin #BTC #Governmentbonds #treasuries

2024-10-09 20:01:42 UTC

Everyone is talking about memecoins but me and my guest Spencer Hakimian are talking all things macro!
Here are out talking points:
-Israel-Iran and what it means for our portfolios?
-Where might oil be headed?
-How to think about the upcoming US elections from a macro perspective
-What‘s in store for stocks and Bitcoin in 2025?
-Why gold has been outperfoming lately
Watch out for the full episode to be published soon!
#macro #bitcoin #gold #geopolitics #btc #portfolio #war #israel #iran #oil #markets #USElections #investing #LessNoiseMoreSignal #LNMS #SignaloverNoise
https://m.primal.net/LQQC.mov

2024-10-09 17:05:16 UTC

People are asking why $62k has become the new $58k for Bitcoin, and why it’s not breaking higher despite being at the start of the rate-cutting cycle.
The answer lies in the current wave of market uncertainty. Let’s break it down. 🕵️🔎
First, we’ve got the looming US election, casting a shadow over the market like a modern-day Damocles’ sword. According to Polymarket, Trump currently holds a significant lead with a 6% margin. However, until the results are in, this uncertainty is keeping the market in a holding pattern.
Also, the market remains uncertain about the Fed's next interest rate move. Just 15 days ago, on September 24, there was nearly a 60% probability of a 50 bps rate cut. Now? That chance has plummeted to 0!
This dramatic shift highlights the level of uncertainty gripping the market, and uncertainty is always a market drag—Bitcoin included.
But here’s the kicker: November 5 brings the US elections, clearing up political uncertainty, and by November 7, we'll have more clarity on interest rates.
Early Nov will be interesting for sure!
#Bitcoin #USElections #InterestRates #50bsp
https://m.primal.net/LQGj.jpg

2024-10-09 10:06:35 UTC

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Yes. What arguments come to mind?

2024-10-07 11:25:44 UTC

𝐑𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐲 𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐰𝐡𝐲 𝐁𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐢𝐧 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐚 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐲
Having recently started working for a Bitcoin bank in Switzerland, I was introduced to the “privilege of having to” save through the traditional pension system. As a libertarian-minded, young Bitcoiner I do have my fair share of struggles with the traditional pension structure and I pretty much avoided it my entire life up until now.
After countless discussions with my parents and father-in-law about the flaws and unsustainability of the pension system, I felt compelled to delve deeper into understanding how it works.
Today, while I'm still skeptical and believe that young people like me should put the bulk of their savings elsewhere, I've come to realize the resilience of traditional pension systems.
In fact, I used to think pension systems are on the verge of collapse and that it would be wise to withdraw any savings sooner rather than later. However, I've realized that this risk isn't as imminent as I once believed. How come?
The answer lies in the fact that traditional pension systems are ultimately supported by their respective governments. When push comes to shove, our benevolent fiat overlords ensure that these pension funds remain solvent. A prime example of this occurred during the UK gilt crisis in late September 2022, which saw a sharp decline in UK treasury bond prices.
The intervention in the gilt market during that period was crucial in saving the British pension system from a potential crisis. Here's how it happened:
In years of low interest rates, UK pension funds leveraged their investments using Liability-Driven Investment (LDI) strategies. When bond prices dropped, these funds faced significant losses, triggering demands for additional collateral that many pension funds struggled to provide.
By stepping in to stabilize the UK gilt market, the Bank of England prevented a widespread collapse of LDI funds, averting a financial crisis that could have severely affected pensioners.
Given this outright government backstop for pension funds, why wouldn’t you want to be saving through this vehicle? I started this conversation by saying that I am still skeptical about pension funds and that I would put money elsewhere.
This is because in real-terms traditional pension systems are falling behind. Because of regulations, these funds have to be invested in government bonds. When governments, in coordination with their central banks, prop up treasury bonds to support pension funds, the resulting measures—no matter how complex and opaque to the average person—are likely to erode the purchasing power of those savings over time.
So, what’s the solution? It’s essential to look beyond pension funds. While stocks can be a viable option, I believe that Bitcoin offers the most promising investment opportunity.
In a world where government-backed collateral, primarily in the form of bonds, is continually devalued to sustain the pension system, Bitcoin represents a new form of market-based collateral with tremendous upside. I firmly believe that Bitcoin is well-positioned to become the ultimate market-based collateral of the future.
Although Bitcoin lacks government backing and regulatory support—similar to gold—its market size is poised to rival that of U.S. government bonds. Once that happens, its liquidity will compete with that of U.S. treasuries. Unlike gold, Bitcoin is entirely virtual, leading to lower custody costs, cheaper transportation, and easier verification. These advantages make Bitcoin a more efficient asset compared to gold, but it has not yet surpassed U.S. government bonds.
However, when considering Bitcoin's global accessibility, 24/7 liquidity, instant settlement, and uniform fungibility—especially when contrasted with the fragmented U.S. bond market, which includes securities with varying maturities—it's clear that Bitcoin has compelling advantages.
In conclusion, we can say that government-backed pension systems are the ultimate savings technology for boomers. They have served this generation well throughout their lives, and likely will continue to do so.
For millennials and younger generations, Bitcoin represents the next evolution in savings technology. By adopting it now, you stand to benefit disproportionately, just as previous generations have capitalized on their own era's ultimate savings vehicles.
#Bitcoin
#PensionFunds
#SavingsTechnology
#FinancialLiteracy
#RetirementPlanning
#Investing
#Cryptocurrency
#WealthManagement
#Libertarian
#FutureOfFinance
#InvestmentStrategy
#MillennialFinance
#FinancialIndependence
#EconomicFreedom
#DigitalAssets

