SatCat
SatCat Diaries

BTC, Life, Liberty, Pursuit of Happiness, and Cats

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Last Notes

2026-04-21 00:04:51 UTC

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For “you" to find “yourself" implies two. That is the fundamental error. There are not two. You are one.

2026-03-27 16:26:00 UTC

CRACKS IN THE DAM
Doug Noland has been writing the Credit Bubble Bulletin since 2000.
Nobody tracks systemic financial risk better. This week he updated his famous “little town on the river” fable.
Here’s the short version.
They built a town beside a flood-prone river. Insurance companies started selling flood policies. Profits were good. That attracted speculators pretending to be insurers.
Nobody held reserves. A reinsurance market boomed. Construction exploded.
Then it flooded.
The market collapsed.
But the government built a dam. Then another. Then another.
Each crisis. Another bailout. Each new dam allowed the building boom to continue further downstream. The river never won. The town forgot it could.
But then an earthquake. Not a big one. But enough to crack one of the upriver dams. The villagers didn’t notice. The river wasn’t rising yet. Only the most plugged-in players knew the dam had started to crack.
Sound familiar?
Doug’s been writing about the bailout barrage for twenty-five years.
The Fed did QE in ‘19 when markets wobbled. The Bank of England nuked QT in ‘22 when UK gilts imploded. The Fed injected $500 billion when SVB collapsed in ‘23. The BOJ talked markets off the ledge during the yen carry trade unwind in August ‘24.
And when Liberation Day broke everything in April, the “TACO put” saved the day. Trump Always Chickens Out. He paused tariffs, markets ripped, crisis averted.
For every new crisis. A new dam.
The problem is that they built those dams on a fault line. The engineering is subpar. And the big one is coming.
It’s not if, but when.
Share
The Iran war is another earthquake. Strangled the Strait of Hormuz. Oil is spiking. Bonds getting goofy. Ten-year UK gilts broke above 5% for the first time since ‘08. Italian yields jumped 19 beeps in a day. Australian yields hit a 15-year high. EM currencies got crushed. Credit default swaps spiked to levels not seen since April.
The MOVE index measures bond volatility. It jumped 24 points in a single session. Double the Liberation Day move.
That’s the river rising.
Meanwhile Donny the Disruptor dropped the idea of winding down the war. Markets exhaled for twelve hours. Then reality returned. Marines are deploying. Israel keeps bombing.
But the IRGC still controls the chokepoint. They showed they can throw energy markets into chaos whenever they want.
So the “TACO put” has a problem. Because the Orange Man can’t control wars.
Every previous bailout involved a policy lever. Rate cuts. QE. Liquidity facilities. Reassuring press conferences.
Those tools work when the crisis is financial. They don’t work when the crisis is an oil tanker sitting sideways in the Strait of Hormuz.
Noland’s conclusion: central banks will respond slower and smaller than markets demand. The “whatever it takes” era is meeting its match.
Here’s what it means for your portfolio.
The levered speculating community is on their heels. Carry trades are blowing up. Risk parity strategies are sucking wind. The crowded trades that worked for a decade are unwinding.
Gold knows. Bitcoin is figuring it out. Stocks remain resilient.
But the dam has cracks. And the villagers still think it’s just another Monday.
What if it isn’t?

2026-03-22 10:26:45 UTC

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Similar. Tradfi — found MARA looking at charts and didn’t know what they did. Booth, Foss, Breedlove, AA then power curve.

2026-03-21 12:21:07 UTC

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I wish these slides were still on the app. I used them to orange pill many cats.

2026-03-18 11:57:26 UTC

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The X algorithm is an angertainment pez dispenser.

2025-12-17 22:28:29 UTC

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I watched that video. But I enjoyed this post more. Thanks — you have no idea how good the timing is.

2025-11-17 23:12:39 UTC

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Good thing you got the CPA’s blessing. Coulda been a STICKY situation.

