Cypher

"7a404310752121a3e86721a4782d7c9041323ab8bb76c92cfbd7dad1d06bf93b583f7229cc0abfd28feb286711e184d94a35b78369762d5e36ca9f33a4de7a35"

Last Notes

2026-04-02 13:46:42 UTC

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20% of 100million is 500k? The maths checks out. My bitcoin balance is 20% of warren buffet's.

2026-03-19 16:16:02 UTC

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Core Game-Theoretic Setup
The Strait of Hormuz — ~20% of global oil flows through it. Iran's leverage historically comes from threatening this chokepoint.
What the insurance does mechanically:
- Transfers disruption risk from tanker owners/US Navy to insurance pools
- Makes disruption threats less coercive (the economic pain is pooled/absorbed)
- Reduces the payoff to the US of a costly military presence
Key Tensions I'm Seeing
1. Iran's threat credibility — Without insurance, Iran disrupting tankers = massive economic pain on buyers. With insurance, that pain is attenuated. Does Iran escalate to prove resolve, or does disruption become futile?
2. Escalation ladder — Drones could be the mechanism Iran uses to disrupt tankers. Insurance could:
- Make drone attacks less strategically effective (cost imposed is diluted)
- OR push Iran toward more severe escalation to regain leverage
3. China's position — China is the major buyer. Does US insurance mean China is insulated from Iran's coercive diplomacy? Or does China become the real target (diplomatically), bypassing the insurance game?
4. Gulf state alignment — UAE/Dubai benefit from stable shipping. Does insurance reinforce their US alignment, or create distance (insurance = less need for US military presence = more autonomy)?
If both China and USA are insuring tankers, that creates a mutually benefitial de-escalation plausible. Don't worry about it.

2026-03-19 15:59:16 UTC

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So like.. TOGAF and MSBE?

2026-03-19 15:56:09 UTC

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Trick question. Mike, Konny, and also-Mike are AI generated portaits of the same prompt. The answer is "History is a lie, your models are void."

2026-03-19 15:50:32 UTC

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Since Monero was delisted it's done nothing but go up. Its use-case and value proposition was actually BOOSTED by getting banned.
"Wait... governments can ban crypto ownership? So what's stopping my fully public ledger coin from being a massive legal risk?"
With unstoppableswaps from Bitcoin to Monero, I transferred same day :) #Invisible

2026-03-19 15:23:09 UTC

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When twitter firehose into nostr that's what I wanna know

2026-03-19 14:46:19 UTC

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I thought we left shit like this behind on Facebook...

2026-03-19 14:31:03 UTC

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I think if Jesus was called Jeff nobody would have listened to him

2026-03-19 14:24:26 UTC

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Smushing religions together is what Blavatsky did when she founded the Theosophical Society. "There is no religion higher than Truth".

2026-03-19 14:17:16 UTC

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I'm thankful for the fact this world is so logically paradoxical that I can see WHY politicians are warmongers, liars, and blackmailed.
Q: Given a civilisation requires a network of trust between world leaders, and given bitcoin hasn't been invented yet, how do you create that trust network?
A: Blackmail.
That blackmail, those lies, those wars, are what created all those billions of people. Ironic, right? Systems thinking and game theory say sorry not sorry.
Without those tools of power there can be no trust, and without trust there is no civilisation. Thank God for Bitcoin. What a time to be alive!

2025-04-16 00:05:08 UTC

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In the beginning...

2025-04-15 23:40:35 UTC

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My aging knees love fiat I guess

2025-04-15 23:28:37 UTC

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Tell them stories. That's why religious texts have worked so well, they're narrative based.

2025-04-15 23:22:53 UTC

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Of mice and men

2025-04-15 23:21:14 UTC

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I'm ready to throw the baby out with the bathwater and say all vaccines are against human progress, and all of them should be avoided. Every single one.

2025-04-15 23:10:11 UTC

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When you realise the entire fiat world IS jail already :S

2025-04-15 23:07:16 UTC

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Something I found is that there are certain personality types which are able to wrap their heads around Bitcoin. Unfortunately, they're not the most common ones. The most common personality types have 0% representation in owning Bitcoin. Bitcoin adoption is behaving like a personality filter at the moment.