NBS

https://noauthority.social/@nbs

No BullShit
Baron of the Trading Floor
Options (Volatility) Trader in Chiraq
Bitcoin

Public Key

npub1p5e6k659f9td3uk8pq7tl639wh4rncz3gwwtf5jnhw5wvcz7807s3u7nm3

NIP-05 Address

nbs_at_noauthority.social@momostr.pink

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsq6vatd2z5j4kc7trss09lagjht63eupg588956ffmh28xvp0rhlgprpmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumt0d4hhxarj9ecxjmnt08n2zn

Publishing to

relay.momostr.pink

Author Public Key

npub1p5e6k659f9td3uk8pq7tl639wh4rncz3gwwtf5jnhw5wvcz7807s3u7nm3

Show more details

Last Notes

2025-11-16 06:33:25 UTC

I think it’s time for me to hang it up on NAS. It’s been a good run, but frankly since retiring earlier this year I don’t listen to the No Agenda show nor do I use Mastodon or any social media much anymore
I’m going to delete my account in a few days. I’m still trading my own money in retirement, but only for a few hours a week on average and I don’t have time to write a blog about it
Send me a DM if you want my contact info, many of you who I’m close with or know IRL already have it

2025-10-15 19:48:25 UTC

Highly recommend going to your local antique stores and try to find underpriced silver shit.
I frequent a dozen or so shops here, all with cabinets of various silver jewelry or dining pieces. None of these items have been adjusted higher since I moved here when silver was half this price.
I bought 31oz today of various silver for about 1/4 to 1/2 of current spot prices. Pawn shops will buy it for spot or 10% less than spot. Basically 2x or 3x what I paid for it.

2025-10-09 16:44:36 UTC

Remember when the reverse repo balances were going to crash the market in 2022/23?
When Tom Luongo or whatever his name and similar doomers were fearmonging about this or rates or Eurodollar or whatever else?
Yeah I remember. S&P has almost doubled since then. It’s almost like doomers shouldn’t doom about shit they don’t understand.
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/115/345/204/010/346/718/original/f29215faa4c07d7f.jpeg

2025-09-23 04:45:46 UTC

Explains a lot
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/115/251/789/299/729/938/original/24b3688e5fba3897.jpeg

2025-09-17 20:23:16 UTC

- reply

Or the 50bps cut that we deserved

2025-09-17 20:11:38 UTC

- reply

1) Printed money
2) Turbo PRINTED money
3) Down money from yesterday's highs small. I closed it still for a profit from where i bought it 3.5 months ago, I'll take it
Crazy, the 99% of the world predicting a downtick in risk assets and an uptick in volatility were wrong. It's almost like a crowded trade is crowded for a reason: fear begets fear
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/115/221/453/255/979/629/original/53f104cd291fde14.mp4

2025-09-16 20:25:29 UTC

Me getting ready for FOMC day tomorrow
Positions:
1) Short SOFR Z5/Z6 calendar (long Z5 short Z6). 75bps of cuts priced, if they cut 50bps tomorrow instead (only a 4% chance but low enough to bet on), Z5Z6 goes to 50bps. Almost a free bet with low odds and extremely low risk
2) Short S&P vol, mostly 1 month via VXX puts, will put on some VX Oct futures as well for intraday
3) Long UB ZB ZN still from previous posts, will reduce this tomorrow in all likelihood regardless of the performance
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/115/215/779/792/881/013/original/5a35baabae3fd5c1.mp4

2025-07-22 12:30:17 UTC

Me: “Just buy bitcoin”
Friend A: “But muh privacy”
Friend B: “Waiting for dip”
Friend C: “Issa scam”
Friend D: “But muh staking account”
Friend E: “This shitcoin is the NEXT Bitcoin”
Friend G: “It’s too hard to buy”
Etc…
These situations have taken place at any point in the past 5 years or so. They continue to happen. My friends who bought Bitcoin are richer, and my friends who didn’t are poorer and still saying the same things.
Lesson in that, innit