2024-09-26 15:49:57 UTC

https://youtu.be/p2GtbX6RXrU?si=uqBBq2_swy9L1z22

2024-09-21 04:36:33 UTC

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝘁 𝗝𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸: "𝗧𝗿𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲? 𝗬𝗼𝘂’𝗿𝗲 𝗗𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗜𝘁 𝗔𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴!"
@npub1qh5…eh9r & @npub1qhx…04l8 dive into why understanding whether you're a trader, investor, or saver is crucial—and how knowing which "bucket" you fall into can shape your investment strategy.
We also break down the power of enhanced DCA and explain why following the "Sell and buy back later" crowd is a fool's errand. Plus, we discuss how Bitcoin investors can identify absolute bear market bottoms and local tops during bull runs using on-chain metrics!
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
02:58 Understanding Market Signals and Human Behavior
05:48 The Investor vs. Trader Mindset
09:01 Bitcoin as the World's Best Long-Term Conviction Asset
12:13 On-Chain Analysis: A New Perspective
15:00 Investing Frameworks for Bitcoin
17:53 The Power of Enhanced DCA
21:13 Market Cycles: Predicting Tops and Bottoms
24:00 The Future of Bitcoin Market Dynamics
Enjoy🤜🤟
https://youtu.be/p2GtbX6RXrU?si=oaj1zqpdvdR9HTXq
#Bitcoin #Investing #marketanalysis #onchain #trading #psychology #marketcycles, #dca #crypto #signalovernoise

2024-09-18 15:08:41 UTC

Who here agrees?
Found at Token2049
https://m.primal.net/Ktti.jpg

2024-09-18 11:12:38 UTC

Nice. Just met @npub1spd…q6j7 in Singapore and he helped me onboard my wife and her company‘s boss to #nostr 🔥🔥
Thanks sir, much appreciated🙏
https://m.primal.net/KtkA.jpg

2024-09-18 10:41:28 UTC

The dollar is done. There is nothing stopping this train.“
@npub1sn0…jdv9 just quoted @npub1a2c…w83a in his amazing speech at Token 2049
Lets gooo. We are winning!
https://m.primal.net/Ktid.jpg

2024-09-18 10:33:01 UTC

„The dollar is done. There is nothing stopping this train.“
@npub1sn0…jdv9 just quoted @npub19ta…7eyn in his amazing speech at Token 2049
Lets gooo. We are winning!
https://m.primal.net/Ktid.jpg

2024-09-13 06:53:20 UTC

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗶𝘁𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿: "𝗜 𝗥𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝗼𝗻 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗗𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗮𝗻 𝗨𝗽𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻"
@npub104x…pyta and @npub1qhx…04l8 talk about all things recession. Is a recession on the horizon? If so, what key indicators are flashing warning signs? Is the U.S. government, with its war-time deficit spending, distorting economic indicators? And most importantly—why stay bullish on Bitcoin in face of a recession?
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:11 André's Early Days in Bitcoin
14:45 Understanding the Current Economic Landscape
29:51 Recession Indicators and Their Implications
45:00 Bitcoin's Future: Catalysts and Predictions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhD_CkRjsqg
Enjoy🤜🤟
#Bitcoin #recession #economicindicators #cryptocurrency #investment, #macro #cryptomarket #monetarypolicy #lessnoisemoresignal #signalovernoise

2024-09-11 10:23:44 UTC

A recently had a post on how the US Treasury is influencing the longer-dated bond curve:
https://primal.net/e/note1sfptwc5qzah4tn5atrpqkht8466596hlv2allcf5zeak49gnt29q34qk6z
Here‘s some more insight on this topic:
Stephen Miran et al. call it: "Activist Treasury Issuance"
This podcast should be worth your time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-HembzMIvA

