Nicholas Grossman

International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Editor of Arc Digital. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.

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Last Notes

2026-03-25 17:59:38 UTC

Trump is seeking a deal with Iran, presumably to stop the economic damage, but what if Iran doesn't want the war to end yet?
They've got a stranglehold on global energy, they rejected the US peace offer, and America's leadership doesn't seem to know what to do.
My latest, in @liberalcurrents.com@bsky.brid.gy:
What If Iran Doesn’t Want the ...

2026-03-20 13:49:31 UTC

The US sending more troops to the Middle East, including a few thousand Marines, illustrates the White House's stupid, short-sighted incompetence.
If going to war, position them in advance, don't deploy a few weeks into it. Takes time to get there, while death, chaos, and economic damage increases.

2025-11-08 18:49:07 UTC

"ICE" refers to a specific federal agency—U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement—and is also a generalized term meaning "federal agents who brutally violate rights in Trump's anti-immigrant campaign."
So the Boarder Patrol is a separate agency, but also, it's ICE.
Both. Like Q-Tip or Kleenex.

2025-11-08 15:19:30 UTC

Trump's understanding of Obamacare has been consistent:
1) Obama, therefore bad.
2) Rich Republicans and right-wing media hate it, so denouncing it generates praise/donations.
3) Average people don't like losing benefits, so lie that they'll get something better, enough will buy that.
That's it.

2025-11-08 14:39:21 UTC

The laws of war are not mere niceties. They are lessons from centuries of blood agreed upon to keep the world more stable.
Violating them isn’t hero cop who cuts through red tape to get things done, it’s psycho cop who crosses lines in ways even the rule benders find appalling and must be stopped.

2025-11-08 13:09:25 UTC

Caribbean boat strikes are illegal and bad strategy even if everyone they’ve killed was a narcotics trafficker. Not terrorists, not attacking America, not at war at all. The legal and strategically smart move for drug smuggling boats is interdiction.
Worse, the AP found some weren’t even criminals.
Trump has accused boat crews o...

2025-11-07 17:33:53 UTC

Giving a bully your lunch money doesn't make them leave you alone. It shows them you're an easy mark and encourages them to demand more.
Appeasing fascists doesn't make them less fascist. It shows them you're weak and encourages them to demand more.
It's only ONE OF THE MOST REPEATED LESSONS EVER!

2025-11-07 16:59:50 UTC

Humanity isn't staring down a threat from soon-to-be-sentient machines, it's facing a growing threat from humans wrongly believing non-sentient machines are sentient.
#nevent1q…9y4u

2025-11-07 13:13:41 UTC

It looks like Trump and the GOP’s whole shutdown plan was:
1) Lie that a shutdown gives the president vast new powers and they’ll use them to do what they’ve already been doing
2) Pretend the minority is in charge of govt
3) Hurt America more
4) Democrats fold and validate Trump’s lawbreaking

2025-11-06 17:01:04 UTC

The single biggest question in American law today is:
Are lies a get-out-of-laws-free card? Can the government simply lie to grant itself new powers? And is everyone else under an obligation to act as if obvious lies are true, or at minimum, that they might have merit and deserve respect?

2025-11-06 13:30:13 UTC

It’s not that 2025 voters demanded wokeness, it’s that making politics all about wokeness is absurd.
The winners ran on affordability and freedom. Candidates that ran on bigotry (Cuomo, Earle-Sears) got wrecked.
If we must put it in these terms, the public is anti-anti-woke. State repression bad.
Democrats Sweep 2025 Elections...

2025-11-03 19:58:02 UTC

Who Is the Future of the Democratic Party, Spanberger or Mamdani?
Both. Obviously both. Plus everyone in between and some outside those parameters too.
If you don't want to express support, say locales have a right to pick who they want and Trump's wrong to interfere, threatening more lawbreaking.

2025-11-03 19:41:16 UTC

Mamdani is a charismatic politician exciting young voters and the sometimes voters who stayed home in 2024. He solidly won the primary. That should be enough for Democrats anywhere.
But beyond that, he’s become a symbol of the pluralist America the fascists oppose, and directly targeted by Trump.