2025-07-18 19:23:42 UTC

- reply

Happy Friday, innit

2025-07-18 19:23:00 UTC

Can’t celebrate yet as I’m driving down to Orlando Sunday to pick it up Monday, but I just bought a 2019 Porsche 911. 7 speed manual, T trim so has all the sport goodies
Love my Lexus GX but it’s a bit too sterile and bloated with tech. Feels like a mom car. Going to get a 90s Land Cruiser for my outdoors car
Life is short, buy the Porsche
Will throw up some pics once I pick it up Monday

2025-07-15 19:31:11 UTC

Lmao. Embarrassing.
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/114/858/908/949/655/710/original/06da49d6d968ab5a.jpeg

2025-07-11 18:08:20 UTC

Spoke with a college friend of mine, accountant, who wanted to learn coding. I pointed him to a few resources as well as AI for help, said he had never used AI tools. So I polled my other friends, outside of my professional sphere. Bit surprised by those results, so I’m polling here.
Have you used an AI tool in any professional capacity? Not asking if it helped, just curious on usage.

2025-07-11 11:41:00 UTC

- reply

Nobody can accurately predict the price at a given point in time with any free market asset. Any predictions for such should be ignored and/or made fun of, as the person making the prediction is a clown.
I’ve traded free market assets for over 10 years, 8 of those professionally, every trader I’ve ever worked with will tell you the same: nobody knows with 100% confidence where prices of anything will be at a specific future date.

2025-07-10 23:08:21 UTC

“Check this out. $450 Million worth of Bitcoin shorts liquidated in the past 60 minutes. It went from $112k to $116k in like 3 minutes. Wild bro.”
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/114/831/450/185/192/138/original/62b99b6c79562657.jpeg

2025-07-10 21:42:49 UTC

Remember when in 2022 people on NAS were calling for bitcoin to go to zero? When it was like $18k? It’s $116.3k and those people are pretty quiet now.
I ‘member

2025-07-07 15:53:34 UTC

"There is no Epstein list"
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/114/812/755/186/139/463/original/cfc534342ec373c3.jpeg

2025-06-28 00:00:08 UTC

Not sure if anyone here watches FishTank, but this has been a crazy season so far.
The crew/contestants just got kicked out of the Season 1 house by the police/state, and now the new location they have been filming is being raided by the police.
It seems to be in Rhode Island, so just leftist state bullshit, but much of this was set on by some Reddit nerd apparently.
Funny to watch, what a shitshow

2025-03-03 21:53:31 UTC

- reply

What a hilarious 24hours. This move has entirely reversed after the market was not pleased with the inclusion of shitcoins in the reserve, among other reasons. Namely, Trump did not elaborate on this today during his press conference.

2025-03-02 17:11:59 UTC

- reply

Okay so short it, your opinion is worthless if you're not willing to trade on it. Why should I care what you think if you have no skin in the game?
I've over tripled my investment while you've been telling me it's going to zero. So I don't care what you think unless you're willing to put money behind it.

2025-03-02 17:09:00 UTC

“If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.”
-Satoshi Nakamoto
I think of this quote when I see the same people from 2022 (when BTC was $16k) reply to my BTC posts in 2025 (when BTC is $91k) about how it's going to zero.
In my line of work, if you're that wrong about an asset you get fired, go broke, and you're a laughing stock among fellow traders. Some people don't put their money where their mouth is and it shows.
Pro tip: ignore those people

2025-03-02 17:00:43 UTC

- reply

I remember you telling me in 2022 similar opinions, when it was $15k. You should short it, otherwise see this toot: https://noauthority.social/@nbs/114093903598063009

2025-03-02 16:57:00 UTC

- reply

Yeah retards on here have been telling me from $7k BTC in 2020 that it's worthless, all the way up to $108k BTC.
I used to try and convince people, but some people can't be helped. Have fun staying poor, as they say. Lol

