G Elliott Morris

https://bsky.brid.gy/r/https://bsky.app/profile/gelliottmorris.com

i write the data-driven politics newsletter Strength In Numbers: [gelliottmorris.com/subscribe](http://gelliottmorris.com/subscribe )

wrote a book by the same name [wwnorton.com/books/Strength...](http://wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers )

polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news

formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me

🌉 [bridged](https://fed.brid.gy/bsky/gelliottmorris.com ) from 🦋 [gelliottmorris.com](https://bsky.app/profile/gelliottmorris.com ), follow Bridgy Fed for Bluesky (npub1pqr…2sck) to interact

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Link: http://wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers

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2026-06-02T21:38:25Z

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Last Notes

2026-03-15 17:04:48 UTC

“We want to change the rules of the next election so Democrats don’t win anymore”
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2026-03-11 14:50:10 UTC

New: The groups Trump made the biggest inroads with in 2024 are the ones most likely to disapprove of how he's doing as POTUS. That includes Black, Latino, working class, and young voters.
So much for the new multi-racial, working-class Republican Party?
[www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trump-borr...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trump-borrowed-affordability-voters-2026-03-10 )
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2026-02-27 13:02:14 UTC

The entire Democratic strategy debate — "moderate" or move left? fight or compromise? — is based on a misreading of data. Voters don't think Dems are too progressive; they think Dems are weak. The actual math on what to do about this isn't even close!
New: [www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-d...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-democrats-real-problem-isnt )
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2026-02-12 13:01:20 UTC

New poll: In 2024, low-engagement voters went for Trump over Harris by 11 percentage points. But now they disapprove of the way he's handling the presidency by 13. They have moved 25 points against Trump — 2x as large as the shift for high-knowledge voters [www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trump-lost...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trump-lost-low-info-voters )
[Trump has lost the voters who ...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trump-has-lost-the-voters-who-werent )

2026-02-12 00:37:12 UTC

Rough week for Trump, right? Backlash from Rs to racist memes, loses the Canada tariffs vote, Lutnick and Bondi making terrible headlines in Congress, SAVE passes but DOA in Senate, all-time-low approval numbers… etc. I’m expecting some truly unhinged Truth Social posts tonight

2026-02-11 18:11:49 UTC

weird how so many democrats from competitive seats feel compelled to vote against the party line (and national interest), but republicans don't. makes you wonder if they are taking bad advice that has little to do with electoral performance, and GOP pols know this
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2026-01-31 13:00:28 UTC

Public opinion has shifted dramatically against the White House's approach to immigration enforcement, as captured in the rising % of adults who want to abolish ICE (now +12 among independents, per YouGov). Dems have a lot of leverage to push for reforms rn. [www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-imm...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-immigration-tipping-point )
[The ICE shootings are a tippin...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-immigration-tipping-point )

2026-01-28 21:15:15 UTC

New low for Trump approval today, at 39% of U.S. adults on average across dozens of pollsters. [fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...](https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/approval/president )
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2026-01-25 02:10:17 UTC

YouGov is out with a new poll after ICE killed another person in Minnesota today. Abolishing ICE is now +5 among all adults, and **+12 among independents**
[substack.com/@gelliottmor...](https://substack.com/@gelliottmorris/note/c-204664112?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=a9pj )
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2026-01-24 18:26:11 UTC

Reminder: All it would take to end the murder of American citizens by an untrained government goon squad is 16 Republicans in Congress voting with Dems to defund ICE (or 23 to impeach and remove Trump — 3 in House & 20 in Senate). That’s it. 23 Americans can vote for the public and end all of this.

2026-01-24 18:03:38 UTC

Why is Dem leadership not on the ground in MN? If the answer is “polls show Trump’s disapproval is only -15 on deportations, but -25 on prices,” thats a Bad Use Of Polling and a complete failure in their capacity as leaders to lead public opinion and fight for democracy and the rule of law

2026-01-18 20:05:24 UTC

Gallego ("moderate" Dem) is going with "ICE needs to be totally torn down" (not "reform and retrain"). This is a pivot point for the country on immigration. You have been seeing this in the data for a while, and now officials are snapping to the public opinion [www.gelliottmorris.com/p/ice-is-a-7...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/ice-is-a-70-30-issue-against-trump?r=a9pj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web )
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2025-12-17 16:54:06 UTC

i liked this graph [www.bloomberg.com/opinion/feat...](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/features/2025-12-17/why-can-t-congress-agree-demographic-divides-not-redistricting )
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2025-12-08 21:33:20 UTC

i asked chat gpt to fact check an article for me
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2025-12-03 03:56:16 UTC

A recap of tonight's special election in TN-07 (plus a WAY-TOO-EARLY model of the 2026 midterms).
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
[www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-special-election-in-tennessees )
[What the special election in T...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-special-election-in-tennessees )

2025-12-01 20:32:15 UTC

it looks like the "mississippi" miracle in reading scores was due to be a pretty basic stats error in the design of the experimental study (selecting on the dependent variable)... a lotta people Got Got on this one! [statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/01/h...](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/01/how-much-of-mississippis-education-miracle-is-an-artifact-of-selection-bias/ )
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2025-11-20 13:00:38 UTC

