OostLog on Nostr: I find that if you tune out the noise and think about markets at the highest positive ...

I find that if you tune out the noise and think about markets at the highest positive level in an intuitive way, it’s almost always very clear which way Bitcoin is headed against fiat.

2018-19 - fed starts QT, shitcoin mania obviously got overextended, it can only go one way (down).

2020 - Fed balance sheet is expanding, Fed firing on all cylinders, adoption accelerating, it can only go one way (up).

2021/22 - Fed starts QT, Celsius, FTX etc blowing up, it can only go one way (down).

2023-25 - ETFs pick up steam, it can only go one way (up).

2026 - ETFs to grow and grow, QE to restart, it can only go one way (up).

There’s not a pattern, just a few basic drivers. What’s the Fed doing in terms of printing, what does adoption look like and is the crypto market going to shit yes or no.

Also learn to look at the monthly candles, so that wicks like Mar20, Aug24, Nov25 don’t distort your perspective. Fuck the traders and their noise