2025-03-02 16:38:02 UTC

Trump posts on Truth Social about a "Crypto" strategic reserve, bitcoin and shitcoins moon.
Albeit these assets have had a rough week, so this rally is just reclaiming some of that selloff.
BTC up 4.3%
XRP up 33%
SOL up 21%
ADA up 70%
All of that just today, in the past few hours.
I only caught the BTC and SOL moves because ADA is embarrassing and I just forget to buy XRP. Anyway, happy Sunday folks
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/114/093/799/824/286/585/original/12535417a459a4d6.png

2025-02-24 14:29:10 UTC

One aspect of this job I will miss: getting random bottles of wine from my trading counterparties.
I think this stuff is pretty good actually too, usually they send some very mediocre bottles.
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/114/059/335/992/386/429/original/ba08fdd9971a9d85.jpeg

2025-02-22 00:58:14 UTC

BREAKING NEWS:
The hacker behind the $1.5bln ByBit hack has been identified as Samis Hydulski, an infamous Eastern European cyber criminal and well-known hacker.
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/114/044/822/570/253/361/original/e1552f736c74e1e1.jpeg

2025-02-13 21:30:34 UTC

New US health care policy just dropped!
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/998/706/725/949/412/original/5d99ac754446f9b7.jpeg

2025-02-13 19:57:39 UTC

Why do British people pronounce "Hamas" as Ham-Ass?

2025-02-03 17:22:56 UTC

Trade war summarized
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/941/110/595/316/020/original/269ec21383b4395f.jpeg

2025-02-02 00:29:43 UTC

Sure, going to NA meetups is cool for seeing friends and meeting new people. But in Chicago it’s also an avenue to get a coffee hookup.
Shoutout to Eli the Coffee Guy, really nice guy and a small business genius. Can’t wait to try these out IN THE MORNING!
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/931/463/287/009/018/original/3c0f5d295a3027f6.jpeg

2025-02-01 00:30:18 UTC

John Rogers, former Senior Adviser to the Federal Reserve, has been arrested for giving trade secrets to China.
We need to start executing these fuckers or else this will not stop. Money corrupts people, especially weak fucks like this guy.
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/925/798/529/938/348/original/d0b8550e8dc0665e.png

2025-01-30 16:15:44 UTC

What better way to spend a Saturday than socializing with the under-socialized and over-informed?
NA meetup this Saturday for the Chicago slaves, I will be there a bit after 2pm. Come by and say hi, should have 10 or more people there, 9 already RSVP’d and a few non-RSVP’s showing up as well.
Re-toot or you’re lame and will have bad luck in the stonk market this year.
https://noagendameetups.com/event/to-the-best-of-my-ability-meetup/

2025-01-29 01:50:03 UTC

- reply

Shingle manufactures will probably do well if new construction costs continue to rise. More demand for quality homes, more demand for quality roofs, etc. Maybe try and find some quality homebuilder companies, long those, versus shorting the ones that build this shit.
Otherwise short bonds if you think rates keep rising, maybe try to find a mortgage bond ETF and short that. Should correlate with rates going up, but I'd have to look at historical data to be sure.

2025-01-25 19:59:57 UTC

Ice fishing weekend on Thumb Lake in northern Michigan this weekend.
Caught a dozen or so small perch, lots of fun
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/890/766/960/598/573/original/047553544c0b8e4a.jpeg
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/890/767/138/581/652/original/5348a7752cba7982.jpeg

2025-01-22 02:38:08 UTC

- reply

Absolutely true, planes make folks retarded

2025-01-19 14:20:05 UTC

- reply

Sold most of this for $67-$70, holding onto a tiny balance now. I’ll take a 7x return in 24 hours.
Happy Sunday

2025-01-18 15:13:36 UTC

- reply

Tim Dillon said it best
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/850/004/549/991/630/original/a42fb184ea81021d.mp4

2025-01-18 15:09:03 UTC

- reply

Official contract wallet: 6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN
Don’t get scammed and buy the wrong one.