2024-09-08 18:00:27 UTC

Being a critic of anything is important. However, here are three things I found to be just wrong criticism:
„Who will build the roads?“
-> Statists falsely assume no one would build the roads
„Who will run the relays?“
-> No-coiners falsely believe that #nostr is not gonna work
„Who will buy the bonds?“
-> Fiat haters falsely think, the government bond market of Western sovereigns like the United Stated is about to collapse

2024-09-05 19:46:45 UTC

Have you heard about Travis Kling‘s theory „A Lack of Pretense That Any of This Shit Does Anything or Will Ever Do Anything" and „Financial Nihilism: The Zeitgeist of Young America".
In it he raises some great points about how monetary relativism caused by global central banks has been driving people to speculate on shitcoins!
I have been in "crypto" for the past 8 years as well. For me personally though, I don't feel like being pulled into the pervasive quiet quitting mentality he describes.
As a matter of fact, I never felt more excited about this space. However, this is mainly because of #Bitcoin! Being an open-minded person, trained as a financial journalist, I always had the ambition to study and understand the entire space.
This has always helped me not drift into the Bitcoin Maxi camp, for better I would argue. Nonetheless, I have always been a Bitcoin realist.
Today, my excitment is growing because Bitcoin is showing real world adoption. The Bitcoin ETFs have only been the start. The big US banks are coming, it's not if but when as Howard Lutnick has been pointing out in one of his latest X posts: https://x.com/howardlutnick/status/1831080474124681316?s=46&t=dsOG2YNLvX4R1JCEEpiQ2w
Also, there is a lot of interesting stuff happening around scaling Bitcoin with REAL layer-2 technologies. There is decentralized social media taking off in the form of #Nostr.
The financialization of Bitcoin is happening as we speak. I can see it at the very bank I am working for. However, this inevitable financialization mustn't be bad.
In fact, there are technology providers out there like @npub19yf…mc68 that will make sure the financing of Bitcoin will happen in a peer-to-peer, non-custodial, open, transparent way thanks to multi-signature and collaborative custody - an upgrade to the system.
I recently got to talk about these topics with @npub1797…ar68 and @npub1s5y…6q7z on a recent podcast. You can check the episode here: https://youtu.be/9LQ4AElWDMc?si=YNklO3uKLnCE4fcv
So, why am I telling you all this? I want to prove a point that „crypto“ can still be interesting, if you shift your focus and attention to Bitcoin!
Also, I feel like I have the responsibility to convey this message to all the laggards (boomers, etc.) that are now looking at crypto and want to invest in all sorts of projects. At the bank, I talk to a lot of them, on a regulary basis. Well, they are behind the curve and don't know yet that a lot of crypto enthusiasts have quietly given up on crypto...
As such, I feel like this message is very important and needs to be presented to older folks so they can be warned and their invested wealth potentially be protected!
So, to sum things up: I will keep on pushing. Also, I will be starting my own podcast very soon and I hope to provide content that is signal over noise.
#lessnoisemoresignal

2024-09-05 13:30:25 UTC

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Well, multisig cold storage custody is coming.
Generating a yield is coming with risk, you might not want this! Possibly better: conservatively borrow against your BTC stack and let BTC do the magic over a long time period.

2024-09-05 13:10:33 UTC

„Crypto“ is among the top 10 least attractive hobbies men can have according to women.
Ergo, crypto wealth might not help you to get girls after all.
Interestingly, reading is considered the most attractive trait men can have. True Bitcoiners , who have done their research have done a lot reading, or else they woule not be Bitcoiners.
Ergo, Bitcoin knowledge is attractive in the eyes of girls 👀?
Related: Even @npub15dq…lm5m says that he has never met a Bitcoin critic who had spent even 100 hours of studying #Bitcoin
Most importantly: Crypto is NOT Bitcoin
https://m.primal.net/KfUe.jpg

2024-09-05 11:09:48 UTC

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The same for me!

2024-09-04 17:58:18 UTC

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Thanks sir!

