John Quiggin

I'm an Australian economist, and blogger, writing from a democratic socialist perspective. Also on Substack, Bluesky etc

Pronouns: They/He

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Last Notes

2026-04-17 00:22:49 UTC

This is so annoying. If I want to make friends with people at work, I can do it without turning up every day. And if I prefer to make friends at my local cafe, i'll do that instead. In particular, I'm not obliged to make managers feel less lonely as they walk around.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/there-s-a-silent-epidemic-in-our-workplaces-and-wfh-is-to-blame-20260416-p5zogp.html

2026-03-23 00:40:45 UTC

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Conserved energy on the bike leg, but managed an OK time thanks to lots of practice with Sunshiine Coast Tri Club. Run went well initially, but then got sick.
Next year I'll be in 70-74 group, small enough for a possible podium finish #johnqpersonal

2026-03-23 00:40:39 UTC

Belated report on Mooloolaba Triathlon, 14 March. 9th comleted Moo Tri. Since my first in 2011, times have been between 3:06 and 3:36, and this year no exception with 3:26, 14/18 in my age group. Way off course on swim leg, watch reporting 1.8km instead of 1.5km. No other excuses #johnqpersonal

2026-02-14 04:53:39 UTC

Book club frauds are a new class of scams, apparently powered by LLMs. Offer to discuss books at a club with plausible looking website turns into pitch for paid promotions
https://whatever.scalzi.com/2025/11/22/yes-all-those-author-services-and-book-club-emails-are-fake-and-no-dont-send-them-any-money/

2026-02-09 05:53:42 UTC

The IEA finally giving up on carbon capture and storage. 2025 projection for 2050 well below 2021 projection for 2035
Only inertia keeping projected share of emissions reductions (now down to 5 per cent) above rounding error https://ieefa.org/resources/minimal-role-carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage-ccus-ieas-world-energy-outlook-2025

2026-01-18 05:46:51 UTC

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Throw US out of NATO and let Ukraine in.

2026-01-18 05:46:45 UTC

US is always presented as greatest military power, and that’s true as regards global reach of carrier battle groups.
But in terms of non-nuclear land war, Europe (EU+UK+Ukraine) has more troops, more tanks, more artillery shell production and massively more drone capacity than US.

2026-01-17 03:34:20 UTC

I'm looking for someone who can clean up the group blog of which I'm part, Crooked Timber. All of the old hyperlinks have been borked so that <a href = URL>text</a> becomes "text":URL/. There's also a problem in the comments, where quote marks have been replaced by â€“

2026-01-07 00:53:29 UTC

Forgery has always been with us. Sometimes we can detect the forgery by examining the document, but techniques always improve. Provenance (a trusted source, with a trusted chain of transmission) is the only thing we can rely on in the long term.
https://www.platformer.news/fake-uber-eats-whisleblower-hoax-debunked/?ref=platformer-newsletter

2025-12-30 03:43:06 UTC

Labor delivers net zero (policy achievements) #auspol
Legislation so far in second term adds up to zilch
https://johnquigginblog.substack.com/p/labor-delivers-net-zero-policy-achievements

2025-12-13 01:35:52 UTC

What to do about university governance https://johnquigginblog.substack.com/p/what-to-do-about-university-governance

2025-12-10 05:55:48 UTC

Message David McBride, imprisoned whistleblower https://informationrights.org/take-action/message-david-mcbride?utm_source=brevo&utm_campaign=Update%20David%20McBride&utm_medium=email&utm_id=154

2025-12-01 20:00:43 UTC

Batteries are our last best hope to do the energy transition in time
https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2025/12/01/global-grid-scale-bess-deployment-up-38-year-on-year-through-october

2025-11-21 21:39:41 UTC

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"A lot of people will find it frustrating that we’re excluding teens, rather than forcing platforms to be built safer and better for everyone. If you feel that way, too, you’re not alone."