2025-01-18 15:08:35 UTC

Trump’s team launched an official meme coin yesterday on Solana.
While I think this is dumb as fuck, I bought some (around $9.20 last night). It is now trading $28.13, and I have a feeling that it keeps ripping.
You don’t have to believe in something to make money on it. Buy shit that will go up, I don’t care what it is. Trump launching a meme coin is almost guaranteed to pump for at least a few days, so I jumped onboard.
No clue when I’m selling, but could be fun to trade this weekend.

2025-01-18 02:23:47 UTC

- reply

Never a bother, my dude.
Enjoy the long weekend

2025-01-18 02:20:30 UTC

- reply

Looks like they’ve divested and no longer own 5% of Tesla according to Bloomberg.
Sorry for the delay, one of those fucking weeks.
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/846/964/715/220/700/original/ad3eec6a5e452b46.jpeg

2025-01-16 00:11:17 UTC

Monster day for almost all assets
Risk assets up. Gold up. Bonds up. Volatility… crushed.
Markets are funny: we’re all watching the same data which is manufactured anyway, and we’re sending prices higher and lower based on what the manufactured data is versus what the everyone else expected it to be.
Interesting to see food costs coming down in some products though which lended to a lower print today. Still waiting for that big crash I keep hearing about though.
Just buy assets and chill.
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/835/132/044/715/675/original/eaa95118c1eb760a.png

2025-01-09 01:25:09 UTC

Just when I thought I was out… they pulled me back in
I plan on “retiring” in March after my profit share gets paid out, but a friend of mine connected me with a friend of his about another trading job. Fully remote opportunity, freedom to trade whatever I want, small fund so small business vibe (no DEI or corporate lame shit), I get ridiculous equity in the fund, and they’re already profitable. And after a 2hr call today, they said they’d match my current pay to get me to work for them.
Fuck
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/795/782/294/106/771/original/82ad2ab84a392062.jpeg

2025-01-06 18:41:08 UTC

BREAKING: LIVE shot of Justin Trudeau resigning as Canadian Prime Minister
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/782/873/408/056/977/original/8d7e4297d758910f.jpeg

2024-12-31 23:23:40 UTC

Happy New Year, folks!
Champagne is overrated, picked up a special bottle of bourbon to celebrate a good year. Almost went for the rye, but this find was too good to pass up.
2025 will be a good one!
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/750/009/658/244/317/original/3b0a2b8473d72790.jpeg

2024-12-27 05:05:49 UTC

- reply

I take your takes regardless of BAC as truth without fact-checking, because I know you’re one of the good ones.
Merry Christmas, my dude. Thank you for your service

2024-12-27 04:35:16 UTC

- reply

Ah yes of course @npub1gx2…4lmh has already explained this
Thanks, I’m catching up now

2024-12-27 04:34:20 UTC

- reply

Lmao amazing

2024-12-27 04:32:49 UTC

- reply

https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/722/914/742/594/476/original/65237c1392c20e38.jpeg

2024-12-27 04:24:52 UTC

- reply

Which one is retarded? Or are the both retarded? And have they always have been?

2024-12-27 04:21:25 UTC

Hi, republican voter here.
I’ve spent the past four days nearly 100% offline enjoying Christmas with my family and not getting pissed off at mainstream media headlines, but apparently now we hate Elon and Vivek.
Can someone give me a TLDR on what happened and how this isn’t just click-bait bullshit?
Thanks.

2024-12-25 00:55:46 UTC

Reminder for those traders out there who made money this year: donate some of your profits to your favorite charity.
I started professionally trading 9 years ago, and I’ve donated a Thanksgiving dinner and a Christmas donation to Mercy Home in Chicago every year. If you have the means, pass it forward. Mercy Home in Chicago is a good one if you don’t know who to donate to, but just donate something.
If you had a good year and don’t donate some of it, you’re gay.

2024-12-23 20:34:25 UTC

- reply

Yeah I’m not sure about the qualified accounts. Like you said, I also keep it all in a simple brokerage just so I can easily utilize the tax losses if I want them. I keep it mostly simple, except one off-shore account I have for some private equity dividend stuff which is a nightmare.
I’m also not a financial advisor lol, just a lowly trader with his series 57 and 4. My accountant in fact would suggest people probably don’t listen to my advice.