2025-10-16 02:16:54 UTC

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I fixed it for you:
The monthly USD chart going back to 1970 is insane.
https://blossom.primal.net/595bec1ea0195c0e563e9fb23b8f4767042a404d7035c2a36bac04ae30eb6eb9.png

2025-10-13 14:10:28 UTC

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Are you guys in Montreal for the conference?
If so check out the pubs owned by Greg Foss. He is part owner of Ye Old Orchard Pub. Namesake is on Monkland (at Old Orchard) but there’s one in the plateau near the conference (on Prince Arthur).
https://www.yeoldeorchard.com

2025-08-11 15:26:57 UTC

https://open.substack.com/pub/fattercat/p/a-new-force

2025-08-05 14:49:06 UTC

MILLENNIAL VILLAGE
“Inflation is when you pay $45 for a haircut that used to be $15 back when you had hair.”
I went to a restaurant in Cambie Village.
Which is realtor speak for the gentrified area between Broadway and 25th. They even have their own Insta page. Which refers to the area as “one of Vancouver's primary heritage boulevards”.
The girl at the front Jess, holds her clipboard like it’s the Epstein list.
She tells us at 5:07 that we were too early for our 5:15 reservation. And she said it with a straight face.
When asked if we could have a drink at the bar, she quips that the bar is for walk-ins only.
Yet the 20 seat bar was 100% empty. First sign that we weren’t in Kansas anymore.
So we stumbled down to the adjacent hipster joint for a drink. Where Adam described the $29 Prosecco as having "hints of pear essence”. And said that it "tiptoed near the champagne region but with softer bubbles”. I must be in St. Tropez now.
When we returned to Jess’ place it vibed with Mills spending $30 on cocktails and $40 on crab dip.
The food was good but not great. The service was adequate but not stunning. And driving to Cambie Village in rush hour is a pain.
More striking than the prices was the ease with which most Mills pay them. Molly Millennial is ok with paying $15 for bread. And waiting in line to hand over $200 for dinner.
Then it occurred to me.
This demographic has never seen cheap prices. Because they were born into inflation.
They’ve never paid four bucks for a Bud at Bar None or five bucks for endless wings at Carlos 'n’ Buds.
Which is why it doesn’t bother them the way it bothers us.
So what does it mean?
Humans are adaptable. Inflation is not a new thing. It’s just new to us. People in Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey and Cyprus have been adapting for decades.
They cope by learning to store their wealth in houses. Or U.S. dollars. Or gold. And now on their phone in Bitcoin.
How did we get here?
Because politicians change the rules mid game to suit their narrative. To wit, the Orange Man fired the BLS economist in charge of the jobs data. Because he didn’t like the employment numbers.
He cajoles the head of the money printing cabal daily. Two of his potential replacements for Fed chief abstained from holding rates steady. (One abstention is unique. Two is a unicorn.)
Folks this is Banana Republic type stuff. What you’re witnessing is the Argentinisation of economic data.
And it’s a slippery slope where trust erodes fast. Trust in our institutions is already at all time lows. And next comes a loss of trust in our money.
The downstream effects are starting to appear. There’s no rush for Molly to get married. Or have kids. Birth rates in the western world are dropping to a point that we aren’t replacing ourselves.
The percentage of married 30 years olds who are also home owners has dropped to 75 year lows (see chart below).
As Martin Pelletier said on X, “What we did to a whole generation is shameful.”
In a word, we took away their hope. Hope of having a home. Hope of raising a family.
And when there is no hope, your time preference shrinks.
Might as well spend $58 on two ounces of Wagu. Take that $10k trip to the Amalfi coast. Why not. You’ll never be able to afford a house. Let alone a family. So what’s the point in saving?
But those non-savers end up leaning into the state for housing.
Which is why Nova Scotia is building affordable housing that looks like army barracks. Not shocking that it’s actually on an old military base.
Affordable, sure. But sole crushing and sad.
Back at the basement hipster joint “La La”, the DJ plays vinyl records from behind the bar. A hint at a desire for something real.
Molly the Mill pays for her drinks with a tap of her $1,800 iPhone. And the Gen-Z waiter knows to split the bill without even asking.
They uber everywhere and plan their sick days around long weekends. It’s early, and yet it feels like the joy has left the room.
We couldn’t get out of their village fast enough.

2025-04-24 01:20:30 UTC

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Foss taught me about super junk equity. And then orange pilled me 25 years later.