2025-11-21 21:39:35 UTC

Lots of useful advice here, mitigating the disruption to young people;s lives that will be caused by this poorly thought-out measure.
https://theconversation.com/australia-is-about-to-ban-under-16s-from-social-media-heres-what-kids-can-do-right-now-to-prepare-270295

2025-09-16 01:15:02 UTC

Even allowing for a 4:1 ratio in capacity factor, rooftop solar is delivering as much electricity as Dutton's seven nuclear stations would have done, right now and at a tiny fraction of the cost.
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/09/15/australia-rooftop-solar-hits-26-8-gw-as-home-battery-uptake-surges/?
1/2

2025-09-15 09:19:45 UTC

Of all US allies, the Baltic states have done most to increase defence spending in line with Trump's demands. So, he has cut military assistance. Australians who imagine that handing over billions to AUKUS will buy us security are living in a fools paradise. https://www.euractiv.com/news/us-to-cut-military-aid-for-baltic-states/ #auspol

2025-09-10 01:45:06 UTC

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss
Seriously, why does Macron think another centre-right PM, presumably with the same fiscal policy, will succeed where the last one failed.
Appreciate comment from those better informed
https://apnews.com/article/france-macron-prime-minister-sebastien-lecornu-94d75e375872cc3b28de03b4f192388c

2025-09-07 20:55:20 UTC

Well timed, though good luck rather than good management. We need to end reliance on the US in all respects, including defence, digital sovereignty and central role of US dollar #auspol
https://theconversation.com/australia-will-soon-have-its-own-centre-for-disease-control-lets-not-repeat-the-chaos-of-the-us-264475

2025-08-14 00:07:54 UTC

Falling Fertility yields concrete economic benefits (less need to build new housing and infrastructure). Costs are mostly conjectural (young people drive innovation) or reflect outdated economic structures (pension age based on C20 demographics.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2025/06/the-debate-over-falling-fertility-david-bloom

2025-07-30 01:02:46 UTC

EU payments to Trump in trade deal looking less like ransom money and more like a (successful so far) bribe to influence foreign policy. Trump turning on Putin and not resisting recognition of Palestine are payoffs.
When you dealing with a gangster need to keep these distinctions clear.

2025-07-13 01:52:05 UTC

A standard #pronatalist argument is that we need more kids so that there will be someone to look after old people later on. TIL that Australia employs almost as many people in child care (171000) as in aged care (258 000). That doesn't count the work of parents.
1/3

2025-06-30 02:49:59 UTC

Would anyone six months ago have predicted this headline in an establishment journal like Foreign Policy ? Even I assumed it would take Trump years to get to this point #uspol
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/27/trump-harvard-international-students-ceu-hungary-poland-orban/?

2025-06-29 23:52:23 UTC

A "dog bites man" story from the #NYTimes. Apparently, most AI investment is taking place in rich countries. As opposed to investment in housing, car factories, coffee shops etc ? AI isn't creating the divide between Haves and Have-Nots, it's reflecting it.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/23/technology/ai-computing-global-divide.html

2025-06-28 22:21:30 UTC

Me on "cost of living relief". The whole idea of finding prices that people are complaining about and then throwing money at it is a terrible way of addressing our economic problems."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-25/queensland-budget-reactions-cost-of-living-regions-cities/105454240

2025-06-27 04:16:28 UTC

The Morrison government's appalling "Job Ready Graduates" fee structure, maintained under Jason Clare, isn't mentioned but it must be contributing to this disaster #auspol https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jun/13/proposed-macquarie-university-restructure-will-hollow-out-humanities-academics-say-ntwnfb

2025-06-17 06:17:44 UTC

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I don’t think this is true of Gaza, at least as regards civilian casualties.

2025-06-07 18:54:59 UTC

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I conclude that Trump will not willingly give up the presidency except to a trusted family member and that this will continue indefinitely.
3/3

2025-06-07 18:54:54 UTC

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The US Presidency is now a source of essentially unlimited wealth for its holder.
Conversely, being a domestic enemy of the US President (in particular, a hostile ex-president) now risks financial ruin and possibly much worse.
2/3

2025-06-07 18:54:48 UTC

Thinking about the chance of a return to democracy in the US, I have stopped thinking in terms of Republicans vs Democrats. The Trump-Musk brawl and the beginning of “investigations” into Biden has crystallised two thoughts for me
1/3

2025-06-02 08:03:26 UTC

The train I'm in just crossed the border from Spain into France. No announcement and I expect no one else noticed the moment. Freedom to disregard borders is a huge boon to those who have it. Many don't and many more are losing it.