2024-12-23 20:20:20 UTC

- reply

My language was a bit generic. My “retirement” account is just a separate sub-account within my primary brokerage account. It’s not an IRA or any special designation, I keep it all under one account so I can use the tax losses across any sub-account

2024-12-23 20:13:48 UTC

- reply

In short: it’s a grey area. If they’re exactly the same, it’s hard to argue. If they’re not exactly the same, I’ve been doing it for years with no issue.
This article talks about it in a bit more depth: https://www.investopedia.com/news/etf-open-secret-theyre-tax-loophole/

2024-12-23 18:04:52 UTC

End of the year is coming up, be sure to harvest any tax losses where possible.
I've been sitting on a shit TLT position in the retirement account, and it's been a rough year for bonds. I use Schwab, so I sold TLT to get the tax loss and bought SCHQ with the proceeds from the TLT sale. SCHQ is effectively the same thing as TLT, so my bond position is unchanged but I've captured the tax loss.
There are many similar enough ETFs out there to do the same for nearly any position you have on.

2024-12-21 14:43:46 UTC

- reply

Yeah. They’re quite concerned about their health with respect to the common cold, but not with respect to heart disease or the myriad of health issues obesity causes.

2024-12-21 14:37:38 UTC

Airport observation: 95% of the masked people I see are morbidly obese women. Pretty ironic.

2024-12-20 02:17:44 UTC

Tomorrow is my last day before my Christmas vacation begins. After these past few days, I fucking need it.
Two back to back 14 hour days at work, 9 of which were market hours so insanely high stress. I was short about 3k Jan straddles worth of vol yesterday at the close, and I closed it all out today. Massive day for the good kids, as they say. Didn’t stop trading all day.
Noticed I’m starting to get more than a few grey hairs come in, which at 31 suggests I should probably retire next year.
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/682/736/033/553/429/original/1139eadf2db3150a.jpeg

2024-12-19 02:09:17 UTC

real
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/677/051/488/589/291/original/7bc7d0992561f6ca.jpeg

2024-12-19 01:40:47 UTC

"Markets take the stairs up and the elevator down"
Some context: 1PM today FOMC cuts rates 25bps which was expected, but the Fed's dot plot and Powell commentary were not expected. So what's a dot plot?
The FOMC dot plot charts the future path of interest rates as voted on by the members of the FOMC. 1 dot = 1 voting member. This plot therefore provides additional insight to the market about where all FOMC members stand in terms of the future path of rate cuts/hikes.
Continued...
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/676/901/004/542/800/original/98a43aa3f28c086f.png

2024-12-18 21:34:31 UTC

- reply

Boy was I wrong. I’ll write up more on this later, but this turned out to be an insane day.
Long story short: the Fed came out significantly more hawkish than anyone expected, meaning less optimistic about rate cuts next year. No relief from Powell during the press conference, so the market just dumped.
Volatility exploded. Puts that were trading 50 cents in the morning closed in some cases at $25. Insane moves, and many people (myself included) were short risk puts. Fortunately I hacked early

2024-12-18 14:14:08 UTC

FOMC meeting today.
Market pricing nearly 100% chance of a rate cut, up from ~58% just a month ago. It will likely be a slow morning up until the announcement and the market will be a bit jittery during the press conference at 1:30 CST. Good day to trade the evening session if you’re playing at home.
Otherwise the Santa rally is likely to continue through the rest of the year. Good luck out there.
Source for rate cut odds: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/674/238/625/634/360/original/b23ee09ad96a5f71.jpeg

2024-12-13 23:55:05 UTC

Most professional traders make money doing easy shit. Don’t overthink it.
Examples in the replies, enjoy the meme
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/648/210/936/708/621/original/a044f30f63c17b4e.jpeg