2024-09-04 15:25:44 UTC

It gives me great joy that I was recently invited by @npub1s5y…6q7z to his podcast.
Together with @npub1797…ar68, we talked about:
-Why peer-to-peer lending is so important in the Bitcoin context
-How Swiss banks like are so advanced when it comes to Bitcoin
-Why, stablecoins will most definitely be adopted by traditional banks
- And how banks should be thinking about tokenizing all sorts of assets.
As someone who has been in the Bitcoin space for about 8 years 🕰️ and knows how real Bitcoiners truly think, I want to take this knowledge and contribute to the bank’s understanding of Bitcoin and Bitcoiners! 💡🏦
Here's our talk: https://youtu.be/9LQ4AElWDMc?si=cAjJ2A6ydE2BUEYG
#Bitcoin #tokenization #digitalassets #peertopeer #lending #bitcoinbanks

2024-09-04 09:32:06 UTC

Hello world! 🌍
The Cantonal Bank of Zurich is now offering its clients the option to invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum. 🚀 This marks yet another major step forward for the Swiss banking industry. Earlier this year, the third-largest bank, Post Finance, also introduced its own crypto offering.
It seems like only a matter of time before the two largest banks (looking at you, UBS 👀) will need to follow suit!
When it comes to Bitcoin and digital assets, Swiss banks are far ahead of their US counterparts. 🇨🇭 In the US, regulatory hurdles still prevent banks from fully engaging with Bitcoin.
Offering custody for digital assets like Bitcoin involves significant costs due to the capital backing required (thanks to Basel III regulations 💰).
However, in Switzerland, thanks to changes in Swiss law and banking regulations, banks can separate digital assets from their balance sheets. This allows them to offer true custody accounts, ensuring that assets belong to the client. By law, these assets are fully segregated from the bank's estate during bankruptcy and are returned to the client. 🔐✅
At Archip Maerki Baumann, this is why we're able to offer a segregated wallet for each of our clients holding Bitcoin with us.
As I understand it, something similar is possible in Wyoming 🇺🇸, thanks to the efforts of @npub1uyz…8632 and others, but it's still rare in most of the United States.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #DigitalAssets #SwissBanking #FinancialInnovation
https://m.primal.net/Kdei.png

2024-09-03 16:56:17 UTC

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Good observation. I‘d assume that demand is not strong enough, which is why issuance has to be suppressed by scaling down long-dated issuance.

2024-09-03 16:42:59 UTC

Happy to share my talk „Pitching Bitcoin to Boomers“ that I was honored to give at Baltic Honeybadger conference organized by @npub1yul…ncdu @npub19yf…mc68 @npub1797…ar68 and all the team!
I was representing our bank Maerki Baumann as a Bitcoin investment manager. Yes, this is my official title😉
Thanks again for this opportunity!
https://youtu.be/tgQHBN2PtMo?t=18432
#Bitcoin #portfolio #assetmanagement
https://m.primal.net/KcXM.jpg

2024-09-03 05:15:50 UTC

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What the US Treasury department is doing is „active duration management“
By not issuing long-dated treauries as much, institutions like pension funds, etc. are starved from getting these long-dates securities. As they are mandated (and incentivized by their business model) to buy long-dates treasuries still, demand „outpaces“ supply, which drives up prices and yields down (there an inverse relation between price of bonds and their yield).
How to measure/estimate this?
One way to do this is to compare the 10 year treasury yield to the yield for bonds on the agency mortgage market. The latter is low-risk and got the backing of the US government ss well, so these bonds are almost like treasuries.
In bond speak however, they have longer duration and greater convexity, which is why, when you compare these you have to factor in these differences. You can do that by help of a calculation where you make these to comparable by filtering out convexity and duration and when you do this, you still get about a 100 basis point difference which indicates that this is by how much US treasuries are overvalued or their yield is suppressed.

2024-09-03 05:13:17 UTC

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Yes!

2024-09-03 04:52:07 UTC

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Yes, that‘s a good point

2024-08-31 21:51:16 UTC

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How can I run my own relay?

2024-08-31 15:29:14 UTC

Treasury bill, or short-term US debt paper, has historically ranged between 15% and 20%. In recent months, this percentage of T-bill of total US debt has broken above 20% and it might well be on it‘s way to 25% (or even higher).
As institutions like pension funds are starved from getting long-dates securities, other have been buying the short end. Who? Banks, credit providers as well as the infamous US stablecoiner provider Tether.
Why is this significant?
This is covet yield curve control or yield supression because it supresses the long-end of the curve.
As a matter of fact, the yield of long-dated treasuries should actually be higher, about 100 basis points by conservative estimates.
The question we need to ask is how will the US get investors back into long-dated treasuries?
-Bring down short-term policy rates (significantly) to make long-end debt more attractive.
-Push for a recession to create save haven demand for long-term treasuries (beat steepener). Rather improbable, no?
-Go new ways. For example, as @npub1s5y…6q7z has explained, what if the US Treasuries were to back long-dated bonds with a Bitcoin component. Could this be enticing enough for regular investors to buy into long-end Treasuries?

