As it stands, I think we are more likely than not to see an atypical extended cycle in time that could top around early 2027 (which is the path 3 in the previous note).
Updated paths:
Path 1: 45% probability. #BTC breaks out without any substantial pull back from the current levels. The top could be reach at around 240K early in 2027.
Path 2: 25% probability. Pretty much the same as path 1 but with a retracement of the current move up (we shouldn’t revisit the last low though) before the break out.
Path 3: 20% probability. There is still a possibility that this market cycle has completed and that we take out the recent low with more downward chop to follow.
#Trading #Tradestr
quotingHere is an update on #Bitcoin price. The previous path 2 was invalidated although a variant of this path has a low probability (5%) of playing out (not in the chart).
note1nd0…l8mn
35% probability: Path 1 is now the most likely. I made some slight adjustments to it but the final timeline and price target remain the same with a top at around $135k by the end of this summer.
30% probability: New path 2 is the most bearish case with the top already and the start of a downtrend that could send us as low as $13k.
25% probability: Path 3 is now the most bullish with good odds of playing out but less likely than path 1 & 2. This one would follow a parabola. That would send us to around $240k by the end of 2026.
#BTC #Trading #Tradestr
note1ptd…fpsk