2024-12-13 00:43:33 UTC

S&P? Who that?
On track for one of my best years in the personal trading and retirement account (doesn't include shitcoins or Bitcoin holdings). Most of my portfolio's out-performance vs the S&P is due to holding some higher risk names (TSLA mostly) in higher than usual allocation as well as when I liquidated my money market account to buy the tech dip on Aug 5th.
Including BTC (up 138% this year) in the portfolio pushes the portfolio's return up to about 74.4%.
Stay invested, folks
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/642/724/228/826/860/original/83949fe570e63367.png

2024-12-09 21:47:19 UTC

Bought some XRP on that rip down earlier, only got $2.13 (traded as low as like $2.00) but that’s the best I could do from mobile.
I don’t care about or believe in this garbage but that was a 20% downtick in like 5 minutes lol. Gonna revert, gonna try to scalp out of $2.33 if we get there. Easy 10% scalp or so.

2024-12-05 04:30:03 UTC

lmao
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/598/332/830/782/160/original/250b484af5cfaf05.jpeg

2024-12-05 04:05:16 UTC

- reply

I remember on this very platform in 2022 when I was doubling down on my bitcoin bets at $20k BTC, a few people were telling me it would eventually go to zero. I saved the screenshots just for the laughs, but these same folks are awfully quiet now.
Like I always say: opinions are worthless, put the trade on and see what happens.

2024-12-05 04:03:49 UTC

- reply

The answer is most people. We’ve been talking about this for years and specifically these past few months given the red sweep.
Trump win (let alone red sweep) = positive sentiment = equities rip = specifically small caps and risk-on assets rip = bitcoin moons. And better yet, the president elect spoke at the Bitcoin conference this summer, saying “Never sell your bitcoin” while talking about a national Bitcoin reserve fund.
And you’re bearish Bitcoin?

2024-12-05 03:17:33 UTC

BTC breaks $100k. Who could have seen this coming?

2024-12-04 00:59:16 UTC

- reply

I tip 30-40% cash at my local bar, but after months of doing this every time I drop in (at least every other week) they give me a free shot before I leave. Quid pro quo.

2024-11-30 17:29:11 UTC

Real
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/573/085/141/073/672/original/d55060df65b5a178.jpeg

2024-11-24 17:42:51 UTC

- reply

Finished product:
Specs on the original post. Running Pop_OS like on the last machine. Mostly used for gaming, trading, and light coding/processing work. Plugged into 3 monitors running at 4k.
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/539/157/983/034/750/original/18bdde5a403ab94a.jpeg

2024-11-23 21:01:26 UTC

- reply

Kept my old screens, a 32 flat panel and two 27s on the side. Cost $2.7k for what’s pictured.

2024-11-23 20:22:34 UTC

New PC build day!
Specs:
CPU: Ryzen 7 7800X3D
GPU: AMD RX 7900 XTX
Motherboard: ASRock B650E Steel Legend
Ram: GSkill Trident Z5 DDR5-6000 32GBx2
Storage: Samsung 990 Pro NVME 2TB
PSU: Corsair RM1000e
CPU Cooling: Thermalright Peerless Assassin
Tower: Lian Li 011 Dynamic Evo XL
And a shit load of Lian Li SL-Infinity fans to go with it
I’ll be back in a few hours
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/534/129/229/683/141/original/5837a1aeab92b446.jpeg

2024-11-22 23:34:05 UTC

- reply

Times like these when markets and bitcoin float near all time highs, I revisit a folder on my computer of various people on social media calling the top in either asset class.
Don’t galaxy brain this shit (markets). Buy shit that’s going up, sell shit that’s going down. Ride the wave.
On that note, this weekend will be a great weekend to trade for all you crypto degenerates (me). Go make some fucking money, if you don’t then someone will.

2024-11-22 23:31:53 UTC

Thank God it’s Friday
It’s been another one of those weeks. Markets are busy, I’m starting to trade more complex products at work which is great (more $) but stressful and operationally straining. Automation in the works, but these first few weeks have been draining
Bitcoin near $100k though, so I’m having some friends over tomorrow for dinner and drinks to celebrate. What a run
Thinking about posting more on markets again, at least weekly, but working on the format
Enjoy the weekend folks.
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/529/212/596/977/857/original/318045d918daf1e9.jpeg

2024-11-11 22:08:26 UTC

- reply

I dislike the “are gold and silver useful compared to X” debates because they largely end up at the apocalypse scenario. Nobody knows what the fuck anybody will be doing or valuing and 99.9999999999999% of us will be dead before said apocalypse begins.
Waste of time to debate it. I like gold and silver, they are good market hedges. Always will be when it matters, and I don’t care about the apocalypse scenarios.