2025-05-27 12:09:28 UTC

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It would be great if EU could add Ukraine and expel/suspend Hungary at the same time

2025-05-23 03:24:31 UTC

Trump's threat to Harvard is a genie that can't be rebottled. Anyone in the US on a student of H1-B visa can lose it because the regime doesn't like your school or employer. Deportation or indefinite detention, maybe extraordinary rendition. If you have an offer from a US uni, reject it now. #uspol

2025-05-13 17:58:29 UTC

Tiny solar-plus-battery kits yield annual savings exceeding hardware cost https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/05/13/tiny-solar-plus-battery-kits-yield-annual-savings-exceeding-hardware-cost/

2025-05-10 00:00:01 UTC

In my little corner of academia we call this the Marschak-Machina triangle, used for representing probability distributions or shares over three outcomes. I'm using it right now to look at ranked-choice (preferential) voting in elections #auspol https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-10/election-results-independents-rising-charts/105267162

2025-05-06 01:28:35 UTC

Join flutracking (and Covid tracking) now| Tracking respiratory illness across Australia and New Zealand https://info.flutracking.net/

2025-05-05 10:30:23 UTC

The LLMentalist Effect: how chat-based Large Language Models replicate the mechanisms of a psychic’s con
https://softwarecrisis.dev/letters/llmentalist/

2025-03-10 10:46:57 UTC

Europeans need to forget about unanimity. If Orban vetoes EU sanctions, remaining 26 should reconvene in the next room, agree that all will impose the sanctions independently but uniformly, and extend the sanctions to anyone, including Orban who violates them (same for Fico)
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/eu-braces-for-hungarian-move-against-russia-sanctions/?utm_source=russia-ukraine-newsletter.beehiiv.com&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=weekend-briefing

2025-03-01 02:50:54 UTC

An important error in this piece, and in lots of estimates of the force required to stop Putin. Russia isn't "producing 1500 tanks a year". Most of that number are refurbished T-62s that may be up to 60 years old. Ukraine has already destroyed Russias front-line army
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/five-minutes-to-midnight-new-look-america-sets-clock-ticking-for-europe-20250228-p5lfu2.html

2025-02-17 06:00:09 UTC

The big divide in global politics is now between those who have, and haven't, realised that (the United States of) America is over. Whatever polity succeeds the Trump dictatorship will need to be rebuilt from the ground up.

2025-02-09 07:46:14 UTC

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Taxes on trade are sales taxes
Corporate profits taxes are part of the income tax system
Wealth taxes are more easily evaded than income taxes

2025-01-27 01:40:09 UTC

Most effective resistance to Trump is going to come from outside US. So many sources of conflict (tariffs, deportations, climate, pandemic policy, human rights, land grabs), and so little to be gained by going along with him. It will be Brexit writ large.

2024-12-28 07:24:12 UTC

In 2020, Australia apparently had a blockchain roadmap. But it seems to have run out of road. Link now goes to a catch-all technology page with no mention of blockchain. Why am I not surprised?
https://www.dfat.gov.au/about-us/publications/trade-and-investment/business-envoy-april-2021-digital-trade-edition/australias-blockchain-roadmap

2024-12-28 03:59:09 UTC

Bernie Madoff's simple Ponzi scheme ran for at least as long as Bitcoin has operated, and would have lasted longer if not for the GFC. The market can stay irrational longer than you (or any short-seller) can stay solvent.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Madoff

2024-12-15 22:16:17 UTC

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Is there a new Covid vax available

2024-12-11 21:08:02 UTC

We should stop describing CCS as "commercially unproven" . It's been proved unworkable and commercially non-viable https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-10/coal-hydrogen-hesc-latrobe-valley-japan-kawasaki/104375024? (via Coalwire)

2024-12-11 09:45:02 UTC

Market capitalisation of crypto $4 trillion, more than all major US financial corps combined. Value of crypto services, legal and illlegal, a few billion per year. Crash will bring down entire financial system.

2024-12-06 06:08:15 UTC

Just sent to my health fund Plan to do this more generally
Dear Medibank
This email encourages linking to Twitter/X, a toxic website full of vile abuse. Following this link would be bad for my mental health and that of any other Medibank member. I urge you to remove it.
Best wishes
John Quiggin

2024-12-05 19:28:48 UTC

Via Adam Tooze, evidence that Russian inflation is understated, and real GDP correspondingly overstated. Key point in support of this: a central bank interest rate of 21% would be untenable with inflation below 10.
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/russias-economic-war-propaganda?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
1/2

2024-12-03 04:00:12 UTC

The world seems like one big grift right now. Trump, Bitcoin, AI, Xitter and so much more #repost

2024-12-02 07:47:37 UTC

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9/9/99 As it happens I wrote about this very bug at the time, in the AFR
"The GPS rollover went flawlessly, except for some obsolete car navigation systems in Japan. As I predicted on July 1, the advent of financial Y2K caused no problems worth reporting, even among the millions of non-compliant small businesses.
*Emboldened by success, I will chance my arm a little further and suggest that the news headlines for the 9th of September will not include widespread computer failures.*
With this experience in mind, we can use the Gartner Group's analysis to conclude that date-related problems in the year 2000 will be about twice as severe as those in 1999. Since twice zero is still zero, it looks as if it is time to start running down those emergency stocks of baked beans. "
Spreadsheets are notorious for hard-to-detect errors including date errors. Mostly fix on failure is the only response.