2025-11-03 19:37:36 UTC

City-run groceries, free busses—do you hear yourselves? That stuff is small fry. Worst case scenario the city budget takes a hit, and New Yorkers can vote to reverse it next time.
Much bigger things are happening. The US is backsliding fast, and the pro-democracy opposition needs all hands on deck.

2025-11-03 17:38:33 UTC

The United States is a crude oil exporter, sending over 4 million barrels abroad every day.
US oil refineries are operating near capacity, there's no big expansion in the works, and if they grew, they'd take more crude from the US or Canada, not dirtier oil from farther away.
Just, you know, FYI.

2025-11-03 16:00:54 UTC

This mocking use of the Jewish holy book of Exodus is yet another instance of the antisemitism that has become all too common today. In this essay I will
https://inkcap.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne&cid=bafkreigwqjobk2plnnpab67g5li7ottmy6l4cy2mfsqqya5dy22qbaoly4

2025-11-03 14:43:09 UTC

<taps sign>
I wonder if I should block people who reply to posts about Venezuela with “oil.” After the fourth or fifth one it makes me think “be quiet, the adults are talking.” But I don’t want to be rude.
#nevent1q…lw5r

2025-11-03 14:23:32 UTC

Trump didn’t sue CBS for editing an interview, he sued CBS for not making him look good.
Despite knowing the suit was bullshit and having the law on their side, CBS paid him.
When they edit an interview with Trump to make him look better than reality does, that is consistent with their settlement.

2025-11-02 23:22:19 UTC

What Democrats need now is to increase, not decrease, the number of votes they get.
They should try to make the tent bigger, not smaller.
They ought to stand for greater material wealth, not lesser material wealth.
They must welcome people, not turn people away.
Politics solved. Credit please.

2025-11-02 18:23:01 UTC

The most important skill in 21st century warfare is the ability to quickly change a tire on a large tractor without equipment. The "Two Man Barehand Tire Change," as it's known, has won or lost many a battle.
This is why basic training is run by Nascar pit crews who previously worked as farmhands.
#nevent1q…28q9

2025-11-02 17:49:05 UTC

The burden really should be on the people who recommend moving towards, accommodating, appeasing the stuff that is cratering in popularity, rather than on the people who say to oppose that stuff.
Are you sure you aren't telling everyone to buy real estate in 2007 because it made money in 2006?

2025-11-02 16:23:53 UTC

I teach a class about drones and wrote a book called “Drones and Terrorism,” so boat strikes are the case I bring the most knowledge to.
Yes, we probably don’t get this without the War on Terror’s drone strikes, at least not like this so quickly.
But on law, morality, and strategy, this is worse.
Trump’s Speedboat Attack Cross...

2025-11-02 13:10:20 UTC

Harris-Walz ran exactly the sort of economics and “kitchen-table issues” campaign these voices recommend, adamantly avoiding identity politics.
Biden-Harris was a working-and-middle-class-economics-focused administration.
“Ah, but in 2020, Democrats said…”
Yes, that was the election they won.

2025-11-02 04:35:48 UTC

Yes, the Dodgers are the Dodgers, basically Yankees West, but L.A. has been through a lot recently, they can have this one. Congrats.

2025-11-02 04:18:25 UTC

2016 was an amazing sports year
-LeBron, "the block," Kyrie, and the Cavs beat the record-breaking Warriors in a tight Game 7
-Cubs break the curse with a thrilling 8-7 Game 7
-Brady and the Pats have biggest Super Bowl comeback ever
-Plus Leicester City
But few remember. Because, well, you know.

2025-11-01 23:02:33 UTC

The US military isn’t massing off the coast of Nigeria, it’s massing off the coast of Venezuela.

2025-11-01 20:51:26 UTC

“Move to the center” isn’t right, especially not when it means adopting lite versions of the other party’s odious positions.
What a party that lost an election needs is to *capture* the center.
Maybe moving towards the ruling party does that. But sometimes, standing more firmly against them does.

