Stu
⚡️🌱🌙

https://stuartellison.com

stuartellison.com

knostr.io
zairk.com
🪴

Public Key

npub1w4swqedal6gcw23ndd93tkkdy3zj2l6zjdjvzrhu8rnw0k8lc8lswzprhz

NIP-05 Address

Stu@stuartellison.com

NIP-57 Address

focusedbracket91@walletofsatoshi.com

Profile Code

nprofile1qqs82c8qvk7layv89gekkjc4mtxjg3f90apfxexppm7r3eh8mrlurlcpz4mhxue69uhk2er9dchxummnw3ezumrpdejqzrnhwden5te0dehhxtnvdakz7400ns4

Publishing to

eden.nostr.land

nos.lol

Author Public Key

npub1w4swqedal6gcw23ndd93tkkdy3zj2l6zjdjvzrhu8rnw0k8lc8lswzprhz

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Last Notes

2024-08-31 23:35:24

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The problem is corruption.
I don’t mean naked corruption like bribes, etc, just the legal stuff of favours and interests that hijack the system and bleed it out whilst everyone else is trying to concentrate on their own life. That’s the problem.
It’s all so late stage and infected.

2024-08-26 09:32:27

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No, Linux is a general computing OS.

2024-08-26 08:49:44

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Yes, people are talking about how LLM’s make English a programming language and how they use English prompts to write Python response.
This is obviously dumb.
We should be using LLM’s to translate English prompts into assembly code and running on bare metal.
Bootloader + LLM is all you need.
No apps, no OS, no 3rd parties.
It’s vastly more secure because you’re only running your own code and it’s completely novel on every boot.

2024-08-26 00:46:51

With SOTA LLM’s you can write your own bootloader that boots your pc into a runtime environment that does not require an OS.
You can actually have the LLM’s write bare metal code that runs.
You can do RAM only systems.
With LLM’s it’s not that hard to break outside the shell on just about any machine. You can boot into bare metal and just skip the entire OS.
You can initialise network hardware and do really specific highly optimal stuff running bare metal code.
I don’t think we need operating systems or programs any more, this sounds so stupid but I think the whole tech stack is like Wylie Coyote, I think in 10 years the entire runtime environment and application layer might just self assemble on boot as the user prompts an LLM to ad hoc code the whole stack to execute some task.
It will be more powerful, more feature specific, faster, more malleable.

2024-08-06 17:33:03

What are the biggest nostr dramas of 2024 so far?

2024-07-29 10:17:31

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Yes, it’s pretty amazing.
Lots of elements of a new internet are here.

2024-07-29 01:07:41

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Nostr just needs more and more ramps, more portals in and out.
It doesn’t need (or want) to be a walled garden.

2024-07-29 00:51:15

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Torrents of money?

2024-07-14 08:40:06

Heading to US in the morning, interesting times.

2024-07-14 08:36:57

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It’s only right that you can’t delete this.

2024-07-14 00:50:52

This is not OK. https://image.nostr.build/17d2a29dc18372a84c6a76f7dc7a7cb87b875bdd93b7c765c18b536dfd00f87b.jpg

2024-07-14 00:29:13

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Nah, people are not the stupid sheep you claim they are, and are more than capable of thinking for themselves.

2024-07-13 22:17:13

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😂

2024-07-13 21:48:02

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It’s true.

2024-07-13 21:40:06

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… and now I am become Time. https://image.nostr.build/0597b9e056a01eb3a1f45e112873c9d3e59b1d2fa3c210d807f924d1e5ef0dbd.jpg

2024-07-13 21:35:50

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It’s only once you realise you don’t need permission, that you’re finally free.

2024-07-13 21:34:51

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He’s the potential match winner.

2024-07-13 21:31:42

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Everyone eventually ends up on nostr, it’s just a matter of time.
It’s the only place on the internet where you don’t need anyone’s permission.

2024-07-13 21:29:17

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I do not.
I’m hoping for a massive reversal of recent form and some sort of divine intervention.

