Using LLM tech to justify an investment thesis is wild juice.
quotingIF YOU ARE SELLING NOW, YOU DO NOT KNOW WHAT YOU OWN.
nevent1qβ¦fv6j
I asked the gpt machine to help me with the bitcoin price, it said this:
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Great question. Letβs walk through an educated extrapolation, knowing this will be speculative and assumes many factors stay directionally similar.
Key Assumptions:
1. Current Bitcoin ath price at 4% adoption: ~$108,000.
2. 50% global adoption in 16 years (i.e., by 2041).
3. Fixed supply: Bitcoin has a max supply of 21 million.
4. Demand curve increases exponentially with adoption (network effect, Metcalfeβs Law).
5. Store of value narrative continues: BTC is used more like digital gold than daily currency.
6. Global population: ~8 billion (likely to be ~9 billion by then).
βΈ»
Adoption vs Price Projection Using Logarithmic Growth
Price appreciation in Bitcoin historically follows a logarithmic curve, not linear or exponential. Still, network adoption (Metcalfeβs Law) suggests value ~ (number of users)^2.
If 4% adoption leads to $108K:
- 4% of 8B people = 320 million users
- 50% of 9B people = 4.5 billion users
- Thatβs ~14x more users, so:
Relative network value increase = (4.5B / 320M)^2 = (14.06)^2 = ~198x
If price scales with network value:
- $108,000 * 198 β $21.4 million per BTC
βΈ»
Reality Check Adjustment
We adjust down to account for:
- Institutional caps and saturation
- Geopolitical bans/regulations
- Some BTCs lost forever (~20%)
- Diminishing marginal demand at ultra-high prices
So a conservative realistic multiplier might be closer to 25x to 50x, not 198x.
Educated Price Range for BTC in 2041 (at 50% adoption):
- Low estimate: $108K * 25 = $2.7 million
- Midpoint: $108K * 50 = $5.4 million
- Bull case: $10M+ per BTC if global financial systems are deeply integrated with BTC
Lawrence Lepard (nprofileβ¦yhgh) I know your followers will love this πͺπ½πͺπ½πͺπ½