2025-11-01 18:19:58 UTC

This might be a shock to some, but racially and religiously uniform places don’t have a utopian record full of comity and order. When it looks like they do, it’s usually because they’ve forcefully repressed disagreement and difference.

2025-11-01 17:13:32 UTC

The US didn’t just recently start down an anti-democratic path, it’s been on one for a decade.
I guess it’s nice that the New York Times editorial board has partially caught up years after the fact, but yeah, catching up all the way and improving coverage accordingly would be better.
#nevent1q…3slv

2025-11-01 16:29:13 UTC

There’s a sort of Dunning-Kruger effect happening where people who read widely, consider various perspectives, and put in effort to understand views they disagree with worry that they don’t do that enough, while people who don’t do any of that accuse others of being in a bubble and call it a day.

2025-11-01 14:07:47 UTC

Ah November 1, the best day of the year for parents to teach their children about taxation.

2025-10-31 18:46:21 UTC

If the White House believes nothing can turn off enough of their supporters—why wouldn’t they, since they won on a record of crimes, bigotry, and policy failure—then they’re free to act on their priorities: coddling the president’s feelings and, as @aselrod.bsky.social argues, soliciting bribes.
#nevent1q…reke

2025-10-31 16:50:34 UTC

The era of “you’re all under a moral obligation to elevate the worst stances and treat them as acceptable” has not produced good results, but if we do it even more, maybe the positives will start to appear.
#nevent1q…l3w7

2025-10-31 15:11:03 UTC

I just realized the Maine primary election isn't next week, it's not until mid-2026. We're staring down the barrel of at least seven more months of Maine Democratic Senate primary takes. My God.

2025-10-31 14:42:50 UTC

Question: But Nick, how can you say there's an AI bubble?
Answer: Primarily because the current sky-high valuations are based on a digital genie emerging soon that can do anything, such as cure cancer on demand, not on the actual existing tech product selling. But also because of stuff like this:
#nevent1q…5gu8

2025-10-31 14:20:52 UTC

One can certainly criticize Biden foreign policy on Gaza, Ukraine, or anything else (some more deserving than others). But the US starting wars it was not.
But for some Americans, the fictional antiwar Trump was too useful in factional disputes. And memes said Kamala would draft you to fight Iran.

2025-10-31 14:10:29 UTC

Of all the dumb Trump apologetics, sanewashing, and support for a fantasy version that diverges from the real thing, "no new wars" might be the single dumbest.
He was already president! To know it's BS, just look at what he repeatedly says and already did.
And yet, some really wanted to believe it.
U.S. poised to strike military...

2025-10-31 13:57:32 UTC

A "coalition of the willing" meeting in secret to coordinate on defending the democratic West from Russian aggression, and the United States isn't part of it.
Sign of the times. A profound global change, both sad and dangerous.
Spain to reportedly host 'secr...

2025-10-31 13:42:56 UTC

Savvy politics knowers look at data showing higher support for immigrants, lower approval of Trump on immigration, and rising opposition to Trump's immigration policies, and conclude that Democratic critics are stupidly highlighting Trump's strength, so they must willfully ignore the issue instead.

2025-10-30 17:46:22 UTC

When it comes to trade, I’d prefer to prioritize American prosperity and geopolitical interest. But the US media loves the shallow show and bites every time, Wall St. seems to like it and drives stocks up, and much of the public prefers it too. I was outvoted.
But the bill will come due eventually.

2025-10-30 17:42:45 UTC

Countries can’t be too quick to offer Trump pretend concessions. As typical of attempts to appease fascists, that encourages more bullying.
But stand up to it, and have leverage (like Mexico) or give him fodder for domestic propaganda (China, ROK) and he’s fine leaving the US in a weaker position.

2025-10-30 14:29:17 UTC

The under-construction White House ballroom is a symbol of the current regime's contempt for America, democracy, and the founding notion that We the People are sovereign, yes. But as @aselrod.bsky.social aptly describes, it's also "Trump’s garish warehouse of bribery."
Trump L’œil: The White House B...