2025-04-10 13:24:09 UTC

https://open.substack.com/pub/fattercat/p/darkest-before-the-dawn?r=eq5kt&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

2025-04-07 22:08:14 UTC

https://m.primal.net/QHqQ.png

2025-03-21 13:41:43 UTC

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Lovely sentiment. And it’s better than the alternative. But the core error is that “you” cannot love your “self”.
Because that implies there are two of you. You and self.
You are yourself. Go beyond your mind. Separate the mind from the self.

2025-03-13 12:54:12 UTC

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Fred Krueger and his dalliance with SOL?

2025-03-12 18:00:00 UTC

MEET THE NEW BOSS
“Meet the new boss... same as the old boss.” -- The Who, Who’s Next 1971
Mark Carney is now the Prime Minister of Canada.
A change, it had to come. So our prorogued parliament did its job. By anointing a new king. Without an election.
That’s right folks. For the first time in history, a parliamentary democracy is being led by an unelected elite. A system that harkens back to the Magna Carta in 1215.
Now we’re led by a globalist bankster with ties to the World Economic Forum. Same as the old boss.
Carney the Technocrat (CTT) sailed through the Lib leadership race like Kessler’s AAA team. Stomping Chrystia The Impaler’s political career into the ground in the process.
He did so without having a seat in parliament. And never having held an elected office. So where’s the outrage? Can you imagine if the Cons had done something like this?
And yet, our mainstream media smile and grin at the change. Our national rag, The Globe & Mail contains no such outrage this morning.
Check the front page. Only selective indignation about the orange man. Because that’s what sells newspapers.
By the way, if you’re offended by Elon owning X, who do you think owns the Globe? That’s right. The wealthiest billionaire in Canada.
Share
I may risk offending my paying subscribers (zero). And losing my Facebook followers (also zero). But I’m compelled to take a tack aberrant from my usual miserable missives.
Folks make no mistake. We are witnessing a ‘new' revolution. Let me strip mine it for you.
Half the world has become unhinged, and the other half is celebrating. Red vs. Blue. Con vs. Lib. America vs. everybody.
Donny the Divider is doing what he said he’d do. And 86 million Americans voted for his protectionist policies.
Now Rocket Boy and his A.I. posse are putting government spending under a microscope. And that’s got anyone who’s been taking the dole scared stupid.
Rachel Maddow, Alyssa Milano, and the hosts at The View have lost their minds since the pugilist with the pompadour got in.
They can’t comprehend how fast the pendulum swung backwards and hit them in the derrière.
I know the hypnotized never lie, but here’s a crazy idea. Maybe we’ve been gaslit by the captured media.
The same media that told us that Sleepy Joe was "sharp as a tack", and Kamala was "polling well”. And that the jabs would stop the beer flu.
But none of that turned out to be true.
Up here in Snow Mexico, we’re outraged at a 25% tariff. Yet to quote Brittany, we’re not that innocent.
To wit, American cheese faces a 245.5% tariff, butter gets taxed at 298.5%, and over-quota milk incurs a duty of up to 292.5%. And rest assured, these taxes do not exist to protect consumers. They’re there to protect the interests of a few wealthy families.
The chicken and egg industries (whichever came first) operate under the same framework. With tariffs as high as 238% on chicken, 154% on turkey, and 170% on eggs.
That stifles competition and results in higher prices for beavers like you and me.
Our hypocrisy is blinding. We’re outraged at China putting 100% tariffs on our pork and beef, but say nothing about our 100% tariff on US bourbon.
Folks, this isn’t about left or right. The parting on the left is now parting on the right. And we all deserve better.
But how?
King Carney will call an election soon. He’s basking in the afterglow of his victory and will strike while the iron is hot.
What should we do?
Demand answers from both sides. Then get on your knees and pray.
We don’t get fooled again.

2025-02-24 15:30:05 UTC

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Too soon for the victims Len. Love your work though.

2025-02-24 15:28:34 UTC

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Precisely right. I’ll be using that phraseology. My FIL is a real estate developer. I’ve stopped trying to orange pill him because of his hubris born of success. He preaches cash flow and staying out of debt lol. Good thing my wife has been orange pilled.

