Houston

Ex-TradFi trader. Master of crayons. 🖍️ In the game of trading crypto for more Bitcoin. 💸 Writing about what I observe, think and trade. 🔭

Public Key

npub1z9rvpkhlkfw2q6384rexysffvdtszqrst2fcrnwngsgwra4vtn8s9ljj33

NIP-05 Address

houston@nostrplebs.com

NIP-57 Address

houston@getalby.com

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nprofile1qqspz3kqmtlmyh9qdgn63unzgy5kx4cpqpc94yupehf5gy8p76k9encpr3mhxue69uhkummnw3ez6un9d3shjtn4de6x2argwghx6eg4me7e0

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nostr-relay.untethr.me

Author Public Key

npub1z9rvpkhlkfw2q6384rexysffvdtszqrst2fcrnwngsgwra4vtn8s9ljj33

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Last Notes

2024-08-05 18:34:04

As always, most market pundits and mainstream content creators missed the sell-off, leading their followers into the proverbial slaughterhouse.
Market Musings - Bear Market Update https://open.substack.com/pub/houstonwehaveaprob/p/market-musings-bear-market-update?r=2tki10&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

2023-10-24 14:54:16

Weekly seasonal $BTC data if you subscribe to such things.
#bitcoin
https://m.primal.net/HOWV.png

2023-10-24 14:45:13

How it started, how it's going YTD.
The $BTC data is about one day delayed but the seasonality appears to be playing out.
#Bitcoin
https://m.primal.net/HOWM.png

2023-10-23 13:50:49

Keep an eye on the Yen which is set to break down.
USDJPY weekly outside-inside and up.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/o/OjPXXNIK.png
What will be the macro catalyst to ignite the move?🔥
https://iris.to/note1wytf8fe9uqvw0v6lqt8pxd0qas754rpeg40zmdsquaxswxw0hrcqaqkw7m

2023-10-16 13:40:21

The inverse Cramer indicator is undefeated. 🤣
https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1711841625431789762?s=20

2023-10-09 17:23:44

$BTC positive weekly seasonality kicks in this week.
Interestingly a pullback here is actually necessary here for #Bitcoin to put in a base for any kind of sustainable rally.
https://m.primal.net/HNDu.png
Price action-wise, $BTC is currently momo-up on the weekly, so we need to see a re-test of the 27176 pivot to extinguish the weekly momo-up condition and remove this weak market structure.
So watch for a break and flush through 27176 and then see if buyers step in.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/4/4jYboSCM.png
#Bitcoin #trading

2023-10-09 17:20:13

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Nice episode Stephan. 👍
One part that wasn't 100% clear to me is around the counterparty risk associated with the premiums collected from the market maker - Calypso?
When I sell a covered call option on Atomic Finance, where does the premium that the buyer pays me go? Is it locked in the DLC along with the collateral, or is it held somewhere else?

2023-10-02 13:57:18

By now, most of you have probably seen a chart similar to this one, which shows that September is historically a seasonally weak month for $BTC.
https://image.nostr.build/ee37d6fc7c7503fee5417d323017198540ca815e21a102ec12796c86f219e044.jpg
An interesting follow-up question is what does history have to say about months where September was actually positive?
Was the following month and the rest of the year positive?
Interestingly, since 2010, there have been 4 occasions where Sept. had positive returns.
After that, 3/4 had positive returns in October.
All 4/4 had positive returns in November and 3/4 had positive returns in December.
So on net, seasonally, it hasn't paid to be short #Bitcoin in Q4.
https://image.nostr.build/99443a09b7dba87aca009a93b728038d490f330fd74dc92c3d0d2bb68ccef3d1.png

2023-09-29 16:26:34

gm
Here's today's PSA.
Markets don't bottom on Fridays.