2024-11-11 21:49:52 UTC

- reply

Just gonna hold my physical silver. Still has its “oh shit” end of the world uses, but I also don’t like getting raped on the spread to get out.

2024-11-11 21:32:31 UTC

- reply

Well that was fast
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/466/457/973/401/693/original/e9d1845d8082a3cd.jpeg

2024-11-11 20:13:27 UTC

Bitcoin is about to overtake Silver's market cap...
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/466/147/059/029/843/original/ff26f72a635003e0.png

2024-11-11 01:43:21 UTC

Me and the boys looking at our Bitcoin wallets at all time highs
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/461/781/257/745/300/original/3af98ea01a55b895.mp4

2024-11-10 00:57:41 UTC

Another good day on the bayou
Caught 41 bull red fish today, biggest was one that I got in the first picture at 46 inches.
Good eating too, we caught a few smaller ones (bigger than 14 inch but smaller than 27) and ate them tonight. Really good fish.
Even caught one on a sugar cane rod, an old but fun way of fishing.
Went out with Paul Miller, a guide who’s been fishing this area for 11 years. He has a podcast too, Tuna Town Talks, check it out!
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/455/939/553/048/955/original/ad997d298a49f8c3.jpeg
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/455/940/120/335/807/original/b94700faf60648bc.jpeg

2024-11-07 14:08:30 UTC

The next US president spoke at the annual Bitcoin conference this year, supports a national Bitcoin reserve which is also supported by a few senators, and will fire the current anti-crypto SEC chairman for a more crypto-friendly SEC chairman…
And you’re bearish Bitcoin?
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/442/059/965/661/499/original/88409bd8614acecf.jpeg

2024-11-06 11:53:35 UTC

The country this morning
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/435/869/934/402/679/original/35fb64473104890b.jpeg

2024-11-06 11:47:01 UTC

Election called for Trump. Electoral and popular vote.
Markets ripping higher:
S&P up 2.3%
Russell up 5.9%
Bonds crushed across the curve
Bitcoin up 7.1%
Dollar up 1.8%
Financial stocks should have a good day today with yields and dollar strength. All of that with the backdrop of the FOMC meeting this week where the Fed is expected to drop the target rate down 25 more bps.
SPX 6000 in sight.

2024-11-06 01:16:22 UTC

- reply

Exit polls from Georgia show independent voters voting 54% for Trump and 43% for Harris, which is likely why the market for Trump skyrocketed temporarily. Still early.

2024-11-06 01:15:27 UTC

- reply

Still low count numbers in a hand full of swing states (except Ohio). NC at less than 10% reporting, PA just 5%, Michigan just 2%. Ohio though has 35% reporting with Harris in a pretty clear lead so far, 52% vs Trump at 47%.

2024-11-06 00:45:51 UTC

- reply

Trump odds rising in betting markets: Trump 68% vs Harris at 32%. Still VERY early, but notice the market reaction now.
S&P futures still ramping, bitcoin rising (correlated to betting market odds). Still very early though, and much of the betting market moves are likely due to trading flow punting in larger than usual size (thin books right now).
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/433/244/420/591/553/original/5d2beae31d07613b.png

2024-11-06 00:35:56 UTC

- reply

Markets starting to move a bit.
Bonds bid (rates off), S&P, RTY, and BTC bid. EUR and MXN get sold.
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/433/205/333/887/467/original/7bc9df24fb081bb1.jpeg