2025-02-06 12:21:10 UTC

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*the future is a promissory note* (not present)

2025-02-06 12:20:08 UTC

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You're describing a technique that Eckart Tolle calls, "die before you die".
He would say that time is not scarce because it doesn't exist. It's an abstract concept that, as bitcoiners, we are perfectly suited to grasp.
The past is a cancelled cheque, the present is a promissory note.
The present moment is all that we have.
And all that anyone will ever have. Everything that has ever happened, happened in the now.
Spend that wisely.

2025-02-05 15:18:16 UTC

Blue Horseshoe loves Bitcoin. Got it?

2025-02-05 14:21:46 UTC

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Well, IIRC they did burn down the White House in 1812....with the help of the Brits.
Canada has never lost a war with the US fwiw. And suffered proportionally more casualties in Normandy.
Plus, I think Canadian crude oil accounts for something like 60% of US consumption....if you take that out (because the US needs it) then the US actually runs a trade surplus w/ Beaver nation to the tune of $50 billion.

2025-01-11 14:22:41 UTC

GM Nostr and happy first transaction day. Oh and this is cool:
https://m.primal.net/NbvU.jpg

2025-01-07 12:33:39 UTC

GM Nostr.
Zap before you tap.
#zapitome

2025-01-06 13:46:22 UTC

GM Nostr.
Stay classy and send zaps. #zapitome.

2025-01-04 14:28:36 UTC

GM
@nprofile…p3mr completely orange pilled my wife thanks to God Bless Bitcoin.
Our anniversary is the same day as the genesis block ... so it was inevitable.

2025-01-03 15:41:11 UTC

HBD #Bitcoin.
Oh and happy anniversary to my wife.
#blessed

2024-12-26 15:51:22 UTC

ET TU, CHRYSTIA?
"Judge me, you gods! Wrong I mine enemies? And if not so, how should I wrong a brother?" -- Brutus, Julius Caesar
Chrystia the Impaler finally did something to affect change.
Minutes before I dispatched last week's dismal diatribe, CTI quit as Finance Minister.
Impaling Mr. Socks' minority government in the process. Setting the stage for Tik-Tok Jag to bring down the Lib government.
Her experience as a journalist meant she knew how to insert the blade to inflict the most damage. Resigning mere hours before she was set to deliver the fall economic update.
That left poor JT and his minority government twisting in the wind. As a former cabinet minister said this week "there's a reason we still read Shakespeare".
And how did T2 respond to this crisis? In the same languid way that we've come to expect from his rudderless leadership.
He hid. First in his SUV. And then behind closed doors.
For hours the country was without a Finance Minister. Who would deliver the speech? Would there even be a fall economic update?
The Libs were making the Keystone Cops look like Nobel laureates.
Share
So with no one willing to jump on the grenade, the bad news sat on the table like an unopened brown envelope from CRA.
Because theres no way to sugar coat the biggest budget miss since Kevin Costner's Waterworld. A cool $20 Billion and 50% over budget.
I predicted it. In fact, my exact words were "would it surprise me if it was, I dunno, $60 Billion? Not in the least."
A bold call that turned out to be as prescient as it was precise. And now T2's chances lay impaled by one of his most loyal merry men.
To be fair folks, the political landscape is changing around the world. The fall of incumbent governments has been accelerating. And points to a greater sea change.
In every democratic nation to hold an election this year, the incumbent got crucified.
To wit, the French government couldn't get their budget through parliament and fell. South Korea's President got impeached. The German government fell. And now our laughable Libs are on life support.
Why the wave of anti incumbency?
Because in a debt bubble, governments drown in a tax and spend system. No matter how grandiloquent their rhetoric. They can promise the world, but they will fail to deliver.
Those unfulfilled promises pile on more debt. Like the $61 billion bill the Libs handed us. That debt and its concomitant carrying costs hamstring future growth.
Slower growth makes it tougher to balance the budget. And that forces governments to make one of three choices. Raise taxes, cut spending or inflate away the debt.
John Rapley, author of "Why Empires Fall" concurs.
"This is how empires fall. Any one of these solutions hurts one political constituency or another. Politicians promise they'll magic away the problem by making the economy grow faster."
Even new government can't cure what ails us.
Because the disease has already infected the lifeblood of our economies. And that disease is easy money.
When central banksters can print $60.9 billion out of thin air, who cares what we spend?
Because too much morphine kills even the healthiest patient. And now a dollar of spending no longer equals a dollar of growth. Because a full quarter of each new dollar has to go to pay the interest expense on the old debt.
That disease has our government on their knees. And someone’s always waiting in the wings, shiv in hand.
Mr. Socks just didn’t think it would be his deputy.
Et tu, Chrystia?
#BTC