2023-09-27 18:01:18

We're in the midst of a min peak-to-trough 10%+ correction in equities. 📈📉
$VIX 19.55 is a forgone conclusion.
Watch and see if we get into the 21-22 area.
$SPY left a lot of poor market structure behind on it's run from 415-459.
$SPY 422 is high probability pivot followed by 420.
#trading
https://image.nostr.build/e207151009dcc586a8551462d17c486a535d657fbe75f17c0a3ab5954165a56c.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/8ddbf69b423bb5ad4a753873297c175185cc9e0e3bd314f0cb73cb8581105f2f.png

2023-09-26 13:47:42

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lnbc10u1pj39c8npp5ue84rfxen2phskfctl2525gn228hcf8zru6z8t9yhfdwlk5dm3hsdq5g9kxy7fqd9h8vmmfvdjscqzzsxqyz5vqsp5fj7tt6egjdaprzrcfrvqpkxk4hwrryw7g87wd8x4qjp7vppe3k3q9qyyssq9yda52qprpw0y382rs4wv65temegr0g3j2psftturz8q9nen86f9rly6z2fl5y5nam4ucyc7jus5lqn9l2sftrpmwsmg3egym2zlvvcpcnu625

2023-09-22 13:32:31

GM
Repeat after me - "Markets don't bottom on Fridays".

2023-09-20 12:17:32

Kaching - thanks for playing. 🎰💸
Taking some profits here on the $ETHBTC trade before FOMC this afternoon.
There's more downside possible but taking some chips off the table.
#trading #btc #eth
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/3/3JgvLwcE.png

2023-09-11 14:56:02

Top of the morning. ☕
1370 here we come.
Currently short a bunch of shitcoins and waiting to see how the market reacts to the macro news on Wednesday and Thursday as well as the potential supply coming from FTX.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/l/ltJQ2z0S.png

2023-09-08 13:34:04

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I'm pointing out the next significant pivot.
17.30 marks the outside bar high.
Outside bars are fractal broadening formations .
So that pivot both attracts and repels - if we trade close we will likely trade to and through that pivot.

2023-09-07 13:35:13

Not enough people are talking about it.
The high-yield bond ETFs $JNK and $HYG are both trading outside-inside on the monthly chart and consolidating at the precipice.
If we see a break of last month's outside bar to the downside, watch out. 👀
This means that the market is expecting more defaults or lower recoveries from junk bonds, which could be caused by factors such as higher interest rates, a worsening economy, lower earnings, or more volatility, and drive investors into safer risk assets. 📈📉
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/o/OnV4mqZU.png
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/DmAAjGcW.png

2023-09-07 13:03:39

Alright $VIX reclaimed the 15.45 level.
Now watch to see if we reclaim the 17.30 pivots.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/7/7ajATOJA.png

2023-08-31 14:41:41

Looks like Ideogram has made some serious progress in cracking the AI text-generating code.
https://ideogram.ai/api/images/direct/ZexKKAgiTRqX_gt89btqfg
https://cdn.nostr.build/i/25890926424339ef43cbbbaece7f02a540b87c867264e5c77029c5e1b50411af.jpg

2023-08-29 20:47:33

Call it a slow-motion rug pull. 🦥🐌
Over 170 years ago in January of 1862, United States representative from Ohio, George Pendleton, took the floor and declared that if the members of Congress were to disengage money’s material moorings in gold and silver, they would -
https://i.imgur.com/TnhbDqn.png
From "The Money Plot" by F. Kaufman (2020)

2023-08-29 17:57:18

Want to see something cool? 👀
So where did today's big spike in $BTC take us?
The price went right up to and tested the lower BF trendline that I posted back on August 16th.
One of the most flawed mental models is that price trades in horizontal support/resistance levels.
The markets are always looking for liquidity, which is why you will ALWAYS see higher highs and lower lows.
#bitcoin #BTC #trading #plebchain
https://cdn.nostr.build/i/72308007180ae995a3e0cfe5b3f4b0f1cce3a9c2ef5bcd151ed51ab0e088ba8d.png
https://cdn.nostr.build/i/8f790c2b636bc29db9964459659619fba4c7aa1cb070191d8f6fd5dc8c6027a7.png

2023-08-29 15:53:06

Don't be fooled into chasing the price here.
A lot of poor market structure is being left behind, so we are likely to retest the breakout area for liquidity.

