Open Risk

The open future of risk management

Website: https://www.openriskmanagement.com
Manual: https://www.openriskmanual.org
Academy: https://www.openriskacademy.com
Code: https://github.com/open-risk

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Last Notes

2026-04-27 12:11:12 UTC

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I think the Linux desktop has been reasonably usable for almost a decade now.
The duopoly has cornered the mobile market much more effectively and we have at least "a lost decade", including all the failed projects (Firefox OS, Ubuntu etc.)
And its not even obvious that there is now a clear path forward (e.g Android-based versus pure Linux etc.)
@npub1xkz…mpsw @npub1mvj…jlw0

2026-04-27 07:31:31 UTC

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I have heard of them. And of Ubuntu Touch and Sailfish OS/Jolla etc. A tiny group of enthousiasts probably heard of other options too 🤣. There is simply no comparison. Linux on the desktop is now arguably the dominant option for general purpose computing. Holdouts are those locked on Windows-only games or Apple "creativity" tools. On mobile, the first question people ask: will I brick my phone. The second question: does it run banking apps. Very different level of maturity.

2026-04-27 06:20:15 UTC

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except that doesn't apply to the one device that billions of people now use as a "computer": their mobiles.
While grateful for the gift of Linux, the revolution is still incomplete, the stars must align once more for a second miracle to happen.
And when that transpires, the world will have changed, dramatically 🙏

2026-04-24 12:22:24 UTC

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Oracle invoked the same argument.
Extraordinary times whatever the interpretation.
One possibility is that they don't think its a risky move. How can they be so sure? Only if they know they have a stranglehold on users and can push "AI" in all eventualities.
Another possibility is that they are actually "bust", not literally - as in bankrupt - but in terms of defending their astronomical valuations: the risky bets aim to avoid a massive correction.
Time will tell I suppose...

2026-04-18 14:42:24 UTC

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I am not particularly interested in whether Bluesky itself finds a positive path forward. My take is that surveillance capitalism can only be beaten by a combination of moral stance and widely usable technical tools. What they brought to the table is the atproto protocol and ideas on how to orchestrate services to be used by large numbers of people. Until its clear that these ideas can be safely ignored, are superseded etc. to me it seems important that they get explored, not loathed

2026-04-18 09:05:49 UTC

The schadenfreude and gloating in the #fediverse about the #bluesky outage is indicative of the infantile tribalism that prevails around here. It's pathetic because it indicates a lack of appreciation of the enormity of the challenge of defeating #surveillancecapitalism. In that totally uneven fight, fundamental ideas such as those embedded in #atproto and #activitypub protocols (and maybe others not yet gifted with a hashtag) must be explored as fast as possible and as deeply as possible.
1/

2026-03-28 05:20:31 UTC

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if your calculator burns half of the planet to operate you could get your correctness to 90%. Would that help?

2026-03-25 15:33:57 UTC

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they are of course more than aware of the extraordinary political cover they enjoy. That's why they hire politicians like Nick Clegg to maintain it, that's why they cozied up en masse to the Trump admin etc.
In this respect, current EU "regulation" is toothless, the real pushbacks would be outright bans, break-ups, forced open standards etc. Aggressive, even hostile action, effectively countries saying: we don't like your take on how digital society should be shaped, be gone now.

2026-03-25 15:13:51 UTC

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all true, but they have incredible staying power due to monopoly status. E.g., Meta burned vast billions on VR with nothing to show for it, would have bankrupted a normal company but they simply shrugged and moved on to spending billions on "AI". Their insane valuations also reflect this extraordinary chokehold on basically a large fraction of the world economy.

2026-03-25 12:50:49 UTC

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The private credit discussion
https://www.ft.com/content/742edb09-a856-41ad-aea6-207862cfd952

2026-03-25 11:58:03 UTC

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He mentions the extreme market concentration in US bigtech but doesn't seem to specify some causal chain that could precipitate a financial crisis as a result. The link to private credit has been examined in some depth (I believe it was FT's Alphaville) and was not deemed sizeable enough to become a systemic risk.
One scenario that could bring the house of cards down is changing political winds. Bigtech enjoys total monopoly valuations. Outside the US this status may not persist forever

2026-03-04 10:37:40 UTC

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This asymmetry is not specific to "AI"/LLM but affects all statistical algorithms. In regulated sectors (finance, medicine) human control aims to dampen the "scaling" of bad outcomes.
E.g., algorithms in credit scoring used by banks. Many of the same frictions apply: what data are used, how were they collected, how transparent the model to the client, how to explain outcomes etc.
The main novelty of "AI" is bigtech's insane privilege of no regulation
@npub1ep3…ejg9 @npub1tc9…jjtx