2024-12-02 04:02:23 UTC

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Gartner predicted at the time that 25 per cent of failures would occur before 1 Jan 2000, reflecting forward-looking calculations for 2000 and after.
Yet nothing much went wrong in 1999, notably at the beginning of the 2000 financial year (1 July 1999) when lots of mainframe systems were still non-compliant. How so?

2024-12-01 23:53:12 UTC

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I don't think it was a hoax. It was a minor problem that morphed into a cultural panic for entirely comprehensible reasons.
As I observed at the time, the incentives for spending a lot of money on a fix, and possibly wasting it, were far stronger than those of riding it out and possibly being wrong.

2024-12-01 21:09:14 UTC

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I was on the board of a government organisation. At my urging we did a big upgrade a bit earlier than optimal rather than searching our existing systems for bugs. IT wanted to debug the microwave IIRC

2024-12-01 19:36:17 UTC

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As I pointed out in another response, the CFC problem was identified by scientists in published peer-reviewed research, then debated at length. And it wasn't until the ozone hole was actually observed that serious action was taken.
Where was the comparable research for Y2K? Anecdotally, some organizations tried putting their clocks forward with mixed results. But nothing (AFAICT) was ever published and subject to serious scrutiny.

2024-12-01 00:57:27 UTC

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I was a denier before it even happened. Happy to match my 1999 predictions against those of any elder geek in the Fediverse
This is paywalled, but you can get the message from the headline and opening para
https://www.afr.com/policy/y2k-bug-may-never-bite-19990902-k9053

2024-11-30 05:17:30 UTC

The AI boom in electricity demand: a multiply recycled myth https://crookedtimber.org/2024/11/30/the-ai-boom-in-electricity-demand-a-multiply-recycled-myth/

2024-11-28 04:00:00 UTC

The world seems like one big grift right now. Trump, Bitcoin, AI, Xitter and so much more #repost

2024-11-23 22:00:54 UTC

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Must end sooner or later. But I don't count on living to see it. Plenty more Trumps in line of succession. #repost
3/3

2024-11-23 22:00:48 UTC

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Protests will be met with massive force, Insurrection Act etc. Dissidents will be harassed and jailed. Elections will be rigged, or inconvenient results disregarded. Third term will be pushed through, one way or another. #repost
2/3

2024-11-23 22:00:43 UTC

Time to admit it. Trump's dictatorship is a fait accompli. Senate Repubs will endorse extremist nominees (or dodge the shame with a recess appointment). Appointees will stack Justice Department, FBI, military with Trumpist thugs. Press will be bought out, or cowed into submission (mostly done). #repost
1/3

2024-11-23 20:18:23 UTC

https://secure.avaaz.org/campaign/en/arrest_netanyahu_loc/?bWmVfab&v=162919&cl=21811084765&_checksum=d0cea0423eb7a0c3ebdc42ead03550ecabd80abaf4d4b0b3b5fe38732ae6eae1

2024-11-09 09:58:50 UTC

The only thing you really need to know about the US elections is that, three times in a row, roughly half of all American voters have chosen to be ruled by one of the worst among them. Not so much a failed state as a failed society.

2024-11-06 06:58:10 UTC

This, too, shall pass

2024-11-05 06:51:20 UTC

If Trump wins, Australia's alliance with the US will be a case of one-way loyalty, the only kind Trump knows. The US will be happy to take our money and military support, but if we have to deal with an aggressor, we'll be on our own.
#AUKUS

2024-10-30 06:00:07 UTC

The end of US democracy: a flowchart https://johnquigginblog.substack.com/p/the-end-of-us-democracy-a-flowchart #repost

2024-10-28 21:00:04 UTC

Essentially a failure of a fragmented market system to deliver the outcomes that would have been easy under integrated public ownership
https://reneweconomy.com.au/energy-regulator-joins-probe-into-reasons-for-lengthy-blackouts-in-storm-hit-broken-hill/

2024-10-27 12:00:22 UTC

It seems as if Israeli government's plan is to keep on killing until everyone who hates them is dead. #repost

2024-10-26 12:00:20 UTC

It seems as if Israeli government's plan is to keep on killing until everyone who hates them is dead. #repost

2024-10-18 00:34:19 UTC

The US just lost a war, and no one noticed #repost https://johnquigginblog.substack.com/p/the-us-just-lost-a-war-and-no-one?utm_campaign=reaction&utm_medium=email&utm_source=substack&utm_content=post

2024-10-15 10:59:46 UTC

Apparently Dutton's house is even more expensive than Albo's. And since we only have a choice of two, Albo is still the workers' champion (plus, his Mum was poorer than Dutton's).