2024-07-13 21:26:28

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I’m super sensitive to anything red and yellow this weekend.

2024-06-08 21:31:24

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There’s no reason Twitter can’t run on nostr, it sure would save them a lot of legal bills around the world.
It would occupy the protocol though given the current size disparity.
Elon’s biggest strength is that every world leader wants to be photographed meeting him and if you are censoring people online you aren’t getting that photo, maybe he even meets your opponent?

2024-06-08 20:56:00

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Basically…
1) turn off a PC / laptop.
2) plug this plain looking lightning cable in
3) turn on PC / laptop
4) rather than boot up as normal it will boot from cable (if USB boot enabled)
5) prompts for a web URL
6) you enter a specific URL
7) PC / laptop boots an OS from the URL, boots a shell into RAM only
8) You now have an OS shell running on the PC / laptop in RAM (volatile), it doesn’t touch the disc and it loads all this from an OS image that you do not even possess.
Why bother?
This leaves no trace of your session on the host, no logs, the host never even booted.
The only trace that a session happened is on the rooter logs where the host machine IP will appear, but it always appears there so doesn’t look odd.
If you are caught with the hardware, it just looks like a charger and not a flash drive it’s overlooked, if someone does trys plugging it into a machine anyway, it has no data on it, no credentials, no applications, no operating system.
Just a boot.ini package that boots to an iPXE prompt.
My plan is to see if I can squeeze a mag switch into the connector so that I can wire it as a cable and then use magnet (in the lighting end) to switch it to the hidden flash.
It’s just a fun little project.

2024-06-08 19:07:18

Turning an old iPhone cable into a USB boot device that boots iPXE, and on boot requests an http address for RAM only OS image.
The computer that doesn’t exist. https://image.nostr.build/4308db267f7c6fe811d283d51ef979f733c7843d1ac3ba6b3a69e2baec3d91f8.jpg

2024-06-08 01:49:24

Has anyone played with https://websim.ai ?

2024-06-06 13:12:48

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LLM’s are a great tool for thinking stuff through.

2024-06-06 12:59:07

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Wait, if he’s yellow, then that means…

2024-06-06 12:58:20

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Hard times…

2024-06-06 11:56:58

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What’s crazy, is that I don’t usually eat breakfast, but yesterday I have a little leaflet to read saying I would be eating something for breakfast today as part of some tests, and my stomach seems to have set an appointment.

2024-06-06 11:54:32

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Yeah, occasionally I have some all consuming busyness to deal with.

2024-06-06 11:48:55

I’m currently fasting for one of these health metric kits and doing a bunch of blood and guts test.
But I had to do the school run this morning, ad hoc, and now I’m 2 hours late on every meal, and the hunger is killing me. 🤣
What have I signed up to?

2024-06-06 11:44:36

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Attention is All you Need.

2024-05-13 08:50:58

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That is an open ended fiscal system, and that’s not what we have.
The US government has the Treasury General Account. The UK government has the Consolidated Fund. These bank accounts are a part of the economy, they don’t ever go negative and their balances are published daily. Look them up.
In a capitalist economy (pre-2008), government deficit spending is supposed to drive up interest rates, as the gov has to go to the bond market to borrow more money. But since 2008, the Central Banks have just created new money to buy bonds and force rates low whilst encouraging ever more deficit spending.
2008 really broke capitalism and since then we have had a sort of monetary command and control economy. But it doesn’t work like the diagram shown above.