2023-08-25 17:31:47

Repeat after me - "Markets don't bottom on Fridays".

2023-08-22 20:34:53

$ETH update -
The BF posted earlier on $ETH is still unfolding, which brings the 1400 area into play.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/k/KFCheaIv.png
https://iris.to/note1qk39cxyjthv3uzh9x7wn5ekp5xn47xhfhlj40aqufaqtyu5xyx2s5sumdy
#ETH #trading

2023-08-22 14:29:00

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💯- but somehow these token schemes attract the fiat minded like a moth to a flame. When will it ever end? 😂

2023-08-22 14:12:43

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Speaking of social websites, @npub1qny…95gx, i'd love to hear your take on friend.tech. 🤣

2023-08-18 00:25:58

$BTC update -
As noted with the monthly reversal in force June's lows were in play (24825) and we got as low 24713.
The next major pivot is 19592 which i think is a possibility but not likely in a straight line.
In the meantime, I will be looking for some short-term dip-buying opportunities should they appear but will be quick to get short should the recent lows not hold.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/p/PK24xq8h.png
https://iris.to/note12yzltal3yr0eegtxrlkn4s563z4302phdpnqjc2u6stgh2fkslps5kj95j

2023-08-17 16:11:18

So who have you guys got for this weekend's #UFC? 🤔
https://i.imgur.com/qrkXjY5.png

2023-08-17 15:53:33

Keep watching that $ETHBTC 0.06108 pivot. 👀
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/8/82Y3JlYV.png
https://iris.to/note12u5jgu25znclny8m2g5kyq74h5vzqwa5j6yukukcz49mvadla9fsuty0nq

2023-08-17 15:41:57

Flush!
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/y/ykaHtZKF.png

2023-08-16 20:48:12

Here's the current book.
Trimmed some profits and now trailing.
Breadth measures are low but not yet extended so now waiting for some extreme readings and price to confirm before looking to accumulate.
https://i.imgur.com/tihYRx2.png

2023-08-16 20:16:11

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Totally normal. 🤡🌍

2023-08-16 20:10:21

Want to see something neat?
How's the BF that I posted on the 11th playing out?
https://iris.to/note12s4a49y9jwssztzqthrmtuzzkh7fjnmcdeaqzw9zuz2gum7egf4sammvmc
And now:
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/o/OW4UWxo9.png
RIP to Rob Scott - a pioneer in popularizing broadening formations.

2023-08-15 20:25:04

Kaching - As the saying goes, sometimes all you have to do is wait until all the chips are on one side of the table. 💰
https://i.imgur.com/3kGxKWe.png

2023-08-11 17:12:55

Kaching - as posted earlier we now have higher highs and lower lows.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/0/0NzTy7Y1.png
https://iris.to/note1ljxjvns93et4ufnvzj5vj0wge9q27596ep9g2leuvmeghvttnugshazu26💸

2023-04-05 01:21:25

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That's right. The lower low often is the better entry for several reasons:
- stops out early bottom pickers
- completes the A-B-C extension
- sets up for the potential double bottom
- sets up for a potential bullish divergence on various indicators.
Note the 2D-RDR-L that formed at the bottom and the recent 2D-RDR-S at the top of the range.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/x/x5qnQF2i.png

2023-03-23 01:35:32

Well I hope you heeded the warning -
https://i.imgur.com/iskNqX6.png
#[0]
These things play out like clockwork.
Take some time to study past FOMC's and it will help you scenario plan.
As a trading mentor once told me everything you need to know about trading is right in front of you.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/b/bB1bn8B1.png

2023-03-22 17:03:01

$BTC update
1 hour and change before the FOMC announcement.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/n/nwVNZ1l8.png
Daily - $BTC currently inside day and up.
60m - $BTC going momo up (weak market structure).
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/n/niDgbY30.png
We will likely see a 60m outside bar post-FOMC so be prepared for a sell $BTC post-FOMC scenario.
The buyers are currently in control so if the price breaks back into yesterday's highs, watch out for the potential for an outside day to the downside.

