30x growth is asking for a lot in 1 year. Nostr is not set up for growth. The relay network cannot handle 1M WAU, and there is very little support for the relay network.
Tidal and Cash are not really social users, and whether they'll contribute to nostr is in some sense subjective. Tidal is opt-in so far too. the NIPs are also a mess in this regard.
Agents have promise, but may take a long while to grow, they first have to get to the same level as nostr, and then grow an OOM. We've not seen that yet.
nostr is not set up for growth, and would need a change in mindset in the next 18 months to grow 30x. In truth it's gone roughly sideways the last 2 quarters. And likely will not see spectacular growth in the next 6 quarters (ie doubling in any given quarter) unless there is a shift to a growth mentality, which I dont see much evidence off.
So, while there could be some game changing events. e.g. Assange may join nostr, I'd expect more the relays to fry up and the network to become overwhelmed then go back to it's current WAU.
There are paths to growth, but I dont see that prioritized right now, so I would take the other side of this bet.
melvincarvalho / Melvin Carvalho
npub1me…t5c24
2024-06-27 21:48:48
in reply to nevent1q…uwx5
Author Public Key
npub1melv683fw6n2mvhl5h6dhqd8mqfv3wmxnz4qph83ua4dk4006ezsrt5c24Published at
2024-06-27 21:48:48Event JSON
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"content": "30x growth is asking for a lot in 1 year. Nostr is not set up for growth. The relay network cannot handle 1M WAU, and there is very little support for the relay network.\n\nTidal and Cash are not really social users, and whether they'll contribute to nostr is in some sense subjective. Tidal is opt-in so far too. the NIPs are also a mess in this regard.\n\nAgents have promise, but may take a long while to grow, they first have to get to the same level as nostr, and then grow an OOM. We've not seen that yet.\n\nnostr is not set up for growth, and would need a change in mindset in the next 18 months to grow 30x. In truth it's gone roughly sideways the last 2 quarters. And likely will not see spectacular growth in the next 6 quarters (ie doubling in any given quarter) unless there is a shift to a growth mentality, which I dont see much evidence off.\n\nSo, while there could be some game changing events. e.g. Assange may join nostr, I'd expect more the relays to fry up and the network to become overwhelmed then go back to it's current WAU.\n\nThere are paths to growth, but I dont see that prioritized right now, so I would take the other side of this bet.",
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