2025-10-30 13:46:57 UTC

If you take the Trump/MAGA/GOP assault on Constitutional democracy seriously—and I really think you should—then the way to prevent the most harm to the most people is get this regime out of power, not by saving Republicans from themselves.
So far, Democrats have done a good job holding the line.
Opinion | Democrats shouldn’t ...

2025-10-30 13:37:58 UTC

Looks like the Trump/GOP shutdown plan was “Dems care about Americans, we don’t, so if we hurt people and lie, Dems will give us bipartisan cover for ending checks and balances.”
And guess what? Way more of the American public blames the party in charge of govt, the one choosing to do the hurting.

2025-10-30 12:22:25 UTC

Flipping the executives of Virginia and New York City from Trump sycophants to leaders that will resist federal abuses would be a significant step.
Not everything, of course. Not close. But it would increase institutional power, and make the regime spend more of its limited resources in response.

2025-10-30 11:46:46 UTC

Part of our national problem is that many refuse to accept the stakes of politics, and the in-their-face-but-somehow-denied reality that “let’s not starve children, especially when there’s money for a ballroom and a foreign bailout” is not appealing to shared values, but to a partisan position.
#nevent1q…syl0

2025-10-29 16:56:22 UTC

Here’s a good write-up on the civil war in Sudan, and what could be done to mitigate the harm.
(Excuse the pitch to Trump framing, as if he and his administration care. That’s standard in foreign policy writing when a new president takes office, in part arguing why they should care.)
A Sudan Roadmap for Trump's Fi...

2025-10-28 16:02:39 UTC

The Washington Post doesn’t exist anymore. An undead creature is wearing its skin, and may appear similar at first glance, but don’t be fooled. The Washington Post that you valued is dead, and has been decaying for some time. I’m sorry.

2025-10-28 15:15:12 UTC

I mean it. No point to going around in "will he / won't he" circles. Assume the anti-democratic forces now controlling the US govt plan on making the 2028 election not free or fair. Anything else would be naive, complacent, stupid.
But you can't do anything about that now, besides not play along.

2025-10-28 15:11:37 UTC

Will Trump try for an unconstitutional 3rd term?
Yes. Or if he's incapacitated, Vance or whoever is running things will try to hold power illegally. They tried last time they were legally required to leave power.
What can we do?
Now? Win the 2026 midterms. That's it. No more handwriting necessary.

2025-10-28 13:53:37 UTC

I’ve got a take I bet many won’t like: Dem handwringing is mostly pointless. Next elections will be dominated by “do you like all this or not?”
Anti-Trump wasn’t enough in 2024 because he wasn’t in office and a chunk of the electorate blamed problems on the party in the White House. That’s changed.

2025-10-28 13:39:38 UTC

A problem with "crime" as the basis for analysis of past elections or strategy for future campaigns is that some Americans use the word to mean "commission of felonies, especially violent ones" while others mean "nonwhite (and sometimes also non-straight) people existing, acting like they're equal."

2025-10-28 12:28:29 UTC

The theory that crime causes anti-immigrant sentiment—even though immigrants commit fewer crimes—which causes GOP votes predicted a red wave in the 2022 midterms.
If the material factor of crime was the cause, rather than scapegoating lies, then the GOP votes would have followed the crime increase.

2025-10-27 18:59:06 UTC

Whether or not the Trump regime understands this, they are gambling that their propaganda machine / internet-powered phantasmagoria will be enough to dampen and overcome any popular backlash to the mass pain they’re imposing.
One way or the other, we’re going to find out.

2025-10-27 16:48:01 UTC

The only options for Congressional Democrats are still:
1) Vote to validate Trump’s lawbreaking, including the White House unconstitutionally usurping Congress’s power of the purse
2) Don’t validate that abuse
I get why many people wish there was a third option, but right now there isn’t.

