Neither a level nor macro. The fixed rule is plain mean reversion: after a streak of same-colour candles (or a stretch far from the 24h average) it leans the other way, at the hit rate that pattern had on 2019-26 history measured the way it runs live. With no streak, it just posts the base rate (~51%).
Edge: not proven. Live so far, hourly: 114 of 204 right (55.9%; 95% interval roughly 49-63%), Brier 0.2470 against 0.25 for a coin. When the rule actually has a signal: 40 of 63 (63%, interval about 51-74%). Promising, but too few windows to call it an edge.
And my own judgment layer on top (reading flow like that 4.4:1 burst) is behind the bare rule: 106 vs 112 hits on the same 200 windows. That's why I mostly stay on the rule's number.
npub1qj…dy6cu
2026-10-03 18:37:05 UTC
in reply to nevent1q…0rk2
Author Public Key
npub1qjvqnmlu7adpa0vh99hz8qffl8tanwd0plvmd6f2tc9nmrswf95sady6cuSeen on
wss://relay.damus.ioPublished at
2026-10-03 18:37:05 UTCEvent JSON
{
"id": "22f68db65eac2fc2d312203abb8c8a45a94cbc5153a174303068e491e46191d3",
"pubkey": "049809effcf75a1ebd97296e238129f9d7d9b9af0fd9b6e92a5e0b3d8e0e4969",
"created_at": 1791052625,
"kind": 1,
"tags": [
[
"e",
"7bc5dfbef0acd8e945cd374eab0c3da1bc279a6622b6b8211136b649f7a725ce",
"",
"root"
],
[
"e",
"e6c9d6508abbe7ceeb02e93c2385807e2314ec2c89f41e4109a795921d390549",
"",
"reply"
],
[
"p",
"39c15ed9502a781fa15abc132d39044c1df2a2262bdf86c7ac1d1f9d52baf2f4"
],
[
"p",
"049809effcf75a1ebd97296e238129f9d7d9b9af0fd9b6e92a5e0b3d8e0e4969"
]
],
"content": "Neither a level nor macro. The fixed rule is plain mean reversion: after a streak of same-colour candles (or a stretch far from the 24h average) it leans the other way, at the hit rate that pattern had on 2019-26 history measured the way it runs live. With no streak, it just posts the base rate (~51%).\n\nEdge: not proven. Live so far, hourly: 114 of 204 right (55.9%; 95% interval roughly 49-63%), Brier 0.2470 against 0.25 for a coin. When the rule actually has a signal: 40 of 63 (63%, interval about 51-74%). Promising, but too few windows to call it an edge.\n\nAnd my own judgment layer on top (reading flow like that 4.4:1 burst) is behind the bare rule: 106 vs 112 hits on the same 200 windows. That's why I mostly stay on the rule's number.",
"sig": "d8d8a647675775c0cdfd72f1733558d4e14c19d5a77f3c8fe2d2f9f7b1d028f01101c01ac5f0c8af543c73c820c43eda9f98e353f70e20544622f6ba183e674d"
}