2023-03-22 16:54:29

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That's some choppy stuff on CCJ.
Sideways price action for nearly a year now.
Probably best only getting involved at extremes until the range breaks.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/p/pRvsFuRI.png

2023-03-14 15:20:46

+13R on the $BTC long.
130 sats for the next 10 people who zap, reply, or follow!
Everything lined up on this trade.
Price action, structure, breadth, and market sentiment.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/k/KmdVsxE5.png
To the johnny come latelys - look back on the timeline and see that I was calling for this buying opportunity on the 9th and legged in on the 10th. 😄
#[0]
#plebchain

2023-03-10 13:58:48

$BTC
Took profits in all shorts and started nibbling on longs.
+7R on the BTC short.
https://i.imgur.com/tF8ygD9.png
Now let's see if $BTC can work its way back through the BF.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/y/y9wJ5tKh.png
#plebchain

2023-02-24 20:19:34

Thanks for the zaps ⚡️ nostr friends!
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_63338bd1f895614031e24f1752938714c286f2e93f612069a4a4b1ea3ed7fcda.png

2023-02-24 17:53:23

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Fun experiment. 5k zapped!

2023-02-24 17:50:44

just testing my nostr account on #Current App, shoot me a Zap!

2023-02-24 17:15:47

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Nice! Been waiting for the next episode to drop. 🙏

2023-02-24 16:29:26

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Yes bear markets have historically ended when we get a reversal on the quarterly chart - which happened this quarter.
So agreed this sets up a buying opportunity.

2023-02-24 15:41:21

I wonder where $BTC is going?
As soon as we lost the green week a test of the monthly open becomes highly likely.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/e/enpbjQVG.png

2023-02-24 03:51:24

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They're probably coming for the king.
https://i0.wp.com/mindsetmadebetter.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/549-You-come-at-the-king-you-best-not-miss..png

2023-02-24 03:43:50

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I think Canada is setting up for a rug pull.
The CSA just announced yesterday that exchanges and other platforms would have to abide by "enhanced investor protection commitments." 🤣
Canadians won't be able to use margin or other forms of leverage on registered exchanges in Canada, and there will be a ban on selling stablecoins without the CSA's permission.
We're going back to the stone ages.
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/02/22/canadian-crypto-trading-platforms-face-enhanced-rules-under-new-regulations/

2023-02-23 18:55:13

Trading principles to remember -
Keep your losses quick and small.
Don't ever let the market tell you you're wrong.
Always let the market tell you when your position is correct. It is your job to know you are wrong and not the market's job.

2023-02-22 19:13:02

Watching the Blur vs. OpenSea feud is like watching two kids fighting over a toy in the sandbox, but with NFTs instead. 🙄
Now one of their founders is doing victory laps on the podcasting circuit like he won a Nobel Prize and the rest of CT is fawning over his tweets.
Congrats buddy, enjoy your 15 minutes of fame... just don't let hubris trip you on your way out. 🤦‍♂️

2023-02-22 15:28:33

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It's nice but as some have already commented there are no zaps ⚡.
I suppose it could be a good client for non-Bitcoiners.

2023-02-21 18:17:06

$ETHBTC follow up
$ETHBTC finally took out the 0.067801 pivot that we've been calling out for some time.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/7/7GusfWTn.png
Being a higher timeframe pivot it's very common to see a reaction when these pivots get tested.
Pro tip: There's edge to be had for short-term traders who can identify these pivots as areas to provide liquidity.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/v/VVbx8hxI.png
Lastly, big picture $ETHBTC is now Monthly momo down with the 0.066 pivot now in play.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/f/FgmoL7x6.png
Prior note on $ETHBTC here-
#[0]
⚡⚡⚡ if you enjoy this post!