2024-05-13 08:36:43

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Start at the very bottom of the stack.
1). The physical network exists and it’s not yours. Not your servers, not your routers.
2). IP addresses are assigned by IANA. This is a permission request.
To create a decentralised network, the network ID’s / addresses would need to be self generated not assigned from a permission granting institution. You should self declare an identity and the network should propagate it with your traffic. First time connections would be slow, second time connections would be fast.
The Internet Protocol we all use at the base is highly centralised. You can create abstract networks within the internet like VPN’s do, or onion, but all the exit points are centrally assigned IP’s.
Why bother when we have encryption?
As great and fundamental as TCP/IP is, it is not permissionless and although this permission is always granted and is always frictionless, the result of IP design is a central register that geotags and ownertags every IP address.
Whilst the content of your message can be hidden, the TCP table cannot. The TCP table contains all the information required to go fish for the message.
Is there no hope?
Well if someone were to make the effort to devise an alternative routing system with self generated addresses, a permissionless network, then you could have a free network. The barrier is that all the physical network all the network cards and routers run IP. It’s a huge barrier.
But we are gradually approaching a world where you can do the impossible and circumvent the physical network that exists today.
Within a decade or two it will be fairly easy to replace the physical internet with a network of cubesats that hosts a decentralised network architecture.
It won’t be as fast as the internet, it would be slow and expensive, but it would be secure and untraceable.
Will it happen? No.
But it’s not as impossible as it once was.

2024-05-04 21:55:53

I need to get back on top of nostr. #note1q7z…ts0y

2024-03-27 00:37:36

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Her hair gets longer and shorter.
There will be zero tells within a year and soon after that video will be inadmissible in court.
It’s also the death of the internet, you will soon be able to hallucinate an internet on demand.

2024-03-26 23:53:59

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Zap to join livestream.
Digital gig tickets.
Sell live music events over the internet.
Could be enormous.

2024-03-26 23:15:00

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🫂

2024-03-26 23:14:07

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Hoping to move some of my side projects forward over the summer.
I still want to make a doesn’t-exist-computer that iPXE boots into RAM only using nothing but a USB cable.
You just have a USB cable with small flash memory hidden in the connector, it doesn’t even have an OS on it. Plug it in to a machine and it iPXE boots a web hosted image into RAM only.
Computing without a trace.

2024-03-26 23:00:41

How is everyone anyway?
I’ve been working too hard recently and that makes me a dull boy.

2024-03-26 22:59:06

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Here’s the video I posted in 3rd Feb 2023 to suggest to Jon Leger how nostrgram should load…
This is exactly how X Pro works 1 year later??
Weird. https://video.nostr.build/5c5248c3fee4de5f7674972302477628a6ed715c0e9803138443005e4ba4e1b6.mp4

2024-03-26 22:34:45

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Something got poached. It even does the top loading animation that I talked to Jon about.
Can’t be a coincidence can it?

2024-03-26 22:30:14

Huh. X Pro’s UI is indistinguishable from the nostrgram UI that @npub1t9a…h4uw built here 12 months ago. https://image.nostr.build/d1cb0e21037c18dce0be6c97c1abca04ec120bd692072a5600bc12f4dc639564.jpg https://image.nostr.build/fd84d869240a54871fd893dedf1bc0a67579e127579e2845429d6bee41b95c86.jpg

2024-03-04 22:16:19

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Agentina is going to start growing quickly and voters elsewhere are going to notice.

2024-03-04 13:18:28

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Freedman’s laissez faire economics is going to come roaring back out of Argentina this decade.

2024-02-27 23:09:01

Should I get a Nothing phone (2a)?
Anyone here tried one of these?
Tempted to have an off ramp from iOS, I sort of expect big tech is going to do big overreach stuff, as AI battles pan out… and this Nothing phone looks like something I could like.
I’m pretty sure people try this route and then go back to apple after 6 months. But I don’t need iMessage at all.
https://nothing.tech/pages/event

2024-02-25 23:32:17

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There’s an age where you stop giving AF about what people think, and for some people that happens too young and for others it happens too late.
Crucially, your only currency here is time and if you spend most of your time chasing the same thing, did you really get the full experience out of life?

2024-02-24 20:14:00

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There are places in countries where laws are interpreted and enforced differently than other places in the same country.
How free a country is depends on how you want to live your life.
Some places you are freer to live quietly, others you are freer to pursue bhag.
It’s actually very nuanced, but nowhere is there a libertarian Wild West.

