FTB

Full Time #Bitcoin: Node operator, miner, BTC only angel investor/VC, optech reader, sat stacker, freak, dirtbag, pleb, resident TSLA shill, stackchain 593 1754

Public Key

npub1h8z77d0mqx8nreltfxzhw5vgv2d2yvfvn7p8nz6ugtafk9ly9tas4zta38

NIP-05 Address

ftb@bitcoinpark.com

Profile Code

nprofile1qqstn300xhasrre3ul45npth2xyx9x4zxykflqne3dwy975mzljz47cpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dsutghlx

Publishing to

saltivka.org

relay.damus.io

nos.lol

Author Public Key

npub1h8z77d0mqx8nreltfxzhw5vgv2d2yvfvn7p8nz6ugtafk9ly9tas4zta38

Show more details

Last Notes

2026-02-09 13:47:02 UTC

- reply

I think it’s probably over after that. Too big of a V in the chart, but we’ll see!

2026-02-05 16:42:02 UTC

I'm now completely convinced that this entire drawdown - which may have been started by API problems on Binance, but if it hadn't have been that it would have been something else - is all about liquidating bitcoin backed loans.
It's a terrible incentive sitting out there in the market. A HUGE pot of bitcoin that is suddenly up for grabs at LOWER prices. And this world is full of rich people who want our coins.
If you needed liquidity above $100k you had two options, sell or take a loan out. Of course there were lots of companies eager to sell you the dream of getting liquidity without selling your bitcoin, unfortunately that's all that is, a dream.
We've been sold a lie that bitcoin is the best possible collateral because it's liquid 24/7! Well sure that makes it amazing...FOR THE LENDER! For the borrower it just puts a target on your back.
You thought you were a hardcore hodler, but you just posted your coins for sale at $58k! And guess what? There are buyers who want that deal!
We're going to go down until every reasonably accessible bitcoin being held as collateral is freed up and sold to someone that ain't one of us! If you avoided taking out a loan, congrats! If somehow you have some dry powder now, amazing, you deserve these cheap sats.
If you're looking at liquidation even anywhere in the 50's, I'd consider cutting your losses and closing your loan with collateral. If you can get your margin call price into the 40's I would hope you would be safe, but who knows. There are no rules in a truly free market.

2025-06-06 19:58:27 UTC

- reply

And here’s a more bullish version:
1st I asked Grok to figure out the average daily return for Metaplanet since they adopted the bitcoin treasury strategy, this came out to just over 1.4% per day.
2nd I asked Grok to assume that trend would continue for the next 100 trading days. Stock price at the end of the 100 days assuming trend continues: 6961 JPY or $48.03
3rd assume they issue the 555M shares linearly over those 100 trading days (5.55M shares per day)
4th assume BTC increases from $105k to $150k linearly over those 100 trading days.
5th give me the total BTC they would own at the end of the 100 trading days: 133,188 BTC
6th tell me what date 100 TSE trading days is from today: October 1st or 2nd
7th give me a new mNAV/share price chart:
https://blossom.primal.net/2334fd9f1130e75bf3c8c52c66d285ff504523f397c6cce3cf543b2e91d5af16.jpg

2024-11-26 22:29:22 UTC

Regarding the QQQ snapshot on Friday, it appears unfortunately that Saylor fucked up, and now they're going to go in with a much lower market cap than they could have. Of course this is all in hindsight and there were a lot of unknowable things that happened between last Monday and now so I'm not throwing stones, it'll all be fine, but it could have been better!
After last Mondays ATM announcement it was pretty clear to see he was going to keep pushing hard at least through to this snapshot if not for as long as the bull market rages on. We had two consecutive weeks of increasing ATM usage both at about 7% of the weekly trading volume. So going into this Monday I and many others saw that the volume last week was insane, and we imagined that it was certainly possible that another 7% of that volume was ATM usage. For whatever reason it seems that wasn't the case. In fact as long as their liquidity keeps rising they should be able to keep increasing the ATM's maybe linearly...or maybe parabolically.
My best guess is they were waiting until Friday to really hit the ATM hard in preparation for weekend stacking. Instead they were caught off guard by the Citron hit piece which combined with the known convert shorting really turned the momentum 180 degrees. At that point they either hit the ATM to try and get what they still could, or more likely they had done a couple billion before then and we're saving the remaining 5 for Thursday/Friday which then got cancelled with the momentum shift. I still believe the 100k coin buy was the plan, but the plan got curtailed.
So now we're about 37% off the highs and the snapshot is in 1.5 trading days, and obviously momentum is bearish as hell. So my bear case is they'll be lucky to close Friday above $300/share. I guess my base case is we stay around here, maybe creep up to $375. But there is still a bull case...
What could they do to try and shift momentum in a hurry in time for Friday? Well barring some major bullish announcement outside of their control all they can do is announce another buy! Volume was still very high over the last two days, and I could easily see Saylor continuing to tap the ATM hard and making a surprise announcement tomorrow morning and/or Friday morning. Even if it doesn't cause the momentum to shift it'll still likely increase the market cap by increasing the share count (as long as we stay flat or even go down less than the issuance). So almost 50M shares have traded in the last two days, I'd say the bull case is 7% of that sold by Saylor (3.5M shares), maybe at an average price of $400 is $1.4B or about 15,000 bitcoin. Not bad for a midweek smash buy.
At the end of the day their strategy does not rely on getting into any indexes. It's just extra fuel on the fire. More fuel, bigger fire, but this sucker is burning bright no matter what.
Anyway, I feel somewhat compelled to bridge the bitcoiner and MSTR worlds, which used to be one and the same, but very much no longer are. Hope someone got something out of this.
Disclosure: LONG AF