2024-12-25 16:52:35 UTC

GM.
Merry Christmas Nostr!
A great day to buy BTC and never sell.

2024-12-17 18:38:41 UTC

Another reason I love BTC is that I continuously learn new things.
Like the US has 261 million ounces of shiny rocks. Think of all the sats that could buy...

2024-12-14 14:59:36 UTC

GM Nostr
Bring value & stack sats

2024-12-13 15:02:57 UTC

GM Nostr.
One sat is one penny at one hundred thousand.
But 1 BTC is still 1 BTC.
@npub1cj8…rz4u

2024-12-12 14:18:58 UTC

GM Nostr. Satoshi's last post was on the Bitcoin forum was 14 years ago today. Also my bday. Also 12x12=144 blocks per day. So basically I was born for this...

2024-12-11 15:01:19 UTC

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Pristine digital property.

2024-12-04 03:00:19 UTC

The difficulty adjustment might just be my favourite part of #Bitcoin.

2024-11-28 14:15:23 UTC

GM NOSTR. Bitcoin is peaceful.

2024-11-27 13:35:47 UTC

GM Nostr. Bitcoin is freedom tech.

2024-11-06 21:55:17 UTC

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I dialed in to BBS’s on a C64 using a 1200 baud modem.

2024-09-20 12:22:44 UTC

THE GOLDILOCKS ENIGMA
"The Goldilocks Enigma is the idea that everything in the universe is just right for life, like the porridge in the fairy tale." -- Paul Davies
Imagine that you're speeding down a winding highway.
On one side is a cliff that descends into a rocky river bed. But buffeting the other side is an icy lake.
As your car hits the black ice and begins to fishtail out of control, the steering wheel spins in your hands.
Your instinct is to hit the brakes. But what if it was better to hit the gas?
That's the dilemma our central bankers are in right now.
Because the U.S. Federal Debt is speeding towards $36 trillion. With annual interest expense set to exceed $1.2 trillion this year. More than is spent on national defense.
What's more, there are now $219 trillion in unfunded liabilities. Those come in the form of social security and medicare. Promises made, but with no money set aside to pay for them.
Folks, raising rates is like applying brakes on the economy. Because it increases the cost of servicing the existing and growing debt.
But hitting the brakes too hard could send the bond market into a deflationary fishtail. And result in a debt driven collapse. Over the cliff.
But leaving your foot on the gas too long causes the cost of money to go down. Things get more expensive as more money chases the same, or fewer goods and services. Which runs the risk of inflation, or even hyperinflation. The icy lake.
So what will they do?
We already know the answer. Central bankers will choose the gas pedal every time. Damn the torpedos. Sacrifice the savers and the poor. Let the next guy deal with it.
And it's the same dilemma for central banks all over the world. To wit, CIBC's chief economist thinks that the BOC is on the verge of a "Jumbo Rate Cut".
“It is time to declare victory in the battle against inflation and get the economy moving again.” Avery Shenfeld, said. “There’s no reason not to speed up the process of getting interest rates down.”
That was Batman. Then Robin chimed in with this dovish ditty:
"Markets are underestimating how much the BoC is going to cut rates" said Benjamin Tal. Benny is CIBC's deputy chief practitioner of the dismal science. He thinks that our Money Printer in Chief could drop the policy rate by as much as 50 beeps at the next meeting on Oct 23rd. (That's banker speak for half a point).
He thinks the policy rate could hit 2.25% by the end of 2025. That's a lot of gas.
You see, there's something called the neutral rate. Not too hot, not too cold. Above the neutral rate, interest rates are restrictive. Below it, rates are accommodative. And according to Benny, we're still well above that Goldilocks rate.
What do our central banksters think? Tiff & Co. estimate the neutral rate to be between 2.25% and 3.25%.
Think of it this way. You're approaching a curve in the road where the speed limit goes from 100 down to 60. As you enter the curve with your foot on the brakes, you decelerate. But before you know it, you're doing 45.
The propellerheads think it's time to remove the brakes and hit the gas. Because it's in everybody's interest to cut rates. Right?
Not so fast. Dropping interest rates alleviates the immediate problem of debt service. It inflates asset prices. But it adds to the long term debt problem. It doesn't solve anything. It just kicks the can down the road.
Plus, unintended consequences exist in the real world. Too much gas and you get higher food, energy and housing costs. And you rob savers of their purchasing power.
It's the next generation that pays the brunt of the costs. In the form of higher house prices, reduced benefits and delayed retirement.
In real life, it's like the three bears eat the three little pigs and then join up with the big bad wolf. Then come back and eat Goldilocks and Little Red Riding Hood.
Pick your parable. And your poison.
Either way, there’s no such thing as a fairy tail ending.
#BTC