2024-02-24 17:43:31

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Yeah this is really a pet project that I’m doing with kids. FBA means we can offload a lot of the actual work and keep this as a side project.
I’m really just teaching my kids some biz skills.
Already own nostrmarketplace.com and knostr.io for future use.

2024-02-19 12:47:16

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No, I’m UK.
Needs to be inside EU apparently.

2024-02-19 12:11:08

Interesting problem…
Last year I started a micro business (UK) with my kids, part of which we are selling some imported goods via Amazon. This is a neat lesson for the kids because Amazon allows us to reach 1bn people across 23 countries.
Opportunity…
The EU requires us to have a person who is resident in the EU to act as point of contact for CE marking and for any stock that is delisted and needs to be returned to seller.
There are lots of people putting up websites offering this as a service, essentially a glorified mailbox, but they all seem to be saturated with demand. Hence the opportunity.
So does anyone in on nostr who lives in EU want to earn a few € a month to do this role for our micro biz? If so DM me. Only requirement is you should have a responsible character. But ideally you are WFH, maybe freelance, contractor, w/e?
More broadly… If anyone is an EU based dev, there is an Amazon imposed deadline for everyone to adopt this by 31st March 2024 and this looks like an great shot at capturing some recurring income potentially for years.

2024-01-11 21:28:06

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You missed the fact that sperm counts are down by 70%. Are men choosing to have lower sperm counts?

2024-01-11 14:28:35

🚨 Crazy Talk 🚨
I’m sure everyone is familiar with the way birthrates are collapsing all over the place and this is often associated with higher income people wanting fewer children.
However that doesn’t really make sense, unless income is negatively correlated with sexual activity and I doubt it is, or it hasn’t ever been shown.c
So why are birth rates collapsing and why do wealthy countries lead this?
1). Sperm counts have collapsed. Everywhere that births are down, sperm counts are down. It’s not some choice, it’s not abstinence or contraceptive. It’s sperm. The data is in and wealthy sperm is bad sperm.
Why does sperm go bad in wealthy countries when poorer countries don’t have this issue?
2). Nanoplastics are everywhere. Nanoplastics are smaller than microplastics, nanoplastics are actually small enough to diffuse across the cell membrane and into cells. Whilst your skin is good at defending your body from this kind of stuff by dropping dead cells, it’s much tougher on the inside.
Last year medical studies measured that mice who ingested nanoplastics would become infertile because nanoplastics accumulates in the testes! They observed nanoplastics accumulating in mice testing and this correlated with infertility.
More recently scientists discovered that bottled water measurably contains 100,000x more nanoplastic than previously thought…
This seems like a smoking gun, it seems like lung cancer and smoking.
It seems that plastic packaging of food and drinks causes infertility we now have a mechanism for the hypothesis and this hypothesis is very strongly correlated with data of national wealth, sperm counts, and fertility rates across world population groups.
So fellas… no plastic bottles, no plastic packaged food.
But perhaps more so… boys and young men should definitely not be eating / drinking this stuff.
I think some governments are going to put all this together and figure this out in the next couple of years. But no need to wait for that. https://image.nostr.build/2db2680afdf739d024857d327f37ef7c5e6e29aa8640736f42189f64c5c88397.jpg https://image.nostr.build/ec8f5ff8a4fffca05ce736d075845e3631d3bd83b766074d95f1eb40b4aeb7bf.jpg

2024-01-08 12:21:01

https://image.nostr.build/110f1e84d4b5039264ad52b768714cec004cbd4a8f4b6b50b781995195c01e20.jpg

2023-12-24 15:04:28

This chart proves the case for bitcoin.
The S&P500 has never topped the 1929 all time high, when adjusted for m2 money supply (inflation, or dilution depending on pov). https://image.nostr.build/f03749a51d60418af0cbd3fa6deec41126cf2154bacbb5502e3ecf7e2d0442a1.jpg

2023-12-16 15:52:09

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As the ice on North America and Europe melted and dumped into the oceans, those two landmasses then rose up.
My house where I live is still actually rising above sea level today by approx 20mm/yr, even as the global sea level rises due to climate change.
… and my house is 1/2 mile from the beach.
We live on a very dynamic planet.