2026-02-12 08:18:31 UTC

The early Web had a quality that has been lost ever since: it was *simple*
Download #httpd , #netscape write some #html by hand and boom, the concept of a networked digital society is born.
It first started going pear shaped with #LAMP . The complexity of a full blown database was not justified for most use cases. As proven decades later by the popularity of #sqlite and #ssg approaches.
The final blow was when #bigtech got into the act. Immense complexity for the simplest things became a moat

2026-02-06 09:12:22 UTC

From own experience, small tip for anybody upgrading #nextcloud and seeing the process stuck in the last step (updating database schema):
It is *really* slow, even for a small / vanilla instance, and does not provide adequate warning to that effect.
Let it run for hours (overnight) before assuming the installation is broken 🤦 and embarking on time-consuming reinstalls...

2026-01-22 08:19:15 UTC

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its not about removing all friction and conflict between people (which is indeed on the utopic side) but eliminating certain types of organized, large scale violence that is supported by ever more lethal tech (which in the end *will* be our undoing).
Its not hopeless because we are already doing it (constraining this behavior) to some extent. Its not difficult to imagine (and historically it was common) to be far more warmongering.
Eliminating organized war is solvable

2025-09-05 09:09:52 UTC

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I never quite grasp the nationalistic argument when coming from a small European country (which applies to all of them when compared to the gigantic Asian countries or the US).
The world has changed. E.g., what do the Norwegians think of the current predicament of Denmark. Or how are they going to achieve digital sovereignty?
The benefit of being within the EU is preserving and shaping a European identity as a precondition for a national identity.
@npub12pw…zvxn

2025-08-22 05:24:02 UTC

In 30 dense minutes @npub1fdr…lvhs summarizes the causes our enshittified digital predicament and suggests some paths that could help escape the 21st Twillight Zone we got ourselves trapped in.
NB: ironically, the video has to be shared on the well known platforms, as there is basically no realistic alternative...
#enshittification
#surveillancecapitalism
#twilightzone
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_Ai-fC-2Bpo

2025-08-14 17:31:01 UTC

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I guess the first thing I would fund if I were a government (🤣) is an in depth study, as objective as possible, of the available options and their pros and cons
GrapheneOS is clearly in the running but at least in my mind there is still the vision of a pure #linux / convergence theme.
Multiple options might be viable, including from scratch. For the visible future this is the most consequential piece of software shaping the lives of billions.
@npub1kwa…e0nj @npub12sq…6w0r

2025-08-14 09:08:53 UTC

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this is a valid discussion no matter which corner of the digital universe we focus on, but priorities are terribly important:
what matters now is not whether goverments fund tools they use (or could use) like #drupal, #nextcloud, #libreoffice, #fediverse servers and so much else
Total control of mobile devices is the Death Star of the Evil Empire.
The equivalent of funding roads, schools and hospitals is an #opensource mobile OS as a universal right for every single citizen.

2025-06-23 15:06:47 UTC

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signal is one of the few platforms that has measurable mainstream adoption. Suggesting to use "something else" is not going to go down well with people that barely got convinced to leave whatsapp 🤣
For them what matters is not how its done but what it achieves (send messages to email accounts with minimal fuss).
Some sort of bridge server-side is one general idea, but it could be even just client-side functionality (like an android email intent).
[@david_chisnall](https://infosec.exchange/@david_chisnall )

2025-06-22 11:26:28 UTC

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securing email with end-to-end encryption is entirely possible https://www.openpgp.org/ so that sounds a bit weak as an argument not to have such a capability.
The more important point is that wide adoption requires interoperability, ideally by propagating "good habbits", but (when appropriate) also being pragmatic...

2025-06-22 10:20:18 UTC

The #signal protocol does not support #email relays but that could be an important additional / optional service:
For people who for whatever reason don't have a signal account/app, for certain archival purposes etc.
In comparison #matrix seems to have bridges to the entire universe 🙂
https://support.signal.org/hc/en-us/articles/360007061352-Does-Signal-work-for-email
https://matrix.org/ecosystem/bridges/

2025-04-25 08:37:30 UTC

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both in risk and opportunity this is Europe's moment. Lets hope it will all turn for the better 🙏

2025-04-03 07:40:38 UTC

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I would not celebrate prematurely. This drastic repositioning of the US economy will unleash enormous shocks around the world before (if) things stabilise into a new normal many years from now. Europe and the EU will have to survive growing social discontent if recession, trade wars and risk aversion create unemployment, inflation, and constrained public finances. If there is a path to safety at all, it will require extremely capable leadership to traverse.🙏

2025-03-31 13:19:07 UTC

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not sure how to cast this into a positive trait rather than "we don't want that" but the imho absolutely most hideous aspect of adtech social is what @npub1p09…m5vl calls "people farming". This is done by algorithms of course, but is catalysed by "influencers". These people explicitly embrace the manipulation paradigm for monetary gain (and they are by now a entire and well trained army).
The challenge is that many people are inately drawn to be "followers" in real life...