2024-09-02 13:36:32 UTC

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Congratulations Peter.

2024-08-09 11:56:35 UTC

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Sartre

2024-08-05 01:35:36 UTC

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🐐

2024-05-22 13:19:23 UTC

BTC is property. Everything else is credit. SC Gallatoshi

2024-03-11 13:53:53 UTC

“It's dangerous to be right when the government is wrong." — Voltaire
It took the United States 205 years to get to $1 trillion dollars in debt. Now they add that every three months. How so you say?
The US Federal Government spends at a pace of $1 trillion every 100 days. And as bad as that sounds, it's about to get worse.
You see, the compounding effect works with debt too. Interest rates are up eightfold in under four years. Because of the compounding effect, 20% of the entire debt has piled up since the beer virus. With total debt set to reach $35 trillion in the next 8 weeks.
That's $106,000 for every American man woman and child. Whether you're a MAGA Trumpster, a Sanders socialist or a Neiman Marxist. You owe.
And the problem isn't going away. Because we're addicted to debt. And debt is like the opioid crisis.
One reason that debt is so addictive is the same for opioids. Because it works so well. The high is immediate. Spend today and pay tomorrow. A dollar today is worth more than one in the future.
But what happens if we keep going like this? Banks used to keep the debt structure buoyant. They'd buy US Treasury bonds to fund government spending. And keep the bonds on their balance sheet as reserves, so they can lend out at higher rates.
That worked until 10-year Treasuries collapsed 46% from March 2020 until October 2023. Those losses were comparable to the stock market crashes of the Dot-com era and the '08-'09 GFC. But this time it happened in so called "safe-haven" assets that are the linchpin of the financial world.
That prompted the government to take on even more debt. They had to inject trillions into the system through swap lines and bank bailouts like the BTFP. We passed the hot potato to the Central Banks. The problem? There's nowhere left for the CBs to pass it.
And the only steam valve left is the currency.
There's a famous experiment called Rat Park. By a psychologist named Dr. Bruce Alexander. In it, researchers offer rats two water bottles. One filled with water, and the other with heroin or cocaine. If caged alone, the rats would drink from the drug-laced bottles until they overdosed and died.
But if they were among others, free to roam, play and have sex, they preferred the plain water. "Even when they did drink from the drug-filled bottle, they did so intermittently, not obsessively. And never overdosed. A social community beat the power of drugs" said Dr. Alexander.
Folks, we need to get back to drinking plain water. Not the drug laced debt water we've become addicted to. In other words, we need to return to a focus on families, social communities, human contact and support. Like the rats that survived.
We need to force fiscal responsibility onto government. And let the parasitic politicians die out. How? By getting rid of the contaminated water. Stop letting them borrow to buy votes.
Let the pendulum swing away from where we are, and return to founding principles. That'll attract global talent. Which allows technological improvements that unlock abundant energy, clean water, and medical advances.
Then we can export that abundance to the rest of the world. Conflict over resources ends. Prices fall, purchasing power rises, humanity thrives.
With fresh water and a new pristine reserve asset of the economy.
The alternative? We persist in pressing a pleasure lever until our bodies and brains are overcome.
Living in Rat Park.