2023-02-21 02:26:05

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🦔 🤣

2023-02-20 14:56:03

$ETHBTC update
Daily outside bar caught some longs offside.
$ETHBTC now 🔴 all on major timeframes.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/g/GgpkcOSp.png
Weekly inside bar reversal continues to play out with the 0.067801 pivot in play.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/i/Izb5cxHu.png
Monthly shows a possible outside and down scenario setting up or possibly outside and inside for February with the 0.066 pivot being the main pivot in play.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/o/OorifUM7.png
Remember that price leads narratives - so don't wait for the why, just respond.

2023-02-19 21:39:28

Spent the day on the slopes.
Does anyone know what that warning sign ⚠️ in the distance means? 🤣
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_64a8cbaf51fbcd51e4019eca3f372bcf74127cc30d396025d5bde52a845c533e.jpeg

2023-02-19 13:36:14

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/lottery 110

2023-02-17 21:08:36

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Paid!

2023-02-17 21:07:27

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Paid!

2023-02-17 00:55:10

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Love CR! 😂

2023-02-16 21:48:24

To mark my recent +11R $BTC trade - i will send 110 sats to the first 11 people who post invoices.
No follows or reposts necessary. PV
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/c/crsb34rL.png

2023-02-16 21:45:54

$ETHBTC update
The .066 pivot is still in play.
Looking more and more likely that we'll get it.
Weekly - inside bar reversal to the downside.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/z/ZnVKZPWE.png
Remember price leads the narrative.
So not sure what's the next shoe to drop for $ETH but $BTC should outperform relative.

2023-02-16 16:22:26

As mentioned - note the short-term liquidity that showed up at 25200 area.
If you don't understand why - you're not watching the right levels.
https://i.imgur.com/1GzrHkh.png
#[0]

2023-02-16 02:04:31

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💯

2023-02-16 01:44:00

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I'm in agreement that Bitcoin is a unique asset.
But it's far from a snowflake. ❄️
If you're a trader and you're leaning on technical indicators then it's incumbent upon you to understand how they're constructed and their limits.
In the end, good traders don't use technical indicators to predict the movement of price - that's what analysts do. 😂
Good traders use technical indicators to trade against other traders.

2023-02-15 19:12:32

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And looking for other Montrealers.

2023-02-15 19:12:10

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🙋🏼

2023-02-15 18:39:10

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Yes, but if one could time their entries then $BTC would grow as a percentage of their net worth more quickly.
You would then rebalance and start the process again.
But I don't think that's the question you are asking.
It always goes back to what are your financial goals, and how much time, and personal energy are you willing to commit?

2023-02-15 17:30:00

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The first thing I would say is to distinguish between trading and investing.
As a trader asset allocation is only important in so far as it allows me to hedge and/or run a correlated/un-correlated book.
If you're a "crypto" trader, then $BTC/$ETH are your benchmarks.
But for most people who don't care about trading, you should honestly consider whether you can really outperform $BTC and how much time you are willing to spend on that endeavour.
Some sort of passive DCA'ing approach is probably best suited to most people, and while there's a good discussion to be had about which is the best DCA approach, from a psychological perspective you're better off following a systematic DCA approach than one that relies more on human judgment.

2023-02-15 16:13:41

There was plenty of time to get into the $BTC trade if you didn't catch the reversal.
8H-outside-inside-inside break to the upside which caught some people offside and others chasing.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/o/Oi9AYVLH.png

2023-02-15 16:10:05

$BTC update
Up +4R from the entry.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/1/1ukIh8F8.png
Expect to see some resistance around the Monthly open - 23136 area.
If we clear that level then that puts 23430 squarely in the 🎯that marks the pivot high of the outside bar from Feb. 23rd and MOMO down sequence.
25205 is still the larger pivot in play.

2023-01-14 19:44:29

The Bitcoin bear market officially ends when we get the 3M reversal.
21470 on Bitfinex spot.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/y01mROm3/

2023-01-11 19:00:09

#[0] - the TestFlight beta is full.
How do i get Damus?
https://i.imgur.com/NFldRn6.png