Good morning. I've got a banger new post out today that develops a new method for placing voters on the left-right ideological spectrum, and adds a new, "non-ideological"/affordability axis to usual way we chart & think about US voters (esp swing voters). [www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-left-vs-right-most-voters )
[Not just left vs right: Most v...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-left-vs-right-most-voters )

2025-11-18 14:30:05 UTC

this is just a wild thing to tweet a week after democrats won a statewide in Georgia by 20 points. completely divorced from the current electoral environment
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2025-11-18 14:07:11 UTC

Here's a thread of results from our newest Strength In Numbers/ [@verasight.bsky.social@bsky.brid.gy](https://bsky.app/profile/verasight.bsky.social ) poll, out today:
- D+5 on generic ballot, grows to D+7 when voters are told Rs control Congress.
- Trump at -16 approval, underwater on inflation by 33 pts and on health care by 26
[www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-d...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-democrats-lead-the-2026 )
[New poll: Democrats lead the 2...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-democrats-lead-the-2026 )

2025-11-13 18:26:21 UTC

1/2 One of the big problems for the always-punching-left Democratic consultants is that they are waging ideological battles in public that actually _reinforce_ the left-wing image of the party that they are trying to fight. That is a risk they have decided
[substack.com/@lakshyajain...](https://substack.com/@lakshyajain/note/c-176876237?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=a9pj )
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2025-11-09 15:27:02 UTC

Ipsos finds Trump’s approval rating is decreasing almost entirely because of anti-incumbent economic anxiety. Approval rating among people who say the economy is the # 1 issue is -24pts since Jan. It’s stable for people who index on all other issues [www.ipsos.com/en-us/lesson...](https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/lessons-2025-elections )
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2025-11-06 15:50:26 UTC

If it's true that RealClearPolitics removed their polling average of the VA Attorney General race because it was wrong, that should really be the nail in the coffin for them. It's GOP polling propaganda that hasn't been rigorous or transparent in a long time ([www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-pollin...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-polling-website-where-republicans ))
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2025-11-05 03:34:48 UTC

not to bring the vibe down, but my guess is that after tonight Trump will probably double down on gerrymandering, voter suppression, and intimidation as tactics to disincentivize Dem turnout ahead of next year‘s midterms. (with margins like these, it won’t matter, but it’s a time to be vigilant)

2025-11-04 19:09:11 UTC

I have calculated a set of county-level benchmarks for following the statewide elections in VA, NJ, GA and PA tonight. This is smarter than just watching votes roll in because it helps account for unreported areas. Will update the spreadsheet as votes come in. Link: [docs.google.com/spreadsheets...](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19O3fYSlp32WSzzcFcaCYW0Vgoxou4dt2OG3Fsisjxag/edit?usp=sharing )
[2025 statewide elections bench...](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19O3fYSlp32WSzzcFcaCYW0Vgoxou4dt2OG3Fsisjxag/edit?usp=sharing )

2025-11-03 14:10:20 UTC

Trump posts his worst-ever net approval rating in a CNN poll this morning, 37% to 63% (-26) [s3.documentcloud.org/documents/26...](https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/26211915/cnn-poll-trump-midterms-east-wing-parties.pdf )
[s3.documentcloud.org/documents/2621...](https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/26211915/cnn-poll-trump-midterms-east-wing-parties.pdf )

2025-10-24 11:45:07 UTC

New polls from Gallup, YouGov, and out of Virginia show voters now trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle the economy. Nationally, Dems now have a 4-point margin on the issue — an 18-point shift away from Trump since 2023. Time to update your priors
[www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-show...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-show-voters-trust-democrats )
[Polls show voters now trust De...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-show-voters-trust-democrats )

2025-10-22 02:37:48 UTC

we are at nearly at peak inflation level numbers on people seeing the economy as "getting worse"
RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:ke6f766al4swdugyvmvyipuo/post/3m3qsqtezhc2z
#note19qr…cap5

2025-10-20 02:45:41 UTC

There is a bias among pundits to eye-roll and dismiss Dem opposition to Trump (such as the No Kings protests) as predictable. But in terms of raw numbers (both events and participants), what we're seeing is much bigger than e.g. the Tea Party movement was. Dems are a high entropy system right now

2025-10-19 13:15:29 UTC

After adding new data to our spreadsheet, our central estimate of turnout for the No Kings Day protests yesterday has risen to 5.5 million, with an upper bound of 8.7 [www.gelliottmorris.com/p/second-no-...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/second-no-kings-day-protests-likely )
[Second "No Kings Day" protests...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/second-no-kings-day-protests-likely )

2025-10-19 03:17:06 UTC

Good evening. We estimate that between 4.2 and 7.6 million people turned out for the No Kings Day demonstrations held around the country on Saturday. This makes Oct 18 very likely the biggest single-day U.S. protest event since 1970. [www.gelliottmorris.com/p/second-no-...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/second-no-kings-day-protests-likely )
[Second "No Kings Day" protests...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/second-no-kings-day-protests-likely )