2024-11-26 13:44:38 UTC

- reply

My plan as well, however I don’t intend to do that until they’re a multi trillion dollar company 😉

2024-11-25 14:58:13 UTC

- reply

Hard to imagine, but I think he’s just going to go harder and harder. The 210/210 may be next….

2024-11-25 04:18:19 UTC

- reply

The music stops when fiat dies. There are 3 phases.
Phase one: acquire as much bitcoin as possible while it’s available for sale in large quantities.
Phase two: continue to borrow money (speculative attack) to buy back the stock further increasing bitcoin per share.
Phase three: post hyperbitcoinization. Become Berkshire Hathaway type conglomerate, buying real productive businesses that are able to produce an sats/flow (aka are profitable in Bitcoin) and continue to increase Bitcoin per share that way.
Forever Laura!

2024-11-24 02:21:06 UTC

I do believe we have entered the so called suddenly phase. What’s changed, well believe it or not, it’s not the ETF’s, or the options on top of them. It’s not the red wave, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, or the supposed nation state announcement happening at the Bitcoin Mena conference. All of that is insanely bullish and absolutely fuel on the fire. But we’re in the suddenly phase because of MicroStrategy.
If you’ve been following $MSTR as closely as I and others in the MSTR True North community have this won’t be news to you, but I know many of my humble sat stacking pleb, freak, and dirtbag friends don’t realize that the MicroStrategy strategy has evolved and Saylor has pushed the pedal straight through the floorboard. The past 4 years he’s been building a flywheel, and now it’s finally spinning.
If you want a full breakdown I can’t recommend listening to Saylor’s presentation during the most recent earnings call enough, he put all the cards on the table. Laid bare everything (and more) that the MSTR community had pieced together over the past months.
I’ll try and keep it simple, but the 21/21 plan was the starting gun, it was the announcement that there were no longer any training wheels on and that the flywheel was spinning up. Since then the company has issued 7% of the weekly trading volume via ATM offerings each week. The more liquidity the stock is trading + the more the stock goes up = the more $ that 7% has gotten them = the larger their bitcoin purchases have been. Now this has only happened for two weeks so far, but this past week they were the most liquid stock in the entire stock market. We’ll find out likely on Monday or Tuesday if he’s made it 3 in a row. My guess is it’s highly likely and if so we’ll see a ~100,000 bitcoin buy probably announced on Monday morning. 70 billion funded from ATM sales and 30 billion from convertible debt. It could be 200,000 next week and 400,000 the week after that. Higher stock price = more liquidity = more ATM sales = more bitcoin = higher stock price = more liquidity….get it? There are not nearly enough bitcoin available below $100k to keep this up. Things are accelerating extremely rapidly. This supposed sell wall is an ant hill in the face of the kind of buying MSTR is doing.
This is the main gist of the story but if you’d like to dive deeper there’s plenty more to it. Upcoming index inclusions (nitrous in the flywheels engine), convertible debt, other future debt instruments. It all points to an undeniable reality. MicroStrategy is now single handedly forcing the suddenly phase (aka hyperbitcoinization) to begin. Add on all of the other massively bullish catalysts on the horizon and it’s quite clear, DON’T SELL YOUR BITCOIN!