2025-03-21 08:41:41 UTC

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... there are also vague ideas like #solarpunk that - while heartwarming and broadly speaking pointing to the right direction - feel very far from a realistic path that will change society any time soon.
There is also the false prophet of the #crypto "revolution" that shows how every new technical possibility will first be abused before (and if) it gets applied towards a good purpose.
The bottom line is that we don't really know what a good digital society looks like.

2025-03-21 08:34:06 UTC

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There is a certain rehashing of past political ideas - a valid starting point, there is nothing really new about the human condition - but the digital era brings unique and extremely powerful novelties to the mix:
Extreme connectivity, ubiquitous algorithms and automation and the representation of literally everything as bits and bytes. Those are attributes that open up genuine possibilities and risks
The #opensource phenomenon is a concrete bottom-up behavior but its not a complete blueprint

2025-03-21 08:18:49 UTC

There is no remotely realistic blueprint for how a democratic, equitable and thriving digital society would look like.
Obviously not the US with its out of control tech oligarchy, nor China with its own variation on the same theme.
But even in Europe, where e.g., historically abundant lip service was paid to "small and medium" firms as the backbone of social stability, there is no serious proposal for how that would look in the digital age.
#digitaltransformation
#democracy
#dataprivacy

2025-02-28 09:49:55 UTC

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there is the #freeourfeeds initiative that will replicate an atproto relay. Subject to technical / economic factors it wil put to rest the (reasonable) fears about bluesky.
My gut feeling is that because of different architectures, the two protocols will give rise to different online exchanges. Bluesky type cathedrals vs #activitypub type community houses.
And much depends on the client software we use - which is a bit stagnant. We could have a common interface to all these.

2025-02-26 09:48:56 UTC

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Mammals won by developing drastically different biology (and a bit of luck from asteroid impact, a deus-ex-machina).
The breakthrough for #opensource will come when we develop apps, tools or services that are desirable by the mainstream but not easy replicable by big tech.
This requires thinking out of the box (not emulating) about user-centered needs, but also building on the unique possibilities of a vast interoperable code base.
And of course funding for such visions (the famous asteroid)

2025-02-26 09:40:31 UTC

How do you achieve mass adoption for alternative #foss platforms that are human-centric and focused on empowering users rather than tech oligarchs?
The strategy that will *not* work: trying to be better dinosaurs than the dinosaurs. In other words emulating proprietary big tech (X, but free) in terms of functionality and features.
From #bluesky and #signal, to #libreoffice and #nextcloud and many other #opensource projects we know that achieving modest success is possible but difficult
1/

2025-02-25 20:34:05 UTC

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thats spelled "Prodromou" I believe 🙂

2025-02-18 13:40:13 UTC

There are many visionary, highly unique "next-gen" #activitypub platforms that go beyond the tired "social media" paradigm, but they seem to struggle with traction / resources.
#funkwhale and #mobilizon are good examples with ~100 or less servers and infrequent releases.

2024-12-09 08:37:54 UTC

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the reality is that mastodon (as the most developed of the fediverse/activitypub platforms) has missed the boat of the Twitter/X decline. Bluesky's growth has slowed somewhat, but it has already gathered critical mass in various influential communities that mastodon never did.
The important issue going forward is whether there are lessons learned and what the reaction will be. After decades of stagnation the shape of online interactions is now less fixed.

2024-11-12 15:13:22 UTC

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no crystal ball but I doubt we'll see an infinite sequence of enshittification.
We had a situation where vast numbers of "important" people, institutions etc. who *should know better* have been implicitly endorsing platforms with ingrained evil values.
Impishly they assumed nothing can go wrong, TINA, obliged to go where the masses are etc.
The implosion of twitter is piercing this make-believe bubble.
Difficult to see the charade continuing (but I have been wrong before 😅

2024-11-10 22:16:49 UTC

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#mastodon as the prime #activitypub server emulating twitter has been around for much longer than the #bluesky / #atproto venture.
Yet the later has significantly higher momentum (it is better engineered and there is confluence of demographics (US), political events and centralized governance that more effectively targets twitter refugees).
The #fediverse on the other hand is more genuine "web 3" but since no other server type has seen adoption this is still rather theoretical.

2024-11-08 08:42:23 UTC

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To me its all still quite confusing. Activitypub seems quite a bit less prescriptive, a lot of important details are "left to implementation". The Mastodon server network is one such fully developed architecture but quite different designs are compliant, e.g., single account "instances" like gotosocial. Somebody even suggested that the entire activitypub pattern could be implemented over the atproto protocol etc.