2024-10-09 22:00:32 UTC

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AFAICT, 300 MW reactors fall between two stools - two big to be built in factories, but too small to get the maximum benefit of size economies. #repost
5/5

2024-10-09 22:00:25 UTC

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It's more efficient to make larger reactors, up to the point where they are so large that switching them on or off threatens grid stability. The sweet spot, historically has been 1-1.5 GW. I haven't seen anything to indicate that this has changed. #repost
4/5

2024-10-09 22:00:19 UTC

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That is, compared to older Gen II designs, more of the components are fabricated off-site before being shipped to the site. Small reactors were common early on in the nuclear era, but forgo the economies of size associated with a large boiler (this is basic physics). #repost
3/5

2024-10-09 22:00:14 UTC

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These are typically marketed as Small Modular Reactors, but they aren't designed to be produced in a factory and shipped to the site like the NuScale design. They are modular only in the same way as the large reactors on which they are based. #repost
2/5

2024-10-09 22:00:07 UTC

One of the gaps in discussion of nuclear power is the absence of any evaluation of small conventional reactors, typically 300MW versions of older 1GW designs: BWX, AP300, Rolls-Royce. #repost
1/5

2024-10-09 09:56:07 UTC

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Coal plants are a simple version of the same basic technology (boil water to drive a turbine). Quite a few US plants were built in the 1950s and a handful even before that.But in practice, not many make it past 60 years, because they are costlier to repair and technologically obsolete.
2/2

2024-10-09 09:56:01 UTC

Peter Dutton is claiming that nuclear plants can last 100 years. This is kinda-sorta true, in the same way that people can for live 100 years. Most won’t, but there is no inherent impossibility.
1/2

2024-09-30 04:24:50 UTC

Bulk billing collapsing. But don't worry, we've had two surpluses in a row, so everything is rosy https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-08/medicare-statistics-per-patient-bulk-billing-dashboard-2023-24.pdf

2024-09-18 02:47:27 UTC

Snap! (IMF today and me from 2020)
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2024/09/working-from-home-is-powering-productivity-bloom?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery
https://theconversation.com/have-we-just-stumbled-on-the-biggest-productivity-increase-of-the-century-145104

2024-09-05 22:51:37 UTC

Some guy called Sulzberger in WaPo wailing that Trump is going to establish a dictatorship and muzzle the press.
But I get my political news from NYTimes and the reports there say Trump is fine, just prone to a bit of vulgarity and exaggeration, same as Harris and Walz. Who to believe?

2024-09-03 22:00:55 UTC

Lead buried here: WFH is a working condition equivalent to a significant wage premium for most workers. Return to Office is a vague wish for which employers aren't prepared to pay anything
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/09/australian-employers-want-staff-in-the-office-but-for-many-workers-home-is-where-the-heart-is

2024-08-31 04:21:19 UTC

The RBA is making confusion about inflation and the cost of living even worse https://theconversation.com/the-rba-is-making-confusion-about-inflation-and-the-cost-of-living-even-worse-237241 #repost

2024-08-26 22:24:15 UTC

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I don't like RFK Jr at all, but it is pretty disgraceful that electoral rules can keep candidates with potentially 1o+ % support off the ballot

2024-08-25 06:07:09 UTC

Always amused to see Carbon Capture and Storage described as "new and untested". It's been around for ages and has been throroughly tested, just like alchemy and perpetual motion machines.

2024-08-18 03:48:23 UTC

Depressing set of essays which present a Trump return to power as an ordinary shift in foreign policy. The end of US democracy will matter a lot more than whether Trump pulls the rug on current allies of the US,. The fact is that a Trumpian US will be an enemy, not an ally.
https://interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/trump-redux/#msdynttrid=VpoJCy7x479jR-SsnFya4dsDWh36SAPlPWV0GSGsEhY

2024-08-01 19:54:31 UTC

Start by calling them "Lies" FFS https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/24/us/politics/kamala-harris-falsehoods-political-positions.html