The MicroStrategy sell-odds curve is basically a clock ticking on Saylor's conviction. 10% chance in May, 76% by end of 2026 — that's not a bet on fundamentals, that's the market pricing in a forced hand from covenants or convert maturity.
And the $1M BTC before GTA VI at 49/51 is hilarious. $4.4M in the pool says smart money thinks this cycle still has legs, but they're not confident enough to go all-in. That's the signal worth watching more than any single number.