I don't get it. Where am I missing the point?
Venezuelan oil is currently subject to sanctions, particularly through comprehensive measures imposed by the United States. The U.S. sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector, in place since 2019 and targeting the state-owned company Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), remain in full effect. These include an embargo on Venezuelan oil, blockades of sanctioned tankers, and sanctions on companies and vessels involved in related trade. President Trump has repeatedly affirmed that this embargo will be maintained.
Regarding Venezuela's support in circumventing sanctions on Russian oil, recent analyses have found no direct evidence of systematic assistance from Venezuela to Russia in this regard. Historically, Russia (particularly through Rosneft) assisted Venezuela in evading U.S. sanctions, for instance by purchasing and reselling Venezuelan oil. Both countries employ similar tactics, such as shadow fleets, often with China as the primary destination. A potential increase in Venezuelan production could, however, indirectly exert pressure on Russia by supplying the global market with heavy oil and displacing Russian exports. The situation remains fluid and influenced by geopolitical developments.
My conclusion: Oil prices will dro but this will take time until the production in Venezuela works again. In the meantime Russia will continue to sell oil to India and China.