2023-12-16 15:47:42

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Atlantis speculation is fun.
It’s also wild that aboriginal stories exist about the flooding that happened circa 15,000 years ago with the meltwater pulse of the last ice age.
Neolithic history had to put up with climate change that was an entire order of magnitude more dramatic than anything we are worried about, as Europe and North America shed enormous land ice sheets that were miles thick.

2023-12-13 20:44:47

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Well said!

2023-12-13 20:42:39

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Hmm, we had energy price fixing across much of Europe and it’s not been so great for inflation, public debt, erosion of living standards, etc.
Some people didn’t freeze to death though, so some balance there. But price fixing just breeds inefficiency, waste and has a high cost burden for society at large.

2023-12-13 20:38:38

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Was the persistent trend? 🤣

2023-12-13 18:16:23

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Do you have a DeLorean?

2023-12-13 17:57:13

In the good old days, you had to walk up to a girl in a bar with a beer matt and a pencil and ask for her number.
If her friends didn’t like you… no pass.
Then you had to call her house and her mom or dad would answer the phone.
If her parents didn’t like the sound of your voice… no pass.
Today girls have DM’s and I can’t even imagine the horrors therein! I think this alone explains the collapsing birth rate. https://image.nostr.build/8096ebdaa3da99d22c51e99ac240292469c552726ec1422423ec293dfbc2bbe5.jpg

2023-12-12 18:07:32

At what point do we in the West wake up from our childish stupor and acknowledge the reality of the world we live in?
Annual CO2 emissions. https://image.nostr.build/dd0fe4a1dbda588ad2104d7ef9dbcc17845c4927f5f8942a1823d96783dde13c.jpg

2023-12-12 13:58:24

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Loving the timing of this too.
The fact they dropped it the same day as EU AI Act is just 🤣

2023-12-12 13:55:39

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We had approx 15 meetings after Sunday dinner and that’s where everything was done, maybe 90mins each. We just sit around the table after cleared up and do some stuff.
Physical goods, we just used the internet to organise / manage everything.

2023-12-12 12:59:43

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We bought some stuff and we sold some stuff.
We are just ruthlessly systemic and efficient.
One of my favourite lessons though is that speed of turnover is what matters, not margin.
Return on capital = margin ^ turnover cycles
So we are starting with stuff that is high value density, fast turnover and we are saturating out those opportunities before moving into more scalable things.
Think we underestimated the addressable market for our first stage though, so we are overachieving at the moment.
Good business just boils down to math.
People complicate it with moronic stuff and feelings.
But I’m an MEng^2 + MBA so you probably shouldn’t listen to me. Very not cool.

2023-12-12 12:35:25

Amazing to see Tim Sweeney and Epic Games have defeated Google over the Play Store monopoly.
Now they move on to Apple and the App Store.
It also seems significant that the California court has declared “monopoly”.
Really changes in the landscape are coming, with AI and now the demonetisation of hosting stores. Things are really going to get a lot more fluid again.

2023-12-11 22:23:44

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Yes, we make decisions about what to do with the money to grow the funds and that’s it.
We started with £1,000
We might write an email or fill a form.
But nothing that looks like a chore.

2023-12-11 15:57:48

I’m sure nobody here remembers, but 6 months ago I said I was starting a home biz with my two kids (13, 14) to give them a taste of capitalism and entrepreneurialism.
We have a mini board meeting every Sunday night and the only rule is that our biz is a zero labour biz (we don’t want chores). We probably had 15 meetings so far and the boardroom dynamics are interesting considering everyone has an equal vote. 🤣
We started out with registering a limited company in UK (£12), opening a commercial bank account (£0), and depositing £1,000, bought web domain (£10), bunch of service fees (~£100).
My plan was:
Day 1… £1,000
Year 1 profit… £10,000
Year 2 profit… £50,000
Year 3 profit… £100,000
No dividend / salaries
Well today we shipped our first £10,000 of product and next week we ship another £10,000
But our margin is ~50% so things are looking really positive at the six month mark.
Kids are loving it.
Crucially it was important to start from essentially nothing. That’s the entire life lesson here… From nothing, at any time, just know you can do this.
Blah blah something something about giving a fish or a net, blah blah.