2024-08-31 11:56:08 UTC

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Good thing is, and that‘s whta my original post was about, that Brazilians are hands-on and pretty strong non-authority-believers which leads me to suspect that less people will comply when compared to other jurisdictions…

2024-08-31 10:47:40 UTC

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Well, what will happen then? Some people will follow orders, others (fewer) will not obey. Or what is your thought?

2024-08-31 10:10:30 UTC

When I lived in Brazil for almost a year, brazilians struck me as a very hands-on populace.
Now that X is banned in their country, I feel like many tech-savvy Brazilians will make it to #nostr
Bon dia cara🥳

2024-08-31 07:37:00 UTC

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How to create something like this?

2024-08-30 15:51:38 UTC

About to go live with @npub1s5y…6q7z and @npub1797…ar68 to talk about Bitcoin, pristine collateral, peer-to-perr lending, pitching Bitcoin to boomers and more.
Super Stoked!😎🏋️

2024-08-29 08:15:03 UTC

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Thanks. How can I securely transfer nsecs between clients? Alby? Any guide?

2024-08-29 07:50:54 UTC

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Add-on: maybe i have to be more precise: wallets that are not that of @npub12vk…pugg or any nostr-first client? Like „normal“ lightning wallets (maybe even non-custodial ones?

2024-08-29 07:48:27 UTC

I hear that #Nostr, in combination with #Bitcoin Lightning enables a sort of „international decentralized open-source Venmo“
So what wallet already is connected to Nostrs‘ public payment directory?
Would love to showcase to my students tomorrow.
Anyone? @npub1a2c…w83a

2024-08-29 07:26:45 UTC

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Where can I learn more about how this works in pratice?

2024-08-28 08:36:14 UTC

Not sure who I can give props to for creating this image.
However, I know exactly who to give props to for making non-inflatable money possible and making hodling worth my while!
#satoshi #nakamoto https://image.nostr.build/a7303aadc91b44da9c11d5be089ea02a6ee938bd0ef1b462fcb03d0ae78af798.jpg

2024-08-28 06:40:58 UTC

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Can you elaborate:)?

2024-08-28 05:06:48 UTC

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Great man! Thanks. Learning as I go.
I‘d love to learn more about the wallet context. I am currently using the wallet by @npub12vk…pugg. It‘s custodial I guess? I‘d love to connect my own, non-custodial one. Any good guide on how to best do this?

2024-08-28 04:55:26 UTC

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@npub1840…59sx thanks for the zap.
What are best practices in terma of zapping? Any thoughts from your side?

2024-08-28 04:53:18 UTC

Since I am new to #nostr, I’d love to learn:
-How to properly set up my nostr account? What are the tricks and tips?
-How can I choose me relays for the most stable connection? Is it the more relays the better?
-How do zaps work? How much sats is recommended to keep in one‘s Nostr wallet?
-I have set up a @npub12vk…pugg wallet, the one that‘s in-built. I guess that‘s custodial? How can I connect my own non-custodial lightning wallet? Does anyone wallet work? Probably not as I will need a “static” lightning address or LNURL, right?
-Any other learnings you guys can share?
Thanks🤝

2024-08-28 04:46:55 UTC

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And above all, I hodl

2024-08-28 04:37:19 UTC

Am I the first #banker to have joined #nostr?
If so, don‘t worry. I come in peace. And for tumhe record: I do understand Bitcoin, I do hold my own keys, I do run my own node!
And there will be more of us
#Bitcoin #BitcoinBanking

2024-08-27 16:59:45 UTC

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I feel the same way. Just coming back from #bh2024 and nostr seems like place you definitely want to be!

2024-08-27 16:23:58 UTC

I had an amazing time in Riga at #BH2024!
Huge thanks to @npub1797…ar68 and the team for giving me the opportunity to present on how we’re pitching Bitcoin to boomers at Maerki Baumann.
There's still a long way to go, but Bitcoin’s favorablr risk/return ratio will do the trick, and more money managers will start adding #BTC to their clients' portfolios. A 10% performance boost with just a 2% allocation to BTC will be hard to ignore!
A special shoutout to @npub1s5y…6q7z for the insightful conversations about how traditional banks that embrace Bitcoin will ultimately lead the pack. Again, there’s still plenty of work to do—like educating them on how Bitcoiners actually think (low-time preference, full custodial transparency, etc.) and showing that peer-to-peer lending is the future, instead of adding unnecessary risks by tranching collateral. https://image.nostr.build/0d2a2448cfc403623cbccb4dfa0912756989666801af99ef9ac2b41d7f7df635.jpg

2024-08-27 14:09:47 UTC

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Who to follow to get as much signal as possible?