2024-11-20 13:35:05 UTC

Good morning everyone, meetup location has been changed to BarWhiskey in downtown Jefferson City!
We will have the entire back room available from 6-8. Sorry for the last second notice.
https://www.meetup.com/mid-mo-meetup-group/events/304529715/
@npub1qny…95gx help me out with a retweet! Don’t want to strand the freaks!

2024-10-31 00:43:29 UTC

Every single one of you needs to watch the MSTR earnings call and pay attention to it very carefully. Please.

2024-09-07 15:02:34 UTC

- reply

Lol, we all have our moments. Don’t worry I ain’t never gonna stop stacking sats

2024-09-06 15:25:31 UTC

- reply

I'm nothing if not self aware for whatever that's worth.

2024-09-06 15:14:27 UTC

This is a rough cycle. Mentally as far as I'm concerned we haven't had a a bull market since 2017. 7 years of meaningless chop ....as always there's light at the end of the tunnel, but just when I think we're reaching the end, we round another corner.
Not sure if other hodlers are like me, but I find it difficult to live in the moment. I do my best, but it's almost as if my life is on hold until we have a raging bull market. There are places I want to travel, a home I want to build, but instead I'm stacking and waiting, and the years are going by.
My first child was born around the last bull market, I've spent the majority of their life obsessed with bitcoin, stacking sats, and waiting for our "real life" to start. I still think I've been a good husband and father, but I know I could be better. Unable to ever fully be present, that nagging hope of a better future always in the back of my mind.
As bitcoin cascades down today in yet another liquidation wick, I can't help but reflect on the past. Perhaps we're all destined to be Moses, wandering the desert for 40 years, the imperfect saviors of our individual tribes. We'll be remembered, but only our children will ever reach the promise land. Could be worse I suppose. I still don't think that's very likely, I think we very well might be rounding that final corner of the tunnel, but I'm trying to come to terms with the fact that that might not be true. Perhaps there's another 33 years of wandering.

2024-09-05 23:09:09 UTC

@npub1qny…95gx
https://m.primal.net/KgBt.jpg

2024-04-24 19:33:43 UTC

Guess they weren’t spooks after all

2024-03-13 11:55:54 UTC

- reply

https://x.com/punterjeff/status/1767795850766700685?s=46&t=V27jJ5Ixsb9ZMB1SrtddYA
Watch this if you’re curious where this might be going. Staggering.

2024-03-13 04:27:57 UTC

Anyone posting a lot about MSTR on Nostr? Main thing keeping me on Twitter these days.
In case you haven’t heard MSTR is not just a bitcoin proxy, it’s potentially in the early innings of an epic squeeze that’s going to make GME look like a wet fart.
Bitcoin + low float + cheap debt + SP500 inclusion + short squeeze + gamma squeeze + many other things. Completely unique situation in market history.
Obligatory: most people should just hold spot bitcoin, this is overly risky and degenerate.

2024-03-06 04:37:25 UTC

- reply

On a long enough time frame it’s too damn complicated for me to fully wrap my head around.
I.e. MSTR can become a fiat black hole and buy every bitcoin available on the market….but then what? If there are no coins available, then they can start buying back their stock, shrink the float even more, $/share keeps going up. But then what?
I suppose all your models are destroyed and bitcoin goes to the moon, the dollar dies, mstr is the largest company on earth.
Government pressure surely could stop Saylor from continuing the plan I suppose. But that doesn’t stop bitcoin…but hence why people going all in MSTR are foolish. Trusted third parties are security holes and there are a lot of trusted third parties in tradfi.
That game is rigged and I will not be surprised one iota if they try and take MSTR behind the shed the same way they did GME.

2023-11-30 15:02:25 UTC

Prior to this buy $MSTR held 158,400 #bitcoin and had 14,221,000 shares outstanding. Giving each share equivalent ownership of ~.01113 BTC.
Now there are 15,410,588 shares outstanding with each having the equivalent ownership of ~.01132 BTC.
This is a +1.7% increase in the bitcoin holdings per share.
This is NOT dilution. Few understand!
https://x.com/saylor/status/1730226879125160426?s=46&t=V27jJ5Ixsb9ZMB1SrtddYA

2023-11-08 03:37:22 UTC

- reply

Tell me everything

2023-11-07 17:52:15 UTC

- reply

Check out Icon post bull market.
Icon4x4.com

2023-07-28 02:42:22 UTC

- reply

All while using Coinbase as their own custodian. Wild

2023-07-23 19:30:43 UTC

🫣 #note1usr…t5pm

2023-03-13 00:38:49 UTC

Bitcoin ripping despite the three most prominent bitcoin friendly banks shutting down within a week. Honey badger don’t care never been more obvious.