2025-10-05 16:18:05 UTC

in a new post, trump claims he has a 65% approval rating. he is trying to manufacture consent. don't let him: [www.gelliottmorris.com/p/a-lot-of-p...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/a-lot-of-powerful-people-just-dont )
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2025-09-17 14:43:30 UTC

announcing my new think tank, the "people hate inflation, that's like 90% of why harris lost" institute

2025-09-16 00:44:47 UTC

Trump is preparing to target liberal non-profits and Democratic funding networks with executive orders as "punishment" for their alleged involvement in Charlie Kirk's murder. Meanwhile there's no evidence the shooter was left-wing & most political violence is right-wing [www.pbump.net/o/reassessin...](https://www.pbump.net/o/reassessing-the-fine-people-hoax-hoax/ )
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2025-09-07 14:03:00 UTC

If, 5 years from now, we are looking back under autocratic rule, thinking about when exactly democracy died in America, the president building a paramilitary goon squad to enforce a domestic political agenda will be top of the list. What do you want to have stood for when authoritarians took over?

2025-08-28 01:46:25 UTC

"Researcher who has distorted voter data appointed to Homeland Security election integrity role" [www.nbcnews.com/politics/tru...](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/researcher-voter-data-2020-trump-election-integrity-rcna227494 )
[Researcher who has distorted v...](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/researcher-voter-data-2020-trump-election-integrity-rcna227494 )

2025-08-20 14:17:34 UTC

these people just fundamentally believe that only they have the legitimate right to political power [www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-house-...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-house-map-from-tx-republicans )
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2025-07-22 16:57:42 UTC

Trump now at -40 approval with young people, down from roughly even at the start of his term, per YouGov. The buyers remorse with Gen Z is real
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2025-07-17 14:11:20 UTC

Trump’s immigration agenda is now pretty deep underwater, including by 30 points among independents
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2025-07-06 15:02:42 UTC

It didn't feel like it at the time, but in 2024 four key swing states — Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire and North Carolina — were all more Democratic-leaning, relative to the nation as a whole, that an any point since 2004 [www.gelliottmorris.com/p/83-of-vote...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/83-of-voters-view-medicaid-favorably )
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2025-07-05 15:15:23 UTC

Trump’s approval rating on deportations is currently lower than his approval on the economy
[www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data )
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2025-07-01 16:40:06 UTC

It is worth noting that the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" is incredibly unpopular. I haven't seen a single credible poll with support above 40% of adults.
And that's just if you ask people, "Do you support the OBBB." If you poll them about the individual components, it's 30+ points underwater.
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2025-06-27 16:48:37 UTC

Trump's approval on immigration and deportations plunged after Kilmar Abrego Garcia was sent to El Salvador. Then it sank again after Trump sent the military into Los Angeles—along with how voters rated his deportation policy. Approval on both issues is now down 20 points from the start of his term.
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2025-06-23 13:07:13 UTC

According to our polling average, Trump is underwater on immigration, the economy, inflation and (not pictured) foreign policy.
[www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data )
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2025-06-22 02:09:57 UTC

Two pertinent graphs from me tonight...
First, U.S. support for bombing Iran is very low — much lower than support was at the time for the American military attacking Afghanistan, Iraq, and ISIS.
Link: [www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-amer...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-americans-oppose-us-bombing )
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2025-06-15 11:10:18 UTC

Based on crowd-sourced records of No Kings Day event turnout, and extrapolating for the cities where we don't have data yet, it looks like roughly 4-6 million people protested Trump across the U.S. yesterday. That's nearly 2% of the U.S. pop!
Mobilized anti-Trump resistance is exceeding 2017 levels
["No Kings Day" protests turn o...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/no-kings-day-protests-turn-out-millions )

2025-06-13 17:28:47 UTC

New Reuters/Ipsos poll:
- 35% of adults approve of Trump’s response to LA protests
- 50% disapprove
By net +9 adults say the president has “gone too far with arrests of immigrants”
Other polls paint similar picture:
[www.gelliottmorris.com/p/all-the-po...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/all-the-polls-on-the-la-protests )
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2025-06-10 15:46:55 UTC

YouGov poll, just out: "Should ICE agents be required to wear uniforms while making arrests?"
Yes: 68%
No: 18

2025-06-10 13:49:04 UTC

Brand-new polling from YouGov out this AM finds Trump's actions re: LA underwater. Double-digit disapproval on sending in Marines.
This should be a reality check for those people arguing the protests inherently help Trump bc his immigration approval # is positive.
[today.yougov.com/topics/polit...](https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2025/06/10/50147/4 )
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2025-05-23 12:52:40 UTC

open chart, keep scrolling down
[www.gelliottmorris.com/p/republican...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/republicans-want-you-to-pay-more )
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2025-05-19 15:16:27 UTC

The House GOP last night approved Medicaid cuts that will kick millions off insurance & shrink after-tax income for many families in the bottom income quintile
Hard to fathom how unpopular this is. Just 14% of voters wants to cut Medicaid to pay for tax cuts
[www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-a...](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-americans-oppose-trumps )
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