2023-12-09 21:32:50

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https://video.nostr.build/9d93c46913bfea20bd70e0f707b6f45efdbb1c64f9d0dd5303ab5db300eb13e0.mp4

2023-12-09 21:27:57

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Funny, because attention is about to drop offline en masse.
Distributing great content is irrelevant when great content is generated at home on demand.
2024 might be peak internet.
And I know that sounds absurd, but Netflix is freefalling into obsolescence.

2023-12-09 21:23:41

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Are you working on this stuff in EU?
For clarity, I’m not in EU. I am in UK.

2023-12-09 21:21:15

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You make the model open source and thus exempt.

2023-12-09 21:20:32

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10 year ago I thought Brexit was a calamitous idea. But if I’m honest it really hasn’t been. It’s been a damp squib. Inconsequential. For all the attention and energy it consumed not much happened. The biggest cost was probably opportunity cost of so much political capital debate going to such a none issue.
Saying all that, before the fact it was certainly a big leap into the unknown.
But people had eyes wide open, they expected to be poorer. They expected to lose 8% of GDP.
They voted for it anyway.
Irrational? No, people were simply willing to pay that price for control of their destiny.
But they got lucky, the price was actually much lower.
The Brexit recession simply did not happen.
Lots of establishment types point to every minor thing and claim aha! brexit or aha! Climate change. But it’s undeniable, the emperor has no clothes. Nobody is listening any more.
We left years ago now.
Covid was 30x more disruptive than brexit.
Some stuff is rebalancing still, but UK has a lot of smart people. Is very agile. Can punch well above its weight. Has gained autonomy to do so.
All it takes is Sterling to return to 2008 exchange rates (or even $1.60) and the broadsheets will be squealing… “what do the Brits know?”.

2023-12-09 20:55:28

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These EU laws are never enforced unless you are US monopoly enjoying defacto anti trust immunity.
How many people are in prison for using cookies? Is it none?

2023-12-09 20:53:36

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Generating illegal content is already illegal.

2023-12-09 13:48:16

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Where? https://image.nostr.build/9753d8591702518e758b331932b747256cda503235da2d8ca4f3cde807be0e46.jpg

2023-12-09 13:39:23

Lots of people are losing their shit because the EU has enacted their AI Act.
But obviously nobody has actually read it. They haven’t blocked any AI developments, they have banned governments from building mass surveillance social credit systems based on AI of the type in use in China.
eg in the EU it’s now illegal to walk around public places outting gay children with your smartphone.
Nor can you create / operate facial recognition databases via CCTV.
(I don’t live in the EU btw) https://image.nostr.build/8bd50b00ae421ba68df35f6f61a67447599706de2d9fd4d7062dc6268bf2ee53.jpg

2023-12-08 23:34:37

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This is an 87GB torrent.
If you have been toying with local AI this one looks really promising, only dropped a few hours ago and suggests GPT4 performance.
Also going to be wild to see what happens with SSMS next year. We might be able to train on CPU’s by then. Good news for all the unused bare metal in my garage.

2023-12-08 23:32:10

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Water is free where I live and it’s excellent quality. Crystal clean air and water are one of the trades of living in a cool wet climate.
Most of the cities I visit have nasty undrinkable water, that tastes like it’s been piped 100 miles.

2023-12-08 23:25:05

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I hone my knives constantly and that alone makes cooking a joy.

2023-12-08 23:23:38

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Data contradicts this. British emigration is down, and immigration has exploded. https://image.nostr.build/3426c6c157a03287c7aba4cfbcd29742fbc9209b05ee131fbfda04220a795f1d.jpg

2023-12-08 23:18:55

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The fact that Brexit disrupted so much stuff, was kind of a self fulfilling prophecy that we had surrendered too much control.
The more George Osborne warned about the chaos, the more people asked “Why the hell would it affect that? Do they really control that too?”
Epically bad campaign and Cummings on the other side just being ruthless with ‘whatever it takes’ campaigning.

