Wolfgang Lucht / is on Nostr

⭕ Earth system scientist; in Germany, EU - here not in official capacity. 💫
Verification link: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3398-8575

Last Notes

2024-09-20 12:36:40

The climate demonstration is approaching the German Ministry for the Economy and Climate in downtown Berlin.
Many young people out.
They are by far the majority.
#FridaysForFuture #KlimaStreik
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2024-09-20 12:22:35

The climate protest in downtown Berlin right now is large and full of energy. It is moving from the chancellory through the government district. #FridaysForFuture #KlimaStreik
We will not leave the future to the demagogic deniers.
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2024-09-13 20:43:54

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Good point 🤣👍
Except for the burglary. But they only took the expensive stuff, not the important stuff 😜.

2024-09-13 19:55:37

Since today is Friday the 13th ... the ridiculous seriousness of superstition was brought home to me daily when, in the 1990ies, I lived in an apartment building in Boston, Massachusetts, for several years, while working at Boston University for NASA's Earth observation programme.
The apartment to the left of mine was number 12. The one to the right was number 14. And mine was number 12a. 😂

2024-09-13 09:47:28

Exactly a year ago today, our big update of the Planetary Boundaries Framework was published.
It quantified for the first time all 9 planetary boundaries, showed that 6 of 9 are currently transgressed, some substantially, and redefined and refined a few.
The paper has been downloaded a mind-blowing 473.439 times 💥 since then. That's an unbelievably large number for a scientific paper.
Let's draw the conclusions.
We need to re-stabilise 🌍🌎🌏.
#Sufficiency
[@PIK_climate](https://wisskomm.social/@PIK_climate )
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458
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2024-09-10 17:20:36

I attended a workshop in Berlin today. Right in front of the building, as all across Berlin, and as in cities throughout Germany: three "stumbling stone" memorials, embedded into the pavement, marking where only 80 years ago fellow citizens lived, first oppressed, then deported on a day in March, then killed in Auschwitz.
And we're seriously debating hard right politics as if it were an option? Heaping disdain on migrants because of their plights and hopes?
#BewareTheBeginnings
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2024-08-31 14:40:56

History doesn't repeat itself, but beware:
In the elections of Nov 1932, the Nazis got "only" 33.1% (196 of 584 seats). The communists got 16.9% (100 seats).
But this meant that all other parties, even if they cooperated (which they wouldn't), now lacked a majority.
Right nationalists decided it was now time to then rule with the Nazis - and while doing so, reign them in.
In Jan 1933 Hitler was chancellor. In April state employees had to prove descent. In July all other parties were illegal.

2024-08-09 16:35:35

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Not really, unfortunately.
1.5 is a number, and what's behind it is scary whether we're a bit under or already over ... The path we're on is "well above 2", with 3 still absolutely possible. So we have so much to do, but are dragging out collective feet, still. The planetary boundary for "safe" climate is at 350ppm (about +1 deg), which we passed in 1988. The manifestly dangerous zone starts at 450 ppm (about 2 deg). In between lies unacceptable risk.

2024-08-09 16:13:16

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Here's a Dec 2023 paper discussing it:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03775-z

2024-08-09 16:12:42

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Well, scientifically it's not literally true that we're beyond 1.5. Actually, what "beyond 1.5" is to mean exactly is not even as obvious as it sounds. If it's for a 30-year average, for ex., we'd be able to state it only long after the fact - not very useful. If it includes projections of likelihood, it includes contributions from modeling, not just observations. And what's the baseline?
But it's very true that we're very close. Which is all we need to know.

2024-08-09 14:07:32

#CO2Budgets: "Without such a yard stick we can't know where we stand with current climate policy and can't be negotiated about politically" I am quoted in a new piece by Jörg Staude at @npub1y5j…kva8. He reports on a well-done and useful summary of the role and importance for national climate policy of CO2 budgets, recently published the German Environmental Protection agency UBA.
Article (in German):
https://www.klimareporter.de/erdsystem/uba-papier-sieht-deutschland-nicht-auf-1-5-grad-kurs
UBA's report (in German, pdf):
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/grundlagen-von-co2-budgets
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2024-08-09 14:07:32

2024-08-01 18:47:02

Media not doing their job - another example.
This time the Washington Post: "Antarctic temperatures soar 50 degrees above norm in long-lasting heat wave" (note it's currently winter down there) - with extensive, detailed scientific reasons.
But once more: The article does NOT use, as so many others, the words:
👉 carbon
👉 CO2
👉 emissions
👉 fossil
It speaks about "in a warming world", carefully skirting around the reasons, as if it somehow were a natural thing.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/07/31/antarctica-heat-wave-warming-climate/
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2024-08-01 12:56:44

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"Participants had worse cognitive scores than would be expected on the basis of their sociodemographic characteristics across all cognitive domains tested [...] Depression, anxiety, and fatigue were worse at 2–3 years than at 6 months or 12 months, with evidence of both worsening of existing symptoms and emergence of new symptoms."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(24)00214-1/fulltext
3/3

2024-08-01 12:56:08

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"The cumulative incidence of PASC [long covid] during the first year after SARS-CoV-2 infection decreased over the course of the pandemic, but the risk of PASC remained substantial even among vaccinated persons."
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2403211
"Long COVID can affect multiple organ systems and lead to severe and protracted impairment of function as a result of organ damage. The burden of this disease, both on the individual and on health systems and national economies, is high."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01136-X/abstract

2024-08-01 12:53:15

"Covid cluster worsens in Australian camp".
But Anna Meares, Chef de mission of the Australian team at the #Olympics: "I need to emphasise we’re treating Covid no differently to other bugs like the flu.”
That is the attitude now prevalent in our societies.
But let's have a look at what actual science says. The more time has passed, the more detailed those initial findings become that #covid is not 'just another disease', and that the consequences can be severe.
Let's have a look:👇
1/3

2024-07-31 21:56:20

For many years @npub194d…35f2 was my mentor and colleague. See his statement I boosted below, or here 👇🏻.
https://social.rebellion.global/@ScientistRebellion/112882382231097465

2024-07-31 17:20:54

An article at CNN is entitled "The world is getting so hot and humid, parts of it will be uninhabitable".
The inside headline is: "Heat is testing the limits of human survivability. Here’s how it kills."
It mentions "billions of people will be exposed ... as global warming accelerates".
Words it does NOT contain:
👉 emissions
👉 carbon
👉 CO2
👉 fossil
Such tiptoeing around the causes is widespread these days, I feel - it's a new denial, it's risk-averse complicity.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/29/climate/heat-survivability-health-death-intl/index.html
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