2024-11-05 23:11:21 UTC

Now the fun begins. I’ll be up most of the night trading this shit, so I’ll share some thoughts here while data comes in.
Bloomberg terminal has some great data aggregation stuff too, “WSL ELECNIGHT <GO>” if you’re on a terminal, which I’ll try to share here quickly. So far exit polling is uninteresting and no real results have been revealed.
I doubt we know who wins tonight unless it’s a real blowout, but it will be fun regardless.
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/432/871/330/959/493/original/728f74a7079dc92a.jpeg

2024-11-05 00:51:17 UTC

- reply

2020 was boring in comparison, though I was trading professionally. 2024 will probably be a dud as well, but I’ll be working a 48 hour shift just in case. Going in tomorrow at 6am, leaving Thursday at 6am. Hopefully it’s worth it, either way it’ll be fun.
Not looking forward to sleeping on the shitty office couches though.

2024-11-05 00:49:24 UTC

- reply

Clinton win = bonds perform because stocks were selling off, trump win = bonds get dumped.
I’ll never forget, I was down 20 ticks in a shitty position (shorting bonds), because we figured even if Trump didn’t pull ahead, stocks would rally a bit because Clinton wasn’t that bad for markets.
I sold bonds all the way up, 20 ticks in my face, and absolutely slammed them on the way down. Ended up making 4 points (128 ticks) on an uncomfortable amount of ZB bond futures.

2024-11-05 00:46:26 UTC

- reply

Mind you, lame polls at the time were pricing a Clinton win. So the market was ripe for volatility as the results came in.
I made most of my money that night trading 30yr bond futures. Bond futures are priced in a weird way, but just know that every tick increment movement is $31.25 profit or loss, and in a typical day they move 8-10 ticks.
That night, bond futures rallied as high as 2 points (64 ticks) and ultimately sold off nearly 6 points.
Continued…

2024-11-05 00:43:09 UTC

Presidential elections always remind me of trading the 2016 election
You didn’t need to watch the live election results, all you needed to watch was the S&P futures and bonds.
Family friend of mine was a massive bond trader, I was on the west coast for work at the time (prior to starting my trading career professionally). I was working in consulting at the time, so I had free-reign to trade whatever I wanted in the personal account.
So I called my buddy, put him on speaker phone, and traded..

2024-11-03 19:07:31 UTC

ITM and Happy show day
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/420/589/243/975/322/original/82517814cebc3eac.jpeg

2024-10-30 00:12:09 UTC

There are dozens of recessionary signals out there. Economic data, valuations, macroeconomic analysis, and the like.
The problem is that most of that garbage is bullshit. The same folks who point to bearish economic data for recessionary signals argue this data is corrupt (CPI, unemployment). Valuations are also fugazzi. Garbage in, garbage out; meaning, if your assumptions are shit then so too are the model results. Macroeconomics is even worse; it’s horoscopes for morons.
Continued.

2024-10-29 23:44:17 UTC

Can’t believe I’m saying this, but Kamala is getting to levels worth betting on in Polymarket odds.
She now sits at a 33.3% chance (MAGIC NUMBER) to win the presidency. This spread should absolutely tighten up into the election, and I’m pretty close to buying Kamala as a short term trade. Might wait for 30%, but at some point this spread must tighten (election night perhaps when one or two upset states get announced?).
30% feels a bit too cheap going into the election.
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/393/366/210/468/918/original/1f1f166d81abb748.jpeg

2024-10-27 18:07:45 UTC

ITM and Happy Show day
Relaxing Sunday for me while I listen to the live stream, not much planned. Video games, read a bit, the usual Sunday.
I've been planning a new PC build, maybe I'll finalize that today. My current machine's hardware is starting to lack a bit.
Hope everyone is having a great weekend.

2024-10-24 00:22:03 UTC

The cope from celebrities is so funny, man
https://static.noauthority.social/media_attachments/files/113/359/540/887/575/917/original/ac1633d6f1340ad5.jpeg

2024-10-19 14:20:15 UTC

- reply

Depends on your intent and how much you want to buy. Buying physical is always better, but storing it securely is important. If your intent is to hold for a long time, physical also better. If your intent is a quick trade, buy the ETFs like GLD or similar.