2023-12-08 23:13:47

Seen this? Open Source AI is pulling ahead.
Might order a TinyBox for Christmas?
magnet:?xt=urn:btih:5546272da9065eddeb6fcd7ffddeef5b75be79a7&dn=mixtral-8x7b-32kseqlen&tr=udp%3A%2F%2Fopentracker.i2p.rocks%3A6969%2Fannounce&tr=http%3A%2F%2Ftracker.openbittorrent.com%3A80%2Fannounce
RELEASE a6bbd9affe0c2725c1b7410d66833e24 https://image.nostr.build/4d05ab76baf59089b10a0750deb79ac434b46c4f108396a2d82d7a143fb2b7d9.jpg

2023-12-08 23:12:35

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Current trend is the opposite direction, biggest inward migration of all time in 2023.

2023-12-08 23:10:05

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Brexit was a chaotic move.
It was certainly expensive, but people voted for it in spite of expecting much bigger costs than anything that has actually materialised.
We actually expected an -8% recession.
People still voted for it anyway.
It was a question of jingoism.

2023-12-03 17:57:10

In 2023 the US deficit is 7.5% of GDP.
If you genuinely know what the deficit actually is, this is just an incredible figure.

2023-12-03 17:41:31

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USA is ranked 24th for personal freedom on the 2023 freedom index. Between Italy and Uruguay.
Will probably drop out the top 50 if they put kill switches in cars.

2023-11-30 00:28:02

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Having some grip of information theory is suddenly critical again, a bit like it was in the late 80’s. These are short windows until someone figures it all out and executes it.
Probably ownership and property rights are going to bifurcate a lot of nation states as AI and machines sweep across the economy.
Scandinavia is going to have publicly owned assets and the Anglosphere will have private robo-workforces, whilst Russia will go straight to robo-mercenaries. Who can own AI? Is it legal is it moral? Where is the line? That’s going to be fuzzy and many jurisdictions will have different ideas.
Property rights will be an issue of tension. Then consider taxes and how those are raised? What if I employ 2 million robots but live overseas?
Messy.

2023-11-29 15:01:33

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Yes, if you think about it… words themselves are extremely low bandwidth. So it initially seems human communication is extremely slow.
But combinations of just a fews words is actually an incredibly vast storage space (12 words prove this phenomena).
Sentences (not even paragraphs) have an enormous Shannon number, and therefore sentences are essentially an insanely powerful compression function for communication of the sophisticated abstractions that we each hold in our heads.
LLM’s have undeniably cracked this compression function and also now build their own internal abstractions from these decipherings. LLM’s are also able to communicate their abstractions the other way via the same compression function.
Those 3 capabilities are really impressive and were actually quite simple to reach through mere scaling.
But LLM’s are yet to emulate abstractions of our direct jungle experience. I think ML can do this, as we see with self guided rocket boosters, drones and driverless cars. I think the multimodal LLM’s are now beginning to bridge the two worlds of cyber and jungle. Once they do, the next step is that they can then navigate the jungle by being embodied as robots.
I expect we will see all that in around 10 years. The race is real, still not spoken about much is the fact that it solves demographic taxbase erosion without the need for inward migration for all the major economies and we are already seeing Western politics turning away from the immigration strategy.
You can walk through where this is all heading and the societal choices that populations and powers will face along the way.
But again, I think we will land on highly specialised forests and not monoliths. I think we will see declouding and embodiment and I think we will own local embodied private agents, with the state owning large numbers of their own public agents.
A social protocol of disseminated power will emerge and it will be enforced by the tyranny of majority.
I think society is going to go through a series of radical changes, migration U-turn will be the first, as we are collectively persuaded to collaborate with the interests of our local power centre (political capital).