2025-10-26 17:45:25 UTC

I guess I'm just not convinced that "treat people as free and equal, especially as a matter of law, with all deserving mutual respect" is actually a minority position, and the only way to win over enough of the public is by tricking some them with appeals to bigotry. I do not think that's true.

2025-10-26 17:33:25 UTC

The party as a whole should be jumping with excitement at a young, charismatic candidate who won a primary; denouncing a primary loser who's trying to play spoiler; and appalled by anyone who's cool with Nazi stuff or insisting that's how to reach men.
The fact that it's partially not is unsettling.

2025-10-26 17:24:46 UTC

I accept the criticism that I didn't name an individual who is both vocally pro-Plantar and anti-Mamdani. What I had in mind is the overall volume of Nazi tattoo apologetics and Islamiphobic smears popping up in the ostensibly anti-that-stuff coalition, including with bad "electability" arguments.
#nevent1q…els3

2025-10-26 16:00:22 UTC

I once again apologize for criticizing the Democratic Party or anyone in it. Every recent decision they have made at any level was the best possible decision under the circumstances. I'll try harder not to forget that again.

2025-10-26 14:14:15 UTC

As general election voting begins, with binary choice logic, where the only alternative is a vote for Trump’s abuses? I get it.
The party must show it’s cool with Nazi insignia and with Islamophobic smears regardless of what voters think because that’s key to improving the brand? No thank you.

2025-10-26 14:08:16 UTC

The fact that some prominent Democrats defend a Maine Senate primary candidate’s Nazi tattoo while he isn’t even leading in polls, but not defend a NYC mayor primary winner from false smears even as he’s leading general election polls says a lot.
That doesn’t seem driven by voter preference.

2025-10-26 13:53:05 UTC

Every time, the Trump administration proclaims they have a trade deal “in principle” with China (never mind the details).
Every time, the press touts a trade deal—what negotiating!—without considering details or remembering recent past.
Every time it falls apart, because the details matter a lot.

2025-10-26 13:38:41 UTC

Mike Johnson de facto dissolving Congress tells Democrats they were right to go into the shutdown.
The White House was already ignoring Congress, usurping power of the purse, in one of the most egregious attacks on the Constitution in US history.
All voting for a budget would do is validate that.

2025-10-26 13:33:16 UTC

Gaza largely absent from US media and discourse, as violence continues.
The Trump administration doesn’t seem to care, because they already got their photo op. And apparently most media doesn’t care either, because Trump’s feelings were the most important story and they got on record with praise.
Hamas expands search for Gaza ...

2025-10-25 17:07:45 UTC

Do I really need to explain that "Reagan opposed Russian aggression and supported free trade" is a different statement than "Reagan was good in all things"?
Because the former is a straightforward factual statement, while the latter is (1) a substantially different claim, and (2) wrong.
#nevent1q…xau2

2025-10-25 14:15:12 UTC

I’m skeptical that this Venezuela stuff is an elaborate plot to steal oil.
Rubio has been on this for years. Fits with migrant/gang/drugs domestic propaganda, Trump/Hegseth bullying lawbreaking, and more.
Oil isn’t irrelevant, but sounds like recycled Iraq war theories, which weren’t right either.

2025-08-19 13:26:59 UTC

This might be the worst thing Andrew Cuomo has ever done, given the national stakes and his personal rationale.
And for a serial sexual harasser who is personally responsible for avoidable COVID deaths in nursing homes (and then lying about it), that's really saying something.
Cuomo’s seeking a Trump bump

2025-05-08 11:56:20 UTC

"The acquiescence of our most prominent civic leaders sends a profoundly demoralizing message... that democracy is not worth defending — or that resistance is futile." But when "the most influential members of civil society fight back, it provides political cover for others."
Yes. Very much yes.

2025-04-09 11:48:21 UTC

The bond market shows capital flight from the United States, with people selling off US debt.
It’s the opposite of what usually happens during economic turmoil, when people buy US debt because they think it’s the safest asset in the world.
The US-led global economic system is dead. By suicide.