2024-02-21 02:04:56 UTC

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My sister in law literally thinks TMZ and The View are news.....it made me think of "Infotainment".
Corporate Infotainment.

2024-02-14 18:42:37 UTC

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Texas

2024-02-07 08:18:45 UTC

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women sitting around a fire

2024-01-28 13:44:19 UTC

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Clown with blue hair behind dark clouds.

2024-01-14 13:04:24 UTC

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https://m.primal.net/HXnl.png

2024-01-12 13:44:39 UTC

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#zapittome
https://m.primal.net/HXdN.jpg

2024-01-11 21:58:47 UTC

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done

2024-01-08 19:08:16 UTC

“A soft landing covers a multitude of sins.” — Katherine Starbird
They wear tailored suits, drive Tesla's to Wall Street, eat at Daniel and have Ph.D.'s in the dismal science. Some went to Harvard.
When they speak, people listen. Like E.F. Hutton. So what are they saying for '24? That rates will go down. Unemployment will peak. Inflation will keep falling. And that jobs will stay robust and the economy will expand.
In other words, a soft landing. A perfect end to a calamitous few years when rates went up 11 times and 1,900%. Which they had to. To kill off inflation. But now rates, like Zarathustra, will descend down the mountain. The chief propeller-heads are calling for a 3.50% target policy rate by the end of '24, and 2.50% by '25. Half the current level.
And the return of cheap cash couldn't come at a better time. To save the Rover Driving Realtors and Rolex hucksters from extinction. And the billions in mortgages that are set to roll this year and next.
What about the economy? American jobs excited on the upside. The economy grew at 4.9% in the last quarter. Wages are growing faster than inflation (5.7% vs. 3.1%). The Fed says a soft landing is in the cards. Good news for Biden. But does anybody else care? Or are they distracted by Tik-Tok, and whether Travis Kelce marries America's pop-sweetheart?
The scaremongers were wrong. No crash. No more rate hikes. Real estate bottomed a year ago and J-Pow righted the ship. The CB'ers meet again in less than two weeks. Rates will stay on pause. The cycle is over.
Yes, even if the orange man becomes President again. Or Putin takes Kiev. Logic will prevail. Nobody wants a hard landing, so it won't happen. Because policy makers need public debt costs to go down (see below). As Larry Lepard said "The blue line produces the income to pay the interest on the red line. See the problem?"
No folks, the central banksters will cave and they will print. Over, and over again. Because they've painted themselves into a corner. With no way out. So hang on to that corn. Because they are going to print 'til their eyes bleed.
They must. To cover their multitude of sins.
https://m.primal.net/HXBP.png

2024-01-07 15:36:35 UTC

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I'm on Primal because of this pod. Been thinking a lot about micropayments and this is exactly the UX we need. The future is bright #zapittome @npub1s5y…6q7z

2024-01-07 15:32:00 UTC

My default zap size is set to 144 because....well you know. Plus my bday is 12 12.

2024-01-07 14:48:46 UTC

Hello World.

2024-01-07 14:12:38 UTC

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bought my C64 with paper route money.

2023-11-25 17:12:50 UTC

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Serious question. We have had bitcoin ETFs up here in Snow Mexico (Canada) for over a year. Why won’t Americans (or others) simply buy the USD$ version on our exchange the TSX? Symbol BTCX’u. I know there are some esoteric rules like PFIC but it is not illegal as far as I know. Is it xenophobia? P.S. we had the first ever ETF as well — beating SPY by a few months.

2023-11-25 16:52:58 UTC

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Deontology (Kant) “closes the door to reason“ according to Ayn Rand. Consequentialism suffers the problem of being self effacing. And virtue ethics doesn’t deal well with situationist problems. But being a bitcoiner I see where you could be going with this so I’ll take the rules based approach. 😃

2023-11-21 15:35:05 UTC

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Just finished it. What a beast.