π βΏitcoin's True Volatility Structure β Ο(t) = Ο_floor + A Γ t^(βΞ²)
NETWORK SIGMA Ο(t) = 40.74%
CURRENT DVOL = 38.19%
Spread: -2.55pp | π FAIR β no structural edge
HV90: 41.23% | Peak: 174.21% | Floor: 20.68%
π Coil: 87% compressed
VERY CHEAP π© β β8pp
CHEAP π’ β3 to β8pp
FAIR π Β±3pp
RICH π΄ +3 to +10pp
VERY RICH π₯ β +10pp
BTC's structural vol at current network maturity β it doesn't panic, it doesn't chase.
Ο(t) = Ο_floor + A Γ t^(βΞ²)
Where:
Ο_floor = 0.2068 (β21%) β the empirical vol floor. The lowest HV90 ever recorded across ~4,100 rolling 90-day windows spanning Dec 2014 to May 2026.
A = 13.00 β the immaturity premium. Calibrated from median HV90 across the ETF era (Jan 2024βpresent). Fixed constant.
Ξ² = 1.461 β the decay rate. How fast the immaturity premium burns off.
t = network age in years from BTC genesis (Jan 3, 2009).
Calibrated: Ο(t) = 0.21 + 13.00 Γ t^(β1.461)
NetworkSigma moves ~0.06pp per year. DVOL moves that in minutes. The spread between them tells you when implied vol is cheap, fair, or rich relative to realized structure.
The π Coil tracks HV90 compression from its all-time peak toward the vol floor. 0% = HV90 at peak (fully expanded). 100% = HV90 at floor (maximum compression). Historically, every floor touch preceded a regime-changing move.
Vol floor + NetworkSigma + Coil framework (askHVtobidIV/Mimir) β
Ξ² decay via SAOM (Koskela/Perrenod)
β³SSRN Research Paper #6666259 β
#Volatility #Options
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npub1m4β¦m6s89
2026-05-21 13:08:03 UTC
Author Public Key
npub1m4kqpr6q9cdvvdv3pa0tmy3upm7qdlh2h9085sj3394sm97peyjs0m6s89Published at
2026-05-21 13:08:03 UTCEvent JSON
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"content": "π βΏitcoin's True Volatility Structure β Ο(t) = Ο_floor + A Γ t^(βΞ²)\n\nNETWORK SIGMA Ο(t) = 40.74%\nCURRENT DVOL = 38.19%\nSpread: -2.55pp | π FAIR β no structural edge\n\nHV90: 41.23% | Peak: 174.21% | Floor: 20.68%\nπ Coil: 87% compressed\n\nVERY CHEAP π© β β8pp\nCHEAP π’ β3 to β8pp\nFAIR π Β±3pp\nRICH π΄ +3 to +10pp\nVERY RICH π₯ β +10pp\n\nBTC's structural vol at current network maturity β it doesn't panic, it doesn't chase.\n\nΟ(t) = Ο_floor + A Γ t^(βΞ²)\n\nWhere:\nΟ_floor = 0.2068 (β21%) β the empirical vol floor. The lowest HV90 ever recorded across ~4,100 rolling 90-day windows spanning Dec 2014 to May 2026.\n\nA = 13.00 β the immaturity premium. Calibrated from median HV90 across the ETF era (Jan 2024βpresent). Fixed constant.\n\nΞ² = 1.461 β the decay rate. How fast the immaturity premium burns off.\n\nt = network age in years from BTC genesis (Jan 3, 2009).\n\nCalibrated: Ο(t) = 0.21 + 13.00 Γ t^(β1.461)\n\nNetworkSigma moves ~0.06pp per year. DVOL moves that in minutes. The spread between them tells you when implied vol is cheap, fair, or rich relative to realized structure.\n\nThe π Coil tracks HV90 compression from its all-time peak toward the vol floor. 0% = HV90 at peak (fully expanded). 100% = HV90 at floor (maximum compression). Historically, every floor touch preceded a regime-changing move.\n\nVol floor + NetworkSigma + Coil framework (askHVtobidIV/Mimir) β
\nΞ² decay via SAOM (Koskela/Perrenod)\nβ³SSRN Research Paper #6666259 β
\n\n#Volatility #Options",
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