2023-11-29 12:37:50

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From my own experience scrubbing up the data quality is the secret sauce in all of this, I would take halving the anomalies v’s 25x volume in any training dataset.
But my point above is really about the application of AI. I still think generalisation is a mirage, you want 10^6 specialist models each deployed on 10^3 instances rather than 1 general model deployed 10^9 instances.
You get those specialists via automated data quality ops.
Automate the folks doing the automating.
Build a specialist forest instead of a monolith.
Then you have to workflow the specialists.
Then make it dynamic / self organising.
This is the path.

2023-11-29 12:25:23

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I think agents will have to be owned, or our legal system will fall over pretty quickly.
But law of the jungle (I’m gonna start using this term a lot more), will eventually win out and systems will have to be resilient to operating under jungle law (no law at all).
Local AI, is a lot like the second amendment. It’s a check on unchecked power and I think it will be inevitable that early proliferation will make local AI ubiquitous.
Bitcoin works under jungle law and so does nostr. Permissionless tech is really going to become more necessary, but we are probably 15 years early here? I am often too early on these sort of things.
Super hard to predict this stuff, but it probably pays to have high conviction here and just be in the right place indefinitely and just wait for the right time.

2023-11-29 12:17:24

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It is. I think lots of countries are just run quite differently to what we are used to.
Both China and India are two huge societies that have massive internal population bodies that are basically unseeable from outside.
I know I don’t understand what these societies are like on the inside.
India’s demographic pyramid is also pretty clean and their population has a high fraction of children. Only 5% of Indians are over 60.
Their peak cohort is currently 16, so expect their economy to foom over next 15 years.
With all this in mind, probably makes sense to avert any sort of famine and promote social cohesion. They’re really in the starting blocks.

2023-11-29 11:55:08

OK, this is the most profound forward looking thing that’s occurred to me in the past 6 months.
For 30 years big tech is built on B2C models that leverage the enormous surface of the internet. Build 1 good monetisation channel and just scale it to 10^9 people.
But AI is not like this. Not at all.
AI is a solution to the sprawling complexity of discrete connections that network throughout the entire economy. It is 10^6 monetisation channels each occurring 10^3 instances.
To win this space you need a B2B biz model and you need legendary workflow management.
This makes it much easier to filter out winners and losers over the next 10 years.
I actually think ChatGPT will disappear as it’s a loss leader product and only the OpenAI API will survive, but it will have to compete with a bunch of other API’s and local models.
I think it’s obvious that the end state is local AI. There will be a day when training peaks and then terminally declines as economics is the real law of the jungle.
Chasing diminishing returns is simply not worth the cost. There is no free lunch here.

2023-11-19 21:45:50

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Wealthiest man on Earth doesn’t understand money?

2023-11-19 00:19:08

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Called it.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-18/openai-board-being-pressed-by-some-investors-to-reinstate-altman

2023-11-18 23:18:41

Something like this…
MSFT -> OpenAI:
Attached, letter signed by shareholder quorum for an emergency AGM at 0800 Monday. Agenda below:
Vote of Confidence, Ilya Sutskever
Vote of Confidence, Adam D’Angelo
Vote of Confidence, Tasha McCauley
Vote of Confidence, Helen Toner
Have a great weekend,
Satya

2023-11-18 23:09:40

MSFT 8,617 - 0 Startups
OpenAI in talks with Altman to return as CEO.
https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/18/23967199/breaking-openai-board-in-discussions-with-sam-altman-to-return-as-ceo

2023-11-18 19:34:57

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Running from RAM is the future.

2023-11-18 18:28:35

Watching Science and Technology journalist fumble their way through the past 24 hours is actually pure comedy.
“The inventor of AI has been fired” 😲
“The rocket broke in two and exploded” 🥹
Embarrassing.
News orgs should hire 1 engineer to cover this stuff instead of a brain dead nepobaby. Joke products.

2023-11-18 17:32:58

Has anyone created a text file of all the NIP’s yet, so that I can very quickly / easily pass them to GPT?